I have a very strong suspicion that the other names on my list are the mafia.
Is there a basis for your suspicion? If you're right, your role seems unbalanced in favor of the town, which makes me suspicious of the claim. The other thing that makes me suspicious is that this would be the 5th neutral in this game. (chamber, sg, Puzz, Kevin, and LJ)
Obviously, we are going to want those names at some point, but we can discuss the issue a bit before holding you at gunpoint.
@DM - Personally, I believe that you're Miho, but I don't think that clears you. As for setting up a false claim of bodyguard, it doesn't seem that extreme. You could just say "Guess I protected the wrong person!" every single night.
Is there any reason for your vote on Raf besides the fact that he's voting you?
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Is there a basis for your suspicion? If you're right, your role seems unbalanced in favor of the town, which makes me suspicious of the claim. The other thing that makes me suspicious is that this would be the 5th neutral in this game. (chamber, sg, Puzz, Kevin, and LJ)
Well, I haven't seen the movie, but I read the wiki for Sin City. The other names on my list don't seem like very nice people according to that source. I assumed that they were the mafia due to flavor.
There's no need to be suspicious of the fact that I'm 'neutral'. That information is not in dispute and was provided by our cop.
Obviously, we are going to want those names at some point, but we can discuss the issue a bit before holding you at gunpoint.
Obviously. I don't believe now is the proper time though.
Is there any way you can prove you're not Kevin?
No, there really isn't a way that I'm aware of. I guess you could lynch me to be certain, but I don't think that would do the town any good.
@DM - Personally, I believe that you're Miho, but I don't think that clears you. As for setting up a false claim of bodyguard, it doesn't seem that extreme. You could just say "Guess I protected the wrong person!" every single night.
Is there any reason for your vote on Raf besides the fact that he's voting you?
I also believe the claim of Miho. If there was another Miho, I'm sure he/she would have stepped forward to counter-claim it by now.
"I assure you, I am quite innocent," says Fadeblue, as he takes a long swallow from the paper bag in his hand. "The case against me is nothing more than lies and deception. Now, if you will allow me to demon-"
In mid-sentence, Fadeblue fall to the floor, and starts twitching. His tongue lolls out, and his eyes go bug-eyed. The paper bag drains its contents onto the carpet in a stream of dirty brown foam.
Someone pokes him with a foot. He doesn't move. Blood trickles out the side of his mouth.
You waste no time in digging through his pockets for valuables.
Let's see...$2000 cash, several major credit cards, a police badge, standard-issue Beretta, and...hello. An envelope, already opened, with a letter inside:
"To FB.
It's time. The mayor and your superiors have been dealt with. Take your men into Old Town and remove anyone who resists. Assume control of the property and their various enterprises, and reroute the profits to the primary dropoff point. If you succeed, you will be well rewarded. If you fail...
...you know the price of failure by now. Get the job done.
Signed,
WQ."
Now isn't that interesting.
Carrion Pigeons steps forward, grinning proudly. "Gentlemen, I believe we've netted our first scum."
Dead: 1. DYH-Townie Lunatic/Roleblocker/Investigator. Slashed to ribbons on Day One.
2. Kenji-Townie Paranoid. Died of a sudden heart attack day one. (Modkill)
3. Puzzle- Neutral Pacifist. Lynched by the town day one.
4. Bateleur-Townie, the Doctor's Daugher. Throat slashed night two.
5. Hawkeye7-Townie Bodyguard. Sliced and diced by ninja stars day 2.
6. Armlx-Townie Mailman. Lynched by the town day 2.
7. Fayul- Townie, Overzealous Vigilante. Turned into a pez dispenser, night 3.
8. Sorryguy-Townie, Neutral Mason. Throat crushed night 3.
9. Fadeblue-Mafia, False Cop, Mafia Leader. Poisoned day 3.
MIA:
1. Dwight McCarthy-Townie Mod Persona. Chased out of town, shot, and possibly killed, day 2.
There's no need to be suspicious of the fact that I'm 'neutral'. That information is not in dispute and was provided by our cop.
I'm not disputing the fact that you're neutral. But if you're NOT kevin, that makes 5 neutrals, which is rather high. If you ARE kevin, that makes only 4 neutrals.
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I'm not disputing the fact that you're neutral. But if you're NOT kevin, that makes 5 neutrals, which is rather high. If you ARE kevin, that makes only 4 neutrals.
Yeah, it took me a minute or two after I posted to figure that out. Like I said before though, there's only one way to test the validity of my claim. Well, the other option is not one that I would entertain due to my limited supply of bullets. I can't afford to go killing people for no reason.
LJustus: do you actually have to kill them, or do they just have to be dead?
About the kill, well, hmm. We've had a kill with Kevin seeming the likely culprit, one with Miho seeming the likely culprit, and now a poisoning, maybe? Is that in flavor with anyone from SC?
As to our choice of a kill now, D_M is still possible, though I'm now most interested in LJ. Just because fade was mafia doesn't mean D_M didn't do the kill, which was why I was starting to become a little hesitant on fade anyway. Happily the daykiller dealt with the issue for us.
As for LJ, the main suspicion is 1)that the cops investigation gives us no rerason to think he's pro-town, and 2)that his claim is a killing ability. How many killing roles do we have? And even if we believe him about his ability, we can't guarantee the truthfulness of his win condition; for all we know, he would win by himself, like Puzzle would have in WD2.
Given that the pressure vs. mafia is significantly lower since we didn't have to use a lynch to kill fade, I'd think our best bet would be to go after the potential SK.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
They just have to be gone in the end-game. So, if we lynch all the mafia, I will still win. That's the main reason I am not using my kill ability. I can win just as well without it. Although, now that I am outed, I don't think I'll likely have the chance to use it.
I know this is a huge WIFOM, but would I have claimed a kill ability if I were the SK? That would take balls the size of church bells.
There's no way a townie daykiller would try to kill MatJoe. So this person is Neutral.
But, the more I think about it, it is possible all the kills come from the same person, who would likely be a SK type role. They may have realized, however, that the mafia were running away with this and they had to stop killing townies and get a scum if they themselves wanted a chance to win. The fact we have all these different methods lends credence to this, as it seems quite unlikely we have three separate day-killers, even if they were all "one-shot" daykillers.
LJustus: while I tend to believe the claim, what I have a harder time with is the idea that all the people on your list would be mafia. That would make you basically a townie vig., because you'd win with the town no matter what. So why are you "Neutral?"
I'm betting there are names on your list that aren't mafia. In fact, if Wallenquist was one of them, and Kevin is another, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the third was a townie.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
The third name is the one that I'm not 100% certain about. The name is one of a disreputable person, in a disreputable profession, who works for disreputable people. This leads me to believe that the character is mafia. Knowing Az, it may just as well be a townie or neutral. With the other two names on the list, I assumed mafia. But I could be wrong.
Oh, and Axelrod, I think I am classified as neutral because I can still win if the mafia wins - given that the three players on my list are dead. I find it highly more likely that I will win with the town. (Actually, I find it more likely that I won't survive to see tomorrow morning.)
in that case we dont need to worry about LJ today. heres what we do:
lets assume LJ is either SK or his claimed role.
If LJ is his claimed role, he unloads a few on the mafia/sk tonight. He gets confirmed, and the town probably comes out ahead. Either that or the mafia kills him, which saves us a lynch.
If LJ is SK, he can't win. However, the mafia can't gamble on the chance he might have this ability. Theres a good chance theyll have to kill him. Even if they don't, the town lynches him and we are unlikely to come out losing.
Quote from Rhinocero »
At this point, I am way more believing of fadeblue than draygn_mage. dragyn_mage has told us that he killed a townie. That to me is the strongest evidence that currently exists. There are several holes in fadeblue's claim - why would a naive cop be told he's naive (alright, he got hints, but still)? Also, the actions of Fade on Day One are certainly suspicious to me in light of this information. Nevertheless, dragyn_mage admitted to killing a townie.
Also, I agree in getting a claim from LJustus.
Finally, vote: dragyn_mage cuz I'm not a cultist.
I was already pretty suspicious of Rhino, and the mafia's ability to talk during the day allows them to coordinate their attacks and defenses. I definitely don't trust him.
