So are you saying we shouldn't lynch the CL until all the mafia are dead? By then (when and if the mafia are all dead) I'm pretty sure the cult would've out numbered the town.
I think there might come a point at which we've killed the SK and relieved some of the pressure on us, or at which crossfire and lynching will have dealt enough damage to the mafia that the cult will pose a greater threat to us.
But until the cult actually does pose a greater threat to us than the mafia, I don't think it's a good idea to do the mafia any favors by bringing them closer to winning.
No he doesn't, really; it's all baseless set-up speculation. I'm more willing to buy kops' horrid explanation that he was simply breadcrumbing back at Treigit to show he thought he knew what he was talking about than I am that he did it on this type of gambit. He was very anxious day one to leave some sort of hint behind to his role as a result of what happened to him in Sympathy for the Devil mafia. As a newer player, it's certainly feasible that he wanted to express that he'd picked up on this. You'll also remember he pointed out the ISISGODOFMAGIC crumb.
True, he may have just been trying to point out that he spotted something, but it would be a good gambit for scum had he thought of it (if I was some sort of searcher).
Furthermore, I'm more likely inclined to believe it's a cult signal than a scum signal if it's one at all, and Treigit is making up more stuff. Is there a reason you left out the fact the CL could communicate with you earlier, Treigit?He chose not to? Really?Finding that very hard to believe.
I mentioned earlier that I aksed DM if I could communicate w/ Lene, and he said any communication with Lene would be coming through DM. (Though I've since realized that in DM's last cult it took the CL's ability to recruit to communicate.)
Treigit, you lost me with the fence-sitting piece. I do so enjoy the false dilemma you set up here- "He could be CL, but non-cult scum seems more likely". Umm, what about the third option, you know, his actual doctor claim? (I've ignored the text in parentheses because that's really what you're trying to accomplish by putting said statement in parentheses.)
True, but my post was to establish that, and why I thought Kops was more likely Mafia than CL. Also, read his posts d1 that mention me. (I don't have time to look anything up now, on lunch.) They seem very much like distancing/fence sitting. Please explain how they're more likely town orginating?
It's interesting that you're trying so hard to paint him as scum and backing off the CL idea now, though. Noted.
Yes, I am.[/quote]
We've already seen multiple gods from the same Pantheon (glasswright), I'm not sure what's wrong with his D&D claim.
Yes, I already said that coincedences do happen. The point is, as I said, the wording of my recruitment PM is such that CL may have gained info about my role.
This follow-up question actually helps damn your case from the perspective if you actually think anyone would bail him out on that.
Almost as if I was trying to present a balanced case? Horrible
I'd find it very hard to believe that if kops was scum, he was using a false claim provided by DM, given the obvious flaw in it.
Who ever impled that he was using a false claim he was provided?
And I don't think you're in any position to be making demands of people, Treigit. Right now, you're only alive because we can't afford to waste a lynch on a neutral. Everyone should keep your alignment in mind, as just because you're not technically scum, doesn't mean you're thinking like a "townie". I really need to learn to become more assertive - you should've been swinging day one instead of MD_.
This is true, and I've assumed that people would remember it. However, I think I've got very little chance of winning with the cult, and I think I will revert. Thus I'm currently playing for a townie win.
True, he may have just been trying to point out that he spotted something, but it would be a good gambit for scum had he thought of it (if I was some sort of searcher).
Possible, but I'd prefer not to speculate this far when driving a case.
Quote from Treigit »
I mentioned earlier that I aksed DM if I could communicate w/ Lene, and he said any communication with Lene would be coming through DM. (Though I've since realized that in DM's last cult it took the CL's ability to recruit to communicate.)
Right, but did it clearly state the CL could communicate with you in this game?
Quote from Treigit »
True, but my post was to establish that, and why I thought Kops was more likely Mafia than CL. Also, read his posts d1 that mention me. (I don't have time to look anything up now, on lunch.) They seem very much like distancing/fence sitting. Please explain how they're more likely town orginating?
I'll go back and look for that, I was confused by what you were referencing the fence-sitting to.
Quote from Treigit »
Yes, I already said that coincedences do happen. The point is, as I said, the wording of my recruitment PM is such that CL may have gained info about my role.
So, then it would make sense that he would crumb back "Time" if he was CL since you were Labelas at one time, right?
Quote from Treigit »
Almost as if I was trying to present a balanced case? Horrible
Horrible, indeed. It's much better if you'd just shout ad homs back and forth at one another.
Quote from Treigit »
Who ever impled that he was using a false claim he was provided?
The purpose was to point out that his false claim is very bad. So bad, in fact, that I wouldn't expect it to have come from the mod. Nor, would I have expected it to come from a scum, who had plenty of time to work up their claims together. Along with X and Y, he had to make it a point to explain he was not the vig upon claiming. Surely the mod or a collective group could've done better? I deem it far more likely that the scum would have a false claim than a Cult Leader or Townie Doc would (obv).
Quote from Treigit »
This is true, and I've assumed that people would remember it. However, I think I've got very little chance of winning with the cult, and I think I will revert. Thus I'm currently playing for a townie win.
Pardon my caution, here, but I have a little trust issue with you right now.
I think there might come a point at which we've killed the SK and relieved some of the pressure on us, or at which crossfire and lynching will have dealt enough damage to the mafia that the cult will pose a greater threat to us.
If the cult is already three people, that moment will arise rather quickly, by which time we will definitely require mafia votes or mistaken cult votes to help lynch the cult leader, and by which time the cult may have absorbed a cop or vig or other strong roles.
At least at this point it's probably in the SK's interest to try and hit scum. The cult won't crossfire mafia for us, though, only hurt us.
We lost a lot of people last night. We stand to lose a few protective roles tonight. That is, the town's going to take major losses.
Lets assume 6 mafia, 1 SK, 1 CL.
At night, the mafia can kill townies (13/15 chance) or the SK/CL (2/15 chance). The mafia doesn't like pro-town roles, and later on doesn't like the SK or CL.
At night, the SK can kill townies (13/20 chance) or the mafia/CL (7/20 chance). The SK doesn't like the CL or cop.
At night, the CL can recruit townies (13/20 chance) or the SK/mafia (7/20 chance). The CL doesn't like the SK, mafia or cops.
Damage done by the mafia is irreversible. Killing the mafia is difficult with just lynches.
Damage done by the SK is irreversible. Killing the SK isn't as difficult with just lynches.
Damage done by the CL is reversible. Killing the CL isn't as difficult with just lynches.
The only thing dangerous about the CL is that his win condition comes faster than the SK's. But the fact that his recruits often die temper that; his win is accelerated by the mafia and SK, but the mafia and SK also kill off his recruits, especially if they sense he is close to winning.
The mafia is definitely the most anti-town force here, and when we lose our docs they're going to be more powerful. Removing the CL and SK help the mafia reach their win condition.
The mafia is the enemy.
Wait... weve revealed our doc AND cop? Were doomed.
Well, if you believe that kops or Chuck is our doc. We don't exactly have a ton of reason to believe either of them.
Also, if the CL survives even a few days, he becomes extremely difficult to deal with via lynches. You've gotten that part wrong in your analysis. If we lose our vig (and we won't even know if it happened, because this is a non-reveal game), the cult may well be past the town's ability to deal with it before we can "get ahead" of the mafia.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Well, if you believe that kops or Chuck is our doc. We don't exactly have a ton of reason to believe either of them.
Also, if the CL survives even a few days, he becomes extremely difficult to deal with via lynches. You've gotten that part wrong in your analysis. If we lose our vig (and we won't even know if it happened, because this is a non-reveal game), the cult may well be past the town's ability to deal with it before we can "get ahead" of the mafia.
Well, that depends on whether the cult doesn't know who the leader is, as Treigit claimed, or if they do.
For reversion purposes, it's likely that they don't, so we should be alright, there.
As for the soonest time period at which the cult could pose a threat to us, let's try some math.
We're at 22 townies, let's assume -3 for each full day/night, and 1 successful cult recruitment without crossfire or lynching, and 2 sucessful recruits as of now.
So today, cult =3, total town=22.
Tomorrow, day 3, cult 4, total town=19
Day 4, cult=5, total town =16
Day 5 cult 6 total town =13
Worst case scenario, we'll be in danger by day 5. But depending on what the SK and mafia are up to in the following nights, and whether there was a successful recruition last night, it's quite likely that the cult won't be within striking distance until day 6-7 (if it is still around at all). That's earlier than I expected, but still a good long time in the future.
Well, that depends on whether the cult doesn't know who the leader is, as Treigit claimed, or if they do.
For reversion purposes, it's likely that they don't, so we should be alright, there.
As for the soonest time period at which the cult could pose a threat to us, let's try some math.
We're at 22 townies, let's assume -3 for each full day/night, and 1 successful cult recruitment without crossfire or lynching, and 2 sucessful recruits as of now.
So today, cult =3, total town=22.
Tomorrow, day 3, cult 4, total town=19
Day 4, cult=5, total town =16
Day 5 cult 6 total town =13
Worst case scenario, we'll be in danger by day 5. But depending on what the SK and mafia are up to in the following nights, and whether there was a successful recruition last night, it's quite likely that the cult won't be within striking distance until day 6-7 (if it is still around at all). That's earlier than I expected, but still a good long time in the future.
Vote Azrael.
Are you kidding?
Seriously, I don't have a lot of time right now but this is way, way off.
First, we're not at 22 townies right now. Were at some number significantly less than that with a mafia + unknown number of other neutral roles. While you might argue that you can count the town + mafia bodies when determining at what point the hypothetical Cult takes over, if you do that, the town is screwed well before the end (or might be screwed, depending on who the hypothetical Cult can recruit, if they recruit mafia, and what happens to recruited mafia.)
Second, you have failed to subtract the possible Cult from the number of "townie" bodies remaining. With as many as three possible Cult already, you have to start your countdown with Cult = 3; town + mafia(s) + SK(s) + unknown = 19.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Seriously, I don't have a lot of time right now but this is way, way off.
First, we're not at 22 townies right now. Were at some number significantly less than that with a mafia + unknown number of other neutral roles. While you might argue that you can count the town + mafia bodies when determining at what point the hypothetical Cult takes over, if you do that, the town is screwed well before the end (or might be screwed, depending on who the hypothetical Cult can recruit, if they recruit mafia, and what happens to recruited mafia.)
