This is your won't-talk-about-GIP solid meta read. Why are we talking meta when the player in question has like 4 games on her belt & is intelligent enough to learn from her mistakes?
Because I thought she had more games and thus learning from mistakes would not be a large factor.
In addition, some otherwise intelligent players do have very strong meta tells. Just ask Void; Iso used to be able to figure out his alignment within a single post.
It's all a case of my information being wildly incomplete. You silly mods with your hidden games.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Feel free to berate me now. I actually feel a little sick. I don't mind screwing up in the short-term games I'm used to, but wow a mislynch must feel terrible after weeks of debating.
Uneasiness immediately after hammering? C'mon Jay, you're better than this!
Anyways, I applaud you for your initiative. People need to be more like you.
I suppose this is my official "bah" post, and I'd like to make it memorable.
First off, I'd like to thank Megiddo for everything he did to make this game possible. 'Twas fun stuff.
Next, I'd like to thank everyone who participated. You guys are like the jelly inside of the doughnut. I was quite surprised that you guys put up with my as long as you did. I apologize to any of you who I annoyed/deceived/anything else. I was just putting my amazing scheme into motion, so no hard feeling to you guys.
Good luck to all of you in your future endeavors. I have provided you guys with a plethora of useful information. Use it, and be successful.
But alas, I can see the light fading, and my limbs getting cold. It appears it is time for me to depart from the land of the living. Go on without me! I'm sure we will meet again some day!
(P.S. I'm looking for some constructive criticism regarding my play this game. If anyone has any input, feel free to share!)
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"I'm a compulsive liar no matter what team I play on, but I'm trying to get better about it."
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Feel free to berate me now. I actually feel a little sick. I don't mind screwing up in the short-term games I'm used to, but wow a mislynch must feel terrible after weeks of debating.
Uneasiness immediately after hammering? C'mon Jay, you're better than this!
I'm only cold and emotionless to people I know in real life.
The next morning, Noland assembled the Pokémon on the Factory floor.
"One, two, six, nine... we're missing two."
The assembled Pokémon looked amongst themselves, and indeed, there were two fewer than there were just yesterday.
"Somebody find their Pokéballs."
The group scattered, and after a few minutes reconvened. Two Pokéballs were laid at Noland's feet. He picked the first up and opened it. Arcadic's limp body came out and, with a crackle, flopped onto the floor.
Noland grabbed his Pokédex again.
18
No. 181
AMPHAROS
LIGHT
HT
50
WT
4'07"
135.6lb
Ability
Static: You have no special abilities.
Move
Struggle: You have no Moves.
Noland then opened the other ball, revealing Iso's massive form.
18
No. 143
SNORLAX
SLEEPING
HT
50
WT
6'11"
1014.1lb
Ability
Thick Fat: You have no special abilities.
Move
(1PP) Odor Sleuth: Target a player at Night to learn their alignment.
After poking Iso to make sure he wasn't just sleeping as usual, Noland put the two KO'd Pokémon back into the balls and stuck them into his pocket.
"Fix this," he said, just before turning on his heel and walking into the back room of the Factory.
---
It is now Day 2
The deadline is 18 days, or August 20th, 11:59PM EST
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch!
---
I thought of a cool idea in the car that I will be implementing starting now.
Deadline Extensions
During the game, there are up to three deadline extensions available. These extensions may be requested by the players at any time in the thread, and may be granted at my sole discretion. Don't be mad if I say no.
The options are as follows:
A: 24 hours per player OR 7 days, whichever is shorter.
B: 72 hours
C: 24 hours
- Once a particular extension is used, it cannot be used again that same game.
- Any number of extensions can be used in the same game Day.
- If the players do not specify which extension they wish to use (or if there is no consensus on which one to use), I will pick the remaining option highest up on the list.
- Extensions are appended to the deadline time. There's no need to strategically time when the request is made.
- At least two players must request an extension for it to be considered.
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Wheat did say he was a vig and that he was going to shoot Iso, but I guess it could have been the night kill. That doesn't explain how Arcadic died though. I recall both Void and Wheat mentioning Occam's Razor...here it would seem to suggest that Wheat misvigged and the scum killed Arcadic.
I'll check back, but hansanator is the only person I remember Arcadic going after. We had a lot of good discussion, I should be able to reread with the new information in mind this weekend.
So, what the heck was Hansanator playing at? I'm really confused, because I thought I had done good my first time around, and my whole theory was waaaay off.
Also, I probably won't be available tomorrow, and limited posting through Tuesday, so I'll probably only be responding to posts with my name in them until then.
Teia
What is your current read on Wheaties? Please provide reasoning as well.
There were two kills overnight, which means that one was likely a vig shot. I don't know what to make of the fact that Wheat claimed vig and wasn't killed (as one would think the scum would go after an un-counterclaimed PR), and it's hard to speculate without slipping into WIFOM. As it stands, the most straightforward answer is that Wheat's claim was genuine and that he's actually town.
-
Jay, would you mind explaining this post? You hammered one of your "three most suspicious individuals" and then immediately started feeling guilty over a mislynch? You said that "without more information we're going nowhere," so if you were lynching him to gain information rather than because you thought he was scum, why feel guilty?
Also: V/LA over the weekend. FNM tonight and all-day stuff on Saturday and probably Sunday as well, so I won't have time to do anything heavy until Monday.
So, what the heck was Hansanator playing at? I'm really confused, because I thought I had done good my first time around, and my whole theory was waaaay off.
He was running a gambit and, like TK in MM7, it blew up in the rest of our faces.
I'm going to use tomorrow (Saturday) to go over interactions in depth. I want to take a hard look at BV, but I need to review everyone.
Wheat - what are your reads on GM and KoolKoal at the moment?
After he answers, please say why you're asking this exact question.
@deadhans: "See, behavior analysis doesn't work because I was purposely acting scummy!" You just made us waste our first lynch to make one person gain town points. We'll talk more about how useless this was post-game.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
Jay, would you mind explaining this post? You hammered one of your "three most suspicious individuals" and then immediately started feeling guilty over a mislynch? You said that "without more information we're going nowhere," so if you were lynching him to gain information rather than because you thought he was scum, why feel guilty
Because I didn't know he was scum, he was just the strongest suspect. Also, feelings about screwing up a game we've been playing for what, Two weeks now, do not have to be rational. Rationally we've gotten a lot of info out of this: Namely that both Hansanator, Arcadic and Iso weren't scum, and that wheat_grinder may be telling the truth about his vig shot. This narrows down the list of suspects considerably, and I'll be going back over the interactions and have something to say by Wednesday (I'll have limited availability till then, as I mentioned before, but I'll try to post daily and respond to anything directed at me).
The revelation that Iso wasn't scum in addition to Han not being scum sets be back a bit, to say the least. I think we can logically assume that at least one scum voted for Han. I can't see three scum buddies resisting that train.
Personally, just looking at your voting history, Teia, you are my strongest candidate for scum right now, as I pointed out in my hammer post you always seemed to be the third person on any given train - but I'd put that at only a strong suspicion right now, I have no conviction behind it.