If LJ is SK, he can't win. However, the mafia can't gamble on the chance he might have this ability. Theres a good chance theyll have to kill him. Even if they don't, the town lynches him and we are unlikely to come out losing.
Or the mafia might leave him alive because they know that, come the next day, everyone's going to be like, "Hey, why is LJustus still alive? Let's lynch him!" This is especially true if they share your belief that LJustus can't win anyway.
If we believe someone's guilty, it would be best we act accordingly and lynch them. Especially someone with the potential of killing innocent people and removing whatever gain we have received with the death of fadeblue.
Quote from jcsuperstar »
Having seen the movie, I can say that pretty much everyone in Sin City is "disreputable" in some way. Hartigan is the one exception.
Actually, Hartigan is framed by the Rourkes as a pedophile, so even he can come off as disreputable. The only perfectly innocent one is Nancy.
Quote from jcsuperstar »
3 days and 3 daykills. Is it possible these were all done by the same person, despite the different kill methods?
It would be either that or we have three killing roles, which is extremely unlikely.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
About the kill, well, hmm. We've had a kill with Kevin seeming the likely culprit, one with Miho seeming the likely culprit, and now a poisoning, maybe? Is that in flavor with anyone from SC?
Not that I remember. Pretty much everyone in Sin City who is skilled in killing does so by force. Physical combat, bladed weapons, hit-and-run accidents, grenades and guns are the preferred methods of killing. I don't think I remember anyone dying as a result of poison.
Personally, I think the means of death are a red herring, and that there's only one daykiller.
Quote from LJustus »
The third name is the one that I'm not 100% certain about. The name is one of a disreputable person, in a disreputable profession, who works for disreputable people. This leads me to believe that the character is mafia. Knowing Az, it may just as well be a townie or neutral. With the other two names on the list, I assumed mafia. But I could be wrong.
You don't really know much of anything then, do you?
First off, you're looking for a disreputable character in Sin City? Great hint. That's like saying your win condition is to shoot the black and white penguin in Antarctica. It doesn't rule out ANYONE except Nancy. Hell, even the postal workers have trust issues, what does that tell you?
Unvote, vote LJustus. I can't say I trust you at all, but this is primarily to apply pressure to get questions answered. First off, you say the other two names you assume are mafia. I take it you don't have names of people, merely names of characters. What are those names?
What bothers me most is that LJustus claimed hired gun. Memory serves correctly, the hired guns work for the mob in Sin City.
First of all, AS, LJustus hasn't claimed to know who the mafia are, just three of their rolenames. Completely aside from the likelihood of such a claim, he can't guarantee any kind of proof to us of his ability.
Second of all, I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to win if he was SK. Care to explain?
Third of all, what comprehensible advantage is there to waiting a day to kill someone we suspect when we have very little in the way of other good targets? Either we trust him or we don't.
If we trust him, we probably ought to name claim. If we don't, we ought to lynch him. Just letting him live another night is unproductive to either goal.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
in that case we dont need to worry about LJ today. heres what we do:
lets assume LJ is either SK or his claimed role.
If LJ is his claimed role, he unloads a few on the mafia/sk tonight. He gets confirmed, and the town probably comes out ahead.
Before you spark another townie killing spree, I missed the bit where LJ knows who the scum are to actually unload on. LJ, if we asked you to prove yourself tonight, do you actually know where to start?
I think you should tell us the names you have, and if you're telling the truth you give the town some information on the people we're looking for. For example, if you confirm Shredder's in the game, that certainly makes things interesting for dm. Not to mention that we can ultimately confirm you (or not) by seeing if the descriptions of the dead scum match up with your ideas.
I don't see where it can hurt us for you to spill those names, in fact.
Oh, and concur that the likelihood is that the daykiller chooses their kill method and it's only one person (which is bad for LJustus, since it suggests Kevin isn't really here). Given the attempt to kill matjoe and the kill on fade, it must be an SK.
Now that we've had a claim from LJ, I don't mind now saying that LJustus was in fact the person I watched last night who didn't receive a PM. So he didn't use a night action last night, anyway.
The pm implied that he was not really either anti or pro town. This would make sense with his claimed role. It also said he looked somewhat tormented. I don't think we should lynch him today. The best target I see is vote: draygn_mage.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
If we trust him, we probably ought to name claim.
Maybe, we could make his role useful without it though.
Unless Az was trying to be really weird, I think we probably have a day killer with a bevy of MOs. Wait... Could the mafia be the day killers, and the SK be the night killer? That would make sense if Kevin and Miho were both on the mafia. Which doesn't make sense. ugh
Or the mafia might leave him alive because they know that, come the next day, everyone's going to be like, "Hey, why is LJustus still alive? Let's lynch him!" This is especially true if they share your belief that LJustus can't win anyway.
The mafia might leave him alive, but then they're risking their lives if he's not SK. Also, if he confirms himself the town won't lynch him.
If we believe someone's guilty, it would be best we act accordingly and lynch them. Especially someone with the potential of killing innocent people and removing whatever gain we have received with the death of fadeblue.
You guys are still looking at the picture incorrectly. Neutral isn't anti-town, neutral is NEUTRAL. The chance that he harms us is almost the same as the chance he harms mafia.
We need to hit mafia. When we are so close to losing, it is more important that we hit mafia than the SK.
Memory serves correctly, the hired guns work for the mob in Sin City.
Anybody who sees this as evidence should also give Miho townie points.
Quote from carrion pigeons »
First of all, AS, LJustus hasn't claimed to know who the mafia are, just three of their rolenames. Completely aside from the likelihood of such a claim, he can't guarantee any kind of proof to us of his ability.
proof that he has nightkills would be good enough proof for me. the presence of an extra kill proves hes not SK. see below.
Second of all, I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to win if he was SK. Care to explain?
Either the mafia will kill him or the town will lynch him. Theres no hiding left for him.
Third of all, what comprehensible advantage is there to waiting a day to kill someone we suspect when we have very little in the way of other good targets? Either we trust him or we don't.
Because by waiting a day, he can potentially clear himself.
If we trust him, we probably ought to name claim. If we don't, we ought to lynch him. Just letting him live another night is unproductive to either goal.
He did name claim; he is a neutral: hired gun.
You guys are still stuck in this assumption that we must kill people we dont trust immediately. The mafia are a higher priority.
Quote from RafaelK »
Before you spark another townie killing spree, I missed the bit where LJ knows who the scum are to actually unload on. LJ, if we asked you to prove yourself tonight, do you actually know where to start?
the presence of an extra kill should do it. As for hitting scum, the following people are pretty much clear:
In addition, if we lynch one of these people and they are townie his percentage goes up.
So if we dont lynch him, it works like this:
If LJ is truthful and the mafia dont kill him, he confirms himself by nightkill and has >50% chance of offing scum.
If LJ is truthful and the mafia kill him, we save ourselves a lynch.
If LJ is lying and the mafia don't kill him, we lynch him. His kill is about as likely to hit townie as it is to hit mafia. I think he might even favor killing mafia to lengthen the game.
If LJ is lying and the mafia kill him, we save ourselves a lynch AND the mafia uses up their kill.
The mafia might leave him alive, but then they're risking their lives if he's not SK. Also, if he confirms himself the town won't lynch him.
Killing someone will not confirm him. All it will prove is that he's capable of making a self-consistent false-claim.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
You guys are still looking at the picture incorrectly. Neutral isn't anti-town, neutral is NEUTRAL. The chance that he harms us is almost the same as the chance he harms mafia.
We need to hit mafia. When we are so close to losing, it is more important that we hit mafia than the SK.
Neutral IS anti-town, unless they win with the town, which for some reason, seems to occasionally be the case in this particular game. AWC's are always harmful to the town.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
proof that he has nightkills would be good enough proof for me. the presence of an extra kill proves hes not SK. see below.
How? We know absolutely nothing about the SK except that he exists. We certainly can't guarantee that he's a daykiller alone.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Either the mafia will kill him or the town will lynch him. Theres no hiding left for him.
Ah. So you propose a game of chicken. As a general rule, mafia win those, simply based on proportion.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
Because by waiting a day, he can potentially clear himself.
Not by killing someone, he can't.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
He did name claim; he is a neutral: hired gun.
