Twin's strength is to be maximally fluid with regards to your game plan. Discard wants you to pick a game plan right now and stick to it. It also forces both player into topdeck mode, which is something Twin would rather not do. Discard's strength is that it can protect your combo from Abrupt Decay. It's up to you whether that trade off is worth it.
I run two Catacomb and three Sulfur Falls in my list and they're fantastic. Drowned Catacomb lets you open on Steam Vents for Bolt/Visions and still be able to Terminate on two without taking extra damage from shock lands.
I run 9 fetch, 4 shock, 4 basic (no mountain), 5 check, and a Tectonic Edge for my mana base. I would gladly draw nothing but fetches and check lands if I could, so I cut down to the bare minimum of shocks/basics needed to have something to actually fetch. This configuration easily casts Terminate on turn two, letting me run three copies, all thanks to Drowned Catacomb.
If you're playing red and fetch a basic on turn 2, your opponent is going to play around Blood Moon for the rest of the match. I don't like Moon in my version because I'm greedier than most with my colored lands.
I've only ever used five combo creatures so I can't say as to the difference in comboing out. I can say I wouldn't mind having another Pestermite to help with the backup beatdown plan.
Thanks for reading it all!
Some answers for you:
1. Terminates are great. I played a Dismember in my last PPTQ instead of the third and I found myself paying more life for that than I ever did for Terminate. I tend to fetch a tapped shock on turn 1 most games unless I know what I'm playing against, so between fetching basics and my 5 buddy lands, it's trivial to cast Terminate on turn 2 without taking extraneous pain. I intentionally built my manabase to support early Terminates at the cost of being slightly more vulnerable to Blood Moon.
2. I'm torn. She's much better against Abzan midrange than Jund, but she has applications in a ton of different matchups. My Collected Company opponent scooped on the spot to my Olivia in g2, and she's randomly good against Affinity, Tron, or Infect. I wouldn't fault anyone for not running her, but I've been satisfied. She was better than the Sower.
3. The only time I bring in all five counterspells is against other blue decks. I've actually been thinking about finding room for a third Dispel but that would probably go maindeck. Otherwise, being able to pick and choose which counters and how many post board is a key part to keeping my opponents off balance. They all have different roles to play and they're all the best at what they do. Part of this might be my playstyle though. I converted from Grixis Delver, so I'm fairly comfortable with the idea of sticking a threat and countering anything that can stop it. Most people run a few discard spells instead, which I dislike because this deck is all about being fluid and finding which gameplan your opponent is not prepared for and discard spells demand that you formulate a plan right now and stick to it. Rather than keeping options open, it tends to force both players into topdeck situations. It's not where I want to be.
3b. I mentioned in my write up that I would like to find room for a Spellskite or two. I simply didn't own any and didn't appreciate the work they do. I would probably cut the second Explosives and the Sower for 2.
The Sower of Temptation was supposed to be a Grave Titan (specifically for the GBx matchups) but the dealer didn't have one so I added a Sower mostly at random before the tournament. I'll talk more about the list after the matches.
Round 1: Jund (2-0)
I got paired against a friend of mine for this round. He's been a staunch proponent of Abzan midrange in Modern and we had been talking on Facebook about the Twin vs Abzan matchup being really bad for me. I joked that my plan for the matchup was to dodge it completely and here I was playing against the only Abzan player in the room in round 1. Imagine my relief when he went turn 1 Bloodstained Mire into Stomping Ground. This ended up being a bizarre game. He got stuck on four lands for several turns while I proceeded to flood out. He was paranoid about dying instantly if he ever tapped out so he never played any threats but killed everything I played immediately. I play a Tasigur and get an activation out of it before it dies, then later Kolaghan's Command it back and get another activation before it dies again. On the last turn, he knows my hand is Splinter Twin, Splinter Twin, unknown and he has six mana available. He casts Thoughtseize so I flash in Snapcaster Mage (the first one I had drawn in a really long game) and targeted Kolaghan's Command but don't use it yet. He's forced to take a Splinter Twin. He then thinks a little bit and then taps out for Olivia Voldaren. At EOT I flashback Kolaghan's Command, getting back the Deceiver Exarch in my yard. It turns out he had forgotten about the Exarch because it was only in the yard because of a Tasigur activation. I had never actually cast it.
I shuffle in my sideboard so I'm not 100% certain of my board for this match, but I think I took out all 9 combo pieces and brought in 2 Explosives, Keranos, Olivia, Sower, Clique, Spell Snare, Murderous Cut, and 1 Negate.
In Game 2, I'm the one who is shy on lands but I have plenty of interaction with multiple Snapcasters, Vendilion Clique, and Bolts. He Thoughtseizes me early and takes a Terminate over Tasigur. He then follows up with a Tarmogoyf, but since neither one of us has cracked a fetchland yet, I'm able to bolt it. He has another Tarmogoyf and then Liliana, but I'm able to kill Liliana with Vendilion Clique while taking shots from the Goyf. The Clique shows me that his last two cards are Abrupt Decay and Terminate. I make him bottom the Terminate and then I'm immediately punished by drawing Spell Snare. For some reason, I elect to mainphase Bolt Snap Bolt the Goyf, which allows him to use Kolghan's Command to get it back on my turn. He elects to kill the Snapcaster with the Command instead of the Clique, which I think might be a faulty memory but I do remember the Clique being alive at the end of the game. He then recasts the Goyf, but I snag it with Spell Snare and then drop Tasigur. He's unable to come back from the beats.
Round 2: Jund (0-2)
In game 1 I keep a loose hand of Steam Vents, Sulfur Falls, Island, Remand, Snapcaster Mage, Vendilion Clique, Terminate on the draw against an unknown opponent. I think the hand would have been fine on the play but it's too slow on the draw. On his first turn he plays a fetchland, says "I hope you're not burn" and proceeds to take 5 to Thoughtseize me. He takes the Terminate, but it's immaterial as I manage to draw 3 more black spells and zero black lands and get my face beaten in by Tarmogoyf.
I do the same board plan as the last round, except I left in a Pestermite and left out a Negate. After I presented, it occurred to me that he had never seen a combo piece so he probably thought I was on Grixis Control, and thus could have left the combo in. I resolved to switch back to the combo if I won this game.
