I think people are looking at a degenerate situation where the dollar value of a set is concentrated almost entirely in one or two specific cards, so that their value will shoot up to figures like $80. If every single mythic in a set is desirable then they really can't possibly shoot up to more than around $25 apiece due to the ease of pulling them from packs, but hypothetically if one or two were incredibly good, all the others crappy, and all the regular rares were devalued down to $.50-$2 due to their greater availability, you could at least hypothetically get a situation where a couple specific mythics were selling for $40+.
True. But that set would have to be like Future Sight II, and that Mythic Tarmogoyf II. And the odds of that happening, albeit very real, are minimal. WotC have screwed up before, but they also have learned from their mistakes. They learned the ''be careful with cheap equipment'' lesson after Skullclamp and Umezawa's Jitte (the lesson here was that making the equipment legendary: not a solution) and the only playable one since is Loxodon Warhammer. I'm fairly sure Tarmogoyf follows up on Wild Mongrel's shoes and we'll never see a Green weenie of those levels for a long time, if ever. And those are merely the recent ones: They learned a lot with Cloud of Sprites, Dark Ritual, Artifacts (Mirrodin), Counterspell itself...
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Mythic rarity doesn't make it more likely that they'll screw up and generate a $40-50 card. The chance will exist then just like it existed in the past, and exists now. Discussing future Tarmogoyfs ruining our budgets = valid. Putting that responsability on the Mythic rarity's shoulders = not valid.
I find it really amusing that there's any fear of ''a broken $100 Mythic Rare!'' when a booster box costs ~$75 (This is not pointed at you, RayZorback, your article is awesome and you are merely analyzing the fear, not being a part of it). I fail to see how people will have to pay $400 for a playset of said ''omg broken :o'' Mythic Rare when, for the same $400, they can get 5-6 boxes, which in turn translates into 20-24 Mythic Rares and 160-192 regular rares at the following odds:
1. With only 15 Mythics in Shards of Alara, chances are that you'll get at least one of each among the 20-24 Mythics you'd get by buying 5-6 boxes rather than just the playset of the Mythic you want (plus you'll get a 2nd, maybe 3d-4th copy of any of them, but let's consider you'll only get one). By getting a single copy of the ''$100 Mythic'' with 5-6 boxes you already got 25% of the money you spent back, with a single friggin' card. I find it really unlikely that you'll get all that money back with a single card, otherwise people would just buy 48 packs ($100) rather than a single copy of the Mythic, because it's very likely that, among those 48 packs, you'll get those $100 back or at least 90% of it (with the possibility of getting more money back).
2. With only 53 rares in Shards of Alara and 160-192 rares in 5-6 boxes, chances are that you'll get at least three copies of each regular rare. Even if you only get a single copy of the million-dollars Mythic (say, Garruk 2.0), you'll get ~2-4 of every Thoughtseize, Mutavault, and dual land in the set. Those rares alone will more than make up for the money you didn't spend in 3/4 of the desired Mythic. If you can trade EVERY SINGLE CARD you get in those 5-6 boxes except the one copy of the desired Mythic for the remaining three copies, you're as goos as buying the playset of the Mythic for $400. But I'm betting that every other card in your 5-6 boxes are all worth more than 3 copies of the ''broken mythic'' when you add their values up.
This is all simple math and I know that cards aren't 100% randomly distributed among boxes, but you can't argue that, in average, you'll expect to get **at least** one copy of each Mythic and 3 copies of each rare in 5-6boxes. All those cards coupled together *have* to be worth more than a playset of any given card in a set, ***specially*** because MaRo specifically said that our Thoughtseizes, Duals, Chars and Mutavaults won't be Mythics.
The $100 dollar Mythic is borderline impossible, simply because under the new system, a hundred dollars spent in Magic will get you much more than what it gets you right now.
For the tournament player who already buys all the duals and staples, and 1-2 chase rares such as Blossom and Goyf, there will be no extra expenses (in fact, I predict we'll end up spending less with Magic). For casual players and players who only buy a single deck, they'll have to spend money accordingly to how many Mythics (if any) are there in their desired deck. Sure if you only plan on making one Standard deck when Shards of Alara comes and that deck absolutely needs 4 copies of a given Mythic and little else (and note that your deck is disregarding four full sets from the Lor-Sha block plus the base set, which is very unlikely), then you'll spend a little more money in that deck than you would right now in a deck with 4 Garruks and nothing but commons and uncommons.
But guess what? You'll have a higher chance to pull a good rare out of your pack(s), so you can just trade them away for Garruk 2.0 or just sell them for the money
With all due respect, the actual mathematical formula (discussed at length in a different thread that I don't want to mention because of all the idiocy I went through to figure it out) is 1 - (119/120)^36 = .26.
In short it is derived from Wizards saying that you will open a mythic rare in 1 in 8 booster packs. There are 15 possible mythic rares and we are looking for 1 of them in Alara so that is 1 in 15. So, (1/8)*(1/15)=1/120. Then you do the "other probability formula stuff" to get the 1 - & ^36. Visit www.FreeMathHelp.com for more! LOL
So the probability of opening a certain broken mythic rare in a box is .26 or 26%. When you extend this for 6 boxes (36*6), the probability of opening one particular broken mythic rare is only 83%
Opening 20 boxes nets you a probability of 99.90%
You forget that in a Booster Box, you will probably only have 4 or 5 mythic rares at all!!
The regular rare probabilities? 7 in 8 chance in every booster pack to open a regular rare (cuz 1 in 8 are mythic). There are 53 possible rares & we are looking for 1 broken one: (7/8)*(1/53)=7/424
1-(417/424)^36=.59
6 Boxes? 1-(417/424)^(36*6) =.97 12 Boxes nets you the 99.92%.
You wanna know what the chance of opening a Goyf in a box of Futuresight?
1 of 60 Rares in a box of 36 boosters
1-(59/60)^36=.45
6 Boxes? 1-(59/60)^(36*6)=.97 12 Boxes also nets 99.92%
So, if Goyf if half the price of 1 box (~$40) of 36 boosters, then what would our BROKEN Mythic Rare (BMR) be if it slips through the cracks?
Goyf: 1/24th of the price of 12 boxes (its 99.9% chance).
BMR: 1/24th of the price of 20 boxes (its 99.9% chance) is $66.67 (I'm not kidding. This means that Mythic Rares are EVIL!) LOL. This isn't exact, but it might be a good estimate.
The most probable price would between the 60's & 90's somewhere I guess. I agree with you that it isn't LIKELY to have a $100+ broken mythic rare, but I believe it is possible depending on the prices of other products & how BROKEN the card is. It will definitely be RARE enough!
