As far as I know, vigilantes are a very basic role and used to be regular in basics, with a shot every night. They've only become less common because they can make the game more swingy and it generally won't last as long, so mods will limit shots. Especially in a bastard game that started with 13 players, though, I don't see anything wrong with a repeatable vig.
GM's theory could be a possibility but Occam says Arnn is town (unless CC'd).
Just checking in. I've done a brief read-through of everything up until this point, but it's 1:00am here and I don't feel confident of anything yet. Will continue to be V/LA until Monday (my wife is a 4th year med student and has a precious week of time between shifts this week, so I'm not wasting it). I'm sure you all have similar stories, so it's going to be hard to gauge anything until after the holiday. Also, wish me a Happy Birthday. I'm now officially older than my role models when I met them as a teenager.
I don't have much in the way of reads, anything I have to say has been said already. Here is what I'm thinking:
I don't trust Arnnaria's claim. Who claims 'just because'? I don't think an experienced player would do that, regardless of their chances of being a vigilante twice in a row, unless they want to be counter-claimed by the real vigilante or some other Power Role. Some of the other minor slips bother me, too (the initial phrasing of the question he asked TK makes it sound like he was a scum asking if his kill ability goes through if he's shot), but none of that is enough to make me vote yet.
I don't think it's worth debating the merits of whether or not Arnnaria could be the vig again all day. Any permutation of the ability is possible, and it's a waste of time speculating, especially with as complicated a game as this. It's a waste of time that the scum team can use to participate without potentially saying anything incriminating. I'd rather root out his buddy, which I'll start looking into in earnest when I'm not feeling like an insomniac.
I also think anyone who thought there should be a second RVS should be looked at closely. YesterDay did matter, and any individual who acts differently toDay should be looked at.
Assuming there were no scum on my wagon, one more vote put me in range of a quicklynch. I was effectively at L-1. Should a person not claim when they are at L-1?
The wording on my ability is as follows:
"During the Night, you may target another player to kill that player."
Assuming there were no scum on my wagon, one more vote put me in range of a quicklynch. I was effectively at L-1. Should a person not claim when they are at L-1?
The wording on my ability is as follows:
"During the Night, you may target another player to kill that player."
That's fine, but what makes you think a quick lynch was a viable option again? YesterDay the scum team didn't know for sure if there was a vigilante role, so it was worth the risk. ToDay it wouldn't have made sense to quick lynch you, as whoever the scum are know that there is a vigilante now. Until you claimed they had no idea it was you again today. By claiming to be the vigilante again, you've put yourself in an awkward position that does nothing to dissuade the scum but only serves to make it harder for the town to decide to lynch you, and to do it 'honestly', the town would have reveal someone with a power role to speak up for you.
Scum are far more likely to try starting wagons today than hammer existing wagons.
However, I'm not ready to actually vote for you yet.
I need to take a look back but my impression is that Jay was more willing to commit to votes in the last game. Could certainly be waffling in his first foray into scumness (afaik, I think he has only played this game and last Mod Mafia).
I have not had nearly as much time to keep up with this game while at my parents' as I had expected, but barring any unforeseen problems I'm headed home tomorrow (12/30) so I should be able to catch up on toDay's activity tomorrow night.
I have not had nearly as much time to keep up with this game while at my parents' as I had expected, but barring any unforeseen problems I'm headed home tomorrow (12/30) so I should be able to catch up on toDay's activity tomorrow night.
This is pretty much my situation as well. This should pick up some steam as everyone gets back from their various holiday vacations.
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Surprisingly enough, I am the town vig tonight as well. I already PM'ed TK a long time ago and asked if the Scum shoots me and I shoot someone else if the NK will go through and if the vig will go through simultaneously. He says it will, so I am willing to use my vig shot tonight as an extra vote.
Fixed.
Possible scum slip, I guess, but my view on the whole issue of your claim is simple. If you're really the vig, then you're really the vig. If you're lying scum, then the real vig shoots you. I'm content to leave you be for the time being.
Is this responding to me? Where are you seeing "I don't want to die even if I get scum killed too?" Who suggested revealing the doctor?
It was regarding Wildfire's statements where he said he didn't want to be quickhammered even if it meant scum got killed. Also the whole revealing the doctor thing was something I admitted I might have misinterpreted because I wasn't sure if he meant revealing the existence of a doctor, or revealing the doctor's identity. He didn't take the opportunity to clarify his statements, either.
Assuming there were no scum on my wagon, one more vote put me in range of a quicklynch. I was effectively at L-1. Should a person not claim when they are at L-1?
The wording on my ability is as follows:
"During the Night, you may target another player to kill that player."
That's fine, but what makes you think a quick lynch was a viable option again? YesterDay the scum team didn't know for sure if there was a vigilante role, so it was worth the risk. ToDay it wouldn't have made sense to quick lynch you, as whoever the scum are know that there is a vigilante now. Until you claimed they had no idea it was you again today. By claiming to be the vigilante again, you've put yourself in an awkward position that does nothing to dissuade the scum but only serves to make it harder for the town to decide to lynch you, and to do it 'honestly', the town would have reveal someone with a power role to speak up for you.
Scum are far more likely to try starting wagons today than hammer existing wagons.
However, I'm not ready to actually vote for you yet.
This reads like you're trying to throw suspicion onto him but are stopping short of actually committing to a vote. Pressing the Arnnaria issue isn't fruitful, anyway. I'm also not a fan of how you try to say "let's do something other than harangue Arnnaria" in one post, then proceed to post what I just quoted. Including a sentence on how you "don't think it's worth debating the merits of whether or not Arnnaria could be the vig again all day" only to throw suspicion onto the claim by insinuating he's scum. Right.
It was regarding Wildfire's statements where he said he didn't want to be quickhammered even if it meant scum got killed. Also the whole revealing the doctor thing was something I admitted I might have misinterpreted because I wasn't sure if he meant revealing the existence of a doctor, or revealing the doctor's identity. He didn't take the opportunity to clarify his statements, either.
