Nis gets wagoned early after his 'neutral hunting' and backpedal off it, and then the DRey wagon springs up, speared by dC and Kpaca. Who is now RobRoy.
Hm.
Couple that with dC and RobRoy both being on the Asenion wagon, and I'm 100% positive at least one of the two is scum, and both of them being a very likely thing.
I don't think I support lynching Cyouni over those two, dC in particular.
Che's early interaction with Nis read very genuine, and Cyouni being the first person to attack Nis, and be fairly consistent with it can't be overlooked, either.
I haven't completed the re-read yet, but D1 was what I wanted to look at, primarily.
dC names Nis as a scum read here, despite... brushing him off with the 'there are better places to look, anyways' line in a previous post. The read basically comes out of nowhere, and is probably just a 'I better list a scumbuddy in there somewhere' kind of thing.
dC+RR is a possible team, but at this point I feel like RR's posts have been more townish than Cy. Cy basically seems to be trying to do the minimum amount of work here, and I haven't gotten anything close to a strong town read from any of his posts, nor have I seen evidence of actual scum hunting besides D1 on Nis (which could've been distancing). He's not even attempting to convince us not to lynch him.
Looking at Voxx's posts, I can see dC+RR making a lot of sense too, but I need to reread for that. It still also doesn't explain why Cy is playing this way if he's town.
It's possible dC could be the best lynch, since he could be scum with either Cy or RR.
Both Cy and dC are question marks right now, but I am leaning towards Cy scum over dC scum. We also have setup gaming evidence against both (Cy for the Hitman argument, dC for the Voxx semi-counterclaim).
I think dC needs to answer the questions already and also full claim.
dC+RR is a possible team, but at this point I feel like RR's posts have been more townish than Cy. Cy basically seems to be trying to do the minimum amount of work here, and I haven't gotten anything close to a strong town read from any of his posts, nor have I seen evidence of actual scum hunting besides D1 on Nis (which could've been distancing). He's not even attempting to convince us not to lynch him.
I was going after Asenion and Nis D1, and Nis D2. I haven't particularly bothered today given I already know what my reads are and no one's listening anyways.
Any time I've pointed out what's incorrect in someone's logic, it's just brushed aside, or completely misrepresented in an absurd way. So yes, I've been trying to convince people not to lynch me, it's just been completely ignored.
Why dC ahead of fadeblue? Yes, you said that you didn't agree with my logic re: FO's starting targets earlier, but doesn't the fact that Hitmen usually have at least one starting scum target suggest that fade is the most likely of these to be scum?
Given the roles that are attached to the "cyan" requirements, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if fadeblue was town despite the cyan.
My suspicion of Cyouni comes from a number of aspects, none of which are slam-dunks. He is the only guy so far to claim abilities that work both during the day and during the night. The fact that he was made cyan doesn't match his claimed ability, and is a point he has never addressed. His reactions have also felt off to me, although I am not sure if that might be due to his mimicry.
Overall, I don't feel sure that Cyouni is scum, but I want a lynch on him more than anyone else but Taredas, and I really don't think that is happening.
First, no, AG has claimed a role that does that. His bodyguard lasts through the night and day.
Second, I addressed that - the ability would fall under 'other'.
Mehhh. RR/dC is possible, but Itill think one of the starting Hitman targets is scum (barring a scum who lied about being Cyan... well, okay, in that case a starting Hitman target was still scum, it's just not one of the two claimed targets).
But frankly, if dC's scum... I'm not so sure that our last scum isn't fade instead of Cyouni, because setup elegance and "cop+watcher+rolename cop/tracker". Yeah, that's mostly setup/balance gaming. So what.
Then again... The Hobbit just ended, and that game had three investigative roles of similar overall power. It also had... a Hitman. And that Hitman could only kill *once*. Yeah, FO's kill was apparently hard to get online, but...
---
You know, maybe it's time for the less subtle approach re: desCoures.
desCoures, you are at L-3. I have three votes. It is very close to deadline.
Fullclaim in your next post or die. And I mean EVERYTHING - I want the general flavor behind your one-shots, and if they are in fact based on Harry Potter Mafia items I want to know which ones. If you refuse, I WILL hammer.
Huh. I recalled that you dropped pressure on DRey, but your one-time mentioning of it in a large post slipped me by.
Okay, I can believe that. -My overall opinion around there was that his claim was too strong to lynch, even though I wasn't convinced it was town. I could see you picking up on that more than anything else.
I'm still not entirely comfortable with those questions near the end of D1, but that's inconclusive enough that you likely aren't the best lead here.
You know, maybe it's time for the less subtle approach re: desCoures.
desCoures, you are at L-3. I have three votes. It is very close to deadline.
Fullclaim in your next post or die. And I mean EVERYTHING - I want the general flavor behind your one-shots, and if they are in fact based on Harry Potter Mafia items I want to know which ones. If you refuse, I WILL hammer.
-Plus, his results from last Night, don't forget that one.
Okay, I can believe that. -My overall opinion around there was that his claim was too strong to lynch, even though I wasn't convinced it was town. I could see you picking up on that more than anything else.
I'm still not entirely comfortable with those questions near the end of D1, but that's inconclusive enough that you likely aren't the best lead here.
-Plus, his results from last Night, don't forget that one.
Oh right. And while we're at it, I want to know whether that rolename-checking ability targets.
...I know I haven't been checking this game much thanks to the Design Throwdown, but I still find this rather mystifying.
I want Voxxicus to point out exactly why in the world he is suddenly so suspicious of me, please. Because from where I'm looking from it looks a lot like his only real point is his 'counterclaim'. I also note that he hasn't answered my question as to whether his PR ability has the same effect as mine if broken.
...wow, I've lost touch with this game. That doesn't actually change much about RobRoy, though - kpaca's (I'm not really going to use his new username as long as I can help it) only real interaction while he was in the game was to be attacked by DRey, and with DRey as town that tells us exactly nothing. Which leaves RobRoy's behaviour, of which I only really remember him attacking DRey on day 1 and Taredas on day 2, the latter of which I actually remember feeling a bit like a piggyback off my own suspicions.
I don't like this post. It already bothers me that dC seems to be the scum oriented version of Voxx's role, and he keeps making the "dichotomy" more clear.
Why is he entertaining the theory that a Town KCC was lying to us? KCC is either lying to us, OR town. It doesn't make sense for her to be both. It is like dC was looking for a plot to concoct and the only one he could think of involved town/scum in collusion.
...totally and utterly wrong. My theory was that RobRoy and AtheistGod were gambitting scum. To verify this I needed to know accurately what KCC's ability was. I said 'without lying' because she's already been purposely unclear to outright misleading about her ability this game several times, albeit to town benefit.
Where in the world did I say I thought KCC was scum? I believe I even said at one point today that I didn't believe her scum.
I also don't like him trying to push away from lynching Cyouni. I don't see much, if any, reason to try and defend Cyouni here. RobRoy isn't cleared for sure, but his reactions to pressure toDay were solid.
I would probably lynch Cyouni or dC toDay.
I'd prefer lynching RobRoy because RobRoy is clearly more dodgy than Cyouni, who, as I've mentioned, at least had pressure on Nis on day 1 in his favour. I made this pretty clear.
1) Voxx just claimed his last one-shot, as you clearly noted since you responded to him in the same post I'm quoting from. You have no more excuse.
2) Even if Voxx hadn't claimed it - there's a REASON I asked only circumstantial questions about it. You'll note I specifically asked whether you used it last night; if you *had*, then one of the strongest reasons for not claiming it would go out the window. Moreover, the followup was asking what *kind* of ability it is (not any specifics of how it works, just the ability type and ONLY if it was used last night).
