I am Cocktail Sauce, Vanilla town. My flavor is that my flavor is something tasty with seafoods such as shrimp and lobster, but I am pretty much usless for anything else. So if anyone else is going to claim doc, it'll be ikkleste.
In other news, because of Ace's (claimed) dociness, I shall Unvote.
My claim: hmmm well I'm not going to counter claim the doc, I'm vanilla town.
But we've got something here I'm a half bottle of flat soda. This seems to me too close for comfort to kpaca's flat beer. Seems wonky to me, although i guess it's possible? What do you guys think?
I think you made something up to try to get kpaca lynched because he's the lone townie among the four suspects.
Way to make up a reason to get me accused, as most likely the only remaining non power role player. My friends, ikkleste, bilbroxain, and seph are scum.
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Way to make up a reason to get me accused, as most likely the only remaining non power role player. My friends, ikkleste, bilbroxain, and seph are scum.
I call this as pushing attemtion onto someone everyone else.
I just rather not have the scum zoom in with a speedlynch and end the game. While there aren't votes hanging out there, that can't happen. Glancing back over the beginning of the game, I think the town is very, very close to solving this game. I just want us to have some time to do what we need to do.
I'm sorry but I fail to see any proof of a lack of attentiveness or of drifting in and out on my part, but examples would be great. As far as drifting goes you have been the king of that for the most part of the game, I counted three excuses in three days. I understand RL is more important that mafia, but those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
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Ok, guys. Just so everybody is on the same page, we have four confirmed townies and we have four suspects, presumably three of which are scum, and one of those scum is a roleblocker. Here are all the players, along with their claims:
Dead players
hshadowa, Pepperoni Pizza, Vanilla Town - Dusted day 1.
Shino Tenshi, Twinkie, Vanilla Town - Modkilled day 2
kman1474, Chinese Take-Out, Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 2.
ced395, The Lonely Banana, Vanilla Town - Killed night 2.
Highly Probable Town
Sandsoft – Mason (Mustard)
Yare – Mason (Ketchup)
Ecophagy – Cop (Red Wine)
Ace – Doctor (Honey)
Suspects
Sephiroth Owa – Vanilla Townie (Unopened Jar of Mayonnaise)
Kpaca – Vanilla Townie (Half Filled and Open Can of Beer)
Ikkleste – Vanilla Townie (Half Bottle of Flat Soda)
Bilbroxain (Weeping Willow) – Vanilla Townie (Cocktail Sauce)
----------
First, let’s remember at the beginning of day 2 there was the big snafu involving me and Ecophagy where I wanted someone who roleblocked to come out if they blocked scum. That person never spoke up and we now know with certainty that that person did not speak up because that person does not exist; all of the dead townies were vanilla.
Hence, the lack of a kill during Night 1 must have been due to an inattentive scum.
Keep these times in mind. So, who was or was not active during that time?
Ikkleste
Ikkleste went to Croatia on 9-19 and he returned on 9-29. There were no other posts in between that time. Clearly, he wasn’t around to submit the nightkill. Interestingly, however, in his goodbye post, he says he’ll be gone for “a week from today [9-19.]” According to his word, he was going to be back on 9-26, in plenty of time to submit the kill. However, it didn’t happen that way. Instead, he came back ten days later on 9-29, much later than anticipated.
Clearly, beyond any doubt, ikkleste was not around to submit a kill. Consequently, if he were one of the three (which I think is highly probable since a kill was missed), that would mean there are only two other options out there to submit the kill.
Sephiroth Owa
Sephiroth was quite active on 9-25 in the morning, namely at 10:14 AM, 10:55 AM, and 10:58 AM. Then, the day ends at 9:05 PM that day. From that point onward, Sephiroth had only one post, namely a one-liner bump of his trading thread on 9-26 at 5:44 PM. So, yes, he was potentially present to submit the kill. However, this was only a few hours into the three day night time limit. At this point, it is highly likely that the scum had not settled on a kill yet. While it might be argued that Sephiroth Owa was in fact around, I would suggest he was not for two reasons. First, he bumps his trading thread with regularity, usually every day or two. After his bump on 9-26, the thread went unbumped until 9-29 at 6:16 AM. Even better, that bump contained the following:
...I'm sorry? I don't understand 2 things about this.
1) Why is it relevant?
2) Did I lose to MajoraX?
I was baiting him to see if he would say anything about his presence during that time. I actually wasn’t aware of his later defeat to MajoraX at the time I posted it, so I suppose this response is rational. I did intentionally load the question with “when you came back” to see if he would say anything about it (one way or the other), but he didn’t, suggesting he didn’t notice or that he knew that he did in fact “come back” so there wasn’t anything to say. So, this particularly ploy by me didn’t work all that well, but that was the point of that. Regardless, I think he was more likely upset that the scum didn’t get a kill during Night 1.
Overall, I think it’s pretty clear that Sephiroth Owa was not around either. More interestingly, however, he was around enough to make it appear that he might have been around to commit the kill. Perhaps his scum brethren relied upon that in assuming he would submit the kill and did not?
Bilbroxain (Weeping Willow)
Of course, Weeping Willow was replaced by Bilbroxain, but Weeping Willow was still in the game during Night 1. As became a talking point both immediately before and after Night 1, Weeping Willow was really present. Weeping Willow posted concerning the lynch right before Night 1 on 9-25 at 8:11 PM (less than an hour after the hammering vote had been cast and less than an hour before Night 1 began). Weeping Willow reappeared on 9-28 at 11:53AM, just 19 minutes after Day 2 began. She also had twoposts on 9-26, so she was around some in the middle. Consequently, I think she was around to make the nightkill if it needed to be done, particularly since she was present almost instantaneously after Day 2 began. There is the possibility that there was a slight lapse from 9-26 to 9-28, though, as the other two that I previously analyzed couldn’t have covered that period either.
kpaca
Kpaca was around a lot during Night 1. He was present on 9-25 at 1:28 PM and returned to the game on 9-30 at 3:26 PM. So, it would seem that he was around to potentially make the kill.
Therefore, based upon all this, it seems highly probable that ikkleste and Sephiroth Owa are scum. There is just no other rational explanation for the missing kill, short of one person that was present, but just wasn’t thinking, which I suppose is possible.
------------
So, knowing 4 dead townies and 4 confirmed townies, let’s see what a PBPA gives us:
Well it does appear that the voting has been completed (now that the last guy has shown up), and I believe it's safe to assume we can get serious in scum hunting now.
My thoughts exactly if there is one thing I've learned from my previous two games, its don't rush. Kraj hasn't even given us a deadline yet so I'm for taking it slow.
Kpaca gets on sandsoft’s case for promoting getting the game going.
It's possible I suppose. But still not really enough to suspect someone of being scum I guess
Regardless, it is something.
Therefore: unvote if I had a vote... ANNNND FOS: Sandsoft!!!
This was the post that really started the analysis of Sephiroth during Day 1 (which was actually more expansive than I had originally thought after I went back and looked).
Judging by the posts i think we're all spam. And yes sandsoft, people are going to say you pushed the vote by trying to jump out of the random phase, but you didn't do anything scummy to me. I'm going to fos sephirothe owa, for FOSing sandsoft when it should be obvious that there really isn't a case.
Kpaca goes along with the attack on Sephiroth, suggesting he may not be scum.
I'm still learning mate. THings that may seem obvious to you definately aren't to me
I'm not completely sure, *obv*, but it would be nice for him to explain why he keeps using past game bandwagons against him to almost discount himself from being scum here
Actually I think he said what he did about the bandwagons cause I made a joke alluding to it. It's just to me it seems more likely that he really didn't understand that there wasn't a set end to random voting, as it is consistent with his newness in other games. However, hshadowa, you have tipped my interest cause you don't seem to really have good reasons for starting a sandsoft wagon so fos hshadowa as well.
Kpaca also, however, FoSes hshadowa in close proximity to his FoS of Sephiroth.
If this game is anything like the last one, I should imagine that there are 3 scum, a cop, a doctor and a roleblocker neutral. *Hooray for reading ^__^*
@Hshadowa: That does seem a little suspicious to me too...
That's cool. I guess it comes down to people having different things that raise suspicion (OMG, I can't work out how to spell that :o) for them.
Am I allowed to keep 2 people under FOS?
Sephiroth mentions a “neutral roleblocker” for no apparent reason. We know there is a roleblocker in this game.
As much as I am a newb to forum mafia (and I'll admit IRC mafia is incredibly different), but I'd just like to throw up a comment.
Seph Owa seems awfully active, and awfully jumpish, for a neutral townie. This may of course be simply brushed off to newbishness, but am the only one seeing a pattern of jumping on a bandwagon, organising where everyone's at, then quickly jumping offside when a challenge arises?
Maybe it's just me, but it's something to ponder. I just feel I haven't really been chatting much, and this is something I observed. Sorry if it doesn't really make sense.
Right, as for active: I am on Mtgs all the time. Therefore I like to check here to see if there is something to check all of the time That should explain why I've been posting a lot.
As for jumpish: I don't get what you mean. Please explain further.
As for joining bandwagons: I have been accused of both starting AND joining bandwagons in this game. Assuming I'm correct here, won't I have to do one of those things at some point?
Organising where everyone's at: I assume this refers to my post with a list of voters. This was mostly just to show people what the situation was. If it's that scummy looking, I shan't bother again.
Quickly jumping offside: I can't see where I've done that. If I've been challenged, I have answered myself and hopefully people have realised I am telling the truth.
As for being a newbie: that is very much possible, with this being my 2nd ever game. With my first being a complete farce on my part. Hence my enthusiasm this time around.
*Hopefully I've covered everything here XD*
Sephiroth makes a lengthy defense of Ace’s allegations. This seemed like a bit much to me so early.
ok...I'm getting some feelings about some of the people in this game. Let me think on some stuff and analyze some posts. I'll be back either later tonight or tomorrow morning to give my thoughts. Depends on if the 'rents hog the computer or not.
Hmmm, I feel as though people are prodding and trying to make something out of nothing frequently here in the early going.
<post by Ace quoted above attacking Sephiroth Owa>
The only reason this raises a flag to me is it seems like a very sly way to point a finger at somebody. Also he first says I'm a newb at this, but then says that Sephs actions may just be the product of noobishness. If your indeed a newb then how would you be able to say that sephs actions are noobishness, it seems to me you'd still be trying to figure out yourself what is and isn't newb actions.
Oh don't get me wrong I'm not protecting seph cause he's a good guy, or protecting him at all really. I'm just drawing as many conclusions as I can too make the best decision when casting my vote, and sharing my ideas with the rest of the town so hopefully we can get a scum day one. And don't worry about saying no hard feelings, very rarely is it personal in mafia.
It's no problem ace. We have to do it to sniff people out
As for my feelings, I would like to get a prod on the following 3 people:
hshadowa, wedges and shino tenshi.
Play by Play analysis:
hshadowa
His last action was to make 'that' unvote that caused a bit of an uproar, and since then he hasn't come back to defend himself in 3 days. It seems he might have been more inclined to hope that the aftermath would fallout on someone else and pull the suspicion away from himself. (Just my feelings obv.)
wedges 5 Days ago was his last post. He hasn't contributed a great deal to be honest. Lurking = not tech.