I actually meant a mass claim, to make use of his marvelous role. We ought to be able to catch 3 scum straight out the gate, right? Seems a little overpowered to me, but whatever.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
You guys are still stuck in this assumption that we must kill people we dont trust immediately. The mafia are a higher priority.
I choose my lynhes based on who I believe to be lying, or at least who I believe I have reason to trust. It's terrible strategy to lynch people we don't know anything about just because a suspicious player claimed a pro-town role.
I'll grant that this game is full of suspicious rolelcaims and the like, but I refuse to just let people slide for no better reason than because they can come up with an unprovable, purportedly pro-town role. That kind of thinking gets the town dead in a hurry.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
the presence of an extra kill should do it. As for hitting scum, the following people are pretty much clear:
In addition, if we lynch one of these people and they are townie his percentage goes up.
That assumes that LJustus is even able to kill someone not on his list, and that all of the people on his list are mafia, and that we aren't making any mistakes in our assumptions about cleared players. Taking all that into account, it's probably closer to a <20% chance, if that. Even then, it hardly clears him.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
So if we dont lynch him, it works like this:
If LJ is truthful and the mafia dont kill him, he confirms himself by nightkill and has >50% chance of offing scum.
If LJ is truthful and the mafia kill him, we save ourselves a lynch.
If LJ is lying and the mafia don't kill him, we lynch him. His kill is about as likely to hit townie as it is to hit mafia. I think he might even favor killing mafia to lengthen the game.
If LJ is lying and the mafia kill him, we save ourselves a lynch AND the mafia uses up their kill.
1) Won't happen, ever.
2) Unlikely. Mafia have very little reason to go after him, since even if he's telling the truth, he still hurts the town by his existence, since he has the mafia WC by his own admission.
3) Are you being thick on purpose? He has no way of knowing the difference. Regardless, we gain no net advantage from this that we could anticipate.
4) This is the only positive point, but it's an argument for it never happening. This is exactly the reason the mafia don't want to kill him, and why we do.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
We need to hit mafia. When we are so close to losing, it is more important that we hit mafia than the SK.
I can't agree with this. Getting the SK means one more of us gets to live each day. The SK is far more likely to hit townies than mafia.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
proof that he has nightkills would be good enough proof for me. the presence of an extra kill proves hes not SK. see below.
I'll agree with this. If we can agree on a nighttime target for LJ, that would pretty much clear him of being SK. Unless we somehow had an SK that could nightkill AND daykill.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
As for hitting scum, the following people are pretty much clear:
You don't think Carrion is clear? He's the one who provided evidence against Fade. Also, I disagree about DM and HR.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
So if we dont lynch him, it works like this:
If LJ is truthful and the mafia dont kill him, he confirms himself by nightkill and has >50% chance of offing scum.
So basically, you're arguing that LJ should fire randomly at a non-cleared player tonight? We should be able to do better than that. If we want to test LJustus's nightkill, we should decide on a target.
About Rhino: He took Fade's side, which is definitely a point against him. But what is the case aside from that? Can AS or chamber put together a list of evidence?
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Killing someone will not confirm him. All it will prove is that he's capable of making a self-consistent false-claim.
so he's a mafia/sk that can kill additional people yet hasn't? a mafia with extra kills could have ended the game by now.
Neutral IS anti-town, unless they win with the town, which for some reason, seems to occasionally be the case in this particular game. AWC's are always harmful to the town.
our objective is to kill the scum, not the scum and neutrals. and as he said, he can win with the town.
How? We know absolutely nothing about the SK except that he exists. We certainly can't guarantee that he's a daykiller alone.
so you think that the SK can kill at day AND night? If so, why has he failed to do so before now? Also, the lack of an SK daykill would show up. If he was SK the cover would fail. Or we could somewhat control him, or lynch him.
Ah. So you propose a game of chicken. As a general rule, mafia win those, simply based on proportion.
Were not playing this game against the mafia. All im saying that the SK knows he will die one way or the other.
I actually meant a mass claim, to make use of his marvelous role. We ought to be able to catch 3 scum straight out the gate, right? Seems a little overpowered to me, but whatever.
1) hes not sure all the people on his list are bad.
2) what mafia would name their ACTUAL rolenames? Roark, Manute, etc are obvious scum names.
I choose my lynhes based on who I believe to be lying, or at least who I believe I have reason to trust. It's terrible strategy to lynch people we don't know anything about just because a suspicious player claimed a pro-town role.
Just because a suspicious player claimed a pro-town role doesnt make him mafia. And I can't believe you think the scum would have additional nightkill abilities.
That assumes that LJustus is even able to kill someone not on his list, and that all of the people on his list are mafia, and that we aren't making any mistakes in our assumptions about cleared players. Taking all that into account, it's probably closer to a <20% chance, if that. Even then, it hardly clears him.
The only assumption that might be bad is him failing to kill people not on his list. Otherwise, the list is pretty irrelevant as he's at our mercy.
You really think that any of the cleared people aren't? Even in that case, theres a cool 35% chance of hitting scum with random shots.
1) Won't happen, ever.
why?
2) Unlikely. Mafia have very little reason to go after him, since even if he's telling the truth, he still hurts the town by his existence, since he has the mafia WC by his own admission.
no he doesnt. his win condition is to kill select people, at least two of which are anti-town. he's more town than not. right now hes as powerful as a vigilante.
3) Are you being thick on purpose? He has no way of knowing the difference. Regardless, we gain no net advantage from this that we could anticipate.
35% with random shots. theres no net advantage, which means that the other options are the relevant ones.
4) This is the only positive point, but it's an argument for it never happening. This is exactly the reason the mafia don't want to kill him, and why we do.
except he could be telling the truth.
Quote from jcsuperstar »
I can't agree with this. Getting the SK means one more of us gets to live each day. The SK is far more likely to hit townies than mafia.
at this point in the game, slightly.
if he's the SK and we get him, we just removed a major obstacle to the mafia winning.
if he's not the SK and we get him, we might as well forfeit.
I'll agree with this. If we can agree on a nighttime target for LJ, that would pretty much clear him of being SK. Unless we somehow had an SK that could nightkill AND daykill.
yes, that seems highly unlikely to me.
You don't think Carrion is clear? He's the one who provided evidence against Fade. Also, I disagree about DM and HR.
he did? well, I definitely think DM is innocent. It should still be >50% no matter what one believes.
So basically, you're arguing that LJ should fire randomly at a non-cleared player tonight? We should be able to do better than that. If we want to test LJustus's nightkill, we should decide on a target.
I don't think so. the mafia can talk to each other, and theres a great chance they can steer the target away from themselves.
About Rhino: He took Fade's side, which is definitely a point against him. But what is the case aside from that? Can AS or chamber put together a list of evidence?
he hasn't been contributing or speculating much. I'll se what I can do about concrete stuff.
AS- If fade hadn't come up as "mafia leader", I'd almost think you must be a Godfather. You actually do talk some sense, except for the bit where you continue to insist on having LJ fire randomly into the crowd as if that's a good way for him to clear himself. I particularly like the bit where you'd prefer him to choose your target rather than a target selected by the town generally on the basis that the mafia are running the show (perhaps you're right, on evidence of previous days).
But definitely remove carrion from your random kill list, no-one was on fade until cp claimed roleblocker and said he'd blocked fade last night when there was apparently no mafia kill. I think he's more cleared than HR at this point. There's distancing maneuvers and then there's actively trying to get someone killed.
Still want Ljustus to give the names. If he knows the scum rolenames, that's something. At the least, we'll see if they're all Sin City people or not.
Oh, and I'm planning on seeing the movie at an outdoor cinema tonight, so whoo me
I forgot about carrion. Id change it if you were allows to edit.
because he replaced Einsteinmonkey, Rhino only has been present for the last 350 posts. He has made 12 of these posts compared to an average of 350/19 = 18.4 posts. In only 2 of his posts has he really said anything relevant, and most of his posts are under 4 lines. The only ones longer than 4 are when he decides to vote somebody.
I am somewhat leery of lynching Azrael, because that would mean the mod is lying to us. And that just messes with the entire game, you know what I mean? However, I support you in ending this day, I guess, and the evidence is pretty iron-clad.