Apologies, I had very little time to post at a computer last week, and it was difficult to address everything that I needed to with my phone.
Regarding the presence of a Vig: It seemed fairly obvious that there was one, as the hammering scum got shot last night. We could have tried to play it off as if we had killed our own guy, but what was really to be gained by that? In order to convince toDay's scum that there wasn't a vig (in an attempt to get them to out themselves in a quickhammer), we would have had to convince them that A) we had a compelling reason for killing ER ourselves, and B) we somehow knew that there wasn't a vig.
It's just a convoluted web of lies and deception that likely doesn't further us as town at all, and it would have come down with Arn's vig claim anyways.
Regarding outing the presence of a doctor: I touched on this in a few other posts, but the town knowing there's a doctor out there without the scum knowing who it is is tremendously beneficial. It means that Arn could safely reveal he's the vig without meaning he gets auto NK'd tonight.
As for anyone doubting Arn really is the vig... do we have a counterclaim from anyone? We know there is a vig, and no one else has come forward with reasonable evidence that it's NOT Arn. Continuing to debate this is just chasing our own tails at this point.
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This post is all kinds of bad. You are still deciding whether to continue the push on an unCCed vig? Yes his posts have been questionable but you seem to happily ignore the prospect he might be telling the truth snd just naturally scummy in tone.
I agree with sir Karn's vote there, Proph isn't about but voting dhockwave is like kicking a midget at the moment so
This reads like you're trying to throw suspicion onto him but are stopping short of actually committing to a vote. Pressing the Arnnaria issue isn't fruitful, anyway. I'm also not a fan of how you try to say "let's do something other than harangue Arnnaria" in one post, then proceed to post what I just quoted. Including a sentence on how you "don't think it's worth debating the merits of whether or not Arnnaria could be the vig again all day" only to throw suspicion onto the claim by insinuating he's scum. Right.
Vote Jay13x
I was just responding to Arnnaria's post between when I went to sleep and when I woke up, and commenting how it didn't make sense to out himself as the vigilante. The reason I didn't vote for him is because:
A) I am considering the possibility that he's telling the truth.
B) It's the holidays and I'm not going to risk a quick lynch on anyone because the scum can avoid posting with a legitimate. In the last game I played the scum used probable lies about their real-world availability to avoid detection for a while.
C) I'm giving other players time to counter-claim. I don't think we've seen everyone post since Day Two started, or at the very least it's primarily been about only half the players.
D) Now that I've re-read everything, I completely missed that there was a doctor role, which softens my opinion.
I need to take a look back but my impression is that Jay was more willing to commit to votes in the last game. Could certainly be waffling in his first foray into scumness (afaik, I think he has only played this game and last Mod Mafia).
More willing to commit to bad votes was the issue. And yes, this is only my second game of Mafia and I don't want to repeat my mistakes.
Especially because I've learned that dickish play doesn't equal scum. Otherwise I'd have voted for Sir Karn a while ago
@Blackvise: You realize that the post you put up doesn't have the words you said Arn said don't you?
That said I can't think of a good town reason why Arn would out of the blue claim vig. Here's some of my thoughts on it: (I feel some might be better left off just in case there is an off chance he is town doing this.)
1) Town true claim makes the least amount of sense as this gives scum the oppertunity to take out a town PR and make late game Lylo situations less swingy should they reroll as scum.
2) Town fake-claim, I could see this if he was wanting to give the mafia role cop something to investigate and waste his shot toDay, but this could also lead to [REDACTED].
3) Scum fake-claim, while still unlikely could lead to the latter part of the town fake claim scenario and my redacting there would be for nothing. Still runs the risk of becoming toDay's lynch doing so especially if an L-2 claim comes out, as I think it makes little sense for someone to outright claim in this game that way.
Also Unvote: RVS Karn, Vote:Arnaria
If you are town I think it would serve us well to not to try any Rodemy impersonations.
@Blackvise: You realize that the post you put up doesn't have the words you said Arn said don't you?
That said I can't think of a good town reason why Arn would out of the blue claim vig. Here's some of my thoughts on it: (I feel some might be better left off just in case there is an off chance he is town doing this.)
1) Town true claim makes the least amount of sense as this gives scum the oppertunity to take out a town PR and make late game Lylo situations less swingy should they reroll as scum.
2) Town fake-claim, I could see this if he was wanting to give the mafia role cop something to investigate and waste his shot toDay, but this could also lead to [REDACTED].
3) Scum fake-claim, while still unlikely could lead to the latter part of the town fake claim scenario and my redacting there would be for nothing. Still runs the risk of becoming toDay's lynch doing so especially if an L-2 claim comes out, as I think it makes little sense for someone to outright claim in this game that way.
Also Unvote: RVS Karn, Vote:Arnaria
If you are town I think it would serve us well to not to try any Rodemy impersonations.
He's well aware that there's a Doc in game. A true town claim makes sense, especially since if he got one more vote, he'd be in range of a quickhammer after claiming (which the scum would know would be safe since he's the vig).
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I'm looking at Jay, BV, and Shockwave right now as the likeliest scum suspects because they're still pushing the Arn-vig issue. I think I'm going to jump on the Jay-wagon. His last post reacting to the votes on him reads a bit scummy. Vote Jay13x
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Not even 400 posts old this game and we are at L-2 on day 2....
Did day 1 not happen for some of you? The fast lynch cost us valuable analysis and since there is no deadline why not allow for people to return and the game to flow?
I could understand your desire for speed yesterday wildfire given you are admitted scum from day 1, but now I have to wonder how unlucky you might have been in the new draw.
I want to hear from blackvise before I go any further with my enquiries, I asked him something and want his reply before I consider the vote.
I figured we were out of the woods on the fast lynch issue given the presence of the Vigilante. I was jumping on the wagon because it seemed reasonable, especially with people like you on it.
This is my first game, remember? I'm not really sure how these things are supposed to go. I figured you get someone to L-2, they claim, and things proceed from there. If that's not how we do things, alright, unvote.