Shino Tenshi Again, this time 6 days ago since his last post. Not a great deal contributed. His last post was a bit of Misc discussion with WW and then an unvote from the random phase.
Am I the only one a little suspicious of these 3?
Sephiroth examines the three lurkers, all three of which we know are town.
Yeah, I understand why saying I hope we caught scum comes across as a scum-like action now. It definitely could have gone without saying.
~shrugs~ I guess I was still a little excited about playing. It was a milestone. First game, first post, first lynch, etc. I was hoping to start off my mafia career with a positive first day, but I guess that wasn't the case.
This is the explanation, which I find fairly believable. I think the first lynch in your first game is actually a pretty big deal.
Have read through, and I think the lynch was quick.
kman: post 161 hshadowa expands his claim. Not much, but people may have wanted to unvote at that stage. Instead you vote at 162 and yare hammers at 163 denying anyone the chance to get off the wagon.
Trying to spread the responsibility for the mislynch to everyone who voted (#192 above) doesn't cut it. For all you knew at that stage someone may have been convinced enough to unvote either because they were satisfied with the claim (personally i think this was probably unlikely) or at least enough to unvote to think twice (more likely). But you and Yare ended the day without giving people the option to unvote or further discuss. You may well have been satisied with the flimsyness of the claim, but others may not have been. Or (one or both of) you may have seen the chance for a quick end to the day and a town lynch, were you scum.
Not much of a revision and imho (as your's it seems) not likely to sway anyone, but surely a better course would have been to see if anyone did want to drop off at that point rather than hammering before anyone else even speaks up. Waiting for a few "I'm still happy with my vote"s wouldn't have cost us anything and would have checked we were all on the same page. You denyed the town that chance.
So FoS: Yare and Kman1474
That's it for now. I'm going to do a thorough reread later, and hopefully find some interesting goodies of suspicion. But for now I've a few jobs to do.
Ikkleste decides to attack kman and me after coming back from his vacation.
Right!
I've finally finished making notes and have decided to get a post on the go >.<
Different sections for different analysises on peoples...
Votes hshadowa even though the lynch has been confirmed.
This seems completely pointless and raises suspicions as to why he might feel the need to appear super-conforming to town behaviours.
Sandsoft mentions that they are trying to fit into the crowd, and Ace explains that jumping on a bandwagon is not a bad thing, however, in post 115 he tries to imply jumping on bandwagons is a bad idea (possibly even scummy).
He is then challenged on it a little in following posts, and soon retracts the allegations announcing 'no hard feelings'.
Like Ace, post-lynch voting.
No-one has seen him since.
Not a great deal here I guess.
Votes hshadowa and sets up a 1-vote lynch.
In post 184, kman says he waited for people to investigate the claim before voting, but 10 minutes does not really cut waiting for other people (especially seeing as 2 voters were in the UK and probably asleep at that time.).
In post 178, you completely disregard the fact that ced has HoS'ed you and instead of defending yourself (because a HoS even if you don't know what it is, it must be bad) you just ask what it is. You could have added a little something else in here.
Ced did not vote for him. You gave NO-ONE who had voted for him a chance to reconsider. You gave him 10 minutes which is completely pointless. It just leaves the space open for 2 things.
1) You are scum and set up a 1-point lynch so that an unsuspecting newbie comes in and pops a town member down.
2) You are innocent, jumping on a bandwagon and giving that last mafia member the chance to pop in and kill off the helpless townie.
Completed the lynch following kman's dubious set-up vote.
As I've just mentioned, there are 2 viable possibilities here:
1) Kman is scum and has set you up as an unsuspecting newbie to mislynch hshadowa.
2) Kman has just jumped on the bandwagon and has accidentally set up a 1-point lynch opportunity, which you poach and we are one town member down.
From this post,
I am terribly inclined to believe the latter of the two options there as you do not dismiss the fact that you were left with the lynching vote (which you did NOT have to make at that time.)
That's all I can come up with at the moment. I'll give it another go at reading through later on (maybe tomorrow) and see if I can pick anything else out.
Sephiroth examines four people, all four of which are town.
Well personally I think that Kman acted this same way in Alice Mafia, (in which he was scum), but I find it hard to belive he would act the same way again.
I'm more concerned with the way in which the vote was hammered in so quickly, that seems like something that could be a noob scum move to me, so I'm going to vote Yare.
Sorry for not posting since Sunday; my web privileges were revoked for a couple of days. I'll read over what I missed and give a more detailed post later today. Getting ready for school right now, and my hair is a mess.
A possible explanation for why Weeping Willow might not have been able to submit a scum kill during Night 1. Of course, she was around a lot (and right as Day 2 started) and this period she speaks of was actually after the start of Day 2, but it’s something to consider.
@Ace: thats a typo buddy, it makes completely no sense otherwise. Context Clues....
So you admit to wanting to oust town roles on day one?? How in the name of all that is good would that help the town??? Major FOS: Ecophagy
@Yare: The idea of ousting any sort of power role this early is bad, very very bad. This is a terrible idea and helps the scum immensely, and if you are a roleblocker/doc/whatever and know why there was no kill last night, KEEP IT TO YOURSELF!! The idea of purposefuly ousting them is a terrible idea and comes across as noobiley scummy to me my vote stands.
This is because you are missing a crucial distinction. Ecophagy, during DAY 1, where knowing a power role would do nothing good for the town, at all, asked if people had ideas concerning what roles were out there. I, on DAY 2, after a night with no kill, asked a power role to come forward if he 1) is not the doc and 2) knows who a scum is, because the exchange for the power role (during this coming night) for a scum today is worthwhile. Additionally, the doc, who we presumably have, could protect the person who claimed. Then the scum have to evaluate whether they want to target the ouster or not because they have to judge whether the doc will protect the ouster or not. Obviously, if someone comes forward and calls someone scum when he in fact does not know for sure, that's inviting all kinds of problems. I'm not setting up some trick to get two townies lynched; someone should not come forward if he is anything less than certain. If he is certain, we get a scum right now, without any chance of missing out on this opportunity due to a night kill.
Alternatively, Ecophagy was poking around for power roles at a time when that information would be completely useless to the town. It would, however, have been useful to the scum because they could pick off that person during the night.
Do you understand the distinction now? You may disagree with whether ousting one of the town power roles in order to oust a scum is a good exchange, but that doesn't make me scummy inherently. Asking for power role information during day 1, when it is of no use whatsoever to the town, is scummy.
I disagree good sir. I think you are inherently scummy and you asking for a power role should be obviously a terrible idea. I think ecophagy doing what he did so early was just noobishness, especially since he admitted to it when he could have very easily made a case of "i wasn't trying to get power roles i just wanted to know how mafia worked as a noob." To me thats the distinction, what he said was out of noobishness mostly, what you said is out of scummyness.
Kpaca disagrees with what in my opinion was a rather good explanation.
In all fairness though, it would be nice to hear a claim from both people (at least from Yare) before I make a vote. I don't want to knock him (if I were to vote him) to 1 off a lynch and then have scum come in and lynch him.
Sephiroth wants both of us to claim. I assume this is so we can find some power roles out.
I disagree with anyone voting just to get a roleclaim. The less roles we have out in the open the better. The way you and Yare keep pushing for roleclaims concerns me.
Kpaca doesn’t want roles out in the open, as he emphasized earlier.
My suspicions until his claim were on Yare. While he may have thought he was right in waht he did, i think it was hasty. But we've had that debate. He also seemed to be probing for a roleblocker claim. but then quickly backed down and deflected onto ecophagy (though again i see his logic in both his appeal for the RB coming forward to oust a scum (i don't agree it was the best plan, but i see his logic) and pointing at ecophagy over day 1 fishing). In any case his confirmed claim including his subtle day one hint buryed all of that.
See the thing is even for a confirmed town he's still all over the place and not being the most constructive.
You want her to explain what exactly? You havn't actually levelled an accusation at her (or him i guess it's Bil now) if it's the reasons Sandsoft laid out why didn't you say so? Honestly your posts on the subject look like you're a victim of a posting restriction. But more than that it just looks like you are trying to stir something up.
All of this just looked grotty to me. I can see willow is a bit lurky. But that didn't seem to be vote worthy yet to me. To me most of the eye raising behavior is coming from a confirmed town mason.
Then this morning something occurred to me.
We have a claimed cop. We also apparently have a doc or a roleblocker. We have two masons who can talk at night and confirm each other from day one. In a 12 person game. So of (i'm guessing) 9 initial town members at most (allowing for only three scum and no neutrals) 4 are power roles? Does that not seem quite powerful?
What if there were a neutral? What if Yare was some sort of cult leader? It covers the claim and the MUSTARDSS hidden sign; he knew who he was going to recruit.
I don't buy the mason claim. I don't think a cult is good for the town. vote Yare.
Ikkleste insists that that I’m scum and defends Weeping Willow. This is after my hidden message claim but before my posted night PM evidence
Alright, I did a reread, and the only thing that came out to me were these:
A) I do not like the idea behind Masons in a newb game. They would simply be too powerful. On a standard day three, with one mafia lynched (assuming the we follow basic newb game scum model and have three scum. note: this is only an assumption), and the cop gone, we have townie doc, three vanilla town, two scum, and two masons. Masons come forward, doc comes forward, there are five people left to choose from. Completely unbalanced game.
B) The flavor fits. This is a count in their favor. However, gaming the mod has already turned out poorly for the town this game, and town (should) learn from mistakes.
C) Would mustard or mayonassie like to claim? that would give us three masons.
D) In conclusion, I am lead to believe that Yare and SS_B are scumbuddies. Thus,
E) Vote Yare
F) FoS: Sandsoft Blue
G) If one or the other actually turns out to be town, we have someone else confirmed for townieness. This is beneficial to the town because we want people confirmed so that we narrow down the list of scum-spects
Bilbroxain comes in and goes straight after the masons, without mentioning other major issues at the time (namely, Ecophagy and kman)
You know, I'm kinda still confused as to where I defended Kman. If you guys could point me to certain posts, that would be helpful. As for a scumlist:
Leaning towards as scum:
Yare/SS_B: Yeah... I'm still really not liking the mason claims, for previously stated reasons.
Ace: I really didn't like Ace's "Lynch Seph because he's deadweight" post.
Undecided:
Kpaca: I really don't have a feel for him, but if I had to qualify the people in this category as scum or town, he would be the scummiest on this list.
Ikkleste: I have no handle on him at all. He kind of gives me a townie vibe, but he also gives me a sense of suspicion... but not enough to act on.
Seph: Same as Ik. WANT MOAR POSTS FROM U 2 PLZ. TY!
Kman: I'm leaning him as town, but I'm still not positive.
Town:
Ecophagy: He is an uncountered cop. this holds in his favor. But if he were to come up scum... Ouch. That would hurt
Ced: Down here because of Ecophagy's clearing him. If Ecophagy were to turn up scum, then Ced would go into the red.
Just for the record. I’m not sure what to make of this.
A NoLynch would probably be pretty bad, because the scum would know that they couldn't hit you tonight because the doc will be protecting you, So they would go to work weeding out the doc. In the town, unless I have miscounted, six people have gone unclaimed. Now, assuming that there are three mafia, that leaves three possible people for docness. (I am assuming that my math is not faulty and 6-3 still equals 3), which would give the scum a 33.3333% chance of hitting the doc. However, if we mislynch, that's a 50% of hitting the doc, which would also be disasterous. If we correctly lynch, the scum still have a 33% chance of hitting the doc, and if they hit the doc, you, eco, would be dead the next night, unless the scum would be attempting to draw more attention to you to make you be a target for lynching.