In terms of Armlx - Probably scum, to my mind - a liar and trying to make a townie look scummy.
In terms of SG/Chamber - I suppose vigging them is acceptable, though I don't think it will do much good.
As regards Armlx, he is my top-priority choice at the moment. The fact that he seems to have faked his investigation result in order to cast HE, a now-confirmed townie, as an SK in a manner that seems inconsistent with his role really makes me suspect him. Furthermore, as he seems to have messed up with Axelrod's investigation, well... VOTE: Armlx.
At this point, I am way more believing of fadeblue than draygn_mage. dragyn_mage has told us that he killed a townie. That to me is the strongest evidence that currently exists. There are several holes in fadeblue's claim - why would a naive cop be told he's naive (alright, he got hints, but still)? Also, the actions of Fade on Day One are certainly suspicious to me in light of this information. Nevertheless, dragyn_mage admitted to killing a townie.
Also, I agree in getting a claim from LJustus.
Finally, vote: dragyn_mage cuz I'm not a cultist.
but really, the greatest evidence are these quotes when taken into account of how little he has been posting otherwise.
2) Unlikely. Mafia have very little reason to go after him, since even if he's telling the truth, he still hurts the town by his existence, since he has the mafia WC by his own admission.
He would win with the mafia, but that doesn't mean he has the mafia win condition, so the mafia would't have it any easier with him alive. They have to outnumber the town including him. At least that's what I got from it.
Quote from aurorasparrow »
our objective is to kill the scum, not the scum and neutrals. and as he said, he can win with the town.
Scum normally means mafia+neutrals. In this game I will define it as scum+neutrals whose goals conflict with the town's. I've never heard of a game where the town won with the SK alive.
I'm sorry for lurking; basically, a lot of the time, I don't have much to say. I could have about 6 more posts, they'd all be one liners. However, I'll try and post more more times.
firstly, unvote: dragyn_mage in light of Fadeblue's scumitude.
I was suspicious of Dragyn_Mage, I admit it. Why I felt that the town-kill was suspicious was because it seemed like he was trying to pass off a scum (prob. sk) move as a townie move (like I tried and failed miserably to do in Random 2). I also thought the daykill of Matjoeman by someone who supposedly had the same kill method as Miho supposedly does. (I guess this is what I should do more of =/) Note that I was by no means NOT suspicious of Fade - I did note several things. I was merely more suspicious of DM at that point.
@LJustus - I see your plan, Aurorasparrow (although I didn't at first). Basically, if he's part of hte nightkilling group, we're missing a kill tomorrow. Of course, it's possible that it could be messed up if he's truthful or if he's a liar. If he's telling the truth, the mafia could hold back and mess us all up. Either way, roleblocking of mafia or of him by a potential mafia 'blocker (or just the claim thereof if he's mafia) will screw things up big time. Furethermore, I'm not sure that the odds merit such a sacrifice, especially as we don't know if his third listee is even mafia. so I really don't think this is a good plan - too high odds of failing, and of sacrificing a townie.
At this point, I'm having trouble figuring out if Raf and JCS are bumbling but well meaning townies to scum trying to co-ordinate an attack on a townie (me). I have a hard time thinking that JCS is scum what with him pushing, pulling, and doing his damndest to bring my wagon to a majority. I have narrowed my targets to 3 for tonight. I'm not revealing them for obvious reasons. I don't think we can count on the scum or sk to target anyone in particular tonight as we have several roles in the open that scum wouldn't want around. I read over the mafia theory thread and almost cried, reading how docs shouldn't try to outguess the scum because they rarely succeed. That's exactly what I have to do. I can say this much. The scum REALLY can't afford to leave me alive now. If I choose correctly, I force them to 1-for-1 every night.
I miss not having someone to chat to anymore during the day. I think it's resulting in me posting more during the day as a result. Good or bad? I don't know.
Quote from Rhinocero »
firstly, unvote: dragyn_mage in light of Fadeblue's scumitude.
What's one got to do with the other?
I'm sure AS would disagree, but personally I'm not suspicious of you for being suspicious of DM. Lurkertude except to add momentum to existing bandwagons, plus your support of fade is the suspicious thing here. Mafia often act a BIT suspicious of each other but then try to go hit on someone else. Your eagerness to abandon the bandwagon the moment someone pressures you is much more scummy (and makes me feel perhaps that if you're a scum, DM actually isn't. We'll see.)
I'm sure AS would disagree, but personally I'm not suspicious of you for being suspicious of DM. Lurkertude except to add momentum to existing bandwagons, plus your support of fade is the suspicious thing here. Mafia often act a BIT suspicious of each other but then try to go hit on someone else. Your eagerness to abandon the bandwagon the moment someone pressures you is much more scummy (and makes me feel perhaps that if you're a scum, DM actually isn't. We'll see.)
My reasoning here is that the two most likely scenarios for me are these - either DM is scum and Fayul's death represents the scum's nightkill and fadebue is therefore probably town (or rather we have no real evidence either way) OR fadeblue is scum, DM is town, and the lack of mafia kill is caused by roleblock. Although there are other possibilites (either both are town or both are scum) I find the above two most likely. Since one provision of the first is rendered untrue (fade is not town) it is impossible, leaving two possiblities - the first one (fade was blocked; DM is town and used an unwise vig-bodyguard-watched ability last night) I regard as more likely than the second (DM is scum who used some sort of extra kill last night in addition to using a day kill yesterday) because the second one requires an unwiedly number of kills.
I'll do a PBPA if you want, but it won't be for a while. School plus preparations to go to the nearest prerelease this weekend are narrowing the time I have to spend online. I just won't have the ability to spend enough time to do that until maybe Monday.
AS: Okay, I'm officially sick of quoting you piece by piece. I'll try to respond to your points tomorrow sometime. I'm going to bed.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
Ah, well put there Rhino. Yeah, I kind of forgot the point that if fade was the nightkiller and he was blocked, then dm's kill isn't the mafia kill and so he's clean (just stupid).
It's still possible that dm actually did the kill and fade being blocked was actually unconnected (in which case wow, he got unlucky), but I'm willing to acknowledge the unlikelihood of this. I still wish dm would mention why he didn't consider bodyguarding the claimed cop, seeing as he hasn't answered that yet.
unvote then, but with a fos draygn still there for the future should draygn continue to survive.
My computer has been giving me issues about posting anything more than 2 lines long...those of you on mana tap already know...So I don't know what I can do other than E-mail Az my posts...
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I think this takes the pressure off DM, for the moment.
in post #1134, before you said this:
I have a hard time thinking that JCS is scum what with him pushing, pulling, and doing his damndest to bring my wagon to a majority.
I don't see you as being cleared, but the fact that Fade is mafia provides a reasonable story for why there was no mafia kill. Therefore, I'm willing to leave you alone for now. Maybe you can even kill some scum for us.
I'm not entirely convinced by the Rhino bandwagon, but I'll agree he looks a little suspect.
I'll also point out that Crippled_Fist has been lurking like a swamp thing.
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As it turns out, DM, I've been working on a complete re-read of the thread, and was planning on posting my results shortly. I got sidetracked, and I have class today, but I should still have a couple reasonable cases for us to review tonight(IRL).
As it stands, I'd say that the probable townies would be(in order):
CropCircles(if I need to claim to prove this, I'm willing to do that at any point)
Carrion Pigeons
Matjoeman
Aurorasparrow
RafaelK
Draygn Mage
Chamber
Of the remaining players, I'm currently of the idea that Crippled_Fist is town. I'll explain my reasoning on this when I have time to look it up in my notes.
...in which my scumdar leaves Axelrod and WoLG interchangable. I'm convinced that Rhino is mafia and I'd venture to guess that JC is too. The LJ situation is weird, and I think I might be able to get behind a plan that involves him shooting an unconfirmed. I'll present full cases tonight.
(Note: No one should be killed without the chance to prove their innocence. There's no point in offing potentially confirmable townies.)
After taking a look at your list CC, one thing keeps coming to mind. . . turtles. Do we really believe the claim that characters from TMNT are in the Sin City mafia game?