Yeah, I'm setup gaming here (I have no confidence in my behavioral reads on you at the moment). I'll explain the point when you claim the 1-shot (if you don't claim it today, I won't explain today either).
Also, on a largely unrelated note, a couple more questions:
- Why ask about the French Delegate, especially given how hard KCC went after Nis D1?
- What was the flavor of the -1 to lynch ability that you used on Nis N1? (I can see clear inspiration for both of your other claimed 1-shots in Harry Potter Mafia items, but the -1 to lynch doesn't directly correspond to anything from that game.)
Was that his last one? I thought he had two he was keeping quiet?
In any case, as to your questions -
1. Yes, all the abilities are items. Marauder's Map and Babbling Beverage are as you surmised. The -1 to lynch was a Horcrux, specifically Slytherin's Locket. And the last one-shot is a Sack of Galleons flavoured as a redirect, which I didn't really want to use without a good target, especially since I think it can redirect the mafia kill. If I had a good guess I might have redirected someone to AG, given that he claimed to be totally one-shot bulletproof.
2. I used the Marauder's Map mainly because I forgot to do anything until night was almost over. I didn't have a good target for either of the other two abilities (and frankly I don't think the Babbling Beverage ever has a good target in a mini) and I asked about the French Delegate because that was the rolename I most clearly remembered. And it should have been obvious that the Map doesn't target.
(And, to answer KCC, I did indeed find that rolename on the Map.)
--------------------
As I said above, I want clarifications from Voxxicus as to his exact points against me. This whole sidetrack smells of scum involvement... although now I think about it, the timing doesn't seem right unless Voxxicus is scum with Cyouni.
I still prefer to lynch RobRoy over Cyouni, though - I don't like the way he's suddenly resurfaced after days of silence when we were debating RobRoy v Cyouni and most people were in favour of lynching Cyouni.
Accordingly,
Unvote
Vote: RobRoy
Private Mod Note
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Esper Simperer; Even the court homonculi need someone to look down on.
Jund Fangirl; Few things can describe the bliss of the fangirl's cries fading to silence (broken by occasional munching sounds).
Grixis Emo; 'Why should I go out there? They're all uncaring zombies! *sniff* No one understands me...' Bant Wageslave; Behind every successful knight is a corporate drudge doing his taxwork.
Naya Overenthusiast; Because there is such a thing as too much enthusiasm.
I used the 'Force another player to use the avatar I want' 1-shot Day Two, to lock myself into claim, etc.
I still have a one shot 'unlynchable' - what it does is make it so that the player I select can't be lynched that day. They can still post and vote, but they sort of 'fade out'. I can't use it on myself.
I have two other 1-shots as well that are lynch related, but I don't think I'll ever be using them. One of them, I use the 'pitchfork' emoticon, and the only people that can be lynched that day are the person I select, or myself. I guess it could be useful if I was dead set on someone being scum and wanted to force town into an ultimatum, but just seems kind of dumb.
My final one I'm keeping quiet for now. It has viability to turn a loss to a win at end-game.
Then in #825 (the post that you initially responded to):
I can quote someone, use an emoticon, and force them to use a posting restriction that I wish (I PM it to Xyre upon using the emoticon) - if they break it, it roleblocks them that night.
Not revealing that was a combination of gambit and hoping I'd get shot (because let's face it - my 1-shots are pretty damn useless), and being able to 'force' someone to accept a roleblock at possible LYLO. If there's 4 people alive, and scum are most likely to be in two of them, we can lynch one and have the other self-roleblock, etc. If they refuse to self-roleblock, then can just lynch them instead, or something.
I dunno, it's a niche use, but it's still a use.
But I hadn't seen that dC also had a PR-forcing 1-shot, and I have trouble reconciling town having two of those.
It's at least theoretically possible that we're town day/night mirrors in that regard, but ehhh.
I don't mean to sound callous, but one of dC or Cyouni is almost certainly scum. If we lynch the wrong one, then AG bodyguards fade and fade cops the other one. Either way we catch scum.
Then the second scum is either the other one of dC or Cyouni, or is one of the two between Voxxicus and RobRoy. (And probably leaning more toward RobRoy in that situation.)
Private Mod Note
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An accurate description of myself:
Quote from Megiddo »
You're the dude who just lies a lot and makes people hate you and then magically becomes town later, right?
Technically I can hammer Cyouni right now - my ability only requires L-3 or less, not exactly L-3 (and I've gone over this with someone - dC? - before).
RR is, however, blocking me from proving that my vote still counts triple when hammering.
Hmm. I believe you on that matter. Do you/others want me to unvote, though?
RobRoy, do you think that AG is gambitting town lying about targeting me last night? Because that's the ONLY reasonable way that I can be scum if the Mafia didn't skip a kill last night. (Technically I could also be scum if the Mafia chose to NK one of its own members, but you'll pardon me for thinking that's not a reasonable possibility.)
You are correct! I'd seem a reminder recently that AG's claimed ability had stopped a kill, and forgotten who it was on. In that case, the only ways you could be scum are:
1) You are buddies with AG; or
2) The mafia skipped a night.
I guess 1) would also imply 2), really.
Anyway; I had forgotten that the mechanical clearing of AG would also clear you. I guess that narrows my remaining scum choices to Cyouni, dC, and fade.
Che's early interaction with Nis read very genuine, and Cyouni being the first person to attack Nis, and be fairly consistent with it can't be overlooked, either.
Question triggered by this. I thought that at some point I'd seen someone commenting that they didn't believe Nis and kpaca were on the same team due to early interactions. In looking back, I can only see where Nis goes "kpaca isn't a horrible choice for a deadline lynch" and then has to defend himself against the charge of starting a kpain wagon. Was there more to it that I missed, or is that it?
(This question is directed at the thread at large, and not specifically at Voxx.)
Second, I addressed that - the ability would fall under 'other'.
Honest question - where did you address that? What is the rationale for an ability that saves someone's life going under the "other" category, rather than protecting?
Which leaves RobRoy's behaviour, of which I only really remember him attacking DRey on day 1 and Taredas on day 2, the latter of which I actually remember feeling a bit like a piggyback off my own suspicions.
Bwah? My initial reasons for suspecting Taredas have been clearly stated on multiple occasions. They aren't good reasons, but they are reasons that have nothing to do with you.
I don't mean to sound callous, but one of dC or Cyouni is almost certainly scum. If we lynch the wrong one, then AG bodyguards fade and fade cops the other one. Either way we catch scum.
I will treat him as a townie until it stops being advantageous to do so. If he gives us a false read he dies. If we deal with these others who are highers suspects for me, then he's next. If we lynch toDay and then he gives us a Town read, then I'll get suspicious.
Private Mod Note
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An accurate description of myself:
Quote from Megiddo »
You're the dude who just lies a lot and makes people hate you and then magically becomes town later, right?
I will treat him as a townie until it stops being advantageous to do so. If he gives us a false read he dies. If we deal with these others who are highers suspects for me, then he's next. If we lynch toDay and then he gives us a Town read, then I'll get suspicious.
Why?
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Gimme a moment here, people - I'm working through a possible night action plan to lock down as many of the remaining scum as possible. (Early thought: I don't like dC's fullclaim, but I think optimal play may be to leave him alive until tomorrow.)
Gimme a moment here, people - I'm working through a possible night action plan to lock down as many of the remaining scum as possible. (Early thought: I don't like dC's fullclaim, but I think optimal play may be to leave him alive until tomorrow.)