Which is why I said total town, rather than total townies.
I was counting the mafia against the cult's win. If they fail to vote against the cult leader along with the rest of the town, then they're simply opening themselves up to a cult lynch/recruit (if able) + possible town/vig strategy that would take a sizeable bite out of their ranks. Some of them might make it to the end-game to win with the cult, but a good number would not. I don't think that's their ideal scenario.
And if they're not recruitable, then that's even worse for them. If they failed to vote for the cult leader, then even if they managed to nuke the CL with their NK to stave off the cult win, the reverted townsfolk would be all over them.
Quote from Axelrod »
Second, you have failed to subtract the possible Cult from the number of "townie" bodies remaining. With as many as three possible Cult already, you have to start your countdown with Cult = 3; town + mafia(s) + SK(s) + unknown = 19.
I don't think you're understanding my numbers.
(Another misunderstanding from Axel...(and another evasion to my questions, I might add) ...simply shocking ).
Day 5 would consist of 13 people in the town, 6 of them cult, in the WCS. That still leaves 7 townies.
Second, you have failed to subtract the possible Cult from the number of "townie" bodies remaining. With as many as three possible Cult already, you have to start your countdown with Cult = 3; town + mafia(s) + SK(s) + unknown = 19.
To fully clarify, we have 22 people in the town, currently. 3 of them are cult. So, the cult =3/22 of the people in the town. That is what my figures represent.
Az, just to point out, when you responded earlier to my question about the earliest day we could be at lynch or lose, you started with the assumption that we would be at 18 players tomorrow. Now you're assuming that we would be at 19 players tomorrow. Which is it? Because if it's 19, then we won't ever get to LyLo on Day 4 as you suggested, whether we lynch cult today or not. Were you being intentionally misrepresentative?
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Ah. Well, that's what I get for being hurried. Choose to believe it or not, but I didn't see what you were saying. (I missed your distinction between "town" and "townies")
It still seems wrong to count town + mafia + sk + any other neutrals together against a Cult, as if they would be working as a team. If the town gets to the point where they have to focus on Cult, and there are still mafia around, seems like the mafia win.
That said, I'll even agree that I don't consider a Cult a huge immediate threat. That doesn't change my opinion that Tregit is a good lynch. If there's a Cult, he stands a good chance of being the leader. You don't want to assume he's the leader and then get caught later if he isn't.
And I've been on this path too long, I suppose. I can't say with any degree of certainly that I'm sure someone else is Mafia.
Still waiting for Chucklez to answer my question though. And one day I might take that look at Silicon I was meaning to do. If I ever get the time....
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Az, just to point out, when you responded earlier to my question about the earliest day we could be at lynch or lose, you started with the assumption that we would be at 18 players tomorrow. Now you're assuming that we would be at 19 players tomorrow. Which is it? Because if it's 19, then we won't ever get to LyLo on Day 4 as you suggested, whether we lynch cult today or not. Were you being intentionally misrepresentative?
No, I'm simply hoping we won't go ahead with a cultist vig plan at this point.
The WCS I did earlier, as you remember, was only if we followed the vig/lynch plan on the suspected cultists.
Vote Azrael.
Quote from Axelrod »
Ah. Well, that's what I get for being hurried. Choose to believe it or not, but I didn't see what you were saying. (I missed your distinction between "town" and "townies")
That's fine. I can see that either way.
Quote from Axelrod »
It still seems wrong to count town + mafia + sk + any other neutrals together against a Cult, as if they would be working as a team. If the town gets to the point where they have to focus on Cult, and there are still mafia around, seems like the mafia win.
How so? Care to refute the scenario I mentioned earlier?
Quote from Axelrod »
That said, I'll even agree that I don't consider a Cult a huge immediate threat. That doesn't change my opinion that Tregit is a good lynch. If there's a Cult, he stands a good chance of being the leader. You don't want to assume he's the leader and then get caught later if he isn't.
And I've been on this path too long, I suppose. I can't say with any degree of certainly that I'm sure someone else is Mafia.
Still waiting for Chucklez to answer my question though. And one day I might take that look at Silicon I was meaning to do. If I ever get the time....
Speaking of waiting for people to answer questions, this is the what, 7th time you've avoided answering my single, solitary question on why you pushed for Kops to claim as likely cult without a case for being mafia? It can't be because you're too busy, you've found the time to reply to several of my posts in detail.
Actually, I already answered you, several posts ago. Sorry you seem to have missed it (it was a short point). And I wasn't pushing for him "as likely Cult" though that is certainly a possibility. His claim was relevant to whether or not I was going to believe him period. It's not like I haven't mentioned my suspicions of him from early Day 1. Despite that, at no time have I called for him to be vigged either. I wanted (still want) to evaluate his claim. There's a PBPA to be done there, but hell if I have the time.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
So, Az, you acknowledge that the only way we get to LyLo before Day 5, barring unforeseen circumstances and even if we go after the cult, is if we mislynch? Because we're actually more likely to mislynch following your plan than by lynching kops (or Treigit, possibly), and we wouldn't bother vigging under any other circumstance than missing the cult leader but getting a recruit.
I'll grant that I'm a lot less confident that kops is definitely the CL anymore, but I still don't see why you're convinced that your plan to avoid the cult until the last possible second is more benficial.
Also, just for the sake of my own sanity, could you please actually point out where Axel defended the vigging plan, because I don't specifically recall it, and Axel says he didn't do it.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
@mosschop: I know how busy things can be with a new little one around, but I also noticed you just signed up to join White Stripes mafia. Could you please insert some input into this thread since your last post was a week ago?
This thread has become rather redundant, with the same faces making the majority of the posts arguing with one another 'til they're blue in the face. I just singled out mosschop, but I'm sure there are others, Chucklez, for example, who haven't made an appearance in a while. It's time to start talking, folks. Some fresh insight would be, well, refreshing.
Actually, I already answered you, several posts ago. Sorry you seem to have missed it (it was a short point). And I wasn't pushing for him "as likely Cult" though that is certainly a possibility. His claim was relevant to whether or not I was going to believe him period. It's not like I haven't mentioned my suspicions of him from early Day 1. Despite that, at no time have I called for him to be vigged either. I wanted (still want) to evaluate his claim. There's a PBPA to be done there, but hell if I have the time.
If you're referring to this:
Quote from Axelrod »
So you then attempt to construe a request for a claim as a request for kops to be vigged. Wonderful logic. Clearly if I asked him to claim anything then I'm suspicious, and clearly if I'm suspicious then (1) I'm wrong because kops is nothing except possibly friendly Cult and (2) that means I want him to be vigged.
Why do I ever ask someone for something? To evaluate their claim, and specifically to evaluate it against the backdrop of what they have already said in the game. As a "way-point" on the path to being vigged? Yes, that makes sense.
...then you most definitely have not answered my question.
Allow me to rephrase, to adjust for your continued dance around the bushes. Why would we want to "evaluate" Kops' claim, without making a case that he was mafia? As townie, or as a cult leader false claiming, it does us no good.
So, Az, you acknowledge that the only way we get to LyLo before Day 5, barring unforeseen circumstances and even if we go after the cult, is if we mislynch? Because we're actually more likely to mislynch following your plan than by lynching kops (or Treigit, possibly), and we wouldn't bother vigging under any other circumstance than missing the cult leader but getting a recruit.
I'm interested in knowing how you define "mislynch", and if you mean "not lynch a mafia", then how exactly do you have the inside information to know our chances?
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
I'll grant that I'm a lot less confident that kops is definitely the CL anymore, but I still don't see why you're convinced that your plan to avoid the cult until the last possible second is more benficial.
Also, just for the sake of my own sanity, could you please actually point out where Axel defended the vigging plan, because I don't specifically recall it, and Axel says he didn't do it.
Axel never actually called for him to be vigged, but he was defending it as acceptable play by attacking my worst-case scenarios (which detailed the flaws in the vig plan). As for his actual stance, I believe he was trying to defend it as a viable option so he could decide what to do once Kops had been forced to claim:
Quote from Axelrod »
My plan to possibly kill kops? What plan what that? Many people have suggested vigging kops if Tregit turns up as a Cult recruit. Many people. I actually wasn't one of those people. I didn't express an opinion on that at all. What I said was that I wanted to hear what kops was going to claim. Still do. And that would make a significant difference in whether or not I think killing him is a good idea or not.
I for one think kops signal thing on day 1 as well as his name claim were suspicious enough to warrant a full claim from him. Then when he full-claimed, he comes out and admits that he lied. Perhaps this afternoon I'll PBPA him, because I still don't like that his first instinct was to lie.
Also, I agree that we need some more input from people. MMoD, Mosschop, Chucklez, and Silicon all come to mind as not having posted/contributed much of anything as of late. If nothing else, a comment on the whole Az/Axel thing could be helpful.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
I for one think kops signal thing on day 1 as well as his name claim were suspicious enough to warrant a full claim from him. Then when he full-claimed, he comes out and admits that he lied. Perhaps this afternoon I'll PBPA him, because I still don't like that his first instinct was to lie.
Suspicious of what???
Suspicions in general aren't enough. That's where the problem lies.
Vote Azrael.
EDIT POST: Specifically because his most suspicious action, as most people see it, makes a great deal more sense as cult than mafia.
Suspicions in general aren't enough. That's where the problem lies.
How then do you suppose we find the mafia you're so adamamant about lynching today, if we can't go on suspicions? Of course suspicions aren't enough, but they're the starting point. Suspcions of his actions, suspicions of his name claim led to deeper investigation by way of full claim. To some, even that seems suspicious, thus the reason he still has votes on him. Based on me being suspicious of him, I'm going to try to search for evidence in the thread. If that evidence makes me more suspicious, then I will re-vote for him and advocate that he be lynched.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
Sorry everyone. My mom didn't pay her cable bill and didn't feel the need to tell me that, so I have had no internet unexpectedly for a while now.
I move Friday so I will have a connection at the new house by Sunday.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"There is no royal road to science, and only those who do not dread the fatiguing climb
of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits"
-Karl Heinrich Marx Cube
When the cult is getting close to winning, EVERYONE turns on them. And when they're close to winning, close to half the people are cult. It's hard not to miss them.
