Roleblockers are as often scum as town. He can't confirm himself, and he hasn't been acting any less scummy/liar because he's a roleblocker.
I fail to understand why that claim makes him less scummy. Anyone?
I'm half inclined to agree with you here. But on the plus side, if we get towards the latter part of the game, and there's still no dead mafia RBer, we might have a free lynch/vig target.
It's also conceivable that we can direct his RB somewhere that might confirm him: if the scum get locked in on targeting a townie night role, we can have him target someone else. So long as the mafia don't have two Rbers, we'd have confirmation that he's a townie version.
The whole "bird in hand" aspect is still tempting me to go peek at his other game and see what I can find, but it might be safe to gamble on possible confirmation, or using the vig later on to get ahead. This is a pretty target-rich environment, with a variety of people begging for lynch attention, so a slightly more aggressive strategy might not hurt.
Oh. Do we want him to claim his targets, as the game progreses? We'll be able to track whether we get any simultaneous RBs, and strike people off the SK list.
MD and Chucklez have both been fairly scummy..on Chucklez part, this is largely due to inactivity..but MD has been fairly active and scummy, which seems alot worse to me. Plus, his role has as much chance of being on scum as on town, where as Chucklez role, if he's telling the truth about it, probably wouldn't be on a mafioso(though it's highly possible that he just altered what the ability actually is and kept the 'Pantheon Check' aspect of it). MD's role is also much more likely to be detrimental to the town if he's scum.
Well, I definitely think we shouldn't lynch MD at this point.
Question, however, did you attempt to block anyone Night 0? I don't want you to say who (yet), just if you did or not.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
MD and Chucklez have both been fairly scummy..on Chucklez part, this is largely due to inactivity..but MD has been fairly active and scummy, which seems alot worse to me. Plus, his role has as much chance of being on scum as on town, where as Chucklez role, if he's telling the truth about it, probably wouldn't be on a mafioso(though it's highly possible that he just altered what the ability actually is and kept the 'Pantheon Check' aspect of it). MD's role is also much more likely to be detrimental to the town if he's scum.
This is horrible reasoning, Cyan. First of all, you claim that MD is scummier than Chucklez because he has avoided a significant scum tell that Chuck is guilty of. Then you claim that a mafia Chuck claiming doc is probably telling the truth. And your last point outright assumes that Chuck is telling the truth.
Do you know something we don't? Or are you just trying to get MD lynched over Chuck for reasons of your own? The more this goes on, the more convinced I am that MD just isn't realistically scum. It just doesn't fit with the behavior of the people around him.
I'm happy with my vote on Abso, but I'd almost be willing to vote for Chuck based on your pretense of not defending him here.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Maybe you're just misunderstanding what I'm saying.
I said that, if Chucklez is telling the truth, it's pretty likely that he's town. Of course, it's very possible that he's not telling the truth, that he has some other ability that only works at a % chance, based on how many Gods from his Pantheon are alive, and he just changed it to be a Faith Healer to seem more town.
However, assuming that MD is telling the truth about his role, there is no reason to believe that it is town vs. scum, as there is an equal probability of his role being town or scum.
Also, the main cause for suspicion on Chucklez is that he lurks alot, and obviously I agree that this is more likely to occur on a scum than on a townie. However, there's still the possibility that he's a townie and just doesn't care enough to participate more(which should still get him lynched if there are no better candidates). And you're right, MD hasn't really been lurking..he's been posting, but still seems ridiculously scummy. Honestly, he would probably seem LESS scummy if he was a lurker..but his post, in general, could probably re-write the book on 'scum tells'. That's why I think he's the best candidate for a lynch today(and I think that Chucklez is the second best).
Also, the main cause for suspicion on Chucklez is that he lurks alot
Er... have we been reading the same game? As far as I'm concerned, the main cause for suspicion on Chucklez is the ridiculously scummy things he spews out whenever he does post.
Also, if you think MD is the best candidate for a lynch, why did you switch to voting Chuck?
Because, for the most part, people seem inclined to let MD live today, and I would rather see that someone officially gets lynched(as I feel that more information is gained off of a real lynch than a deadline-forced lynch), even if it's not the scummiest person. Seems better than just stubbornly sitting my vote on MD and dragging things down. Also, if helps that it's Chucklez, whom has definetely been scummy himself(just nowhere near as much as MD, IMO).
Cyan, CC and MS for massive amounts of vote switching. Abso, Treigit, MD, and Krash, for making my scumdar spin around in circles. Aurora had my scumdar skip just a little bit.
@Az: Ask and you so shall recieve: Spoilered are every major bandwagon in order of who voted and unvoted. (these are unedited and straight out of my notes)
Look at post 915 (or so) and look at DYH's .doc's for a decent look at the votes.
Well, my strikeouts didn't carry over from Word, and that tag is a pain in the butt, so pretty much if the name comes up a second time it's an unvote. 3rd a revote, etc. (I know that looks ugly, but it's my first real substant post.
an aside, posts 699 and 1106 are the funniest posts in the thread.
Claim List:
MD: Isis- Roleblocker
Treigit: Chutulu
Abso: Fen-Vanilla
Chuck: Eirene
Aurora: Same "pantheon" as Abso.
Any missing claims can be added (I'm known to have an average of one missed claim)
Any reason we aren't continuing our look into AH? I know it got derailed by the MD fiasco, but now that we're in a Post-Claimed MD world, why are we going back to old favorites like Chuck and Abso?
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Maybe you're just misunderstanding what I'm saying.
I said that, if Chucklez is telling the truth, it's pretty likely that he's town. Of course, it's very possible that he's not telling the truth, that he has some other ability that only works at a % chance, based on how many Gods from his Pantheon are alive, and he just changed it to be a Faith Healer to seem more town.
However, assuming that MD is telling the truth about his role, there is no reason to believe that it is town vs. scum, as there is an equal probability of his role being town or scum.
Also, the main cause for suspicion on Chucklez is that he lurks alot, and obviously I agree that this is more likely to occur on a scum than on a townie. However, there's still the possibility that he's a townie and just doesn't care enough to participate more(which should still get him lynched if there are no better candidates). And you're right, MD hasn't really been lurking..he's been posting, but still seems ridiculously scummy. Honestly, he would probably seem LESS scummy if he was a lurker..but his post, in general, could probably re-write the book on 'scum tells'. That's why I think he's the best candidate for a lynch today(and I think that Chucklez is the second best).
You're making the assumption that these people are telling the truth. If Chucklez is telling the truth, of course he's town; there are no mafia healers. That means nothing. We differentiate between liars and truth-tellers, not who has the more townie claim.
If we take MD's claim to be true, then there is a good chance he is mafia. But the best play wouldn't be to lynch him, it would be to suppress or command his ability (thus either confirming him or denying the mafia's roleblocks).
If we lynch him either:
The mafia loses a member and a RBer; or
The town loses a member and a RBer.
If we command his ability either;
The mafia's RBer stops blocking to avoid confirming MD; or
MD (mafia)'s roleblock is in the hands of the town; or
The mafia's RBer strikes, helping confirm MD.
There is no losing in the second situation. While the first situation offers greater rewards, I think its unnecessarily risky.
This is only if we take his claim to be true. Which I do, because it can be confirmed.
And scummy play doesn't mean best lynch target. Many times has the scummiest player had a rock-solid claim that prevented their lynching. MD's claim isn't rock-solid, but it's solid enough for me to trust for now.
I'm half inclined to agree with you here. But on the plus side, if we get towards the latter part of the game, and there's still no dead mafia RBer, we might have a free lynch/vig target.
It's also conceivable that we can direct his RB somewhere that might confirm him: if the scum get locked in on targeting a townie night role, we can have him target someone else. So long as the mafia don't have two Rbers, we'd have confirmation that he's a townie version.
I'm having flashbacks to cp in Sin City, scum roleblocker whose ability was outed to the town from day 3 onwards (and thus had to be able to justify his targets). His choice of roleblocks had nothing to do with why he was eventually lynched. Especially with such little info out there, how do you intend to "confirm" MD or not by his ability use? In this situation, he could even justify blocking a potential doctor given all the suspicion on Chuckles.
