Impasse?
Word I need is situation in which neither party can conquer the other and cannot sway one party to back down
The other issue you may be having is that the [word goes here] is only so so long as dds hasn't voted.
Stalemate has nobody-wins connotations. I'm not entirely convinced there's anything sinister behind Nyxu's use of that word, though...
That's why it's the wrong word.
Standoff?
Really hating my attachment to brevity in this case. I know there has to be a word or term for this kind of situation but none of the ones that come to mind for properly
Nyxu's "case" against me revolves around my attacking swishh - a player who, from my perspective, has to be scum.
Chainsaw Defense is in play (since from my seat swishh is confirmed scum and Nyxu is the one attacking me for attacking swishh), and makes perfect sense for scumNyxu given my weak predecessor, DDS's suspicion of me w/ swishh, lack of any other stated case, and that the game ends if we mislynch toDay.
My case isn't based on your attack on swishh, taredas. It's based on cold calculated logic, poe, your as of yet uncontested slip, and strengthened by your reactions as of late.
Not even that much of a case if you really think of it. I'm just making a calculated risk based off of the game state and the conclusions that can be drawn from it.
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
So sorry for taking so long...this is a lot of responsibility. If I screw this up, we lose.
I will have a decision soon.
No need to apologize. We have until the 7th, and you're right: it's a lot for you to shoulder. I'm still rereading, but it's slow going. If I find anything that I feel sheds any light, I'll mention it.
This will be a dumbing down (putting thoughts into words)...some stating the obvious. Votes are (2) Swishh and (2) Taredas. One is town, one is scum. If not, scum would already have a win right now. Which means two scum are voting together as are the other two townies.
Scumteam possibilities are therefore:
Swishh/Nyxu or Taredas/Cantrip. Any other combination would have already resulted in town loss, even without my vote. Is any of this logic flawed?
Anyone can answer this.
I'll be working through more reread, putting my thoughts into notes, and post more in a bit. I'll not hold this game up too much longer, but I also don't want to rush.
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Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
This will be a dumbing down (putting thoughts into words)...some stating the obvious. Votes are (2) Swishh and (2) Taredas. One is town, one is scum. If not, scum would already have a win right now. Which means two scum are voting together as are the other two townies.
Scumteam possibilities are therefore:
Swishh/Nyxu or Taredas/Cantrip. Any other combination would have already resulted in town loss, even without my vote. Is any of this logic flawed?
Anyone can answer this.
I'll be working through more reread, putting my thoughts into notes, and post more in a bit. I'll not hold this game up too much longer, but I also don't want to rush.
You're missing the 7-10 split option- that is to say the possibility that both scum are currently being voted by each other. It's -really- wonky seeming but it -is- a valid gamestate that doesn't result in a town loss without your vote.
I will be placing a vote today. I openly admit I feel a little overwhelmed with this decision. If I choose incorrectly, I hope the town forgives me and won't hold it against me in future games. Anyone have any final input?
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Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
I will be placing a vote today. I openly admit I feel a little overwhelmed with this decision. If I choose incorrectly, I hope the town forgives me and won't hold it against me in future games. Anyone have any final input?
I'd be a little miffed at anyone who held it against you in future games; I would hope that's not what we're about on this site. Even seasoned pros make errors in similar situations, and rarely do they have things this clear-cut for them. At least you have a 50-50 chance.
It's only 50/50 if you a flip a coin. Taredas has shown how anxious he is for you to hammer with each of his posts. You still have a week to ask us any questions you think could help you make the right choice. If reading me vs. Taredas is difficult, you can read between Nyxu and Cantrip since the teams are established at this point.
And yes technically Nyxu is right - if Taredas and I were both scum (as you thought earlier today) then you can't mishammer!
Deadline: July 7, 2013 @ 17:00 Pacific [20:00 Eastern]
If the deadline hits without a lynch, the person with the most votes will be lynched. If the highest votes are tied, the day will end in a "no lynch."
So cantrip. What do you think about taredas' attacks on me Lately?
I don't think the majority of his attacks on you are all that convincing. I don't agree with him in 904 that you weren't considering D5, nor that you're responding to him as though he's town. I don't see either of those. Other than 904...what attacks has he made on you? The "chainsaw defense" attack in 913? Yeah, not really seeing that, either.
My siding with Taredas has more to do with my suspicions of swishh.
@Nyxu: Can you summarize your position against Taredas?