Also, if I was scum again, my best move would have likely been to cast doubt on what Tom shared with you guys, rather than confirm it and add on.
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I'm looking at Jay, BV, and Shockwave right now as the likeliest scum suspects because they're still pushing the Arn-vig issue. I think I'm going to jump on the Jay-wagon. His last post reacting to the votes on him reads a bit scummy. Vote Jay13x
Not even 400 posts old this game and we are at L-2 on day 2....
Did day 1 not happen for some of you? The fast lynch cost us valuable analysis and since there is no deadline why not allow for people to return and the game to flow?
I could understand your desire for speed yesterday wildfire given you are admitted scum from day 1, but now I have to wonder how unlucky you might have been in the new draw.
I want to hear from blackvise before I go any further with my enquiries, I asked him something and want his reply before I consider the vote.
I figured we were out of the woods on the fast lynch issue given the presence of the Vigilante. I was jumping on the wagon because it seemed reasonable, especially with people like you on it.
This is my first game, remember? I'm not really sure how these things are supposed to go. I figured you get someone to L-2, they claim, and things proceed from there. If that's not how we do things, alright, unvote.
Also, if I was scum again, my best move would have likely been to cast doubt on what Tom shared with you guys, rather than confirm it and add on.
I could understand your desire for speed yesterday wildfire given you are admitted scum from day 1, but now I have to wonder how unlucky you might have been in the new draw.
I don't like how you just tried to paint me as scummy, and I don't like how you aren't voting or pressuring in general your scum reads. Show me the downside to voting a person you think is scummy.
@Jay: I think GM is scummy because he was pushing the unCC'd vig, then did an awkward backpedal, then he said he had to look back and reread you, followed by a post saying he was just waiting around.
I completely missed a couple pieces of information (like the Doctor) which I've explained changes my opinion. I'm not continuing to push anything, I was just putting my thoughts on the subject out there.
Did day 1 not happen for some of you? The fast lynch cost us valuable analysis and since there is no deadline why not allow for people to return and the game to flow?
I agree that there is no reason to rush, but where should we draw the line for claims? Should I have claimed at L-3 because L-4 is too risky? Or do we just wait for next week in real time.
Also how sure are you that you had any scum on your wagon? From my perspective you have been the scummiest opener if I remove annaria from the situation and blackvise's posts serve to only make me question your alignment further. Maybe that was his plan, I don't know, but until he has a response to give I work to preserve the game from a second fast lynch.
No one should want to claim, so no. I'm curious as to why you have been voting for anyone if you don't believe that claiming is helpful and are so worried about quick lynch, or why you'd think my reluctance to vote is scummy even though you don't want a quick lynch.
In any case, I think it's been long enough toDay for me to do some analysis. I apologize for any typos in advance:
Arnnaria: Done to death. Either he's the vig today, or he's running a brilliant gambit. I'm leaning town at this point.
Kaburi: Not enough posts to base anything on yet. I'm neutral on him, too.
Teia: I'm leaning town. Nothing in her posts strike me as suspicious or different from how she approached things yesterDay.
Tom: Being the first out of the gate with all the Day One Scum info makes him definitely Town today.
Sir Karn: in #288 and #303 sets off warning bells for me.
#303 - he implies he was the Doctor yesterday and that he saved Specific (unless you can thank me later meant over something else)
#288 - despite knowing what happened, he considers Tom not revealing the NK details enough to vote for.
#318 - despite having read Tom's original Day Two post clearly enough to post #288, he asks what roles are out there.
#324 - votes for Arnnaria for a completely valid comment, despite having asked for how the roles work himself, and having the two posts previous to him describe it to him, he still thinks that suspecting Wildfire as still being scum is worth voting for. This is the one piece of Arnnaria's posts I didn't question. I also find it odd, because as I noted he was the first person to push for the information that Arnnaria later pushed for, but on Arnnaria is was worth voting on.
#332 & #344 - This seems like a super weak ploy to ferret out scum. It has the side effect of also revealing potential town PRs that haven't been revealed yet.
#346 - He tells GM that his theory about Arnnaria being a scum claiming vig is an interesting, but then votes for me in #355 for essentially saying the same thing.
#387 - What does this even mean? Day One your posting style was aggressive but you at least always seemed to have a good analysis. ToDay I feel that analytical part of your posts is gone. Either way, you're tone has shifted and that makes me think you've swung scum.
Specific: #286 - Calls out Kaburi for speculating a scum team suicide, but then completely ignores Shockwave's post doing the exact same thing. #294 - Continues the RVS despite real discussions going on and already having made a substantive post.
My problem here is that with two people guiding one 'character', it makes it incredibly difficult to read. Probably town, or two people working very well together to make me think they are town.
Shockwave: #284 - Jumped on RVS Part II (which Tom started), which was a distraction, despite Tom having provided some solid info he chose not to comment on (besides the blockage part)
#290 - Just a smiley.
#316 and 317, responds to the comment about choosing a vanilla but contributes nothing to the ongoing conversation.
#349 - Adds essentially nothing to the ongoing Vig discussion
#359 - Another post that contributes nothing
#375 - Votes for Arnnaria after literally everyone else is off that wagon.
GM: #289 - For serious guys, additional RVS helps no one.
#297 - Looking for more specific role information
#309 & 310 - This reads like you were deliberately ignoring what had already been said all day.
#312 & 313 - Actual start of the Arnnaria train
#326 - Only votes for Arnnaria after two others have done so, despite not having much of an additional reason to do so.
#340 & 341 - Calls out Karn's ploy, Provides solid reasons for what he's doing
#360 - Drops Arnnaria, rightfully calls me out on my waffling.
Wildfire: #301 - Confirms Tom info. Mentions that a quickhammer isn't a real threat anymore.
#331 - 'If I were scum'. The problem with this argument is that Tom's info was independently verifiable by the people with roles who interacted overnight. If you had denied Tom's info, Tom would have provided more details and your lie would have eventually have been found out.