Speculating that he's safe if not counterclaimed by another roleblocker is assuming the set-up and fishing for that roleblocker to come out. Speculating that he's NOT safe if counterclaimed also sucks, actually, there could potentially be two town roleblockers in a game this size. Random set-up speculation is horrible grounds to base a lynch on, let alone give a scummy player a free pass for multiple days until we find/don't find another scum roleblocker.
And you of all players know this, Az, because you know there were 2 scum roleblockers in Sin City (similar size game to this), and both of us survived to the very late game. But I forgive your poor logic- you're just protecting your scum buddy MD
Basically, MD has apparently been... economical with the truth... at best, lying at worst. He's tried to present the newbie card, gone off explosive-newbie style when initially pressured (which fits), but has then come over all confident and relaxed once he got that initial panic out of the way and the heat went off. He refused to claim in a manner which looked as if he was fishing for info on CC's role.
And he seems intent on bandwagonning anything that's not him and has momentum, without actually doing anything like reasons.
We had 11 votes on him, he claims roleblocker, votes have gone running over to Abso. Why the shift back to Abso? Because he's lurking again, apparently. Which is annoying, but not that high on my list of reasons to lynch people.
This whole movement screams of a scum deadline wagon here. Pre-MD, people were on AH or else against a whole range of targets. Post-MD, there's suddenly a line zeroing in on Abso. I don't believe everyone has independently decided he's most scummy when they didn't think that before the MD wagon. This is a set-up.
Actually, I was just waiting for CC's word because I trust him. Maybe it's his vehement defense of me, or just his logic on things in general, but I was feeling confused and pressured, and needed advice from someone I respected.
Just thought I should clear that up.
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Actually, I was just waiting for CC's word because I trust him. Maybe it's his vehement defense of me, or just his logic on things in general, but I was feeling confused and pressured, and needed advice from someone I respected.
Just thought I should clear that up.
Sucking up to a respected player and basically wanting them to make your decisions for you just makes you look worse. You're so scummy that it's ridiculous.
If we command his ability either;
The mafia's RBer stops blocking to avoid confirming MD; or
MD (mafia)'s roleblock is in the hands of the town; or
The mafia's RBer strikes, helping confirm MD.
The first and third are problematic.
Both assume there is exactly one town and one scum roleblocker. You don't know either.
The third is additionally problematic in that you assume the "other" roleblock is the scum roleblock. It could just as easily be the town roleblock. If MD is scum, far better for the mafia to both defer his death until tomorrow and also use it to expose the town roleblocker.
There is no losing in the second situation.
The second is problematic for a slightly less obvious reason- who are you planning on ordering MD to roleblock, exactly? We don't have anyone to block that will do any good (the scum obviously just order a different person to do the kill if we order MD to block a scum). On the numbers, and especially given mafia influence on the discussion, we're more likely to make MD block a townie.
This is only if we take his claim to be true. Which I do, because it can be confirmed.
NO IT CAN NOT. Geez. We can confirm his ABILITY, not his ALLEGIANCE. People are getting hung up on confirming claims again, over reviewing the play. MD's play is scummiest, and leaving him alive will not help confirm him or do anything other than let him stink up the works. Lynch him and learn from the result. Yeesh.
unvote, revote Chucklez. Still hate his claim.
Eminently more confirmable due to the "Pantheon" point and the potential to prove himself through a successful protection. Yes, if he continues to have protections fail and otherwise play scummily he might be worth looking back at. However, you are being hypocritical by voting for Chucklez given your claimed justifications for letting MD live.
Welcome to my internal "people I would multivig if I could" list, it's getting quite crowded in the A section
Oh, and I missed where Treigit claimed Cthulu (!!). Despite my avowed intention not to lynch people on the flavour of their claims, I'm tempted to break it for this one given that Treigit was right up there on my scum list anyway. Could someone point me to the claim?
Oh, and if it helps, my internal "most likely townies" list is currently Puzzle, Mosschop and Jobie, although my track record for reading Puzzle is pretty bad.
I see. But I doubt you'll vote will matter. I'm pretty sure we want either Abso or Chuck today.
...
...
I don't even know what to say, except, please keep posting like this, so that some people that aren't on your wagon will realize the error of their ways and change that.
This is just funny. But it is kind of unfair how Puzzle got this ability:
"Each day, you may at any time target a player. The rest of the town will vote for that person, using awful logic to justify their votes. Your goal - purge the evil Gods!"
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Having had time to think about MD's claim, I'd like to have a voting decision and reason for that decision. But I don't. For me it's between Chucklez and MD. And it isn't a matter of whether they're scum. I'm pretty sure after MD's performance claiming that he's scum. And I've thought and concluded Chucklez is scum. I support either lynch.
EWP:@MD: That was unnecessary.:smiledown: I disaprove.
I'm sorry, but I can't vote for MD at this point. I despise his play, but I just don't honestly believe that he's scum.
Speaking of which, I think I left Xyre's vote on MD. Assuming that's the case:
Xyre Unvotes, votes !Chucklez!
I'd like to keep the bandwagons moving here. If we can decide on which one we're going after between Chucklez and Absol (or AH, come on people!), I'll move my vote accordingly.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Gah... this is rediculous. I want to believe MD is town and is a roleblocker, but with all his horrible posts, throughout this entire day, I don't think I can anymore.
I'm backing Puzzle up on this one. MD has been spewing contradictory half truths throughout this game. Although this does not automatically make him mafia it does point a big finger of suspicion at him. Add this to his general lack of anything approaching constructive contribution and lines himself up for lynching on two counts.
1. There is evidence that he may be misleading us which come perilously close to a LAL situation.
2. He isn't helping the town at all. He doesn't defend himself in anything approaching a structured manner and he he votes and wagon hops with virtually no explanation.
TBH I don't see the town suffering greatly if we do lynch him and his role claim turns out to be true. To be of use to us a townie role blocker must be able to think analytically and be prepared to act in a way that will logically help the town - MD shows no signs of this level of detailed thought so it would end up with him being told what to do by the rest of the Town which severely restricts his usefullness.
I'm having flashbacks to cp in Sin City, scum roleblocker whose ability was outed to the town from day 3 onwards (and thus had to be able to justify his targets). His choice of roleblocks had nothing to do with why he was eventually lynched. Especially with such little info out there, how do you intend to "confirm" MD or not by his ability use? In this situation, he could even justify blocking a potential doctor given all the suspicion on Chuckles.
However, if we control or at least set limits upon who he targets, we can eliminate that danger. See above, in AS' post.
Quote from Rafaelk »
Speculating that he's safe if not counterclaimed by another roleblocker is assuming the set-up and fishing for that roleblocker to come out. Speculating that he's NOT safe if counterclaimed also sucks, actually, there could potentially be two town roleblockers in a game this size. Random set-up speculation is horrible grounds to base a lynch on, let alone give a scummy player a free pass for multiple days until we find/don't find another scum roleblocker.
However, so long as his roleblock is directed by the town, and we retain the use of our vigilante(s), the town loses nothing from not lynching him today. It simply accelerates us into looking at other wagons, which isn't a poor outcome in this instance since we have plenty of information to go off of.
Quote from Rafaelk »
And you of all players know this, Az, because you know there were 2 scum roleblockers in Sin City (similar size game to this), and both of us survived to the very late game. But I forgive your poor logic- you're just protecting your scum buddy MD
And you of all players, having performed so excellently in said role, know that it was not precisely a RBing ability, and that it was an unusual deviation from the norm. I can't recall any other setup that gave the scum dual role-blockers. And even SC's version was distinguishable from CP's modus operandi.
Quote from Rafaelk »
Basically, MD has apparently been... economical with the truth... at best, lying at worst. He's tried to present the newbie card, gone off explosive-newbie style when initially pressured (which fits), but has then come over all confident and relaxed once he got that initial panic out of the way and the heat went off. He refused to claim in a manner which looked as if he was fishing for info on CC's role.