I would be willing to go along with a plan to go after an unknown because at this point, the chances of hitting a mafia are pretty good. The chances, if I hit a mafia, of hitting one of the players on the list are decent. It's not the best for me, but it is the best for the town.
@JCS- sorry, I DID miss that. It just felt like you and Raf were trying to tag team me to death as quickly as possible.
@Raf- Until last night, I was under the impression that if a person was targetted by more than one other person, I would have to choose blindly which one to kill or let them both go. Now I know that I get descriptions of the players involved and a brief scene as to what they do to my target. I didn't want to accidentally kill the doc (who I figured would be protecting the cop). Make more sense now?
DM, from now on, you should declare your targets. You may not be able to make another kill this way, but it is the safest thing for the town, in case you are lying.
See, if you're lying scum, then by declaring that you will protect someone, we can be rather sure that player will be alive tomorrow. If the mafia wants to kill them, they're either trading 1 for 1, or exposing you as a liar. Thus, our worst case scenario would be that you yourself show up as a dead townie tomorrow, in which case the mafia have dealt with a suspect for us, and the player you target is still safe.
Any objections?
(This thread is taking forever to re-read, but I'll be outing scum soon enough :wink:)
DM, from now on, you should declare your targets. You may not be able to make another kill this way, but it is the safest thing for the town, in case you are lying.
See, if you're lying scum, then by declaring that you will protect someone, we can be rather sure that player will be alive tomorrow. If the mafia wants to kill them, they're either trading 1 for 1, or exposing you as a liar. Thus, our worst case scenario would be that you yourself show up as a dead townie tomorrow, in which case the mafia have dealt with a suspect for us, and the player you target is still safe.
Any objections?
(This thread is taking forever to re-read, but I'll be outing scum soon enough :wink:)
So you want to keep one player safe at the expense of possibly killing a scum?
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@JC: There are other scum out there. DM may be scum, but I really don't think he is the most likely canidate. Hence, I'm not voting for him right now.
The point is, if he is scum, then we're essentially making a deal with the mafia. We get an extra doc protect, and you get to keep your buddy. Or if DM is town, he affectivly plays the part of a standard bodygaurd. The mafia must kill him first, before they can get to whatever role we wish to protect.
I'm pretty sure that I can clear CF, but I'll need him to confirm that he does not have a role name, but rather just a title.
Its pretty much a given that I'm dead tonight. The only thing I had going for me was that the town was still suspicious enough that the scum might have left me alive hoping to get you guys to lynch me, but I'm pretty sure they would have to be retarded to leave me alive.
So, CP outing fade is the strongest evidence of townieness we have. MatJoe next, despite giving us misleading info about Az. (he's proved he's a Cop, and if fade was the "false" Cop., then MatJoe should be for real--safeclaims or no safe claims. Chamber's claim is pretty confirmed. And I tend to believe LJustus, though I still fear he's got at least one townie on his Hit List.
After that group of "pretty likely not mafias" there's people who have been doing good analysis (of which I am not one this game). CropCircles is tops here.
Of which there's probably at least 3 mafia. Normally in a 23 person game you'd think 5 or even 6, but with all the neutral roles, including possible switchers, and possible neutrals who need to kill townies, I'm thinking 4 to start.
Raf. and Highroller have claimed to be from TMNT, which is still really weird. Raf. was also a Mason pair with a townie. DM has claimed Miho, townie of vengence. WoLG has claimed a posting restriction, and I can't remember if he claimed anything else to go with it.
I don't know why Crop has got Aurrorasparrow, Raf. and DM in his mostly cleared group. I will acknowledge he's been more on the ball than me this game. If he's right about that, and I'm not mafia, and I'm right about LJ then the mafia is in this group:
And it would probably be 3 out of those 5. But I'm less sure about those 3 above that Crop named as being probably clear, and no one else has particular reason to be more sure of me. That's the group I'd say LJustus should fire into, however, if he was going to fire.
Okay, and I missed the thing about clearing CF. That would be nice if you could do it.
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
DM, because last nights death scene and his claimed role shows no holes. Also, I just re-read Hawk's death scene, and it implies that the killer is male. Hence, not Miho.
Come to think of it, wouldn't killing with claws fit Shredder? Is there a chance that he our daykiller, and he's imitating other roles? I wouldn't put poisoning past him, and HR has stated that it is unlike anyone in Sin City.
@Raf- Until last night, I was under the impression that if a person was targetted by more than one other person, I would have to choose blindly which one to kill or let them both go. Now I know that I get descriptions of the players involved and a brief scene as to what they do to my target. I didn't want to accidentally kill the doc (who I figured would be protecting the cop). Make more sense now?
Well, you never mentioned it before and it's sooooo convenient the way that a misunderstanding prevented you guarding the cop before but suddenly won't get in your way now. That's what I don't like about your entire claim, everything is complicated and exactly tailored to be sooooo convenient for the situation.
Or to put it another way, I think you're making it up as you go along. I just can't prove it yet.
Having seen the movie last night, I'm not sure why Miho is guarding random people nor why she would be letting them die before taking revenge. Miho seemed to be pretty damn good at keeping her allies alive, in fact.
Let's put this one another way too. I don't believe you're Miho.
I still want that list of names from LJustus. If he thinks they're the mafia, great, why shouldn't we know their rolenames? Might tell us what we can expect from them. Even if he thinks one is town, it doesn't reveal who that person is but it might well confirm them when they claim (if they aren't counterclaimed, anyway).
Well, if he honestly believes they're all mafia, and we believe him, then the best way to make use of them is to mass nameclaim.
However, I don't trust him, and I don't think that we can guarantee that they're all mafia anyway. Not only does that not make sense from a game design standpoint, but not from a flavor standpoint either. Why would there be a neutral who can only win if he destroys half the mafia? Why would a hired gun be hired to fire into a crowd, presumably by said crowd? It doesn't make sense.
I guess if he's willing to just kill who we tell him to, and forget his own WC, then whatever. It's not like we get rolenames after death anyway. But I don't think he's trustworthy.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
23 players (24 if Azrael counts) and only 4 mafia?
Naturally my cleared group wouldn't include you, so if we were encouraging random fire I would say 4 (maybe 5, but with the amount of neutrals and the potential convert if one of chamber/SG was lynched, that could be too many) out of
I am worried by this:
Is there a basis for your suspicion? If you're right, your role seems unbalanced in favor of the town, which makes me suspicious of the claim. The other thing that makes me suspicious is that this would be the 5th neutral in this game. (chamber, sg, Puzz, Kevin, and LJ)
Obviously, we are going to want those names at some point, but we can discuss the issue a bit before holding you at gunpoint.
Is there any way you can prove you're not Kevin?
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@DM - Personally, I believe that you're Miho, but I don't think that clears you. As for setting up a false claim of bodyguard, it doesn't seem that extreme. You could just say "Guess I protected the wrong person!" every single night.
Is there any reason for your vote on Raf besides the fact that he's voting you?
I'm sure Azrael is proud of himself.
Sorry to cause you undue concern.
Well, I haven't seen the movie, but I read the wiki for Sin City. The other names on my list don't seem like very nice people according to that source. I assumed that they were the mafia due to flavor.
There's no need to be suspicious of the fact that I'm 'neutral'. That information is not in dispute and was provided by our cop.
Obviously. I don't believe now is the proper time though.
No, there really isn't a way that I'm aware of. I guess you could lynch me to be certain, but I don't think that would do the town any good.
I also believe the claim of Miho. If there was another Miho, I'm sure he/she would have stepped forward to counter-claim it by now.
In mid-sentence, Fadeblue fall to the floor, and starts twitching. His tongue lolls out, and his eyes go bug-eyed. The paper bag drains its contents onto the carpet in a stream of dirty brown foam.
Someone pokes him with a foot. He doesn't move. Blood trickles out the side of his mouth.
You waste no time in digging through his pockets for valuables.
Let's see...$2000 cash, several major credit cards, a police badge, standard-issue Beretta, and...hello. An envelope, already opened, with a letter inside:
"To FB.
It's time. The mayor and your superiors have been dealt with. Take your men into Old Town and remove anyone who resists. Assume control of the property and their various enterprises, and reroute the profits to the primary dropoff point. If you succeed, you will be well rewarded. If you fail...
...you know the price of failure by now. Get the job done.