Bleh, there's not much there, mostly because of AG's EXCEEDINGLY INCONVENIENT N1 target - best case would be to have desCoures redirect RobRoy to desCoures, but that doesn't work because AG targeted dC N1 and claimed enduring protection. Best I could come up with is lynch Cyouni and have desCoures redirect RobRoy to Asenion if Cy flips scum, which isn't much better than letting scum fire into the confirmeds willy-nilly (especially since rules post confirms that Mafia can kill and use abilities the same night).
And we have squat that works well if Cy flips town.
KCC: You can target me tonight if you want, but RR or no targeting is probably the better choice.
Side note: If we lynch town, fade WILL target RobRoy with the investigation on pain of lynch. And if fade gives us a scum result prior to Cyouni dying, we need to consider lynching him before his result (along with the outstanding "if Cyouni is town fade probably isn't" logic).
@Tar: I thought AG's protection only lasts 1 night/day cycle? Plus didn't he already lose his superhero-ness?
I agree with you on the plan if Cy flips town. I inspect RR, and if he is town, I may need to be lynched in order for the town to trust my result. We can afford 2 mislynches (Cy and me in that case), and hopefully PoE can finish it off.
Unofficial Vote Count
Cy (2) - AG, RR
RR (2) - dC, KCC
dC (2) - Voxx, Asen
Not Voting - Cy, fade, Tar
With 9 alive, it's 2 + Tar to lynch. There's less than 6 hours until deadline. At this point, I feel like I'm one flip away from solving this game, and even if we hit a townie, we get an inspect out of it, so I'm completely fine with Tar hammering any of the above. Though, dC may be the least ideal with the claimed redirect ability having at least a chance of doing something useful.
...I know I haven't been checking this game much thanks to the Design Throwdown, but I still find this rather mystifying.
How so?
I want Voxxicus to point out exactly why in the world he is suddenly so suspicious of me, please. Because from where I'm looking from it looks a lot like his only real point is his 'counterclaim'. I also note that he hasn't answered my question as to whether his PR ability has the same effect as mine if broken.[/quote]
I'm doing a re-read at the moment, and don't want the day ended before I finish that and post anything I find. Non-zero odds I'm shot tonight, especially if whoever is lynched flips scum, so want to firm up my reads and post any interaction/vote analysis I stumble upon.
Okay, I was going to quote what you just quoted - can't quote easily here, heh.
I can quote someone, use an emoticon, and force them to use a posting restriction that I wish (I PM it to Xyre upon using the emoticon) - if they break it, it roleblocks them that night.
Not revealing that was a combination of gambit and hoping I'd get shot (because let's face it - my 1-shots are pretty damn useless), and being able to 'force' someone to accept a roleblock at possible LYLO. If there's 4 people alive, and scum are most likely to be in two of them, we can lynch one and have the other self-roleblock, etc. If they refuse to self-roleblock, then can just lynch them instead, or something.
I dunno, it's a niche use, but it's still a use.
But I hadn't seen that dC also had a PR-forcing 1-shot, and I have trouble reconciling town having two of those.
It's at least theoretically possible that we're town day/night mirrors in that regard, but ehhh.
In dC's favor is using the threshold reduction 1-shot on N1, though, admittedly.
And now I'm second guessing myself.
Because why would scum use it then instead of saving it to end the game a day earlier?
Mrgle. Thoughts?
Yeah, I'm answering for someone else. At this point, I don't really care.
Also, Voxx - I have a sneaking suspicion that desCoures's -1 to lynch also did something else. (Considering Harry Potter Mafia items and the fact that DRey was NKed N1, "player is unblockable/untrackable tonight and gets -1 to lynch the next day" is distinctly possible.)
...wow, I've lost touch with this game. That doesn't actually change much about RobRoy, though - kpaca's (I'm not really going to use his new username as long as I can help it) only real interaction while he was in the game was to be attacked by DRey, and with DRey as town that tells us exactly nothing. Which leaves RobRoy's behaviour, of which I only really remember him attacking DRey on day 1 and Taredas on day 2, the latter of which I actually remember feeling a bit like a piggyback off my own suspicions.
Bull. RR attacked first (hell, he was attacking me late D1), you hopped on later.
(Yes, answering for another player again, but I'll call bull when I see it thank you very much.)
I'd prefer lynching RobRoy because RobRoy is clearly more dodgy than Cyouni, who, as I've mentioned, at least had pressure on Nis on day 1 in his favour. I made this pretty clear.
Said it once, I'll say it again - Cyouni's "suspect Nis but never really push" schtick D1 is entirely consistent with scum distancing from a partner they don't actually want to lynch.
1. Yes, all the abilities are items. Marauder's Map and Babbling Beverage are as you surmised. The -1 to lynch was a Horcrux, specifically Slytherin's Locket. And the last one-shot is a Sack of Galleons flavoured as a redirect, which I didn't really want to use without a good target, especially since I think it can redirect the mafia kill. If I had a good guess I might have redirected someone to AG, given that he claimed to be totally one-shot bulletproof.
2. I used the Marauder's Map mainly because I forgot to do anything until night was almost over. I didn't have a good target for either of the other two abilities (and frankly I don't think the Babbling Beverage ever has a good target in a mini) and I asked about the French Delegate because that was the rolename I most clearly remembered. And it should have been obvious that the Map doesn't target.
(And, to answer KCC, I did indeed find that rolename on the Map.)
Sack of Galleons? I was expecting either Elder Wand (motivate - would have made perfect sense to keep that hidden if you were town and thought fade town, since you would be waiting for fade to get his investigation online - that's why I asked fade what I did) or another investigative ability (obvious suspects were the Sorting Hat or Polyjuice Potion).
But instead the ability you wanted to keep quiet was... a redirect? I'm less than impressed. (Especially with KCC probably town.)
Oh, and why double-check whether your role name investigation targeted? On the off chance that you'd answer yes. See, I'm wondering whether your "check role name" 1-shot is actually Polyjuice Potion rather than the Marauder's Map (yes, this would require you to be lying scum, but there's pretty good odds of that anyways).
But.
You claimed a 1-shot redirect. If Cyouni flips scum, you will use that tonight to redirect RobRoy to Asenion (if we get any indication tomorrow that you didn't, you will be lynched).
KCC, if Cyouni flips town, rolestop desCoures.
But I don't think that's going to happen.
Hammering Cyouni in next post (need to dig up an AG post first).
I think it's dC and RobRoy, due to Che and Cyouni's Nis interactions reading relatively genuine.
dC is the read I'm most certain about being scum, but I ultimately don't think it matters which of the three you lynch.
We have my PR forcing roleblock to utilize if we do hit scum with the lynch today, tomorrow.
We have Asenion's daykill remaining.
We (probably) have one of a redirect shot or cop remaining.
I suppose I recommend lynching one of RobRoy or Cyouni. Let's say we lynch Cyouni, hypothetically.
If he flips scum, AG should flip a coin between either protecting me (as my roleblock can be used to great effect the next day) or Taredas.
If he flips scum, dC should redirect Fade into RobRoy.
If he flips /town/, then... things get a little more complicated. That means there is 2 scum in the dC/RobRoy/Fade cluster. Fade should cop check one of the first two, and dC probably not use the hypothetical redirect.
Hm.
There's not an elegant solution, I suppose, but lynching Cyouni and following that is probably as good as anything we can do.
My personal reads indicate dC/RobRoy scumteam, but I acknowledge the possibility that there is a Fade/Cyouni dichotomy, and won't protest the Cyouni lynch.
Day 1 Cyouni, DRey, and I could have all claimed.