He does seem to be rather...volatile. But without a frame of reference, I'm not prepared to commit to an attack. Half of the case against him is based on genuine scum tells, the other half is based on bad logic. What I'm questioning is whether some of those genuine tells check out, and if they do, is that enough to outweigh the other cases we've seen today.
But when we have the chance to gather a great deal of additional information on him as time goes on, and a number of other wagons of similar or greater stature to pursue, then I don't think he's the play during this day. Possibly later on some night, but not today.
Quote from Rafaelk »
And he seems intent on bandwagonning anything that's not him and has momentum, without actually doing anything like reasons.
Him and half the rest of the town, unfortunately.
Quote from Rafaelk »
We had 11 votes on him, he claims roleblocker, votes have gone running over to Abso. Why the shift back to Abso? Because he's lurking again, apparently. Which is annoying, but not that high on my list of reasons to lynch people.
There's an interesting understatement. The case against Abso isn't limited to mere lurking, it's linked to his refusal to contribute or participate even when he does arrive, and to his reactions under pressure, and I suppose you could even include his vote on Treigit, if that's your thing.
Quote from Rafaelk »
This whole movement screams of a scum deadline wagon here. Pre-MD, people were on AH or else against a whole range of targets. Post-MD, there's suddenly a line zeroing in on Abso. I don't believe everyone has independently decided he's most scummy when they didn't think that before the MD wagon.
There was a huge wagon against Abso pre-wagon, which I think was merited. And there's been a good deal of analysis on him, as well.
I'm somewhat undecided between the two of them. I don't think that we should trust flavor to the point that we'd lynch Chucklez based on its absence, so that rationale strikes me as weak. So of those two, Abso might edge him out, barely.
Quote from Puzzle »
Why would gambling (I agree with the term) on possible confirmation (not as clear-cut as you and others say : cf RafK) make it less interesting to peek at his other game ?
It doesn't; did I say something that gave you that impression? It seems especially crucial right now.
*goes to read MD's other game*
Hunh. Well, there was a good tad of minor posturing, but nothing really on the scale that we had here. Kind of inconclusive.
Quote from MD »
Actually, I was just waiting for CC's word because I trust him. Maybe it's his vehement defense of me, or just his logic on things in general, but I was feeling confused and pressured, and needed advice from someone I respected.
Just thought I should clear that up.
This seems feigned. As if you're trying to link yourself to him and spread WIFOM obfuscation, like you attempted to do in your 'news game.
Quote from Cyan »
Sucking up to a respected player and basically wanting them to make your decisions for you just makes you look worse. You're so scummy that it's ridiculous.
Unvote, Vote MD
Hmm, this post verges on ad hom/survivor voting. Very negatively focused.
Quote from Rafaelk »
This is a set-up.
Don't let MD off.
confirm vote MD
So certain and decisive, and in a situation where we have a number of other good wagons. And, following that, we have an influx of new votes on MD.
Is it townies, convinced by a roleblocker claim and Puzzle's repeated barrages of analysis? Is it mafia smelling an opportunity and going in for a kill while there's fresh blood in the water? Could it be mafia convinced that MD is going down eventually, so they may as well capitalize on a comrade's death now and cast suspicion on those who defended him or advised waiting?
[The important paragraph:]
Whichever alternative it happens to be, I think the town's best play remains to give it a few days, neutralize MD's ability by dictating his target, and possibly vig him sometime down the road. Even if you believe it's almost certain that MD is scum, we have nothing to lose from following that course of action. There is no risk, no error margin from going down that road, so it's the safest way to play it. One way or another, we'll figure out what he is soon enough if we give it time. In exchange for a little patience, we gain certainty, and eliminate the chance of a misfire.
[/]
Following those last few posts, my suspicions of Raf and Cyan have been raised a good deal. Rafk is a cagey enough scum player to want to gain some easy street credit by attacking a buddy on day one, and ballsy enough to commit himself to an all-out assault on a newb, but as a townie I have a feeling he'd see the good sense of waiting for confirmation of MD's ability or turning on one of the others instead of rushing into action with an itchy trigger finger.
I've also disliked a number of his other activities since he replaced into the thread, but that would be something better discussed tomorrow.
FOS Rafaelk and Cyan for now, pseudo-vote Abso, and Vote Azrael.
I would strongly encourage the town to put a hold on voting MD for the moment, at least for the purposes of discussion. We are quickly approaching lynching threshold, but discussion is still humming.
Let me sum up one last time the most damning points once more as it seems everyone and their mother is hellbent on ignoring them :
His only point of defense so far is to send high doubts that a mod would make a complete newbie scum :
1. He later appears not to be a complete newbie : deception.
2. he later appears to have received a scum role in another game before this post : how can he honestly believe this argument is valid ? Presenting it to the town as a defense is highly deceptive and I actually consider it a lie, as he had full conscience of spewing erroneous arguments.
He says he hadn't asked before because it's Puzzle's #1156 that gave him the doubt : that is a lie. He was already unsure in #1154 : cf "I think".
He knows Puzzle is town : unaccessible knowledge (how can a role-blocker know my alignment as town ?) + totally contradicting his previous "Puzzle is obviously scum for trying to get me lynched".
There is an awful lot more, which should have been more than sufficient to finish him if it wasn't for the refocusing onto !C! by Axelrod and co. but at least, tell me how these 3.5 points about MD are not cases of LYNCH-ALL-LIARS. One by one.
Puzzle, you are simply going over the top here.
1. To say it's a "deception" for MD to call himself a newb is most likely unfair. I've been playing this stupid game for over 1 1/2 years now, and never seen MD before, either here, News, Scum, or 'Tings. Unless he's playing secretly on sites I've never heard of, he's basically a newb. A game or 2 before this one doesn't change that. Especially considering one of those games I know about he died very quickly.
2. It is entirely possible that (a) MD feels it's unfair to give scum roles to (relative) newbs, and/or (b) thought (wrongly) that saying that would help him live - which is something he would want to do as town or scum.
3. He is hardly saying he "knows" you are town. I rather think he was joking. I make that kind of argument all the time.
Look, if he is town, he's playing badly. I see this. I am actually sympathetic to the argument that we are better off with him dead simply because he'll be a distraction. But logically, his claim is good (better than Chucklez) and RB is a good role (better than pseudo Faith Healer).
I fully expect there to be a town RB in this game. If the real townie RB wanted to stand up now, I wouldn't have any problem lynching MD. But I am hesitant to do it based just on his poor play because I think it's possible he's just a bad player, if you get what I'm saying.
Is that "fishing?" Nope. I'm flat out saying it. I'd gladly trade the possibility of scum killing the town RB at night (which involves them playing guessing games with the Doc and the RB himself) to get the Mafia RB now, who can really screw us up down the road.
That said: MD you DIDN'T ANSWER my question. Did you use your ability Night 0?
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Puzzle, I just don't know what else I can say. You obviously read through the News game with slanted intentions.
MD_ did not start off this game firing votes out at each potential wagon, nor did he shoot off a No Lynch vote. His response to the attacks on him early here was quite a different reading, as I've already alluded to before, than in the other situation.
I've avoided your questions about it, Puzzle, because the other game is still in progress. I don't really want to say anything more.
This game has not been good for me at all. I really need to go back and read every game played in the past year, and hit up some Mafia Strategy sites, because my playing style of "screw it, just post whatever comes to your head" is not being well-received.
As for my poor defense throughout the game: Uh, I really don't know the proper way to defend oneself. That's why I need to hit up some websites before my next game. Then I can be all nice like Azrael and CC, or mean like RafK and Cyan...But uh, actually sound legit while doing it, lol.
I do want to live to help the town, but I really don't know what I can say anymore that will help me. Whenever I try and make a joke, it gets misconstrued as a scum-tell and I get another handful of votes.
If it helps, I was going to hit eithe RafK or A_H tonight. For a change, I actually used logic to decide something
1. I was going to hit Cyan just because he's been an a-hole, but his ability seems harmless in itself. In fact, his ability helps me know who the vanillas are so I can avoid hitting them myself.
2. I was also going to hit Chucklez just for his scumminess, but blocking a faith healer seemed inherently bad for obvious reasons. He's a no-go.