#333 & 334 - He seems to think the role cop was on our side, despite knowing it was a scum role from being scum the previous day. I'm two games in and I knew what he was doing. Either you were being dense, Wildfire, or though doth protest too much.
BV: #367 Reads like he only read one page back when he started posting toDay.
Looking at his overall posting history, it seems odd that his overall activity level was consistent since the Day started, but he only posted late in the discussion. Possible ploy, waiting for the right time to jump in?
TL;DR:
Leaning Town: Arnnaria, Teia, Tom
Neutral Read: Kaburi, Specific, Wildfire, GM
Leaning Scum: Sir Karn, Shockwave, BV
#303 - he implies he was the Doctor yesterday and that he saved Specific (unless you can thank me later meant over something else)
#288 - despite knowing what happened, he considers Tom not revealing the NK details enough to vote for.
Just realized I didn't clarify this bit on Sir Karn. I'm essentially asking what Sir Karn meant by you can thank me later. In context, it appears that he's claiming credit for the doctor role yesterday after Wildfire let that bit slip. And, if he was the doctor, I'm asking why he pressed on information he already knew, when that information would out a town PR.
Wildfire: #301 - Confirms Tom info. Mentions that a quickhammer isn't a real threat anymore.
#331 - 'If I were scum'. The problem with this argument is that Tom's info was independently verifiable by the people with roles who interacted overnight. If you had denied Tom's info, Tom would have provided more details and your lie would have eventually have been found out.
#333 & 334 - He seems to think the role cop was on our side, despite knowing it was a scum role from being scum the previous day. I'm two games in and I knew what he was doing. Either you were being dense, Wildfire, or though doth protest too much.
I was thinking that there's at least a decent chance that there's a role cop on the town side. We only know of the Doctor and the Vig, but it doesn't quite make sense that those are the only Town powers with the scum starting off with both a Role Cop and a Role Blocker.
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Curious Jay (although this question applies to everyone in the game as well): who would you like to see me shoot tonight?
(OOG Note: quitting smoking. Don't expect a ton of activity at previous levels for a couple weeks.)
I don't think anyone has currently displayed enough of a scum tell to be worth vigging (if they had, we'd be lynching them already). I think it's prudent to be extremely cautious with your vig shots.
If day went to night right this second (with no lynch), the appropriate move, in my opinion, is to do nothing. Anything else is effectively a 1:5 chance of hitting a mafia, a 1:5 (assuming there's at least one town PR we don't know yet) of hitting a power role, and a 3:5 chance of hitting a vanilla town.
If day went to night with a mislynch, things are even worse for us. You'd have as slightly higher chance of hitting a Mafia, but the downside of missing would be disastrous. We'd be down three town from today between the lynch, the vig, and the NK.
I think the best course of action is to hold the vig shot in reserve as a way of keeping people honest. It stops or punishes:
-Scum Quickhammering
-False counter-claiming (if we lynch the wrong one we can vig the right one)
-False cop claiming (if we lynch based on a falsified cop investigation claim we can vig the "cop")
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Unpacking from travels/New Year's party/packing away Christmas took way longer than I anticipated, so I'm just now starting to try and catch up on toDay's events. Expect a quasi-substantive tomorrow (1/2). That said, I do want to go ahead and respond to this now that I'm back:
Well, then. ER blew up in the night. Either the NK got blocked/redirected/reflected or the scum suicided to increase the odds of rerolling town. I'm going to have to think about this some more...later this week, because:
V/LA until at least 12/26
since I'm visiting the family for Christmas.
When you do return I will be having a chat with you about the rather odd theory that a mafia player would suicide, this locking them in this game as scum and at the same time reducing their chances of ultimately winning.
I will also be missing now until after Xmas, have a good one guys and I will pick this up with Proph in a few days.
~ G
Suicide is probably the wrong word. Let's say we have hypothetical scums A, B, and C. What I'm talking about is A and B deciding that they wanted to kill C instead of a townie (ostensibly because they want to lower their odds of rerolling scum by eliminating a scum from the role pool). I've never been scum, so I have no idea how nightkills work. Is that even legal?
It was just an observation because I didn't think about the possiblity of a vig, which explains ER dying overnight much more logically.
Curious Jay (although this question applies to everyone in the game as well): who would you like to see me shoot tonight?
(OOG Note: quitting smoking. Don't expect a ton of activity at previous levels for a couple weeks.)
Right now? I'm not confident enough of anyone to recommend you a vig shot. Sir Karn's tone has shifted from yesterDay into toDay (his curt style is the same but he's stopped explaining himself or reasoning things out publicly), and his aggressive attitude towards me required a response. Compare something like 171 to 355 and you get my point. But, I obviously don't know him as well as some of the other mods or the people I played MM8 with. The fact that he brushed off all the comments I posted regarding some of his own suspicious behavior put him at the forefront.
Make of what I noted what you will, I was just trying to pull out plausible arguments while I re-read toDay, but these reads are just first impressions. We don't have much from Kaburi yet to make a read, and Shockwave is new toDay so we don't have anything from yesterday to go off of. It's possible I'll think something completely different after the holidays.
Suicide is probably the wrong word. Let's say we have hypothetical scums A, B, and C. What I'm talking about is A and B deciding that they wanted to kill C instead of a townie (ostensibly because they want to lower their odds of rerolling scum by eliminating a scum from the role pool). I've never been scum, so I have no idea how nightkills work. Is that even legal?
It was just an observation because I didn't think about the possiblity of a vig, which explains ER dying overnight much more logically.
We actually discussed doing this, along with bussing one of the scum, but decided against it for a few reasons:
1) It's against the spirit of the game.
2) It meant that two of us were guaranteed going to die, whereas if we worked together, there was a fairly high chance we'd all make it to day 2 (the presence of a vig threw this off) and likely reroll as town.
We never got to the point of deciding to go ahead with it so we never asked if it was a possible move.