It is kinda a wait and see type of deal. Hopefully they won't mes up! We really have no idea how much more "valuable" to game play the Mythic Rares will be. And probabilities or not, GAME PLAY is what matters. Not Rarity. That is why the BROKEN Mythic Rare messes EVERYTHING up.
I think I'm going to have to add the above pricing analysis to my article!
You said that Wizards wasn't 100% random, but I've asked and they said that cards are randomized by rarities into the packs and then the packs are randomized into the booster boxes. Believe them or not, but that is what they said to me.
Also, since THEY provide the numbers: 1 in 8 booster packs should be Mythic Rares, even if they "help" the randomization, it should still be 1 in 8. They provided that information with a certain certainty and they will make sure that stays about average. Why would they try to prove themselves wrong one way or the other? LOL!
Thanks again for reading my article. I really appreciate the feedback as I am just getting started!!
Thanks to yakusoku for the Math Mastery in "that other thread" that I don't want to mention!
I didn't forget that there's only 4-5 mythics in a box, else I wouldn't have mentioned that in 5-6 boxes we are getting ~20-24 mythics. Since there's only 15 different ones in Shards of Alara, we can expect to get ~1 of each. I know that isn't a guarantee, I know it isn't one of each plus 4-9 extra ones, but that's the average, that's what we should expect. You say the odds of opening that given mythic in 5-6 boxes is 83%? It's still good enough, specially considering all the other cards you'll get by buying those packs rather than simple shelling out $400 for a playset of the ''broken mythic''.
You forget that Tarmogoyf was, by *far*, the only truly good card in a fairly bad set. One that wasn't even appreciated in the beginning, mind you, so it was possible to get it on the cheap if you paid attention. Besides the lands (and Nimbus Maze + Grove of the Burnwillows are cheaper than our average dual land) and Venser nothing else really stands out in FS, such that buying a box of Future Sight is only a good deal if we open a Tarmogoyf, and a pretty bad deal if we don't. We can't expect a set to be both incredibly sucky and have a Mythic rare as the only good rare. Yes that can happen but we can't take that for granted when evaluing the new rarity, that's all. It's not a common occurance by any means. Specially with their explanation of what cards will be Mythic and what cards won't (ie good cards will tend to be, in most cases, a regular rare).
Your examples suggest that if they screw up ''Tarmogoyf-like'' again, the broken rare will cost more than Tarmogoyf. Even if that's true, you are forgetting that in every other set that they don't screw up, cards will cost less than they do right now. If they screw up once every 15 sets (for example), we're still paying less for our duals, Mutavaults and Thoughtseizes 14/15 of the time, and paying more for the good rare 1/15 of the time. To me it's crystal clear that we can't put the responsability of a rare skyrocketing in the future in the new rarity's shoulders. The new changes will make the majority of the good cards cost less in the majority of the time. That can't possibly be a bad thing, and that's what I'm trying to put across here. People can't base their opinions about something on corner cases and anomalities like Tarmogoyf. Because, when we do that, everything looks awful.
I've seen several posts saying (and I'm paraphrasing), "If we ignore 'goyf, the prices normalize, etc, etc."
The thing about 'goyf is, he can't be ignored, unless you like losing. The same will be true of hypothetical mythic 'goyf 2.0... which is inevitable, once mythic rarity is established.
The thing about 'goyf is, he can't be ignored, unless you like losing. The same will be true of hypothetical mythic 'goyf 2.0... which is inevitable, once mythic rarity is established.
'Goyf rotates soon, and when people say 'ignore it' they mean that it is a 'once in the history of magic' fluke. (A green creature being the most expensive card in standard for many many many years, playable in all formats, etc)
Mythic rarity doesn't make another 'Goyf priced card inevitable any more than printing more cards makes another 'Goyf inevitable.
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Thoughtseize was similar in a sense... Obviously the exact specifics of tarmogoyf are unlikely to turn up again, but the kind of behaviour may well.
Actually, I can agree with this in general, although not the specifics of a 50$ plus card.
In Standard, we are seeing a large variety of decks being considered viable and tournament worthy. However, there are cards that are played in several of these decks ('goyf, Mutavault, Thoughtseize are good examples of this), which increases their demand by a lot, which is what is helping to drive their prices really high.
I think that from now on, we will be seeing more cards that are like this. WotC is attempting to adjust for that by putting more of these kinds of cards in uncommon and by lowering the average cost of rare cards, but I think we'll be seeing more staple rare get to that high price range than in the past (ie. Thoughtseize's price is not a fluke, although the other two are).
There's a third group of people that Urzasseditives forgot. The people who are smart enough to analyze the situation for what it truly is. An inevitability. We understand the game well enough that we can foresee an inevitability: The eventuality of a singular (hopefully) mistake on Wizards part that will put a much larger than usual dent in the wallets of players who want to stay competitive.
We're not saying it will ruin magic, we are saying however that it will create really big problems. All it takes is one mistake and that's it...so unless Wizards can foresee every possible mistake that could possibly happen EVER (not possible), then yes...Mythics are perfect. However, since all humans make mistakes, and Wizards is (I think) run by humans...they will eventually make a mistake and print a chase Mythic. Whether it's in Alara or some point down the road...who knows...but it will happen...and we will see 60$+ mythics.
I didn't forget that there's only 4-5 mythics in a box, else I wouldn't have mentioned that in 5-6 boxes we are getting ~20-24 mythics. Since there's only 15 different ones in Shards of Alara, we can expect to get ~1 of each. I know that isn't a guarantee, I know it isn't one of each plus 4-9 extra ones, but that's the average, that's what we should expect. You say the odds of opening that given mythic in 5-6 boxes is 83%? It's still good enough, specially considering all the other cards you'll get by buying those packs rather than simple shelling out $400 for a playset of the ''broken mythic''.
You forget that Tarmogoyf was, by *far*, the only truly good card in a fairly bad set. One that wasn't even appreciated in the beginning, mind you, so it was possible to get it on the cheap if you paid attention. Besides the lands (and Nimbus Maze + Grove of the Burnwillows are cheaper than our average dual land) and Venser nothing else really stands out in FS, such that buying a box of Future Sight is only a good deal if we open a Tarmogoyf, and a pretty bad deal if we don't. We can't expect a set to be both incredibly sucky and have a Mythic rare as the only good rare. Yes that can happen but we can't take that for granted when evaluing the new rarity, that's all. It's not a common occurance by any means. Specially with their explanation of what cards will be Mythic and what cards won't (ie good cards will tend to be, in most cases, a regular rare).