@All: I'm very frustrated that my reread is going so slow. I'm feeling a little sick of this game because I'm not getting anywhere, and I'm tempted to just vote Taredas and see where it goes. This isn't just me being an impatient jerk:
• MRH had some questionable posts.
• I'm having a hard time discerning how much of my current town read on Taredas is residual from my go-round with Wheat.
• I'm not even sure what my town read on Taredas is based on other than that swishh is attacking him.
• The more it gets mentioned, the more possible a 7-10 split sounds given that swishh and Taredas voted each other first. They may have thought going after me or Nyxu was too risky and decided that bussing (esp. if they could divide opinions) was the better plan.
I'm sure this will be met with attacks that I'm establishing WIFOM in case scum!Taredas gets lynched so that I'm not auto-lynched Tomorrow, and I won't blame you for doing so, but, like I said, on top of everything else above, I'm frustrated and a bit sad that I haven't solved this/had time to reread, so whatever.
Sigh. But not yet voting Taredas because I haven't quite succumbed to mafia ennui.
There are a limited number of permutations of the current vote pattern assuming lylo
Of those, most run counter to a scum endgame (namely, any permutation in which a town is voted by another town means the scum can hammer for the win).
Because the game has not been ended via scumhammer it is safe to assume that town is not voting for town.
The above statement is only true in the permutations where dds is town
So we can, using only two assumptions (2 scum, scum will end the game if they have the chance) draw the conclusions that:
Dds is town
Both scum have voted
Of the two wagons, at least one is on scum
No vote from town is on another townie
From these conclusions, I must deduce that I am, as town, voting scum
There are a limited number of permutations of the current vote pattern assuming lylo
Of those, most run counter to a scum endgame (namely, any permutation in which a town is voted by another town means the scum can hammer for the win).
Because the game has not been ended via scumhammer it is safe to assume that town is not voting for town.
The above statement is only true in the permutations where dds is town
So we can, using only two assumptions (2 scum, scum will end the game if they have the chance) draw the conclusions that:
Dds is town
Both scum have voted
Of the two wagons, at least one is on scum
No vote from town is on another townie
From these conclusions, I must deduce that I am, as town, voting scum
Um...so no behavioral scum indications from MRH or Taredas, no town indications from swishh, just "given the situation, I know I'm voting scum because I'm town"? Here's where I have a problem with this: I have no way to know that your base premise of "Nyxu's town" is true, so what you assert as "math/logic" falls flat.
If you were town, I'd expect you to have listed a number of tells/slips/behavioral elements that made you think that Taredas was scum (or swishh town, therefore his attacker scum). That you presented "math, wait, no logic" with "Nyxu's town" as the base premise makes it sound like you don't have behavioral reasons to suspect Taredas and/or you're afraid of being called out on a discrepancy if you try to summarize your reasons.
Maybe you misunderstood my question and you'd like to try again?
There are a limited number of permutations of the current vote pattern assuming lylo
Of those, most run counter to a scum endgame (namely, any permutation in which a town is voted by another town means the scum can hammer for the win).
Because the game has not been ended via scumhammer it is safe to assume that town is not voting for town.
The above statement is only true in the permutations where dds is town
So we can, using only two assumptions (2 scum, scum will end the game if they have the chance) draw the conclusions that:
Dds is town
Both scum have voted
Of the two wagons, at least one is on scum
No vote from town is on another townie
From these conclusions, I must deduce that I am, as town, voting scum
Um...so no behavioral scum indications from MRH or Taredas, no town indications from swishh, just "given the situation, I know I'm voting scum because I'm town"? Here's where I have a problem with this: I have no way to know that your base premise of "Nyxu's town" is true, so what you assert as "math/logic" falls flat.
If you were town, I'd expect you to have listed a number of tells/slips/behavioral elements that made you think that Taredas was scum (or swishh town, therefore his attacker scum). That you presented "math, wait, no logic" with "Nyxu's town" as the base premise makes it sound like you don't have behavioral reasons to suspect Taredas and/or you're afraid of being called out on a discrepancy if you try to summarize your reasons.
Maybe you misunderstood my question and you'd like to try again?
CBA is can't be arsed.
You make a big, fat, nasty mistake saying I have no other indicators for Taredas being scum, and no indicators for Swishh being town.
Thing is? From my seat, I don't even need to factor them in. You asked for my reasoning for my vote, I gave you my reasoning for my vote in the most succinct manner. My reasoning goes from nothing to Beyond Reasonable Doubt using only the factual gamestate. If you'd like for me to go into pettifogging detail please don't use the word "Summary".