You guys are acting like a) its harder to lynch the CL than the SK, b) cultists can't die and c) the mafia and SK don't have any interest in offing the cult. None of these are true.
Seeing as how were arguing in circles, I think we should be looking at those not bothering to participate in the discussion. I understand its boring, but if we don't talk we give the mafia carte blanche to hide and let us lynch each other.
How then do you suppose we find the mafia you're so adamamant about lynching today, if we can't go on suspicions? Of course suspicions aren't enough, but they're the starting point. Suspcions of his actions, suspicions of his name claim led to deeper investigation by way of full claim. To some, even that seems suspicious, thus the reason he still has votes on him. Based on me being suspicious of him, I'm going to try to search for evidence in the thread. If that evidence makes me more suspicious, then I will re-vote for him and advocate that he be lynched.
I'm not arguing that we don't use suspicions. What I'm saying is, you need a certain kind of suspicions (IE, suspicions of being mafia) in order to pry a legitimate claim out of someone.
I will have limited access (but still be able to post, hopefully) until Tuesday. There is no need to replace me because I will still have some form of internet access.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Mafia Stats (10-22 Overall) Random Mafia 2 Town MVP '08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
Az: I have no desire to continue arguing. Are you asking me to justify my asking kops for a claim? Is that all? Beyond my posted suspicions of him on Day 1?
Thought: Can you think why kops wouldn't come clean if he was a Cultist? If the Cult reverts upon the death of the leader, that is?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
This isn't a lynch-mafia-or-lose situation. This is DAY 2, for crying out loud, and it's not a mini either. As such, it makes sense to lynch the target with the highest probability of being scum. Non-leader cultists don't count as scum for this purpose.
Az is basing all his numbers here assuming the cultists simply revert.
A blind cult where everyone reverts is practically pointless. The cult members have no reason at all to support the cult win condition, the cult leader can't get anything out of his/her followers, etc. But Az is assuming that's what we have here.
In my experience, there's usually a sting in the tail to give some incentive to the cultists. They may retain the cult win condition (just lose the ability to recruit). They may get stripped of their abilities. We probably don't have a suicide cult, but you never know. Or the cult leader could get control of his cultists abilities (vig, inspection etc). All of these things throw the numbers off.
Make an argument that there's someone even more certain to be scum than kops, or get on kops. That numbers game was fog, and about all it actually showed was we don't want to mislynch much in the next few days- well, DUH.
Where is kops, anyway? He's gone awfully quiet, and still hasn't answered some stuff.
And Az, you thinking kops is cult leader not mafia is one thing- you may well be right- but why wouldn't we want to force a claim out of the suspected cult leader?
Also, Axel's point above is cogent and leads to the point that the absence of a second claimed cultist suggests either last night's recruitment missed or else this is not a full reversion cult (ie. the recruit has something to fear from coming out).
When the cult is getting close to winning, EVERYONE turns on them. And when they're close to winning, close to half the people are cult. It's hard not to miss them.
You guys are acting like a) its harder to lynch the CL than the SK, b) cultists can't die and c) the mafia and SK don't have any interest in offing the cult. None of these are true.
Seeing as how were arguing in circles, I think we should be looking at those not bothering to participate in the discussion. I understand its boring, but if we don't talk we give the mafia carte blanche to hide and let us lynch each other.
I do know that you aren't stupid, but this really is. Don't take this as a flame, but I really need to rip this piece of really pathetic reasoning to shreds. It isn't worthy of you.
1) Explain, please, why everyone shouldn't turn on the cult before they get close to winning. What do you define as close to winning? Why, exactly, would the mafia want to kill a threat to the town that isn't as great a threat to the mafia?
2) You assume for no reason that all the cultists would just come out and claim once they had a majority or whatever. Why? By saying "it's hard not to miss them (by which I assume you mean it's hard to miss them)," you make it seem like it will be easy to kill them once they have a large portion of the town under their control. Why?
3) It IS harder to lynch the CL than the SK. DUH. Are you insane? Did you forget somehow that people who are recruited are still alive in the game, and are able to turn attention to other players? Or even just that their existence makes it require more players to lynch the CL?
4) Planning to deal with the cult by assuming that they are going to die is dangerous at best and idiotic at worst. If they don't, what then? Did you forget that this is a no reveal game? Do you really suggest that we base our play on gambling against the odds?
5) The mafia don't have any interest in offering advantages to the town. You act as if the mafia would somehow prefer that the town won over the cult. Do you honestly have some basis for this COMPLETELY INSANE piece of garbage thinking? Could you provide me with ONE good reason to think that the cult is EVER a threat to the mafia more than the town is? Can you provide ONE good reason for the mafia to target the CL over a town player? Say, hypothetically, that the cult grows to six players. Now, unless the cult knows that they can't recruit mafia, they have exactly zero way of making better decisions than the town regarding who the mafia are. In what way will this ever be a threat to the mafia until the town is completely defeated?
Your whole post was full of assumptions that have absolutely zero basis in fact, and your three points were, each and every one, either wrong or not knowable.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
You're wrong CP. Mostly wrong. 3 seems to be the exception, but it doesn't help you. And someone will come along and explain why. It might be me, but soon I am going to sleep.
Az: I have no desire to continue arguing. Are you asking me to justify my asking kops for a claim? Is that all? Beyond my posted suspicions of him on Day 1?
Thought: Can you think why kops wouldn't come clean if he was a Cultist? If the Cult reverts upon the death of the leader, that is?
This isn't a lynch-mafia-or-lose situation. This is DAY 2, for crying out loud, and it's not a mini either. As such, it makes sense to lynch the target with the highest probability of being scum. Non-leader cultists don't count as scum for this purpose.
Az is basing all his numbers here assuming the cultists simply revert.
A blind cult where everyone reverts is practically pointless. The cult members have no reason at all to support the cult win condition, the cult leader can't get anything out of his/her followers, etc. But Az is assuming that's what we have here.
In my experience, there's usually a sting in the tail to give some incentive to the cultists. They may retain the cult win condition (just lose the ability to recruit). They may get stripped of their abilities. We probably don't have a suicide cult, but you never know. Or the cult leader could get control of his cultists abilities (vig, inspection etc). All of these things throw the numbers off.
Make an argument that there's someone even more certain to be scum than kops, or get on kops. That numbers game was fog, and about all it actually showed was we don't want to mislynch much in the next few days- well, DUH.
Where is kops, anyway? He's gone awfully quiet, and still hasn't answered some stuff.
The "numbers game" showed the dangers of not lynching mafia, not simply mislynching. If we suspect Treigit/Kops are not mafia, then we don't want to lynch them at this point. QED?
Also, did DM's last game have a "sting" in the tail?
Whether Kops is town or not, I was slightly ambivalent, leaning towards culthood. Recent developments might change that.
And Az, you thinking kops is cult leader not mafia is one thing- you may well be right- but why wouldn't we want to force a claim out of the suspected cult leader?
There wouldn't be any danger, supposing he's actually the cult leader. BUT, if our assumption is that he's the cult leader, then forcing him to false claim does us very little good. And, if we're wrong, then it exposes a town role.
3) It IS harder to lynch the CL than the SK. DUH. Are you insane? Did you forget somehow that people who are recruited are still alive in the game, and are able to turn attention to other players? Or even just that their existence makes it require more players to lynch the CL?
I'll allow AS to do the rest of his defending himself, but since it's already been alluded to, the surfacing of new cult members typically makes it easier to find the cult leader via process of elimination.
===========
Other Stuff
===========
Time to throw my hat into the ring ... My name is Mosschop and I have been a cultist since Night 1. I'm coming out because:
a) I think there is a high probability that I will revert to townie on the death of the cult leader as explained above.
b) Tregit coming out today pretty much scuppers the cults chances - without cooperative followers the CL is dead in the water
and c) dammit, I don't want to be on the losing team!
The info that I can give you is pretty much the same as that which Treigit eventually gave you. During the night I had my immortality stripped away and my powers revoked and I became a worshipper of Lene, the God of Humility. Goal .. get rid of everyone else.
Ah hah...
Since night 1, you say? By which you mean last night?
And you're confirming all the details of Treigit's cult claim, so far as you're aware of them?
Vote Azrael.
Quote from Axelrod »
Are you asking me to justify my asking kops for a claim? Is that all? Beyond my posted suspicions of him on Day 1?
Basically, yes.
If your primary suspicions of him were as cult leader, then some explanation on how forcing the cult leader to false claim would help us might be in order. And/or, if you had a good deal of suspicions on him as possible mafia, then I'd like to see your rationale, and a brief comparison of the evidence against Kops in relation to the other wagons we've seen throughout the game.
Is there anyone you think is scum? There seemed to be an awful lot of "Probably town, possibly scum" in there, which is true for all of us. Also, you seem to have forgotten that Puzzle was confirmed by bluesoul.
Quote from Mosschop »
Chucklez - Still don't see where the beef is with chucklez - a number of people high on my scum list are after his head which makes me think that he is town.
Who exactly are these people? You don't seem to have mentioned any of them on your list. And how much more beef do you need? Did you read my PBPA at the start of the day?
Well, that lends some validity to Treigit's finally-got-around-to-the-truth-claim.
One other thing:
Quote from Abandon Hope »
You're wrong CP. Mostly wrong. 3 seems to be the exception, but it doesn't help you. And someone will come along and explain why. It might be me, but soon I am going to sleep.
I'd actually like it to be you, if you don't mind.
@Rafk: what do you want me to answer other than the counter-breadcrumb issue which I have said many times I don't have a better answer to. You're just gonna have to accept that or risk losing a power role.
A possibility that I would like to bring up, but I hardly think is likely at all, is the chance that mosschop is the CL whose recruit failed last night (target died, unrecruitable role, rb (rb being the least likely), etc) (also I don't think it's likely that he simply refrained from recruiting b/c then he would have come out sooner)? Similar tactic to the SK in dollar mafia, though I honestly can't remember what his sn was. I just remember that he claimed to be his own target (because of the way he killed, this was possible) in an attempt to clear himself, but happened to get caught by a watcher. Again, this isn't exactly the most likely scenario, but I think it should at least be considered (along with my being the CL if you must).