Flatly calling me scum and voting me doesn't exactly leave much room for constructive response. Especially when you'd already posted this before I posted again. You'd already said you wouldn't provide reasoning for your vote at the moment, so the only question for me to ask (i.e. what your reasoning is) is pointless. Therefore I ignored it.
I gather from this post that Teia does not have a read on Wheaties. There is nothing that indicates a Town or Scum read. It’s simply Teia stating she saw no reason to respond.
The meta argument? Because I thought there was more to it than that and that you'd be building upon your case.
The thing about trying to draw conclusions based on my town meta from MM6 is that MM6 was a trainwreck. You can infer a few things, but saying "scum Teia does this, town Teia does that" doesn't work because you don't have a complete picture to draw upon. Plus you're using secondhand information about a game you can't read personally.
In the next post from Teia we start to see a Scum read on Wheaties. Teia shows how Wheaties is using meta incorrectly and is trying to paint her scum for it. This post may be open for interpretation some since Teia doesn’t directly call Wheaties Scum.
We then go two posts without Teia saying anything about Wheaties until this post:
Also my reasoning for voting Teia was that she was within her scum meta, but it seems that her town meta is no more than a single game.
I'm curious. Given that you can't actually read the games in question, and theoretically shouldn't even be able to read individual posts of mine from those games, on what basis were you so sure of my meta that you were willing to stake your entire case on me on it? It obviously wasn't very much, given that you didn't know my town meta was just MM6. So why did you deem such obviously incomplete information reliable?
There is no question that Teia is finding Wheaties to be Scum here.
Barring highly abnormal circumstances, there's no way you can be 100% certain. Now, this might seem like a trivial semantic nitpick, but I think it's showing a major flaw in your reasoning. You're taking incomplete information and jumping to what you see as infallible conclusions. In other words, you're gaining certainty from uncertain premises. This is the same fundamental problem with your meta case on me, actually. It's a very bad and ultimately detrimental thing for you to do.
You're not using the chart, but you're accusing him of doing something from the chart? Also that section of the chart seems to deal with making up a claim and dropping parts of it, not dropping parts of his arguments. So basically using the chart as an illustration obfuscates things rather than clarifying them.
Low-hanging fruit, low-hanging fruit, and noob (IE low-hanging fruit)
That's not arguing based on merits. If scum make themselves low-hanging fruit, then that status doesn't make going after them any more wrong.
I was told that as town she plays poorly, while as scum she questions a lot.
You were given broad, sweeping, dichotomous generalizations and decided to accept them as truth at face value? That's not just bad, but intellectually dishonest as well.
**** it, I know I was suspicious of Iso earlier, but apparently I was mistaken. Wheat's increasingly scummy the deeper he digs himself. Again, my vote's staying where it is because I think hansanator strongly needs to be lynched, so FOS Wheat_Grinder.
Is where Teia shows, in bold, her suspicion of Wheaties.
Something I am noticing about this post that I did not notice earlier is that Teia dropped her read on Iso because of Wheaties, but then uses reasoning that does not make sense with he read on Iso. “Apparently I was mistaken” does not mean that Teia was reading Iso incorrectly. The fact that Iso flipped Town may support inside information, because the reason used, by Teia, does not make Iso Town. As far as Teia knew both Iso and Wheaties could have been scum at that juncture.
Wheat claimed without being in claim range, and he's claiming to be a vig with Pressure.
Then Iso claims to have Thick Fat as an ability. I'm not going to speculate on what he meant or anything, but I'm just noting because it's another unprompted claim. That said, the accusation of Wheat being a roleblocker is oddly specific. Why roleblocker, specifically?
We get hans' claim, and it's a two-shot commuter that's also a bomb. I don't know how Mafia setups normally go, so I can't gauge the plausibility of a commuter bomb, but it seems anti-synergistic enough that I don't believe it.
So yeah, hans needs to get lynched. I don't know what to make of Wheat's claim at the moment, although I'll be interested to see what, if anything, comes of it.
This post here makes me raise an eyebrow to Teia. Teia just posted the she was “apparently mistaken about Iso”, but in this post she goes after Iso for specifically mentioning a Role Block possibility. If Teia was “mistaken” like she said, then why would Teia need to question Iso about the Role Block comment? This looks like Teia trying to maintain her read on scum read on Iso and Wheaties so that she may go back and forth as she likes.
I can see that, but that seems a bit flavour-game-y to me. You mentioned discussing fakeclaims earlier, though, which is why I was wondering if there was anything more to your reasoning that you'd left out or not.
Next post and Teia continues to question Iso even though Teia was “mistaken”.
If hans flips scum, scrutinize Jay/Void/Wheat/rianalnn. I doubt he'd be foolish enough to list both his buddies in there, but I'd be surprised if that list was all town, and picking from a small pool is more likely to find scum than picking from a larger pool.
Now this is the gem that had me questioning Teia as we went into Night. Teia was all over Wheaties yesterDay. But, prior going into Night, Teia gives herself an out for Wheaties without much of an explanation. Granted the information I am using is implied here, but since Teia posted that if hansanator flips scum, then those 4 should be scrutinized. Then if hansanator flips Town, then those should not be scrutinized is what I get.
Now we are at the start of Day 2 and we know see why I am questioning Teia here. After question Teia I got this response here:
Teia
What is your current read on Wheaties? Please provide reasoning as well.
There were two kills overnight, which means that one was likely a vig shot. I don't know what to make of the fact that Wheat claimed vig and wasn't killed (as one would think the scum would go after an un-counterclaimed PR), and it's hard to speculate without slipping into WIFOM. As it stands, the most straightforward answer is that Wheat's claim was genuine and that he's actually town.
What I see here is Teia attempting to call Wheaties Town in the first sentence, then questiong why Wheaties wasn’t killed if he is Town (calling Wheaties Scum), then going back to saying that his claim is likely genuine and he is likely Town. Any Townie can see that Wheaties is likely to be Town based on his claim. There is supportive evidence to this. But Teia took an extra step by giving herself an out during Day 1 to not vote Wheaties come Day 2. This could be indicative of inside knowledge. If Teia flips scum, then Wheaties will be closer to confirmed Town.
I believe Teia to be scum based on the behavior above.
Void. I hadn't been able to pin down the reason Teia is scum besides meta yet.
Now the question is, do we lynch her or BV? (BV for the opportunistic+bad wagon hopping yesterday + his choice to pressure Wheat (and only wheat) some more when, like void said, any townie should see that wheat is likely town after the results of night 1 matching his claim.)
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
Something I am noticing about this post that I did not notice earlier is that Teia dropped her read on Iso because of Wheaties, but then uses reasoning that does not make sense with he read on Iso. “Apparently I was mistaken” does not mean that Teia was reading Iso incorrectly. The fact that Iso flipped Town may support inside information, because the reason used, by Teia, does not make Iso Town. As far as Teia knew both Iso and Wheaties could have been scum at that juncture.