I'll get back to you later with a more verbose explanation of my view on alignments beyond the gamestate.
Though, if you can't wait, start rereading my posts. Items I'll cite will be primarily from ToDay and will include Taredas' slip(s), his reactions to being called out on said slip(s), his resorting to "laying traps", his flailing and fearmongering. For Swishh I'll primarily cite the way he handled my request for a postmortem with other indicators as I find them
Well, I guess this is my vote. I have reread everything 3 more times in the last 3 days. Don't feel like I am making any more progress or having any epiphanies. This is what my gut is telling me. I'll go over more of my thought process tomorrow (or post-game, whichever occurs).
Vote Taredas
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Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!! My Decks
Legacy BSpanish InquisitionB UWU/W StoneBladeWU WUGBant NOGUW BWDeadguy AleWB Modern WDeath and TaxesW EDH BBBalthor ReanimatorBB GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG BBMaralen ANT EDHBB UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
If the AC repair dude doesn't show up bright and early tomorrow, I'm gonna borrow some of DDS' dental tools to carve out his eye sockets like jack o lanterns.
Pete grimaced. The remaining Villains had surrounded Taredas who was sitting in a chair with a Villain standing at the left and the right. At the front and the back. There was no point in revealing who was underneath because they had already claimed who they were under their masks. But when one of the Villains grabbed Taredas’s mask, it still sent a shiver down Pete’s spin. The mask was torn off and the person behind it was revealed:
The Red Queen, Unstable Monarch
Movie: Alice in Wonderland
“What do we do now? How can we determine if she is a traitor or not? ” queried one of the Villains. Pete spoke up: “Off with her head, of course.” As if conjuring something out of nowhere, he revealed a large shovel and handed it to one of the remaining masked Villains. One of the Villains tipped the chair Taredas was sitting in and the Queen fell on her hands and knees. One hit from the shovel knocked him out, and one sickening decapitation removed the head. The Queen of Hearts had been decapitated by an Ace of Spades.
Taredas’s headless corpse began to glow and behind their masks, the Villains smiled. Pete knew what was coming next and so did the Villains. A bright light shot into the room and a large explosion, as if from a firecracker, resonated through the room. The body below was no longer decapitated. It was, small though. It was a child! It was:
Alice
Mafia Goon
A collective cheer came from the crowd. Pete grabbed the small lifeless body to dispose of while the Villains retired to their quarters. “A huge victory in such a small body,” Pete thought to himself. The Villains were back with a vengeance. He didn’t fret or worry about tomorrow; he was too busy loving the moment for what it was right here and right now.
It is now Night Four and will last 48 hours. Do not post until I have announced it is Day again. Please send your Night Actions into me as soon as possible. Day will not start any earlier than 48 hours from now.
Pete was listlessly waiting for the sun to rise while bunking in his chambers. He was afraid of what he was going to find tomorrow morning. A part of him thought that if he didn’t sleep nothing would happen. The other part of him knew that this was just wishful thinking. The traitors had stopped at nothing in the last couple of days to knock off the Villains. The traitors were bold and daring even under the same roof as some of the strongest and nastiest people he knew. Is it a possibly that these traitors were stronger and nastier than the Villains? Pete shuddered at the thought.
Pete flipped on his side and closed his eyes. A second later a scream came from somewhere. He jumped up and opened his door. There he saw three more Villains standing in the hallway. He couldn’t see their bags under their eyes or their worried expressions. He didn’t need to; he knew they were there. The four of them realized which room the scream came from by process of elimination. They ran to MTG~DDS’s room and kicked open the door. There was Captain Hook. His hook had been severed from his hand. And his hook had been speared through his head. MTG~DDS was…
Captain Hook, Hunter of Lost Boys
Movie: Peter Pan
Vanilla Town
Pete didn’t need to say anything, he simply closed the door and addressed the Villains. “We don’t need to sleep tonight. We need to figure out who has done this. Who has been so daring.” The Villains nodded in agreement. They filed into the room where they had been debating and arguing for the last four days. The three remaining Villains didn’t speak yet. They all made glances at each other: sizing each other up.
The time had come. It was nearing the end. And as the clock struck midnight, each of them vowed deep down that this would all be over after the sun rose.
It is now Day Five! With 3 alive, it’s 2 to lynch!