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BV: Looks like Specific has covered what I started to write here about how the Arnnaria wagon started off making sense and then ran its course.
Tom technically can't OMGUS you since you didn't vote for him.
Tom: I still haven't looked back at Jay's other game btw
Wildfire in 397: Answering questions for other people and playing the probability game are not productive. Some would consider them scum tells but I think you're still just new.
I love watching scum buddies try to bus each other
BV doesn't answer me, again tries to make me look scummy with false "OMGUS", says GM is suspicious and then votes Jay... "for now".
He's throwing suspicion on multiple players, but doesn't pressure them as he tries to keep his options open. Until his half-hearted Jay vote with which he includes a convenient back door clause.
Wildfire in 397: Answering questions for other people and playing the probability game are not productive. Some would consider them scum tells but I think you're still just new.
He did say "This question applies to anyone else". It sounded to me like he was legitimately asking for advice on how to use his vig shot.
I'm liking BlackVise right now as scum. His last post, despite the (valid) excuses in it, reads a lot like "I'm just going to jump on the only real current wagon because".
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Wildfire in 397: Answering questions for other people and playing the probability game are not productive. Some would consider them scum tells but I think you're still just new.
He did say "This question applies to anyone else". It sounded to me like he was legitimately asking for advice on how to use his vig shot.
I'm liking BlackVise right now as scum. His last post, despite the (valid) excuses in it, reads a lot like "I'm just going to jump on the only real current wagon because".
You are correct Wildfire. The question first came to me when I read Jay's scum/town list, but the question applies to anyone who has an opinion. I'm all for using it as a second vote, but we'd actually have to start having a second vote tally if we are going to go through with that.
Apologies, on re-read for some reason I attributed Teia's post calling me out on not voting being suspicious to you. I'll talk about this more in my reply to your other post.
Annaria was at L-3, the claim came in, was unCCed and sir karn had left the wagon, yet you were STILL pressing how scummy annaria was. You then sai you aren't ready to vote for him yet he had been your total focus that post. I voted gut you because you appeared to be trying stop the heat on annarias wagon dying out yet didn't want to be so blatant as to push the wagon back up by 1.
And as I pointed out with regards to you 'dipping the toe' you have seen pubic reaction to annaria and he's now leaning town?
Sorry but you can't do that. You have spent the whole time pressing how his claim is a lie, hit a backlash of votes and in your analysis of the players you handwave any detail about him with a 'it's been said already' type comment and now are town reading him? Where was that lightbulb moment exactly?
... I made two posts about it, which is hardly 'the whole time'. The first was at 2am my time and I had missed the doctor information because I quickly read through everything that had happened during the Day. The other was 8 hours later responding to Arnnaria's comment overnight. When I came back and saw all your posts replying to me, I commented on why I had talked about it and why I realized I was wrong.
As far as being selective in who I picked, I looked at everyone but only posted on what I found weird. I've already talked about Arnnaria, and commented why I changed my mind. Kaburi literally has posted nothing substantive yet. Teia was because I literally had no reads on her. Tom might have been a bad call, but I've got nothing. I didn't read anything that I considered contradictory or valid for suspicion.
Yeah that's not cool. Between moderating four areas of the site plus global duties, Mafia is the least of my priorities on site; add in the festive period and this just hasn't been my biggest priority recently.
I'm still suspicious of GM, but for now vote Jay13x. I've only done a brief read of things since my V/LA, so I'll catch up in more detail later.
No offense intended. I was only suggesting it because it seemed to be what one of the scum from MM8 did (I think it was Ria, very little activity, constantly posting late, claiming the reason was that he was busy and then being indignant when people called him on it). Obviously, you're busy, but I had to consider it as a possibility. I looked at activity for all the late/little posters.
Just found teia, and 369 is very much a town players post. And she makes a very salient point about jay, and it seems it was her castigating a lack of a vote from you may, not us, and she is a town read of yours.
The plot thickens.
~ G
I misattributed the call out of my vote to you, not her. Still doesn't change my opinion, as I didn't include it in my list of reads, just as an offhand comment/question to you. Just because someone thinks I'm scummy doesn't mean I automatically assume they are scummy, I made that mistake in my first game.
Responding to the pile of bull**** you stuck my name on is not worth my time.
Classy.
We know there was a doctor role yesterday, at this point. It's the reason I changed my mind about Arnnaria. I'm not asking for details, just whether or not I misread your comment.
Anyone still at a loss as to whether sir karn is town or not should look at his attitude.
The arrogance and dismissiveness is town fueled.
Not seeing it. I have little tolerance for arrogance, and I cannot see that kind of attitude as townie. I guess that's the difference between the "experienced" "good" players and me, and why I will never play in a non modfia game. When people start getting arrogant, I immediately go on tilt (see me vs. Void in MM8). If a player wants to respond to false accusations, they should make arguments and present their case. Being a dismissive douche is not productive or helpful for either side.
(Not calling you a douche, Karn. This is just one of my hot buttons that I rant about at least oncetwice thrice per modfia.)
GM's theory could be a possibility but Occam says Arnn is town (unless CC'd).
I don't have much in the way of reads, anything I have to say has been said already. Here is what I'm thinking:
I don't trust Arnnaria's claim. Who claims 'just because'? I don't think an experienced player would do that, regardless of their chances of being a vigilante twice in a row, unless they want to be counter-claimed by the real vigilante or some other Power Role. Some of the other minor slips bother me, too (the initial phrasing of the question he asked TK makes it sound like he was a scum asking if his kill ability goes through if he's shot), but none of that is enough to make me vote yet.
I don't think it's worth debating the merits of whether or not Arnnaria could be the vig again all day. Any permutation of the ability is possible, and it's a waste of time speculating, especially with as complicated a game as this. It's a waste of time that the scum team can use to participate without potentially saying anything incriminating. I'd rather root out his buddy, which I'll start looking into in earnest when I'm not feeling like an insomniac.