The reason I said I was mistaken was because Iso provided compelling and reasonable arguments for a scum read on Wheat, as opposed to Wheat's scummy-looking arguments. Sure, as far as I knew, both of them could've been scum, but I deemed this outcome unlikely based upon their interactions.
This post here makes me raise an eyebrow to Teia. Teia just posted the she was “apparently mistaken about Iso”, but in this post she goes after Iso for specifically mentioning a Role Block possibility. If Teia was “mistaken” like she said, then why would Teia need to question Iso about the Role Block comment? This looks like Teia trying to maintain her read on scum read on Iso and Wheaties so that she may go back and forth as she likes.
Asking questions of people and casting suspicion on them are two different things. I asked about the roleblocker possibility because I was curious to see whether Iso had anything more to support the argument or not. Questioning can be used to help expand arguments as well as cast suspicion on someone. Don't read too much into the fact that I asked a simple question.
Now this is the gem that had me questioning Teia as we went into Night. Teia was all over Wheaties yesterDay. But, prior going into Night, Teia gives herself an out for Wheaties without much of an explanation. Granted the information I am using is implied here, but since Teia posted that if hansanator flips scum, then those 4 should be scrutinized. Then if hansanator flips Town, then those should not be scrutinized is what I get.
This is a false dichotomy. In no way did I say that those players shouldn't be scrutinized if hans flips town. The reality was simply that hans listing those four players becomes null if he flips town (whereas if he were to flip scum, then those players should be scrutinized as it's a standard scum tactic to include a buddy in a list of scum reads). As you can see, I already started into questioning Jay today, so clearly I don't think that hans flipping town means they're automatically cleared as a result of that.
What I see here is Teia attempting to call Wheaties Town in the first sentence, then questiong why Wheaties wasn’t killed if he is Town (calling Wheaties Scum), then going back to saying that his claim is likely genuine and he is likely Town. Any Townie can see that Wheaties is likely to be Town based on his claim. There is supportive evidence to this. But Teia took an extra step by giving herself an out during Day 1 to not vote Wheaties come Day 2. This could be indicative of inside knowledge. If Teia flips scum, then Wheaties will be closer to confirmed Town.
It was a musing based off the one thing that stuck out in my mind as inexplicable. You're leaping to conclusions by saying the middle sentence is calling him scum, since the scum could've just as easily left Wheat alive in hopes that this exact outcome would happen: That he'd shoot a townie. Or that they figured he wouldn't shoot anyone tonight and they could target him for a mislynch. Speculating on that is largely pointless, however, which is why I simply chose to note the fact that an un-counterclaimed PR was left alive (which in and of itself doesn't necessarily mean that said person is scum—after all, the scum shot Iso instead of me in MM6) and continue from there into an overall town read.
EBWODP since Void can't read MM6: What happened there was that I was the doctor, got run up to claim range day 1, and the scum shot Iso rather than me overnight.
Also I was going to include a response to this in with my reread but it turns out I have things to do today so a full reread will have to wait and I might as well respond to this now.
Because I didn't know he was scum, he was just the strongest suspect. Also, feelings about screwing up a game we've been playing for what, Two weeks now, do not have to be rational.
Short of something like an investigation result from a confirmed cop, there's no way to know a living (or just-lynched) player's alignment for certain. One simply has to decide what they feel to be the most likely possibility based upon available evidence. What set off an alarm bell is that you immediately started feeling guilty about lynching one of your most suspicious players (your strongest suspect, as it turns out), along with the way you worded that post implying that you knew at the time that it was a mislynch.
wheat_grinder may be telling the truth about his vig shot
Is there any good reason to assume he might be lying, and therefore emphasize that he "may be telling the truth"? Based upon the available evidence, I don't see any reason to doubt his claim, so the emphasis seems strange to me.
Personally, just looking at your voting history, Teia, you are my strongest candidate for scum right now, as I pointed out in my hammer post you always seemed to be the third person on any given train - but I'd put that at only a strong suspicion right now, I have no conviction behind it.
This argument lacks enough data points to establish a pattern, and even that's ignoring that I was never intentionally the third on the wagon with any of my votes (Jay's unvote nathed my vote on hans by 2 minutes, and I was either second or fourth on KK's wagon depending on whether you ignore RVS votes or not). Why did you leap to a conclusion so blatantly unsupported by the facts?
Something I am noticing about this post that I did not notice earlier is that Teia dropped her read on Iso because of Wheaties, but then uses reasoning that does not make sense with he read on Iso. “Apparently I was mistaken” does not mean that Teia was reading Iso incorrectly. The fact that Iso flipped Town may support inside information, because the reason used, by Teia, does not make Iso Town. As far as Teia knew both Iso and Wheaties could have been scum at that juncture.
The reason I said I was mistaken was because Iso provided compelling and reasonable arguments for a scum read on Wheat, as opposed to Wheat's scummy-looking arguments. Sure, as far as I knew, both of them could've been scum, but I deemed this outcome unlikely based upon their interactions.
If Iso provided compelling and reasonable arguments, then why did you consider Iso to be scum in the first place?
This post here makes me raise an eyebrow to Teia. Teia just posted the she was “apparently mistaken about Iso”, but in this post she goes after Iso for specifically mentioning a Role Block possibility. If Teia was “mistaken” like she said, then why would Teia need to question Iso about the Role Block comment? This looks like Teia trying to maintain her read on scum read on Iso and Wheaties so that she may go back and forth as she likes.
Asking questions of people and casting suspicion on them are two different things. I asked about the roleblocker possibility because I was curious to see whether Iso had anything more to support the argument or not. Questioning can be used to help expand arguments as well as cast suspicion on someone. Don't read too much into the fact that I asked a simple question.
You do know that a Role Blocker is a more common Scum role than a Town Role, right?
If Iso did have reason to support a Role Blocker ability in this game, what would have expected from a TownIso?
Are you saying that you were arguing with Iso over the possibility of a Role Blocker in the game? What benefit would you have gotten from this?
Now this is the gem that had me questioning Teia as we went into Night. Teia was all over Wheaties yesterDay. But, prior going into Night, Teia gives herself an out for Wheaties without much of an explanation. Granted the information I am using is implied here, but since Teia posted that if hansanator flips scum, then those 4 should be scrutinized. Then if hansanator flips Town, then those should not be scrutinized is what I get.
This is a false dichotomy. In no way did I say that those players shouldn't be scrutinized if hans flips town. The reality was simply that hans listing those four players becomes null if he flips town (whereas if he were to flip scum, then those players should be scrutinized as it's a standard scum tactic to include a buddy in a list of scum reads). As you can see, I already started into questioning Jay today, so clearly I don't think that hans flipping town means they're automatically cleared as a result of that.
How does hansanator flipping Town make his statement null? If anything I would view those 4 players as null if hansanator flipped Scum, because then we don’t know what he was doing and it is simply WIFOM. Scum do not always put a Scum buddy in that listing. Do you know how accurate your statement is? As in, have you gone through the Mafia games on this site and looked at the information?
With hansanator flipping Town we know that there could be, and more likely is, some truth in what he posted, but we have a Scum member right here in you, Teia.
