I'm working on a comprehensive response to AE but I don't have time to finish it at the moment. But in a nutshell, I think AE's first set of responses are atrocious and do absolutely nothing to change my opinion. His second set, though, is far more reasonable. While he doesn't dispute the facts I posted, he does provide reasonable alternatives to a scum motivation. On the other hand, they were the weaker set of points against him to begin with. It's enough, though, that I'm willing to lynch B_E and then reevaluate AE.
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Alright, so Antny has one last point/set of points to bring up, Kraj and DCIII have shown willingness to close the Day, Rhand, Nny, Archmage Eternal, and Burning Earth unknown on position of closing and still no word from TMCT (though I know he has been doing Mod business.)
Mod: What time tomorrow does the day close? Timezone and whether daylight savings is used would be appreciated.
Steak was nice but I probably had a beer too many. Anyhow the things most on my mind right now:
Nny's stance on BE doesn't seem to make sense, especially since he was voting for him earlier in the day. In fact in addition to everything else he's dodged he never answered my question on his opinions of BE.
AE still hasn't answered my question on TMCT either! Sigh. I'm also a little confused as why he's now changed his views on Kraj in his last post when he has been so adamant that Kraj is taking him out of context til now.
The one thing that bugs me about Kraj's 631 is that in 540 he does say that DCIII's vote was influential in his decision to jump on Void's wagon when he did. The timing may be close but the order is important here as I'm of the impression that if DCIII had stayed on BE's wagon, Kraj stays on MirrorEntity.
There's a few more hours to the deadline than I thought. So if the Day is still going on tomorrow morning I'll respond to anything else that catches my eye.
AE still hasn't answered my question on TMCT either! Sigh. I'm also a little confused as why he's now changed his views on Kraj in his last post when he has been so adamant that Kraj is taking him out of context til now.
Can you ask it again?
I'm sold on BE being scum. I'm getting a stronger read on Nny now. I have to take a step back and read Krajs' posts taking my personal thoughts out because he does look to be genuine in his thought process. That's what has me taking a step back. Taking myself out of the equation, do I get a scummy mind set behind his posts? I will do that over the night.
The one thing that bugs me about Kraj's 631 is that in 540 he does say that DCIII's vote was influential in his decision to jump on Void's wagon when he did. The timing may be close but the order is important here as I'm of the impression that if DCIII had stayed on BE's wagon, Kraj stays on MirrorEntity.
Certainly the order is important, but enough to come to two completely opposite conclusions given the rest of the facts? And yes, I likely would have stayed on M_E if someone hadn't placed a 3rd vote on Void and showed that a wagon was viable. As I've said before.
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I'm fine with either Rhand or Mirror as todays lynch.
This is Day 1, post 117, not 48 hours after the game has begun. Some players, like myself, have only posted a couple times. The most votes anyone has on them is 2. It's so absurd to be fine with either of two players being lynched at this point in the game that he can't possibly actually believe it. Moving on:
I've caught scum early early on D1. I've just recently been zeroed out as scum by Cyan in the first page of a game. Same with Proph in Apocalypse. So sorry, I do disagree with your thought in this.
And if you were Cyan, or Seppel, I probably wouldn't blink an eye. But nothing else about your play in this game suggests you are a pure-gut player.
Here he attacks B_E for saying the exact same thing he said earlier.
Well lets take a look and see what the big difference is here. BE condemns ME in his post. I push for ME to straighten out. Be productive and help out. To me these posts are complete opposites.
This is nothing more than splitting hairs. You both suggested he shouldn't be resigned to being lynched. You both suggested he might not be lynched. You both said he wouldn't behave this way if he was town. Spinning one was condemnation and the other as just trying to be helpful is nonsense. Besides, why would you feel the need to push ME to straighten out when the last thing you said about him was that you are fine with his lynch?
Continuing to push M_E even after the self-vote is exactly what he did. He only switched to Void after it was clear M_E was not getting lynched.
358 - AE checks in, says he'll post more later.
OK
360 - Pushes ME as the right lynch "even if theres a hint of Void being scum".
Thats where my vote was at the time. I was waiting to hear from Void.