I also think anyone who thought there should be a second RVS should be looked at closely. YesterDay did matter, and any individual who acts differently toDay should be looked at.
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Assuming there were no scum on my wagon, one more vote put me in range of a quicklynch. I was effectively at L-1. Should a person not claim when they are at L-1?
The wording on my ability is as follows:
That's fine, but what makes you think a quick lynch was a viable option again? YesterDay the scum team didn't know for sure if there was a vigilante role, so it was worth the risk. ToDay it wouldn't have made sense to quick lynch you, as whoever the scum are know that there is a vigilante now. Until you claimed they had no idea it was you again today. By claiming to be the vigilante again, you've put yourself in an awkward position that does nothing to dissuade the scum but only serves to make it harder for the town to decide to lynch you, and to do it 'honestly', the town would have reveal someone with a power role to speak up for you.
Scum are far more likely to try starting wagons today than hammer existing wagons.
However, I'm not ready to actually vote for you yet.
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What
Jay you aren't making any sense.
Vote: Jay
SCUM!
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Unvote
I need to take a look back but my impression is that Jay was more willing to commit to votes in the last game. Could certainly be waffling in his first foray into scumness (afaik, I think he has only played this game and last Mod Mafia).
Sir Karn (1) - Shockwave07
Jay13x (2) - Sir Karn, Specific
Not Voting (8) - Jay13x, kaburi, Gerrard's Mom, Teia Rabishu, Arnnaria, Tom, Wildfire393, BlackVise
With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch
Also, now that the holidays are over I'll be checking to make sure everyone has posted at least once by the 30th. Then the prods shall be issued!
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This is pretty much my situation as well. This should pick up some steam as everyone gets back from their various holiday vacations.
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vote: Gerrard's Mom
Possible scum slip, I guess, but my view on the whole issue of your claim is simple. If you're really the vig, then you're really the vig. If you're lying scum, then the real vig shoots you. I'm content to leave you be for the time being.
It was regarding Wildfire's statements where he said he didn't want to be quickhammered even if it meant scum got killed. Also the whole revealing the doctor thing was something I admitted I might have misinterpreted because I wasn't sure if he meant revealing the existence of a doctor, or revealing the doctor's identity. He didn't take the opportunity to clarify his statements, either.
This reads like you're trying to throw suspicion onto him but are stopping short of actually committing to a vote. Pressing the Arnnaria issue isn't fruitful, anyway. I'm also not a fan of how you try to say "let's do something other than harangue Arnnaria" in one post, then proceed to post what I just quoted. Including a sentence on how you "don't think it's worth debating the merits of whether or not Arnnaria could be the vig again all day" only to throw suspicion onto the claim by insinuating he's scum. Right.
Vote Jay13x
Apologies, I had very little time to post at a computer last week, and it was difficult to address everything that I needed to with my phone.
Regarding the presence of a Vig: It seemed fairly obvious that there was one, as the hammering scum got shot last night. We could have tried to play it off as if we had killed our own guy, but what was really to be gained by that? In order to convince toDay's scum that there wasn't a vig (in an attempt to get them to out themselves in a quickhammer), we would have had to convince them that A) we had a compelling reason for killing ER ourselves, and B) we somehow knew that there wasn't a vig.
It's just a convoluted web of lies and deception that likely doesn't further us as town at all, and it would have come down with Arn's vig claim anyways.
Regarding outing the presence of a doctor: I touched on this in a few other posts, but the town knowing there's a doctor out there without the scum knowing who it is is tremendously beneficial. It means that Arn could safely reveal he's the vig without meaning he gets auto NK'd tonight.
As for anyone doubting Arn really is the vig... do we have a counterclaim from anyone? We know there is a vig, and no one else has come forward with reasonable evidence that it's NOT Arn. Continuing to debate this is just chasing our own tails at this point.
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I was just responding to Arnnaria's post between when I went to sleep and when I woke up, and commenting how it didn't make sense to out himself as the vigilante. The reason I didn't vote for him is because:
A) I am considering the possibility that he's telling the truth.
B) It's the holidays and I'm not going to risk a quick lynch on anyone because the scum can avoid posting with a legitimate. In the last game I played the scum used probable lies about their real-world availability to avoid detection for a while.
C) I'm giving other players time to counter-claim. I don't think we've seen everyone post since Day Two started, or at the very least it's primarily been about only half the players.
D) Now that I've re-read everything, I completely missed that there was a doctor role, which softens my opinion.
More willing to commit to bad votes was the issue. And yes, this is only my second game of Mafia and I don't want to repeat my mistakes.
Especially because I've learned that dickish play doesn't equal scum. Otherwise I'd have voted for Sir Karn a while ago
Care to elaborate on why GM? Especially when you're calling out BV?
And Shockwave, why are you still voting for Sir Karn? You've posted many times since your 'RVS Round Two' post.
I want to see some comments from Kaburi before I make any decisions.
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That said I can't think of a good town reason why Arn would out of the blue claim vig. Here's some of my thoughts on it: (I feel some might be better left off just in case there is an off chance he is town doing this.)
1) Town true claim makes the least amount of sense as this gives scum the oppertunity to take out a town PR and make late game Lylo situations less swingy should they reroll as scum.
2) Town fake-claim, I could see this if he was wanting to give the mafia role cop something to investigate and waste his shot toDay, but this could also lead to [REDACTED].
3) Scum fake-claim, while still unlikely could lead to the latter part of the town fake claim scenario and my redacting there would be for nothing. Still runs the risk of becoming toDay's lynch doing so especially if an L-2 claim comes out, as I think it makes little sense for someone to outright claim in this game that way.
Also Unvote: RVS Karn, Vote:Arnaria
If you are town I think it would serve us well to not to try any Rodemy impersonations.
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He's well aware that there's a Doc in game. A true town claim makes sense, especially since if he got one more vote, he'd be in range of a quickhammer after claiming (which the scum would know would be safe since he's the vig).
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Scum true-claim?