Where did I say that hansanator flipping Town means they are cleared? Because I never said they would be confirmed Town or cleared. I used your line of reasoning to provide an accurate assumption based on that post. I do have to ask now, though, what are your reads on the 4 players you mentioned now that hansanator has flipped scum? (Exclude Wheaties since you already answered this one)
What I see here is Teia attempting to call Wheaties Town in the first sentence, then questiong why Wheaties wasn’t killed if he is Town (calling Wheaties Scum), then going back to saying that his claim is likely genuine and he is likely Town. Any Townie can see that Wheaties is likely to be Town based on his claim. There is supportive evidence to this. But Teia took an extra step by giving herself an out during Day 1 to not vote Wheaties come Day 2. This could be indicative of inside knowledge. If Teia flips scum, then Wheaties will be closer to confirmed Town.
It was a musing based off the one thing that stuck out in my mind as inexplicable. You're leaping to conclusions by saying the middle sentence is calling him scum, since the scum could've just as easily left Wheat alive in hopes that this exact outcome would happen: That he'd shoot a townie. Or that they figured he wouldn't shoot anyone tonight and they could target him for a mislynch. Speculating on that is largely pointless, however, which is why I simply chose to note the fact that an un-counterclaimed PR was left alive (which in and of itself doesn't necessarily mean that said person is scum—after all, the scum shot Iso instead of me in MM6) and continue from there into an overall town read.
Bringing up WIFOM like you did in that post will come across as calling someone Scum. You were willing speculate on the WIFOM about Wheaties which means that you are not sold on Wheaties being Town. It’s in the words that chose to use, Teia. You are showing the Town exactly what you are thinking.
Sorry everyone. I just got out of a work training, and I've got two hours until I need to leave for a Fire Dept Training, but I'll be more active tomorrow.
What I do recommend doing is looking at the 7 people who voted for Hans, as it's very likeley at least one or more Scum voted. When we remove Iso and Arcadic we have 5 candidates (Including me). 4 if you believe I'm town, which leaves Teia, Kaburi, Ria and GM.
Short of something like an investigation result from a confirmed cop, there's no way to know a living (or just-lynched) player's alignment for certain. One simply has to decide what they feel to be the most likely possibility based upon available evidence. What set off an alarm bell is that you immediately started feeling guilty about lynching one of your most suspicious players (your strongest suspect, as it turns out), along with the way you worded that post implying that you knew at the time that it was a mislynch.
Looking back, it sure did seem like that. What happened is that I was confident until right after I pushed submit, and then doubt settled in more firmly, follow by vindication at Hans' weird post-hammer post, followed by disappointment at the morning's reveal that we lost three townies anyway.
there any good reason to assume he might be lying, and therefore emphasize that he "may be telling the truth"? Based upon the available evidence, I don't see any reason to doubt his claim, so the emphasis seems strange to me.
Just to emphasize that there is no 100% certainty (couldn't he be scum with the ability to kill a second person overnight?), but I believe Wheaties. As my post from a few pages ago said, if Hans flipped town I would think Wheaties was town.
This argument lacks enough data points to establish a pattern, and even that's ignoring that I was never intentionally the third on the wagon with any of my votes (Jay's unvote nathed my vote on hans by 2 minutes, and I was either second or fourth on KK's wagon depending on whether you ignore RVS votes or not). Why did you leap to a conclusion so blatantly unsupported by the facts?
To get you to explain those votes and see how you'd react. Isn't that the whole point of this game?
Now the question is, do we lynch her or BV? (BV for the opportunistic+bad wagon hopping yesterday + his choice to pressure Wheat (and only wheat) some more when, like void said, any townie should see that wheat is likely town after the results of night 1 matching his claim.)
I'm more inclined to a Teia lynch at this point. Her behavior at the end of Day 1 is too suspect.
BV's behavior was at least consistant in regards to Wheaties claim. The opportunistic jump from one wagon to another is something to look at, but doesn't look nerly as bad as Teia's sudden change on Wheaties.
What I see here is Teia attempting to call Wheaties Town in the first sentence, then questiong why Wheaties wasn’t killed if he is Town (calling Wheaties Scum), then going back to saying that his claim is likely genuine and he is likely Town. Any Townie can see that Wheaties is likely to be Town based on his claim. There is supportive evidence to this. But Teia took an extra step by giving herself an out during Day 1 to not vote Wheaties come Day 2. This could be indicative of inside knowledge. If Teia flips scum, then Wheaties will be closer to confirmed Town.
I believe Teia to be scum based on the behavior above.
Vote: Teia
I'm still not getting a scum read on Teia, and I'm not comfortable lynching her just yet. Void's walls o'text haven't shown me anything damning that she's done or said. This quote in particular bothers me. I don't see that second sentence as her calling Wheaties scum.
It's indicative of a pattern in Void's posts that strikes me as off. The constant "as any townie can see" and the harping on her word choice as "effectively calling someone scum"....it bothers me. It's like he's strectching to find scumminess in her posts.
THIS IS NOT ME CALLING YOU SCUM VOID. THIS IS ME STATING AN OPINION ABOUT YOUR POSTING STYLE THAT LIKELY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR ALIGNMENT.
(I feel like I needed to shout that.)
I'm not seeing the malice in her posts that he sees.
My reread so far has done nothing to help me figure out BV. He's tripping my scumdar but I can't nail down why.
I'm going to try and make a post in this game toNight since I've sort of been ignoring it in favor of my other games.
bolding mine; you're not using that convention correctly – this would be a reference to the Game's Night 2. toDay = this game Day. toNight = next Game Night.
I'm still not getting a scum read on Teia, and I'm not comfortable lynching her just yet. Void's walls o'text haven't shown me anything damning that she's done or said. This quote in particular bothers me. I don't see that second sentence as her calling Wheaties scum.
It's indicative of a pattern in Void's posts that strikes me as off. The constant "as any townie can see" and the harping on her word choice as "effectively calling someone scum"....it bothers me. It's like he's strectching to find scumminess in her posts.
THIS IS NOT ME CALLING YOU SCUM VOID. THIS IS ME STATING AN OPINION ABOUT YOUR POSTING STYLE THAT LIKELY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR ALIGNMENT.
(I feel like I needed to shout that.)
I'm not seeing the malice in her posts that he sees.
My reread so far has done nothing to help me figure out BV. He's tripping my scumdar but I can't nail down why.
I don't remember you being this anxious/wishy-washy in MM7. I'm going to have to reread the game.
Probably going to reread to get more conclusive evidence on BV, aiming to complete the case when he's back from v/la.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
I'm going to try and make a post in this game toNight since I've sort of been ignoring it in favor of my other games.
bolding mine; you're not using that convention correctly – this would be a reference to the Game's Night 2. toDay = this game Day. toNight = next Game Night.
I've lost momentum x_x
Re-reading Day 1.
whoops. I'm so used to saying toDay and toNight in the context of mafia.
I had meant to post last night but got sidetracked. Today I'm (supposed to be) studying for a final so it'll have to be tomorrow for content.