365 - Void self-votes.
374 - AE pushes M_E for being afraid to put Void to L-1.
Still don't like that post. Comes across way to self conscience. Just state that you will be voting Void when the time comes to end the day.
376 & 377 - Now he's suddenly willing to vote Void
Had to look back on a game. Thanks for keeping up on that.
382 - And now he actually votes Void.
Yes. Right after his response. Saw what I was talking about and gave us a town ME.
430 - Tells TMCT to just hammer Void and get the day over with.
Whoa. Yes, 3 days later!!! With the game stalling and Thanksgiving coming right up. A time frame in which you refrained from posting and helping the day move forward. You talk about looking at the timing but that is exactly what your ignoring.
This is complete bullsh*t. Both wagons where at 5. Some were still wavering on who to lynch. I switched to Void when he made it clear he was scum and ME was town.
First of all, all I did with that list of posts was to provide facts. You are the one adding implications to each individual one, not me.
Your claim is that you did not behave exactly as you said you would as scum because, as scum, you would have continued to push M_E to the bitter end, regardless of how obviously scum Void was or how inevitable his lynch looked. And what you actually did was continue to push M_E even after he had made it abundantly clear he was scum, but did not continue to the bitter end.
This is accurate. But I do not buy that, as scum, you would never ever switch over to an obviously doomed buddy in favor of a highly vulnerable townie. Nor do I buy that you still had doubts about Void after he self-voted, but after this post:
Hold on. @ Void. What game was it that we were scum and you basically came out and claimed scum just to have the town lynch the townie over you? I believe it was you, I'm trying to find it. Help me out, was it you?
I believe that was Azrael in Boardgame Mafia, not me.
ME is Town. Nothing more to it.
Where he does not confirm your meta evidence and declares M_E town that you suddenly realized he's scum.
Nor do I buy that a player of your experience would clear a player based on a caught scum calling him town.
In my eyes Void just declared himself scum and ME town. Yes, for myself Void was the lynch, not ME. I'll leave you with one post that sums it up. Antnys #433
"
Well that seems to be five votes on Void and five on ME so I'm just gonna leave my vote alone for tonight unless anyone else is shifting their vote."
Yes, Antny sitting squarely on the fence and TMCT's stated preference for M_E are the two posts that suggest there was the slightest chance M_E might still be lynched after Void self-voted. I'll give you that.
After Rhand starts the Void wagon, AE unvotes him says he's undecided between B_E and TMCT, apparently now his two top targets, but here he attacks NNY for forgetting about TMCT today. Also interesting is at the point in the game where he names these two (forgetting about M_E and ignoring Void), the only things he said about either of them is that TMCT was his early town read, the fast wagon votes on B_E early on were terrible, and Rhand's attacks on B_E were bad enough to attack Rhand.
I don't understand what your getting at here. Saying I'm attacking Nny here is a bit harsh. I'm asking him about TMCT since I haven't kept up on him.
I'm withdrawing this point. Rereading now, I see I misinterpreted your post to mean you're are undecided between B_E and TMCT when you were saying you don't have a read on them yet.
Kraj is reaching and taking things out of context in order to make it look like he has something of a case on me. I can't see him being town the way he's presenting this case.
As I've pointed out before, here you're just trying to discredit my case in the exact same fashion Void did to Rhand.
In post 93, he agrees with Void's discrediting of DCIII's townslip.
Haven't played with DCIII. I typically have a suspicious mindset when I don't know who is who.
Um....wouldn't you always have a suspicious mindset about every player on page 1? This point would be a non-issue if DCIII wasn't pretty obviously town and Void confirmed scum, but they are and therefore this is a minor point against you, regardless of your explanation.
In post 312, when prompted for an opinion on Void, AE just says "the meta case?" and dismisses it. He hasn't bothered to read the follow up Rhand posted which he asked for. Maybe he just didn't see it, but at best he isn't trying very hard to actually form an opinion on Void. He then goes on to push the 'information lynch' angle on M_E.
No I missed it which is why I asked Rhand to back it up. I was MIA from the game after that for a few days. My objective at that point was to read the case and see Voids reply. At that point Void self destructs.