Deadline for the Day has been set to July 14, 2013 at 17:00 Pacific / 20:00 Eastern. If no consensus has been reached by the deadline, the person with the most number of votes will be lynched. If the vote is tied, then the day will end in a “no lynch.”
So, I know how this looks. I now know that swishh is scum, but I don't know if I can prove it, especially when my choices this game have been so dismal. I'm about halfway through a reread, which is about halfway more than I made it yesterday.
Nyxu, if you can bear to hold off on lynching me until I finish, I'd appreciate it. If not, well, like I said, this game is getting old, anyway.
My previous post was a bit rushed because my 4-year-old was yanking me out the door for fireworks and my three-week-old was on a 7-meal feeding binge, screaming in-between feedings. What I meant to say was that I know how things look with me starting the wagon on Wheat when Wheat was going after MRH and then again siding with Taredas Yesterday. I know that I've made some very bad choices this game.
I also know that swishh is the last scum. If Nyxu were the last scum, Taredas would have jumped wagons and lynched swishh ftw. I know that does nothing for you, Nyxu, given that you don't know my alignment, but, like I said, I'm working on building a case against swishh that will convince you, preferably with something airtight that proves he's scum or exonerates me.
If you feel that there's no chance that I'm town, please take a moment to look at my three scum games (in my blog). Most of the time, my scum game is flawless, to the point that most players think I'm town right up until end game. The one game that I haven't excelled, I got caught because I botched a falseclaim by posting it when I didn't have my notes. (And yes, I realize that my claim this game raised some eyebrows, too.) I hate pointing to my bad play as evidence that I'm town, but, like I said, I'm usually really good at being scum, and I never would have made some of these mistakes if I were on the mafia team.
If you still think there's no chance I'm town, feel free to vote me. I certainly don't deserve the win. But I'd like one last opportunity to try.
That post is heavily laden with AtE and WIFOM ("I know how bad things look for me" and "I play much better than this when I am scum."). Were Nyxu scum he could have ensured a win yesterday, and having DDS mishammer yesterday was really your only shot at a win.
To summarize the current game state: Cantrip is forced to believe I am scum. I am forced to believe Cantrip is scum. Nyxu has to decide if Cantrip is scum or both Taredas and I were. Given the effort Taredas put into getting me lynched yesterday, hopefully this isn't a difficult decision.
That post is heavily laden with AtE and WIFOM ("I know how bad things look for me" and "I play much better than this when I am scum."). Were Nyxu scum he could have ensured a win yesterday, and having DDS mishammer yesterday was really your only shot at a win.
To summarize the current game state: Cantrip is forced to believe I am scum. I am forced to believe Cantrip is scum. Nyxu has to decide if Cantrip is scum or both Taredas and I were. Given the effort Taredas put into getting me lynched yesterday, hopefully this isn't a difficult decision.
1. What's AtE?
2. That post wasn't intended to sway Nyxu beyond delaying my lynch so I could make a case.
3. I already stated that Nyxu is not scum and why. It's certainly between you and me.
4. Taredas putting in lots of effort to get you lynched means nothing if the plan was for the two of you to bus each other from the get-go.
2: Swishh did you build your wg postmortem from notes or by rereading?
I'm assuming you expect either/both of us to answer #1?
I knew DDS would be the nightkill from the point that the votecount was 2-2 and DDS didn't speedhammer ftw. He was already considered likely town by most of the living players, and at that point he became either definitely town or sadistic-scum-with-a-death-wish-trying-to-extend-the-game-for-his-own-strange-pleasure.
Also, thought experiment. If scum are to iocane powder and potential lynches are wine glasses, how close to the original scene was dds' choice?
Um, I guess I don't quite understand the question, but my response is "who cares?" Not that it doesn't sound like a fun thought experiment, but I'm going to be hard-pressed enough just to finish my reread. So, sorry if I don't participate in this one atm.
Honestly being in this position (effectively kingmaker) gives me an atypical amount of power over the game. Fortunately people seem to like forcing me into this situation.
More questions:
Both: why would both scum vote in lylo if not to score a lynch
Cantrip why would taredas and swishh vote each other in lylo?
Swishh why would cantrip jump to vote you alongside taredas?
Both: why would both scum vote in lylo if not to score a lynch
Cantrip why would taredas and swishh vote each other in lylo?
Swishh why would cantrip jump to vote you alongside taredas?
Since I seem to be on more often than swishh, do you want me to give him the opportunity to respond to some of these questions before I do? Does it matter to you?
Do you think that your answers will influence his?