1) Explain, please, why everyone shouldn't turn on the cult before they get close to winning. What do you define as close to winning? Why, exactly, would the mafia want to kill a threat to the town that isn't as great a threat to the mafia?
The reason people won't turn on the cult early is because everyone needs to. Attrition by forcing other to use their resourses in a certain way. The mafia want to kill a threat to them. It happens to be a threat to the town as well. But they're gonna lose if they don't, and they're alot more able.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
2) You assume for no reason that all the cultists would just come out and claim once they had a majority or whatever. Why? By saying "it's hard not to miss them (by which I assume you mean it's hard to miss them)," you make it seem like it will be easy to kill them once they have a large portion of the town under their control. Why?
Obviously they won't all just claim. But some have. Furthermore, the cult grows. Any action will continually have a higher chance of finding cult, especially mafia kills. Cultists will die. It'll be hard to miss them.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
3) It IS harder to lynch the CL than the SK. DUH. Are you insane? Did you forget somehow that people who are recruited are still alive in the game, and are able to turn attention to other players? Or even just that their existence makes it require more players to lynch the CL?
Here's where you're partially right. But you didn't go far enough. Clan members refusing to vote the clan leader are what stalls his lynch. But they have to know who the leader is. If that comes in a PM to the clanmembers, one of the turncoats will probably let us know. So the leader most likely won't do that. If the leader says in thread, it's common knowledge again. As soon as it's common knowledge, we can lynch. Not even clan members will be able to stop it. So the best plan for the leader is to not make it common knowledge who he is. In this case, it's just as easy to lynch him as the SK.
That was long and convoluted. Heres the short: Loyal clan members with inside knowledge could make it hard to lynch the leader. But because of our turncoats, that situation won't happen.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
4) Planning to deal with the cult by assuming that they are going to die is dangerous at best and idiotic at worst. If they don't, what then? Did you forget that this is a no reveal game? Do you really suggest that we base our play on gambling against the odds?
See number two. Statistically, cultists will die. It's likely enough we can depend on it. Nothing's for sure, and this is close enough to assurance.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
5) The mafia don't have any interest in offering advantages to the town. You act as if the mafia would somehow prefer that the town won over the cult. Do you honestly have some basis for this COMPLETELY INSANE piece of garbage thinking? Could you provide me with ONE good reason to think that the cult is EVER a threat to the mafia more than the town is? Can you provide ONE good reason for the mafia to target the CL over a town player? Say, hypothetically, that the cult grows to six players. Now, unless the cult knows that they can't recruit mafia, they have exactly zero way of making better decisions than the town regarding who the mafia are. In what way will this ever be a threat to the mafia until the town is completely defeated?
The mafia don't know what kind of advantages the cult will gain as it grows. They don't know what will happen to their members. Most importantly they don't know who the cult is. They need to protect themselves from the unknown. And they're going to by killing people. And as we already know, some of those people will be cult. They don't have to offer advantages to the town. They're going to whether they like it or not. But they won't kill claimed cultists you say. It just makes them more likely to hit SK CL. When cult reverts they'll have done us a favor.
I do know that you aren't stupid, but this really is. Don't take this as a flame, but I really need to rip this piece of really pathetic reasoning to shreds. It isn't worthy of you.
1) Explain, please, why everyone shouldn't turn on the cult before they get close to winning. What do you define as close to winning? Why, exactly, would the mafia want to kill a threat to the town that isn't as great a threat to the mafia?
Because right now, the cult isn't big enough to seek out and destroy. And the mafia doesn't see the cult as a threat yet.
I would define "close" as haing the potential to win in a day or two.
When the cult wins, everyone else loses.
2) You assume for no reason that all the cultists would just come out and claim once they had a majority or whatever. Why? By saying "it's hard not to miss them (by which I assume you mean it's hard to miss them)," you make it seem like it will be easy to kill them once they have a large portion of the town under their control. Why?
Because there's a lot of them. If the SK and mafia both make a kill, one of them’s very likely to be a cultist. The town can also make a lynch. And if any of these kills is the CL himself, the problem is completely solved.
3) It IS harder to lynch the CL than the SK. DUH. Are you insane? Did you forget somehow that people who are recruited are still alive in the game, and are able to turn attention to other players? Or even just that their existence makes it require more players to lynch the CL?
Why? They don’t know who the CL is, and even if they did they aren’t necessarily loyal. And if the identity of the CL becomes public knowledge, he will die.
4) Planning to deal with the cult by assuming that they are going to die is dangerous at best and idiotic at worst. If they don't, what then? Did you forget that this is a no reveal game? Do you really suggest that we base our play on gambling against the odds?
There is no guaranteed win for the town in this game. Of the hazards that face us now, the cult is probably the least. The mafia is the most. We need to play the anti-town roles against each other to weaken them enough for a town win.
5) The mafia don't have any interest in offering advantages to the town. You act as if the mafia would somehow prefer that the town won over the cult. Do you honestly have some basis for this COMPLETELY INSANE piece of garbage thinking? Could you provide me with ONE good reason to think that the cult is EVER a threat to the mafia more than the town is? Can you provide ONE good reason for the mafia to target the CL over a town player? Say, hypothetically, that the cult grows to six players. Now, unless the cult knows that they can't recruit mafia, they have exactly zero way of making better decisions than the town regarding who the mafia are. In what way will this ever be a threat to the mafia until the town is completely defeated?
If the cult is 6 players, and there are 13 players alive, I believe you can understand the threat to the mafia and SK.
My points are not unreasonable or even that hard to think of. I don't know why you suddenly consider me insane.
Even when the cult has just cleared majority, it's still not off scot-free. I remember treigit said that they had to kill everyone else. If they use their majority to kill someone, the mafia, sk, AND vig know who each member now, and the cult becomes short-lived.
Because right now, the cult isn't big enough to seek out and destroy. And the mafia doesn't see the cult as a threat yet.
I would define "close" as haing the potential to win in a day or two.
When the cult wins, everyone else loses.
Okay, so the town shouldn't target the cult because the mafia will deal with it, and the mafia shouldn't deal with the cult because the town should deal with it. Fine. My point is that the second point here will remain true even after the first becomes false.
Your answer to the second question makes it seem that you understand this, but you're coming to the wrong conclusion. From the mafia perspective, the town is a threat and the cult is a way to kill that threat. The town would have to be completely neutralized before the cult starts to become a problem for the mafia. (See your 6 cultists out of 13 players example below.)
Because there's a lot of them. If the SK and mafia both make a kill, one of them’s very likely to be a cultist. The town can also make a lynch. And if any of these kills is the CL himself, the problem is completely solved.
Until the cult is actually a majority of the players, it is more likely for people to get non-cultists than cultists. Once the cult is a majority, then (assuming that they don't all claim) they have a massive amount of control over what happens, just by persuasion and the power of their votes, if nothing else.
Why? They don’t know who the CL is, and even if they did they aren’t necessarily loyal. And if the identity of the CL becomes public knowledge, he will die.
Pardon me, but the identity of the CL is pretty evident as either Treigit or kops. Considering that you are arguing that we should let the CL live, you're kind of undermining your own argument here.
There is no guaranteed win for the town in this game. Of the hazards that face us now, the cult is probably the least. The mafia is the most. We need to play the anti-town roles against each other to weaken them enough for a town win.
How do you propose that the cult play against the mafia? The cult leader has to choose players he think are town if he wants his cult to grow. What other weapon does he have? Sure, the mafia could eliminate the cult for us, but this isn't a matter of having two anti-town forces collide to the benefit of the town, because the mafia doesn't care about the cult except as a means to play mind games with the town, or until after the town is completely wasted. The cult is a threat to the town, though, and unless we kill them, the mafia get to watch as the cult and the town wrest influence over the lynch from each other and laugh.
If the cult is 6 players, and there are 13 players alive, I believe you can understand the threat to the mafia and SK.
I reference this above. If the cult is 6 players out of 13, then the town is well-done. There's no point in the town allowing it to go this far. If they did, though, you'd be right, and the mafia might want to do something about it, secure in the knowledge that there's no way for the town to win.
My points are not unreasonable or even that hard to think of. I don't know why you suddenly consider me insane.
Your points are not well thought-out, and they lead to self-destructive behavior that is nonsensical in the extreme. Sounds like insanity to me.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Even when the cult has just cleared majority, it's still not off scot-free. I remember treigit said that they had to kill everyone else. If they use their majority to kill someone, the mafia, sk, AND vig know who each member now, and the cult becomes short-lived.
Has it been proven yet that the cult members know who each other are? (besides the leader, of course)
Right answer, or close enough. My point was that kops didn't make sense as non-leader cultist, which had been mooted as a reason to not lynch kops.
Mosschop has eliminated that theory, anyway, glad to know I'm right at least that far.
The "numbers game" showed the dangers of not lynching mafia, not simply mislynching.
No, because it contains too many assumptions.
If the cult is anything but straight reversion (which would be an incredibly weak cult... get down to 10 cultists and one mafia, the one mafia kills the leader and suddenly everyone's town again? Come on), then the danger is not just not lynching mafia, the danger is not lynching all the scum.
If we suspect Treigit/Kops are not mafia, then we don't want to lynch them at this point. QED?
We don't want to lynch ordinary cultists, but your logic falls down as to not lynching the cult leader. I'm fully open to kops being mafia anyway. Recent developments have even tilted me in that direction further:
1) the cult leader may have very good reason not to expose his/her identity to the cultists, but a mafia wouldn't know that
2) kops signal back to Treigit ("Time") had nothing to do with the god now claimed as cult leader, Lene God of Humility, suggesting he didn't actually know wtf he was talking about with that signal
Also, did DM's last game have a "sting" in the tail?
You? Playing "second-guess the mod"? Come on. I'm really starting to feel that we've got a 1-2 punch coming up here on kops then you showing up mafia, because as town you call people out for exactly this kind of thing.
For the record, the last few cults on this site have all had problems. The only second guessing I'm prepared to do is that dm won't have directly copied the way any of them work.
There wouldn't be any danger, supposing he's actually the cult leader. BUT, if our assumption is that he's the cult leader, then forcing him to false claim does us very little good.
Right, so we just don't ask suspected scum to claim?
And, if we're wrong, then it exposes a town role.
That's also a risk with asking a suspected mafia to claim. We can always be wrong. That's not a reason to not ask.