Night 1 I protect DRey, Cyouni protects me, DRey targets me and both of us become cyan
Cyouni backups me continually from this point onward
Now this is where it gets really cool. My bodyguard protection lasts until I die, hence my earlier question to Cyouni. If someone were to daykill you right now, I would die instead.
Night 2 I protect Cyouni and DRey targets me again
Night 3 I protect the most likely town
Night 4 I protect the 2nd most likely town and so on
The mafia have a few possibilities:
1) They roleblock DRey (using KCC)
2) They throw away two members killing me night 2 and then Cyouni night 3
3) They shoot DRey 5 times to break through the double bodyguards from me and then Cyouni, which will result in blocked nightkills on night 1 and then night 3
4) They just fire at other town and likely run into a bodyguard protection at some point
The mafia have a roleblocker or some other method to break this up if the town has DRey's watcher role, my bodyguard role that has a high likelihood of getting a successful protection, and a backup + 1-shot pseudo-doc. It appears that KCC is the only roleblocker in the game and so it comes down to whether we doubt Cyouni's claim or whether we think KCC is a scum roleblocker. Right now, I'm leaning towards Cyouni false claiming.
Hey fade, take a good look.
Barring gambits, AG's protection actually lasts indefinitely. So no, we can't have dC redirect RR to dC tonight without risking the Mafia kill running into AG (where it will probably go if the scumteam is anything other than Cyouni/RR).
The main problem I have with your proposed Cyouni/dC team is that Cyouni targeted dC on N1.
There's a very limited subset of roles that would logically make sense to target your teammate who was under minimal D1 suspicion.
Nis wasn't that far below the surface, especially since the Mafia killed DRey N1 (leaving the other obvious distraction dead). KCC was on Nis, I was coming around late D1 after KCC's response to my D1 case.
Still doesn't make much sense, but that's WIFOM. Especially since the -1 being part of Nis's role is possible. So is the -1 being a rider on something else (Riddle's Diary from HP, anyone?
I mean dC wasn't under much suspicion - Cyouni targets dC, dC targets Nis, Nis does the kill on Drey?
I'm just having trouble figuring out why scum Cyouni would target scum desCoures.
But his flip will shed some light on the matter, regardless.
I think realistically the only people that could be false cleared are AG or KCC - AG /could/ have been gambitting scum, and they chose to no kill last night to clear himself. If Cyouni is scum I think he's effectively 100% cleared, though.
KCC is. Eh. Behaviorally she's unlikely to be scum, due to the Nis interactions, and willingly going /back/ on that wagon after hopping off it at points. I also liked her gambit on RobRoy and most of her play this game. She's not 'clear', but it's highly unlikely she's scum.
Asenion is...almost certainly town, I suppose. Despite his behavior.
AG should resolve himself sooner or later if he keeps targeting people he should.
And it's realistically just PoE at this point.
Chew our way through dC/RobRoy/Fade, and the game should be over.
AG should flip a coin between targeting myself or Tar tonight, imo. KCC being cleared via being the NK would be nice, Asenion getting shot just frees up his kill, and well. If they shoot Fade, that just...narrows PoE down even more.
Going to go sleep though, as I don't think I have anything else useful to impart. Just a waiting/PoE game at this point.
I don't know, but I'd consider it extremely unlikely, especially given that dC was still cyan/sticky at the time, and scum would have had no way of knowing it'd drop off.
-Not that I think a dC NK was likely there, even if he is town.
Also, I think this info that I just found is interesting. -dC's claimed Babbling Beverage and The Marauder’s Map work identically to how they did in HP mafia. The Sack of Galleons works as close as possible, considering this isn't an item based game. The Locket, however, was not even an item in that game.
I'm definitely thinking Nis had a -1 threshold for other reasons, and dC just claimed it for town cred.
If AG's ability works the way it sounds like it works, could dC have been the NK target last Night?
Hmm. I'm not hardcleared unless AG confirms dC couldn't have been the NK target or dC flips scum, but AG definitely seemed to think I was the NK target last night instead of dC so there's that.
-Not that I think a dC NK was likely there, even if he is town.
Also, I think this info that I just found is interesting. -dC's claimed Babbling Beverage and The Marauder’s Map work identically to how they did in HP mafia. The Sack of Galleons works as close as possible, considering this isn't an item based game. The Locket, however, was not even an item in that game.
I'm definitely thinking Nis had a -1 threshold for other reasons, and dC just claimed it for town cred.
I thought about that but concluded it was a little modgamey even for me. (Which is saying something.)
Riddle's Diary - Horcrux
-Kills are unblockable, and you are immune to the mafia's nightkill. You turn up guilty to investigations. You may not pass this item away at night if you make a kill during the same night. You may not use any other items.
dC could have been the NK, but only if the mafia thought that shooting a cyan player who had been protected the previous night was smart. It's also possible the mafia would have brought this up earlier if they had shot dC. They would have known I was incorrect and would therefore see that possibility in my claim more readily.
I was only told that one of the people I am protecting was targeted by the kill. desCoures seemed such an unlikely target that I assumed it was Taredas.
"Oh, I think that's the intention," AtheistGod says quietly. Q bares his teeth a little too much to be just grinning.
"Well, uh..." he stammers, before abruptly turning and tackling Taredas. When they stand up, they both look very Taredas-y.
Voxxicus sighs and puts his face in his hand. "Oh, great, a shapeshifter. Not like we haven't seen this one before." He walks up to one of the Taredas' and grabs his jaw. "'Oh no, don't kill me! I'm the real Taredas!'" he says, shoving his subject's mouth up and down.
"No he's not!" shouts the other Taredas.
"Oh, good, you saved me the trouble of getting your spit all over my hand too," Voxxicus says, wiping his hand on his pants.
"I vote we kill both of them!" says Q.
"You don't get a vote!" fadeblue shouts. Q pouts.
"I doubt," says RobRoy, "that we'll be able to figure this out. I have a better plan." The rest of you huddle and fiercely whisper to each other, and agree. A moment later, everyone is dressed like Taredas.
"But you - but me - but - awefgdaga," one of the Taredas' says incomprehensibly at the sight, before swooning and falling to the ground. Triumphantly, RobRoy raises his gun and takes aim at the other Tar -
"OH MAN, THAT WORKED! AWESOME!" KittyCupCake shouts next to RobRoy. His arm swerves at the sound, and he fires his gun right past the standing Taredas, sending the bullet instead right into a thick metal pole right behind him. With a wicked sound somewhere between klang! and kthwak!, it ricocheted right off and into the chest of the swooned Taredas.
"WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT?" RobRoy shouts at a sheepish-looking KCC, who looks down at the ground uncomfortably. After a moment, however, she gasps in surprise, as the dead Taredas' body returns to Cyouni's shape.
KCC looks up at RobRoy triumphantly, without saying a word. After a long moment, he scowls and stomps away.
Cyouni, A Cyan Chamber Pot - Mafia Impersonator, has been lynched.
It is now Night 3. Night will end on June 8th at 4pm MST.
Hey kids! You know, some days the mod just doesn't want to write a goddamn flavor scene. So you get to watch a movie today! And the movie's called AtheistGod Died Horribly Last Night: The Day Fourening.
AtheistGod, Captain Hammer - Town Superhero, was killed.
It is now Day 4. Day will end on June 22nd at 7pm MST.
Me being rolestopped creates a dichotomy between KCC and desCoures.
Town KCC would not have targeted me. It's not fathomable that it was a course of action she would have taken.
So she's either scum, or was redirected. And desCoures has claimed a redirect.