3. I was going to hit Abso for the same reasons I had for Chuck, but he was confirmed townie, so it would be a waste.
I also believe that my ability has a weird side effect, but I'm not sure. I haven't seen D_M's other games.
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I also believe that my ability has a weird side effect, but I'm not sure. I haven't seen D_M's other games.
What exactly is that supposed to mean? You had best explain, lest you lose what little support I am currently giving you.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Let me sum up one last time the most damning points once more as it seems everyone and their mother is hellbent on ignoring them :
His only point of defense so far is to send high doubts that a mod would make a complete newbie scum :
1. He later appears not to be a complete newbie : deception.
2. he later appears to have received a scum role in another game before this post : how can he honestly believe this argument is valid ? Presenting it to the town as a defense is highly deceptive and I actually consider it a lie, as he had full conscience of spewing erroneous arguments.
Tongue-in-cheek?
Well, but that's not what he said later, is it?
Quote from MD »
Because nobody is interested in your one-man war against me? *shrug*
Keep in mind I said that under extreme distress. I wasn't doubting it was possible. Rather that it was extremely unlikely, and would be a poor move on his part. For the record, I think that D_M is doing a fine job so far. Seems like he put a lot of work into the game, and is keeping up with vote counts semi-regularly.
The initial post itself didn't strike me as damning, since it seems almost humorous, in a desperate, reaching sort of way. But the second twists it all to hell, as if he's trying to come up with a serious, credible-sounding rationale after the fact.
Quote from Puzzle »
He says he hadn't asked before because it's Puzzle's #1156 that gave him the doubt : that is a lie. He was already unsure in #1154 : cf "I think".
He knows Puzzle is town : unaccessible knowledge (how can a role-blocker know my alignment as town ?) + totally contradicting his previous "Puzzle is obviously scum for trying to get me lynched".
Well, there's a bright, shiny new post of light upon the situation. A good deal of bitterness stuck in there, too.
MD, what's your rationale on that one?
Quote from Puzzle »
By directing MD's target, we lose a lot of the effect we could gain from it, as scums can organize themselves to make a townie look worse.
But if we're worried that he's scum, then it would have minimized the risk of locking him down considerably. Yes, the scum would still have influence over his target, but much less than they would if we didn't direct him at all.
Quote from Puzzle »
Az :
- I'm pretty sure you've seen something I've seen...
Wouldn't count on that too heavily: I'm not much of a micro-reader in non-mini threads. Or even in mini-threads for that matter.
Of course, now that you've mentioned something that you've seen, I have a few ideas what that might mean, so perhaps I'll go off on a hunt before too long.
Quote from Puzzle »
...and you wanting to let a likely mafia RBer live a little gives me a very bad feeling about you.
I'm flattered, as always.
Quote from Puzzle »
- your argument against RafK and Cyan is speculative.
Perhaps, but it rather appeals to me. Increasingly. Scenario number three would be something very likely for scum to do.
Quote from Puzzle »
- please answer my #1213.
Which puts me in an interesting bind, as you've now invited me to link myself even more tightly to a stalling defense of MD, who I'm quickly realizing is not someone I really want to defend all that terribly, even in a limited fashion. *sigh*
I'm still rather tempted to lock him in a cage for a few days and watch him dance for our amusement, or go ultra-aggro with the vig and take down Abso while we're at it.
These three wagons are each incredibly strong, and deciding between them is extraordinarily difficult. But although MD has been obnoxious, attention-seeking, and is quite likely the mafia role-blocker, I'm going to remain consistent with my previous stance. The likely scum who pops in and out of lurking seems more dangerous to my mind than the likely scum jumping up and down in front of our noses, screaming nonsense. With time and patience, we can eliminate any potential for error in our dealings with him, and proceed against Abso.
Can you think of any serious drawbacks to that course of action? I know it feels intuitively wrong to leave a potential scum alive any longer then necessary, but in this situation, I don't think he will pose any sort of threat to us unless the vigilante(s) is eliminated*. And on the off-chance we're wrong about him, we avoid a day one mislynch. If you can poke any holes in that reasoning, I'm all ears.
Vote Azrael.
*Well...urgh. Twenty-six players...one or two vigs...one or two kills per night...possible 8% chance of losing primary vig...*frown*.
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.
Let him hang. If I could guarantee our vigs would survive the next few days, I would still support putting him on the back burner for a short time because it would be the safer play, but without that guarantee it becomes an unnecessary gamble.
[Another important paragraph]
My question now would be: are we certain enough of Abso's guilt to roll the dice on him with a vig-kill, as well? My inclination is that we should, rather than use a lynch on him at the cost of a few townies, down the road. The risk of him turning up townie on death is considerably low in my estimation, and the chances that he will (and ought to) be a lynch target are high.
On the cons side, tomorrow might bring more information on him (this is not a call for an investigation), or on someone else, so leaving him sit for only one day doesn't give the scum much of a chance to off him, and gives us more time to analyze his play. I'm conscious of those factors. Still, I think a vigging on Abso tonight would be a saucy play for the town, and bring our lynching progress up to date with our information threshold, which is much higher than your usual day one.
I know someone here is going to bring up Random 2, much to my disgust, but I think in this situation it's a smart play. Thoughts?
Puzzle, I just don't know what else I can say. You obviously read through the News game with slanted intentions.
I do think there are flaws in Puzzle's argument, where he over-extends. That's part of why I was hesitant to vote at first. And there was that nasty little bandwagon right at the start. In my last post, MD's posts themselves, high-lighted in the analysis, brought me to a similar conclusion through a different route.
Quote from Axelrod »
Puzzle, you are simply going over the top here.
1. To say it's a "deception" for MD to call himself a newb is most likely unfair. I've been playing this stupid game for over 1 1/2 years now, and never seen MD before, either here, News, Scum, or 'Tings. Unless he's playing secretly on sites I've never heard of, he's basically a newb. A game or 2 before this one doesn't change that. Especially considering one of those games I know about he died very quickly.
Agreed here, but on to your next point.
Quote from Axelrod »
2. It is entirely possible that (a) MD feels it's unfair to give scum roles to (relative) newbs, and/or (b) thought (wrongly) that saying that would help him live - which is something he would want to do as town or scum.
This is where I was coming from before, but that doesn't seem consistent now that we know he was lynched as scum in another game.
Quote from Axelrod »
3. He is hardly saying he "knows" you are town. I rather think he was joking. I make that kind of argument all the time.
But do you see the bitterness in that post? It almost strikes me as a concession, or despairing. But if he was a townie despairing, then as Puzzle mentioned, why wouldn't he stay consistent with his previous stance and label Puzzle as insidious scum rather than a townie who his leading sheep-like townie to vote against him for poor reasons?
It's not uncommon for scum to bemoan being lynched for the "wrong" reasons.
Quote from Axelrod »
Look, if he is town, he's playing badly. I see this. I am actually sympathetic to the argument that we are better off with him dead simply because he'll be a distraction. But logically, his claim is good (better than Chucklez) and RB is a good role (better than pseudo Faith Healer).
I don't know if I'd agree with that.
Quote from Axelrod »
I fully expect there to be a town RB in this game. If the real townie RB wanted to stand up now, I wouldn't have any problem lynching MD.
I don't think anyone would. Here's the dilemma though. A townie RBer is of middling importance to the mafia, but a much greater threat to the SK. I doubt the townie RBer is going to want to claim unless pressure on MD decreases: that'd be the logical move, anyways. It leave us (me, anyways) with a little bit of a nail-biter as we wait, but I think that's what our ideal play is. I can't fault you for wanting to call him out, though, if you still don't buy the case. From that perspective, the life of a townie is a fair trade for minor role info.
Vote Azrael.
Can someone give us an updated count on the votes on MD?
I'm not saying he isn't a newbie. I'm saying :
- he isn't a complete one as he claims.
- he used the newbie defense for everything but neglected to mention his AIM experience, which is deceiving.
Reaching here. I'd probably drop that point. I've never played on AIM myself, but I imagine it's about as helpful for playing in forums as playing IRL is: not at all.
Quote from Puzzle »
Mafia attacking mafia ? Possible but in this case, shouldn't we lynch MD ?