This stuff sounds good, superficially, but it's blatantly illogical Az.
Ah hah...
Since night 1, you say? By which you mean last night?
And you're confirming all the details of Treigit's cult claim, so far as you're aware of them?
Vote Azrael.
If your primary suspicions of him were as cult leader, then some explanation on how forcing the cult leader to false claim would help us might be in order.
I'll even break my own rules and take this part of your questions for Axelrod, seeing as it is so dumb.
The whole point of extracting claims from suspicious people is that false-claims are difficult and may give people away if they muck up. Do you think there's no worth in identifying kops as cult leader (if that's what he is)?
Amazingly enough, kops DID muck up his false claim with the God of X and Y thing he had to backpedal on. Funny how these things turn out.
kops: Telling me the equivalent of "suck it up, princess" at risk of losing your "power role" doesn't inspire me with confidence. No, that's not true. It inspires me with confidence that you made up the power role to give you a stick to shake.
Also, I liked mosschop on day 1 (said so, too) and committing to having no powers and being cult etc this early (it is only day 2, in spite of Az' panic merchanting) is a long way out for a cult leader to be running that sort of gambit.
Oh, and you forgot you were going after Jobie, but that's OK, I didn't think you were sincere about that anyway.
vote kops
AH and AS: You're all assuming that our turncoats are 100% honest and would turn their leader in if they knew who it was and would revert afterwards. I have a bridge to sell you.
If I was a non-revert cultist, I would be doing exactly this, hoping that me and my mates would be seen as confirmed townies once the leader died and that one or more of us would make it to the end.
EBWDP: Some of the above (including one of Azrael's self votes) inadvertently fell out of quote tags. For the sake of clarity, unvote, vote kops
Has it been proven yet that the cult members know who each other are? (besides the leader, of course)
Well, yeah, mosschop knows that treigit is the other cultist and vice versa
Seriously though, the only thing Rafk gave me to actually address in the above post is this:
Oh, and you forgot you were going after Jobie, but that's OK, I didn't think you were sincere about that anyway.
Umm... where the hell did you get the idea that I've forgotten? Did I ever say something about not voting right now, or anything of the sort? I don't believe I did, it just wasn't the current issue. I am still quite sincere about it as I don't think anybody else has anywhere near as much chance of being scum (except maybe you, but I would need to make a reread to determine that, so I'm not going to take that suspicion anywhere until I have time to do that, which may not be for a while what with school just starting)
Wow, Mosschop's claim of being cultist seems to confirm that there really is a cult, and it's not just Treigit making things up to save his butt. I like RafK's points about kops still having potential to be CL/mafia, and I too don't like his use of "Lynch me if you want to lose a power role."
Vote kops723
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
Yay, I just realized what Mosschop's post means for me. (If you believe him.) Since we now have confirmation that CL is Lene, and not a time god, that makes my breadcrumbing irrelevant, and I think that was the only outstanding arguement for me as CL.
Your turn to misread my post. That question was assuming he wasn't Cult Leader (I thought it was obvious, but I could have said "mere" Cultist or "simple" Cultist to clarify.) The ultimate point being that if he's not a recruit, but is actually the leader, then pushing for the claim would be a good thing. As would it if he's mafia instead.
I was speculating that Kops didn't make much sense as a recruit in the Cult that has been described, because he should have outed himself (as MossChop amazingly just did) There would seem to be no reason for a mere recruit not to do so.
Quote from Azrael »
Basically, yes.
If your primary suspicions of him were as cult leader, then some explanation on how forcing the cult leader to false claim would help us might be in order. And/or, if you had a good deal of suspicions on him as possible mafia, then I'd like to see your rationale, and a brief comparison of the evidence against Kops in relation to the other wagons we've seen throughout the game.
If he were Cult Leader, forcing him to claim helps us the same way forcing a mafia to claim helps us. He would be a force that needs to be eliminated before the end. I thought you agreed with that, and your argument was that it didn't make sense to go after "mere" Cultists.
As for Mafia possibilities, I don't know where you had kops after Day one, but he was top 5 in my possible mafia list. I expressed my suspicions as early as post #310, and didn't really change them. I think he might have been the one I was voting before I switched over to MD right at the end. So question "my rationale" if you want. But don't try to say that I wasn't suspicious of him - and suspicious of him as mafia. I didn't know squat about the Cult at that point.
There is absolutely no way I'm "comparing" the evidence against kops in this game to the evidence against all the other players who have had suspicion cast on them this game. That would take days at my current pace.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Right answer, or close enough. My point was that kops didn't make sense as non-leader cultist, which had been mooted as a reason to not lynch kops.
Mosschop has eliminated that theory, anyway, glad to know I'm right at least that far.
Yep.
Quote from Rafaelk »
No, because it contains too many assumptions.
If the cult is anything but straight reversion (which would be an incredibly weak cult... get down to 10 cultists and one mafia, the one mafia kills the leader and suddenly everyone's town again? Come on), then the danger is not just not lynching mafia, the danger is not lynching all the scum.
And yet, straight reversion cults are as common as any other, often more common. Otherwise, you could have the disastrously hilarious scenario of 10 cultists and 1 mafia, mafia kills the cult leader, mafia wins instantly.
Whee, I can do this too.
But yeah, if it's not a straight reversion cult, we're facing three NKs a night, and the game was completely unbalanced from the start. There very well might be a twist we don't know about it (protective role for the CL, for instance), but if it's the recruits guzzling poisoned kool-aid, then DM was completely off his rockers.
Quote from Rafaelk »
We don't want to lynch ordinary cultists, but your logic falls down as to not lynching the cult leader. I'm fully open to kops being mafia anyway. Recent developments have even tilted me in that direction further:
1) the cult leader may have very good reason not to expose his/her identity to the cultists, but a mafia wouldn't know that
2) kops signal back to Treigit ("Time") had nothing to do with the god now claimed as cult leader, Lene God of Humility, suggesting he didn't actually know wtf he was talking about with that signal
Mm hmm. So unless Mosschop and treigit are both lying, that would seem to clear him of the cult breadcrumb charge.
I'm looking forward to hearing this phantom case for Kops as mafia, however. It's been referred to time and again, but has never materialized.
Quote from Rafaelk »
You? Playing "second-guess the mod"? Come on. I'm really starting to feel that we've got a 1-2 punch coming up here on kops then you showing up mafia, because as town you call people out for exactly this kind of thing.
I do???
In this very post, I was "second-guessing" the mod on the likelihood of a death cult, and you were second-guessing me right back.
Quote from Rafaelk »
For the record, the last few cults on this site have all had problems. The only second guessing I'm prepared to do is that dm won't have directly copied the way any of them work.
That wouldn't surprise me much, but again, I don't think the death cult twist is all that likely.
Quote from Rafaelk »
Right, so we just don't ask suspected scum to claim?
Heh. Nah, but if we're very sure of what they are, and there's no need to deal with them immediately, it's safe to let them sit till you're ready to nail them.
But that, of course, just leads us back round the circle.
How do you propose that the cult play against the mafia? The cult leader has to choose players he think are town if he wants his cult to grow. What other weapon does he have? Sure, the mafia could eliminate the cult for us, but this isn't a matter of having two anti-town forces collide to the benefit of the town, because the mafia doesn't care about the cult except as a means to play mind games with the town, or until after the town is completely wasted. The cult is a threat to the town, though, and unless we kill them, the mafia get to watch as the cult and the town wrest influence over the lynch from each other and laugh.
Well, it depends on whether mafia are recruitable or not, and whether they keep their status. If the townies had their wins and status overwritten, the mafia may as well.
Unfortunately, there's no way of knowing that, but there is at least a possibility that the cult could pose a danger to the mafia by cutting back their victory threshold.
Quote from Carrion Pigeons »
I reference this above. If the cult is 6 players out of 13, then the town is well-done. There's no point in the town allowing it to go this far. If they did, though, you'd be right, and the mafia might want to do something about it, secure in the knowledge that there's no way for the town to win.
Your points are not well thought-out, and they lead to self-destructive behavior that is nonsensical in the extreme. Sounds like insanity to me.
If the mafia eventually decides to do something about it, (IE, kill the cult leader) then the town would certainly have a chance again, afterwards. It's just a matter of the mafia not misplaying with their kill target.
Wow, Mosschop's claim of being cultist seems to confirm that there really is a cult, and it's not just Treigit making things up to save his butt. I like RafK's points about kops still having potential to be CL/mafia, and I too don't like his use of "Lynch me if you want to lose a power role."
Your turn to misread my post. That question was assuming he wasn't Cult Leader (I thought it was obvious, but I could have said "mere" Cultist or "simple" Cultist to clarify.) The ultimate point being that if he's not a recruit, but is actually the leader, then pushing for the claim would be a good thing. As would it if he's mafia instead.
I was speculating that Kops didn't make much sense as a recruit in the Cult that has been described, because he should have outed himself (as MossChop amazingly just did) There would seem to be no reason for a mere recruit not to do so.
Mm hmm. And I agree with that.
Quote from Axelrod »
If he were Cult Leader, forcing him to claim helps us the same way forcing a mafia to claim helps us. He would be a force that needs to be eliminated before the end. I thought you agreed with that, and your argument was that it didn't make sense to go after "mere" Cultists.
Eh, round and round in circles we go, see quote with Raf above.
Quote from Axelrod »
As for Mafia possibilities, I don't know where you had kops after Day one, but he was top 5 in my possible mafia list. I expressed my suspicions as early as post #310, and didn't really change them. I think he might have been the one I was voting before I switched over to MD right at the end. So question "my rationale" if you want. But don't try to say that I wasn't suspicious of him - and suspicious of him as mafia. I didn't know squat about the Cult at that point.
There is absolutely no way I'm "comparing" the evidence against kops in this game to the evidence against all the other players who have had suspicion cast on them this game. That would take days at my current pace.
Oh, I'm not saying that you weren't suspicious of him earlier.
What I'm looking for is justification that he's not small-fry compared to folks like say...Tregit in your mind, and you in mine.
I don't need anything too detailed, or any quotations, just whatever thoughts that come to mind.
Actually it doesn't, as there is still the possibility that you as CL knew that you had stripped the powers of the God of Time and were signalling to him who you were. Not that that is what I think though.
Hmm.
