So I tried to make myself a huge target and then Vold comes in and protects me (lol) and IB makes a really dumb kill choice. Maybe there's a roleblocker and maybe there's another scum. We'll find out soon.
...but there is a restriction to my ability: I'm only a 2-shot dayvig.
Only one kill last night plus the above reveal makes me have to believe Voxx is town until there's no other option.
As for tonight, uh....
Void - Protect either Swishh or Rhand. Don't make it public who you protect.
Swishh - Abilitycop Voxx
Rhand - Track Dan
Seppel - Look pretty. (Dayvig)
Eron - Look pretty. (Attacked by scum.)
JeY - Look pretty. (Attacked by scum.)
Tom - Look pretty. (Double-voter)
Rick/Megs - Look pretty. (Appears to be town.)
Voxx - Look pretty. (1-shot Vig.)
Dan - Look pretty. (Meh)
...yeah.
If we haven't already won, it's just a matter of going through the motions and lynching up the line.
Okay, so either there is no SK or the both the SK and the Mafia Team targeted Seppel last Night since I protected him. My Doc ability went Super Saiyan thanks to a question I asked TCM.
Vote: Rhand
IB is another good option.
Megs
No need to replace out. Just keep using Santorum from this point on.
I was going to make some catch up posts, and post reads and analysis of each player, but after that speed readthrough, I'm just going to dump post numbers with plusses and minuses next to them. I have a solid scum read on kj and LoT, I'm really torn on Tom (basically only leaning town because double voter). Leaning scum on AI and Wessel. Town on Seppel and Rhand. Town on Eron and Voxx.
The mafia in Setup A is overwhelmingly underpowered (barring incredibly bizarre circumstances where one of our claimed power roles turns out to be a mafiate (all of them are either confirmed or dead)).
I'm very confident that we're looking for a final mafiate.
So, if the game doesn't end with an IB lynch, we lynch Voxxicus. If that doesn't end the game, we lynch Seppel. If THAT doesn't end the game... we'll handle that when we get there.
Logic: We had three kills N1. Two were claimed: AI's toughguy shot (confirmed) and Voxxicus's shot. Presumably the third was the scum kill.
IB is almost certainly scum based on behavior and this tracking result by Rhand. I think it's possible that we don't have an SK given that we had only one kill last Night—it matches Voxxicus's story that he's a 1-shot vig. The other possibility is that he is the SK and hit a protect last Night, but that's secondary.
Seppel is the last-ditch effort because a repeatable Day SK is not out of the realm of possibility, if unusual. I don't think we'll get to that point but if we're down to POE it makes sense to take him out. Also, if we get to this point and we're still having Night kills... it's almost certainly not Seppel, so look elsewhere.
Not sure that the town can lose from this position.
I read IB's posts again too, they definitely don't line up very well. I think IB flipping scum might clear Rhand as well, tracker and all. If the game isn't over with IB as scum and SK down, this was probably a well-played bus. Doubt that thought.
On board with killing Voxx. If Void blocked a kill, which if Voxx is SK he'd definitely target Seppel for being very likely to shoot him the following day, then Void would seem pretty cleared to me.
Leaves the question of Rick versus Seppel... I remember proposing earlier that if everyone thought a day vig = automatic town, that would be an easy win for scum (or SK, since I never thought of that possibility). If the game isn't over when IB and Voxx are down, it could be a safe bet to lynch Seppel as well.
As for vote, didn't take count/too lazy to go back so I'll note that I'll vote for IB when everything's decided since I skimmed that there shouldn't be TOO many votes yet?
cram night for me, tough midterm and hw assignment due tomorrow, I even got out of work early just to make sure I had enough time.
Void - JOAT (Copped AI, Doc'd Seppel, still has RB)
Swishh - Backup (Currently Wessel)
Rhand - Tracker (Tracked IB)
Seppel - Dayvig (Killed Tyzmo, killjoy)
Tom - Double-voter
Voxx - 1-shot Vig. (Claimed Anak kill)
Eron - Vanilla
JeY - Vanilla
Rick/Megs - Vanilla
Dan - Vanilla
This is the current game state, right?
If we assume that there is no SK (which seems likely given the balance), then Voxxicus is cleared. We won't need to lynch him or Seppel basically ever.
We don't have infinite time, but between void, rhand, and swishh we can clear three people Tonight and go from there.