That would be the general idea. As I said, I wouldn't even consider making a brand new case until tomorrow, not with the deadline running up fast.
Ah ha: there was a vote count at the top of the page. That makes things simple:
I find myself second-guessing myself again, based on that early wagon and his pure town-newbish reaction. Is he that good an actor?
The reasons he's being condemned are behavioral, and the reasons supporting him are as well.
This new RBing thing puts an interesting spin on things, but again, newb defense. *sigh*
I do dislike his attempted linking to CC, though, as well as his almost-concession post. And I've been getting this awful tendency to doubt myself and change my mind too much lately on this site, for a number of reasons mostly relating to self-confidence. Folks are getting more experienced and aren't as vulnerable to my old info-gathering tricks, my analyses were suffering from lack of time, and distraction with some personal matters while I was at school, leading to comments (accurates ones) that I was a little off my game. As a result I tended to rely more on the perspectives of others as crutches.
But since the start of this game, I've been putting a good deal more attention and focus here, and I don't feel nearly so much in the dark as I have at times over the past few months. I think I can trust my read here.
Okay, since Azrael has turned on me, I will admit that I roleblocked him last night. When I did it, D_M said something along the lines of my action didn't go as planned, or had another effect, or something like that (I don't have the PM anymore). That's why I think he has the restriction today. But then again, that could just be a coincidence.
How will Azrael vote for me if he has to vote for himself?
You guys are making a big mistake here by voting me. If I get lynched, my goodbye post is going to be a giant "LOL". And then night will come, and we will lsoe two townies to start the game off.
Az has betrayed me, CC did not speak out for me...my only friend is Axelrod
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So....much...information. After a few days of rather unexplected lowish accessability and a rediculous number of posts, I have finally caught up on everything and got some of my thoughts together.
On a first note (I have already alerted DM of this), I will have no internet access (I think, not 100% sure of that) starting tomorrow at midday running through Thursday afternoon (so after the deadline). I will try to contribute what I can before then, but at least some of my absence will be night.
Next up: Sooooo much information....So many scummy looking people...
I like the way the town is going overall at this point.
I don't think I can agree with an Abso lynch right now because I believe we have much better targets. His lack of contribution and terrible contributions when he does show up do not look good, but I think a lurker lynch is not the way to go right now. On that note, I can't say I'd be opposed to vigging him tonight given his scummyness, but I would prefer to see someone higher on my list vigged (obv).
AH: I still don't like him and I still think he is pretty much scum. As of rather recently (probably around 100 posts ago), I would have had no problem at all keeping my vote on him. His whole charade with Passdog (I really consider most of those responses a charade) really, really doesn't sit well with me. As a result, I would happily support an AH lynch today or vigging tonight.
Chucklez is also looking pretty bad to me right now. I'm not sure if I believe his claim, and his play since he started contributing has, IMO, pointed almost exclusively to scum. That said, I think we stand too much to lose by lynching him today if he is telling to truth. Losing a pseudo-doc doesn't seem like a good plan.
Finally, the MD wagon: MD's recent play has really pushed me heavily the wrong way. He just seems to be constantly deflecting and not really caring about anything other than his own survival. He then blames everything on poor play and newbieness without any more explanation or anything. I think Puzzle is reading too much into a couple of the points (like the line about knowing Puzzle is town), but his base argument is still a good one that I have to agree with. At this point, I have to support and MD lynch as I feel that we don't have that much to lose and a lot to gain by lynching him.
Okay, since Azrael has turned on me, I will admit that I roleblocked him last night. When I did it, D_M said something along the lines of my action didn't go as planned, or had another effect, or something like that (I don't have the PM anymore). That's why I think he has the restriction today. But then again, that could just be a coincidence.
That's probably a coincidence. I'd prefer not to comment further on that at this time.
Quote from MD »
You guys are making a big mistake here by voting me. If I get lynched, my goodbye post is going to be a giant "LOL". And then night will come, and we will lsoe two townies to start the game off.
This resembles a threat.
Quote from MD »
Az has betrayed me, CC did not speak out for me...my only friend is Axelrod
Obv, that should be "potentially confirmable." We don't know for sure that there are two RBers.
[The Family]
Unvote, Vote Chucklez
I fail to understand why that claim makes him less scummy. Anyone?
Vote stands on MD.
Anyone but you, right?
MD is going for anyone but him, people, whichever bandwagon looks most likely to succeed as long as it isn't him. For God's sake.
No, not really. Cyan's got more reason than anyone to believe Abso.
I'm half inclined to agree with you here. But on the plus side, if we get towards the latter part of the game, and there's still no dead mafia RBer, we might have a free lynch/vig target.
It's also conceivable that we can direct his RB somewhere that might confirm him: if the scum get locked in on targeting a townie night role, we can have him target someone else. So long as the mafia don't have two Rbers, we'd have confirmation that he's a townie version.
The whole "bird in hand" aspect is still tempting me to go peek at his other game and see what I can find, but it might be safe to gamble on possible confirmation, or using the vig later on to get ahead. This is a pretty target-rich environment, with a variety of people begging for lynch attention, so a slightly more aggressive strategy might not hurt.
Oh. Do we want him to claim his targets, as the game progreses? We'll be able to track whether we get any simultaneous RBs, and strike people off the SK list.
Vote Azrael.
MD and Chucklez have both been fairly scummy..on Chucklez part, this is largely due to inactivity..but MD has been fairly active and scummy, which seems alot worse to me. Plus, his role has as much chance of being on scum as on town, where as Chucklez role, if he's telling the truth about it, probably wouldn't be on a mafioso(though it's highly possible that he just altered what the ability actually is and kept the 'Pantheon Check' aspect of it). MD's role is also much more likely to be detrimental to the town if he's scum.
Question, however, did you attempt to block anyone Night 0? I don't want you to say who (yet), just if you did or not.
This is horrible reasoning, Cyan. First of all, you claim that MD is scummier than Chucklez because he has avoided a significant scum tell that Chuck is guilty of. Then you claim that a mafia Chuck claiming doc is probably telling the truth. And your last point outright assumes that Chuck is telling the truth.
Do you know something we don't? Or are you just trying to get MD lynched over Chuck for reasons of your own? The more this goes on, the more convinced I am that MD just isn't realistically scum. It just doesn't fit with the behavior of the people around him.
I'm happy with my vote on Abso, but I'd almost be willing to vote for Chuck based on your pretense of not defending him here.
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I said that, if Chucklez is telling the truth, it's pretty likely that he's town. Of course, it's very possible that he's not telling the truth, that he has some other ability that only works at a % chance, based on how many Gods from his Pantheon are alive, and he just changed it to be a Faith Healer to seem more town.
However, assuming that MD is telling the truth about his role, there is no reason to believe that it is town vs. scum, as there is an equal probability of his role being town or scum.
Also, the main cause for suspicion on Chucklez is that he lurks alot, and obviously I agree that this is more likely to occur on a scum than on a townie. However, there's still the possibility that he's a townie and just doesn't care enough to participate more(which should still get him lynched if there are no better candidates). And you're right, MD hasn't really been lurking..he's been posting, but still seems ridiculously scummy. Honestly, he would probably seem LESS scummy if he was a lurker..but his post, in general, could probably re-write the book on 'scum tells'. That's why I think he's the best candidate for a lynch today(and I think that Chucklez is the second best).
Er... have we been reading the same game? As far as I'm concerned, the main cause for suspicion on Chucklez is the ridiculously scummy things he spews out whenever he does post.
Also, if you think MD is the best candidate for a lynch, why did you switch to voting Chuck?
minor-FOS: Aurora.
Cyan, CC and MS for massive amounts of vote switching. Abso, Treigit, MD, and Krash, for making my scumdar spin around in circles. Aurora had my scumdar skip just a little bit.