I don't remember you being this anxious/wishy-washy in MM7. I'm going to have to reread the game.
It's because I don't have a mentor chat this time.
My mentor chat with Megiddo in MM7 was full of this kind of anxiety, because that's where I did all my note-taking and thinking, and I really didn't start cross-posting my thought processes into the actual game thread until after I got forced into that claim. I'm pretty sure the link is in the postgame if you want to read it.
So you didn't have someone to stop you from saying "you are stretching to put a case on Teia, Void" and then follow it up with "BUT I DON'T THINK YOU'RE SCUM!"...? If you observe something that you find scummy, there's pretty much no risk for a townie to toss him some pressure, like this:
Void's case relies too much on Teia saying she was "mistaken" about Iso; people are allowed to change their reads, and I didn't think any of the insinuations that she thought he was still scum after saying that held water. There is also his weird attempt to suggest that Iso saying Wheat could be a roleblocker somehow means that Iso is scum, which seems to be based on setup speculation that roleblockers are scum more often than town.
Vote Void!
I could see KK and Void as scum based on their interactions today, where KK is like "oh yeah that's why Teia is scum" but fails to vote her, and he also defend's Void's case against kaburi without commenting on the case again. In both cases, he hints at trying to start a wagon on BV, who some (including me) listed as a scummy candidate on Day 1. It's almost like KK sees that Void's case is bad and is trying to get him to switch tacks before he wrecks himself. I can't say any of this absolves kaburi though, his post about Void was definitely weird.
I checked back on Arcadic, he only had 8 posts and they were pretty focused on hans, and also that he is sure that Jay is town. He wouldn't have any reason to lie about that as town himself, and he refused to answer when I asked why he specifically thought Jay was vanilla, but it seems like +town points for him.
So you didn't have someone to stop you from saying "you are stretching to put a case on Teia, Void" and then follow it up with "BUT I DON'T THINK YOU'RE SCUM!"...? If you observe something that you find scummy, there's pretty much no risk for a townie to toss him some pressure, like this:
Void's case relies too much on Teia saying she was "mistaken" about Iso; people are allowed to change their reads, and I didn't think any of the insinuations that she thought he was still scum after saying that held water. There is also his weird attempt to suggest that Iso saying Wheat could be a roleblocker somehow means that Iso is scum, which seems to be based on setup speculation that roleblockers are scum more often than town.
Where on earth did you get that I don't find Teia scummy?
Teia's word choice is there. "I was mistaken". There is no doubt in those words. Teia KNEW she was mistaken. That is what my case is built up on. You are trying to take what Teia said and throw doubt onto it. Why are you doing this?
I could see KK and Void as scum based on their interactions today, where KK is like "oh yeah that's why Teia is scum" but fails to vote her, and he also defend's Void's case against kaburi without commenting on the case again. In both cases, he hints at trying to start a wagon on BV, who some (including me) listed as a scummy candidate on Day 1. It's almost like KK sees that Void's case is bad and is trying to get him to switch tacks before he wrecks himself. I can't say any of this absolves kaburi though, his post about Void was definitely weird.
KK didn't vote Teia becuase KK is not sure if BV is the better lynch or not. You twisted this one so hard that MY brain was hurting after reading that.
It's okay for you not to comment on the case, but if KK doesn't you brand him scum for it? Yeah, you're Scum this game.
Unvote Vote: Gerrad's Mom
What kind of reverse pyschology are using? Seiously, you're reading way too much into what KK posted there. It's so much of a stretch that I can't phathom how you came to that conclusion.
I checked back on Arcadic, he only had 8 posts and they were pretty focused on hans, and also that he is sure that Jay is town. He wouldn't have any reason to lie about that as town himself, and he refused to answer when I asked why he specifically thought Jay was vanilla, but it seems like +town points for him.
Since Arcadic flipped Town we know one thing for fact: That Arcadic didn't know the alignments of anyone else. You giving Jay +Town points for Arcadic believing him to be Town makes no sense.
We can deal with Teia later. I am certain that GM is scum this game.
he hints at trying to start a wagon on BV, who some (including me) listed as a scummy candidate on Day 1. It's almost like KK sees that Void's case is bad and is trying to get him to switch tacks before he wrecks himself. I can't say any of this absolves kaburi though, his post about Void was definitely weird.
In addition to what Void said, I started calling BV scum back in post 222. I'm pretty sure that makes me the first, but I didn't dig around to check. You didn't call BV scummy until almost 100 posts later, for example :teach:.
The massive fence-sit on kaburi is classic scum GM as well -> kaburi is ~not absolved of any of this~ because his post was weird, not that you even say what he could have been absolved of, just that you're still allowed to look at him negatively.
Vote Gerrard's Mom
Aside: I'm loling at the correlation between the scummy players and their inability to see Jay is obvtown right now. Are all the scum scared that the other options are going to be too townie to mislynch so they have to keep jay as an option because he's new? Possible, though unlikely that they all fell into this trap.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
So you didn't have someone to stop you from saying "you are stretching to put a case on Teia, Void" and then follow it up with "BUT I DON'T THINK YOU'RE SCUM!"...? If you observe something that you find scummy, there's pretty much no risk for a townie to toss him some pressure
Allow me to clarify. I feel like something's off with Void, but I can't tell if it's simply because of his posting style. Void is a very experienced mafia player, and his posting style is very verbose and academic. I can't tell if he's town!Void laying out a case he legitimately believes, or if he's scum!Void trying to dress up a flimsy case in pretty language and certainties in an effort to take advantage of the fact that modfias pull from a significantly less experienced pool of players to steer the townies into mislynching.
Having seen how he and I are reading Teia's words completely differently, I wanted to make it perfectly clear that I was stating my thought processes, not making a formal accusation against him. I don't have a read on him right now, because I don't have enough confidence in my ability to read people to know which of the two possibilities I described above is actually going on here.
Because I thought she had more games and thus learning from mistakes would not be a large factor.
In addition, some otherwise intelligent players do have very strong meta tells. Just ask Void; Iso used to be able to figure out his alignment within a single post.
It's all a case of my information being wildly incomplete. You silly mods with your hidden games.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'm sorry for being a bull in the china shop, but I have to play it like I see it, whether or not I see it correctly.
TerribleBad at Magic since 1998.A Vorthos Guide to Magic Story | Twitter | Tumblr
[Primer] Krenko | Azor | Kess | Zacama | Kumena | Sram | The Ur-Dragon | Edgar Markov | Daretti | Marath
Uneasiness immediately after hammering? C'mon Jay, you're better than this!
Anyways, I applaud you for your initiative. People need to be more like you.
I suppose this is my official "bah" post, and I'd like to make it memorable.
First off, I'd like to thank Megiddo for everything he did to make this game possible. 'Twas fun stuff.
Next, I'd like to thank everyone who participated. You guys are like the jelly inside of the doughnut. I was quite surprised that you guys put up with my as long as you did. I apologize to any of you who I annoyed/deceived/anything else. I was just putting my amazing scheme into motion, so no hard feeling to you guys.