Maybe to an extent. Since I know I'm town, I know that my answers are going to be honest town responses. Since I know swishh is scum, I don't want to provide honest town responses that he can just barn.
That said, I feel like I'm definitely the one on the ropes here, so it's not like I'm going to balk even if you specifically want me to answer before swishh does on some or all questions.
That post is heavily laden with AtE and WIFOM ("I know how bad things look for me" and "I play much better than this when I am scum."). Were Nyxu scum he could have ensured a win yesterday, and having DDS mishammer yesterday was really your only shot at a win.
To summarize the current game state: Cantrip is forced to believe I am scum. I am forced to believe Cantrip is scum. Nyxu has to decide if Cantrip is scum or both Taredas and I were. Given the effort Taredas put into getting me lynched yesterday, hopefully this isn't a difficult decision.
Honestly being in this position (effectively kingmaker) gives me an atypical amount of power over the game. Fortunately people seem to like forcing me into this situation.
More questions:
Both: why would both scum vote in lylo if not to score a lynch
Cantrip why would taredas and swishh vote each other in lylo?
Swishh why would cantrip jump to vote you alongside taredas?
I don't understand the question addressed to us both. Are you saying scum may opt not to vote in lylo?
RE: #2 - because lynching me would result in a scum win yesterday.
Both: why would both scum vote in lylo if not to score a lynch
I could conjure a number of hypothetical situations that this would happen, but as for this game:
Quote from Nyxu »
Cantrip why would taredas and swishh vote each other in lylo?
One of three possibilities I can think of:
1. They figured that taking the more traditional route of holding off on votes until everyone was ready would drag out the day and possibly lead to their exposure, whereas voting each other would start people voting and maybe give them a quick win. This would be compounded by how town the remaining town players appeared toward each other. This doesn't make as much sense to me given how I played all game and the suspicion on you.
2. They'd been working on projecting an image of suspecting each other all game, so the logical path would be to vote each other, with the added bonus of giving massive town pants to the surviving scum if one was lynched. This is one of the things I'm watching for in my reread.
3. They just decided to try auto-bussing as a lylo strategy. I don't know that I've seen that before, so I don't know if it's known to be successful or a bad play.
Why would an ideal scum strategy be to bus each other at lylo when getting a town lynched would result in a scum win?
I don't know that it's ideal, but I don't really know your experience level (I believe Taredas has significant experience on other sites), or if that kind of idea has been attempted (a lot or at all) in the past (with success or failure).
Maybe the two of you thought that path would be easier than trying to make a case against Nyxu, DDS, or myself. Especially if you managed to split the town players, which is what happened.
So, general question again: why wasn't I the nightkill?
Now that I think about it, I was the only one swishh couldn't kill. Both you & DDS had logic-based town pants & killing me would have made it obvious. Again, with the 2 vs. 2 mentality of yesterDay and DDS making the "right" choice, DDS was the better nightkill.
Still working on the reread, but making progress. Hope to finish today sometime.
If you died it would be me, dds, and cantrip alive today. Cantrip would still have to convince dds to lynch me. This does have the advantage of dds's swishh/taredas scum squad theory, but once there was a cross between us dds showed hesitation before hammering. Damage control
I can't think of the right term
Word I need is situation in which neither party can conquer the other and cannot sway one party to back down
The other issue you may be having is that the [word goes here] is only so so long as dds hasn't voted.
That's why it's the wrong word.
Standoff?
Really hating my attachment to brevity in this case. I know there has to be a word or term for this kind of situation but none of the ones that come to mind for properly
At this point, we HAVE to assume that DDS is town, because otherwise the game is over.
So basically yes.
And you're claiming possible sinister intent from a player who you would KNOW is town if you were town why, exactly?
Nice slip. Your distancing will not save either of you now.
DDS, hammer at will.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
Try harder. I said the exact opposite.
Nyxu's "case" against me revolves around my attacking swishh - a player who, from my perspective, has to be scum.
Chainsaw Defense is in play (since from my seat swishh is confirmed scum and Nyxu is the one attacking me for attacking swishh), and makes perfect sense for scumNyxu given my weak predecessor, DDS's suspicion of me w/ swishh, lack of any other stated case, and that the game ends if we mislynch toDay.
It's swishh and Nyxu. Let's get this done.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
(Also a stronger distancing tell this way.)
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
Misrep fearmonger flail
I will have a decision soon.