Your examples suggest that if they screw up ''Tarmogoyf-like'' again, the broken rare will cost more than Tarmogoyf. Even if that's true, you are forgetting that in every other set that they don't screw up, cards will cost less than they do right now. If they screw up once every 15 sets (for example), we're still paying less for our duals, Mutavaults and Thoughtseizes 14/15 of the time, and paying more for the good rare 1/15 of the time. To me it's crystal clear that we can't put the responsability of a rare skyrocketing in the future in the new rarity's shoulders. The new changes will make the majority of the good cards cost less in the majority of the time. That can't possibly be a bad thing, and that's what I'm trying to put across here. People can't base their opinions about something on corner cases and anomalities like Tarmogoyf. Because, when we do that, everything looks awful.
I can see your points.
But, lets take your 15 set example. They don't "screw up" with a BROKEN Mythic Rare in 15 sets, however, in those 15 sets, there will always be the "most powerful", tourney caliber cards of that set. Even if they aren't "broken". The most powerful cards (like a Bitter Blossom) for that set would still get a premium when compared with all the other cards in the set. Goyf may not be as broken if it was in a different set with other "goyf type" cards. What makes it broken isn't ONLY the card, but also how THAT card competes against the others in the format.
Wizards is really going to have to focus on BALANCE as much as possible.
I think we will always have a few $30 - $40 cards because of how MTG has evolved over the last few years and the popularity of the pro tour. Really, $40 x 4 is a small price to pay when you could make $40,000 with it!
I do hope you are right & I understand what you are saying, but statistically speaking, they may be a lot more rare than we think.
Luckily, there will be websites devoted to the sale and distribution of these cards so, they will be easy to find that way... but at what price?
Given all the factors, you'd have to say that a "Goyf Mythic Rare" (that isn't supposed to ever exist) would have to be more expensive than the "Goyf Rare." (Please feel free to exchange the word "Goyf" for "BROKEN".) With all of the above math in my previous post, I think a $60 minimum to $90 max is a pretty good estimation. Really, we just don't know because we haven't seen an example of the Mythic Rare (except for the blank planes walker).
It would do a lot to chill everyone out if Wizards would leak one of those so we can know what types of cards to expect as "Mythic Rares". Then maybe we could shove 4 proxies into a current deck, just to see how they play!!
Overall, I'm looking forward to it. I think it will be really interesting.
I've seen several posts saying (and I'm paraphrasing), "If we ignore 'goyf, the prices normalize, etc, etc."
The thing about 'goyf is, he can't be ignored, unless you like losing. The same will be true of hypothetical mythic 'goyf 2.0... which is inevitable, once mythic rarity is established.
100% true! This is like those people saying, "Don't buy gas on Tuesday & gas prices will drop." That is BS. Everyone will fill up on Monday or Wednesday!!
"Ignore Goyf and the price will drop." - Even if that did happen, you have to remember why you want the price to drop?... so you can BUY it! Hypothetical:: EVERYONE ignores Goyf for 3 months (no one plays with it, buys it, clicks on it, etc...). As soon as the "time to ignore it" is up, the price SKY ROCKETS instantly. It is a basic economic fact: The Market knows more than any one individual.
I have been thinking about this a lot. Let us say for the sake of argument that there is this super Uber broken mythic out there that is $100. You have to have it just to play in your local FNM and win.
Broken Mythic rare 1 in 120 = $100
Reg Mythic Rares 1 in 8 = $5-$10
Reg Money rare (Figure 6 in a set) Aprox 1 in 10 = $5-$15
Medium Rare (worth more than $1) figure the other half of the rares 1 in 3= $1
Crap rare = $.20 for sake of argument here
So out of 4 Boxes purchased online for $80 shipped (This is what I get them at all the time)
Invested $320 for 144 packs
Return Aprox.
1 Broken Rare $100
17 Other Mythic Rares Aprox $7.50 each AVG $127.50
15 Money Rares Aprox $10 each $150
48 Decent Rares Aprox $2.50 each $120
63 crap rares $12.60
$510 for a $320 investment
even without the Uber Mythic that is worth $100 and they all avg out to $7.50 each this is still $417 Plus all the uncommons and Commons you can sell So figure a $200 profit margin on this or $50 per BOX
So tell me how this is a bad thing.
With the rule of supply vs demand if we did get a broken mythic the price couldnt go much higher than $50 without people just getting more boxes to sell them driving the cost of the card down as well as the cost of all the other rares due to a flooded market place.
edit: This is proven by the prices of future sight where the value of all the cards add up to the cost of the box
I am going to do a future sight analisis and show the actual cost of pulling a tarmy compared to purchasing them.
edit:
Two boxes of future sight $160 shipped
Number of rares 72
number of tarmys 1.2
number of decent rares 22.8
Avg value of those decent rares $ 75.94
Value of Playset of Uncommon+commons $ 22.00
Value of Tarmy $ 35.00
Total "known" value $ 132.94
Jank Rares (48) $ 12.00
number of foils 24
Aprox Value of foils $ 24.00
This is based on: (all prices are MOTL)
Tarmogoyf $35.00
Magus of the Moon $6.84
Venser, Shaper Savant $5.06
Korlash, Heir to Blackblade $4.79
Pact of Negation $4.57
Horizon Canopy $4.52
River of Tears $4.37
Sliver Legion $3.96
Glittering Wish $3.30
Nimbus Maze $3.24
Graven Cairns (FUT) $2.95
Akroma's Memorial $2.80
Grove of the Burnwillows $2.79
Slaughter Pact $2.77
Tombstalker $2.44
Bridge from Below $2.40
Epochrasite $2.19
Coalition Relic $1.73
Shimian Specter $1.52
Summoner's Pact $1.04
With all due respect, the actual mathematical formula (discussed at length in a different thread that I don't want to mention because of all the idiocy I went through to figure it out) is 1 - (119/120)^36 = .26.
With all due respect, the actual mathematical formula is 1 - (120/121)^36 = .258.
In short it is derived from Wizards saying that you will open a mythic rare in 1 in 8 booster packs.
Wizards never said that. They said approximately 1 in 8. Regardless of whether you believe how we know what it will actually be, the one thing it can't be is exactly 1 in 8.
But given the numbers 53 "normal" rares and 15 mythic rares, and the long proven fact that Wizards prints cards on fixed sheets of 11*N cards, it is trivial to conclude that this set will have a 121-card sheet with 1 of each mythic rare and 2 of each "normal" rare. Because (15 + 2*53) = 121. And these values agree with what Rosewater said, about comparing rarities to sets from the past. In the parlance used for early sets, a mythic rare is an R1 and "normal" rare is an R2.
But that formula you misquoted assumes that rares are placed in boxes in a perfectly random way. That is something that we know is not true. If it were, for example, the average number of different rares you would have gotten in one box of Shadowmoore is about 29, and in three boxes it is about 59. Does that sound right, or was it more? If it was, than your numbers need to be similarly increased.