*takes a note*
Vote Azrael.
Quote from Rafaelk »
I'm really starting to feel that we've got a 1-2 punch coming up here on kops then you showing up mafia, because as town you call people out for exactly this kind of thing.
Besides the faulty rationale, I also enjoy the attempted linking there.
I'm sure you remember from Romance mafia that I'm typically very cautious about defending mafia (who I actually know about). So that's an interesting shot, coming from you.
You missed Azrael and Axelrod off in their own little world arguing about the dangers of lynching suspected cultists and/or mafia for about 10 pages, kops false claiming, being caught in his false claim, and finally claiming doc, and Mosschop has stepped forward as the second cult recruit, somewhat confirming Treigit's story.
Az:
Could you tell me how I misinterpreted this?
Quote from RafaelK »
kops: Telling me the equivalent of "suck it up, princess" at risk of losing your "power role" doesn't inspire me with confidence. No, that's not true. It inspires me with confidence that you made up the power role to give you a stick to shake.
Seems to me like RafK is saying he doesn't like that kops said, "I'm a power role, and you guys can lynch me if you want to lose my role." It also seems like RafK is saying that with that, coupled with a possible explanation for the weird breadcrumbing, kops could be mafia. Obviously, if I'm wrong, then RafK can feel free to object or set me straight or whatever, but I'm not sure you should be telling me what somebody else meant to say.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
Seems to me like RafK is saying he doesn't like that kops said, "I'm a power role, and you guys can lynch me if you want to lose my role." It also seems like RafK is saying that with that, coupled with a possible explanation for the weird breadcrumbing, kops could be mafia. Obviously, if I'm wrong, then RafK can feel free to object or set me straight or whatever, but I'm not sure you should be telling me what somebody else meant to say.
I was referring to this part, actually:
Quote from Azrael »
Quote from Rafaelk »
We don't want to lynch ordinary cultists, but your logic falls down as to not lynching the cult leader. I'm fully open to kops being mafia anyway. Recent developments have even tilted me in that direction further:
1) the cult leader may have very good reason not to expose his/her identity to the cultists, but a mafia wouldn't know that
2) kops signal back to Treigit ("Time") had nothing to do with the god now claimed as cult leader, Lene God of Humility, suggesting he didn't actually know wtf he was talking about with that signal
Mm hmm. So unless Mosschop and treigit are both lying, that would seem to clear him of the cult breadcrumb charge.
Which might end up clearing, not confirming, the charge of Kops being cult.
I think there might come a point at which we've killed the SK and relieved some of the pressure on us, or at which crossfire and lynching will have dealt enough damage to the mafia that the cult will pose a greater threat to us.
But until the cult actually does pose a greater threat to us than the mafia, I don't think it's a good idea to do the mafia any favors by bringing them closer to winning.
Vote Azrael.
I mentioned earlier that I aksed DM if I could communicate w/ Lene, and he said any communication with Lene would be coming through DM. (Though I've since realized that in DM's last cult it took the CL's ability to recruit to communicate.)
True, but my post was to establish that, and why I thought Kops was more likely Mafia than CL. Also, read his posts d1 that mention me. (I don't have time to look anything up now, on lunch.) They seem very much like distancing/fence sitting. Please explain how they're more likely town orginating?
Yes, I am.[/quote]
Yes, I already said that coincedences do happen. The point is, as I said, the wording of my recruitment PM is such that CL may have gained info about my role. Almost as if I was trying to present a balanced case? Horrible
Who ever impled that he was using a false claim he was provided?
This is true, and I've assumed that people would remember it. However, I think I've got very little chance of winning with the cult, and I think I will revert. Thus I'm currently playing for a townie win.
Possible, but I'd prefer not to speculate this far when driving a case.
Right, but did it clearly state the CL could communicate with you in this game?
I'll go back and look for that, I was confused by what you were referencing the fence-sitting to.
So, then it would make sense that he would crumb back "Time" if he was CL since you were Labelas at one time, right?
Horrible, indeed. It's much better if you'd just shout ad homs back and forth at one another.
The purpose was to point out that his false claim is very bad. So bad, in fact, that I wouldn't expect it to have come from the mod. Nor, would I have expected it to come from a scum, who had plenty of time to work up their claims together. Along with X and Y, he had to make it a point to explain he was not the vig upon claiming. Surely the mod or a collective group could've done better? I deem it far more likely that the scum would have a false claim than a Cult Leader or Townie Doc would (obv).
Pardon my caution, here, but I have a little trust issue with you right now.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
If the cult is already three people, that moment will arise rather quickly, by which time we will definitely require mafia votes or mistaken cult votes to help lynch the cult leader, and by which time the cult may have absorbed a cop or vig or other strong roles.
At least at this point it's probably in the SK's interest to try and hit scum. The cult won't crossfire mafia for us, though, only hurt us.
We lost a lot of people last night. We stand to lose a few protective roles tonight. That is, the town's going to take major losses.
Lets assume 6 mafia, 1 SK, 1 CL.
At night, the mafia can kill townies (13/15 chance) or the SK/CL (2/15 chance). The mafia doesn't like pro-town roles, and later on doesn't like the SK or CL.
At night, the SK can kill townies (13/20 chance) or the mafia/CL (7/20 chance). The SK doesn't like the CL or cop.
At night, the CL can recruit townies (13/20 chance) or the SK/mafia (7/20 chance). The CL doesn't like the SK, mafia or cops.
Damage done by the mafia is irreversible. Killing the mafia is difficult with just lynches.
Damage done by the SK is irreversible. Killing the SK isn't as difficult with just lynches.
Damage done by the CL is reversible. Killing the CL isn't as difficult with just lynches.
The only thing dangerous about the CL is that his win condition comes faster than the SK's. But the fact that his recruits often die temper that; his win is accelerated by the mafia and SK, but the mafia and SK also kill off his recruits, especially if they sense he is close to winning.
The mafia is definitely the most anti-town force here, and when we lose our docs they're going to be more powerful. Removing the CL and SK help the mafia reach their win condition.
The mafia is the enemy.
Wait... weve revealed our doc AND cop? Were doomed.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Also, if the CL survives even a few days, he becomes extremely difficult to deal with via lynches. You've gotten that part wrong in your analysis. If we lose our vig (and we won't even know if it happened, because this is a non-reveal game), the cult may well be past the town's ability to deal with it before we can "get ahead" of the mafia.
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
Well, that depends on whether the cult doesn't know who the leader is, as Treigit claimed, or if they do.
For reversion purposes, it's likely that they don't, so we should be alright, there.
As for the soonest time period at which the cult could pose a threat to us, let's try some math.
We're at 22 townies, let's assume -3 for each full day/night, and 1 successful cult recruitment without crossfire or lynching, and 2 sucessful recruits as of now.
So today, cult =3, total town=22.
Tomorrow, day 3, cult 4, total town=19
Day 4, cult=5, total town =16
Day 5 cult 6 total town =13
Worst case scenario, we'll be in danger by day 5. But depending on what the SK and mafia are up to in the following nights, and whether there was a successful recruition last night, it's quite likely that the cult won't be within striking distance until day 6-7 (if it is still around at all). That's earlier than I expected, but still a good long time in the future.
Vote Azrael.
Are you kidding?
Seriously, I don't have a lot of time right now but this is way, way off.
First, we're not at 22 townies right now. Were at some number significantly less than that with a mafia + unknown number of other neutral roles. While you might argue that you can count the town + mafia bodies when determining at what point the hypothetical Cult takes over, if you do that, the town is screwed well before the end (or might be screwed, depending on who the hypothetical Cult can recruit, if they recruit mafia, and what happens to recruited mafia.)
Second, you have failed to subtract the possible Cult from the number of "townie" bodies remaining. With as many as three possible Cult already, you have to start your countdown with Cult = 3; town + mafia(s) + SK(s) + unknown = 19.
Which is why I said total town, rather than total townies.
I was counting the mafia against the cult's win. If they fail to vote against the cult leader along with the rest of the town, then they're simply opening themselves up to a cult lynch/recruit (if able) + possible town/vig strategy that would take a sizeable bite out of their ranks. Some of them might make it to the end-game to win with the cult, but a good number would not. I don't think that's their ideal scenario.
And if they're not recruitable, then that's even worse for them. If they failed to vote for the cult leader, then even if they managed to nuke the CL with their NK to stave off the cult win, the reverted townsfolk would be all over them.
I don't think you're understanding my numbers.
(Another misunderstanding from Axel...(and another evasion to my questions, I might add) ...simply shocking ).
Day 5 would consist of 13 people in the town, 6 of them cult, in the WCS. That still leaves 7 townies.
Vote Azrael.
To fully clarify, we have 22 people in the town, currently. 3 of them are cult. So, the cult =3/22 of the people in the town. That is what my figures represent.
Vote Azrael.
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
It still seems wrong to count town + mafia + sk + any other neutrals together against a Cult, as if they would be working as a team. If the town gets to the point where they have to focus on Cult, and there are still mafia around, seems like the mafia win.
That said, I'll even agree that I don't consider a Cult a huge immediate threat. That doesn't change my opinion that Tregit is a good lynch. If there's a Cult, he stands a good chance of being the leader. You don't want to assume he's the leader and then get caught later if he isn't.
And I've been on this path too long, I suppose. I can't say with any degree of certainly that I'm sure someone else is Mafia.
Still waiting for Chucklez to answer my question though. And one day I might take that look at Silicon I was meaning to do. If I ever get the time....
No, I'm simply hoping we won't go ahead with a cultist vig plan at this point.
The WCS I did earlier, as you remember, was only if we followed the vig/lynch plan on the suspected cultists.
Vote Azrael.
That's fine. I can see that either way.
How so? Care to refute the scenario I mentioned earlier?
Speaking of waiting for people to answer questions, this is the what, 7th time you've avoided answering my single, solitary question on why you pushed for Kops to claim as likely cult without a case for being mafia? It can't be because you're too busy, you've found the time to reply to several of my posts in detail.
Vote Azrael.
I'll grant that I'm a lot less confident that kops is definitely the CL anymore, but I still don't see why you're convinced that your plan to avoid the cult until the last possible second is more benficial.
Also, just for the sake of my own sanity, could you please actually point out where Axel defended the vigging plan, because I don't specifically recall it, and Axel says he didn't do it.