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
No need to apologize. We have until the 7th, and you're right: it's a lot for you to shoulder. I'm still rereading, but it's slow going. If I find anything that I feel sheds any light, I'll mention it.
Swishh: votes Taredas
Taredas: votes Swishh
Cantrip: votes Swishh
Nyxu: votes Taredas
This will be a dumbing down (putting thoughts into words)...some stating the obvious. Votes are (2) Swishh and (2) Taredas. One is town, one is scum. If not, scum would already have a win right now. Which means two scum are voting together as are the other two townies.
Scumteam possibilities are therefore:
Swishh/Nyxu or Taredas/Cantrip. Any other combination would have already resulted in town loss, even without my vote. Is any of this logic flawed?
Anyone can answer this.
I'll be working through more reread, putting my thoughts into notes, and post more in a bit. I'll not hold this game up too much longer, but I also don't want to rush.
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
You're missing the 7-10 split option- that is to say the possibility that both scum are currently being voted by each other. It's -really- wonky seeming but it -is- a valid gamestate that doesn't result in a town loss without your vote.
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
I'd be a little miffed at anyone who held it against you in future games; I would hope that's not what we're about on this site. Even seasoned pros make errors in similar situations, and rarely do they have things this clear-cut for them. At least you have a 50-50 chance.
And yes technically Nyxu is right - if Taredas and I were both scum (as you thought earlier today) then you can't mishammer!
Swishh (2): Taredas, Cantripmancer
Taredas (2): swishh, Nyxu
Not Voting: MTG~DDS
With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch!
Deadline: July 7, 2013 @ 17:00 Pacific [20:00 Eastern]
If the deadline hits without a lynch, the person with the most votes will be lynched. If the highest votes are tied, the day will end in a "no lynch."
Why would you even bring that up? Everyone is aware it's lylo.
Because "should be obvious" sometimes isn't.
I don't think the majority of his attacks on you are all that convincing. I don't agree with him in 904 that you weren't considering D5, nor that you're responding to him as though he's town. I don't see either of those. Other than 904...what attacks has he made on you? The "chainsaw defense" attack in 913? Yeah, not really seeing that, either.
My siding with Taredas has more to do with my suspicions of swishh.
@Nyxu: Can you summarize your position against Taredas?
@All: I'm very frustrated that my reread is going so slow. I'm feeling a little sick of this game because I'm not getting anywhere, and I'm tempted to just vote Taredas and see where it goes. This isn't just me being an impatient jerk:
• MRH had some questionable posts.
• I'm having a hard time discerning how much of my current town read on Taredas is residual from my go-round with Wheat.
• I'm not even sure what my town read on Taredas is based on other than that swishh is attacking him.
• The more it gets mentioned, the more possible a 7-10 split sounds given that swishh and Taredas voted each other first. They may have thought going after me or Nyxu was too risky and decided that bussing (esp. if they could divide opinions) was the better plan.
I'm sure this will be met with attacks that I'm establishing WIFOM in case scum!Taredas gets lynched so that I'm not auto-lynched Tomorrow, and I won't blame you for doing so, but, like I said, on top of everything else above, I'm frustrated and a bit sad that I haven't solved this/had time to reread, so whatever.
Sigh. But not yet voting Taredas because I haven't quite succumbed to mafia ennui.
There are a limited number of permutations of the current vote pattern assuming lylo
Of those, most run counter to a scum endgame (namely, any permutation in which a town is voted by another town means the scum can hammer for the win).
Because the game has not been ended via scumhammer it is safe to assume that town is not voting for town.
The above statement is only true in the permutations where dds is town
So we can, using only two assumptions (2 scum, scum will end the game if they have the chance) draw the conclusions that:
Dds is town
Both scum have voted
Of the two wagons, at least one is on scum
No vote from town is on another townie
From these conclusions, I must deduce that I am, as town, voting scum
Not that it matters, probably, but what's "cba"?
Um...so no behavioral scum indications from MRH or Taredas, no town indications from swishh, just "given the situation, I know I'm voting scum because I'm town"? Here's where I have a problem with this: I have no way to know that your base premise of "Nyxu's town" is true, so what you assert as "math/logic" falls flat.
If you were town, I'd expect you to have listed a number of tells/slips/behavioral elements that made you think that Taredas was scum (or swishh town, therefore his attacker scum). That you presented "math, wait, no logic" with "Nyxu's town" as the base premise makes it sound like you don't have behavioral reasons to suspect Taredas and/or you're afraid of being called out on a discrepancy if you try to summarize your reasons.