Vote Count:
Jay13x (3) - Sir Karn, Specific, Teia Rabishu
Gerrard's Mom (1) - Tom
Arnnaria (1) - Shockwave07
Not Voting (6) - Jay13x, kaburi, Gerrard's Mom, Arnnaria, Wildfire393, BlackVise
With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch
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Vote Jay13x
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I figured we were out of the woods on the fast lynch issue given the presence of the Vigilante. I was jumping on the wagon because it seemed reasonable, especially with people like you on it.
This is my first game, remember? I'm not really sure how these things are supposed to go. I figured you get someone to L-2, they claim, and things proceed from there. If that's not how we do things, alright, unvote.
Also, if I was scum again, my best move would have likely been to cast doubt on what Tom shared with you guys, rather than confirm it and add on.
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.
I don't like how you just tried to paint me as scummy, and I don't like how you aren't voting or pressuring in general your scum reads. Show me the downside to voting a person you think is scummy.
@Jay: I think GM is scummy because he was pushing the unCC'd vig, then did an awkward backpedal, then he said he had to look back and reread you, followed by a post saying he was just waiting around.
I agree that there is no reason to rush, but where should we draw the line for claims? Should I have claimed at L-3 because L-4 is too risky? Or do we just wait for next week in real time.
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No one should want to claim, so no. I'm curious as to why you have been voting for anyone if you don't believe that claiming is helpful and are so worried about quick lynch, or why you'd think my reluctance to vote is scummy even though you don't want a quick lynch.
In any case, I think it's been long enough toDay for me to do some analysis. I apologize for any typos in advance:
Arnnaria: Done to death. Either he's the vig today, or he's running a brilliant gambit. I'm leaning town at this point.
Kaburi: Not enough posts to base anything on yet. I'm neutral on him, too.
Teia: I'm leaning town. Nothing in her posts strike me as suspicious or different from how she approached things yesterDay.
Tom: Being the first out of the gate with all the Day One Scum info makes him definitely Town today.
Sir Karn: in #288 and #303 sets off warning bells for me.
#303 - he implies he was the Doctor yesterday and that he saved Specific (unless you can thank me later meant over something else)
#288 - despite knowing what happened, he considers Tom not revealing the NK details enough to vote for.
#318 - despite having read Tom's original Day Two post clearly enough to post #288, he asks what roles are out there.
#324 - votes for Arnnaria for a completely valid comment, despite having asked for how the roles work himself, and having the two posts previous to him describe it to him, he still thinks that suspecting Wildfire as still being scum is worth voting for. This is the one piece of Arnnaria's posts I didn't question. I also find it odd, because as I noted he was the first person to push for the information that Arnnaria later pushed for, but on Arnnaria is was worth voting on.
#332 & #344 - This seems like a super weak ploy to ferret out scum. It has the side effect of also revealing potential town PRs that haven't been revealed yet.
#346 - He tells GM that his theory about Arnnaria being a scum claiming vig is an interesting, but then votes for me in #355 for essentially saying the same thing.
#387 - What does this even mean? Day One your posting style was aggressive but you at least always seemed to have a good analysis. ToDay I feel that analytical part of your posts is gone. Either way, you're tone has shifted and that makes me think you've swung scum.
Specific: #286 - Calls out Kaburi for speculating a scum team suicide, but then completely ignores Shockwave's post doing the exact same thing. #294 - Continues the RVS despite real discussions going on and already having made a substantive post.
My problem here is that with two people guiding one 'character', it makes it incredibly difficult to read. Probably town, or two people working very well together to make me think they are town.
Shockwave: #284 - Jumped on RVS Part II (which Tom started), which was a distraction, despite Tom having provided some solid info he chose not to comment on (besides the blockage part)
#290 - Just a smiley.
#316 and 317, responds to the comment about choosing a vanilla but contributes nothing to the ongoing conversation.
#349 - Adds essentially nothing to the ongoing Vig discussion
#359 - Another post that contributes nothing
#375 - Votes for Arnnaria after literally everyone else is off that wagon.
GM: #289 - For serious guys, additional RVS helps no one.
#297 - Looking for more specific role information
#309 & 310 - This reads like you were deliberately ignoring what had already been said all day.
#312 & 313 - Actual start of the Arnnaria train
#326 - Only votes for Arnnaria after two others have done so, despite not having much of an additional reason to do so.
#340 & 341 - Calls out Karn's ploy, Provides solid reasons for what he's doing
#360 - Drops Arnnaria, rightfully calls me out on my waffling.
Wildfire: #301 - Confirms Tom info. Mentions that a quickhammer isn't a real threat anymore.
#331 - 'If I were scum'. The problem with this argument is that Tom's info was independently verifiable by the people with roles who interacted overnight. If you had denied Tom's info, Tom would have provided more details and your lie would have eventually have been found out.
#333 & 334 - He seems to think the role cop was on our side, despite knowing it was a scum role from being scum the previous day. I'm two games in and I knew what he was doing. Either you were being dense, Wildfire, or though doth protest too much.
BV: #367 Reads like he only read one page back when he started posting toDay.
Looking at his overall posting history, it seems odd that his overall activity level was consistent since the Day started, but he only posted late in the discussion. Possible ploy, waiting for the right time to jump in?
TL;DR:
Leaning Town: Arnnaria, Teia, Tom
Neutral Read: Kaburi, Specific, Wildfire, GM
Leaning Scum: Sir Karn, Shockwave, BV
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Just realized I didn't clarify this bit on Sir Karn. I'm essentially asking what Sir Karn meant by you can thank me later. In context, it appears that he's claiming credit for the doctor role yesterday after Wildfire let that bit slip. And, if he was the doctor, I'm asking why he pressed on information he already knew, when that information would out a town PR.
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Vote Sir Karn
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(OOG Note: quitting smoking. Don't expect a ton of activity at previous levels for a couple weeks.)
I was thinking that there's at least a decent chance that there's a role cop on the town side. We only know of the Doctor and the Vig, but it doesn't quite make sense that those are the only Town powers with the scum starting off with both a Role Cop and a Role Blocker.