I also believe there is a clear dichotomy between RobRoy and desCoures, due to voting analysis. At least one of those two was scum (and it turns out exactly one of those two, with Cyouni flipping scum).
Two dichotomies involving desCoures = desCoures is mafia.
Good job, town. Zero mislynches - neutral, scum, scum, scum.
Vote: Taredas (still won't count, will count tomorrow barring a Mafia nokill/successful Voxx RB which apparently isn't happening)
---
All players who had actions last night claim them now. (That means you, KCC/desCoures - Voxx has no night actions, Asen has no actions currently, I have no actions period, AG is dead and thus can't claim, fade couldn't use his ability last night, RR is burned out.)
I intend to hammer desCoures once all actions are claimed, and I'd rather not wait until deadline to do it. If desCoures doesn't claim within 96 hours, I'll probably hammer regardless (and 24 hours of that is a courtesy since dC isn't usually around on weekends).
Me being rolestopped creates a dichotomy between KCC and desCoures.
Town KCC would not have targeted me. It's not fathomable that it was a course of action she would have taken.
So she's either scum, or was redirected. And desCoures has claimed a redirect.
I also believe there is a clear dichotomy between RobRoy and desCoures, due to voting analysis. At least one of those two was scum (and it turns out exactly one of those two, with Cyouni flipping scum).
Two dichotomies involving desCoures = desCoures is mafia.
Good job, town. Zero mislynches - neutral, scum, scum, scum.
The situation is probably more conclusive than you laid down above, but I want to double-check whether I can be sure about that. (Hence asking for last night's targets/actions.)
There's one other possibility at play here - Voxx faking getting rolestopped - but I don't think he gains enough from doing so to win (especially given that I don't think that buys him enough mislynches to win - okay, his scum style is WIFOM-heavy, but still). 90% likelihood dC is the last scum.
Also: KCC, RR: Did anything happen to you last night that you know about?
If you are town-aligned and are responsible for that roleblock (flavor is rather unequivocal on that part) on me last night, claim it in your next post.
---
In unrelated news, I'm 90% sure that our scum are three of the following five players: Nis, KCC, dC, RR, Cyouni (aka the "standing off to the side" group). Voxx is on balance unlikely - the JoaT claim and the RVS softclaim both look like they came from town. AG is likely scum if KCC is scum, otherwise probably town. I'm reserving judgment on Fade at this time - after rereading his slot overnight I want to see more out of him. Asen is very likely town.
But, there's a more important order of business. We are mass origin claiming today, for reasons I will explain later in the day. I'd say popcorn, but with the amount of inactivity we had yesterday just claim when you get to the thread. (Note that I'd strongly prefer that Asen and myself claim late.)
I may have trouble EXPLAINING my grouping methods - unsurprising, they're gut-based to the extent that logically justifying them can actually hurt my hunting - but they certainly work.
Interestingly, if postgame comments in Chimes are any judge Voxx's hunting style is very similar to my own, except he doesn't act as certain D1.
I mean, I can see where that train of thought comes from - 'Scum Voxx trying to generate two mislynches on dC and KCC, and then hope to paint RobRoy as a full scum redirector at LyLO' or something. But if I wasn't rolestopped, someone else would be - and would claim as much.
Just a thought exercise, really. This is my only game at the moment, I have no work to do this weekend, and the finacee is out of town. Unfortunately, there's very little 'mafia' to play, yet. Just need KCC to confirm that she didn't target me, and then hammer dC for the win.
And to be fair, I replaced into the Chimes game on D2, and didn't really read the game in full until Night 2.
I'm not a strong day one player, though. I'm perfectly happy to park a vote on someone that I think is scum, and sit back and watch interactions play out. Maybe poke something with a stick if it looks weird.
Once I get a flip or two, the combination of PoE and voting analysis narrows the gamestate down drastically. I just try to continually pin the scum team into a smaller and smaller box and watch them squirm and make desperation moves under pressure.
I'm bored, so going to pull up a few vote wagons from this game to conclusively prove why desCoures is scum. And point out an analysis tool I love (especially in larger games).
There is the Drey wagon on D1. Tardeas had HoS on him with intent to hammer, etc.
I've gone back over 25-30 Minis/Basics on this site, and I found 1 total stretch of 6 people on a town wagon on day one, where all 6 were town.
So it's pretty conclusive that 6 people voting for one town player on D1 means that at least 1 person on the wagon is scum. Behaviorally, it checks out - scum want to get town lynched. Scum also don't want tied to the town lynch, so frequently are going to have votes off in the middle of nowhere, in useless positions - see Nis and Cyouni.
I can expand more on the 3 parts of vote analysis (the wagon, the abstainers, and the 'out in nowheres' another time. The point is, there was at least one scum on that Drey wagon.
DRey - 5[6] (kpaca, KittyCupCake, AtheistGod, Che Guevara, desCoures, [Taredas])
Taredas is confirmed town with AG flipping town.
AG is town.
I'm town.
That means there is one scum in the Kpaca, KCC and dC cluster.
One of dC and RobRoy is extremely likely scum based on this wagon on Asenion. Looking back at the interactions there makes KCC just...really unlikely scum.
So I think there's a behavioral dichotomy where one of dC and RobRoy is scum, based on the Drey D1 wagon, and the Asenion lynch push opposing Nis, after Nis claimed the false daykill.
So realistically there's only 3 remotely plausible worlds we can be in:
1) desCoures is scum, and is either a JoaT or a full redirector, who forced KCC to rolestop me.
2) RobRoy is scum, and is a redirecting variant.
3) KCC is scum, and blocked me, hoping to WiFOM her way to a win.
But this is just a long-winded way to say that yeah, desCoures is scum, and we win after hammering him, heh.
Private Mod Note
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To this:
Nis gets wagoned early after his 'neutral hunting' and backpedal off it, and then the DRey wagon springs up, speared by dC and Kpaca. Who is now RobRoy.
Hm.
Couple that with dC and RobRoy both being on the Asenion wagon, and I'm 100% positive at least one of the two is scum, and both of them being a very likely thing.
I don't think I support lynching Cyouni over those two, dC in particular.
Che's early interaction with Nis read very genuine, and Cyouni being the first person to attack Nis, and be fairly consistent with it can't be overlooked, either.
I haven't completed the re-read yet, but D1 was what I wanted to look at, primarily.
dC names Nis as a scum read here, despite... brushing him off with the 'there are better places to look, anyways' line in a previous post. The read basically comes out of nowhere, and is probably just a 'I better list a scumbuddy in there somewhere' kind of thing.
Nis - 1 (Cyouni)
DRey - 3 (AtheistGod, fadeblue, desCoures)
AtheistGod - 2 (Nis, DRey)
Forgotten One - 7 (Voxxicus, KittyCupCake, Asenion, RobRoy, Taredas)
FO wasn't town, no, but he also wasn't mafia. So to the mafia, he was town as far as they knew at this point.
So RobRoy is the only one of the plausible scum on the FO wagon.
Solidifying my Nis/dC/RobRoy scumteam.
Yeah.
Those are our last two scum.
Let's do this.
Looking at Voxx's posts, I can see dC+RR making a lot of sense too, but I need to reread for that. It still also doesn't explain why Cy is playing this way if he's town.
It's possible dC could be the best lynch, since he could be scum with either Cy or RR.
Both Cy and dC are question marks right now, but I am leaning towards Cy scum over dC scum. We also have setup gaming evidence against both (Cy for the Hitman argument, dC for the Voxx semi-counterclaim).
I think dC needs to answer the questions already and also full claim.