Maybe you misunderstood my question and you'd like to try again?
CBA is can't be arsed.
You make a big, fat, nasty mistake saying I have no other indicators for Taredas being scum, and no indicators for Swishh being town.
Thing is? From my seat, I don't even need to factor them in. You asked for my reasoning for my vote, I gave you my reasoning for my vote in the most succinct manner. My reasoning goes from nothing to Beyond Reasonable Doubt using only the factual gamestate. If you'd like for me to go into pettifogging detail please don't use the word "Summary".
I'll get back to you later with a more verbose explanation of my view on alignments beyond the gamestate.
Vote Taredas
Thanks to Ace of Spades for the Sig and avatar!!
My Decks
BSpanish InquisitionB
UWU/W StoneBladeWU
WUGBant NOGUW
BWDeadguy AleWB
Modern
WDeath and TaxesW
EDH
BBBalthor ReanimatorBB
GBWThe Rock / TenebWBG
BBMaralen ANT EDHBB
UUHeidar, Winter Is ComingUU
Taredas (3): swishh, Nyxu, MTG~DDS
Swishh (2): Taredas, Cantripmancer
That’s a lynch!
***
Pete grimaced. The remaining Villains had surrounded Taredas who was sitting in a chair with a Villain standing at the left and the right. At the front and the back. There was no point in revealing who was underneath because they had already claimed who they were under their masks. But when one of the Villains grabbed Taredas’s mask, it still sent a shiver down Pete’s spin. The mask was torn off and the person behind it was revealed:
“What do we do now? How can we determine if she is a traitor or not? ” queried one of the Villains. Pete spoke up: “Off with her head, of course.” As if conjuring something out of nowhere, he revealed a large shovel and handed it to one of the remaining masked Villains. One of the Villains tipped the chair Taredas was sitting in and the Queen fell on her hands and knees. One hit from the shovel knocked him out, and one sickening decapitation removed the head. The Queen of Hearts had been decapitated by an Ace of Spades.
Taredas’s headless corpse began to glow and behind their masks, the Villains smiled. Pete knew what was coming next and so did the Villains. A bright light shot into the room and a large explosion, as if from a firecracker, resonated through the room. The body below was no longer decapitated. It was, small though. It was a child! It was:
A collective cheer came from the crowd. Pete grabbed the small lifeless body to dispose of while the Villains retired to their quarters. “A huge victory in such a small body,” Pete thought to himself. The Villains were back with a vengeance. He didn’t fret or worry about tomorrow; he was too busy loving the moment for what it was right here and right now.
It is now Night Four and will last 48 hours. Do not post until I have announced it is Day again. Please send your Night Actions into me as soon as possible. Day will not start any earlier than 48 hours from now.
***
Pete flipped on his side and closed his eyes. A second later a scream came from somewhere. He jumped up and opened his door. There he saw three more Villains standing in the hallway. He couldn’t see their bags under their eyes or their worried expressions. He didn’t need to; he knew they were there. The four of them realized which room the scream came from by process of elimination. They ran to MTG~DDS’s room and kicked open the door. There was Captain Hook. His hook had been severed from his hand. And his hook had been speared through his head. MTG~DDS was…
Pete didn’t need to say anything, he simply closed the door and addressed the Villains. “We don’t need to sleep tonight. We need to figure out who has done this. Who has been so daring.” The Villains nodded in agreement. They filed into the room where they had been debating and arguing for the last four days. The three remaining Villains didn’t speak yet. They all made glances at each other: sizing each other up.
The time had come. It was nearing the end. And as the clock struck midnight, each of them vowed deep down that this would all be over after the sun rose.
It is now Day Five! With 3 alive, it’s 2 to lynch!
Deadline for the Day has been set to July 14, 2013 at 17:00 Pacific / 20:00 Eastern. If no consensus has been reached by the deadline, the person with the most number of votes will be lynched. If the vote is tied, then the day will end in a “no lynch.”
Nyxu, if you can bear to hold off on lynching me until I finish, I'd appreciate it. If not, well, like I said, this game is getting old, anyway.
I also know that swishh is the last scum. If Nyxu were the last scum, Taredas would have jumped wagons and lynched swishh ftw. I know that does nothing for you, Nyxu, given that you don't know my alignment, but, like I said, I'm working on building a case against swishh that will convince you, preferably with something airtight that proves he's scum or exonerates me.