Yup, pretty much the explanation I already said I expected. It's just a matter of which explanation rings more true.
Today, in post 510 he is "fine" with a B_E lynch...based on what? He comes out the gate with a case on me, and he's never posted any kind of reason for suspecting B_E at all, but he'd be fine with the lynch? The most he can come up with is that DKingsland thought B_E and Void are scumbuddies and now DKingsland is dead.
His overall behavior. I can't believe it's coming from a townie. There's nothing helpful in his posts.
I agree. But you didn't say that. I can't fault you, though, for not forming a more thorough opinion on B_E. I can't bring myself to reread him either when so many of his posts make my eyes bleed.
In post 471, he calls NNY town, then in 520 calls him scum. NNY's offense? Saying he's read me as town since day 1. Officially reverses his town read stance on NNY in 575, right after NNY votes him, in classic OMGUS fashion.
I'll admit that's a major flaw of mine. When I don't know who's town and someone is attacking me for, in my eyes faulty reasons when I'm town I feel they are trying for a mislynch on purpose.
OK, but admitting a flaw doesn't change the scummy behavior. And you know what? A big flaw of mine is I have a hard time seeing players as scum when they agree with me. So I try to recognize when that's influencing my reads and fix it. I don't just go with it and admit later why I screwed up.
Post #59 when TMCT wanted a yes or no to the town slip Nny posts "The mod's post says that all town roles are Walkers." He also doesn't see it as town slip. He looks to be pushing away from people seeing DCIII and TMCT as town.
Will try to get back on later to answer any questions toward me. But I'll put down my t/s list so we can keep moving.
Town
Rhand. No way he goes after Void when he did if he is his bud.
DCIII. Actively trying to figure things out and his post are not coming across fraudulent. My calling him misguided earlier points to this.
Leaning town.
Antny and Shock I've only skimmed but have not been overly concerned with their efforts in scum hunting.
Null.
I have not paid attention to or reread TMCT this game. I can't recall much of anything from him. That might be more of an issue on my part than it is on his.
Leaning scum.
Nny. Had a town read on him D1. His attitude today is sending up flags. If Kraj turns up scum then I believe I'll move Nny up the ladder toward town.
Scum.
BE/Kraj
Not only is there nothing here he hasn't said before, there's nothing here that everyone else isn't saying other than maybe his opinion on me and NNy. His town reads are everyone else's town reads. His scum reads are the two players he's voted today, plus everyone else's favorite scum read. And not the tiniest scrap of an opinion on the remaining three players. Not one little detail that shows he's bothering to try and form his own opinions on anyone other than me or NNy.
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@AE In addition to what Kraj says I have to wonder what it was you were looking at with regards to TMCT on Day 1. I remember you saying about the reread but what in particular were you looking for and what made you want to read him in the first place?
Certainly the order is important, but enough to come to two completely opposite conclusions given the rest of the facts? And yes, I likely would have stayed on M_E if someone hadn't placed a 3rd vote on Void and showed that a wagon was viable. As I've said before.
The second part was really my point, DCIII's vote is integral to the wagon forming, yours helped but wasn't as important - which is what I think Rhand was trying to say in his T/S list.
Your vote may not be a bus vote but it is more likely to be a bus vote than DCIII's given the information.
Again, we need to go fast
As it is clear TMCT is not today's lynch, unvote,vote Archmage Eternal
I feel obliged to point out that you're gonna be lynched toDay and that's gonna happen today. If you have anything more useful than a counterwagon you should post it now.
I'm curious though: why did you only bring this up now? This was definately not the first time I called DCIII town and you possible scum for the development of the Void wagon.
The primary reason is because it's not the first time. I don't feel the need to stamp out every bit of suspicion expressed about me, especially when there are fair points to be made, and especially when I think it'd be picking a fight with another town. But since you've repeated the idea multiple times and made it clear it's an important element to your read on me, I felt it needed to be addressed. Plus it was starting to piss me off.
This post at least feels genuine.
I've reread the Void wagon forming part of the game.
Explain me please: what happened between you voicing that you would support a Void wagon and you actually voting that convinced you to change your vote?