In game 2, I'm a little land shy to start. I get an early Tasigur to stick, but he chumps with Fulminator Mage and kills a Steam Vents, leaving me with Steam Vents, Swamp, Tectonic Edge as my only mana. He plays Liliana on his turn and forces me to sacrifice Tasigur. He's done a lot of damage to himself this game with his lands and Thoughtseizes, so he's already down to 11 and I have Bolt, Bolt, KCommand in hand so I ignore Liliana with the plan to burn him out. I draw a Polluted Delta, play it, and pass. On his turn, he taps out for Huntmaster of the Fells. What I should have done is realize that the fight is no longer about his life total and I should switch into attrition mode (I have a Keranos in hand that would take the game over given time) and Bolted Liliana with the Huntmaster on the stack. What I end up doing is Remanding the Huntmaster, which allows him to activate Liliana to get another card. I have the choice between Keranos and Cryptic Command (or any of the burn spells) but I screw up again. I'm thinking that I can eot fetch for Steam Vents, Bolt Liliana, and then if I draw a blue source I'll have Cryptic up, so I pitch Keranos. When I go to crack the Delta, I realize that I took both the third Steam Vents and the basic Mountain out of my deck so I'm forced to shock Blood Crypt into play to Bolt Liliana, and then I get ground out by Huntmaster + his own Kolaghan's Command to get it back. If I had Bolted Liliana with the Huntmaster on the stack OR pitched the Cryptic to her ability, I think I would have been in good shape to win this game. Between the extra wolf token and the 2 damage from the Blood Crypt, he's able to take me to 3 life the turn before I stabilize and Bolt me out.
Round 3: Scapeshift (2-0)
I have to mulligan to 6 on the draw, but the only cards I play on the first three turns are Steam Vents, Sulfur Falls, Watery Grave so he thinks I'm Grixis Control and taps out turn 4 for a ramp spell. I have the Exarch, Twin, and the fourth land in hand.
I sideboard out all my Bolts and two Terminates to bring in the five counterspells and second Clique. I leave a miser's Terminate in in case he has random creatures. In hindsight, this was a poor plan but it didn't cost me. What I should have done was taken out a bolt, both KCommands, and all Terminates. While we were boarding, he's telling his friend about how great this matchup is for him and how happy he is to be playing it. I don't understand why he feels that way, but I'm glad he's overconfident.
In game 2, he's severely mana flooded while I'm relatively mana light. I'm stuck on four lands but I have double Negate in hand so I'm feeling fairly safe. He's plinking away at me with a Sakura-Tribe Elder while I'm plinking away back with a Deceiever Exarch. I eventually draw my fifth land and can play a Tasigur for B which lands uncontested. Tasigur's first activation gives me a Dispel out of an empty graveyard, so I'm way ahead. However, he has two Valakuts in play and has managed to get them active. His sixth mountain takes out my Exarch, while on the next two turns he sends the triggers to my face. He goes for Scapeshift, which I Negate and then Negate again when he Dispels my Negate. I'm at 7 and he's at 11 at this point. I untap, knock him down to 7, and on his turn he uses two more triggers to knock me to 1. I EOT flash in Exarch+Snapcaster to hit him for exactly lethal while at 1 life. After the game, I point out that if he had just killed Tasigur, he probably wins that game. He counters with if he had shot Tasigur before the Exarch, he would have had no way to stop the Twin combo (which he had no way to stop and I had in hand, but I had no way of knowing he couldn't stop it and if he could stop it, he'd have a window to combo me back). I told him that killing the Exarch first was fine, but there's no reason his second batch of triggers couldn't have killed the Tasigur instead of trying to race.
Round 4: Burn (1-2)
I finally win a die roll and combo kill him on turn four before he can turn four kill me back.
I board out Remands and Anticipates for counterspells and Murderous Cut.
He starts out aggressive in game two but I'm able to stabilize with removal and turn 3 Tasigur. He manages to get me to 4 life before I can start countering burn spells, but my Tasigur is forced to stay at home to block his Goblin Guide. I eventually cast Deceiver Exarch, which gets Rending Volleyed immediately. I look at my six lands in play, 2 counterpslls, Snapcaster, and Murderous Cut in my hand, shrug, and send Tasigur in to begin the beats the hard way. On his turn, he casts 2 more Goblin Guides and swings. I Cut one and cast Snapcaster, but then I realize I don't have the second black source to flashback Cut, so I target Spell Snare. He has the second Rending Volley to kill Snapcaster and deals me exactly 4 with Goblin Guide. If I had waited one more turn to fetch Watery Grave to have the second black up, I think I win that game because I have 2 more counterspells in hand.
In game 3, I mulligan to five on the play and he has double Eidolon. I lose quickly.
Round 5: Abzan Collected Company (2-0)
He wins the die roll for game 1, thinks I'm playing Grixis control, taps out on turn 4, and dies for it.
I sideboard both Angers, Olivia, both Dispels, and the Clique. I took out Remands but I don't remember what else. I wasn't sure how to board this matchup, but I was sure it didn't matter because their deck just doesn't do anything when I kill literally everything he plays and have infinite damage to counter his infinite life.
He keeps a super slow hand off of a mulligan and I'm content to kill a random guy a turn. Eventually I Clique him and he shows me Murderous Recap, Collected Company, and Chord of Calling (he Abrupt Decays the Clique with the trigger on the stack instead of casting CoCo.) Since I have Dispel in hand for Company, he only have four lands in play so Chord doesn't do anything, and my only route to victory in sight is Snapcaster beats, I bottom the Recap. On my turn, I snap Serum Visions, he casts Company, I Snap Dispel, and he's out of gas. Naturally with zero creatures on his side and two Snapcasters on mine, my first draw is Anger of the Gods. He doesn't do anything relevant before I finish him off with creature beats.