If you feel that there's no chance that I'm town, please take a moment to look at my three scum games (in my blog). Most of the time, my scum game is flawless, to the point that most players think I'm town right up until end game. The one game that I haven't excelled, I got caught because I botched a falseclaim by posting it when I didn't have my notes. (And yes, I realize that my claim this game raised some eyebrows, too.) I hate pointing to my bad play as evidence that I'm town, but, like I said, I'm usually really good at being scum, and I never would have made some of these mistakes if I were on the mafia team.
If you still think there's no chance I'm town, feel free to vote me. I certainly don't deserve the win. But I'd like one last opportunity to try.
To summarize the current game state: Cantrip is forced to believe I am scum. I am forced to believe Cantrip is scum. Nyxu has to decide if Cantrip is scum or both Taredas and I were. Given the effort Taredas put into getting me lynched yesterday, hopefully this isn't a difficult decision.
Vote: Cantripmancer
1: why dds?
2: Swishh did you build your wg postmortem from notes or by rereading?
1. What's AtE?
2. That post wasn't intended to sway Nyxu beyond delaying my lynch so I could make a case.
3. I already stated that Nyxu is not scum and why. It's certainly between you and me.
4. Taredas putting in lots of effort to get you lynched means nothing if the plan was for the two of you to bus each other from the get-go.
I'm assuming you expect either/both of us to answer #1?
I knew DDS would be the nightkill from the point that the votecount was 2-2 and DDS didn't speedhammer ftw. He was already considered likely town by most of the living players, and at that point he became either definitely town or sadistic-scum-with-a-death-wish-trying-to-extend-the-game-for-his-own-strange-pleasure.
Um, I guess I don't quite understand the question, but my response is "who cares?" Not that it doesn't sound like a fun thought experiment, but I'm going to be hard-pressed enough just to finish my reread. So, sorry if I don't participate in this one atm.
Oh, I get it. Heh, very similar.
More questions:
Both: why would both scum vote in lylo if not to score a lynch
Cantrip why would taredas and swishh vote each other in lylo?
Swishh why would cantrip jump to vote you alongside taredas?
Since I seem to be on more often than swishh, do you want me to give him the opportunity to respond to some of these questions before I do? Does it matter to you?
Maybe to an extent. Since I know I'm town, I know that my answers are going to be honest town responses. Since I know swishh is scum, I don't want to provide honest town responses that he can just barn.
That said, I feel like I'm definitely the one on the ropes here, so it's not like I'm going to balk even if you specifically want me to answer before swishh does on some or all questions.
1. Why dds what? If you're asking why he was killed, it would only make sense as he was the only confirmed clear.
2. It was a rehashing of my thoughts from the game at that point. I don't take notes when I play mafia.
What?
Appeal to emotion.
Why would an ideal scum strategy be to bus each other at lylo when getting a town lynched would result in a scum win?
I don't understand the question addressed to us both. Are you saying scum may opt not to vote in lylo?
RE: #2 - because lynching me would result in a scum win yesterday.
I could conjure a number of hypothetical situations that this would happen, but as for this game:
One of three possibilities I can think of:
1. They figured that taking the more traditional route of holding off on votes until everyone was ready would drag out the day and possibly lead to their exposure, whereas voting each other would start people voting and maybe give them a quick win. This would be compounded by how town the remaining town players appeared toward each other. This doesn't make as much sense to me given how I played all game and the suspicion on you.
2. They'd been working on projecting an image of suspecting each other all game, so the logical path would be to vote each other, with the added bonus of giving massive town pants to the surviving scum if one was lynched. This is one of the things I'm watching for in my reread.
3. They just decided to try auto-bussing as a lylo strategy. I don't know that I've seen that before, so I don't know if it's known to be successful or a bad play.
I don't know that it's ideal, but I don't really know your experience level (I believe Taredas has significant experience on other sites), or if that kind of idea has been attempted (a lot or at all) in the past (with success or failure).
Maybe the two of you thought that path would be easier than trying to make a case against Nyxu, DDS, or myself. Especially if you managed to split the town players, which is what happened.
Now that I think about it, I was the only one swishh couldn't kill. Both you & DDS had logic-based town pants & killing me would have made it obvious. Again, with the 2 vs. 2 mentality of yesterDay and DDS making the "right" choice, DDS was the better nightkill.
Still working on the reread, but making progress. Hope to finish today sometime.
Both scum were voting YesterDay. Why would they -both- be voting, exposing themselves to the degree of scrutiny that they were?
I guess I don't understand how this is a different question.