@Az: Ask and you so shall recieve: Spoilered are every major bandwagon in order of who voted and unvoted. (these are unedited and straight out of my notes)
MD Wagon the First: Aurora, CP, Krash, Arimnaes, Treigit, Treigit, Puzzle, MD, MD, Treigit, Aurora, AH, CP, Bluesoul, MD Claims ISIS, Bluesoul, Krash
Chuck (the 1st): HE7, Puzzle, CC, Arim (HE7 confirms vote) x3, Aurora, CC, CC,
Treigit: Axel (vote that had been on), loran, DYH, Krash, bluesoul, Rafk, Silicon, Kenji, Axel, MS, (DYH confirms vote), Axel, DYH, Silicon, (Axel confirms vote) Krash, Rafk, MS, Axel Kenji, Axel, Cyan, Krash, MS, Abso, Axel, MS, Krash, Cyan, Chuck, Cyan, Kenji, Cyan, Rafk, Bluesoul, Jobie, Rafk
Abso: Puzzle, DYH, Silicon, CC, AH, Krash, MMOD, Aurora, CC, Passdog, MS, Cyan, DYH, Axel, Cyan, CC, Silicon, Axel, Passdog, Krash, Aurora, DYH, CC, MD, MS, CP,
AH: Passdog, Axel, Krash, Cyan, MS, Cyan, MD, CP, Mosschop, Kenji, Xyre, Chuck, Axel Passdog, MS, Bluesoul, CP, Xyre (Via CP), Bluesoul
Chuck: HE7, Tregit, Aurora, Puzzle, Cyan, Pass, CC, Arim, passdog, DYH, MS, Axel, Puzzle, AH, DYH, MS, Arim, Cyan,
MD the 3rd: Puzzle, Treigit (via Puzzle), Arim, Cyan, DYH, Aurora, MS, CP, Xyre (via CP), Rafk, Bluesoul, AH, Puzzle, DYH, MS, Arim, MS, CP ,Cyan
Look at post 915 (or so) and look at DYH's .doc's for a decent look at the votes.
Well, my strikeouts didn't carry over from Word, and that tag is a pain in the butt, so pretty much if the name comes up a second time it's an unvote. 3rd a revote, etc. (I know that looks ugly, but it's my first real substant post.
an aside, posts 699 and 1106 are the funniest posts in the thread.
Claim List:
MD: Isis- Roleblocker
Treigit: Chutulu
Abso: Fen-Vanilla
Chuck: Eirene
Aurora: Same "pantheon" as Abso.
Any missing claims can be added (I'm known to have an average of one missed claim)
Any reason we aren't continuing our look into AH? I know it got derailed by the MD fiasco, but now that we're in a Post-Claimed MD world, why are we going back to old favorites like Chuck and Abso?
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You're making the assumption that these people are telling the truth. If Chucklez is telling the truth, of course he's town; there are no mafia healers. That means nothing. We differentiate between liars and truth-tellers, not who has the more townie claim.
If we take MD's claim to be true, then there is a good chance he is mafia. But the best play wouldn't be to lynch him, it would be to suppress or command his ability (thus either confirming him or denying the mafia's roleblocks).
If we lynch him either:
The mafia loses a member and a RBer; or
The town loses a member and a RBer.
If we command his ability either;
The mafia's RBer stops blocking to avoid confirming MD; or
MD (mafia)'s roleblock is in the hands of the town; or
The mafia's RBer strikes, helping confirm MD.
There is no losing in the second situation. While the first situation offers greater rewards, I think its unnecessarily risky.
This is only if we take his claim to be true. Which I do, because it can be confirmed.
And scummy play doesn't mean best lynch target. Many times has the scummiest player had a rock-solid claim that prevented their lynching. MD's claim isn't rock-solid, but it's solid enough for me to trust for now.
unvote, revote Chucklez. Still hate his claim.
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I'm having flashbacks to cp in Sin City, scum roleblocker whose ability was outed to the town from day 3 onwards (and thus had to be able to justify his targets). His choice of roleblocks had nothing to do with why he was eventually lynched. Especially with such little info out there, how do you intend to "confirm" MD or not by his ability use? In this situation, he could even justify blocking a potential doctor given all the suspicion on Chuckles.
Speculating that he's safe if not counterclaimed by another roleblocker is assuming the set-up and fishing for that roleblocker to come out. Speculating that he's NOT safe if counterclaimed also sucks, actually, there could potentially be two town roleblockers in a game this size. Random set-up speculation is horrible grounds to base a lynch on, let alone give a scummy player a free pass for multiple days until we find/don't find another scum roleblocker.
And you of all players know this, Az, because you know there were 2 scum roleblockers in Sin City (similar size game to this), and both of us survived to the very late game. But I forgive your poor logic- you're just protecting your scum buddy MD
Basically, MD has apparently been... economical with the truth... at best, lying at worst. He's tried to present the newbie card, gone off explosive-newbie style when initially pressured (which fits), but has then come over all confident and relaxed once he got that initial panic out of the way and the heat went off. He refused to claim in a manner which looked as if he was fishing for info on CC's role.
And he seems intent on bandwagonning anything that's not him and has momentum, without actually doing anything like reasons.
We had 11 votes on him, he claims roleblocker, votes have gone running over to Abso. Why the shift back to Abso? Because he's lurking again, apparently. Which is annoying, but not that high on my list of reasons to lynch people.
This whole movement screams of a scum deadline wagon here. Pre-MD, people were on AH or else against a whole range of targets. Post-MD, there's suddenly a line zeroing in on Abso. I don't believe everyone has independently decided he's most scummy when they didn't think that before the MD wagon. This is a set-up.
Don't let MD off.
confirm vote MD
Just thought I should clear that up.
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Sucking up to a respected player and basically wanting them to make your decisions for you just makes you look worse. You're so scummy that it's ridiculous.
Unvote, Vote MD
The first and third are problematic.
Both assume there is exactly one town and one scum roleblocker. You don't know either.
The third is additionally problematic in that you assume the "other" roleblock is the scum roleblock. It could just as easily be the town roleblock. If MD is scum, far better for the mafia to both defer his death until tomorrow and also use it to expose the town roleblocker.
The second is problematic for a slightly less obvious reason- who are you planning on ordering MD to roleblock, exactly? We don't have anyone to block that will do any good (the scum obviously just order a different person to do the kill if we order MD to block a scum). On the numbers, and especially given mafia influence on the discussion, we're more likely to make MD block a townie.
NO IT CAN NOT. Geez. We can confirm his ABILITY, not his ALLEGIANCE. People are getting hung up on confirming claims again, over reviewing the play. MD's play is scummiest, and leaving him alive will not help confirm him or do anything other than let him stink up the works. Lynch him and learn from the result. Yeesh.
Eminently more confirmable due to the "Pantheon" point and the potential to prove himself through a successful protection. Yes, if he continues to have protections fail and otherwise play scummily he might be worth looking back at. However, you are being hypocritical by voting for Chucklez given your claimed justifications for letting MD live.
Welcome to my internal "people I would multivig if I could" list, it's getting quite crowded in the A section
Oh, and I missed where Treigit claimed Cthulu (!!). Despite my avowed intention not to lynch people on the flavour of their claims, I'm tempted to break it for this one given that Treigit was right up there on my scum list anyway. Could someone point me to the claim?
A quick count reveals that MD is at... Vote: MD. 9 or 10 votes as of this post.
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What was that for?
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That's not a claim.
Well damn, I don't know why I read it as one the first time through. But as I went and reread it I agree with those thoughts
@MD: A culmination of my reread and your last post really rubbing me the wrong way.
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...
...
I don't even know what to say, except, please keep posting like this, so that some people that aren't on your wagon will realize the error of their ways and change that.
I would change my vote but we're frankly better off without you. Bye.
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"Each day, you may at any time target a player. The rest of the town will vote for that person, using awful logic to justify their votes. Your goal - purge the evil Gods!"
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EWP:@MD: That was unnecessary.:smiledown: I disaprove.
Hey, if he can't take a joke, **** him.
Chuck got a lucky-dog pass today, but he's getting killed tonight. And Abso is getting strung up tomorrow. It's the truth, and I've accepted it.
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Nice avatar
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Speaking of which, I think I left Xyre's vote on MD. Assuming that's the case:
Xyre Unvotes, votes !Chucklez!