Round 6: Jeskai control (2-0)
Game 1 was weird. He gets stuck on lands for awhile, so I Tectonic Edge a Steam Vents as soon as he gets to four lands and then use Cryptic Command to bounce Celestial Colonnade when he gets to six. We both have draws heavy with Snapcasters and Remands, so whenever either of us cast a Snapcaster, the other person would Remand whatever got flashed back. I'm not really doing much but making land drops, so he's throwing burn at my face. I eventually start countering burn spells when I hit 7 life. I have a Tasigur in play getting card advantage and beating down, but my only cards in hand are Splinter Twins so I eventually have to Twin up a Snapcaster Mage just to get value out of them. I end up grinding him out with Tasigur + Twinned Snapcaster.
I board out Bolts and two Terminates for the five counterspells and Vendilion Clique. I leave a miser's Terminate in just in case he has something stupid like Baneslayer Angel. Hey, it's happened before.
I don't remember much of this game except he keeps Electrolyzing my face while I'm beating him down with a pair of Exarchs. I Vendilion Clique him at one point (which dies with the trigger on the stack) and see Bolt, Celestial Purge, Celestial Purge, which I let him keep them all. I then KCommand the Clique back and target me (it dies with the trigger on the stack) to cycle out a Remand. He activates a Celestial Colonnade at some point, which I Tectonic Edge. He Paths an Exarch but is tapped out so I combo off with the other one.
Notes on the list:
Tectonic Edge in the mana base over Desolate Lighthouse was the correct call. I never had time to activate Lighthouse if it had been one, but killing manlands was relevant all day. That said, I'd probably swap it for a Ghost Quarter or even cut it entirely for another black source. I lost a couple games during the day because I didn't have enough black mana. Drowned Catacombs were fantastic. Having 5 check lands made casting Terminate on turn 2 easy and painless.
The Anticipates were solid. I would prefer to have Ponder or Preordain, obviously, but they fulfilled their function well. In testing, I treated these as a split card Thought Scour/Anticipate and the overwhelming majority of the time, I preferred the actual selection of Anticipate to the cheapness and graveyard synergy of Thought Scour. Twin's gameplan is so fluid that it helps to have cantrips that are similarly flexible. However, if I was going to make any changes, this slot is the first I'd make cuts to.
The 1/1 Split on Cryptic Command and Spell Snare was intentional. I love drawing the first copies of these cards but I rarely want to draw multiples. The second Snare is in the board for Jund, Burn, Affinity, and other Snapcaster decks. Cryptic is just too slow in this deck to chance drawing multiples.
I brought the second Vendilion Clique in every round except burn but I'm not sure if I would want to maindeck the second copy. There are a lot of matches where I don't want it at all.
I wouldn't mind a second Pestermite to help with the backup beatdown plan. Either the fourth Exarch or the second Anticipate would be the cut.
I could see going down to three Twins but I value the ability to randomly kill people on turn four more than I value not drawing multiples. Modern is just too fast and too open to not have the brute force method available.
The sideboard mostly worked out. I used every card but the Vandalblast at some point (never faced Affinity but plenty were present). I never actually drew the Sower but I don't like it in theory. I added it mostly at random at the last second. I could see cutting the Sower and the second Engineered Explosives for something like Spellskite.
After saying all that, I'd like to wrap up by saying that I think the deck is a great choice for the PPTQ metagame. It's powerful, proactive, and flexible enough to handle any matchup and it greatly rewards play skill and experience. Every game I lost, I can point to exactly where I lost it and what I could have done differently to turn it into a win. If you're still here, thanks for reading.
14 creatures is plenty, especially considering that we'll almost always have access to Anafenza. We don't need or want to have a swarm of creatures since all of our non-utility guys are big enough to win the game on their own. Treetop and Wildwood also go a long way towards upping the creature count. I don't care for Kitchen Finks in the maindeck because I think it's too low impact in too many matchups, but I do run one in the sideboard. My maindeck source of lifegain is Sword of War and Peace.
One more thing about Gavony Township. It gets a lot worse without mana dorks to pump. The reason Township was so good in Pod decks is because they could sit a bunch of mana guys in play and Township would eventually make them lethal. Township never caught on in the regular Abzan midrange decks though because that deck never had enough creatures in play at a time to be worth spending 5 mana to pump. It's overkill, unnecessary, and a waste of mana to put a counter on one or two guys that are already big. I'd rather spend that mana on actual cards or activating manlands.
Your updated skeleton looks good. Thalia might be more of a hindrance than a help now that you're more spell heavy, but the rest of it looks rock solid. I'll run down some additional card choices and touch on the mana base.
I completely overlooked Eternal Witness in the 3-drop slot. She's still worth running because she doesn't compete with Anafenza for our turn 3.
I'm running a lot more spot removal than you are. I don't mind running extra spot removal because most decks win through their commander so there's almost always going to be a target. On top of what you have, I'm also running Disfigure, Council's Judgment, Profane Command, and Maelstrom Pulse. Pulse and Judgment are extra disenchants that are never dead, Command is a sweet 2 for 1 that also doubles as a fireball, and Disfigure is just cheap tempo. Darkblast also might be a reasonable inclusion if you're in the right meta. I'd imagine it's pretty good against elf tribal. Vindicate is another potential inclusion and could lead to a mana denial subtheme.
As far as creatures go, I've found Putrid Leech to be one of the best beaters we have access to. The only thing that's bigger than it is Goyf and the extra life the format gives us makes it easy to pump. Heir of the Wilds is also reasonable since our general turns on ferocious. I've been trying out Rakshasa Deathdealer and Warden of the First Tree as late game mana sinks that are still reasonable early. The jury is still out on them but I like them so far.
For general utility spells, I'd recommend Sylvan Library and Green Sun's Zenith. GSZ has reasonable utility as a Disenchant/Regrowth/Tarmogoyf hybrid and can make certain sideboard cards better. Sylvan Library is just good fun. Gerrard's Verdict is good if you want another discard spell. I've seen other builds run more tutors, like Chord of Calling and Worldly Tutor, so you could go that route if you wish. I'd rather play more standalone threats but it's reasonable to try for something like the Melira combo.