In short, a no lynch would be bad.
Bilbroxain says he wants a lynch instead of no lynch.
Being that I realise that in no way will I ever be able to push a complete case on Yare or SS_B and have it work, I will vote the other person on my scum list.
Vote Ace
Well, he can’t get the masons, why not get another townie instead?
Obviously, you didn't read the post above yours. Those two are still very much in the spotlight.
Drawing from previous arguments, regarding kman and WW/bilbro being partners or linked in some way, this would suggest to me that there is a possibility of one of these groups being mafia.
Obviously I could be wrong, but does anyone else have that feeling?
Many apologies for my lack of activity recently, just had to finish up a paper on the Odyssey (yuck) and take a mid-term for religous philosophy (also yuck). The way I stand is this:
Ace: I think hes trying to lurk his way through this, which is suspicious to me. Also the vote on Seph since a non active dead town isn't bad is a terrible reason to vote. The idea about voting without a scum reason is ridiculous. Any townie dead is a bad one, whether they're being active or not. The fact that you didn't care really bothered me.
Seph: I don't think he's really a lurk as he played Alice mafia like this.
Masons: They still make me a little leery but they're pm's are really convincing. Personally I think one of them should be investigated during the night to put everything at rest.
Kman: Just gives off weird vibes to me. I don't really understand his last post at all.
Right not I'm unvoting, voting Ace. That whole seph situation seems like a newb scum move to me.
Kpaca gets on the Ace bandwagon. Subtly defends Sephiroth.
Can someone lay out point by point (not necessarly post by post) the case on Kman before i move my vote for the lynch? What are the key arguments against him as I see it we have:
Falling for Yare's WW trap (which i still don't quite follow how it indicates he's scum, all he was point out some seriously dubious play).
Weak claim.
Resignation to death.
Bartering for investigation.
Surely the back three of those could be the case for an actual vanilla town?
Am I missing something?
This one threw me because I feel like ikkleste is almost undoubtedly scum. In spite of having many opportunities to jump on the bandwagon, he never does it.
Well, the fact that ace already seemed suspicious doesn't help much. Also, the fact that the mafia has a roleblocker doesn't node well for us, being that the roleblocker will most likely go for Ecophagy at least until the doc dies.
Lo and behold, the roleblocker goes for Ecophagy until the doc dies.
I'll read over Ace a fully as possible later as he seems to be where the ill feeling currently lies. I might even go as far as to PBPA (but no promices).
Well... Either someone is lying, or there are only 2 mafia.
I'd probably go for the former, because only 2 mafia in a game of 12 seems very low.
I am Unopened jar of Mayonnaise. Vanilla Townie.
I will also follow Eco's vote and vote kpaca for now. I'd like to hear if there are any counterclaims form bilbro and ikkle too.
As for eco's question regarding my inactivity on day 2, it was mostly down to lack of time because of RL commitments. I'm back up to speed now as you should have noticed
Ah, and here is where we get into it. Since Sephiroth is undoubtedly scum, there is the question of whether his vote for kpaca is a diversion. Does he pick kpaca hoping he gets lynched and he’ll be scum, showing that we can trust him? Or is he going for the win by going after the only unconfirmed townie?
My claim: hmmm well I'm not going to counter claim the doc, I'm vanilla town.
But we've got something here I'm a half bottle of flat soda. This seems to me too close for comfort to kpaca's flat beer. Seems wonky to me, although i guess it's possible? What do you guys think?
This just seems like an incredibly cheesy tactic. Ikkleste is barning Sephiroth’s strategy. Again, however, the question is whether they want us to go after kpaca or not.
I'm sorry but I fail to see any proof of a lack of attentiveness or of drifting in and out on my part, but examples would be great. As far as drifting goes you have been the king of that for the most part of the game, I counted three excuses in three days. I understand RL is more important that mafia, but those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
Kpaca seems to get rather upset with Sephiroth. Genuine upsetness or good acting?
----------
So, in summary:
Sephiroth Owa is scum.
Ikkleste is scum.
Either kpaca or Bilbroxain is scum.
I think Sephiroth Owa is the best target today because I think he is the most probable scum and is also a good candidate for being the roleblocker since he brought it up so much early on.
Only thing that I'll say for the last time - if you and Sandsoft are mafia, you deserve this win.
That said, you're not, and that really was just a joke.
I would also like to agree on the Seph claim, as his defence was unprecedented when I suggested his scumminess, to the point of playing both the newb card and the 'time away from the game' card.
Considering I die tonight, and assuming we hang Seph, tomorrow will look like:
Sandsoft – Mason (Mustard) Yare – Mason (Ketchup) Ecophagy – Cop (Red Wine)
Kpaca – (Half Filled and Open Can of Beer)
Ikkleste – (Half Bottle of Flat Soda)
Bilbroxain (Weeping Willow) (Cocktail Sauce)
Hopefully Seph (or whoever we lynch) is the roleblocker, allowing Eco to get a sight on one of the other suspects. Town will have to be wary though, as a wrong lynch on Day 4 will lose the town the game (assuming there were 3 mafia).
Sephiroth Owa is scum.
Ikkleste is scum.
Either kpaca or Bilbroxain is scum.
I think Sephiroth Owa is the best target today because I think he is the most probable scum and is also a good candidate for being the roleblocker since he brought it up so much early on.
Quite frankly, I beleive that we have the three scum as Seph, Kpaca, and ikkleste.
Seph: Only a scum would mention the the fact that they are unopened. This would be an excellent attempt at diversion.
Kpaca: Half-filled and open can of beer? Please. Would Joe leave a can of beer half-filled? I don't think so.
Ikkleste: Half-Empty Bottle of Flat soda? That's as close to stale as we are going to get.
I think Seph is the likelyest to go after today. And Yes, I know I spelled that wrong.
i don't like this post, the opening statement is obvious (since you are clearly not going to call yourself), and are just emphasizung attention away form yourself.
You aregument that they are unopened seems weak. It may well simply be in the role name
We aren't looking for stale food. We are looking for rotten food. An important distinction.
Bilborxains post is terrible and is a last ditch effort to save himself through the idea of gaming the mod, which we failed at earlier. I think pizza is obviously a food that easily spoils, but Kraj doesn't and it messed us up once before.
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Bilborxains post is terrible and is a last ditch effort to save himself through the idea of gaming the mod, which we failed at earlier. I think pizza is obviously a food that easily spoils, but Kraj doesn't and it messed us up once before.
Are you kidding? Pizza takes forever to spoil. I once had a pizza in the fridge for three months before I ate it, and it was still good. A little cold, but still good.
Whats important is not how long we would feel comfortable eating a refridgerated pizza, but how gaming the mod is a fruitless "oh no the puns are back!" endeavor.
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Who is this we you speak of? What is clear to me is that "we" as in the town will vote out one of "you" as in you three, and then during the night I would guess that we will lose the doc who will save ecophagy, who will get a clear shot on one of you other three. And by that point the town win will be a lock. The only way I can see this failing is either scenario B or C from my previous post.
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Who is this we you speak of? What is clear to me is that "we" as in the town will vote out one of "you" as in you three, and then during the night I would guess that we will lose the doc who will save ecophagy, who will get a clear shot on one of you other three. And by that point the town win will be a lock. The only way I can see this failing is either scenario B or C from my previous post.
And of course, lynching the actual remaining townie because the scum told us to couldn't possibly occur, and lose us the game?
however, from the above interchange, it looks like only one of kpaca and Bilbroxian are scum (as, indeed Yare said before, I believe)
Sorry for lack of recnet postings, RL continues to kick me in the balls.
In my opinion, it's obvious who the three scum are. However, since the rest of you can't tell, I have a proposition to make.
We lynch the ones that we all agree on as scum (these would be Ik and Seph). We spend day three and day four doing this. On night three and night four we lose Ace and Eco. As much as I hate to say it, but now that we have everything out in the open, it is unavoidable. (unless, of course, one of the masons happens to also be a vig) Then, on day five, you all decide between Kpaca and myself.
In my opinion, it's obvious who the three scum are. However, since the rest of you can't tell, I have a proposition to make.
Again, not helpful. It is only obvious to you because you either know who is scum by being one, or by actually being the last townie.
It is clearly not obvious to us. You have more information then we do.
I have completed my final re-reading of the game and have made my final determination as to who the three scum are. As I’ve already stated, Sephiroth Owa and ikkleste are scum. So the question is: kpaca or Bilbroxain (Weeping Willow)?
vote: weeping willow for telling us about his/her? thong wedgies.
Kpaca’s second random vote is for Weeping Willow, the other scum candidate. Would a scum really vote for his two scum buddies right out of the gate? I just find this highly unlikely. Obviously, this isn’t enough to tilt things one way or the other, but it’s interesting to note.
Judging by the posts i think we're all spam. And yes sandsoft, people are going to say you pushed the vote by trying to jump out of the random phase, but you didn't do anything scummy to me. I'm going to fos sephirothe owa, for FOSing sandsoft when it should be obvious that there really isn't a case.
Kpaca pushes Sephiroth harder in the early going. Maybe he’s trying to create separation. Again, however, I just don’t see this likely this early.
Actually I think he said what he did about the bandwagons cause I made a joke alluding to it. It's just to me it seems more likely that he really didn't understand that there wasn't a set end to random voting, as it is consistent with his newness in other games. However, hshadowa, you have tipped my interest cause you don't seem to really have good reasons for starting a sandsoft wagon so fos hshadowa as well.
Though kpaca attacked Sephiroth Owa early on, he also attacked hshadowa early on as well. So, on the one hand he attacked a scum, but on the other it was tempered by another FoS shortly thereafter.
ok...I'm getting some feelings about some of the people in this game. Let me think on some stuff and analyze some posts. I'll be back either later tonight or tomorrow morning to give my thoughts. Depends on if the 'rents hog the computer or not.
“I’m getting some feelings about some of the people in this game.”? Really? I know Weeping Willow is new, so I can see this as just an off hand comment. On the other hand, I see it as more likely that it was a comment meant to show presence and concern about the status of the game without actually saying anything.
Oh don't get me wrong I'm not protecting seph cause he's a good guy, or protecting him at all really. I'm just drawing as many conclusions as I can too make the best decision when casting my vote, and sharing my ideas with the rest of the town so hopefully we can get a scum day one. And don't worry about saying no hard feelings, very rarely is it personal in mafia.
Kpaca makes it clear he is not defending Sephiroth Owa. A little tight about being connected to Sephiroth perhaps?
You agree with Shino that you haven't done anything that can make you noted as scummy. I can live with that, but then you say...
Emphasis mine.
So...in the same post you say you haven't done anything that can be construed as scummy, you say that you would vote for yourself if you were someone else?
Vote: hshadowa You might as well claim when you try to explain the discrepancies in your posts. I believe you are at -2 right now.
And here is Weeping Willow voting for hshadowa. The problem? Hshadowa never posted between Weeping Willow asking for an explanation of the discrepancy and Weeping Willow’s vote.