Signed,
WQ."
Now isn't that interesting.
Carrion Pigeons steps forward, grinning proudly. "Gentlemen, I believe we've netted our first scum."
Living 14/23:
1. JCSuperstar
2. RafaelK
3. Ljustus
4. Cropcircles
5. Carrion Pigeons
6. Aurorasparrow
7. Highroller
8. Axelrod
9. Draygn Mage
10. WellofLost Gnomes
11. Crippled_Fist
12. Matjoeman
13. Chamber
14. Rhinocero (replacing Einsteinmonkey)
Dead:
1. DYH-Townie Lunatic/Roleblocker/Investigator. Slashed to ribbons on Day One.
2. Kenji-Townie Paranoid. Died of a sudden heart attack day one. (Modkill)
3. Puzzle- Neutral Pacifist. Lynched by the town day one.
4. Bateleur-Townie, the Doctor's Daugher. Throat slashed night two.
5. Hawkeye7-Townie Bodyguard. Sliced and diced by ninja stars day 2.
6. Armlx-Townie Mailman. Lynched by the town day 2.
7. Fayul- Townie, Overzealous Vigilante. Turned into a pez dispenser, night 3.
8. Sorryguy-Townie, Neutral Mason. Throat crushed night 3.
9. Fadeblue-Mafia, False Cop, Mafia Leader. Poisoned day 3.
MIA:
1. Dwight McCarthy-Townie Mod Persona. Chased out of town, shot, and possibly killed, day 2.
***
Official Vote Count:
3 Draygn_Mage- WoLG, Rafaelk, Rhinocero
1 Cropcircles-LJustus
1 JCSuperstar-Jcsuperstar
1 Ljustus-Chamber
1 Rafaelk-Draygn_mage
1 WoLG-Highroller
6 Not Voting: Aurorasparrow, Axelrod, Carrion Pigeons, Cropcircles, Crippled_Fist, Matjoeman
8 to lynch.
I think this takes the pressure off DM, for the moment.
WQ = Wallenquist
3 days and 3 daykills. Is it possible these were all done by the same person, despite the different kill methods?
_________________________________________________________
I'm not disputing the fact that you're neutral. But if you're NOT kevin, that makes 5 neutrals, which is rather high. If you ARE kevin, that makes only 4 neutrals.
Yep.
Possible, yes. Likely. . . I have no idea.
Yeah, it took me a minute or two after I posted to figure that out. Like I said before though, there's only one way to test the validity of my claim. Well, the other option is not one that I would entertain due to my limited supply of bullets. I can't afford to go killing people for no reason.
About the kill, well, hmm. We've had a kill with Kevin seeming the likely culprit, one with Miho seeming the likely culprit, and now a poisoning, maybe? Is that in flavor with anyone from SC?
As to our choice of a kill now, D_M is still possible, though I'm now most interested in LJ. Just because fade was mafia doesn't mean D_M didn't do the kill, which was why I was starting to become a little hesitant on fade anyway. Happily the daykiller dealt with the issue for us.
As for LJ, the main suspicion is 1)that the cops investigation gives us no rerason to think he's pro-town, and 2)that his claim is a killing ability. How many killing roles do we have? And even if we believe him about his ability, we can't guarantee the truthfulness of his win condition; for all we know, he would win by himself, like Puzzle would have in WD2.
Given that the pressure vs. mafia is significantly lower since we didn't have to use a lynch to kill fade, I'd think our best bet would be to go after the potential SK.
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I know this is a huge WIFOM, but would I have claimed a kill ability if I were the SK? That would take balls the size of church bells.
But, the more I think about it, it is possible all the kills come from the same person, who would likely be a SK type role. They may have realized, however, that the mafia were running away with this and they had to stop killing townies and get a scum if they themselves wanted a chance to win. The fact we have all these different methods lends credence to this, as it seems quite unlikely we have three separate day-killers, even if they were all "one-shot" daykillers.
LJustus: while I tend to believe the claim, what I have a harder time with is the idea that all the people on your list would be mafia. That would make you basically a townie vig., because you'd win with the town no matter what. So why are you "Neutral?"
I'm betting there are names on your list that aren't mafia. In fact, if Wallenquist was one of them, and Kevin is another, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the third was a townie.
lets assume LJ is either SK or his claimed role.
If LJ is his claimed role, he unloads a few on the mafia/sk tonight. He gets confirmed, and the town probably comes out ahead. Either that or the mafia kills him, which saves us a lynch.
If LJ is SK, he can't win. However, the mafia can't gamble on the chance he might have this ability. Theres a good chance theyll have to kill him. Even if they don't, the town lynches him and we are unlikely to come out losing.
I was already pretty suspicious of Rhino, and the mafia's ability to talk during the day allows them to coordinate their attacks and defenses. I definitely don't trust him.
vote rhino
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Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Or the mafia might leave him alive because they know that, come the next day, everyone's going to be like, "Hey, why is LJustus still alive? Let's lynch him!" This is especially true if they share your belief that LJustus can't win anyway.
If we believe someone's guilty, it would be best we act accordingly and lynch them. Especially someone with the potential of killing innocent people and removing whatever gain we have received with the death of fadeblue.
Actually, Hartigan is framed by the Rourkes as a pedophile, so even he can come off as disreputable. The only perfectly innocent one is Nancy.
It would be either that or we have three killing roles, which is extremely unlikely.
Not that I remember. Pretty much everyone in Sin City who is skilled in killing does so by force. Physical combat, bladed weapons, hit-and-run accidents, grenades and guns are the preferred methods of killing. I don't think I remember anyone dying as a result of poison.
Personally, I think the means of death are a red herring, and that there's only one daykiller.
You don't really know much of anything then, do you?
First off, you're looking for a disreputable character in Sin City? Great hint. That's like saying your win condition is to shoot the black and white penguin in Antarctica. It doesn't rule out ANYONE except Nancy. Hell, even the postal workers have trust issues, what does that tell you?
Unvote, vote LJustus. I can't say I trust you at all, but this is primarily to apply pressure to get questions answered. First off, you say the other two names you assume are mafia. I take it you don't have names of people, merely names of characters. What are those names?
What bothers me most is that LJustus claimed hired gun. Memory serves correctly, the hired guns work for the mob in Sin City.
Second of all, I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to win if he was SK. Care to explain?
Third of all, what comprehensible advantage is there to waiting a day to kill someone we suspect when we have very little in the way of other good targets? Either we trust him or we don't.
If we trust him, we probably ought to name claim. If we don't, we ought to lynch him. Just letting him live another night is unproductive to either goal.
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Before you spark another townie killing spree, I missed the bit where LJ knows who the scum are to actually unload on. LJ, if we asked you to prove yourself tonight, do you actually know where to start?
I think you should tell us the names you have, and if you're telling the truth you give the town some information on the people we're looking for. For example, if you confirm Shredder's in the game, that certainly makes things interesting for dm. Not to mention that we can ultimately confirm you (or not) by seeing if the descriptions of the dead scum match up with your ideas.
I don't see where it can hurt us for you to spill those names, in fact.
Oh, and concur that the likelihood is that the daykiller chooses their kill method and it's only one person (which is bad for LJustus, since it suggests Kevin isn't really here). Given the attempt to kill matjoe and the kill on fade, it must be an SK.
Now that we've had a claim from LJ, I don't mind now saying that LJustus was in fact the person I watched last night who didn't receive a PM. So he didn't use a night action last night, anyway.
Maybe, we could make his role useful without it though.
Unless Az was trying to be really weird, I think we probably have a day killer with a bevy of MOs. Wait... Could the mafia be the day killers, and the SK be the night killer? That would make sense if Kevin and Miho were both on the mafia. Which doesn't make sense. ugh
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
The mafia might leave him alive, but then they're risking their lives if he's not SK. Also, if he confirms himself the town won't lynch him.
You guys are still looking at the picture incorrectly. Neutral isn't anti-town, neutral is NEUTRAL. The chance that he harms us is almost the same as the chance he harms mafia.
We need to hit mafia. When we are so close to losing, it is more important that we hit mafia than the SK.
Anybody who sees this as evidence should also give Miho townie points.
proof that he has nightkills would be good enough proof for me. the presence of an extra kill proves hes not SK. see below.