Good luck to all of you in your future endeavors. I have provided you guys with a plethora of useful information. Use it, and be successful.
But alas, I can see the light fading, and my limbs getting cold. It appears it is time for me to depart from the land of the living. Go on without me! I'm sure we will meet again some day!
(P.S. I'm looking for some constructive criticism regarding my play this game. If anyone has any input, feel free to share!)
Previous Mafia Experience:
Mafia aligned: 2/0 -100%
Town aligned: 4/3 - 57%
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
No comment.
*Dies*
Previous Mafia Experience:
Mafia aligned: 2/0 -100%
Town aligned: 4/3 - 57%
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'm only cold and emotionless to people I know in real life.
To my internet friends, my heart is wide open.
TerribleBad at Magic since 1998.A Vorthos Guide to Magic Story | Twitter | Tumblr
[Primer] Krenko | Azor | Kess | Zacama | Kumena | Sram | The Ur-Dragon | Edgar Markov | Daretti | Marath
TerribleBad at Magic since 1998.A Vorthos Guide to Magic Story | Twitter | Tumblr
[Primer] Krenko | Azor | Kess | Zacama | Kumena | Sram | The Ur-Dragon | Edgar Markov | Daretti | Marath
Also, I forgot to mention: stop using behavioral analysis. It doesn't work.
The fact that I had a brilliant scheme and a completely illogical strategy =/= I'm scum.
I did everything to benefit you guys, whether you know it or not.
Heed my words: there was a master plan; everything happened for a reason.
*dies again*
Previous Mafia Experience:
Mafia aligned: 2/0 -100%
Town aligned: 4/3 - 57%
hansanator (7): Arcadic; Teia Rabishu; kaburi; Iso; rianalnn; Gerrard's Mom; Jay13x
Iso (1): Wheat_Grinder
Wheat_Grinder (2): Void; BlackVise
---
The Pokémon gathered together and pushed hansanator to the front. Noland looked on, quizzically.
"What, I have to do it?"
Annoyed, he grabbed a Pokéball from one of the surrounding crates and tossed it. Out came a Linoone, which stared hansanator down.
"Linoone, use Giga Impact! Or whatever. I don't know what moves you have."
Settling for nothing less than mediocrity, the Linoone Tackled hansanator, knocking him out in a single blow.
"Now, let's see what we've got to work with," said Noland, pulling out his Pokédex.
GALLADE
BLADE
114.6lb
Ability
Justified: Whenever you become the target of one or more Moves at Night, you gain an extra vote Tomorrow.
Move
(2PP) Swagger: Target a player at Night. If they use a Move Tonight, it will be forced to target you.
---
It is now Night 1.
You have 72 hours to submit Night actions to me. If you have an optional action you wish not to take, please let me know.
The spectator group is now open! If you signed up pregame, you will be receiving the spectator thread link shortly. If you wish to spectate, PM me.
"One, two, six, nine... we're missing two."
The assembled Pokémon looked amongst themselves, and indeed, there were two fewer than there were just yesterday.
"Somebody find their Pokéballs."
The group scattered, and after a few minutes reconvened. Two Pokéballs were laid at Noland's feet. He picked the first up and opened it. Arcadic's limp body came out and, with a crackle, flopped onto the floor.
Noland grabbed his Pokédex again.
AMPHAROS
LIGHT
135.6lb
Ability
Static: You have no special abilities.
Move
Struggle: You have no Moves.
SNORLAX
SLEEPING
1014.1lb
Ability
Thick Fat: You have no special abilities.
Move
(1PP) Odor Sleuth: Target a player at Night to learn their alignment.
"Fix this," he said, just before turning on his heel and walking into the back room of the Factory.
---
It is now Day 2
The deadline is 18 days, or August 20th, 11:59PM EST
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch!
---
I thought of a cool idea in the car that I will be implementing starting now.
Deadline Extensions
During the game, there are up to three deadline extensions available. These extensions may be requested by the players at any time in the thread, and may be granted at my sole discretion. Don't be mad if I say no.
The options are as follows:
- Once a particular extension is used, it cannot be used again that same game.
- Any number of extensions can be used in the same game Day.
- If the players do not specify which extension they wish to use (or if there is no consensus on which one to use), I will pick the remaining option highest up on the list.
- Extensions are appended to the deadline time. There's no need to strategically time when the request is made.
- At least two players must request an extension for it to be considered.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I was right that Iso could be killed but wrong about his alignment. And he was the friggin cop too.
I have probably screwed us over and I take a large share of the responsibility if we lose.
The gamestate is obviously not what I thought it was and I need to re-evaluate. Badly.
I vigged town!Iso.
What is your current read on Wheaties? Please provide reasoning as well.
Wheat did say he was a vig and that he was going to shoot Iso, but I guess it could have been the night kill. That doesn't explain how Arcadic died though. I recall both Void and Wheat mentioning Occam's Razor...here it would seem to suggest that Wheat misvigged and the scum killed Arcadic.
I'll check back, but hansanator is the only person I remember Arcadic going after. We had a lot of good discussion, I should be able to reread with the new information in mind this weekend.
Also, I probably won't be available tomorrow, and limited posting through Tuesday, so I'll probably only be responding to posts with my name in them until then.
TerribleBad at Magic since 1998.A Vorthos Guide to Magic Story | Twitter | Tumblr
[Primer] Krenko | Azor | Kess | Zacama | Kumena | Sram | The Ur-Dragon | Edgar Markov | Daretti | Marath
It wasn't a spreadsheet, it was a flowchart.
Either way, it wasn't.
I blame Iso.
There were two kills overnight, which means that one was likely a vig shot. I don't know what to make of the fact that Wheat claimed vig and wasn't killed (as one would think the scum would go after an un-counterclaimed PR), and it's hard to speculate without slipping into WIFOM. As it stands, the most straightforward answer is that Wheat's claim was genuine and that he's actually town.
-
Jay, would you mind explaining this post? You hammered one of your "three most suspicious individuals" and then immediately started feeling guilty over a mislynch? You said that "without more information we're going nowhere," so if you were lynching him to gain information rather than because you thought he was scum, why feel guilty?
Also: V/LA over the weekend. FNM tonight and all-day stuff on Saturday and probably Sunday as well, so I won't have time to do anything heavy until Monday.
He was running a gambit and, like TK in MM7, it blew up in the rest of our faces.
I'm going to use tomorrow (Saturday) to go over interactions in depth. I want to take a hard look at BV, but I need to review everyone.
@_kaburi_ on Twitter
Special thanks to Serrot_29 for Catbug'mrakul!
@deadhans: "See, behavior analysis doesn't work because I was purposely acting scummy!" You just made us waste our first lynch to make one person gain town points. We'll talk more about how useless this was post-game.
Because I didn't know he was scum, he was just the strongest suspect. Also, feelings about screwing up a game we've been playing for what, Two weeks now, do not have to be rational. Rationally we've gotten a lot of info out of this: Namely that both Hansanator, Arcadic and Iso weren't scum, and that wheat_grinder may be telling the truth about his vig shot. This narrows down the list of suspects considerably, and I'll be going back over the interactions and have something to say by Wednesday (I'll have limited availability till then, as I mentioned before, but I'll try to post daily and respond to anything directed at me).