That's not even counting the OMGUS vote. It might have been a joke, which I'd understand if we were still in the random stage.
Weeping willow posted this post after the previous post within a minute or two. Why is she so anxious to post...and then add a little bit more as an afterthought? Is she overly concerned about appearing to be scum?
Your post just reeks of a scum giving up the game. Defend yourself.
Again, this different set of two posts were within a minute of each other. The second post adds nothing. Why do this? Because she’s worried about her appearance.
I didn't think of it like that. I wanted to post what was on my mind which was really, "I really hope we didn't **** up." I figured people would get upset about it thinking it was too vulgar of phrasing, so I rephrased it.
Basically, what you're saying is that even if you're town, you should stay away from making statements like that, since statements like that are viewed as scummy? I'm not trying any kind of double-speak, I am just honestly curious.
Looking back, you are most probably correct on this. I hadn't thought about it like that. I know this for next time now, thank you.
I just meant that if he didn't fight, that people would lynch him on principle. If you read any game where someone completely gives up like that, whether they're town or scum, they get lynched. It just makes the game less fun when people give up right away without even trying to defend themselves.
I wasn't attempting to justify the lynch at all when I said that. I was simply trying to get you to understand why I said that I hoped we caught scum.
This post, with the quotes Weeping Willow is responding to, is here. You might want to go back and look at it in context...
Done that? Ok, I’m not really sure how I feel about Weeping Willow’s attempts to defend her cute “I hope we caught scum” comment at the end of Day 1. Personally, it just comes off as a little scummish. I can’t really say way. Perhaps it’s just too deferential.
I am not going to vote one way or the other at this moment, but I would like Ecophagy to explain why him fishing for roles is not scummy, but he thinks that Yare fishing for roles is scummy?
@Sandsoft. Definitely east coast.
Weeping Willow continues to refuse to take a position.
Well...that was certainly unexpected. Just out of curiosity, does anyone know why the role is called a mason?
I was basically coming back to give my thoughts on Yare saying about a roleblocker coming out if they prevented a mafia kill last night. I think it would be a good idea if we had killed scum yesterday because in that scenario, trading one-for-one would give the mafia one member left. (This is assuming there are 3 scum members) However, I don't think trading the roleblocker, if we do in fact have one, for a mafia member is worth it quite yet. If the roleblocker got lucky, he needs to keep blocking and keep his trap shut unless he feels he is close to being lynched or thinks he may die that night.
As for Ecophogy, I can see how some of his statements can be viewed as scummy, but overall, he doesn't really strike me as scum. I think we're barking up the wrong tree again, but that's just my gut feeling.
Weeping Willow tries to provide a rationale for the roleblocker to come out, but again produces nothing of substance in terms of the actual game.
@Yare: and why don't you want to share your reasons??? I don't know your agenda but to me it comes across as counter-townie. I won't go so far as too say scummy, but you definetly don't seem to want to cooperate with others in the town.
This is just one of many posts that kpaca made attacking me and my refusal to talk during Day 2 when I was baiting kman. I’m just not really sure why he was so aggressive. Then again, I don’t think a scum would be this aggressive...
My suspicions until his claim were on Yare. While he may have thought he was right in waht he did, i think it was hasty. But we've had that debate. He also seemed to be probing for a roleblocker claim. but then quickly backed down and deflected onto ecophagy (though again i see his logic in both his appeal for the RB coming forward to oust a scum (i don't agree it was the best plan, but i see his logic) and pointing at ecophagy over day 1 fishing). In any case his confirmed claim including his subtle day one hint buryed all of that.
See the thing is even for a confirmed town he's still all over the place and not being the most constructive.
<various quotes by Yare>
You want her to explain what exactly? You havn't actually levelled an accusation at her (or him i guess it's Bil now) if it's the reasons Sandsoft laid out why didn't you say so? Honestly your posts on the subject look like you're a victim of a posting restriction. But more than that it just looks like you are trying to stir something up.
All of this just looked grotty to me. I can see willow is a bit lurky. But that didn't seem to be vote worthy yet to me. To me most of the eye raising behavior is coming from a confirmed town mason.
Then this morning something occurred to me.
We have a claimed cop. We also apparently have a doc or a roleblocker. We have two masons who can talk at night and confirm each other from day one. In a 12 person game. So of (i'm guessing) 9 initial town members at most (allowing for only three scum and no neutrals) 4 are power roles? Does that not seem quite powerful?
What if there were a neutral? What if Yare was some sort of cult leader? It covers the claim and the MUSTARDSS hidden sign; he knew who he was going to recruit.
I don't buy the mason claim. I don't think a cult is good for the town. vote Yare.
Oh yeah, there are scum that are this aggressive. In reading this post again, it just occurred to me how ridiculous this cult conclusion in. A cult? Really? Really? I mean, come on. After all that analysis, this is the conclusion that was reached? This is just a completely irrational play.
@sandsoft: It should be obvious that I don't want any reasons from you since I'm not questioning you, I would like to either get the reasons Yare is hiding, or get a good reason for him to hide them
@ikkleste: Glad to see someone finally agrees with me that the mason thing seems like an elaborate ploy.
I still find it highly unlikely for masons in a newb game, since that would give more people a ability than not. I think the mafia knows this two so worked out this plan for if one of them game under pressure, since they knew there would be no one to counterclaim this.
Kpaca agrees with ikkleste, but doesn’t bite on the cult thing (mainly because it’s absurd). Kpaca is still intent on getting the masons.
Weeping Willow asked to be replaced, and Bilbroxain stepped up to fill his shoes.
Vote count will come tomorrow.
Of course, Weeping Willow was replaced. (Note that this post may not be in the sequentially right place relative to the other posts I have quoted here. It’s somewhere in here though.) Note that Weeping Willow asked to be replaced; she didn’t leave due to inactivity. This will be important later.
Alright, I did a reread, and the only thing that came out to me were these:
A) I do not like the idea behind Masons in a newb game. They would simply be too powerful. On a standard day three, with one mafia lynched (assuming the we follow basic newb game scum model and have three scum. note: this is only an assumption), and the cop gone, we have townie doc, three vanilla town, two scum, and two masons. Masons come forward, doc comes forward, there are five people left to choose from. Completely unbalanced game.
B) The flavor fits. This is a count in their favor. However, gaming the mod has already turned out poorly for the town this game, and town (should) learn from mistakes.
C) Would mustard or mayonassie like to claim? that would give us three masons.
D) In conclusion, I am lead to believe that Yare and SS_B are scumbuddies. Thus,
E) Vote Yare
F) FoS: Sandsoft Blue
G) If one or the other actually turns out to be town, we have someone else confirmed for townieness. This is beneficial to the town because we want people confirmed so that we narrow down the list of scum-spects
This post really got me. Bilbroxain jumps in and just barns kpaca and ikkleste’s anti-mason wagon. Knowing full well that the masons are actually masons, he tries to justify the ultimate outcome (“If one of the other actually turns out to be town...”), namely finding out that I am town. Even better, he actually mentions the role of “mayonnaise,” which we now know is Sephiroth Owa. Coincidence? Possibly.
On eco-cop: I find that claim to be beleiveable, with nothing to discredit it. Were there better targets? Quite possibly. Who would those better targets be? Kman, kpaca, weeping_willow, to name a few. (Being that some of her posts from day one were quite scummy. Whatever convinced her to make those posts?)
On SS_B overreacting: Yes, he did. But then that's what I had in mind when I was appling pressure. Getting scum to overreact is a good way to catch them. And if we also get Yare in the process of being scum, good job for us.
On Weeping_Willow's inactiveness: Duh. Why do you think I got replaced in?
On me defending Kman: Where'd I do that? There's no solid case on him anyways, he just seems to be flowing along. And apparently, getting lynched for it. My fellow foods, I do not beleive Kman to be scum.
Vote stands
Ah ha. Bilbroxain says that Weeping Willow left due to inactiveness. As Kraj stated earlier, her leaving had nothing to do with inactivity; she asked to leave. Perhaps she wouldn’t have time to play; this is certainly possible. However, this defense is unacceptable in light of what we’ve already seen.
Also of note is that Bilbroxain defends kman, who we know is town.
As promised here is my wall o'text.
The reason it didn't appear last night is that i actually fell asleep typing it... Oops. I've been working at all through the day at work to deliver this to you guys, lol. Oops again.
That at least is why i was quiet last night/today: I fell asleep.
Okay so here it is:
Yare #324
(I'll avoid quoting the whole epic post and pick a couple of points you raised against me to respond to)
Your FOS on me for misrepresenting you:
This isn't what i intended. at that point I was attempting a "story so far" summary on the topic to put the rest of my post in context. I see that you hadn't backed down on the push for the RB to step forward, it had simply been pushed to the back burner while you followed other lines.
My suspicions over your claim:
I disagree that this is WIFOM. I felt that something didn't add up and was attempting to think of an explanation. I wasn't second guessing anything. Your behaviour that still didn't add up at that point (hasty day 1 end, fishing for RB claim, deflection onto Eco when picked up on it).
All that argument was saying was that there were logical and reasonable explanations (if a little unexpected) on how and why you could pull off the claim were you on the shady side (that it was a cult shady side rather than a mafia shady side).
Kman trapped in WW accusation:
I'm not following this. You make an obviously and intentional dubious argument (or actually no argument). Someone picks you up on it. Therefore they are scum?
So is the town supposed to just ignore it when people fire acusations based on nothing? You say that town shouldn't be paying attention to your reasonless voting. Why on earth not?
Yet you seem to have built a whole case on this, pushed him to a (flimsy) claim, which is all you have to strengthen your case. I really feel like you are just piling pressure on someone while you have a bit of faith from the people based on your claim.
To seph: Why are you in on this wagon? Am i missing something? (Emphasis mine –Yare)
Sandsoft:
I'm really questioning the zeal with which you are following your leads. If it weren't for your claim I'd say it looks really scummy. You are really relying on the fact that people are disagreeing with you and that your actions can't be those of a Mafia. As Kpaca said "your[sic] scum because your going against the masons". You countered this with "we can't possibly be scum because it'd be stupid for us to come forward with a claim like like this if we were" (paraphrase). Which it would (and you can WIFOM that all day). But as I've said just because you ain't mafia doesn't mean you are town. And just because someone disagrees with you (even if you were confirmed town) doesn't make them scum.
Your arguement against Bil comes down to this. Simply that he doesn't buy your claim. I do think his vote is a little flimsy (as he's presented it at least, it's based entirely on him not believing your claim). But then you vote back at him, it either looks like OMGUS or "you don't believe our claim so you must be scum". Neither adds up to a convincing argument. (Also emphasis mine –Yare)
It kinda goes with my feelings on Yare aswell fos sandsoft as you've said your fates are linked.
Kmans claim:
I'm not sure how it got to the point that he was asked to claim in the first place, and so I'm not sure what to make of this. I guess someone has to be vanilla town, I'm still not sure what someone in that position is supposed to do if pushed to claim? That said, if a Vanilla claim stuck easily it'd be an easy claim for the scum.
I'm not going to go onto this wagon as i still can't follow the case that drove him to claim, which i'd rather judge than some claim WIFOM.