The second part was really my point, DCIII's vote is integral to the wagon forming, yours helped but wasn't as important - which is what I think Rhand was trying to say in his T/S list.
Your vote may not be a bus vote but it is more likely to be a bus vote than DCIII's given the information.
I'm curious as to your reasoning for this conclusion. Guess how many people voted for Void between my vote and his self-vote. (Hint: it's zero.)
Again, we need to go fast
As it is clear TMCT is not today's lynch, unvote,vote Archmage Eternal
I feel obliged to point out that you're gonna be lynched toDay and that's gonna happen today. If you have anything more useful than a counterwagon you should post it now.
Yup. I expect to check back before tonight's deadline but I can't guarantee.
I'm curious though: why did you only bring this up now? This was definately not the first time I called DCIII town and you possible scum for the development of the Void wagon.
The primary reason is because it's not the first time. I don't feel the need to stamp out every bit of suspicion expressed about me, especially when there are fair points to be made, and especially when I think it'd be picking a fight with another town. But since you've repeated the idea multiple times and made it clear it's an important element to your read on me, I felt it needed to be addressed. Plus it was starting to piss me off.
Explain me please: what happened between you voicing that you would support a Void wagon and you actually voting that convinced you to change your vote?
I'm not sure how to explain this again any differently.
I had a gut-suspicion of Void but very little evidence to support it.
I was more than happy to lynch M_E, but I did not agree with the wagon on B_E. I did not want to move my vote off of M_E to a wagon that might not go anywhere. With 7 to lynch and the deadline being a factor, and with B_E and M_E as the only two players brought to claim range thus far, 2 or 3 votes might be ignored. With 4 votes, only one more person has to agree to be claim range. That's harder to ignore.
And I'll point you to my earlier statement to Antny: nobody else voted Void before he self-voted. After DCIII, I was the rest of the wagon.
I'll also remind you that it wasn't until Void's response to your case, particularly how he tried to paint you as scummy over it, that convinced me he was scum.
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@AE In addition to what Kraj says I have to wonder what it was you were looking at with regards to TMCT on Day 1. I remember you saying about the reread but what in particular were you looking for and what made you want to read him in the first place?
This...But at the time the ME and BE wagons where taking off and I never looked back on TMCT.
If i keep going at TMCT, it will turn into a typical Rhand-slapfest and I learned that that doesn't help town. I am happy to let AE take over and he seems to have picked up on what I saw.
BE has answered my main issue while Antny's mindset needs to be explored more.
I would be surprised if his view on voting stems from a town mindset.
My vote has most power where my questioning is. When the day progresses towards a lynch, that changes, but we're not in that situation yet.
The second part was really my point, DCIII's vote is integral to the wagon forming, yours helped but wasn't as important - which is what I think Rhand was trying to say in his T/S list.
Your vote may not be a bus vote but it is more likely to be a bus vote than DCIII's given the information.
I'm curious as to your reasoning for this conclusion. Guess how many people voted for Void between my vote and his self-vote. (Hint: it's zero.)
I don't know if I can explain it better (at least not tonight, it's been a long day). DCIII voted when there was just two people on the wagon and you waited to see if there anyone else was going to vote Void before shifting. Since there's no way for you to have known at the time whether anyone else would have joined the wagon I'm not sure how I can factor you second sentence into the equation.
Comparing just those two votes DCIII's will always be more important for reasons we both agree on.
I might not agree with Rhand about your vote being the likeliest bus vote but I can see where he was coming from and I disagreed with your post 631 about your actions and DCIII's being similar enough to merit equal treatment.
DCIII's post before the self vote (287,315, 322) are all trying to get that fifth player on the wagon. I just don't believe a scum player would be trying to build a wagon on a scumbuddy at that time. Your initial posts around that time (301, 307, 311) are a little more on the fence and that you waited til after Void responded to push the wagon (349).
So DCIII's vote is very unlikely to a bus vote in my mind.
Your vote - it could easily be a town vote, but still as scum if you thought Rhand's case was strong I could see the possibility of a bus, particularly if you feared others were about to jump on after DCIII. Post 349 suggests it was probably not a bus. I could be wrong. I don't know. I'm s little rushed right now so if I'm around toMorrow I'll explain it better if this is making no sense.