The revelation that Iso wasn't scum in addition to Han not being scum sets be back a bit, to say the least. I think we can logically assume that at least one scum voted for Han. I can't see three scum buddies resisting that train.
Personally, just looking at your voting history, Teia, you are my strongest candidate for scum right now, as I pointed out in my hammer post you always seemed to be the third person on any given train - but I'd put that at only a strong suspicion right now, I have no conviction behind it.
TerribleBad at Magic since 1998.A Vorthos Guide to Magic Story | Twitter | Tumblr
[Primer] Krenko | Azor | Kess | Zacama | Kumena | Sram | The Ur-Dragon | Edgar Markov | Daretti | Marath
V/LA until August 8th due to a midterm and a final
I apologize for the inconvenience, especially given the timing. I promise to have much more content on the other side of the 8th to make up for it.
lose my shirt at blackjack and spend the rest of my Sunday at the poolgamble@_kaburi_ on Twitter
Special thanks to Serrot_29 for Catbug'mrakul!
*tries to figure out extension rules*
I guess things should get moving again tomorrow, I still need to check if Arcadic shared any reads
I have my reason which I will reveal later.
Teia
I will respond later today.
Activity was great Yesterday, please make an effort to keep it so Today.
I don't think there are any votes out, but if there are that will go up tonight as well.
First time Teia mentions Wheaties is in this post here where Wheaties called Teia for not commenting on him calling her scum. The post for reference:
I gather from this post that Teia does not have a read on Wheaties. There is nothing that indicates a Town or Scum read. It’s simply Teia stating she saw no reason to respond.
In the next post from Teia we start to see a Scum read on Wheaties. Teia shows how Wheaties is using meta incorrectly and is trying to paint her scum for it. This post may be open for interpretation some since Teia doesn’t directly call Wheaties Scum.
We then go two posts without Teia saying anything about Wheaties until this post:
There is no question that Teia is finding Wheaties to be Scum here.
The next post here:
Is where Teia shows, in bold, her suspicion of Wheaties.
Something I am noticing about this post that I did not notice earlier is that Teia dropped her read on Iso because of Wheaties, but then uses reasoning that does not make sense with he read on Iso. “Apparently I was mistaken” does not mean that Teia was reading Iso incorrectly. The fact that Iso flipped Town may support inside information, because the reason used, by Teia, does not make Iso Town. As far as Teia knew both Iso and Wheaties could have been scum at that juncture.
This post here makes me raise an eyebrow to Teia. Teia just posted the she was “apparently mistaken about Iso”, but in this post she goes after Iso for specifically mentioning a Role Block possibility. If Teia was “mistaken” like she said, then why would Teia need to question Iso about the Role Block comment? This looks like Teia trying to maintain her read on scum read on Iso and Wheaties so that she may go back and forth as she likes.
Next post and Teia continues to question Iso even though Teia was “mistaken”.
Now this is the gem that had me questioning Teia as we went into Night. Teia was all over Wheaties yesterDay. But, prior going into Night, Teia gives herself an out for Wheaties without much of an explanation. Granted the information I am using is implied here, but since Teia posted that if hansanator flips scum, then those 4 should be scrutinized. Then if hansanator flips Town, then those should not be scrutinized is what I get.
Now we are at the start of Day 2 and we know see why I am questioning Teia here. After question Teia I got this response here:
What I see here is Teia attempting to call Wheaties Town in the first sentence, then questiong why Wheaties wasn’t killed if he is Town (calling Wheaties Scum), then going back to saying that his claim is likely genuine and he is likely Town. Any Townie can see that Wheaties is likely to be Town based on his claim. There is supportive evidence to this. But Teia took an extra step by giving herself an out during Day 1 to not vote Wheaties come Day 2. This could be indicative of inside knowledge. If Teia flips scum, then Wheaties will be closer to confirmed Town.
I believe Teia to be scum based on the behavior above.
Vote: Teia
Now the question is, do we lynch her or BV? (BV for the opportunistic+bad wagon hopping yesterday + his choice to pressure Wheat (and only wheat) some more when, like void said, any townie should see that wheat is likely town after the results of night 1 matching his claim.)
The reason I said I was mistaken was because Iso provided compelling and reasonable arguments for a scum read on Wheat, as opposed to Wheat's scummy-looking arguments. Sure, as far as I knew, both of them could've been scum, but I deemed this outcome unlikely based upon their interactions.
Asking questions of people and casting suspicion on them are two different things. I asked about the roleblocker possibility because I was curious to see whether Iso had anything more to support the argument or not. Questioning can be used to help expand arguments as well as cast suspicion on someone. Don't read too much into the fact that I asked a simple question.
This is a false dichotomy. In no way did I say that those players shouldn't be scrutinized if hans flips town. The reality was simply that hans listing those four players becomes null if he flips town (whereas if he were to flip scum, then those players should be scrutinized as it's a standard scum tactic to include a buddy in a list of scum reads). As you can see, I already started into questioning Jay today, so clearly I don't think that hans flipping town means they're automatically cleared as a result of that.
It was a musing based off the one thing that stuck out in my mind as inexplicable. You're leaping to conclusions by saying the middle sentence is calling him scum, since the scum could've just as easily left Wheat alive in hopes that this exact outcome would happen: That he'd shoot a townie. Or that they figured he wouldn't shoot anyone tonight and they could target him for a mislynch. Speculating on that is largely pointless, however, which is why I simply chose to note the fact that an un-counterclaimed PR was left alive (which in and of itself doesn't necessarily mean that said person is scum—after all, the scum shot Iso instead of me in MM6) and continue from there into an overall town read.
Teia Rabishu (1): Void
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch!
Nobody is in prod range yet, though a few of you are cutting it close.
Short of something like an investigation result from a confirmed cop, there's no way to know a living (or just-lynched) player's alignment for certain. One simply has to decide what they feel to be the most likely possibility based upon available evidence. What set off an alarm bell is that you immediately started feeling guilty about lynching one of your most suspicious players (your strongest suspect, as it turns out), along with the way you worded that post implying that you knew at the time that it was a mislynch.
Is there any good reason to assume he might be lying, and therefore emphasize that he "may be telling the truth"? Based upon the available evidence, I don't see any reason to doubt his claim, so the emphasis seems strange to me.
This argument lacks enough data points to establish a pattern, and even that's ignoring that I was never intentionally the third on the wagon with any of my votes (Jay's unvote nathed my vote on hans by 2 minutes, and I was either second or fourth on KK's wagon depending on whether you ignore RVS votes or not). Why did you leap to a conclusion so blatantly unsupported by the facts?
If Iso provided compelling and reasonable arguments, then why did you consider Iso to be scum in the first place?
You do know that a Role Blocker is a more common Scum role than a Town Role, right?
If Iso did have reason to support a Role Blocker ability in this game, what would have expected from a TownIso?