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
This thread has become rather redundant, with the same faces making the majority of the posts arguing with one another 'til they're blue in the face. I just singled out mosschop, but I'm sure there are others, Chucklez, for example, who haven't made an appearance in a while. It's time to start talking, folks. Some fresh insight would be, well, refreshing.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
If you're referring to this:
...then you most definitely have not answered my question.
Allow me to rephrase, to adjust for your continued dance around the bushes. Why would we want to "evaluate" Kops' claim, without making a case that he was mafia? As townie, or as a cult leader false claiming, it does us no good.
I'm interested in knowing how you define "mislynch", and if you mean "not lynch a mafia", then how exactly do you have the inside information to know our chances?
Axel never actually called for him to be vigged, but he was defending it as acceptable play by attacking my worst-case scenarios (which detailed the flaws in the vig plan). As for his actual stance, I believe he was trying to defend it as a viable option so he could decide what to do once Kops had been forced to claim:
Vote Azrael.
Also, I agree that we need some more input from people. MMoD, Mosschop, Chucklez, and Silicon all come to mind as not having posted/contributed much of anything as of late. If nothing else, a comment on the whole Az/Axel thing could be helpful.
Suspicious of what???
Suspicions in general aren't enough. That's where the problem lies.
Vote Azrael.
EDIT POST: Specifically because his most suspicious action, as most people see it, makes a great deal more sense as cult than mafia.
Vote Azrael
How then do you suppose we find the mafia you're so adamamant about lynching today, if we can't go on suspicions? Of course suspicions aren't enough, but they're the starting point. Suspcions of his actions, suspicions of his name claim led to deeper investigation by way of full claim. To some, even that seems suspicious, thus the reason he still has votes on him. Based on me being suspicious of him, I'm going to try to search for evidence in the thread. If that evidence makes me more suspicious, then I will re-vote for him and advocate that he be lynched.
I move Friday so I will have a connection at the new house by Sunday.
of its steep paths have a chance of gaining its luminous summits"
-Karl Heinrich Marx
Cube
You guys are acting like a) its harder to lynch the CL than the SK, b) cultists can't die and c) the mafia and SK don't have any interest in offing the cult. None of these are true.
Seeing as how were arguing in circles, I think we should be looking at those not bothering to participate in the discussion. I understand its boring, but if we don't talk we give the mafia carte blanche to hide and let us lynch each other.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
I'm not arguing that we don't use suspicions. What I'm saying is, you need a certain kind of suspicions (IE, suspicions of being mafia) in order to pry a legitimate claim out of someone.
Vote Azrael.
Random Mafia 2 Town MVP
'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
Thought: Can you think why kops wouldn't come clean if he was a Cultist? If the Cult reverts upon the death of the leader, that is?
Do you think kops is non-town?
This isn't a lynch-mafia-or-lose situation. This is DAY 2, for crying out loud, and it's not a mini either. As such, it makes sense to lynch the target with the highest probability of being scum. Non-leader cultists don't count as scum for this purpose.
Az is basing all his numbers here assuming the cultists simply revert.
A blind cult where everyone reverts is practically pointless. The cult members have no reason at all to support the cult win condition, the cult leader can't get anything out of his/her followers, etc. But Az is assuming that's what we have here.
In my experience, there's usually a sting in the tail to give some incentive to the cultists. They may retain the cult win condition (just lose the ability to recruit). They may get stripped of their abilities. We probably don't have a suicide cult, but you never know. Or the cult leader could get control of his cultists abilities (vig, inspection etc). All of these things throw the numbers off.
Make an argument that there's someone even more certain to be scum than kops, or get on kops. That numbers game was fog, and about all it actually showed was we don't want to mislynch much in the next few days- well, DUH.
Where is kops, anyway? He's gone awfully quiet, and still hasn't answered some stuff.
And Az, you thinking kops is cult leader not mafia is one thing- you may well be right- but why wouldn't we want to force a claim out of the suspected cult leader?
Also, Axel's point above is cogent and leads to the point that the absence of a second claimed cultist suggests either last night's recruitment missed or else this is not a full reversion cult (ie. the recruit has something to fear from coming out).
I do know that you aren't stupid, but this really is. Don't take this as a flame, but I really need to rip this piece of really pathetic reasoning to shreds. It isn't worthy of you.
1) Explain, please, why everyone shouldn't turn on the cult before they get close to winning. What do you define as close to winning? Why, exactly, would the mafia want to kill a threat to the town that isn't as great a threat to the mafia?
2) You assume for no reason that all the cultists would just come out and claim once they had a majority or whatever. Why? By saying "it's hard not to miss them (by which I assume you mean it's hard to miss them)," you make it seem like it will be easy to kill them once they have a large portion of the town under their control. Why?
3) It IS harder to lynch the CL than the SK. DUH. Are you insane? Did you forget somehow that people who are recruited are still alive in the game, and are able to turn attention to other players? Or even just that their existence makes it require more players to lynch the CL?
4) Planning to deal with the cult by assuming that they are going to die is dangerous at best and idiotic at worst. If they don't, what then? Did you forget that this is a no reveal game? Do you really suggest that we base our play on gambling against the odds?
5) The mafia don't have any interest in offering advantages to the town. You act as if the mafia would somehow prefer that the town won over the cult. Do you honestly have some basis for this COMPLETELY INSANE piece of garbage thinking? Could you provide me with ONE good reason to think that the cult is EVER a threat to the mafia more than the town is? Can you provide ONE good reason for the mafia to target the CL over a town player? Say, hypothetically, that the cult grows to six players. Now, unless the cult knows that they can't recruit mafia, they have exactly zero way of making better decisions than the town regarding who the mafia are. In what way will this ever be a threat to the mafia until the town is completely defeated?
Your whole post was full of assumptions that have absolutely zero basis in fact, and your three points were, each and every one, either wrong or not knowable.
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
If he's the cult leader, of course?
The "numbers game" showed the dangers of not lynching mafia, not simply mislynching. If we suspect Treigit/Kops are not mafia, then we don't want to lynch them at this point. QED?
Also, did DM's last game have a "sting" in the tail?
Whether Kops is town or not, I was slightly ambivalent, leaning towards culthood. Recent developments might change that.
There wouldn't be any danger, supposing he's actually the cult leader. BUT, if our assumption is that he's the cult leader, then forcing him to false claim does us very little good. And, if we're wrong, then it exposes a town role.
I'll allow AS to do the rest of his defending himself, but since it's already been alluded to, the surfacing of new cult members typically makes it easier to find the cult leader via process of elimination.
Ah hah...
Since night 1, you say? By which you mean last night?
And you're confirming all the details of Treigit's cult claim, so far as you're aware of them?
Vote Azrael.
Basically, yes.
If your primary suspicions of him were as cult leader, then some explanation on how forcing the cult leader to false claim would help us might be in order. And/or, if you had a good deal of suspicions on him as possible mafia, then I'd like to see your rationale, and a brief comparison of the evidence against Kops in relation to the other wagons we've seen throughout the game.
Vote Azrael.
Is there anyone you think is scum? There seemed to be an awful lot of "Probably town, possibly scum" in there, which is true for all of us. Also, you seem to have forgotten that Puzzle was confirmed by bluesoul.
Who exactly are these people? You don't seem to have mentioned any of them on your list. And how much more beef do you need? Did you read my PBPA at the start of the day?
One other thing:
I'd actually like it to be you, if you don't mind.
V/LA: 3/21-3/24 & 3/27-3/29
A possibility that I would like to bring up, but I hardly think is likely at all, is the chance that mosschop is the CL whose recruit failed last night (target died, unrecruitable role, rb (rb being the least likely), etc) (also I don't think it's likely that he simply refrained from recruiting b/c then he would have come out sooner)? Similar tactic to the SK in dollar mafia, though I honestly can't remember what his sn was. I just remember that he claimed to be his own target (because of the way he killed, this was possible) in an attempt to clear himself, but happened to get caught by a watcher. Again, this isn't exactly the most likely scenario, but I think it should at least be considered (along with my being the CL if you must).
Obviously they won't all just claim. But some have. Furthermore, the cult grows. Any action will continually have a higher chance of finding cult, especially mafia kills. Cultists will die. It'll be hard to miss them.
Here's where you're partially right. But you didn't go far enough. Clan members refusing to vote the clan leader are what stalls his lynch. But they have to know who the leader is. If that comes in a PM to the clanmembers, one of the turncoats will probably let us know. So the leader most likely won't do that. If the leader says in thread, it's common knowledge again. As soon as it's common knowledge, we can lynch. Not even clan members will be able to stop it. So the best plan for the leader is to not make it common knowledge who he is. In this case, it's just as easy to lynch him as the SK.
That was long and convoluted. Heres the short: Loyal clan members with inside knowledge could make it hard to lynch the leader. But because of our turncoats, that situation won't happen.
See number two. Statistically, cultists will die. It's likely enough we can depend on it. Nothing's for sure, and this is close enough to assurance.
The mafia don't know what kind of advantages the cult will gain as it grows. They don't know what will happen to their members. Most importantly they don't know who the cult is. They need to protect themselves from the unknown. And they're going to by killing people. And as we already know, some of those people will be cult. They don't have to offer advantages to the town. They're going to whether they like it or not. But they won't kill claimed cultists you say. It just makes them more likely to hit SK CL. When cult reverts they'll have done us a favor.
Because right now, the cult isn't big enough to seek out and destroy. And the mafia doesn't see the cult as a threat yet.
I would define "close" as haing the potential to win in a day or two.
When the cult wins, everyone else loses.
Because there's a lot of them. If the SK and mafia both make a kill, one of them’s very likely to be a cultist. The town can also make a lynch. And if any of these kills is the CL himself, the problem is completely solved.
Why? They don’t know who the CL is, and even if they did they aren’t necessarily loyal. And if the identity of the CL becomes public knowledge, he will die.
There is no guaranteed win for the town in this game. Of the hazards that face us now, the cult is probably the least. The mafia is the most. We need to play the anti-town roles against each other to weaken them enough for a town win.
If the cult is 6 players, and there are 13 players alive, I believe you can understand the threat to the mafia and SK.