Either the mafia will kill him or the town will lynch him. Theres no hiding left for him.
Because by waiting a day, he can potentially clear himself.
He did name claim; he is a neutral: hired gun.
You guys are still stuck in this assumption that we must kill people we dont trust immediately. The mafia are a higher priority.
the presence of an extra kill should do it. As for hitting scum, the following people are pretty much clear:
2. RafaelK
12. Matjoeman
13. Chamber
6. Aurorasparrow
In my opinion, the following are also clear:
9. Draygn Mage (Miho cant be bad!)
7. Highroller (newspaper; flimsy, but I believe it)
If LJ decides to kill, he obviously wont kill himself. That leaves 4 mafia and an SK out of 7 or 8 people, both a >50% chance:
1. JCSuperstar
4. Cropcircles
5. Carrion Pigeons
8. Axelrod
10. WellofLost Gnomes
11. Crippled_Fist
14. Rhinocero (kill this one)
In addition, if we lynch one of these people and they are townie his percentage goes up.
So if we dont lynch him, it works like this:
If LJ is truthful and the mafia dont kill him, he confirms himself by nightkill and has >50% chance of offing scum.
If LJ is truthful and the mafia kill him, we save ourselves a lynch.
If LJ is lying and the mafia don't kill him, we lynch him. His kill is about as likely to hit townie as it is to hit mafia. I think he might even favor killing mafia to lengthen the game.
If LJ is lying and the mafia kill him, we save ourselves a lynch AND the mafia uses up their kill.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
Killing someone will not confirm him. All it will prove is that he's capable of making a self-consistent false-claim.
Neutral IS anti-town, unless they win with the town, which for some reason, seems to occasionally be the case in this particular game. AWC's are always harmful to the town.
How? We know absolutely nothing about the SK except that he exists. We certainly can't guarantee that he's a daykiller alone.
Ah. So you propose a game of chicken. As a general rule, mafia win those, simply based on proportion.
Not by killing someone, he can't.
I actually meant a mass claim, to make use of his marvelous role. We ought to be able to catch 3 scum straight out the gate, right? Seems a little overpowered to me, but whatever.
I choose my lynhes based on who I believe to be lying, or at least who I believe I have reason to trust. It's terrible strategy to lynch people we don't know anything about just because a suspicious player claimed a pro-town role.
I'll grant that this game is full of suspicious rolelcaims and the like, but I refuse to just let people slide for no better reason than because they can come up with an unprovable, purportedly pro-town role. That kind of thinking gets the town dead in a hurry.
With the exception of HR, I'm willing to accept this. We have no reason to believe the paper is anything good for us.
That assumes that LJustus is even able to kill someone not on his list, and that all of the people on his list are mafia, and that we aren't making any mistakes in our assumptions about cleared players. Taking all that into account, it's probably closer to a <20% chance, if that. Even then, it hardly clears him.
1) Won't happen, ever.
2) Unlikely. Mafia have very little reason to go after him, since even if he's telling the truth, he still hurts the town by his existence, since he has the mafia WC by his own admission.
3) Are you being thick on purpose? He has no way of knowing the difference. Regardless, we gain no net advantage from this that we could anticipate.
4) This is the only positive point, but it's an argument for it never happening. This is exactly the reason the mafia don't want to kill him, and why we do.
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I can't agree with this. Getting the SK means one more of us gets to live each day. The SK is far more likely to hit townies than mafia.
I'll agree with this. If we can agree on a nighttime target for LJ, that would pretty much clear him of being SK. Unless we somehow had an SK that could nightkill AND daykill.
You don't think Carrion is clear? He's the one who provided evidence against Fade. Also, I disagree about DM and HR.
So basically, you're arguing that LJ should fire randomly at a non-cleared player tonight? We should be able to do better than that. If we want to test LJustus's nightkill, we should decide on a target.
About Rhino: He took Fade's side, which is definitely a point against him. But what is the case aside from that? Can AS or chamber put together a list of evidence?
so he's a mafia/sk that can kill additional people yet hasn't? a mafia with extra kills could have ended the game by now.
our objective is to kill the scum, not the scum and neutrals. and as he said, he can win with the town.
so you think that the SK can kill at day AND night? If so, why has he failed to do so before now? Also, the lack of an SK daykill would show up. If he was SK the cover would fail. Or we could somewhat control him, or lynch him.
Were not playing this game against the mafia. All im saying that the SK knows he will die one way or the other.
1) hes not sure all the people on his list are bad.
2) what mafia would name their ACTUAL rolenames? Roark, Manute, etc are obvious scum names.
Just because a suspicious player claimed a pro-town role doesnt make him mafia. And I can't believe you think the scum would have additional nightkill abilities.
The only assumption that might be bad is him failing to kill people not on his list. Otherwise, the list is pretty irrelevant as he's at our mercy.
You really think that any of the cleared people aren't? Even in that case, theres a cool 35% chance of hitting scum with random shots.
why?
no he doesnt. his win condition is to kill select people, at least two of which are anti-town. he's more town than not. right now hes as powerful as a vigilante.
35% with random shots. theres no net advantage, which means that the other options are the relevant ones.
except he could be telling the truth.
at this point in the game, slightly.
if he's the SK and we get him, we just removed a major obstacle to the mafia winning.
if he's not the SK and we get him, we might as well forfeit.
yes, that seems highly unlikely to me.
he did? well, I definitely think DM is innocent. It should still be >50% no matter what one believes.
I don't think so. the mafia can talk to each other, and theres a great chance they can steer the target away from themselves.
he hasn't been contributing or speculating much. I'll se what I can do about concrete stuff.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
But definitely remove carrion from your random kill list, no-one was on fade until cp claimed roleblocker and said he'd blocked fade last night when there was apparently no mafia kill. I think he's more cleared than HR at this point. There's distancing maneuvers and then there's actively trying to get someone killed.
Still want Ljustus to give the names. If he knows the scum rolenames, that's something. At the least, we'll see if they're all Sin City people or not.
Oh, and I'm planning on seeing the movie at an outdoor cinema tonight, so whoo me
because he replaced Einsteinmonkey, Rhino only has been present for the last 350 posts. He has made 12 of these posts compared to an average of 350/19 = 18.4 posts. In only 2 of his posts has he really said anything relevant, and most of his posts are under 4 lines. The only ones longer than 4 are when he decides to vote somebody.
I will post a link to his posts.
rhino's posts
but really, the greatest evidence are these quotes when taken into account of how little he has been posting otherwise.
4th place at CCC&G Pro Tour
Chances of bad hands (<2 or >4 land):
21: 28.9%
22: 27.5%
23: 26.3%
24: 25.5%
25: 25.1%
26: 25.3%
He would win with the mafia, but that doesn't mean he has the mafia win condition, so the mafia would't have it any easier with him alive. They have to outnumber the town including him. At least that's what I got from it.
Scum normally means mafia+neutrals. In this game I will define it as scum+neutrals whose goals conflict with the town's. I've never heard of a game where the town won with the SK alive.
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
firstly, unvote: dragyn_mage in light of Fadeblue's scumitude.
I was suspicious of Dragyn_Mage, I admit it. Why I felt that the town-kill was suspicious was because it seemed like he was trying to pass off a scum (prob. sk) move as a townie move (like I tried and failed miserably to do in Random 2). I also thought the daykill of Matjoeman by someone who supposedly had the same kill method as Miho supposedly does. (I guess this is what I should do more of =/) Note that I was by no means NOT suspicious of Fade - I did note several things. I was merely more suspicious of DM at that point.
@LJustus - I see your plan, Aurorasparrow (although I didn't at first). Basically, if he's part of hte nightkilling group, we're missing a kill tomorrow. Of course, it's possible that it could be messed up if he's truthful or if he's a liar. If he's telling the truth, the mafia could hold back and mess us all up. Either way, roleblocking of mafia or of him by a potential mafia 'blocker (or just the claim thereof if he's mafia) will screw things up big time. Furethermore, I'm not sure that the odds merit such a sacrifice, especially as we don't know if his third listee is even mafia. so I really don't think this is a good plan - too high odds of failing, and of sacrificing a townie.