Are you saying that you were arguing with Iso over the possibility of a Role Blocker in the game? What benefit would you have gotten from this?
How does hansanator flipping Town make his statement null? If anything I would view those 4 players as null if hansanator flipped Scum, because then we don’t know what he was doing and it is simply WIFOM. Scum do not always put a Scum buddy in that listing. Do you know how accurate your statement is? As in, have you gone through the Mafia games on this site and looked at the information?
With hansanator flipping Town we know that there could be, and more likely is, some truth in what he posted, but we have a Scum member right here in you, Teia.
Where did I say that hansanator flipping Town means they are cleared? Because I never said they would be confirmed Town or cleared. I used your line of reasoning to provide an accurate assumption based on that post. I do have to ask now, though, what are your reads on the 4 players you mentioned now that hansanator has flipped scum? (Exclude Wheaties since you already answered this one)
Bringing up WIFOM like you did in that post will come across as calling someone Scum. You were willing speculate on the WIFOM about Wheaties which means that you are not sold on Wheaties being Town. It’s in the words that chose to use, Teia. You are showing the Town exactly what you are thinking.
What I do recommend doing is looking at the 7 people who voted for Hans, as it's very likeley at least one or more Scum voted. When we remove Iso and Arcadic we have 5 candidates (Including me). 4 if you believe I'm town, which leaves Teia, Kaburi, Ria and GM.
Looking back, it sure did seem like that. What happened is that I was confident until right after I pushed submit, and then doubt settled in more firmly, follow by vindication at Hans' weird post-hammer post, followed by disappointment at the morning's reveal that we lost three townies anyway.
Just to emphasize that there is no 100% certainty (couldn't he be scum with the ability to kill a second person overnight?), but I believe Wheaties. As my post from a few pages ago said, if Hans flipped town I would think Wheaties was town.
To get you to explain those votes and see how you'd react. Isn't that the whole point of this game?
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I'm more inclined to a Teia lynch at this point. Her behavior at the end of Day 1 is too suspect.
BV's behavior was at least consistant in regards to Wheaties claim. The opportunistic jump from one wagon to another is something to look at, but doesn't look nerly as bad as Teia's sudden change on Wheaties.
I'm still not getting a scum read on Teia, and I'm not comfortable lynching her just yet. Void's walls o'text haven't shown me anything damning that she's done or said. This quote in particular bothers me. I don't see that second sentence as her calling Wheaties scum.
It's indicative of a pattern in Void's posts that strikes me as off. The constant "as any townie can see" and the harping on her word choice as "effectively calling someone scum"....it bothers me. It's like he's strectching to find scumminess in her posts.
THIS IS NOT ME CALLING YOU SCUM VOID. THIS IS ME STATING AN OPINION ABOUT YOUR POSTING STYLE THAT LIKELY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR ALIGNMENT.
(I feel like I needed to shout that.)
I'm not seeing the malice in her posts that he sees.
My reread so far has done nothing to help me figure out BV. He's tripping my scumdar but I can't nail down why.
@_kaburi_ on Twitter
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bolding mine; you're not using that convention correctly – this would be a reference to the Game's Night 2. toDay = this game Day. toNight = next Game Night.
I've lost momentum x_x
Re-reading Day 1.
Probably going to reread to get more conclusive evidence on BV, aiming to complete the case when he's back from v/la.
whoops. I'm so used to saying toDay and toNight in the context of mafia.
I had meant to post last night but got sidetracked. Today I'm (supposed to be) studying for a final so it'll have to be tomorrow for content.
It's because I don't have a mentor chat this time.
My mentor chat with Megiddo in MM7 was full of this kind of anxiety, because that's where I did all my note-taking and thinking, and I really didn't start cross-posting my thought processes into the actual game thread until after I got forced into that claim. I'm pretty sure the link is in the postgame if you want to read it.
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Void's case relies too much on Teia saying she was "mistaken" about Iso; people are allowed to change their reads, and I didn't think any of the insinuations that she thought he was still scum after saying that held water. There is also his weird attempt to suggest that Iso saying Wheat could be a roleblocker somehow means that Iso is scum, which seems to be based on setup speculation that roleblockers are scum more often than town.
Vote Void!
I could see KK and Void as scum based on their interactions today, where KK is like "oh yeah that's why Teia is scum" but fails to vote her, and he also defend's Void's case against kaburi without commenting on the case again. In both cases, he hints at trying to start a wagon on BV, who some (including me) listed as a scummy candidate on Day 1. It's almost like KK sees that Void's case is bad and is trying to get him to switch tacks before he wrecks himself. I can't say any of this absolves kaburi though, his post about Void was definitely weird.
I checked back on Arcadic, he only had 8 posts and they were pretty focused on hans, and also that he is sure that Jay is town. He wouldn't have any reason to lie about that as town himself, and he refused to answer when I asked why he specifically thought Jay was vanilla, but it seems like +town points for him.
Where on earth did you get that I don't find Teia scummy?
Teia's word choice is there. "I was mistaken". There is no doubt in those words. Teia KNEW she was mistaken. That is what my case is built up on. You are trying to take what Teia said and throw doubt onto it. Why are you doing this?
KK didn't vote Teia becuase KK is not sure if BV is the better lynch or not. You twisted this one so hard that MY brain was hurting after reading that.
It's okay for you not to comment on the case, but if KK doesn't you brand him scum for it? Yeah, you're Scum this game.
Unvote
Vote: Gerrad's Mom
What kind of reverse pyschology are using? Seiously, you're reading way too much into what KK posted there. It's so much of a stretch that I can't phathom how you came to that conclusion.
Since Arcadic flipped Town we know one thing for fact: That Arcadic didn't know the alignments of anyone else. You giving Jay +Town points for Arcadic believing him to be Town makes no sense.
We can deal with Teia later. I am certain that GM is scum this game.
The massive fence-sit on kaburi is classic scum GM as well -> kaburi is ~not absolved of any of this~ because his post was weird, not that you even say what he could have been absolved of, just that you're still allowed to look at him negatively.
Vote Gerrard's Mom
Aside: I'm loling at the correlation between the scummy players and their inability to see Jay is obvtown right now. Are all the scum scared that the other options are going to be too townie to mislynch so they have to keep jay as an option because he's new? Possible, though unlikely that they all fell into this trap.
Allow me to clarify. I feel like something's off with Void, but I can't tell if it's simply because of his posting style. Void is a very experienced mafia player, and his posting style is very verbose and academic. I can't tell if he's town!Void laying out a case he legitimately believes, or if he's scum!Void trying to dress up a flimsy case in pretty language and certainties in an effort to take advantage of the fact that modfias pull from a significantly less experienced pool of players to steer the townies into mislynching.
Having seen how he and I are reading Teia's words completely differently, I wanted to make it perfectly clear that I was stating my thought processes, not making a formal accusation against him. I don't have a read on him right now, because I don't have enough confidence in my ability to read people to know which of the two possibilities I described above is actually going on here.
@_kaburi_ on Twitter
Special thanks to Serrot_29 for Catbug'mrakul!