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I don't think anyone has currently displayed enough of a scum tell to be worth vigging (if they had, we'd be lynching them already). I think it's prudent to be extremely cautious with your vig shots.
If day went to night right this second (with no lynch), the appropriate move, in my opinion, is to do nothing. Anything else is effectively a 1:5 chance of hitting a mafia, a 1:5 (assuming there's at least one town PR we don't know yet) of hitting a power role, and a 3:5 chance of hitting a vanilla town.
If day went to night with a mislynch, things are even worse for us. You'd have as slightly higher chance of hitting a Mafia, but the downside of missing would be disastrous. We'd be down three town from today between the lynch, the vig, and the NK.
I think the best course of action is to hold the vig shot in reserve as a way of keeping people honest. It stops or punishes:
-Scum Quickhammering
-False counter-claiming (if we lynch the wrong one we can vig the right one)
-False cop claiming (if we lynch based on a falsified cop investigation claim we can vig the "cop")
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Suicide is probably the wrong word. Let's say we have hypothetical scums A, B, and C. What I'm talking about is A and B deciding that they wanted to kill C instead of a townie (ostensibly because they want to lower their odds of rerolling scum by eliminating a scum from the role pool). I've never been scum, so I have no idea how nightkills work. Is that even legal?
It was just an observation because I didn't think about the possiblity of a vig, which explains ER dying overnight much more logically.
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Right now? I'm not confident enough of anyone to recommend you a vig shot. Sir Karn's tone has shifted from yesterDay into toDay (his curt style is the same but he's stopped explaining himself or reasoning things out publicly), and his aggressive attitude towards me required a response. Compare something like 171 to 355 and you get my point. But, I obviously don't know him as well as some of the other mods or the people I played MM8 with. The fact that he brushed off all the comments I posted regarding some of his own suspicious behavior put him at the forefront.
Make of what I noted what you will, I was just trying to pull out plausible arguments while I re-read toDay, but these reads are just first impressions. We don't have much from Kaburi yet to make a read, and Shockwave is new toDay so we don't have anything from yesterday to go off of. It's possible I'll think something completely different after the holidays.
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Sir Karn (1) - Jay13x
Jay13x (2) - Sir Karn, Teia Rabishu
Arnnaria (1) - Shockwave07
BlackVise (1) - Tom
Not Voting (6) - Specific, kaburi, Gerrard's Mom, Arnnaria, Wildfire393, BlackVise
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We actually discussed doing this, along with bussing one of the scum, but decided against it for a few reasons:
1) It's against the spirit of the game.
2) It meant that two of us were guaranteed going to die, whereas if we worked together, there was a fairly high chance we'd all make it to day 2 (the presence of a vig threw this off) and likely reroll as town.
We never got to the point of deciding to go ahead with it so we never asked if it was a possible move.
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Responding to the pile of bull**** you stuck my name on is not worth my time.
not sure how busy I'll be at work but I'll try to catch up by weekend
BV: Looks like Specific has covered what I started to write here about how the Arnnaria wagon started off making sense and then ran its course.
Tom technically can't OMGUS you since you didn't vote for him.
Tom: I still haven't looked back at Jay's other game btw
Wildfire in 397: Answering questions for other people and playing the probability game are not productive. Some would consider them scum tells but I think you're still just new.
I love watching scum buddies try to bus each other
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He's throwing suspicion on multiple players, but doesn't pressure them as he tries to keep his options open. Until his half-hearted Jay vote with which he includes a convenient back door clause.
I want him lynched.
He did say "This question applies to anyone else". It sounded to me like he was legitimately asking for advice on how to use his vig shot.
I'm liking BlackVise right now as scum. His last post, despite the (valid) excuses in it, reads a lot like "I'm just going to jump on the only real current wagon because".
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You are correct Wildfire. The question first came to me when I read Jay's scum/town list, but the question applies to anyone who has an opinion. I'm all for using it as a second vote, but we'd actually have to start having a second vote tally if we are going to go through with that.
Apologies, on re-read for some reason I attributed Teia's post calling me out on not voting being suspicious to you. I'll talk about this more in my reply to your other post.
... I made two posts about it, which is hardly 'the whole time'. The first was at 2am my time and I had missed the doctor information because I quickly read through everything that had happened during the Day. The other was 8 hours later responding to Arnnaria's comment overnight. When I came back and saw all your posts replying to me, I commented on why I had talked about it and why I realized I was wrong.
In fact, I already talked about it here.
As far as being selective in who I picked, I looked at everyone but only posted on what I found weird. I've already talked about Arnnaria, and commented why I changed my mind. Kaburi literally has posted nothing substantive yet. Teia was because I literally had no reads on her. Tom might have been a bad call, but I've got nothing. I didn't read anything that I considered contradictory or valid for suspicion.
No offense intended. I was only suggesting it because it seemed to be what one of the scum from MM8 did (I think it was Ria, very little activity, constantly posting late, claiming the reason was that he was busy and then being indignant when people called him on it). Obviously, you're busy, but I had to consider it as a possibility. I looked at activity for all the late/little posters.
I misattributed the call out of my vote to you, not her. Still doesn't change my opinion, as I didn't include it in my list of reads, just as an offhand comment/question to you. Just because someone thinks I'm scummy doesn't mean I automatically assume they are scummy, I made that mistake in my first game.
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Classy.
We know there was a doctor role yesterday, at this point. It's the reason I changed my mind about Arnnaria. I'm not asking for details, just whether or not I misread your comment.
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Not seeing it. I have little tolerance for arrogance, and I cannot see that kind of attitude as townie. I guess that's the difference between the "experienced" "good" players and me, and why I will never play in a non modfia game. When people start getting arrogant, I immediately go on tilt (see me vs. Void in MM8). If a player wants to respond to false accusations, they should make arguments and present their case. Being a dismissive douche is not productive or helpful for either side.
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