Ultimately I think this will come down to POE and behavioral analysis.
@rhand: go ahead and track me or whatever. I agree that my plan was bad, but it makes sense if we assume there is a serial killer rather than a fifth mafioso.
@seppel: jey needs to be examined by somebody Tonight for sure. Dan too. If we clear the vanillas we can open the "ugh" can of examining our PRs for potential scum.
...I guess it just sucks being new to metagame. It seemed like a decent plan to me, so I thought why not. If it's conceived that there's actually no SK... well I have no idea what that changes! It looks to me like everyone thinks there's 1 more proper lynch until victory either way. Unless I'm wrong about that assumption too >_>
I can't argue with being tracked though. Especially if it means I don't end up being cannon fodder after all =).
It's probably the fact that he's been repeatedly saying that 'this is Voxx's town game' for most of the game.
Admittedly, the fact that that, and tunneling into EtR is almost all he's done is a little suspect, especially given that he seems to have dropped the EtR thing with no reasoning.
But yeah, I'm fully caught up now, even if I have to head out for a meeting in about 10 minutes, but wanted to dash off a post before twilight potentially ends.
If we are looking for a 5th mafiate (mafioso?), I think my preference is currently something along the lines of this:
EtR > Ganderin_Dan > Teh_JeY > Tom > Rick > Swishh = Void = Rhand > Seppel
I encourage people to re-read how the EtR and LoT wagon swap happened - I struggle to see the scum motivation in AI's push on LoT, unless EtR was a stronger scum role (blocker? hitman?). My notes from my initial re-read had AI as pretty solidly town unless it was with EtR, and I kind of want to revisit that.
But you can build a reasonable case on Dan or JeY as well, and it's realistically just PoE and finishing it out at this point.
Scum doublevoter possibility kind of scares me. Like, I think he's probably town, but he's less certain town than the Seppel/Swishh/Void/Rhand cluster.
Random thought: I had a super strong town read on Void because people were pushing him over LoT and at weird times.
But like...who all was pushing Void this game? Kill Joy, RobRoy, Rick, Swishh? I don't think any of the scum actually were pushing that which is kind of perplexing.
I don't think it actually /means/anything, but just was a weird quirk of how the game unfolded that occurred to me.
But right. Work meeting. Just wanted to put my thoughts on things out there, but I'd be okay with the following plan:
Bored mostly. This whole day basically came down to night actions of which I can't contribute. There was just about 0 behavior to analyze today. Beside Voxx's recent post.
Previously, once AI was caught it was just a coordination of night actions which again I can't help with. I'd like to see someone looking into Dan or Voxx if I had my choice though.
It seems as though the day just started, when I quiet man named Rhand immediately points the finger at InfectiousBaloth.
"I saw this guy!" He was wondering about at night messing around with our dear friend Robroy!"
As the rest of you turn around, Infectiousbaloth throws a punch at the person closest to him (which happens to be Rick Santorum). The rest of you quickly converge on him. Seppel, reloads his gun, while Void and Swishh hold him down. The last sound that NgoDinh Diem, Mafia Back-up Roleblocker is the bullet that goes straight through his skull.'
IT IS NOW NIGHT 3. You have 72 hours, no exceptions, bar me not being here. -_-.
Ngo Dinh Diem (Mafia Back-up Roleblocker) Lennon, You are Ngo Dinh Diem (3 January 1901 – 2 November 1963)
Before becoming president of South Vietnam, you worked your way up by helping the South capture communists and purged them from the country. As the leader of South Vietnam (albeit for a short time), you handled the South Vietnam army against Ho Chi Minh and the Vietcong. As America’s ally and a country that needed help, you ruled South Vietnam until a military coup claimed your life. You were corrupt, and see this second coming as a chance to reclaim what was rightfully yours.
During the night, you may kill a player. If the roleblocker dies, you will become the roleblocker. You may not roleblock and perform the nightkill at the same time.
As the rest of you break for day 4, ready to bring an end to the day. Some of you feel quite confidant in your ability that the day is at an end, but alas, one of you is again gone. Immediately, a foul smell is recognized by some of you, and as you follow the stench to the source, you find Swishh, who is recognized as Susan B. Anthony, Town Ultimate Back-up lying face-up with a knife sticking out of her left eye. Realizing there are still evil men (and women) around the ten of you, suspiciouns get tight as you return to the main conference room.