@AE Thanks for answering. I'd go back and check what it was Rhand's talking about but Only Connect is calling. Gonna have to leave this for toDay.
The rules state that if the deadline is reached it's a no lynch as opposed to the player with the most votes, so we'll need a hammer prior to midnight.
This one is the one that stood out to me the most. Firstly, it's common and helpful for players to affirm their reads on other players. AE did this by affirming that he agreed that Rhand and Nny were town. This lets us know AE's reads on those players.
Nny's comment asking what's the point of that stands out to me because the point is that we know where AE's head is on other players. Also, calling it "/barning the obvious" makes the assumption that everyone should think that those two players are town. While there's a solid argument to make for that based on voting pattern, it's not a given. He's basically calling it obvious that he should be cleared here and that affirming that is pointless because it should be so clear to everyone else. I don't like that. It seems to me like he's trying to get others to take for granted that he's town.
It was slightly tongue-in-cheek, actually, as well as a jab at AE. I suppose you couldn't tell that from my rather glib monotone all game, though.
Slowed on giving his read of Void despite all of the chatter around it - waited to join the wagon until momentum had clearly shifted to him. Also slowed on posting around this point of the game - I think he was waiting to see if momentum was going to shift to Void and if he needed to bus.
If I wanted town cred I would have jumped on early when the first few votes happened. Like I said earlier, if I was Voids bud I would have pushed hard for ME as that would have been an easy lynch.
Again, is this not what you did? I actually agree with this point against you.
The use of the word "actually" stands out to me. I've seen this several times by scum now where they want to push a point against a player but they say "actually" like they're surprised that they agree with where the point came from. This is an attempt to add extra weight to the point itself while still keeping the player who made it as a questionable source. Considering that player was me, someone who Nny hasn't made any real push against, it's an odd time to use "actually" to affirm that he agrees with the point.
I largely disagreed with the points against AE that were presented prior to me making that post. Stating that I "actually" agree with that specific point is, in fact, me making that clear. Why do I necessarily have to agree with your arguments if I believe you might be town?
Quote from DCIII »
In general, there's a terseness to his posts, "can't be bothered to break down Antny's post but everyone should see how bad it is" and citing laziness while repeatedly calling AE to task for not taking the time to do certain reads or analysis. Some hypocrisy there and it's starting to feel like an attempt to appear town by being more brazen and obviously not caring about ruffling feathers.
I work 50+ hours a week; I bit off more than I can chew by joining 2 games at once, so I'm doing my best to keep up with the game when I have down time and not be a burden on everyone else by making useless posts or replacing out. I'd apologize for having a life outside of Mafia, but doing so would be absolutely ridiculous. At any rate, my activity/amount of content/effort I am willing to expend is an indicator of what's going on in my life, not what's going on in the game.
Quote from DCIII »
Those concerns festering, Antny's point about Nny not actually driving the case against Void, telling Rhand there was no need to case him, and that that case may not ever have developed on Void without Rhand driving it struck a cord to me. It reminds me of fulcrum and Void in WWII. Scum fulcrum made a case on scum Void early in the game with the intent of Void refuting it and then dropping the case. In that game it wasn't her (fulcrum's) case that got Void caught, though, it was another player (me in that situation) who picked up on Void's reaction to her case and drove it forward. As a result, she had to stay on the wagon that she poked at early and Void was lynched.
Frankly, that was just me displaying confidence in my read on Void. I had no contention as to whether or not Rhand actually followed through with the case, as I felt what I dredged up against Void was sufficient grounds to lynch him on.
AE and B_E's T/S lists are awful and I will happily see either one of them swing.
@Nny One more thing. Do you think we should lynch BE today? (Give reasons rather than just yes or no)
Fine with me. I think there's a pretty clear dichotomy between B_E and AE at this point. I also poked my head in a couple pages ago before going back to the point I left off at and noticed one of your posts which reminded me that B_E was actually getting run up around the time mirrorentity was, so bump him down to leaning scum on my list for that reason. I've been so uninvested in this game due to being busy that I forgot a few things from Day 1, such as that. So...thanks, I guess?