I'd like to keep the bandwagons moving here. If we can decide on which one we're going after between Chucklez and Absol (or AH, come on people!), I'll move my vote accordingly.
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Abandon Hope (4)- Krashbot, MD, Kenji, Chucklez
Absolutionis (4)- silicon, kops723, Machin Shin, carrion pigeons
Azrael (1)- Azrael
Chucklez (7)- Hawkeye, CropCircles, passdog, Axelrod, arimnaes, aurorasparrow, Xyre
MD (8)- Treigit, RafaelK, bluesoul, Abandon Hope, cyan, Jobie, Mosschop, Puzzle
Not Voting (3)- MMoD, Absolutionis, DYH
DEADLINE 89 hours, 16 mins
unvote. vote MD
QFT. There's not much more for me to say but:
Vote: MD
However, if we control or at least set limits upon who he targets, we can eliminate that danger. See above, in AS' post.
However, so long as his roleblock is directed by the town, and we retain the use of our vigilante(s), the town loses nothing from not lynching him today. It simply accelerates us into looking at other wagons, which isn't a poor outcome in this instance since we have plenty of information to go off of.
And you of all players, having performed so excellently in said role, know that it was not precisely a RBing ability, and that it was an unusual deviation from the norm. I can't recall any other setup that gave the scum dual role-blockers. And even SC's version was distinguishable from CP's modus operandi.
He does seem to be rather...volatile. But without a frame of reference, I'm not prepared to commit to an attack. Half of the case against him is based on genuine scum tells, the other half is based on bad logic. What I'm questioning is whether some of those genuine tells check out, and if they do, is that enough to outweigh the other cases we've seen today.
But when we have the chance to gather a great deal of additional information on him as time goes on, and a number of other wagons of similar or greater stature to pursue, then I don't think he's the play during this day. Possibly later on some night, but not today.
Him and half the rest of the town, unfortunately.
There's an interesting understatement. The case against Abso isn't limited to mere lurking, it's linked to his refusal to contribute or participate even when he does arrive, and to his reactions under pressure, and I suppose you could even include his vote on Treigit, if that's your thing.
There was a huge wagon against Abso pre-wagon, which I think was merited. And there's been a good deal of analysis on him, as well.
I'm somewhat undecided between the two of them. I don't think that we should trust flavor to the point that we'd lynch Chucklez based on its absence, so that rationale strikes me as weak. So of those two, Abso might edge him out, barely.
It doesn't; did I say something that gave you that impression? It seems especially crucial right now.
*goes to read MD's other game*
Hunh. Well, there was a good tad of minor posturing, but nothing really on the scale that we had here. Kind of inconclusive.
This seems feigned. As if you're trying to link yourself to him and spread WIFOM obfuscation, like you attempted to do in your 'news game.
Hmm, this post verges on ad hom/survivor voting. Very negatively focused.
So certain and decisive, and in a situation where we have a number of other good wagons. And, following that, we have an influx of new votes on MD.
Is it townies, convinced by a roleblocker claim and Puzzle's repeated barrages of analysis? Is it mafia smelling an opportunity and going in for a kill while there's fresh blood in the water? Could it be mafia convinced that MD is going down eventually, so they may as well capitalize on a comrade's death now and cast suspicion on those who defended him or advised waiting?
[The important paragraph:]
Whichever alternative it happens to be, I think the town's best play remains to give it a few days, neutralize MD's ability by dictating his target, and possibly vig him sometime down the road. Even if you believe it's almost certain that MD is scum, we have nothing to lose from following that course of action. There is no risk, no error margin from going down that road, so it's the safest way to play it. One way or another, we'll figure out what he is soon enough if we give it time. In exchange for a little patience, we gain certainty, and eliminate the chance of a misfire.
[/]
Following those last few posts, my suspicions of Raf and Cyan have been raised a good deal. Rafk is a cagey enough scum player to want to gain some easy street credit by attacking a buddy on day one, and ballsy enough to commit himself to an all-out assault on a newb, but as a townie I have a feeling he'd see the good sense of waiting for confirmation of MD's ability or turning on one of the others instead of rushing into action with an itchy trigger finger.
I've also disliked a number of his other activities since he replaced into the thread, but that would be something better discussed tomorrow.
FOS Rafaelk and Cyan for now, pseudo-vote Abso, and Vote Azrael.
I would strongly encourage the town to put a hold on voting MD for the moment, at least for the purposes of discussion. We are quickly approaching lynching threshold, but discussion is still humming.
Puzzle, you are simply going over the top here.
1. To say it's a "deception" for MD to call himself a newb is most likely unfair. I've been playing this stupid game for over 1 1/2 years now, and never seen MD before, either here, News, Scum, or 'Tings. Unless he's playing secretly on sites I've never heard of, he's basically a newb. A game or 2 before this one doesn't change that. Especially considering one of those games I know about he died very quickly.
2. It is entirely possible that (a) MD feels it's unfair to give scum roles to (relative) newbs, and/or (b) thought (wrongly) that saying that would help him live - which is something he would want to do as town or scum.
3. He is hardly saying he "knows" you are town. I rather think he was joking. I make that kind of argument all the time.
Look, if he is town, he's playing badly. I see this. I am actually sympathetic to the argument that we are better off with him dead simply because he'll be a distraction. But logically, his claim is good (better than Chucklez) and RB is a good role (better than pseudo Faith Healer).
I fully expect there to be a town RB in this game. If the real townie RB wanted to stand up now, I wouldn't have any problem lynching MD. But I am hesitant to do it based just on his poor play because I think it's possible he's just a bad player, if you get what I'm saying.
Is that "fishing?" Nope. I'm flat out saying it. I'd gladly trade the possibility of scum killing the town RB at night (which involves them playing guessing games with the Doc and the RB himself) to get the Mafia RB now, who can really screw us up down the road.
That said: MD you DIDN'T ANSWER my question. Did you use your ability Night 0?
MD_ did not start off this game firing votes out at each potential wagon, nor did he shoot off a No Lynch vote. His response to the attacks on him early here was quite a different reading, as I've already alluded to before, than in the other situation.
I've avoided your questions about it, Puzzle, because the other game is still in progress. I don't really want to say anything more.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
As for my poor defense throughout the game: Uh, I really don't know the proper way to defend oneself. That's why I need to hit up some websites before my next game. Then I can be all nice like Azrael and CC, or mean like RafK and Cyan...But uh, actually sound legit while doing it, lol.
I do want to live to help the town, but I really don't know what I can say anymore that will help me. Whenever I try and make a joke, it gets misconstrued as a scum-tell and I get another handful of votes.
If it helps, I was going to hit eithe RafK or A_H tonight. For a change, I actually used logic to decide something
1. I was going to hit Cyan just because he's been an a-hole, but his ability seems harmless in itself. In fact, his ability helps me know who the vanillas are so I can avoid hitting them myself.
2. I was also going to hit Chucklez just for his scumminess, but blocking a faith healer seemed inherently bad for obvious reasons. He's a no-go.
3. I was going to hit Abso for the same reasons I had for Chuck, but he was confirmed townie, so it would be a waste.
I also believe that my ability has a weird side effect, but I'm not sure. I haven't seen D_M's other games.
Member of Team Lucksack
Voting for Ron Paul in 2008
Learn how to get better at Magic
Also, yeah, I used my ability Night 0.
Member of Team Lucksack
Voting for Ron Paul in 2008
Learn how to get better at Magic
Also.
What exactly is that supposed to mean? You had best explain, lest you lose what little support I am currently giving you.
Why? It was No Kill Night.
Who did you use it on?
Tongue-in-cheek?
Well, but that's not what he said later, is it?
The initial post itself didn't strike me as damning, since it seems almost humorous, in a desperate, reaching sort of way. But the second twists it all to hell, as if he's trying to come up with a serious, credible-sounding rationale after the fact.
Well, there's a bright, shiny new post of light upon the situation. A good deal of bitterness stuck in there, too.
MD, what's your rationale on that one?
But if we're worried that he's scum, then it would have minimized the risk of locking him down considerably. Yes, the scum would still have influence over his target, but much less than they would if we didn't direct him at all.