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline will be April 7th.
Susan B. Anthony (Town Ultimate Back-up) Swishh, You are Susan B. Anthony (February 15, 1820 – March 13, 1906)
You were one of the first pushers for a woman’s right to suffrage. You were one of the original founders of the National American Woman Suffrage Association (NAWSA). Your stance for the rights of women was tested in a court case against the country, and true to your word, you refused to pay a single cent of that malicious fine your were cited for (United States v. Susan B. Anthony). You are a shining beacon of inspiration to the women who pushed for equality in the mid-20th century.
Abilities: During the day, you may vote for any player. During the night, you may send me the name of a dead player. If that player has a night ability, you shall gain it (1 shot). You cannot use that ability the same night you gain it.
Seppel, Tom, and Voxxicus are all confirmed town now. We know we're up against a scum roleblocker now, which means that none of these three proven PRs can be the last one. There's also definitively no SK at this point, though we had already reached that point.
Either Rhand or Void could be lying. Void's behavior two Days ago was weird. He was on the killjoy wagon, but posted this immediately before Seppel's kill went through. Never unvoted prior to this or suggested not shooting him. He also was not voting or pressuring AI until after the wagon had started, at which point he did eventually reveal his ability and blah blah.
One other thing is that a roleblock makes little sense for a townie to have against the goon/goon/unblockable kill/roleblocker/backup roleblocker scumteam. It's useless against 4/5 of them and creates that weird and inelegant double roleblocker territory with the fifth. This is setup gaming, so watch out, but I think it's a reasonable lead. Void's other two claimed abilities are most likely unconfirmable, though if Seppel got some sort of notice that he was doc'd (and/or if two people got roleblocked last Night*), this is all moot and we can move void into the town column.
Rhand I need to reread. It's possible that he's faking, since IB was certainly getting lynched even without his result Yesterday, but this one is mostly paranoia.
That leaves Eron, Jey, and Dan as our remaining vanillas to look into. Hopefully somebody got some sort of result last Night, but with the roleblocker I doubt it. I don't have much on any of them other than what I jotted during Night about Jey: "too little original thought; many excuses for low content."
So yeah, those with something to claim, claim!
*has anybody gotten notification that they were roleblocked at any point up until now?
Yep, I think it comes down to Jey* Rick Santorum right now, which for me means Jey. PR lying speculation is just that—speculation. Please keep it in mind for if Jey flips town though.
vote jey
I'll consent to being lynched Today if people are less certain on me, though.
vote ib
Not another vote until Seppel gets in here and blows his brains out.
Oh, I see what you're saying. Still a bad play because he'd confirm everyone before the game would end.
Vote IB
So I tried to make myself a huge target and then Vold comes in and protects me (lol) and IB makes a really dumb kill choice. Maybe there's a roleblocker and maybe there's another scum. We'll find out soon.
...but there is a restriction to my ability: I'm only a 2-shot dayvig.
Only one kill last night plus the above reveal makes me have to believe Voxx is town until there's no other option.
As for tonight, uh....
Void - Protect either Swishh or Rhand. Don't make it public who you protect.
Swishh - Abilitycop Voxx
Rhand - Track Dan
Seppel - Look pretty. (Dayvig)
Eron - Look pretty. (Attacked by scum.)
JeY - Look pretty. (Attacked by scum.)
Tom - Look pretty. (Double-voter)
Rick/Megs - Look pretty. (Appears to be town.)
Voxx - Look pretty. (1-shot Vig.)
Dan - Look pretty. (Meh)
...yeah.
If we haven't already won, it's just a matter of going through the motions and lynching up the line.
In that case I'm assuming that means that I was protected from a kill?
It's WIFOM at this point. If you were targetted, then it was Voxx who did so.
Seppel:
Void - Protect either Swishh or Rhand. Don't make it public who you protect.
That is a lynch! Scene will be coming up in a bit. It is now twilight.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Unfortunately, the difference between a 5-man scumteam and a serial killer will be impossible to spot at this point...