Nny's stance on BE doesn't seem to make sense, especially since he was voting for him earlier in the day. In fact in addition to everything else he's dodged he never answered my question on his opinions of BE.
This was the post.
Also, this is mudslinging (as well as a blatant lie), as I had not posted after you asked me about B_E.
If B_E happens to flip town, I'd like to go after AE next. Antny is still probably scum, but I'm putting him on the backburner, as AE is oozing scum right now.
I don't know if I can explain it better (at least not tonight, it's been a long day). DCIII voted when there was just two people on the wagon and you waited to see if there anyone else was going to vote Void before shifting. Since there's no way for you to have known at the time whether anyone else would have joined the wagon I'm not sure how I can factor you second sentence into the equation.
Comparing just those two votes DCIII's will always be more important for reasons we both agree on.
I might not agree with Rhand about your vote being the likeliest bus vote but I can see where he was coming from and I disagreed with your post 631 about your actions and DCIII's being similar enough to merit equal treatment.
DCIII's post before the self vote (287,315, 322) are all trying to get that fifth player on the wagon. I just don't believe a scum player would be trying to build a wagon on a scumbuddy at that time. Your initial posts around that time (301, 307, 311) are a little more on the fence and that you waited til after Void responded to push the wagon (349).
So DCIII's vote is very unlikely to a bus vote in my mind.
Your vote - it could easily be a town vote, but still as scum if you thought Rhand's case was strong I could see the possibility of a bus, particularly if you feared others were about to jump on after DCIII. Post 349 suggests it was probably not a bus. I could be wrong. I don't know. I'm s little rushed right now so if I'm around toMorrow I'll explain it better if this is making no sense.
OK. That's fair. Obviously I don't see things the same way but I can't say you're way off base. Except the part about my post 631. I never said mine and DCIII's actions deserved equal treatment, I said they were similar enough that drawing completely opposite conclusions from them doesn't make sense.
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Not Voting (2): Archmage Eternal, The Most Curious Thing
Rick jerked awake with a start. He cursed himself for succumbing to exhaustion and checked each radio channel for the hundredth time. The late afternoon sun shone directly into the department store, illuminating a stray walker among the mannequins. Glenn had used an abandoned convertible's car alarm to draw most of the walkers away from the department store, but it was impossible to tell how many of the dead remained inside. It was also impossible to tell how many of the living remained. Rick tried not to think about that as he waited for Glenn to return. The waiting was the hardest part.
As the sun began to set, Glenn hurried toward the store on foot. He had left the convertible at the edge of town so as to make a more discreet return. Still covered in guts, he had almost managed to sneak his way back when it began to rain. As the smell of death started to wash away from him, walkers seemed to notice. One in particular walked right up to Glenn and growled. Suddenly, an axe buried itself into the walker's head. Rick yelled at Glenn to get into the store, and the younger man was all too happy to oblige. Rick spared a second to admire his handiwork before following suit.
Burning_Earth has been lynched.
He was Walker (Town Vanilla).
Night Two will end no later than 11:59PM EST Thursday, December 19th.
Please send in Night actions as soon as possible and inform me if you have an optional Night action you do not wish to take.
As Night fell, a mad rush piled into the department store from the street and alleyway. Most of the walkers lost the scent of the living and began wandering aimlessly through the first floor. Meanwhile, Rick and Glenn crept around undetected. The sound of the convertible pierced the silent Night and just as quickly faded away. And then another gunshot, this one muffled by the stairwell, echoed through the building. By the time the walkers gravitated toward the sound, Rick was long gone.
Kraj has been killed.
Kraj was Walker (Town Two-Shot Tracker).
It is now Day Three.
With 7 alive, it's 4 votes to lynch.
Day Three will end no later than 11:59PM EST Sunday, January 12th.
Meh. I kept my 'scumread' on Kraj up hoping he wouldn't get nk'ed.
I hope TMCT catches up soon now. It's between him, AE and Nny now.
We have room for a mislynch, so unless I am wrong about my town reads, i think we have this in the bag.