So the probability of opening a certain broken mythic rare in a box is .26 or 26%. When you extend this for 6 boxes (36*6), the probability of opening one particular broken mythic rare is only 83%
But since we know Wizards doesn't pack perfectly randomly, it will actually be higher than that.
The regular rare probabilities? 7 in 8 chance in every booster pack to open a regular rare (cuz 1 in 8 are mythic). There are 53 possible rares & we are looking for 1 broken one: (7/8)*(1/53)=7/424
Actually, 2/121. Nearly the same, but why use approximate data that leads to strange numbers like "424," when the actual numbers are known?
And rather than all that work, you could just have noticed that a "broken mythic rare" is just about as easy to get as a "broken Onslaught/Odyssey/Invasion/Masques/Tempest/Mirage/6E/7E/8E/9E rare" (1/110 to 1/121); just as easy as a "Broken Revised/Ice Age/4E/10E rare," and easier than a "Broken 5E rare" (1/132). Since we have lots of experience with rares that are just about as hard to get as a mythic rare, I doubt we will see significantly higher prices than in the past.
You said that Wizards wasn't 100% random, but I've asked and they said that cards are randomized by rarities
They don't mean "uniform probability distribution" random. They mean they took steps so that you can't be sure what is in any given pack until you open it. As I have told you repeatedly, and you have ignored repeatedly, we can look at the distribution of rares from the past and prove that they are not random in the sense you want it to mean. For some previous sets, we were even able to deduce the order of the print run (just search this forum for "print run"). And yes, those same packs said "random" on the side, like they do today.
Believe them or not, but that is what they said to me.
It's perfectly believeable, as long as you don't assume it means what you want it to.
For the people saying that there won't be a second 'goyf: You really remind me of those people who used to say that there won't be another skullclamp. While Umezawa's jitte was also in standard. Wizards makes mistakes and mythic rares will make those mistakes cost out more for the players.
Edit: besides statistics, one should consider psychology to determine pricing. Mythic rares sound grand and will easily cost more than past core set rares.
Since we have lots of experience with rares that are just about as hard to get as a mythic rare, I doubt we will see significantly higher prices than in the past.
I seriously don't understand why so many people don't consider this to be relevant information in determining the hypothetical prices of mythics.
They don't mean "uniform probability distribution" random.
Right. In a true random distribution (that is, each pack has an independent 1/121 or 2/121 chance of having any given rare) you'd see most boxes including duplicate rares. What Wizards does instead is distribute rares from printed sheets in a pseudo-random manner that provides a more even distribution within each given booster box; I imagine one of the results of this is that most boxes will hew pretty closely to the range of 4-5 mythics included, rather than falling throughout a wider range.
For the people saying that there won't be a second 'goyf: You really remind me of those people who used to say that there won't be another skullclamp. While Umezawa's jitte was also in standard.
Umezawa's Jitte isn't another Skullclamp. The latter made a mockery even of an already crappy Standard format and had to be banned from every format on up; Jitte was annoying to play against in Standard but isn't even a problem in today's Extended.
I really don't think anyone here is suggesting that Wizards won't make more mistakes down the road, but given the duration between really significant development mistakes of this nature (look how long it was between Jitte and Tarmogoyf) I don't think it's really worth worrying about as much as people do.
Mutavault and Bitterblossom are an entirely new kind of mistake -- cards that aren't overpowered at all but which are problematic on the secondary market because they go in too many decks. I think R&D can learn to avoid this now that they've seen it happen, and the greater commonality of rares from Alara forwards should actually help this as these are the rares specifically stated as being inappropriate for mythic status.
Ok, i have not read the article (bad me) but from what i have read from the ppl that have read the article this is what i have gotten:
1)Mythic rares will make it easier to come by rares.
2)They will make common rares cheaper.
Here is what i see though, magic is trying to bring prices up. Easy as that. You say that Mythic rares make it easier to come by regular rares, well doesn't making the set smaller do that? You say that Mythic rares make rares cheaper, well now you have expensive Mythic rares.
Ok, here is what i see to come out of adding Mythic rares.
Rares will become cheaper, yes, because now all rares will either be land rares, stapple rares, or combo rares. So of course rares will be cheap, these are not the cards ppl usually go for.
Now Mythic rares, they will have all the really good creatures, good spells, and anything else that might make you win a game, and because of their new rarity, you can expect to be paying alot.
You say that there will only be a few Mythic rares in a set, so not all the good cards will be Mythic. Doesn't a set usually only release a few good rares anyways. Well now those few good cards are Mythic rare. Harder to get, and price to match.
When you look at it, this is not going to make magic cheaper in the long run but make it much more expensive if you want to play competitive standard. Why do you think that so many ppl choose not to play standard but extended only, becuase extended is cheaper.
I do beleive that making each set smaller is a good idea, but adding Mythic rare is bad.
What i beleive you will be seeing after the release of Mythic rares.
Mythic Rares - 10 out of 15 competitve play use and highly wanted. Highly priced $20-$40. The remaining 5 unwanted $10-$15.
Rares - 10 out of 45 (if your lucky) competitive play use and highly wanted. Priced $10-$25.
The remaining 35 unwanted $5-$15. (mainly wanted would be dual land or such.)
The way i see it, it will come down to really expensive good cards, and cheap crap cards and land cards.
All in all, making the sets smaller was a good idea and adding Mythic rares is a bad idea.
*Now for side effects :)*
They lose a majority of their standard format players (because it costs to much to play) and they stay with the older, cheaper set.
Those that remain will go broke from trying to buy these Mythic rares or buying boster boxes to get playsets.
I imagine one of the results of this is that most boxes will hew pretty closely to the range of 4-5 mythics included, rather than falling throughout a wider range.
Good point. IF it were truly random (which it won't be), that wider range would be:
0 Mythic rares: 2.3% (roughly 1 in 50).
1 Mythic rares: 9.2% (roughly 1 in 11)
2 Mythic rare : 17.8% (roughly 1 in 6)
3 Mythic rares: 22.2% (roughly 2 in 9)
4 Mythic rares: 20.1% (roughly 1 in 5)
5 Mythic rares: 14.2% (roughly 1 in 7)
6 Mythic rares: 8.1% (roughly 1 in 12)
7 Mythic rares: 3.8% (roughly 1 in 26)
8+ Mythic rares: 2.2% (roughly 1 in 45)
The most significant part of which is that more than half the boxes will have 3 or less. When that fails to happen, we should know (well, some of us already know) that distribution isn't "random" in the mathematical sense.
The point isn't that the difference is small; it is that you don't understand the numbers you are trying to use. Which you have argued with.