I wish this post had any detail in it:
COMPARE THIS (Setup A):
Goon
Goon
Toughguy
Roleblocker
vs
SK
vs
Abilitycop
Doc
Backup
JoaT
2-shot Dayvig
1-shot Nightvig
Neighbor
Tracker
Vanilla
Vanilla
Vanilla
Vanilla
Vanilla
Vanilla
=========================
TO THIS (Setup B):
Goon
Goon
Toughguy
Roleblocker
Something Else
vs
Abilitycop
Doc
Backup
JoaT
2-shot Dayvig
1-shot Nightvig
Neighbor
Tracker
Vanilla
Vanilla
Vanilla
Vanilla
Vanilla
=========================
The mafia in Setup A is overwhelmingly underpowered (barring incredibly bizarre circumstances where one of our claimed power roles turns out to be a mafiate (all of them are either confirmed or dead)).
I'm very confident that we're looking for a final mafiate.
We have to cop or track him tonight for sure.
Shall I track Teh JeY then?
I think Swishh should still cop Voxx to be sure.
Swishh - Backup (Currently Wessel)
Rhand - Tracker (Tracked IB)
Seppel - Dayvig (Killed Tyzmo, killjoy)
Tom - Double-voter
Voxx - 1-shot Vig. (Claimed Anak kill)
Eron - Vanilla
JeY - Vanilla
Rick/Megs - Vanilla
Dan - Vanilla
This is the current game state, right?
If we assume that there is no SK (which seems likely given the balance), then Voxxicus is cleared. We won't need to lynch him or Seppel basically ever.
We don't have infinite time, but between void, rhand, and swishh we can clear three people Tonight and go from there.
Ultimately I think this will come down to POE and behavioral analysis.
@rhand: go ahead and track me or whatever. I agree that my plan was bad, but it makes sense if we assume there is a serial killer rather than a fifth mafioso.
@seppel: jey needs to be examined by somebody Tonight for sure. Dan too. If we clear the vanillas we can open the "ugh" can of examining our PRs for potential scum.
Swishh targets Teh JeY
Void targets Someone
I can't argue with being tracked though. Especially if it means I don't end up being cannon fodder after all =).
¤.†.¤ The OceanLink ¤.†.¤
Would you please elaborate?
Admittedly, the fact that that, and tunneling into EtR is almost all he's done is a little suspect, especially given that he seems to have dropped the EtR thing with no reasoning.
But yeah, I'm fully caught up now, even if I have to head out for a meeting in about 10 minutes, but wanted to dash off a post before twilight potentially ends.
If we are looking for a 5th mafiate (mafioso?), I think my preference is currently something along the lines of this:
EtR > Ganderin_Dan > Teh_JeY > Tom > Rick > Swishh = Void = Rhand > Seppel
I encourage people to re-read how the EtR and LoT wagon swap happened - I struggle to see the scum motivation in AI's push on LoT, unless EtR was a stronger scum role (blocker? hitman?). My notes from my initial re-read had AI as pretty solidly town unless it was with EtR, and I kind of want to revisit that.
But you can build a reasonable case on Dan or JeY as well, and it's realistically just PoE and finishing it out at this point.
Scum doublevoter possibility kind of scares me. Like, I think he's probably town, but he's less certain town than the Seppel/Swishh/Void/Rhand cluster.
Random thought: I had a super strong town read on Void because people were pushing him over LoT and at weird times.
But like...who all was pushing Void this game? Kill Joy, RobRoy, Rick, Swishh? I don't think any of the scum actually were pushing that which is kind of perplexing.
I don't think it actually /means/anything, but just was a weird quirk of how the game unfolded that occurred to me.
But right. Work meeting. Just wanted to put my thoughts on things out there, but I'd be okay with the following plan:
Track: Dan
Rolecop: JeY
Block: EtR
Or any variant of those three, really.
Not with that attitude.
Why have you been so nonexistent ever since AI was caught?
Previously, once AI was caught it was just a coordination of night actions which again I can't help with. I'd like to see someone looking into Dan or Voxx if I had my choice though.
Are you interested at all in reviewing the game to find the last scum?
"I saw this guy!" He was wondering about at night messing around with our dear friend Robroy!"
As the rest of you turn around, Infectiousbaloth throws a punch at the person closest to him (which happens to be Rick Santorum). The rest of you quickly converge on him. Seppel, reloads his gun, while Void and Swishh hold him down. The last sound that NgoDinh Diem, Mafia Back-up Roleblocker is the bullet that goes straight through his skull.'