3 Draygn_Mage- WoLG, Rafaelk, Matjoeman
2 Rhinocero- Aurorasparrow, Chamber
1 Cropcircles-LJustus
1 JCSuperstar-Jcsuperstar
1 LJustus-Highroller
1 Rafaelk-Draygn_mage
5 Not Voting: Axelrod, Carrion Pigeons, Cropcircles, Crippled_Fist, Rhinocero
8 to lynch.
What's one got to do with the other?
I'm sure AS would disagree, but personally I'm not suspicious of you for being suspicious of DM. Lurkertude except to add momentum to existing bandwagons, plus your support of fade is the suspicious thing here. Mafia often act a BIT suspicious of each other but then try to go hit on someone else. Your eagerness to abandon the bandwagon the moment someone pressures you is much more scummy (and makes me feel perhaps that if you're a scum, DM actually isn't. We'll see.)
AS: Okay, I'm officially sick of quoting you piece by piece. I'll try to respond to your points tomorrow sometime. I'm going to bed.
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It's still possible that dm actually did the kill and fade being blocked was actually unconnected (in which case wow, he got unlucky), but I'm willing to acknowledge the unlikelihood of this. I still wish dm would mention why he didn't consider bodyguarding the claimed cop, seeing as he hasn't answered that yet.
unvote then, but with a fos draygn still there for the future should draygn continue to survive.
-[thread=14456]The [Untitled] Avatar and Sig shop![/thread] Avatar from:[thread=25376] [Epic Graphics][/thread]
Awards:
Elegant Mafia: The Joker, Mafia MVP
in post #1134, before you said this:
I don't see you as being cleared, but the fact that Fade is mafia provides a reasonable story for why there was no mafia kill. Therefore, I'm willing to leave you alone for now. Maybe you can even kill some scum for us.
I'm not entirely convinced by the Rhino bandwagon, but I'll agree he looks a little suspect.
I'll also point out that Crippled_Fist has been lurking like a swamp thing.
As it turns out, DM, I've been working on a complete re-read of the thread, and was planning on posting my results shortly. I got sidetracked, and I have class today, but I should still have a couple reasonable cases for us to review tonight(IRL).
As it stands, I'd say that the probable townies would be(in order):
CropCircles(if I need to claim to prove this, I'm willing to do that at any point)
Carrion Pigeons
Matjoeman
Aurorasparrow
RafaelK
Draygn Mage
Chamber
Of the remaining players, I'm currently of the idea that Crippled_Fist is town. I'll explain my reasoning on this when I have time to look it up in my notes.
That leaves(also in order):
LJustus
Rhinocero
JCSuperstar
Highroller
Axelrod
WellofLostGnomes
...in which my scumdar leaves Axelrod and WoLG interchangable. I'm convinced that Rhino is mafia and I'd venture to guess that JC is too. The LJ situation is weird, and I think I might be able to get behind a plan that involves him shooting an unconfirmed. I'll present full cases tonight.
(Note: No one should be killed without the chance to prove their innocence. There's no point in offing potentially confirmable townies.)
[The Family]
I would be willing to go along with a plan to go after an unknown because at this point, the chances of hitting a mafia are pretty good. The chances, if I hit a mafia, of hitting one of the players on the list are decent. It's not the best for me, but it is the best for the town.
@Raf- Until last night, I was under the impression that if a person was targetted by more than one other person, I would have to choose blindly which one to kill or let them both go. Now I know that I get descriptions of the players involved and a brief scene as to what they do to my target. I didn't want to accidentally kill the doc (who I figured would be protecting the cop). Make more sense now?
See, if you're lying scum, then by declaring that you will protect someone, we can be rather sure that player will be alive tomorrow. If the mafia wants to kill them, they're either trading 1 for 1, or exposing you as a liar. Thus, our worst case scenario would be that you yourself show up as a dead townie tomorrow, in which case the mafia have dealt with a suspect for us, and the player you target is still safe.
Any objections?
(This thread is taking forever to re-read, but I'll be outing scum soon enough :wink:)
[The Family]
So you want to keep one player safe at the expense of possibly killing a scum?
Fixed.
The point is, if he is scum, then we're essentially making a deal with the mafia. We get an extra doc protect, and you get to keep your buddy. Or if DM is town, he affectivly plays the part of a standard bodygaurd. The mafia must kill him first, before they can get to whatever role we wish to protect.
I'm pretty sure that I can clear CF, but I'll need him to confirm that he does not have a role name, but rather just a title.
[The Family]
Unvote: DM
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
After that group of "pretty likely not mafias" there's people who have been doing good analysis (of which I am not one this game). CropCircles is tops here.
That leaves this group:
1. JCSuperstar
2. RafaelK
6. Aurorasparrow
7. Highroller
8. Axelrod
9. Draygn Mage
10. WellofLost Gnomes
11. Crippled_Fist
14. Rhinocero (replacing Einsteinmonkey)
Of which there's probably at least 3 mafia. Normally in a 23 person game you'd think 5 or even 6, but with all the neutral roles, including possible switchers, and possible neutrals who need to kill townies, I'm thinking 4 to start.
Raf. and Highroller have claimed to be from TMNT, which is still really weird. Raf. was also a Mason pair with a townie. DM has claimed Miho, townie of vengence. WoLG has claimed a posting restriction, and I can't remember if he claimed anything else to go with it.
I don't know why Crop has got Aurrorasparrow, Raf. and DM in his mostly cleared group. I will acknowledge he's been more on the ball than me this game. If he's right about that, and I'm not mafia, and I'm right about LJ then the mafia is in this group:
1. JCSuperstar
7. Highroller
10. WellofLost Gnomes
11. Crippled_Fist
14. Rhinocero (replacing Einsteinmonkey)
And it would probably be 3 out of those 5. But I'm less sure about those 3 above that Crop named as being probably clear, and no one else has particular reason to be more sure of me. That's the group I'd say LJustus should fire into, however, if he was going to fire.
Okay, and I missed the thing about clearing CF. That would be nice if you could do it.
AS because he was cop cleared by Matjoe.
DM, because last nights death scene and his claimed role shows no holes. Also, I just re-read Hawk's death scene, and it implies that the killer is male. Hence, not Miho.
Come to think of it, wouldn't killing with claws fit Shredder? Is there a chance that he our daykiller, and he's imitating other roles? I wouldn't put poisoning past him, and HR has stated that it is unlike anyone in Sin City.
[The Family]
Perhaps because As was cleared by mat...
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
Well, you never mentioned it before and it's sooooo convenient the way that a misunderstanding prevented you guarding the cop before but suddenly won't get in your way now. That's what I don't like about your entire claim, everything is complicated and exactly tailored to be sooooo convenient for the situation.
Or to put it another way, I think you're making it up as you go along. I just can't prove it yet.
Having seen the movie last night, I'm not sure why Miho is guarding random people nor why she would be letting them die before taking revenge. Miho seemed to be pretty damn good at keeping her allies alive, in fact.
Let's put this one another way too. I don't believe you're Miho.
I still want that list of names from LJustus. If he thinks they're the mafia, great, why shouldn't we know their rolenames? Might tell us what we can expect from them. Even if he thinks one is town, it doesn't reveal who that person is but it might well confirm them when they claim (if they aren't counterclaimed, anyway).
However, I don't trust him, and I don't think that we can guarantee that they're all mafia anyway. Not only does that not make sense from a game design standpoint, but not from a flavor standpoint either. Why would there be a neutral who can only win if he destroys half the mafia? Why would a hired gun be hired to fire into a crowd, presumably by said crowd? It doesn't make sense.
I guess if he's willing to just kill who we tell him to, and forget his own WC, then whatever. It's not like we get rolenames after death anyway. But I don't think he's trustworthy.
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23 players (24 if Azrael counts) and only 4 mafia?
Naturally my cleared group wouldn't include you, so if we were encouraging random fire I would say 4 (maybe 5, but with the amount of neutrals and the potential convert if one of chamber/SG was lynched, that could be too many) out of
1. JCSuperstar
7. Highroller
10. WellofLost Gnomes
11. Crippled_Fist
14. Rhinocero (replacing Einsteinmonkey)
Axelrod
LJustus
Draygn
which is still 50/50.