Right now, I'm running a 6 fetch/3 dual/3 shock/3 basic/4 utility lands setup (Command Tower, Treetop Village, Stirring Wildwood, Wasteland). I've been thinking about cutting the shocks altogether. Before I had duals in the deck, I ran perfectly fine on fetches, shocks, and basics, so now that I have the real duals there should theoretically be no need for shocklands. If I'm fetching, I'm finding a dual, and if I have all duals in play I'll probably be fine getting a basic instead of a shockland. However, I'm not certain what I would replace the shocks with. Reflecting Pool would be one of them but the other two slots are up in the air. I don't want more colorless lands because so many of my cards have zero colorless mana in their casting costs. Wasteland is awkward enough; I certainly never want to draw double colorless lands. Gavony Township seems okay but our guys should be larger than the average opponent's guys and we have Anafenza to pump them more, so I don't think Township is where I want to be. 7-8 fetch + Urborg seems reasonable as well to maximize DRS and KotR. I definitely want 19 land because even though the curve stops at 3 mana, I've built my deck in such a way that my cards scale very well with excess mana. Even something as simple as casting a spell and activating Treetop requires 4-5 land in play. Okina, Temple to the Grandfathers and Eiganjo Castle seem like they would have reasonable effects.
As far as your local meta is concerned, I think that by adopting extra versatile removal spells into your main, a leaner curve, and more pressure, you'll see siginificant improvements in your match against Ezuri and Sydri. Anafenza's secondary ability naturally trumps Alesha's and Grenzo's entire strategies, and copious removal helps trump Skullbriar. If you're having problems with mill, I'd recommend running both Gaea's Blessing and Krosan Reclamation (for if/when you draw the Blessing) to your sideboard, but I'd think discard + a strong clock would be enough.
Cut the mana dorks. They're dead draws past turn 1 and you don't care about the acceleration. DRS and Green Sun's Zenith for Dryad Arbor are the only ones worth running. I would also cut all of your 3 drop creatures other than KotR. They're all worse than just casting Anafenza on 3. You want all your creatures to be one or two mana so you can curve out. Tidehollow Sculler replaces Sin Collector, Qasali Pridemage replaces Reclamation Sage, spot removal replaces Banisher Priest, and so on. The main strength of Anafenza is the sheer amount of pressure turn 1 discard, turn 2 creature, turn 3 Anafenza, turn 4 removal puts on your opponent.
Pernicious Deed is another excellent main deck sweeper that also takes care of Thopter Foundry and all the tokens.
I would also recommend picking up Treetop Village and Stirring Wildwood for your mana base. They hit hard and are good at closing out the game.
I find Sword of War and Peace to be superior to Feast and Famine. I only want two swords and would prefer to have one grindy sword and one offensive sword. Fire and Ice is my preferred grindy sword. The only thing F+F had going for it is a good set of protections but I would rather shock and draw than discard and untap.
I forgot to mention this, but manlands are huge for Anafenza. Treetop Village is by far the best, but Stirring Wildwood has also been reasonable. My version of the deck runs too many spells that don't have colorless symbols in their mana costs so I stay away from Mutavualt. The only colorless land I run in my build is Tectonic Edge (eventually upgrading into Wasteland) and that can cause some seriously awkward draws. I think if I were to run a second colorless land, Gavony Township would be my next choice.
I'm not sure how hard you want to lean on the general as most decks are going to have removal for your first couple of plays. I was thinking this deck should probably lean towards a GW creature base with B added for removal, so that you focus on getting GW up early on and then add the B as the last piece. I think that means you keep Liliana, but you probably drop things like hymn to tourach and vampire nighthawk just to smooth the mana.
I was merely pointing out that in something like 90% of games, Anafenza is our turn 3 play, so all 3cc spells need to be pretty damn good otherwise they're just getting in the way of our curve. I would agree with the focus on GW with a splash of B with the caveat that the better your manabase becomes, the less you have to pay attention to colored mana symbols. It would be easy to substitute something like Gerrard's Verdict for Hymn to Tourach and Kitchen Finks is an order of magnitude better than Vampire Nighthawk (although I'd be tempted to run Seeker of the Way over either if I really wanted life gain, strictly for curve purposes).
Turn 1: 1 drop or discard
Turn 2: 2 drop
Turn 3: Anafenza
Turn 4: Removal + 2 drop.
This leads us to some conclusions. The most obvious one is that Anafenza is always our turn 3, which means any 3cc creatures we run either have to be better than Anafenza, or useful past turn 3. The only 3 drop creatures I run in my deck are Knight of the Reliquary and Eternal Witness. You do not want to have cards that are only beaters in your three drop slot. They just get in the way and throw off your curve. You want your primary beaters to be 2 drops so that they curve naturally into Anafenza, then 2cc removal and a second 2 drop on turn 4. The ones I currently use are Scavenging Ooze, Heir of the Wilds, Putrid Leech, Tidehollow Sculler, Qasali Pridmage, Fleecemane Lion, and Stoneforge Mystic. Putrid Leech is the biggest 2 drop we have access to, excluding Tarmogoyf. SFM gives us a beautiful curve of Anafenza into activate+equip and even picks up the bonus counter in the process. Rakshasa Deathdealer is another cheap option. I tried Pack Rat out but I didn't like it. Making a rat on turn 3 was almost always worse than just casting Anafenza and I think Rats are simply too slow for this format.
I found Toxic Deluge to be the perfect sweeper for this deck because it's easy to cast it for 2 life and have all our guys survive. I'm also running a copy of Pernicious Deed in the main as a catchall that works well at 2 with Anafenza.
I don't like Aether Vial in this deck because we get little benefit from the flash, it's only good on turn one, and by the time Aether Vial could drop our creatures out, we could have just cast them and been swinging.
I would stay away from anything that synergizes with +1/+1 counters because if we have enough creatures in play that the benefit matters, we're probably already winning, and those creatures don't do anything at all by themselves. We're more interested in standalone threats and removal than synergy.
Profane Command has been a pretty solid spell for me. I usually cast it for 4, killing a guy and returning one of mine. Ajani, Caller of the Pride is something I'm testing out for now. He can put out a ton of damage by flinging Anafenza into the air, but I'll probably replace him with Liliana when I can pick one up. He gets much better if you do decide you want to run a +1/+1 counter theme.
The fact that Prossh is even being considered for banning is completely baffling to me.
Where is this "fact" stated?
Sheldon posted an article a couple weeks ago that was an interview with Prossh. He brought up that some people want Prossh banned in that article. It would be easily dismissed if it was any random person saying it, but having the face of the format use Prossh's power level as the driving force behind three of his last four articles raises some red flags.