IT IS NOW NIGHT 3. You have 72 hours, no exceptions, bar me not being here. -_-.
Lennon, You are Ngo Dinh Diem (3 January 1901 – 2 November 1963)
Before becoming president of South Vietnam, you worked your way up by helping the South capture communists and purged them from the country. As the leader of South Vietnam (albeit for a short time), you handled the South Vietnam army against Ho Chi Minh and the Vietcong. As America’s ally and a country that needed help, you ruled South Vietnam until a military coup claimed your life. You were corrupt, and see this second coming as a chance to reclaim what was rightfully yours.
During the night, you may kill a player. If the roleblocker dies, you will become the roleblocker. You may not roleblock and perform the nightkill at the same time.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline will be April 7th.
Susan B. Anthony (Town Ultimate Back-up)
Swishh, You are Susan B. Anthony (February 15, 1820 – March 13, 1906)
You were one of the first pushers for a woman’s right to suffrage. You were one of the original founders of the National American Woman Suffrage Association (NAWSA). Your stance for the rights of women was tested in a court case against the country, and true to your word, you refused to pay a single cent of that malicious fine your were cited for (United States v. Susan B. Anthony). You are a shining beacon of inspiration to the women who pushed for equality in the mid-20th century.
Abilities: During the day, you may vote for any player. During the night, you may send me the name of a dead player. If that player has a night ability, you shall gain it (1 shot). You cannot use that ability the same night you gain it.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Seppel, Tom, and Voxxicus are all confirmed town now. We know we're up against a scum roleblocker now, which means that none of these three proven PRs can be the last one. There's also definitively no SK at this point, though we had already reached that point.
Either Rhand or Void could be lying. Void's behavior two Days ago was weird. He was on the killjoy wagon, but posted this immediately before Seppel's kill went through. Never unvoted prior to this or suggested not shooting him. He also was not voting or pressuring AI until after the wagon had started, at which point he did eventually reveal his ability and blah blah.
One other thing is that a roleblock makes little sense for a townie to have against the goon/goon/unblockable kill/roleblocker/backup roleblocker scumteam. It's useless against 4/5 of them and creates that weird and inelegant double roleblocker territory with the fifth. This is setup gaming, so watch out, but I think it's a reasonable lead. Void's other two claimed abilities are most likely unconfirmable, though if Seppel got some sort of notice that he was doc'd (and/or if two people got roleblocked last Night*), this is all moot and we can move void into the town column.
Rhand I need to reread. It's possible that he's faking, since IB was certainly getting lynched even without his result Yesterday, but this one is mostly paranoia.
That leaves Eron, Jey, and Dan as our remaining vanillas to look into. Hopefully somebody got some sort of result last Night, but with the roleblocker I doubt it. I don't have much on any of them other than what I jotted during Night about Jey: "too little original thought; many excuses for low content."
So yeah, those with something to claim, claim!
*has anybody gotten notification that they were roleblocked at any point up until now?
Vote: Teh JeY
It's the target swishh was investigating last Night according to our plans. I know it's WIFOM, but this is PoE.
neither of you were roleblocked, then?
.......
Most reviewers won't allow this because the last Mafioso would be able to self-confirm himself. It's a balancing issue.
Seppel - 100% Dayvig (Caught Tzymo)
Tom - 100% Double-voter
Voxx - 100% Vig
Dan - 100% confirmed (took no night action last night via Rhand)
Void - 100% JoaT (Caught AI)
Rhand - 100% Tracker (Caught IB)
Eron - 99% town (Was pushed opposing LoT)
Rick/Megs - ???
JeY - ???
So for me it's just a formality of lynching Rick and JeY.
I'm okay with a lynch on either.
Are we 100% sure that there's only 1 more bad guy out there?
However, if Rhand doesn't die tonight, then he will PoE himself out before the game is over, which still gives us enough of a PoE gap to win.
Whoever is the last scum, however, you did the best job out of everyone on your team, since we can't easily figure out who you are.
Going through the motions.
Vote JeY
Yep, I think it comes down to Jey* Rick Santorum right now, which for me means Jey. PR lying speculation is just that—speculation. Please keep it in mind for if Jey flips town though.
vote jey
I'll consent to being lynched Today if people are less certain on me, though.
Yes.
Otherwise you would have been blocked.