Finally, back to Yare:
Your night conversation is pretty good stuff. It is making me rethink your claim. But i think you are smart enough to fabricate that out of what conversation you did have.
tl;dr
To clarify:
You and Sand are now linked. So there is going to be some degree of judging you together.
I'm trying to judge on your behavior rather than your claim, and between you and sand theres enough there to raise my interest.
All you've got to clear you is your claim. Which could be fabricated, the enight discussion part of your claim is good but i beleive you are smart enough to create that.
So I'm not voting you because of your claim (that would be WIFOM) but in spite of it.
I'm voting you because:
Hasty lynch. (a small matter I'd have disregarded by now if it wasn't for other things keeping my interest)
Push for RB reveal. (i see the logic here but disagree this is the smartest plan, revealing a power role helps the scum)
Deflection on to Ecophagy as soon as pressure was put onto you.
The trap vote on WW. I just do not get how this works. You may have linked the two or he could just as easily actually be calling you out for random voting.
Your building of a case on Kman based on the trap. THe phrase "rolling along" that someone used fits well. But you're the one rolling it.
So my vote remains.
In spite of the overwhelming case in favor of the masons being town, ikkleste insists that I am scum. Note that he is barning Bilbroxain (This is important later). He also makes a very short post concerning Sephiroth Owa, yet makes lengthy posts about other players.
I still beleive Yare and SS_B to be scum, but there seems to be no foreseeable meathod with which to persuade my fellow townsmen at the current time. With that said, I once again:
a) Feel that Ecophagy is probably the doc (given the absence of counterclaims)
b) feel that Kman is town
c) wonder how the case on kman got started (if I could get a decent explanation for this, it would be helpful)
d) Really, really, hope that Shino is not the doc, being that he is soon to be modkilled.
e) am supportive of the more Seph and Ik posts movement
f) am going to do a complete reread on ced, ace, ik, seph, kpaca, and whoever else so that I can get a better feel for them
Bilbroxain doesn’t want to do the whole kman thing, again. This is a consistent story.
a) reading is tech. Also, as a forewarning, bare with me when I post things that don't really make sense. I have been running on 2-3 hours of sleep a night for coming up on a month now. Whenever I mix things up, keep this in mind. When winter break start (20th of december) I will probably be having a three day sleeping marathon.
b) This is mainly gut instinct. Kman just doesn't seem like scum to me. I am unsure why, but he just doesn't strike me as scum.
c) If this is a good reason for lynching, there is something wrong. Scum or more likly to defend themselves because their team is just so small in compairison to the town.
d) agreed heavily. Anyone attemped to e-mail him? that might get him, assuming the e-mail doesn't get tossed into the spam bin.
e) a short post should be sufficient.
f) don't take this to mean that you're out of the eyes of suspicion in mine eyes.
b) I never conciously defended Kman. I simply looked at who I thought seemed scummiest, and attacked them.
c) see above when I addressed the same issue with sandsoft. d) Was that a claim? Please, for the love of God, tell me that you did not just claim. I think you claimed. You idiot. (Emphasis mine –Yare)
e) true, but I have been noticing quite a bit of ace-postings.
f) I just don't have a feel for you. I'm not suspicious of you, I don't have a handle on your playstyle.
Bilbroxain was reacting to a post by ced where he says he doesn’t think that some player is the doc. Bilbroxain tries to turn it into a “disaster” because ced may have claimed to be the doc. Why would Bilbroxain want to point this out? Because he wanted to get ced to confirm what he suspected. This way the scum can kill the doc.
1) I was hoping that you weren't claiming. Hence, why I asked.
2) Lurking is more a sign of lazyness than scumminess. I'm sorry if you disagree, but that's how I feel.
He defends his decision to ask about the doc and then defends lurking. Lo and behold, the two biggest lurkers at this point in the game are Sephiroth Owa and ikkleste (and Shino, admittedly).
You know, I'm kinda still confused as to where I defended Kman. If you guys could point me to certain posts, that would be helpful. As for a scumlist:
Leaning towards as scum:
Yare/SS_B: Yeah... I'm still really not liking the mason claims, for previously stated reasons.
Ace: I really didn't like Ace's "Lynch Seph because he's deadweight" post.
Undecided:
Kpaca: I really don't have a feel for him, but if I had to qualify the people in this category as scum or town, he would be the scummiest on this list.
Ikkleste: I have no handle on him at all. He kind of gives me a townie vibe, but he also gives me a sense of suspicion... but not enough to act on.
Seph: Same as Ik. WANT MOAR POSTS FROM U 2 PLZ. TY!
Kman: I'm leaning him as town, but I'm still not positive.
Town:
Ecophagy: He is an uncountered cop. this holds in his favor. But if he were to come up scum... Ouch. That would hurt
Ced: Down here because of Ecophagy's clearing him. If Ecophagy were to turn up scum, then Ced would go into the red.
Bilbroxain puts down his scum list. Kpaca is high on the list. Bilbroxain emphasizes how he wants to see more from the lurkers, but still has very little to say about them. He also puts them in the middle of his list so as to draw attention away from them.
A NoLynch would probably be pretty bad, because the scum would know that they couldn't hit you tonight because the doc will be protecting you, So they would go to work weeding out the doc. In the town, unless I have miscounted, six people have gone unclaimed. Now, assuming that there are three mafia, that leaves three possible people for docness. (I am assuming that my math is not faulty and 6-3 still equals 3), which would give the scum a 33.3333% chance of hitting the doc. However, if we mislynch, that's a 50% of hitting the doc, which would also be disasterous. If we correctly lynch, the scum still have a 33% chance of hitting the doc, and if they hit the doc, you, eco, would be dead the next night, unless the scum would be attempting to draw more attention to you to make you be a target for lynching.
In short, a no lynch would be bad.
Bilbroxain reinforces how good a lynch would be. We now know that all possible candidates at this point were town.
Being that I realise that in no way will I ever be able to push a complete case on Yare or SS_B and have it work, I will vote the other person on my scum list.
Vote Ace
Bilbroxain gives up on the masons and moves on to another town target.
Many apologies for my lack of activity recently, just had to finish up a paper on the Odyssey (yuck) and take a mid-term for religous philosophy (also yuck). The way I stand is this:
Ace: I think hes trying to lurk his way through this, which is suspicious to me. Also the vote on Seph since a non active dead town isn't bad is a terrible reason to vote. The idea about voting without a scum reason is ridiculous. Any townie dead is a bad one, whether they're being active or not. The fact that you didn't care really bothered me.
Seph: I don't think he's really a lurk as he played Alice mafia like this.
Masons: They still make me a little leery but they're pm's are really convincing. Personally I think one of them should be investigated during the night to put everything at rest.
Kman: Just gives off weird vibes to me. I don't really understand his last post at all.
Right not I'm unvoting, voting Ace. That whole seph situation seems like a newb scum move to me.
Kpaca barns the Ace train. He also subtly defends Sephiroth Owa, but doesn’t really make a statement one way or the other. He also says that the masons should be investigated, which to me seems like a bad play. Not necessarily a scummy play, just a bad play strategically.
This is heavy godfather play. Now granted, people will probably say that this is me barning Yare (being that he already touched on this), but this is the first time that I have checked the thread since my last post and I would also like to say this, and elaborate on my position. People may also say that me pointing this out may look scummy because I don't like the idea of masons in a newb game, and godfathers can throw the game out of balance as well. However, if we lynch kman and discover that he is the godfather, we can say that there may be masons because the masons and the godfather could balance the teams out. So, we could validate the masons and put the town ahead at the same time. As such, I will Unvote, Vote Kman1474.
This is after kman asked to be investigated. Bilbroxain asserts how this is godfather play and then suddenly has a paradigm shift and decides that kman should go. He justifies it on a “game balance” stance in that if we find out he is the godfather, that will somehow “prove” that the masons are town. Riiiight.
I'm really not a fan of your defeatist attitude. In alice mafia you played this defeatist bs, and turned out to be mafia. unvote, vote kman. I don't understand why you refuse to effectiviley defend yourself.
Kpaca wants to take kman down for his defeatist posting.
Can someone lay out point by point (not necessarly post by post) the case on Kman before i move my vote for the lynch? What are the key arguments against him as I see it we have:
Falling for Yare's WW trap (which i still don't quite follow how it indicates he's scum, all he was point out some seriously dubious play).
Weak claim.
Resignation to death.
Bartering for investigation.
Surely the back three of those could be the case for an actual vanilla town?
Am I missing something?
I figured out why ikkleste didn’t put the hammering vote here. It’s because of what all happened at the end of Day 1 and at the beginning of Day 2. Sephiroth Owa having just cast the -1 vote for Kman, ikkleste didn’t want to be the scum buddy who followed Sephiroth because it would look like a quick lynch and that could have all kinds of bad implications for the scum. This is why ikkleste backs off here.
Bilbroxain tries to get that last vote against kman.
--------Beginning of Day 3---------
Now, recall what I said before about how whether I thought that the scum were gaming us or whether they were going straight for the win. After thinking about this for a while without doing a reread, I figured that Occam’s Razor probably applies here in that the scum has the most incentive to go after the last townie right now. The game going longer with them supporting the lynching of a scum would only be the flashy “win more” play instead of the smart play. The optimal play is to win right now. I also think that when I was reading Day 3, I was reading it in the context of my mega-post having already been posted (exposing Sephiroth Owa and ikkleste) when in fact I had not. Consequently, when I look back now, the answer seems obvious, at least in my opinion.
So does that mean that because ace thought he would be investigated and therefore outed as Mafia, he threw a Roleblock at you so that you couldn't confirm it?
Ok, Sephiroth sets up the train against Ace, one of the two unconfirmed townies (at that point; Ace hadn’t claimed yet). It’s important to note something else here. It was ced who died during the night. Why? Well, let’s think about it. The scum can choose from 3 unconfirmed townies (1 of which is presumably the doc), 1 of the 2 masons (both of whom certainly are not the doc), the confirmed cop (Ecophagy) or ced, who is confirmed town (and has not claimed a role). Since the masons don’t have a power role beyond being masons (and possibly might have some suspicion left), then you obviously have to lynch ced, as there is a positive probability that he is the doc. Otherwise, if you lynch one of the unconfirmed choices, then you take away one of your biggest assets (as should be incredibly evident by now): unconfirmed town. This is why they chose ced. You would think that they would pick Ecophagy, but they knew they could block him. I suppose they could have killed Ecophagy and blocked someone else randomly, but that wouldn’t have revealed if they hit the doc. Hence, this was the only play.
So, with that setup, knowing that the scum will win if they get this lynch, all they have to do is get one of the unconfirmed town lynched. They pick the most vulnerable target from Day 2 (Ace) and go for the gold. No tricks here (this is important shortly) so they go after him.
Well, the fact that ace already seemed suspicious doesn't help much. Also, the fact that the mafia has a roleblocker doesn't node well for us, being that the roleblocker will most likely go for Ecophagy at least until the doc dies.
I'll read over Ace a fully as possible later as he seems to be where the ill feeling currently lies. I might even go as far as to PBPA (but no promices).
My thoughts leave 3 of those 5 in my mind as possible scum.
Ace
Bilbroxain
kpaca
Obviously, myself being one of them, and ikkleste who really throws a town vibe at me.