My points are not unreasonable or even that hard to think of. I don't know why you suddenly consider me insane.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Okay, so the town shouldn't target the cult because the mafia will deal with it, and the mafia shouldn't deal with the cult because the town should deal with it. Fine. My point is that the second point here will remain true even after the first becomes false.
Your answer to the second question makes it seem that you understand this, but you're coming to the wrong conclusion. From the mafia perspective, the town is a threat and the cult is a way to kill that threat. The town would have to be completely neutralized before the cult starts to become a problem for the mafia. (See your 6 cultists out of 13 players example below.)
Until the cult is actually a majority of the players, it is more likely for people to get non-cultists than cultists. Once the cult is a majority, then (assuming that they don't all claim) they have a massive amount of control over what happens, just by persuasion and the power of their votes, if nothing else.
Pardon me, but the identity of the CL is pretty evident as either Treigit or kops. Considering that you are arguing that we should let the CL live, you're kind of undermining your own argument here.
How do you propose that the cult play against the mafia? The cult leader has to choose players he think are town if he wants his cult to grow. What other weapon does he have? Sure, the mafia could eliminate the cult for us, but this isn't a matter of having two anti-town forces collide to the benefit of the town, because the mafia doesn't care about the cult except as a means to play mind games with the town, or until after the town is completely wasted. The cult is a threat to the town, though, and unless we kill them, the mafia get to watch as the cult and the town wrest influence over the lynch from each other and laugh.
I reference this above. If the cult is 6 players out of 13, then the town is well-done. There's no point in the town allowing it to go this far. If they did, though, you'd be right, and the mafia might want to do something about it, secure in the knowledge that there's no way for the town to win.
Your points are not well thought-out, and they lead to self-destructive behavior that is nonsensical in the extreme. Sounds like insanity to me.
Mafia MVP BM Mafia
Mafia MVP Matrix Mafia
Has it been proven yet that the cult members know who each other are? (besides the leader, of course)
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Treigit (1)- CropCircles
Jobie (3)- kops723, arimnaes, DYH
kops723 (2)- carrion pigeons, Treigit
Azrael (1)- Azrael
Axelrod (1)- Abandon Hope
Not Voting (14)- Machin Shin, Jobie, Axelrod, Kenji, krashbot, aurorasparrow, silicon, Puzzle, RafaelK, Chucklez, mosschop, MMoD, Xyre, bluesoul
Right answer, or close enough. My point was that kops didn't make sense as non-leader cultist, which had been mooted as a reason to not lynch kops.
Mosschop has eliminated that theory, anyway, glad to know I'm right at least that far.
No, because it contains too many assumptions.
If the cult is anything but straight reversion (which would be an incredibly weak cult... get down to 10 cultists and one mafia, the one mafia kills the leader and suddenly everyone's town again? Come on), then the danger is not just not lynching mafia, the danger is not lynching all the scum.
We don't want to lynch ordinary cultists, but your logic falls down as to not lynching the cult leader. I'm fully open to kops being mafia anyway. Recent developments have even tilted me in that direction further:
1) the cult leader may have very good reason not to expose his/her identity to the cultists, but a mafia wouldn't know that
2) kops signal back to Treigit ("Time") had nothing to do with the god now claimed as cult leader, Lene God of Humility, suggesting he didn't actually know wtf he was talking about with that signal
You? Playing "second-guess the mod"? Come on. I'm really starting to feel that we've got a 1-2 punch coming up here on kops then you showing up mafia, because as town you call people out for exactly this kind of thing.
For the record, the last few cults on this site have all had problems. The only second guessing I'm prepared to do is that dm won't have directly copied the way any of them work.
Right, so we just don't ask suspected scum to claim?
That's also a risk with asking a suspected mafia to claim. We can always be wrong. That's not a reason to not ask.
This stuff sounds good, superficially, but it's blatantly illogical Az.
Ah hah...
Since night 1, you say? By which you mean last night?
And you're confirming all the details of Treigit's cult claim, so far as you're aware of them?
Vote Azrael.
I'll even break my own rules and take this part of your questions for Axelrod, seeing as it is so dumb.
The whole point of extracting claims from suspicious people is that false-claims are difficult and may give people away if they muck up. Do you think there's no worth in identifying kops as cult leader (if that's what he is)?
Amazingly enough, kops DID muck up his false claim with the God of X and Y thing he had to backpedal on. Funny how these things turn out.
kops: Telling me the equivalent of "suck it up, princess" at risk of losing your "power role" doesn't inspire me with confidence. No, that's not true. It inspires me with confidence that you made up the power role to give you a stick to shake.
Also, I liked mosschop on day 1 (said so, too) and committing to having no powers and being cult etc this early (it is only day 2, in spite of Az' panic merchanting) is a long way out for a cult leader to be running that sort of gambit.
Oh, and you forgot you were going after Jobie, but that's OK, I didn't think you were sincere about that anyway.
vote kops
AH and AS: You're all assuming that our turncoats are 100% honest and would turn their leader in if they knew who it was and would revert afterwards. I have a bridge to sell you.
If I was a non-revert cultist, I would be doing exactly this, hoping that me and my mates would be seen as confirmed townies once the leader died and that one or more of us would make it to the end.
EBWDP: Some of the above (including one of Azrael's self votes) inadvertently fell out of quote tags. For the sake of clarity, unvote, vote kops
Well, yeah, mosschop knows that treigit is the other cultist and vice versa
Seriously though, the only thing Rafk gave me to actually address in the above post is this:
Umm... where the hell did you get the idea that I've forgotten? Did I ever say something about not voting right now, or anything of the sort? I don't believe I did, it just wasn't the current issue. I am still quite sincere about it as I don't think anybody else has anywhere near as much chance of being scum (except maybe you, but I would need to make a reread to determine that, so I'm not going to take that suspicion anywhere until I have time to do that, which may not be for a while what with school just starting)
Vote kops723
Random Mafia 2 Town MVP
'08 MTGS Fantasy Football Overall Champion
Best Non-SK Neutral Performance (Individual)
Your turn to misread my post. That question was assuming he wasn't Cult Leader (I thought it was obvious, but I could have said "mere" Cultist or "simple" Cultist to clarify.) The ultimate point being that if he's not a recruit, but is actually the leader, then pushing for the claim would be a good thing. As would it if he's mafia instead.
I was speculating that Kops didn't make much sense as a recruit in the Cult that has been described, because he should have outed himself (as MossChop amazingly just did) There would seem to be no reason for a mere recruit not to do so.
If he were Cult Leader, forcing him to claim helps us the same way forcing a mafia to claim helps us. He would be a force that needs to be eliminated before the end. I thought you agreed with that, and your argument was that it didn't make sense to go after "mere" Cultists.
As for Mafia possibilities, I don't know where you had kops after Day one, but he was top 5 in my possible mafia list. I expressed my suspicions as early as post #310, and didn't really change them. I think he might have been the one I was voting before I switched over to MD right at the end. So question "my rationale" if you want. But don't try to say that I wasn't suspicious of him - and suspicious of him as mafia. I didn't know squat about the Cult at that point.
There is absolutely no way I'm "comparing" the evidence against kops in this game to the evidence against all the other players who have had suspicion cast on them this game. That would take days at my current pace.
Hm.. so now we have both cultists, interesting.
I don't think I agree with the group suggesting to lynch kops, but that may change with a reread.
Yep.
And yet, straight reversion cults are as common as any other, often more common. Otherwise, you could have the disastrously hilarious scenario of 10 cultists and 1 mafia, mafia kills the cult leader, mafia wins instantly.
Whee, I can do this too.
But yeah, if it's not a straight reversion cult, we're facing three NKs a night, and the game was completely unbalanced from the start. There very well might be a twist we don't know about it (protective role for the CL, for instance), but if it's the recruits guzzling poisoned kool-aid, then DM was completely off his rockers.
Mm hmm. So unless Mosschop and treigit are both lying, that would seem to clear him of the cult breadcrumb charge.
I'm looking forward to hearing this phantom case for Kops as mafia, however. It's been referred to time and again, but has never materialized.
I do???
In this very post, I was "second-guessing" the mod on the likelihood of a death cult, and you were second-guessing me right back.
That wouldn't surprise me much, but again, I don't think the death cult twist is all that likely.
Heh. Nah, but if we're very sure of what they are, and there's no need to deal with them immediately, it's safe to let them sit till you're ready to nail them.
But that, of course, just leads us back round the circle.
Well, it depends on whether mafia are recruitable or not, and whether they keep their status. If the townies had their wins and status overwritten, the mafia may as well.
Unfortunately, there's no way of knowing that, but there is at least a possibility that the cult could pose a danger to the mafia by cutting back their victory threshold.
If the mafia eventually decides to do something about it, (IE, kill the cult leader) then the town would certainly have a chance again, afterwards. It's just a matter of the mafia not misplaying with their kill target.
Scummy.
Also, you misunderstood Raf.
Mm hmm. And I agree with that.
Eh, round and round in circles we go, see quote with Raf above.
Oh, I'm not saying that you weren't suspicious of him earlier.
What I'm looking for is justification that he's not small-fry compared to folks like say...Tregit in your mind, and you in mine.
I don't need anything too detailed, or any quotations, just whatever thoughts that come to mind.
Convince me.
Hmm.
*takes a note*
Vote Azrael.
Besides the faulty rationale, I also enjoy the attempted linking there.
I'm sure you remember from Romance mafia that I'm typically very cautious about defending mafia (who I actually know about). So that's an interesting shot, coming from you.
Vote Azrael.
You missed Azrael and Axelrod off in their own little world arguing about the dangers of lynching suspected cultists and/or mafia for about 10 pages, kops false claiming, being caught in his false claim, and finally claiming doc, and Mosschop has stepped forward as the second cult recruit, somewhat confirming Treigit's story.
Az:
Could you tell me how I misinterpreted this?
Seems to me like RafK is saying he doesn't like that kops said, "I'm a power role, and you guys can lynch me if you want to lose my role." It also seems like RafK is saying that with that, coupled with a possible explanation for the weird breadcrumbing, kops could be mafia. Obviously, if I'm wrong, then RafK can feel free to object or set me straight or whatever, but I'm not sure you should be telling me what somebody else meant to say.
I was referring to this part, actually:
Which might end up clearing, not confirming, the charge of Kops being cult.
Vote Azrael.
Vote Azrael.