Etllag said that MARO used the same numbers. Is that true? Did he use the 1/120 = (1/8*1/15) or did he use the 1/121 (because cards are printed on 11*N sheets?)
Edit: I can't find that print run thread. Can you link it?
I did find a post by Onderzeeboot who created an awesome XL file. That I have attached. But he also uses the 1/120 math.
I talked about this some upthread: there's a point at which supply and demand are in balance; cards that have more supply than this (almost all commons and uncommons, plus janky rares) have a much lower cost, while cards that have more demand than this (popular rares) have much higher cost. Comparing card prices across this gap (say, between uncommons and chase rares) will exaggerate the difference in price, while comparing prices of two cards on the same side of the gap (say, rares from a large set and rares from a small set) will tend to show a very small difference.
That is my point you will create a new price gap between mythic rares and rares and the mythic rares will be disproportionally more expensive.
I have been thinking about this a lot. Let us say for the sake of argument that there is this super Uber broken mythic out there that is $100. You have to have it just to play in your local FNM and win.
Broken Mythic rare 1 in 120 = $100
Reg Mythic Rares 1 in 8 = $5-$10
Reg Money rare (Figure 6 in a set) Aprox 1 in 10 = $5-$15
Medium Rare (worth more than $1) figure the other half of the rares 1 in 3= $1
Crap rare = $.20 for sake of argument here
So out of 4 Boxes purchased online for $80 shipped (This is what I get them at all the time)
Invested $320 for 144 packs
Return Aprox.
1 Broken Rare $100
17 Other Mythic Rares Aprox $7.50 each AVG $127.50
15 Money Rares Aprox $10 each $150
48 Decent Rares Aprox $2.50 each $120
63 crap rares $12.60
$510 for a $320 investment
even without the Uber Mythic that is worth $100 and they all avg out to $7.50 each this is still $417 Plus all the uncommons and Commons you can sell So figure a $200 profit margin on this or $50 per BOX
So tell me how this is a bad thing.
If you are earning that kind of profit margin on a box they will sell until supply meets demand, but the thing is the demand for rares will be met and exceeded before the demand for mythics will be met meaning the prices of rares would drop drastically and most of the sets value would be in the mythics rares.
A 40 dollar mythic rare would constitute a must have 4 of that goes in many decks.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled. I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
I don't know what kind of gorilla math Jimmy Olsen is using, but I don't think that quite makes sense. All mythics are worth an avr of $7.50? I don't think that's right. Just because it's mythic doesn't automatically make it worth money. If anything crap mythic = 50¢.
I don't know what kind of gorilla math Jimmy Olsen is using, but I don't think that quite makes sense. All mythics are worth an avr of $7.50? I don't think that's right. Just because it's mythic doesn't automatically make it worth money. If anything crap mythic = 50¢.
$7.50 is an average they are not going to be all crap and some of them will be played your right some will be low priced (I do not believe any will be under a $1) and I do believe a few will be higher priced $20 or more. If mythics are all planeswalkers and legends then they are going to be priced within the $5 - $20 out the door and that is where my avg comes from. You have to figure
17 mythics
1=$20
2=$10
7=$8
5=$5
2=$3
=$127 for 1 of each
or $7.47 each I rounded up to $7.50 to make the math easier.
You need to realize that this will most likely hold true for about the first month until the hype dies down.
Jimmy my problem with your math is that you pulled random numbers out of the air. We don't know what each mythic will be like. That kind of speculation you're making is far too arbitrary.
Just so we don't get confused, the kind of speculation I've been making was that Wizards would make a single chase mythic by mistake and it would cost 100$.
Etllag said that MARO used the same numbers. Is that true?
I can't say, with the proof you seem to require, what Maro used. Because I'm not Maro. But what his article was trying to show is "what does this mean approximately," not "what does this mean exactly."
I can tell you that I am 100% condfident that he based his calculations on the exact same numbers I am using, and rounded off the differences that he felt (as you did) were insignificant. So that he could use small, easy to understand numbers like "approximately 1 in 8" = rather than "15 in 121." You are the one who is insisting that Maro's "approximate" numbers have to carry more weight than those I can, and have, demonstrate to you have to be what are not approximate.
PS: I can't find that print run thread. Can you link it?
Go to the "Rumors" Forum. Click on "search this forum." Go to the "advanced search." Look for "Print Run" in the titles of posts.
Umezawa's Jitte isn't another Skullclamp. The latter made a mockery even of an already crappy Standard format and had to be banned from every format on up; Jitte was annoying to play against in Standard but isn't even a problem in today's Extended.
I was referring to the fact that those were 2 'errors', made in subsequent sets and on similar lines (due to last minute changes in design and insufficient testing). Ironically, even Goyf came about in this manner.
Will there be no mythic 'errors'? I find it hard to believe.
I was referring to the fact that those were 2 'errors', made in subsequent sets and on similar lines (due to last minute changes in design and insufficient testing). Ironically, even Goyf came about in this manner.
Will there be no mythic 'errors'? I find it hard to believe.
Of course there will always be errors, but the idea that they would underdevelop a card put into a separate subset of rarecards is the leap I can't make.
Do you think it's more likely that tghey would promote a "normal" rare to mythic to fill a hole late in development, or that they would create a brand new card from scratch that would fit the mythic criteria? I think in the wake of Tarmogoyf, the likelihood of the latter happening is pretty slim.
I think the success of this change depends entirely on how well wizards differentiates between mythic and rare. Personally, as a casual player, I have a big giant binder full of rares waiting to be used. Some of them are just old obsolete cards from the earlier years that I keep in there for nostalgia, most of them are more recent and I have trouble using them for one of two reasons. Either it's a big splashy bomb of a card that I haven't figured out an interesting use for, or it's a utility card that I don't have enough copies of to make use of. Frankly, I prefer the utility cards since I pretty much only play casual constructed decks. If wizards sorts their cards right with the new rarity, this means fewer cards sitting in my binder gathering dust.
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True. But that set would have to be like Future Sight II, and that Mythic Tarmogoyf II. And the odds of that happening, albeit very real, are minimal. WotC have screwed up before, but they also have learned from their mistakes. They learned the ''be careful with cheap equipment'' lesson after Skullclamp and Umezawa's Jitte (the lesson here was that making the equipment legendary: not a solution) and the only playable one since is Loxodon Warhammer. I'm fairly sure Tarmogoyf follows up on Wild Mongrel's shoes and we'll never see a Green weenie of those levels for a long time, if ever. And those are merely the recent ones: They learned a lot with Cloud of Sprites, Dark Ritual, Artifacts (Mirrodin), Counterspell itself...