Ace and Bilbroxain have obviously been brought up before *with my stronger feelings leaning towards ace*, but kpaca hasn't really gotten involved a great deal. Sure he was involved in the key moments, but other than that, he has kind of struck me as a non-entity.
This isn't to say that he has been lurking, there's just something which I can't put my finger on that makes me uneasy about him and very suspicious of him.
Sephiroth makes his preferences clearly known. He tried to throw Bilbroxain in the middle without doing it too much. He also mentions kpaca, but there is “something he can’t put his finger on.” Note: Ace has not claimed yet, so the scum do not have incentive to throw suspicion on a scum buddy yet.
Barring the possibility that the masons hoodwinked everyone, which at this point seems only about .0001375% likely to happen, these three people are scum.
Ikkleste posts just barely enough to seem townish and keep himself out of the limelight. Too me he offers no major content and is doing a good job of lurking without actually telegraphing how much he's lurking.
Bilbroxain to me says things that he trys to frame as town, but to me most of his actions have an underlying scum tone.
Ace- if he's not scum I'll eat my shoe.
Kpaca also barns the Ace train and picks out the two remaining unconfirmed townies as targets.
I don't know if I agree with this so much to be honest. He was away for a few days early on (most of day 1 in fact on holiday), but he has been about posting some decent things which have been debated.
Bilbroxain does seem to be a little iffy to me too. I don't know if it is scummy or newbieish, but he might be worth an investigation if we manage to lynch the roleblocker today, because we've pretty much established that eco isn't going to be getting anyone any time soon
<post saying Ace is scum>
I must say, that this, I do agree with. He has put out some hideous posts which have made myself (and others) question his townieness. The main one that springs to mind *probably because it concerns me XD* was when he said I was dead-weight, and lynching me would be beneficial for the town, when it blatantly would not be.
The more townies you lose in a game of mafia, the lower the town's chances of winning are! Even if he is dead-weight, a simple cop investigation would sort that out.
Who do other people have in their top 3?
Sephiroth suggest that Bilbroxain might be worth an investigation (Although, we’ve seen that emphasis, be it asterisks or italics, very recently on Day 3, again, in a discussion where Bilbroxain was involved). He wants to throw something that way, but not too much.
Well... Either someone is lying, or there are only 2 mafia.
I'd probably go for the former, because only 2 mafia in a game of 12 seems very low.
I am Unopened jar of Mayonnaise. Vanilla Townie.
I will also follow Eco's vote and vote kpaca for now. I'd like to hear if there are any counterclaims form bilbro and ikkle too.
As for eco's question regarding my inactivity on day 2, it was mostly down to lack of time because of RL commitments. I'm back up to speed now as you should have noticed
The scum, distraught over the fact that they picked wrong with Ace and he happened to be the doctor (meaning the town won’t lynch him), go after their only other reasonable choice. In spite of his suspicion of Bilbroxain earlier, Sephiroth goes after kpaca – the only remaining way for the town to win.
My claim: hmmm well I'm not going to counter claim the doc, I'm vanilla town.
But we've got something here I'm a half bottle of flat soda. This seems to me too close for comfort to kpaca's flat beer. Seems wonky to me, although i guess it's possible? What do you guys think?
Ikkleste immediately barns the attack on kpaca by coming up with this ludicrous reason for going after kpaca, namely that they have similar claims. While I initially thought this play was clever, I think it was just a cheap trick to try to get us to go after kpaca that just did not come off very well. This, for me, makes it pretty clear that kpaca is the last town.
I would recommend voting for them in that order. Though I am pretty sure I’m right, this order of voting, I think, provides the most advantage for the town in that it gives us an opportunity to get sure scum out of the way first, and therefore possibly get the roleblocker and/or godfather out of the way if they’re out there.
Regarding the possibility of a trick on the part of the scum in going after kpaca after going after Ace, I find it highly unlikely. They already made up their mind to go after a townie initially (rather than a scum), so I don’t see a lot of reason for them to suddenly deviate from that plan in the backup plan area (which presumably they came up with last night). I imagine the conversation went something like this:
“Let’s go after Ace. If we can’t get Ace, we’ll go after kpaca.”
There’s just no way it went like this:
“Let’s go after Ace. If we can’t get Ace, we’ll go after kpaca (who is scum) to make it look like we’re town when kpaca is lynched and then turns out scum. That way, we can go after kpaca the next time, being heroes.”
It didn’t happen that way. Again, the simplest explanation makes the most sense.
Very important note: I don’t know what’s going to happen from here on out, but I want to say this now in the off chance that I am killed tonight (which I don’t think will happen because the scum obviously wants to kill the power roles, but who knows). Everything that has happened so far is set in stone. It cannot be changed, no matter how the scum try to twist it. Consequently, you cannot trust anything the scum does from this point onward. This includes explaining old discrepancies, trying to “act” like they’re upset about their scum buddies messing up the game, saying that so and so can’t be scum, choosing to kill a seemingly suboptimal player during the night, nothing. Even if a cop investigation turned up town on Bilbroxain, I would still think that Bilbroxain should be lynched, particularly if Ecophagy makes it through the night and gets a successful read on him. This is because the scum would know that he was the godfather (if he happens to be) and therefore would give a town result. The same, I suppose, also applies to an investigation of kpaca. I just want to make clear that future “evidence,” particularly from the scum, should not be seen as changing this analysis. It is airtight, in my opinion. All we have to do now is cast the votes.
Should Ecophagy survive the night, I recommend that he investigate Bilbroxain. I recommend that Ace protect himself.
Sorry scum, but in spite of your huge lead, you’ve lost this one. You might as well hand the cup to us now.
Hooray Yare and bravo town! unvote: Vote Sephiroth Owa.
Also why have Ace protect himself, if ecophagy dies we get no results. Or do you agree that we may not really need them at this point?
I guess he could do that too. It might depend on what game the scum decide they want to try to play. It's just reinsurance, really. We have the votes, so there isn't much they can do.
I'm sorry, Yare, but what definitive proof do you have for me being scum over Kpaca?
I think the fact that you asked this question, which is currently a secondary issuse, as opposed to hammering Sephiroth is highly questionable.
You seem more preoccupied with your own survival than the overall benefit to the town, which at this stage is highly suspect.
Assuming Sephiroth is Mafia, we can discuss your state of innocence tomorrow, after I hopefully have an ivestigation result somewhere, and more evidence.
If Sephiroth isn't mafia (which seems highly unlikely, especially because he has refused to defend himself at -1) then this is all academic as the town has lost.
Plus, if you actually read Yare's post he made some strong points against Weeping Willow (and by extension, you) as well as your own play. Try responding to them, instead of asking for repetition.
I like how you only cast the hammering vote after I point out that we need it. Instead, earlier, you were just concerned about your own well being; getting the scum today was not a priority.
A new day dawns with the flickering of the Great Bulb, beaming 75 Watts of fresh hope upon the citizens of Frigidaire. There is much work to be done.
But it will have to be done without Ace, Honey, Town Doctor, who is covered in goo and quite inedible. You all schlep him into the makeshift graveyard of the crisper drawer and resume the hunt for mold.
It is now day 4.
With 6 alive it is 4 to lynch.
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In other news, because of Ace's (claimed) dociness, I shall Unvote.
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
How did you feel when you came back and realized that you lost to MajoraX in the BotU because you didn't vote for yourself?
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I think you made something up to try to get kpaca lynched because he's the lone townie among the four suspects.
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I call this as pushing attemtion onto
someoneeveryone else.Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
@Bilbo, noted attempt to build a case against me from two scum not, they are the only people with a case against me.
meant now*, instead of not.
I just rather not have the scum zoom in with a speedlynch and end the game. While there aren't votes hanging out there, that can't happen. Glancing back over the beginning of the game, I think the town is very, very close to solving this game. I just want us to have some time to do what we need to do.
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What? I don't understand. What were you trying to say?
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
Dead players
hshadowa, Pepperoni Pizza, Vanilla Town - Dusted day 1.
Shino Tenshi, Twinkie, Vanilla Town - Modkilled day 2
kman1474, Chinese Take-Out, Vanilla Townie - Lynched day 2.
ced395, The Lonely Banana, Vanilla Town - Killed night 2.
Highly Probable Town
Sandsoft – Mason (Mustard)
Yare – Mason (Ketchup)
Ecophagy – Cop (Red Wine)
Ace – Doctor (Honey)
Suspects
Sephiroth Owa – Vanilla Townie (Unopened Jar of Mayonnaise)
Kpaca – Vanilla Townie (Half Filled and Open Can of Beer)
Ikkleste – Vanilla Townie (Half Bottle of Flat Soda)
Bilbroxain (Weeping Willow) – Vanilla Townie (Cocktail Sauce)
----------
First, let’s remember at the beginning of day 2 there was the big snafu involving me and Ecophagy where I wanted someone who roleblocked to come out if they blocked scum. That person never spoke up and we now know with certainty that that person did not speak up because that person does not exist; all of the dead townies were vanilla.
Hence, the lack of a kill during Night 1 must have been due to an inattentive scum.
Let’s go back and look at what happened:
End of Day 1, 9-25, 9:05 PM (EST)
Beginning of Day 2, 9-28, 11:34 AM
Keep these times in mind. So, who was or was not active during that time?
Ikkleste
Ikkleste went to Croatia on 9-19 and he returned on 9-29. There were no other posts in between that time. Clearly, he wasn’t around to submit the nightkill. Interestingly, however, in his goodbye post, he says he’ll be gone for “a week from today [9-19.]” According to his word, he was going to be back on 9-26, in plenty of time to submit the kill. However, it didn’t happen that way. Instead, he came back ten days later on 9-29, much later than anticipated.
Clearly, beyond any doubt, ikkleste was not around to submit a kill. Consequently, if he were one of the three (which I think is highly probable since a kill was missed), that would mean there are only two other options out there to submit the kill.
Sephiroth Owa
Sephiroth was quite active on 9-25 in the morning, namely at 10:14 AM, 10:55 AM, and 10:58 AM. Then, the day ends at 9:05 PM that day. From that point onward, Sephiroth had only one post, namely a one-liner bump of his trading thread on 9-26 at 5:44 PM. So, yes, he was potentially present to submit the kill. However, this was only a few hours into the three day night time limit. At this point, it is highly likely that the scum had not settled on a kill yet. While it might be argued that Sephiroth Owa was in fact around, I would suggest he was not for two reasons. First, he bumps his trading thread with regularity, usually every day or two. After his bump on 9-26, the thread went unbumped until 9-29 at 6:16 AM. Even better, that bump contained the following:
What’s he so upset about? Well, I suppose it could be this:
The Battle of the Users vote where he failed to vote for himself. (My understanding is that the Battle of the Users is just a silly and fun popularity contest). He ended up going on to win the tiebreaker, so it wasn’t that bad. It turned out that Sephiroth would go on to lose to MajoraX in another round, which I suppose is why he was confused when I mentioned this recently:
I was baiting him to see if he would say anything about his presence during that time. I actually wasn’t aware of his later defeat to MajoraX at the time I posted it, so I suppose this response is rational. I did intentionally load the question with “when you came back” to see if he would say anything about it (one way or the other), but he didn’t, suggesting he didn’t notice or that he knew that he did in fact “come back” so there wasn’t anything to say. So, this particularly ploy by me didn’t work all that well, but that was the point of that. Regardless, I think he was more likely upset that the scum didn’t get a kill during Night 1.