Wouldn't count on that too heavily: I'm not much of a micro-reader in non-mini threads. Or even in mini-threads for that matter.
Of course, now that you've mentioned something that you've seen, I have a few ideas what that might mean, so perhaps I'll go off on a hunt before too long.
I'm flattered, as always.
Perhaps, but it rather appeals to me. Increasingly. Scenario number three would be something very likely for scum to do.
Which puts me in an interesting bind, as you've now invited me to link myself even more tightly to a stalling defense of MD, who I'm quickly realizing is not someone I really want to defend all that terribly, even in a limited fashion. *sigh*
I'm still rather tempted to lock him in a cage for a few days and watch him dance for our amusement, or go ultra-aggro with the vig and take down Abso while we're at it.
These three wagons are each incredibly strong, and deciding between them is extraordinarily difficult. But although MD has been obnoxious, attention-seeking, and is quite likely the mafia role-blocker, I'm going to remain consistent with my previous stance. The likely scum who pops in and out of lurking seems more dangerous to my mind than the likely scum jumping up and down in front of our noses, screaming nonsense. With time and patience, we can eliminate any potential for error in our dealings with him, and proceed against Abso.
Can you think of any serious drawbacks to that course of action? I know it feels intuitively wrong to leave a potential scum alive any longer then necessary, but in this situation, I don't think he will pose any sort of threat to us unless the vigilante(s) is eliminated*. And on the off-chance we're wrong about him, we avoid a day one mislynch. If you can poke any holes in that reasoning, I'm all ears.
Vote Azrael.
*Well...urgh. Twenty-six players...one or two vigs...one or two kills per night...possible 8% chance of losing primary vig...*frown*.
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.
Let him hang. If I could guarantee our vigs would survive the next few days, I would still support putting him on the back burner for a short time because it would be the safer play, but without that guarantee it becomes an unnecessary gamble.
[Another important paragraph]
My question now would be: are we certain enough of Abso's guilt to roll the dice on him with a vig-kill, as well? My inclination is that we should, rather than use a lynch on him at the cost of a few townies, down the road. The risk of him turning up townie on death is considerably low in my estimation, and the chances that he will (and ought to) be a lynch target are high.
On the cons side, tomorrow might bring more information on him (this is not a call for an investigation), or on someone else, so leaving him sit for only one day doesn't give the scum much of a chance to off him, and gives us more time to analyze his play. I'm conscious of those factors. Still, I think a vigging on Abso tonight would be a saucy play for the town, and bring our lynching progress up to date with our information threshold, which is much higher than your usual day one.
I know someone here is going to bring up Random 2, much to my disgust, but I think in this situation it's a smart play. Thoughts?
I do think there are flaws in Puzzle's argument, where he over-extends. That's part of why I was hesitant to vote at first. And there was that nasty little bandwagon right at the start. In my last post, MD's posts themselves, high-lighted in the analysis, brought me to a similar conclusion through a different route.
Agreed here, but on to your next point.
This is where I was coming from before, but that doesn't seem consistent now that we know he was lynched as scum in another game.
But do you see the bitterness in that post? It almost strikes me as a concession, or despairing. But if he was a townie despairing, then as Puzzle mentioned, why wouldn't he stay consistent with his previous stance and label Puzzle as insidious scum rather than a townie who his leading sheep-like townie to vote against him for poor reasons?
It's not uncommon for scum to bemoan being lynched for the "wrong" reasons.
I don't know if I'd agree with that.
I don't think anyone would. Here's the dilemma though. A townie RBer is of middling importance to the mafia, but a much greater threat to the SK. I doubt the townie RBer is going to want to claim unless pressure on MD decreases: that'd be the logical move, anyways. It leave us (me, anyways) with a little bit of a nail-biter as we wait, but I think that's what our ideal play is. I can't fault you for wanting to call him out, though, if you still don't buy the case. From that perspective, the life of a townie is a fair trade for minor role info.
Vote Azrael.
Can someone give us an updated count on the votes on MD?
Nvm, I'll probably do it myself.
Reaching here. I'd probably drop that point. I've never played on AIM myself, but I imagine it's about as helpful for playing in forums as playing IRL is: not at all.
That would be the general idea. As I said, I wouldn't even consider making a brand new case until tomorrow, not with the deadline running up fast.
Ah ha: there was a vote count at the top of the page. That makes things simple:
11/14 Votes on MD: Treigit, Cyan, Rafaelk, Bluesoul, Abandon Hope, Jobie, Mosschop, Puzzle, Kenji, Silicon, MMoD
*frowns again*
I find myself second-guessing myself again, based on that early wagon and his pure town-newbish reaction. Is he that good an actor?
The reasons he's being condemned are behavioral, and the reasons supporting him are as well.
This new RBing thing puts an interesting spin on things, but again, newb defense. *sigh*
I do dislike his attempted linking to CC, though, as well as his almost-concession post. And I've been getting this awful tendency to doubt myself and change my mind too much lately on this site, for a number of reasons mostly relating to self-confidence. Folks are getting more experienced and aren't as vulnerable to my old info-gathering tricks, my analyses were suffering from lack of time, and distraction with some personal matters while I was at school, leading to comments (accurates ones) that I was a little off my game. As a result I tended to rely more on the perspectives of others as crutches.
But since the start of this game, I've been putting a good deal more attention and focus here, and I don't feel nearly so much in the dark as I have at times over the past few months. I think I can trust my read here.
Vote Azrael.
I may be voting for MD, soon.
That's fine.
Vote Azrael.
How will Azrael vote for me if he has to vote for himself?
You guys are making a big mistake here by voting me. If I get lynched, my goodbye post is going to be a giant "LOL". And then night will come, and we will lsoe two townies to start the game off.
Az has betrayed me, CC did not speak out for me...my only friend is Axelrod
Member of Team Lucksack
Voting for Ron Paul in 2008
Learn how to get better at Magic
On a first note (I have already alerted DM of this), I will have no internet access (I think, not 100% sure of that) starting tomorrow at midday running through Thursday afternoon (so after the deadline). I will try to contribute what I can before then, but at least some of my absence will be night.
Next up: Sooooo much information....So many scummy looking people...
I like the way the town is going overall at this point.
I don't think I can agree with an Abso lynch right now because I believe we have much better targets. His lack of contribution and terrible contributions when he does show up do not look good, but I think a lurker lynch is not the way to go right now. On that note, I can't say I'd be opposed to vigging him tonight given his scummyness, but I would prefer to see someone higher on my list vigged (obv).
AH: I still don't like him and I still think he is pretty much scum. As of rather recently (probably around 100 posts ago), I would have had no problem at all keeping my vote on him. His whole charade with Passdog (I really consider most of those responses a charade) really, really doesn't sit well with me. As a result, I would happily support an AH lynch today or vigging tonight.
Chucklez is also looking pretty bad to me right now. I'm not sure if I believe his claim, and his play since he started contributing has, IMO, pointed almost exclusively to scum. That said, I think we stand too much to lose by lynching him today if he is telling to truth. Losing a pseudo-doc doesn't seem like a good plan.
Finally, the MD wagon: MD's recent play has really pushed me heavily the wrong way. He just seems to be constantly deflecting and not really caring about anything other than his own survival. He then blames everything on poor play and newbieness without any more explanation or anything. I think Puzzle is reading too much into a couple of the points (like the line about knowing Puzzle is town), but his base argument is still a good one that I have to agree with. At this point, I have to support and MD lynch as I feel that we don't have that much to lose and a lot to gain by lynching him.
unvote, Vote MD
I believe that puts him on 12 for those who care.
Winner of the Weekly Signature & Avatar Contest Weeks 51, 59, 78, & 118.
I don't care if I was framed for murder if I only got a warning I would let it go.
That's probably a coincidence. I'd prefer not to comment further on that at this time.
This resembles a threat.
Oh, the drama!
*drumroll*
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*more drumroll*
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*still more drumroll*
...
Vote Azrael.
aaand I still think MD is town... detrimental town maybe, but town nevertheless, thus I'm not gonna be adding my vote to this one.
Vote: Chucklez
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29