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Mythic rarity doesn't make it more likely that they'll screw up and generate a $40-50 card. The chance will exist then just like it existed in the past, and exists now. Discussing future Tarmogoyfs ruining our budgets = valid. Putting that responsability on the Mythic rarity's shoulders = not valid.
Group 1:
This is the worst idea! It will make magic cost more money! It will ruin the game! WoTC is out for greed!
Group 2:
Lets see how the Mythics in Alara shape up and how the card economy shapes up before going over the bridge.
Who is being unreasonable here?
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Thanks for checking out the article!!
With all due respect, the actual mathematical formula (discussed at length in a different thread that I don't want to mention because of all the idiocy I went through to figure it out) is 1 - (119/120)^36 = .26.
Opening 20 boxes nets you a probability of 99.90%
You forget that in a Booster Box, you will probably only have 4 or 5 mythic rares at all!!
The regular rare probabilities? 7 in 8 chance in every booster pack to open a regular rare (cuz 1 in 8 are mythic). There are 53 possible rares & we are looking for 1 broken one: (7/8)*(1/53)=7/424
1-(417/424)^36=.59
6 Boxes? 1-(417/424)^(36*6) =.97
12 Boxes nets you the 99.92%.
You wanna know what the chance of opening a Goyf in a box of Futuresight?
1 of 60 Rares in a box of 36 boosters
1-(59/60)^36=.45
6 Boxes? 1-(59/60)^(36*6)=.97
12 Boxes also nets 99.92%
So, if Goyf if half the price of 1 box (~$40) of 36 boosters, then what would our BROKEN Mythic Rare (BMR) be if it slips through the cracks?
Goyf: 1/24th of the price of 12 boxes (its 99.9% chance).
BMR: 1/24th of the price of 20 boxes (its 99.9% chance) is $66.67 (I'm not kidding. This means that Mythic Rares are EVIL!) LOL. This isn't exact, but it might be a good estimate.
The most probable price would between the 60's & 90's somewhere I guess. I agree with you that it isn't LIKELY to have a $100+ broken mythic rare, but I believe it is possible depending on the prices of other products & how BROKEN the card is. It will definitely be RARE enough!
It is kinda a wait and see type of deal. Hopefully they won't mes up! We really have no idea how much more "valuable" to game play the Mythic Rares will be. And probabilities or not, GAME PLAY is what matters. Not Rarity. That is why the BROKEN Mythic Rare messes EVERYTHING up.
I think I'm going to have to add the above pricing analysis to my article!
You said that Wizards wasn't 100% random, but I've asked and they said that cards are randomized by rarities into the packs and then the packs are randomized into the booster boxes. Believe them or not, but that is what they said to me.
Also, since THEY provide the numbers: 1 in 8 booster packs should be Mythic Rares, even if they "help" the randomization, it should still be 1 in 8. They provided that information with a certain certainty and they will make sure that stays about average. Why would they try to prove themselves wrong one way or the other? LOL!
Thanks again for reading my article. I really appreciate the feedback as I am just getting started!!
Thanks to yakusoku for the Math Mastery in "that other thread" that I don't want to mention!
Pay no attention to views expressed in posts prior to 2013. I didn't know.
You forget that Tarmogoyf was, by *far*, the only truly good card in a fairly bad set. One that wasn't even appreciated in the beginning, mind you, so it was possible to get it on the cheap if you paid attention. Besides the lands (and Nimbus Maze + Grove of the Burnwillows are cheaper than our average dual land) and Venser nothing else really stands out in FS, such that buying a box of Future Sight is only a good deal if we open a Tarmogoyf, and a pretty bad deal if we don't. We can't expect a set to be both incredibly sucky and have a Mythic rare as the only good rare. Yes that can happen but we can't take that for granted when evaluing the new rarity, that's all. It's not a common occurance by any means. Specially with their explanation of what cards will be Mythic and what cards won't (ie good cards will tend to be, in most cases, a regular rare).
Your examples suggest that if they screw up ''Tarmogoyf-like'' again, the broken rare will cost more than Tarmogoyf. Even if that's true, you are forgetting that in every other set that they don't screw up, cards will cost less than they do right now. If they screw up once every 15 sets (for example), we're still paying less for our duals, Mutavaults and Thoughtseizes 14/15 of the time, and paying more for the good rare 1/15 of the time. To me it's crystal clear that we can't put the responsability of a rare skyrocketing in the future in the new rarity's shoulders. The new changes will make the majority of the good cards cost less in the majority of the time. That can't possibly be a bad thing, and that's what I'm trying to put across here. People can't base their opinions about something on corner cases and anomalities like Tarmogoyf. Because, when we do that, everything looks awful.
The thing about 'goyf is, he can't be ignored, unless you like losing. The same will be true of hypothetical mythic 'goyf 2.0... which is inevitable, once mythic rarity is established.
Replies:
"Mythic rarity doesn't make another 'Goyf priced card inevitable any more than printing more cards makes another 'Goyf inevitable." -UrzasSedatives
"Seriously, $80 cards? There's no conceivable way. If even one mythic card hit that price point, everyone and their mother would start buying boxes of Alara to "flip" him." -Charlequin
Being listened to would've beat saying I TOLD YOU SO 3 years later.
'Goyf rotates soon, and when people say 'ignore it' they mean that it is a 'once in the history of magic' fluke. (A green creature being the most expensive card in standard for many many many years, playable in all formats, etc)
Mythic rarity doesn't make another 'Goyf priced card inevitable any more than printing more cards makes another 'Goyf inevitable.
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Actually, I can agree with this in general, although not the specifics of a 50$ plus card.
In Standard, we are seeing a large variety of decks being considered viable and tournament worthy. However, there are cards that are played in several of these decks ('goyf, Mutavault, Thoughtseize are good examples of this), which increases their demand by a lot, which is what is helping to drive their prices really high.
I think that from now on, we will be seeing more cards that are like this. WotC is attempting to adjust for that by putting more of these kinds of cards in uncommon and by lowering the average cost of rare cards, but I think we'll be seeing more staple rare get to that high price range than in the past (ie. Thoughtseize's price is not a fluke, although the other two are).
We're not saying it will ruin magic, we are saying however that it will create really big problems. All it takes is one mistake and that's it...so unless Wizards can foresee every possible mistake that could possibly happen EVER (not possible), then yes...Mythics are perfect. However, since all humans make mistakes, and Wizards is (I think) run by humans...they will eventually make a mistake and print a chase Mythic. Whether it's in Alara or some point down the road...who knows...but it will happen...and we will see 60$+ mythics.
I can see your points.