Overall, I think it’s pretty clear that Sephiroth Owa was not around either. More interestingly, however, he was around enough to make it appear that he might have been around to commit the kill. Perhaps his scum brethren relied upon that in assuming he would submit the kill and did not?
Bilbroxain (Weeping Willow)
Of course, Weeping Willow was replaced by Bilbroxain, but Weeping Willow was still in the game during Night 1. As became a talking point both immediately before and after Night 1, Weeping Willow was really present. Weeping Willow posted concerning the lynch right before Night 1 on 9-25 at 8:11 PM (less than an hour after the hammering vote had been cast and less than an hour before Night 1 began). Weeping Willow reappeared on 9-28 at 11:53AM, just 19 minutes after Day 2 began. She also had two posts on 9-26, so she was around some in the middle. Consequently, I think she was around to make the nightkill if it needed to be done, particularly since she was present almost instantaneously after Day 2 began. There is the possibility that there was a slight lapse from 9-26 to 9-28, though, as the other two that I previously analyzed couldn’t have covered that period either.
kpaca
Kpaca was around a lot during Night 1. He was present on 9-25 at 1:28 PM and returned to the game on 9-30 at 3:26 PM. So, it would seem that he was around to potentially make the kill.
Therefore, based upon all this, it seems highly probable that ikkleste and Sephiroth Owa are scum. There is just no other rational explanation for the missing kill, short of one person that was present, but just wasn’t thinking, which I suppose is possible.
------------
So, knowing 4 dead townies and 4 confirmed townies, let’s see what a PBPA gives us:
Sephiroth jumps on sandsoft for FoSing Weeping Willow, but this is very early on so it might not have meant much.
Kpaca gets on sandsoft’s case for promoting getting the game going.
This was the post that really started the analysis of Sephiroth during Day 1 (which was actually more expansive than I had originally thought after I went back and looked).
Kpaca goes along with the attack on Sephiroth, suggesting he may not be scum.
Sephiroth claims the noob defense.
Kpaca also, however, FoSes hshadowa in close proximity to his FoS of Sephiroth.
Sephiroth mentions a “neutral roleblocker” for no apparent reason. We know there is a roleblocker in this game.
Ced points out that Sephiroth mentioned a neutral roleblocker for no apparent reason.
Sephiroth makes a lengthy defense of Ace’s allegations. This seemed like a bit much to me so early.
Vaguest post ever.
Kpaca defends Sephiroth Owa.
Or not...apparently. Should we trust this?
Sephiroth examines the three lurkers, all three of which we know are town.
Weeping Willow appears right after the lynch to emphasize how much she hopes that we got scum.
This is the explanation, which I find fairly believable. I think the first lynch in your first game is actually a pretty big deal.
Ikkleste decides to attack kman and me after coming back from his vacation.
Sephiroth examines four people, all four of which are town.
Kpaca goes after kman while going after me.
A possible explanation for why Weeping Willow might not have been able to submit a scum kill during Night 1. Of course, she was around a lot (and right as Day 2 started) and this period she speaks of was actually after the start of Day 2, but it’s something to consider.
Kpaca tried to come down on both of us.
Kpaca disagrees with what in my opinion was a rather good explanation.
Sephiroth wants both of us to claim. I assume this is so we can find some power roles out.
Kpaca doesn’t want roles out in the open, as he emphasized earlier.
Ikkleste insists that that I’m scum and defends Weeping Willow. This is after my hidden message claim but before my posted night PM evidence
Bilbroxain comes in and goes straight after the masons, without mentioning other major issues at the time (namely, Ecophagy and kman)
Bilbroxain is “nervous” about ced.
Bilbroxain jumps on the anti-Ace bandwagon.
Just for the record. I’m not sure what to make of this.
Bilbroxain says he wants a lynch instead of no lynch.
Well, he can’t get the masons, why not get another townie instead?
Just something I noticed.
Kpaca gets on the Ace bandwagon. Subtly defends Sephiroth.
This one threw me because I feel like ikkleste is almost undoubtedly scum. In spite of having many opportunities to jump on the bandwagon, he never does it.
Lo and behold, the roleblocker goes for Ecophagy until the doc dies.
Ikkleste wants to get Ace too.
Ah, and here is where we get into it. Since Sephiroth is undoubtedly scum, there is the question of whether his vote for kpaca is a diversion. Does he pick kpaca hoping he gets lynched and he’ll be scum, showing that we can trust him? Or is he going for the win by going after the only unconfirmed townie?
This just seems like an incredibly cheesy tactic. Ikkleste is barning Sephiroth’s strategy. Again, however, the question is whether they want us to go after kpaca or not.
Kpaca seems to get rather upset with Sephiroth. Genuine upsetness or good acting?
----------
So, in summary:
Sephiroth Owa is scum.
Ikkleste is scum.
Either kpaca or Bilbroxain is scum.
I think Sephiroth Owa is the best target today because I think he is the most probable scum and is also a good candidate for being the roleblocker since he brought it up so much early on.
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Wow! Fantastic post Yare.
Only thing that I'll say for the last time - if you and Sandsoft are mafia, you deserve this win.
That said, you're not, and that really was just a joke.
I would also like to agree on the Seph claim, as his defence was unprecedented when I suggested his scumminess, to the point of playing both the newb card and the 'time away from the game' card.
Considering I die tonight, and assuming we hang Seph, tomorrow will look like:
Sandsoft – Mason (Mustard)
Yare – Mason (Ketchup)
Ecophagy – Cop (Red Wine)
Kpaca – (Half Filled and Open Can of Beer)
Ikkleste – (Half Bottle of Flat Soda)
Bilbroxain (Weeping Willow) (Cocktail Sauce)
Hopefully Seph (or whoever we lynch) is the roleblocker, allowing Eco to get a sight on one of the other suspects. Town will have to be wary though, as a wrong lynch on Day 4 will lose the town the game (assuming there were 3 mafia).
Another thing:
I'm not going to counter claim the doc? Why would you even mention that? Particularly since that sounds awfully scummy.
We are in agreeance.
I'm game for a lynch of any of the three, which ever the rest of the town decides on. As of right now, there are three different options imo,
1) all three of them are scum
2) 2 of them are scum
3) the masons duped us
The way i see it, 2 or 3 are almost completely ruled out for me at this point, as they should be for everyone else.
Seph: Only a scum would mention the the fact that they are unopened. This would be an excellent attempt at diversion.
Kpaca: Half-filled and open can of beer? Please. Would Joe leave a can of beer half-filled? I don't think so.
Ikkleste: Half-Empty Bottle of Flat soda? That's as close to stale as we are going to get.
I think Seph is the likelyest to go after today. And Yes, I know I spelled that wrong.
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
FoS- Sephiroth Owa
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
I noticed this as well, though I think there are plenty of other reasons to get rid of Sephiroth Owa.
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wow, nice stuff yare, just unvoting while i read it properly and take it in.
more in a moment
i don't like this post, the opening statement is obvious (since you are clearly not going to call yourself), and are just emphasizung attention away form yourself.
You aregument that they are unopened seems weak. It may well simply be in the role name
We aren't looking for stale food. We are looking for rotten food. An important distinction.
I am really not sure at all >.<
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Really? Do tell....
I will before this day ends, but I want to see a little more discussion first.
I am interested in what ikkleste and Sephiroth Owa have to say about all this.
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Really? Do tell....
apologies.
Are you kidding? Pizza takes forever to spoil. I once had a pizza in the fridge for three months before I ate it, and it was still good. A little cold, but still good.
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
Whats important is not how long we would feel comfortable eating a refridgerated pizza, but how gaming the mod is a fruitless "oh no the puns are back!" endeavor.
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
And of course, lynching the actual remaining townie because the scum told us to couldn't possibly occur, and lose us the game?
however, from the above interchange, it looks like only one of kpaca and Bilbroxian are scum (as, indeed Yare said before, I believe)
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In my opinion, it's obvious who the three scum are. However, since the rest of you can't tell, I have a proposition to make.
We lynch the ones that we all agree on as scum (these would be Ik and Seph). We spend day three and day four doing this. On night three and night four we lose Ace and Eco. As much as I hate to say it, but now that we have everything out in the open, it is unavoidable. (unless, of course, one of the masons happens to also be a vig) Then, on day five, you all decide between Kpaca and myself.
Thoughts?
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
Again, not helpful. It is only obvious to you because you either know who is scum by being one, or by actually being the last townie.
It is clearly not obvious to us. You have more information then we do.
Not especially, we have seen rather a lack of activity today, and we seem to have stalled floating the idea of lynching seph.
I also don't see why I can't investigate one of you tonight if we get then roleblocker. that'd settle things.
First random vote from kpaca is for Sephiroth, who is scum.
Kpaca’s second random vote is for Weeping Willow, the other scum candidate. Would a scum really vote for his two scum buddies right out of the gate? I just find this highly unlikely. Obviously, this isn’t enough to tilt things one way or the other, but it’s interesting to note.
Sephiroth gets on sandsoft for getting on Weeping Willow’s case. Is he trying to deflect attention from a scum buddy in a “funny” way?
Kpaca pushes Sephiroth harder in the early going. Maybe he’s trying to create separation. Again, however, I just don’t see this likely this early.
Sephiroth uses the noob defense to argue against this.
Though kpaca attacked Sephiroth Owa early on, he also attacked hshadowa early on as well. So, on the one hand he attacked a scum, but on the other it was tempered by another FoS shortly thereafter.
“I’m getting some feelings about some of the people in this game.”? Really? I know Weeping Willow is new, so I can see this as just an off hand comment. On the other hand, I see it as more likely that it was a comment meant to show presence and concern about the status of the game without actually saying anything.
Kpaca makes it clear he is not defending Sephiroth Owa. A little tight about being connected to Sephiroth perhaps?
Ah, here we have Weeping Willow asking hshadowa for a discrepancy in his statement. Seems fair enough.
And here is Weeping Willow voting for hshadowa. The problem? Hshadowa never posted between Weeping Willow asking for an explanation of the discrepancy and Weeping Willow’s vote.
Weeping willow posted this post after the previous post within a minute or two. Why is she so anxious to post...and then add a little bit more as an afterthought? Is she overly concerned about appearing to be scum?
Again, this different set of two posts were within a minute of each other. The second post adds nothing. Why do this? Because she’s worried about her appearance.
This post, with the quotes Weeping Willow is responding to, is here. You might want to go back and look at it in context...
Done that? Ok, I’m not really sure how I feel about Weeping Willow’s attempts to defend her cute “I hope we caught scum” comment at the end of Day 1. Personally, it just comes off as a little scummish. I can’t really say way. Perhaps it’s just too deferential.
Weeping Willow continues to refuse to take a position.
Weeping Willow tries to provide a rationale for the roleblocker to come out, but again produces nothing of substance in terms of the actual game.
This is just one of many posts that kpaca made attacking me and my refusal to talk during Day 2 when I was baiting kman. I’m just not really sure why he was so aggressive. Then again, I don’t think a scum would be this aggressive...
Oh yeah, there are scum that are this aggressive. In reading this post again, it just occurred to me how ridiculous this cult conclusion in. A cult? Really? Really? I mean, come on. After all that analysis, this is the conclusion that was reached? This is just a completely irrational play.