On topic: Yes, every Jund deck is better with Prossh as the general in the same way that every RUG deck is better with Maelstrom Wanderer as the general. He's a powerful creature that lines up perfectly with what the colors want to do in a way that no other legend in his colors can match. It's more of a testament to the fact that the alternatives are so lackluster than to anything Prossh does himself.
The fact that Prossh is even being considered for banning is completely baffling to me. Arcum, Azami, Zur, Sharuum, etc, have all been around for years with the potential to combo kill anyone very quickly if the pilot so desires and the response to that was to either not play the combos in the decks or to not play those generals. The social contract took care of those problems. How is Prossh different? Yes, he can general kill one person at a time in an efficient manner. Rafiq can kill a player on turn 4 with a signet and anything that gives +7/+7 (of which there are a lot). Nobody is clamoring to ban Rafiq.
There are 4 banned generals in Commander. 2 of them (Erayo and Braids) directly prevent players from playing the game. Rofellos generates an absurd amount of resources starting on turn 3 every game. Prossh does neither of these things. He can combo with a variety of cards, but so can multiple other generals and they're in no danger of getting banned. The whole idea behind this format is to let the social contract take care of situations like this so that the banned list isn't arm-length. So let it do its work.
I run 9 fetch, 4 shock, 4 basic (no mountain), 5 check, and a Tectonic Edge for my mana base. I would gladly draw nothing but fetches and check lands if I could, so I cut down to the bare minimum of shocks/basics needed to have something to actually fetch. This configuration easily casts Terminate on turn two, letting me run three copies, all thanks to Drowned Catacomb.
Some answers for you:
1. Terminates are great. I played a Dismember in my last PPTQ instead of the third and I found myself paying more life for that than I ever did for Terminate. I tend to fetch a tapped shock on turn 1 most games unless I know what I'm playing against, so between fetching basics and my 5 buddy lands, it's trivial to cast Terminate on turn 2 without taking extraneous pain. I intentionally built my manabase to support early Terminates at the cost of being slightly more vulnerable to Blood Moon.
2. I'm torn. She's much better against Abzan midrange than Jund, but she has applications in a ton of different matchups. My Collected Company opponent scooped on the spot to my Olivia in g2, and she's randomly good against Affinity, Tron, or Infect. I wouldn't fault anyone for not running her, but I've been satisfied. She was better than the Sower.
3. The only time I bring in all five counterspells is against other blue decks. I've actually been thinking about finding room for a third Dispel but that would probably go maindeck. Otherwise, being able to pick and choose which counters and how many post board is a key part to keeping my opponents off balance. They all have different roles to play and they're all the best at what they do. Part of this might be my playstyle though. I converted from Grixis Delver, so I'm fairly comfortable with the idea of sticking a threat and countering anything that can stop it. Most people run a few discard spells instead, which I dislike because this deck is all about being fluid and finding which gameplan your opponent is not prepared for and discard spells demand that you formulate a plan right now and stick to it. Rather than keeping options open, it tends to force both players into topdeck situations. It's not where I want to be.
3b. I mentioned in my write up that I would like to find room for a Spellskite or two. I simply didn't own any and didn't appreciate the work they do. I would probably cut the second Explosives and the Sower for 2.
I got 14th in a 56 PPTQ yesterday with Grixis Twin. This is the list I ran.
4 Deceiever Exarch
1 Pestermite
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Vendilion Clique
4 Splinter Twin
4 Serum Visions
2 Anticipate
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Terminate
2 Kolaghan's Command
4 Remand
1 Spell Snare
1 Cryptic Command
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Bloodstained Mire
2 Steam Vents
1 Blood Crypt
1 Watery Grave
3 Island
1 Swamp
3 Sulfur Falls
2 Drowned Catacomb
1 Tectonic Edge
2 Engineered Explosives
1 Keranos, God of Storms
1 Olivia Voldaren
1 Sower of Temptation
1 Vendilion Clique
2 Dispel
2 Negate
1 Spell Snare
1 Murderous Cut
2 Anger of the Gods
1 Vandalblast
The Sower of Temptation was supposed to be a Grave Titan (specifically for the GBx matchups) but the dealer didn't have one so I added a Sower mostly at random before the tournament. I'll talk more about the list after the matches.
Round 1: Jund (2-0)
I got paired against a friend of mine for this round. He's been a staunch proponent of Abzan midrange in Modern and we had been talking on Facebook about the Twin vs Abzan matchup being really bad for me. I joked that my plan for the matchup was to dodge it completely and here I was playing against the only Abzan player in the room in round 1. Imagine my relief when he went turn 1 Bloodstained Mire into Stomping Ground. This ended up being a bizarre game. He got stuck on four lands for several turns while I proceeded to flood out. He was paranoid about dying instantly if he ever tapped out so he never played any threats but killed everything I played immediately. I play a Tasigur and get an activation out of it before it dies, then later Kolaghan's Command it back and get another activation before it dies again. On the last turn, he knows my hand is Splinter Twin, Splinter Twin, unknown and he has six mana available. He casts Thoughtseize so I flash in Snapcaster Mage (the first one I had drawn in a really long game) and targeted Kolaghan's Command but don't use it yet. He's forced to take a Splinter Twin. He then thinks a little bit and then taps out for Olivia Voldaren. At EOT I flashback Kolaghan's Command, getting back the Deceiver Exarch in my yard. It turns out he had forgotten about the Exarch because it was only in the yard because of a Tasigur activation. I had never actually cast it.
I shuffle in my sideboard so I'm not 100% certain of my board for this match, but I think I took out all 9 combo pieces and brought in 2 Explosives, Keranos, Olivia, Sower, Clique, Spell Snare, Murderous Cut, and 1 Negate.