Any time I've pointed out what's incorrect in someone's logic, it's just brushed aside, or completely misrepresented in an absurd way. So yes, I've been trying to convince people not to lynch me, it's just been completely ignored.
Huh. I recalled that you dropped pressure on DRey, but your one-time mentioning of it in a large post slipped me by.
Given the roles that are attached to the "cyan" requirements, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if fadeblue was town despite the cyan.
First, no, AG has claimed a role that does that. His bodyguard lasts through the night and day.
Second, I addressed that - the ability would fall under 'other'.
But frankly, if dC's scum... I'm not so sure that our last scum isn't fade instead of Cyouni, because setup elegance and "cop+watcher+rolename cop/tracker". Yeah, that's mostly setup/balance gaming. So what.
Then again... The Hobbit just ended, and that game had three investigative roles of similar overall power. It also had... a Hitman. And that Hitman could only kill *once*. Yeah, FO's kill was apparently hard to get online, but...
---
You know, maybe it's time for the less subtle approach re: desCoures.
desCoures, you are at L-3. I have three votes. It is very close to deadline.
Fullclaim in your next post or die. And I mean EVERYTHING - I want the general flavor behind your one-shots, and if they are in fact based on Harry Potter Mafia items I want to know which ones. If you refuse, I WILL hammer.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
Okay, I can believe that. -My overall opinion around there was that his claim was too strong to lynch, even though I wasn't convinced it was town. I could see you picking up on that more than anything else.
I'm still not entirely comfortable with those questions near the end of D1, but that's inconclusive enough that you likely aren't the best lead here.
-Plus, his results from last Night, don't forget that one.
Oh right. And while we're at it, I want to know whether that rolename-checking ability targets.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
I want Voxxicus to point out exactly why in the world he is suddenly so suspicious of me, please. Because from where I'm looking from it looks a lot like his only real point is his 'counterclaim'. I also note that he hasn't answered my question as to whether his PR ability has the same effect as mine if broken.
---------------------
@fadeblue
They do. See my response to him later.
...wow, I've lost touch with this game. That doesn't actually change much about RobRoy, though - kpaca's (I'm not really going to use his new username as long as I can help it) only real interaction while he was in the game was to be attacked by DRey, and with DRey as town that tells us exactly nothing. Which leaves RobRoy's behaviour, of which I only really remember him attacking DRey on day 1 and Taredas on day 2, the latter of which I actually remember feeling a bit like a piggyback off my own suspicions.
@Asenion
Explain.
...totally and utterly wrong. My theory was that RobRoy and AtheistGod were gambitting scum. To verify this I needed to know accurately what KCC's ability was. I said 'without lying' because she's already been purposely unclear to outright misleading about her ability this game several times, albeit to town benefit.
Where in the world did I say I thought KCC was scum? I believe I even said at one point today that I didn't believe her scum.
I'd prefer lynching RobRoy because RobRoy is clearly more dodgy than Cyouni, who, as I've mentioned, at least had pressure on Nis on day 1 in his favour. I made this pretty clear.
@Taredas
Was that his last one? I thought he had two he was keeping quiet?
In any case, as to your questions -
1. Yes, all the abilities are items. Marauder's Map and Babbling Beverage are as you surmised. The -1 to lynch was a Horcrux, specifically Slytherin's Locket. And the last one-shot is a Sack of Galleons flavoured as a redirect, which I didn't really want to use without a good target, especially since I think it can redirect the mafia kill. If I had a good guess I might have redirected someone to AG, given that he claimed to be totally one-shot bulletproof.
2. I used the Marauder's Map mainly because I forgot to do anything until night was almost over. I didn't have a good target for either of the other two abilities (and frankly I don't think the Babbling Beverage ever has a good target in a mini) and I asked about the French Delegate because that was the rolename I most clearly remembered. And it should have been obvious that the Map doesn't target.
(And, to answer KCC, I did indeed find that rolename on the Map.)
--------------------
As I said above, I want clarifications from Voxxicus as to his exact points against me. This whole sidetrack smells of scum involvement... although now I think about it, the timing doesn't seem right unless Voxxicus is scum with Cyouni.
I still prefer to lynch RobRoy over Cyouni, though - I don't like the way he's suddenly resurfaced after days of silence when we were debating RobRoy v Cyouni and most people were in favour of lynching Cyouni.
Accordingly,
Unvote
Vote: RobRoy
Jund Fangirl; Few things can describe the bliss of the fangirl's cries fading to silence (broken by occasional munching sounds).
Grixis Emo; 'Why should I go out there? They're all uncaring zombies! *sniff* No one understands me...'
Bant Wageslave; Behind every successful knight is a corporate drudge doing his taxwork.
Naya Overenthusiast; Because there is such a thing as too much enthusiasm.
Then in #825 (the post that you initially responded to):
Then the second scum is either the other one of dC or Cyouni, or is one of the two between Voxxicus and RobRoy. (And probably leaning more toward RobRoy in that situation.)
My cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9981
Hmm. I believe you on that matter. Do you/others want me to unvote, though?
You are correct! I'd seem a reminder recently that AG's claimed ability had stopped a kill, and forgotten who it was on. In that case, the only ways you could be scum are:
1) You are buddies with AG; or
2) The mafia skipped a night.
I guess 1) would also imply 2), really.
Anyway; I had forgotten that the mechanical clearing of AG would also clear you. I guess that narrows my remaining scum choices to Cyouni, dC, and fade.
Question triggered by this. I thought that at some point I'd seen someone commenting that they didn't believe Nis and kpaca were on the same team due to early interactions. In looking back, I can only see where Nis goes "kpaca isn't a horrible choice for a deadline lynch" and then has to defend himself against the charge of starting a kpain wagon. Was there more to it that I missed, or is that it?
(This question is directed at the thread at large, and not specifically at Voxx.)
It has a duration, yes - so does KCC's. But neither of them have both a night ability _and_ a day ability.
Honest question - where did you address that? What is the rationale for an ability that saves someone's life going under the "other" category, rather than protecting?
Bwah? My initial reasons for suspecting Taredas have been clearly stated on multiple occasions. They aren't good reasons, but they are reasons that have nothing to do with you.
Why are you so sure that fade is townie?
My cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9981
Cyouni, why did you backup the claimed weak cop over the proven protective role today?
Why?
---
Gimme a moment here, people - I'm working through a possible night action plan to lock down as many of the remaining scum as possible. (Early thought: I don't like dC's fullclaim, but I think optimal play may be to leave him alive until tomorrow.)
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
Bleh, there's not much there, mostly because of AG's EXCEEDINGLY INCONVENIENT N1 target - best case would be to have desCoures redirect RobRoy to desCoures, but that doesn't work because AG targeted dC N1 and claimed enduring protection. Best I could come up with is lynch Cyouni and have desCoures redirect RobRoy to Asenion if Cy flips scum, which isn't much better than letting scum fire into the confirmeds willy-nilly (especially since rules post confirms that Mafia can kill and use abilities the same night).
And we have squat that works well if Cy flips town.
KCC: You can target me tonight if you want, but RR or no targeting is probably the better choice.
Side note: If we lynch town, fade WILL target RobRoy with the investigation on pain of lynch. And if fade gives us a scum result prior to Cyouni dying, we need to consider lynching him before his result (along with the outstanding "if Cyouni is town fade probably isn't" logic).
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
I agree with you on the plan if Cy flips town. I inspect RR, and if he is town, I may need to be lynched in order for the town to trust my result. We can afford 2 mislynches (Cy and me in that case), and hopefully PoE can finish it off.