But, lets take your 15 set example. They don't "screw up" with a BROKEN Mythic Rare in 15 sets, however, in those 15 sets, there will always be the "most powerful", tourney caliber cards of that set. Even if they aren't "broken". The most powerful cards (like a Bitter Blossom) for that set would still get a premium when compared with all the other cards in the set. Goyf may not be as broken if it was in a different set with other "goyf type" cards. What makes it broken isn't ONLY the card, but also how THAT card competes against the others in the format.
Wizards is really going to have to focus on BALANCE as much as possible.
I think we will always have a few $30 - $40 cards because of how MTG has evolved over the last few years and the popularity of the pro tour. Really, $40 x 4 is a small price to pay when you could make $40,000 with it!
I do hope you are right & I understand what you are saying, but statistically speaking, they may be a lot more rare than we think.
Luckily, there will be websites devoted to the sale and distribution of these cards so, they will be easy to find that way... but at what price?
Given all the factors, you'd have to say that a "Goyf Mythic Rare" (that isn't supposed to ever exist) would have to be more expensive than the "Goyf Rare." (Please feel free to exchange the word "Goyf" for "BROKEN".) With all of the above math in my previous post, I think a $60 minimum to $90 max is a pretty good estimation. Really, we just don't know because we haven't seen an example of the Mythic Rare (except for the blank planes walker).
It would do a lot to chill everyone out if Wizards would leak one of those so we can know what types of cards to expect as "Mythic Rares". Then maybe we could shove 4 proxies into a current deck, just to see how they play!!
Overall, I'm looking forward to it. I think it will be really interesting.
100% true! This is like those people saying, "Don't buy gas on Tuesday & gas prices will drop." That is BS. Everyone will fill up on Monday or Wednesday!!
"Ignore Goyf and the price will drop." - Even if that did happen, you have to remember why you want the price to drop?... so you can BUY it! Hypothetical:: EVERYONE ignores Goyf for 3 months (no one plays with it, buys it, clicks on it, etc...). As soon as the "time to ignore it" is up, the price SKY ROCKETS instantly. It is a basic economic fact: The Market knows more than any one individual.
Pay no attention to views expressed in posts prior to 2013. I didn't know.
Broken Mythic rare 1 in 120 = $100
Reg Mythic Rares 1 in 8 = $5-$10
Reg Money rare (Figure 6 in a set) Aprox 1 in 10 = $5-$15
Medium Rare (worth more than $1) figure the other half of the rares 1 in 3= $1
Crap rare = $.20 for sake of argument here
So out of 4 Boxes purchased online for $80 shipped (This is what I get them at all the time)
Invested $320 for 144 packs
Return Aprox.
1 Broken Rare $100
17 Other Mythic Rares Aprox $7.50 each AVG $127.50
15 Money Rares Aprox $10 each $150
48 Decent Rares Aprox $2.50 each $120
63 crap rares $12.60
$510 for a $320 investment
even without the Uber Mythic that is worth $100 and they all avg out to $7.50 each this is still $417 Plus all the uncommons and Commons you can sell So figure a $200 profit margin on this or $50 per BOX
So tell me how this is a bad thing.
With the rule of supply vs demand if we did get a broken mythic the price couldnt go much higher than $50 without people just getting more boxes to sell them driving the cost of the card down as well as the cost of all the other rares due to a flooded market place.
edit: This is proven by the prices of future sight where the value of all the cards add up to the cost of the box
I am going to do a future sight analisis and show the actual cost of pulling a tarmy compared to purchasing them.
edit:
Two boxes of future sight $160 shipped
Number of rares 72
number of tarmys 1.2
number of decent rares 22.8
Avg value of those decent rares $ 75.94
Value of Playset of Uncommon+commons $ 22.00
Value of Tarmy $ 35.00
Total "known" value $ 132.94
Jank Rares (48) $ 12.00
number of foils 24
Aprox Value of foils $ 24.00
This is based on: (all prices are MOTL)
Tarmogoyf $35.00
Magus of the Moon $6.84
Venser, Shaper Savant $5.06
Korlash, Heir to Blackblade $4.79
Pact of Negation $4.57
Horizon Canopy $4.52
River of Tears $4.37
Sliver Legion $3.96
Glittering Wish $3.30
Nimbus Maze $3.24
Graven Cairns (FUT) $2.95
Akroma's Memorial $2.80
Grove of the Burnwillows $2.79
Slaughter Pact $2.77
Tombstalker $2.44
Bridge from Below $2.40
Epochrasite $2.19
Coalition Relic $1.73
Shimian Specter $1.52
Summoner's Pact $1.04
Being the cards worth more than $1
With all due respect, the actual mathematical formula is 1 - (120/121)^36 = .258.
Wizards never said that. They said approximately 1 in 8. Regardless of whether you believe how we know what it will actually be, the one thing it can't be is exactly 1 in 8.
But given the numbers 53 "normal" rares and 15 mythic rares, and the long proven fact that Wizards prints cards on fixed sheets of 11*N cards, it is trivial to conclude that this set will have a 121-card sheet with 1 of each mythic rare and 2 of each "normal" rare. Because (15 + 2*53) = 121. And these values agree with what Rosewater said, about comparing rarities to sets from the past. In the parlance used for early sets, a mythic rare is an R1 and "normal" rare is an R2.
But that formula you misquoted assumes that rares are placed in boxes in a perfectly random way. That is something that we know is not true. If it were, for example, the average number of different rares you would have gotten in one box of Shadowmoore is about 29, and in three boxes it is about 59. Does that sound right, or was it more? If it was, than your numbers need to be similarly increased.
But since we know Wizards doesn't pack perfectly randomly, it will actually be higher than that.
Actually, 2/121. Nearly the same, but why use approximate data that leads to strange numbers like "424," when the actual numbers are known?
And rather than all that work, you could just have noticed that a "broken mythic rare" is just about as easy to get as a "broken Onslaught/Odyssey/Invasion/Masques/Tempest/Mirage/6E/7E/8E/9E rare" (1/110 to 1/121); just as easy as a "Broken Revised/Ice Age/4E/10E rare," and easier than a "Broken 5E rare" (1/132). Since we have lots of experience with rares that are just about as hard to get as a mythic rare, I doubt we will see significantly higher prices than in the past.
They don't mean "uniform probability distribution" random. They mean they took steps so that you can't be sure what is in any given pack until you open it. As I have told you repeatedly, and you have ignored repeatedly, we can look at the distribution of rares from the past and prove that they are not random in the sense you want it to mean. For some previous sets, we were even able to deduce the order of the print run (just search this forum for "print run"). And yes, those same packs said "random" on the side, like they do today.
It's perfectly believeable, as long as you don't assume it means what you want it to.
Edit: besides statistics, one should consider psychology to determine pricing. Mythic rares sound grand and will easily cost more than past core set rares.