In Game 2, I'm the one who is shy on lands but I have plenty of interaction with multiple Snapcasters, Vendilion Clique, and Bolts. He Thoughtseizes me early and takes a Terminate over Tasigur. He then follows up with a Tarmogoyf, but since neither one of us has cracked a fetchland yet, I'm able to bolt it. He has another Tarmogoyf and then Liliana, but I'm able to kill Liliana with Vendilion Clique while taking shots from the Goyf. The Clique shows me that his last two cards are Abrupt Decay and Terminate. I make him bottom the Terminate and then I'm immediately punished by drawing Spell Snare. For some reason, I elect to mainphase Bolt Snap Bolt the Goyf, which allows him to use Kolghan's Command to get it back on my turn. He elects to kill the Snapcaster with the Command instead of the Clique, which I think might be a faulty memory but I do remember the Clique being alive at the end of the game. He then recasts the Goyf, but I snag it with Spell Snare and then drop Tasigur. He's unable to come back from the beats.
Round 2: Jund (0-2)
In game 1 I keep a loose hand of Steam Vents, Sulfur Falls, Island, Remand, Snapcaster Mage, Vendilion Clique, Terminate on the draw against an unknown opponent. I think the hand would have been fine on the play but it's too slow on the draw. On his first turn he plays a fetchland, says "I hope you're not burn" and proceeds to take 5 to Thoughtseize me. He takes the Terminate, but it's immaterial as I manage to draw 3 more black spells and zero black lands and get my face beaten in by Tarmogoyf.
I do the same board plan as the last round, except I left in a Pestermite and left out a Negate. After I presented, it occurred to me that he had never seen a combo piece so he probably thought I was on Grixis Control, and thus could have left the combo in. I resolved to switch back to the combo if I won this game.
In game 2, I'm a little land shy to start. I get an early Tasigur to stick, but he chumps with Fulminator Mage and kills a Steam Vents, leaving me with Steam Vents, Swamp, Tectonic Edge as my only mana. He plays Liliana on his turn and forces me to sacrifice Tasigur. He's done a lot of damage to himself this game with his lands and Thoughtseizes, so he's already down to 11 and I have Bolt, Bolt, KCommand in hand so I ignore Liliana with the plan to burn him out. I draw a Polluted Delta, play it, and pass. On his turn, he taps out for Huntmaster of the Fells. What I should have done is realize that the fight is no longer about his life total and I should switch into attrition mode (I have a Keranos in hand that would take the game over given time) and Bolted Liliana with the Huntmaster on the stack. What I end up doing is Remanding the Huntmaster, which allows him to activate Liliana to get another card. I have the choice between Keranos and Cryptic Command (or any of the burn spells) but I screw up again. I'm thinking that I can eot fetch for Steam Vents, Bolt Liliana, and then if I draw a blue source I'll have Cryptic up, so I pitch Keranos. When I go to crack the Delta, I realize that I took both the third Steam Vents and the basic Mountain out of my deck so I'm forced to shock Blood Crypt into play to Bolt Liliana, and then I get ground out by Huntmaster + his own Kolaghan's Command to get it back. If I had Bolted Liliana with the Huntmaster on the stack OR pitched the Cryptic to her ability, I think I would have been in good shape to win this game. Between the extra wolf token and the 2 damage from the Blood Crypt, he's able to take me to 3 life the turn before I stabilize and Bolt me out.
Round 3: Scapeshift (2-0)
I have to mulligan to 6 on the draw, but the only cards I play on the first three turns are Steam Vents, Sulfur Falls, Watery Grave so he thinks I'm Grixis Control and taps out turn 4 for a ramp spell. I have the Exarch, Twin, and the fourth land in hand.
I sideboard out all my Bolts and two Terminates to bring in the five counterspells and second Clique. I leave a miser's Terminate in in case he has random creatures. In hindsight, this was a poor plan but it didn't cost me. What I should have done was taken out a bolt, both KCommands, and all Terminates. While we were boarding, he's telling his friend about how great this matchup is for him and how happy he is to be playing it. I don't understand why he feels that way, but I'm glad he's overconfident.
In game 2, he's severely mana flooded while I'm relatively mana light. I'm stuck on four lands but I have double Negate in hand so I'm feeling fairly safe. He's plinking away at me with a Sakura-Tribe Elder while I'm plinking away back with a Deceiever Exarch. I eventually draw my fifth land and can play a Tasigur for B which lands uncontested. Tasigur's first activation gives me a Dispel out of an empty graveyard, so I'm way ahead. However, he has two Valakuts in play and has managed to get them active. His sixth mountain takes out my Exarch, while on the next two turns he sends the triggers to my face. He goes for Scapeshift, which I Negate and then Negate again when he Dispels my Negate. I'm at 7 and he's at 11 at this point. I untap, knock him down to 7, and on his turn he uses two more triggers to knock me to 1. I EOT flash in Exarch+Snapcaster to hit him for exactly lethal while at 1 life. After the game, I point out that if he had just killed Tasigur, he probably wins that game. He counters with if he had shot Tasigur before the Exarch, he would have had no way to stop the Twin combo (which he had no way to stop and I had in hand, but I had no way of knowing he couldn't stop it and if he could stop it, he'd have a window to combo me back). I told him that killing the Exarch first was fine, but there's no reason his second batch of triggers couldn't have killed the Tasigur instead of trying to race.
Round 4: Burn (1-2)
I finally win a die roll and combo kill him on turn four before he can turn four kill me back.
I board out Remands and Anticipates for counterspells and Murderous Cut.
He starts out aggressive in game two but I'm able to stabilize with removal and turn 3 Tasigur. He manages to get me to 4 life before I can start countering burn spells, but my Tasigur is forced to stay at home to block his Goblin Guide. I eventually cast Deceiver Exarch, which gets Rending Volleyed immediately. I look at my six lands in play, 2 counterpslls, Snapcaster, and Murderous Cut in my hand, shrug, and send Tasigur in to begin the beats the hard way. On his turn, he casts 2 more Goblin Guides and swings. I Cut one and cast Snapcaster, but then I realize I don't have the second black source to flashback Cut, so I target Spell Snare. He has the second Rending Volley to kill Snapcaster and deals me exactly 4 with Goblin Guide. If I had waited one more turn to fetch Watery Grave to have the second black up, I think I win that game because I have 2 more counterspells in hand.
In game 3, I mulligan to five on the play and he has double Eidolon. I lose quickly.
Round 5: Abzan Collected Company (2-0)
He wins the die roll for game 1, thinks I'm playing Grixis control, taps out on turn 4, and dies for it.