Unofficial Vote Count
Cy (2) - AG, RR
RR (2) - dC, KCC
dC (2) - Voxx, Asen
Not Voting - Cy, fade, Tar
With 9 alive, it's 2 + Tar to lynch. There's less than 6 hours until deadline. At this point, I feel like I'm one flip away from solving this game, and even if we hit a townie, we get an inspect out of it, so I'm completely fine with Tar hammering any of the above. Though, dC may be the least ideal with the claimed redirect ability having at least a chance of doing something useful.
How so?
I want Voxxicus to point out exactly why in the world he is suddenly so suspicious of me, please. Because from where I'm looking from it looks a lot like his only real point is his 'counterclaim'. I also note that he hasn't answered my question as to whether his PR ability has the same effect as mine if broken.[/quote]
X
Yeah, I'm answering for someone else. At this point, I don't really care.
Also, Voxx - I have a sneaking suspicion that desCoures's -1 to lynch also did something else. (Considering Harry Potter Mafia items and the fact that DRey was NKed N1, "player is unblockable/untrackable tonight and gets -1 to lynch the next day" is distinctly possible.)
Bull. RR attacked first (hell, he was attacking me late D1), you hopped on later.
(Yes, answering for another player again, but I'll call bull when I see it thank you very much.)
Said it once, I'll say it again - Cyouni's "suspect Nis but never really push" schtick D1 is entirely consistent with scum distancing from a partner they don't actually want to lynch.
See quoted Voxx post above
Sack of Galleons? I was expecting either Elder Wand (motivate - would have made perfect sense to keep that hidden if you were town and thought fade town, since you would be waiting for fade to get his investigation online - that's why I asked fade what I did) or another investigative ability (obvious suspects were the Sorting Hat or Polyjuice Potion).
But instead the ability you wanted to keep quiet was... a redirect? I'm less than impressed. (Especially with KCC probably town.)
Oh, and why double-check whether your role name investigation targeted? On the off chance that you'd answer yes. See, I'm wondering whether your "check role name" 1-shot is actually Polyjuice Potion rather than the Marauder's Map (yes, this would require you to be lying scum, but there's pretty good odds of that anyways).
But.
You claimed a 1-shot redirect. If Cyouni flips scum, you will use that tonight to redirect RobRoy to Asenion (if we get any indication tomorrow that you didn't, you will be lynched).
KCC, if Cyouni flips town, rolestop desCoures.
But I don't think that's going to happen.
Hammering Cyouni in next post (need to dig up an AG post first).
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
We have two scum in this cluster of players:
Fadedblue
Cyouni
RobRoy
desCoures
I think it's dC and RobRoy, due to Che and Cyouni's Nis interactions reading relatively genuine.
dC is the read I'm most certain about being scum, but I ultimately don't think it matters which of the three you lynch.
We have my PR forcing roleblock to utilize if we do hit scum with the lynch today, tomorrow.
We have Asenion's daykill remaining.
We (probably) have one of a redirect shot or cop remaining.
I suppose I recommend lynching one of RobRoy or Cyouni. Let's say we lynch Cyouni, hypothetically.
If he flips scum, AG should flip a coin between either protecting me (as my roleblock can be used to great effect the next day) or Taredas.
If he flips scum, dC should redirect Fade into RobRoy.
If he flips /town/, then... things get a little more complicated. That means there is 2 scum in the dC/RobRoy/Fade cluster. Fade should cop check one of the first two, and dC probably not use the hypothetical redirect.
Hm.
There's not an elegant solution, I suppose, but lynching Cyouni and following that is probably as good as anything we can do.
My personal reads indicate dC/RobRoy scumteam, but I acknowledge the possibility that there is a Fade/Cyouni dichotomy, and won't protest the Cyouni lynch.
Hey fade, take a good look.
Barring gambits, AG's protection actually lasts indefinitely. So no, we can't have dC redirect RR to dC tonight without risking the Mafia kill running into AG (where it will probably go if the scumteam is anything other than Cyouni/RR).
Darn.
---
JFK blown away, I don't have no mo' to say!
Vote x3: Cyouni
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
There's a very limited subset of roles that would logically make sense to target your teammate who was under minimal D1 suspicion.
I really dislike setup gaming.
Here's hoping Cyouni flips scum just to simplify matters.
Nis wasn't that far below the surface, especially since the Mafia killed DRey N1 (leaving the other obvious distraction dead). KCC was on Nis, I was coming around late D1 after KCC's response to my D1 case.
Still doesn't make much sense, but that's WIFOM. Especially since the -1 being part of Nis's role is possible. So is the -1 being a rider on something else (Riddle's Diary from HP, anyone?
Maybe. There could be scum counters - desCoures comes to mind.
Also remember there's a Cyouni/Fade dichotomy in effect barring a very unusual Hitman.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
Well, unless I falsecleared someone.
Have to double-check that.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
I'm just having trouble figuring out why scum Cyouni would target scum desCoures.
But his flip will shed some light on the matter, regardless.
I think realistically the only people that could be false cleared are AG or KCC - AG /could/ have been gambitting scum, and they chose to no kill last night to clear himself. If Cyouni is scum I think he's effectively 100% cleared, though.
KCC is. Eh. Behaviorally she's unlikely to be scum, due to the Nis interactions, and willingly going /back/ on that wagon after hopping off it at points. I also liked her gambit on RobRoy and most of her play this game. She's not 'clear', but it's highly unlikely she's scum.
Asenion is...almost certainly town, I suppose. Despite his behavior.
AG should resolve himself sooner or later if he keeps targeting people he should.
And it's realistically just PoE at this point.
Chew our way through dC/RobRoy/Fade, and the game should be over.
AG should flip a coin between targeting myself or Tar tonight, imo. KCC being cleared via being the NK would be nice, Asenion getting shot just frees up his kill, and well. If they shoot Fade, that just...narrows PoE down even more.
Going to go sleep though, as I don't think I have anything else useful to impart. Just a waiting/PoE game at this point.
If AG's ability works the way it sounds like it works, could dC have been the NK target last Night?
I don't know, but I'd consider it extremely unlikely, especially given that dC was still cyan/sticky at the time, and scum would have had no way of knowing it'd drop off.
But I need to sleep. I'm terrible at getting distracted.
Also, I think this info that I just found is interesting. -dC's claimed Babbling Beverage and The Marauder’s Map work identically to how they did in HP mafia. The Sack of Galleons works as close as possible, considering this isn't an item based game. The Locket, however, was not even an item in that game.
I'm definitely thinking Nis had a -1 threshold for other reasons, and dC just claimed it for town cred.
Hmm. I'm not hardcleared unless AG confirms dC couldn't have been the NK target or dC flips scum, but AG definitely seemed to think I was the NK target last night instead of dC so there's that.
---
I thought about that but concluded it was a little modgamey even for me. (Which is saying something.)
But while I'm here:
No -1 there, but... I wonder, I wonder.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
I was only told that one of the people I am protecting was targeted by the kill. desCoures seemed such an unlikely target that I assumed it was Taredas.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
I do want to point out though that I remember checking the OP when we went to night, and Cy and dC had already stopped being cyan at that point.
(5 to lynch)
Cyouni - 5 (AtheistGod, RobRoy, Taredas)
desCoures - 2 (Voxxicus, Asenion)
RobRoy - 2 (desCoures, KittyCupCake)
Not Voting: Cyouni, fadeblue
"You'll never take me alive!" Cyouni says.
"Oh, I think that's the intention," AtheistGod says quietly. Q bares his teeth a little too much to be just grinning.
"Well, uh..." he stammers, before abruptly turning and tackling Taredas. When they stand up, they both look very Taredas-y.