Kpaca agrees with ikkleste, but doesn’t bite on the cult thing (mainly because it’s absurd). Kpaca is still intent on getting the masons.
Of course, Weeping Willow was replaced. (Note that this post may not be in the sequentially right place relative to the other posts I have quoted here. It’s somewhere in here though.) Note that Weeping Willow asked to be replaced; she didn’t leave due to inactivity. This will be important later.
This post really got me. Bilbroxain jumps in and just barns kpaca and ikkleste’s anti-mason wagon. Knowing full well that the masons are actually masons, he tries to justify the ultimate outcome (“If one of the other actually turns out to be town...”), namely finding out that I am town. Even better, he actually mentions the role of “mayonnaise,” which we now know is Sephiroth Owa. Coincidence? Possibly.
Ah ha. Bilbroxain says that Weeping Willow left due to inactiveness. As Kraj stated earlier, her leaving had nothing to do with inactivity; she asked to leave. Perhaps she wouldn’t have time to play; this is certainly possible. However, this defense is unacceptable in light of what we’ve already seen.
Also of note is that Bilbroxain defends kman, who we know is town.
In spite of the overwhelming case in favor of the masons being town, ikkleste insists that I am scum. Note that he is barning Bilbroxain (This is important later). He also makes a very short post concerning Sephiroth Owa, yet makes lengthy posts about other players.
Bilbroxain doesn’t want to do the whole kman thing, again. This is a consistent story.
Bilbroxain was reacting to a post by ced where he says he doesn’t think that some player is the doc. Bilbroxain tries to turn it into a “disaster” because ced may have claimed to be the doc. Why would Bilbroxain want to point this out? Because he wanted to get ced to confirm what he suspected. This way the scum can kill the doc.
He defends his decision to ask about the doc and then defends lurking. Lo and behold, the two biggest lurkers at this point in the game are Sephiroth Owa and ikkleste (and Shino, admittedly).
Bilbroxain barns the Ace train.
Bilbroxain puts down his scum list. Kpaca is high on the list. Bilbroxain emphasizes how he wants to see more from the lurkers, but still has very little to say about them. He also puts them in the middle of his list so as to draw attention away from them.
Bilbroxain reinforces how good a lynch would be. We now know that all possible candidates at this point were town.
Bilbroxain gives up on the masons and moves on to another town target.
Kpaca barns the Ace train. He also subtly defends Sephiroth Owa, but doesn’t really make a statement one way or the other. He also says that the masons should be investigated, which to me seems like a bad play. Not necessarily a scummy play, just a bad play strategically.
This is after kman asked to be investigated. Bilbroxain asserts how this is godfather play and then suddenly has a paradigm shift and decides that kman should go. He justifies it on a “game balance” stance in that if we find out he is the godfather, that will somehow “prove” that the masons are town. Riiiight.
Kpaca wants to take kman down for his defeatist posting.
Sephiroth Owa casts the vote that puts kman at -1.
I figured out why ikkleste didn’t put the hammering vote here. It’s because of what all happened at the end of Day 1 and at the beginning of Day 2. Sephiroth Owa having just cast the -1 vote for Kman, ikkleste didn’t want to be the scum buddy who followed Sephiroth because it would look like a quick lynch and that could have all kinds of bad implications for the scum. This is why ikkleste backs off here.
Bilbroxain tries to get that last vote against kman.
--------Beginning of Day 3---------
Now, recall what I said before about how whether I thought that the scum were gaming us or whether they were going straight for the win. After thinking about this for a while without doing a reread, I figured that Occam’s Razor probably applies here in that the scum has the most incentive to go after the last townie right now. The game going longer with them supporting the lynching of a scum would only be the flashy “win more” play instead of the smart play. The optimal play is to win right now. I also think that when I was reading Day 3, I was reading it in the context of my mega-post having already been posted (exposing Sephiroth Owa and ikkleste) when in fact I had not. Consequently, when I look back now, the answer seems obvious, at least in my opinion.
Ok, Sephiroth sets up the train against Ace, one of the two unconfirmed townies (at that point; Ace hadn’t claimed yet). It’s important to note something else here. It was ced who died during the night. Why? Well, let’s think about it. The scum can choose from 3 unconfirmed townies (1 of which is presumably the doc), 1 of the 2 masons (both of whom certainly are not the doc), the confirmed cop (Ecophagy) or ced, who is confirmed town (and has not claimed a role). Since the masons don’t have a power role beyond being masons (and possibly might have some suspicion left), then you obviously have to lynch ced, as there is a positive probability that he is the doc. Otherwise, if you lynch one of the unconfirmed choices, then you take away one of your biggest assets (as should be incredibly evident by now): unconfirmed town. This is why they chose ced. You would think that they would pick Ecophagy, but they knew they could block him. I suppose they could have killed Ecophagy and blocked someone else randomly, but that wouldn’t have revealed if they hit the doc. Hence, this was the only play.
So, with that setup, knowing that the scum will win if they get this lynch, all they have to do is get one of the unconfirmed town lynched. They pick the most vulnerable target from Day 2 (Ace) and go for the gold. No tricks here (this is important shortly) so they go after him.
Bilbroxain barns Sephiroth’s attempt to get Ace.
Ikkleste throws suspicion on Ace as well.
Sephiroth makes his preferences clearly known. He tried to throw Bilbroxain in the middle without doing it too much. He also mentions kpaca, but there is “something he can’t put his finger on.” Note: Ace has not claimed yet, so the scum do not have incentive to throw suspicion on a scum buddy yet.
Kpaca also barns the Ace train and picks out the two remaining unconfirmed townies as targets.
Sephiroth suggest that Bilbroxain might be worth an investigation (Although, we’ve seen that emphasis, be it asterisks or italics, very recently on Day 3, again, in a discussion where Bilbroxain was involved). He wants to throw something that way, but not too much.
Kpaca gets on the Ace train.
The scum, distraught over the fact that they picked wrong with Ace and he happened to be the doctor (meaning the town won’t lynch him), go after their only other reasonable choice. In spite of his suspicion of Bilbroxain earlier, Sephiroth goes after kpaca – the only remaining way for the town to win.
Ikkleste immediately barns the attack on kpaca by coming up with this ludicrous reason for going after kpaca, namely that they have similar claims. While I initially thought this play was clever, I think it was just a cheap trick to try to get us to go after kpaca that just did not come off very well. This, for me, makes it pretty clear that kpaca is the last town.
Bilbroxain also barns against kpaca. We have all three scum going in the same direction almost immediately.
----------
And so, that’s what we have. As should be evident by now, the scum are:
Sephiroth Owa
Ikkleste
Bilbroxain (Weeping Willow)
I would recommend voting for them in that order. Though I am pretty sure I’m right, this order of voting, I think, provides the most advantage for the town in that it gives us an opportunity to get sure scum out of the way first, and therefore possibly get the roleblocker and/or godfather out of the way if they’re out there.
Regarding the possibility of a trick on the part of the scum in going after kpaca after going after Ace, I find it highly unlikely. They already made up their mind to go after a townie initially (rather than a scum), so I don’t see a lot of reason for them to suddenly deviate from that plan in the backup plan area (which presumably they came up with last night). I imagine the conversation went something like this:
“Let’s go after Ace. If we can’t get Ace, we’ll go after kpaca.”
There’s just no way it went like this:
“Let’s go after Ace. If we can’t get Ace, we’ll go after kpaca (who is scum) to make it look like we’re town when kpaca is lynched and then turns out scum. That way, we can go after kpaca the next time, being heroes.”
It didn’t happen that way. Again, the simplest explanation makes the most sense.
Very important note: I don’t know what’s going to happen from here on out, but I want to say this now in the off chance that I am killed tonight (which I don’t think will happen because the scum obviously wants to kill the power roles, but who knows). Everything that has happened so far is set in stone. It cannot be changed, no matter how the scum try to twist it. Consequently, you cannot trust anything the scum does from this point onward. This includes explaining old discrepancies, trying to “act” like they’re upset about their scum buddies messing up the game, saying that so and so can’t be scum, choosing to kill a seemingly suboptimal player during the night, nothing. Even if a cop investigation turned up town on Bilbroxain, I would still think that Bilbroxain should be lynched, particularly if Ecophagy makes it through the night and gets a successful read on him. This is because the scum would know that he was the godfather (if he happens to be) and therefore would give a town result. The same, I suppose, also applies to an investigation of kpaca. I just want to make clear that future “evidence,” particularly from the scum, should not be seen as changing this analysis. It is airtight, in my opinion. All we have to do now is cast the votes.
Should Ecophagy survive the night, I recommend that he investigate Bilbroxain. I recommend that Ace protect himself.
Sorry scum, but in spite of your huge lead, you’ve lost this one. You might as well hand the cup to us now.
Vote Sephiroth Owa
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Also why have Ace protect himself, if ecophagy dies we get no results. Or do you agree that we may not really need them at this point?
I guess he could do that too. It might depend on what game the scum decide they want to try to play. It's just reinsurance, really. We have the votes, so there isn't much they can do.
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Sephiroth Owa - 2 (kpaca, Yare)
Ace - 1 (sandsoft_blue)
kpaca - 1 (Sephiroth Owa)
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Vote Sephiroth_Owa.
I will keep my protection scheme to myself, simply to mess with scum.
Think you guys can guess what I'm going to do?
Do ya?
Very wise
Yare, that was some excellent analysis. I sincerely hope this is not hoodwinking of the century from scummy masons.
Vote: sephiroth Owa
I guess this means we need to wait for Sandsoft to get in, or for one of the scum to give up.
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
I really think you should be answering that question at this point.
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I think the fact that you asked this question, which is currently a secondary issuse, as opposed to hammering Sephiroth is highly questionable.
You seem more preoccupied with your own survival than the overall benefit to the town, which at this stage is highly suspect.
Assuming Sephiroth is Mafia, we can discuss your state of innocence tomorrow, after I hopefully have an ivestigation result somewhere, and more evidence.
If Sephiroth isn't mafia (which seems highly unlikely, especially because he has refused to defend himself at -1) then this is all academic as the town has lost.
Plus, if you actually read Yare's post he made some strong points against Weeping Willow (and by extension, you) as well as your own play. Try responding to them, instead of asking for repetition.
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We will disscuss my innocence vs. Kpaca's tomorrow.
Many thanks to Sgt. Chubbz of Damnation studios.
Magic Rules Advisor
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It has indeed been a long five hours. A long, telling, five hours.
Good luck tonight gentlemen, may luck be with you Ace!
Sephiroth Owa - 5 (Ace, Bilbroxain, Ecophagy, kpaca, Yare)
Ace - 1 (sandsoft_blue)
kpaca - 1 (Sephiroth Owa)
OK, so I turned 30 on Friday and partied a tad too hard last night, so my apologies but I just don't have a flavor scene in me right now.
Sephiroth Owa is lynched, very dead, and very rotten. He was Rotten Eggs, Vanilla Mafia.
It is now night. Send me night actions, yadda yadda.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
But it will have to be done without Ace, Honey, Town Doctor, who is covered in goo and quite inedible. You all schlep him into the makeshift graveyard of the crisper drawer and resume the hunt for mold.
It is now day 4.
With 6 alive it is 4 to lynch.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.