I sideboard both Angers, Olivia, both Dispels, and the Clique. I took out Remands but I don't remember what else. I wasn't sure how to board this matchup, but I was sure it didn't matter because their deck just doesn't do anything when I kill literally everything he plays and have infinite damage to counter his infinite life.
He keeps a super slow hand off of a mulligan and I'm content to kill a random guy a turn. Eventually I Clique him and he shows me Murderous Recap, Collected Company, and Chord of Calling (he Abrupt Decays the Clique with the trigger on the stack instead of casting CoCo.) Since I have Dispel in hand for Company, he only have four lands in play so Chord doesn't do anything, and my only route to victory in sight is Snapcaster beats, I bottom the Recap. On my turn, I snap Serum Visions, he casts Company, I Snap Dispel, and he's out of gas. Naturally with zero creatures on his side and two Snapcasters on mine, my first draw is Anger of the Gods. He doesn't do anything relevant before I finish him off with creature beats.
Round 6: Jeskai control (2-0)
Game 1 was weird. He gets stuck on lands for awhile, so I Tectonic Edge a Steam Vents as soon as he gets to four lands and then use Cryptic Command to bounce Celestial Colonnade when he gets to six. We both have draws heavy with Snapcasters and Remands, so whenever either of us cast a Snapcaster, the other person would Remand whatever got flashed back. I'm not really doing much but making land drops, so he's throwing burn at my face. I eventually start countering burn spells when I hit 7 life. I have a Tasigur in play getting card advantage and beating down, but my only cards in hand are Splinter Twins so I eventually have to Twin up a Snapcaster Mage just to get value out of them. I end up grinding him out with Tasigur + Twinned Snapcaster.
I board out Bolts and two Terminates for the five counterspells and Vendilion Clique. I leave a miser's Terminate in just in case he has something stupid like Baneslayer Angel. Hey, it's happened before.
I don't remember much of this game except he keeps Electrolyzing my face while I'm beating him down with a pair of Exarchs. I Vendilion Clique him at one point (which dies with the trigger on the stack) and see Bolt, Celestial Purge, Celestial Purge, which I let him keep them all. I then KCommand the Clique back and target me (it dies with the trigger on the stack) to cycle out a Remand. He activates a Celestial Colonnade at some point, which I Tectonic Edge. He Paths an Exarch but is tapped out so I combo off with the other one.
Notes on the list:
Tectonic Edge in the mana base over Desolate Lighthouse was the correct call. I never had time to activate Lighthouse if it had been one, but killing manlands was relevant all day. That said, I'd probably swap it for a Ghost Quarter or even cut it entirely for another black source. I lost a couple games during the day because I didn't have enough black mana. Drowned Catacombs were fantastic. Having 5 check lands made casting Terminate on turn 2 easy and painless.
The Anticipates were solid. I would prefer to have Ponder or Preordain, obviously, but they fulfilled their function well. In testing, I treated these as a split card Thought Scour/Anticipate and the overwhelming majority of the time, I preferred the actual selection of Anticipate to the cheapness and graveyard synergy of Thought Scour. Twin's gameplan is so fluid that it helps to have cantrips that are similarly flexible. However, if I was going to make any changes, this slot is the first I'd make cuts to.
The 1/1 Split on Cryptic Command and Spell Snare was intentional. I love drawing the first copies of these cards but I rarely want to draw multiples. The second Snare is in the board for Jund, Burn, Affinity, and other Snapcaster decks. Cryptic is just too slow in this deck to chance drawing multiples.
I brought the second Vendilion Clique in every round except burn but I'm not sure if I would want to maindeck the second copy. There are a lot of matches where I don't want it at all.
I wouldn't mind a second Pestermite to help with the backup beatdown plan. Either the fourth Exarch or the second Anticipate would be the cut.
I could see going down to three Twins but I value the ability to randomly kill people on turn four more than I value not drawing multiples. Modern is just too fast and too open to not have the brute force method available.
The sideboard mostly worked out. I used every card but the Vandalblast at some point (never faced Affinity but plenty were present). I never actually drew the Sower but I don't like it in theory. I added it mostly at random at the last second. I could see cutting the Sower and the second Engineered Explosives for something like Spellskite.
After saying all that, I'd like to wrap up by saying that I think the deck is a great choice for the PPTQ metagame. It's powerful, proactive, and flexible enough to handle any matchup and it greatly rewards play skill and experience. Every game I lost, I can point to exactly where I lost it and what I could have done differently to turn it into a win. If you're still here, thanks for reading.
One more thing about Gavony Township. It gets a lot worse without mana dorks to pump. The reason Township was so good in Pod decks is because they could sit a bunch of mana guys in play and Township would eventually make them lethal. Township never caught on in the regular Abzan midrange decks though because that deck never had enough creatures in play at a time to be worth spending 5 mana to pump. It's overkill, unnecessary, and a waste of mana to put a counter on one or two guys that are already big. I'd rather spend that mana on actual cards or activating manlands.
I completely overlooked Eternal Witness in the 3-drop slot. She's still worth running because she doesn't compete with Anafenza for our turn 3.
I'm running a lot more spot removal than you are. I don't mind running extra spot removal because most decks win through their commander so there's almost always going to be a target. On top of what you have, I'm also running Disfigure, Council's Judgment, Profane Command, and Maelstrom Pulse. Pulse and Judgment are extra disenchants that are never dead, Command is a sweet 2 for 1 that also doubles as a fireball, and Disfigure is just cheap tempo. Darkblast also might be a reasonable inclusion if you're in the right meta. I'd imagine it's pretty good against elf tribal. Vindicate is another potential inclusion and could lead to a mana denial subtheme.
As far as creatures go, I've found Putrid Leech to be one of the best beaters we have access to. The only thing that's bigger than it is Goyf and the extra life the format gives us makes it easy to pump. Heir of the Wilds is also reasonable since our general turns on ferocious. I've been trying out Rakshasa Deathdealer and Warden of the First Tree as late game mana sinks that are still reasonable early. The jury is still out on them but I like them so far.