I seriously don't understand why so many people don't consider this to be relevant information in determining the hypothetical prices of mythics.
Right. In a true random distribution (that is, each pack has an independent 1/121 or 2/121 chance of having any given rare) you'd see most boxes including duplicate rares. What Wizards does instead is distribute rares from printed sheets in a pseudo-random manner that provides a more even distribution within each given booster box; I imagine one of the results of this is that most boxes will hew pretty closely to the range of 4-5 mythics included, rather than falling throughout a wider range.
Umezawa's Jitte isn't another Skullclamp. The latter made a mockery even of an already crappy Standard format and had to be banned from every format on up; Jitte was annoying to play against in Standard but isn't even a problem in today's Extended.
I really don't think anyone here is suggesting that Wizards won't make more mistakes down the road, but given the duration between really significant development mistakes of this nature (look how long it was between Jitte and Tarmogoyf) I don't think it's really worth worrying about as much as people do.
Mutavault and Bitterblossom are an entirely new kind of mistake -- cards that aren't overpowered at all but which are problematic on the secondary market because they go in too many decks. I think R&D can learn to avoid this now that they've seen it happen, and the greater commonality of rares from Alara forwards should actually help this as these are the rares specifically stated as being inappropriate for mythic status.
1)Mythic rares will make it easier to come by rares.
2)They will make common rares cheaper.
Here is what i see though, magic is trying to bring prices up. Easy as that. You say that Mythic rares make it easier to come by regular rares, well doesn't making the set smaller do that? You say that Mythic rares make rares cheaper, well now you have expensive Mythic rares.
Ok, here is what i see to come out of adding Mythic rares.
Rares will become cheaper, yes, because now all rares will either be land rares, stapple rares, or combo rares. So of course rares will be cheap, these are not the cards ppl usually go for.
Now Mythic rares, they will have all the really good creatures, good spells, and anything else that might make you win a game, and because of their new rarity, you can expect to be paying alot.
You say that there will only be a few Mythic rares in a set, so not all the good cards will be Mythic. Doesn't a set usually only release a few good rares anyways. Well now those few good cards are Mythic rare. Harder to get, and price to match.
When you look at it, this is not going to make magic cheaper in the long run but make it much more expensive if you want to play competitive standard. Why do you think that so many ppl choose not to play standard but extended only, becuase extended is cheaper.
I do beleive that making each set smaller is a good idea, but adding Mythic rare is bad.
What i beleive you will be seeing after the release of Mythic rares.
Mythic Rares - 10 out of 15 competitve play use and highly wanted. Highly priced $20-$40. The remaining 5 unwanted $10-$15.
Rares - 10 out of 45 (if your lucky) competitive play use and highly wanted. Priced $10-$25.
The remaining 35 unwanted $5-$15. (mainly wanted would be dual land or such.)
The way i see it, it will come down to really expensive good cards, and cheap crap cards and land cards.
All in all, making the sets smaller was a good idea and adding Mythic rares is a bad idea.
*Now for side effects :)*
They lose a majority of their standard format players (because it costs to much to play) and they stay with the older, cheaper set.
Those that remain will go broke from trying to buy these Mythic rares or buying boster boxes to get playsets.
(Thx to Craven of Epic Graphics)
I'm not going to argue over a difference of .002.
Pay no attention to views expressed in posts prior to 2013. I didn't know.
Good point. IF it were truly random (which it won't be), that wider range would be: The most significant part of which is that more than half the boxes will have 3 or less. When that fails to happen, we should know (well, some of us already know) that distribution isn't "random" in the mathematical sense.
The point isn't that the difference is small; it is that you don't understand the numbers you are trying to use. Which you have argued with.
Etllag said that MARO used the same numbers. Is that true? Did he use the 1/120 = (1/8*1/15) or did he use the 1/121 (because cards are printed on 11*N sheets?)
Edit: I can't find that print run thread. Can you link it?
I did find a post by Onderzeeboot who created an awesome XL file. That I have attached. But he also uses the 1/120 math.
Pay no attention to views expressed in posts prior to 2013. I didn't know.
That is my point you will create a new price gap between mythic rares and rares and the mythic rares will be disproportionally more expensive.
If you are earning that kind of profit margin on a box they will sell until supply meets demand, but the thing is the demand for rares will be met and exceeded before the demand for mythics will be met meaning the prices of rares would drop drastically and most of the sets value would be in the mythics rares.
Stats About Mythics
-Mythics are on average 40% rarer than pre-mythic rares
(old blocks about 200 rares, Mythic blocks 35+ mythics)
-They are printing more new cards a year not less
(about 665 now vs. 630 in most pre-mythic block)
-To drop the value of a rare by $1 a mythic must go up $2
-In a 3 year time span deck prices doubled.
I am petitioning for the removal of mythic rarity. Sig this to join the cause.
$7.50 is an average they are not going to be all crap and some of them will be played your right some will be low priced (I do not believe any will be under a $1) and I do believe a few will be higher priced $20 or more. If mythics are all planeswalkers and legends then they are going to be priced within the $5 - $20 out the door and that is where my avg comes from. You have to figure
17 mythics
1=$20
2=$10
7=$8
5=$5
2=$3
=$127 for 1 of each
or $7.47 each I rounded up to $7.50 to make the math easier.
You need to realize that this will most likely hold true for about the first month until the hype dies down.
Just so we don't get confused, the kind of speculation I've been making was that Wizards would make a single chase mythic by mistake and it would cost 100$.
I can't say, with the proof you seem to require, what Maro used. Because I'm not Maro. But what his article was trying to show is "what does this mean approximately," not "what does this mean exactly."
I can tell you that I am 100% condfident that he based his calculations on the exact same numbers I am using, and rounded off the differences that he felt (as you did) were insignificant. So that he could use small, easy to understand numbers like "approximately 1 in 8" = rather than "15 in 121." You are the one who is insisting that Maro's "approximate" numbers have to carry more weight than those I can, and have, demonstrate to you have to be what are not approximate.
Go to the "Rumors" Forum. Click on "search this forum." Go to the "advanced search." Look for "Print Run" in the titles of posts.
I was referring to the fact that those were 2 'errors', made in subsequent sets and on similar lines (due to last minute changes in design and insufficient testing). Ironically, even Goyf came about in this manner.
Will there be no mythic 'errors'? I find it hard to believe.
Of course there will always be errors, but the idea that they would underdevelop a card put into a separate subset of rarecards is the leap I can't make.
Do you think it's more likely that tghey would promote a "normal" rare to mythic to fill a hole late in development, or that they would create a brand new card from scratch that would fit the mythic criteria? I think in the wake of Tarmogoyf, the likelihood of the latter happening is pretty slim.
-E