Voxxicus sighs and puts his face in his hand. "Oh, great, a shapeshifter. Not like we haven't seen this one before." He walks up to one of the Taredas' and grabs his jaw. "'Oh no, don't kill me! I'm the real Taredas!'" he says, shoving his subject's mouth up and down.
"No he's not!" shouts the other Taredas.
"Oh, good, you saved me the trouble of getting your spit all over my hand too," Voxxicus says, wiping his hand on his pants.
"I vote we kill both of them!" says Q.
"You don't get a vote!" fadeblue shouts. Q pouts.
"I doubt," says RobRoy, "that we'll be able to figure this out. I have a better plan." The rest of you huddle and fiercely whisper to each other, and agree. A moment later, everyone is dressed like Taredas.
"But you - but me - but - awefgdaga," one of the Taredas' says incomprehensibly at the sight, before swooning and falling to the ground. Triumphantly, RobRoy raises his gun and takes aim at the other Tar -
"OH MAN, THAT WORKED! AWESOME!" KittyCupCake shouts next to RobRoy. His arm swerves at the sound, and he fires his gun right past the standing Taredas, sending the bullet instead right into a thick metal pole right behind him. With a wicked sound somewhere between klang! and kthwak!, it ricocheted right off and into the chest of the swooned Taredas.
"WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT?" RobRoy shouts at a sheepish-looking KCC, who looks down at the ground uncomfortably. After a moment, however, she gasps in surprise, as the dead Taredas' body returns to Cyouni's shape.
KCC looks up at RobRoy triumphantly, without saying a word. After a long moment, he scowls and stomps away.
Cyouni, A Cyan Chamber Pot - Mafia Impersonator, has been lynched.
It is now Night 3. Night will end on June 8th at 4pm MST.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
AtheistGod, Captain Hammer - Town Superhero, was killed.
It is now Day 4. Day will end on June 22nd at 7pm MST.
Experiments Series: #5 (Courtly Intrigue Mafia) | #4 (Drunken Tracker) | #3 (Big Red Button) - coming soon | #2 (Pope Mafia) | #1 (Iso's Inflammable Mafia)
Mini Games: MTGS Mafia Redux II (Invitational, Evil Mirror Universe) | Unreal City
Old Games (bad): The Greenwood Affair | Blood Moon Mafia
Hey. Hey, KCC.
Why did you rolestop me?
Now I'll get shot tonight with AG dead, and never be able to use the post restriction roleblock.
I don't know who possibly could have something like that as part of their role.
Vote: desCoures
Town KCC would not have targeted me. It's not fathomable that it was a course of action she would have taken.
So she's either scum, or was redirected. And desCoures has claimed a redirect.
I also believe there is a clear dichotomy between RobRoy and desCoures, due to voting analysis. At least one of those two was scum (and it turns out exactly one of those two, with Cyouni flipping scum).
Two dichotomies involving desCoures = desCoures is mafia.
Good job, town. Zero mislynches - neutral, scum, scum, scum.
Vote: Taredas (still won't count, will count tomorrow barring a Mafia nokill/successful Voxx RB which apparently isn't happening)
---
All players who had actions last night claim them now. (That means you, KCC/desCoures - Voxx has no night actions, Asen has no actions currently, I have no actions period, AG is dead and thus can't claim, fade couldn't use his ability last night, RR is burned out.)
I intend to hammer desCoures once all actions are claimed, and I'd rather not wait until deadline to do it. If desCoures doesn't claim within 96 hours, I'll probably hammer regardless (and 24 hours of that is a courtesy since dC isn't usually around on weekends).
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
The situation is probably more conclusive than you laid down above, but I want to double-check whether I can be sure about that. (Hence asking for last night's targets/actions.)
There's one other possibility at play here - Voxx faking getting rolestopped - but I don't think he gains enough from doing so to win (especially given that I don't think that buys him enough mislynches to win - okay, his scum style is WIFOM-heavy, but still). 90% likelihood dC is the last scum.
Also: KCC, RR: Did anything happen to you last night that you know about?
---
Also, I'm just going to drop this here:
I may have trouble EXPLAINING my grouping methods - unsurprising, they're gut-based to the extent that logically justifying them can actually hurt my hunting - but they certainly work.
Interestingly, if postgame comments in Chimes are any judge Voxx's hunting style is very similar to my own, except he doesn't act as certain D1.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
How could I fake being rolestopped?
I mean, I can see where that train of thought comes from - 'Scum Voxx trying to generate two mislynches on dC and KCC, and then hope to paint RobRoy as a full scum redirector at LyLO' or something. But if I wasn't rolestopped, someone else would be - and would claim as much.
Just a thought exercise, really. This is my only game at the moment, I have no work to do this weekend, and the finacee is out of town. Unfortunately, there's very little 'mafia' to play, yet. Just need KCC to confirm that she didn't target me, and then hammer dC for the win.
I'm not a strong day one player, though. I'm perfectly happy to park a vote on someone that I think is scum, and sit back and watch interactions play out. Maybe poke something with a stick if it looks weird.
Once I get a flip or two, the combination of PoE and voting analysis narrows the gamestate down drastically. I just try to continually pin the scum team into a smaller and smaller box and watch them squirm and make desperation moves under pressure.
I'm bored, so going to pull up a few vote wagons from this game to conclusively prove why desCoures is scum. And point out an analysis tool I love (especially in larger games).
Nis - 1 (Cyouni)
Che Guevara - 1 (Voxxicus)
DRey - 5[6] (kpaca, KittyCupCake, AtheistGod, Che Guevara, desCoures, [Taredas])
AtheistGod - 3 (Nis, DRey, Asenion)
Not Voting: Taredas
There is the Drey wagon on D1. Tardeas had HoS on him with intent to hammer, etc.
I've gone back over 25-30 Minis/Basics on this site, and I found 1 total stretch of 6 people on a town wagon on day one, where all 6 were town.
So it's pretty conclusive that 6 people voting for one town player on D1 means that at least 1 person on the wagon is scum. Behaviorally, it checks out - scum want to get town lynched. Scum also don't want tied to the town lynch, so frequently are going to have votes off in the middle of nowhere, in useless positions - see Nis and Cyouni.
I can expand more on the 3 parts of vote analysis (the wagon, the abstainers, and the 'out in nowheres' another time. The point is, there was at least one scum on that Drey wagon.
DRey - 5[6] (kpaca, KittyCupCake, AtheistGod, Che Guevara, desCoures, [Taredas])
Taredas is confirmed town with AG flipping town.
AG is town.
I'm town.
That means there is one scum in the Kpaca, KCC and dC cluster.
There's also this:
Cyouni - 1 (fadeblue)
RobRoy - 1 (Voxxicus)
Asenion - 5 (Nis, Taredas, desCoures, Asenion, RobRoy)
Nis - 1 (Cyouni)
Not Voting: AtheistGod, KittyCupCake
One of dC and RobRoy is extremely likely scum based on this wagon on Asenion. Looking back at the interactions there makes KCC just...really unlikely scum.
So I think there's a behavioral dichotomy where one of dC and RobRoy is scum, based on the Drey D1 wagon, and the Asenion lynch push opposing Nis, after Nis claimed the false daykill.
So realistically there's only 3 remotely plausible worlds we can be in:
1) desCoures is scum, and is either a JoaT or a full redirector, who forced KCC to rolestop me.
2) RobRoy is scum, and is a redirecting variant.
3) KCC is scum, and blocked me, hoping to WiFOM her way to a win.
But this is just a long-winded way to say that yeah, desCoures is scum, and we win after hammering him, heh.