For general utility spells, I'd recommend Sylvan Library and Green Sun's Zenith. GSZ has reasonable utility as a Disenchant/Regrowth/Tarmogoyf hybrid and can make certain sideboard cards better. Sylvan Library is just good fun. Gerrard's Verdict is good if you want another discard spell. I've seen other builds run more tutors, like Chord of Calling and Worldly Tutor, so you could go that route if you wish. I'd rather play more standalone threats but it's reasonable to try for something like the Melira combo.
Right now, I'm running a 6 fetch/3 dual/3 shock/3 basic/4 utility lands setup (Command Tower, Treetop Village, Stirring Wildwood, Wasteland). I've been thinking about cutting the shocks altogether. Before I had duals in the deck, I ran perfectly fine on fetches, shocks, and basics, so now that I have the real duals there should theoretically be no need for shocklands. If I'm fetching, I'm finding a dual, and if I have all duals in play I'll probably be fine getting a basic instead of a shockland. However, I'm not certain what I would replace the shocks with. Reflecting Pool would be one of them but the other two slots are up in the air. I don't want more colorless lands because so many of my cards have zero colorless mana in their casting costs. Wasteland is awkward enough; I certainly never want to draw double colorless lands. Gavony Township seems okay but our guys should be larger than the average opponent's guys and we have Anafenza to pump them more, so I don't think Township is where I want to be. 7-8 fetch + Urborg seems reasonable as well to maximize DRS and KotR. I definitely want 19 land because even though the curve stops at 3 mana, I've built my deck in such a way that my cards scale very well with excess mana. Even something as simple as casting a spell and activating Treetop requires 4-5 land in play. Okina, Temple to the Grandfathers and Eiganjo Castle seem like they would have reasonable effects.
As far as your local meta is concerned, I think that by adopting extra versatile removal spells into your main, a leaner curve, and more pressure, you'll see siginificant improvements in your match against Ezuri and Sydri. Anafenza's secondary ability naturally trumps Alesha's and Grenzo's entire strategies, and copious removal helps trump Skullbriar. If you're having problems with mill, I'd recommend running both Gaea's Blessing and Krosan Reclamation (for if/when you draw the Blessing) to your sideboard, but I'd think discard + a strong clock would be enough.
Pernicious Deed is another excellent main deck sweeper that also takes care of Thopter Foundry and all the tokens.
I would also recommend picking up Treetop Village and Stirring Wildwood for your mana base. They hit hard and are good at closing out the game.
I find Sword of War and Peace to be superior to Feast and Famine. I only want two swords and would prefer to have one grindy sword and one offensive sword. Fire and Ice is my preferred grindy sword. The only thing F+F had going for it is a good set of protections but I would rather shock and draw than discard and untap.
I was merely pointing out that in something like 90% of games, Anafenza is our turn 3 play, so all 3cc spells need to be pretty damn good otherwise they're just getting in the way of our curve. I would agree with the focus on GW with a splash of B with the caveat that the better your manabase becomes, the less you have to pay attention to colored mana symbols. It would be easy to substitute something like Gerrard's Verdict for Hymn to Tourach and Kitchen Finks is an order of magnitude better than Vampire Nighthawk (although I'd be tempted to run Seeker of the Way over either if I really wanted life gain, strictly for curve purposes).
Turn 1: 1 drop or discard
Turn 2: 2 drop
Turn 3: Anafenza
Turn 4: Removal + 2 drop.
This leads us to some conclusions. The most obvious one is that Anafenza is always our turn 3, which means any 3cc creatures we run either have to be better than Anafenza, or useful past turn 3. The only 3 drop creatures I run in my deck are Knight of the Reliquary and Eternal Witness. You do not want to have cards that are only beaters in your three drop slot. They just get in the way and throw off your curve. You want your primary beaters to be 2 drops so that they curve naturally into Anafenza, then 2cc removal and a second 2 drop on turn 4. The ones I currently use are Scavenging Ooze, Heir of the Wilds, Putrid Leech, Tidehollow Sculler, Qasali Pridmage, Fleecemane Lion, and Stoneforge Mystic. Putrid Leech is the biggest 2 drop we have access to, excluding Tarmogoyf. SFM gives us a beautiful curve of Anafenza into activate+equip and even picks up the bonus counter in the process. Rakshasa Deathdealer is another cheap option. I tried Pack Rat out but I didn't like it. Making a rat on turn 3 was almost always worse than just casting Anafenza and I think Rats are simply too slow for this format.
I found Toxic Deluge to be the perfect sweeper for this deck because it's easy to cast it for 2 life and have all our guys survive. I'm also running a copy of Pernicious Deed in the main as a catchall that works well at 2 with Anafenza.
I don't like Aether Vial in this deck because we get little benefit from the flash, it's only good on turn one, and by the time Aether Vial could drop our creatures out, we could have just cast them and been swinging.
I would stay away from anything that synergizes with +1/+1 counters because if we have enough creatures in play that the benefit matters, we're probably already winning, and those creatures don't do anything at all by themselves. We're more interested in standalone threats and removal than synergy.
Profane Command has been a pretty solid spell for me. I usually cast it for 4, killing a guy and returning one of mine. Ajani, Caller of the Pride is something I'm testing out for now. He can put out a ton of damage by flinging Anafenza into the air, but I'll probably replace him with Liliana when I can pick one up. He gets much better if you do decide you want to run a +1/+1 counter theme.
Sheldon posted an article a couple weeks ago that was an interview with Prossh. He brought up that some people want Prossh banned in that article. It would be easily dismissed if it was any random person saying it, but having the face of the format use Prossh's power level as the driving force behind three of his last four articles raises some red flags.
On topic: Yes, every Jund deck is better with Prossh as the general in the same way that every RUG deck is better with Maelstrom Wanderer as the general. He's a powerful creature that lines up perfectly with what the colors want to do in a way that no other legend in his colors can match. It's more of a testament to the fact that the alternatives are so lackluster than to anything Prossh does himself.
There are 4 banned generals in Commander. 2 of them (Erayo and Braids) directly prevent players from playing the game. Rofellos generates an absurd amount of resources starting on turn 3 every game. Prossh does neither of these things. He can combo with a variety of cards, but so can multiple other generals and they're in no danger of getting banned. The whole idea behind this format is to let the social contract take care of situations like this so that the banned list isn't arm-length. So let it do its work.