Rhand - Finding and escalating Void when the ME and BE wagons were viable is enough to place him here for me, also he has been scum hunting all game and driving his reads forward.
Antny - Interactions with Void. Have covered that I don't think Void would act as he did around Antny with me in this game, also as his first game, I don't think it likely that Antny would feel comfortable interacting with Void so openly as he did if he was on the same team. I also liked his effort Day 2 a lot better than his Day 1 play.
Shockwave - This Shock feels very similar to the Shock I just played with in Futurama and also isn't much different than the other town Shocks I've read. His reads seem genuine. Also, I picked up on something in thread that makes me think he's Town.
So that leaves Nny, TMCT, and AE as my suspects at this point.
I don't think it at all likely that AE and Nny are scum together based on their interactions Yesterday. Not that scum couldn't interact like that, but AE started pushing Nny when really only Antny had issues with him and the rest of the group still mostly viewed him as Town based on his Void push. If they were teammates, that would also mean that Nny would have decided to bus the hell out of both of his teammates when it wasn't a necessary play - possible but I find that unlikely.
So, based on PoE via my other reads alone:
Vote: The Most Curious Thing
As for non PoE reasoning - This post below very much stood out after reading over the Night:
This reeks of a counterwagon; votes are shifting over way too quickly. I haven't liked Burning_Earth's posting but it's statistically improbable that both him and ME are scum. Hm...
Do you think a double-bus is possible here? Mirror's post where he voted B_E had virtually no content or reasoning behind it, and B_E's vote of mirror was just a /barn of Kraj and had a bit of an OMGUS smell.
I do agree that the wagon picked up momentum extremely fast, but seriously, there is good casing against B_E and he has done no scumhunting at all. I am perfectly willing to lynch him in the face of the possibility of a counterwagon. If he flips scum, awesome! ToMorrow, we get to work on figuring out who was bussing. If he flips town, we still eliminated a player we thought was scummy, mirror is pretty much confirmed scum, and we can examine the votes and try to figure out who were the opportunistic scum on the B_E wagon.
Thoughts?
Sure, a double-bus is possible, but pre-flip buddy analysis is generally the most pointless thing in the world and has a poor track record. That being said both of them have done scummy things independent of each other (mirror moreso), so I'd be fine with a B_E lynch. As you said, we get information even from a town B_E flip.
That being said, we get information from a town ME flip, too, and in my eyes he's more likely to flip scum. I want to lynch ME.
Here, he leaves open suspicion on both Town-flipped players while also appearing to be helpful by giving general guidance around pre-flip analysis.
If your going to be so focused on me you should at least read my posts. I said clearly I was just going to vote BE as soon as Nny ceased being V/LA so it shouldn't be a surprise to you. Did any those posts say I was waiting because I wanted Nny to state a case against BE? No, they didn't, but I guess any chance to throw a loaded question that me is too good to miss, right
A "loaded question"? That's a load of mud you're flinging at Rhand. Even if you did exactly what you stated, exactly what you stated makes no sense. The point of waiting for Nny is to let him actually catch up, not pop in and say "hi, I'll provide content soon."
Here he unnecessarily defends Rhand, really the only player pressuring him at this juncture of the game.
@Antny:
No need for apologies on your side. As I said, I haven't been reading your posts in full. It should be me apologizing to you.
I am going to reread Void. This is typical scum!Void.
The politeness, you mean? I've given up on meta-reading Void since I'm abyssmal at it. I seem to remember that tell backfiring on me, too, but I can't remember what game it was.
Here he brushes off Rhand's meta read on Void and warns Rhand against reading him this way. This in the same post where he keeps open suspicion on both ME and BE, he brushes off the Void push
I will place my vote on mirrorentity if he is the chosen lynch for the Day, as he is one of my scum reads.
Don't like this attitude at all. You're just acquiescing to the will of the town with little independent thought apart from the reasoning that already gave you a scum read on ME. I'm going to come back to this after ME flips.
Yesterday was quiet from TMCT but when he was posting, he didn't follow through on this.
I'm in the unfortunate position of having been dreadful since the middle of D1 and now being fairly certain that I'm going to have trouble fighting my lynch. For that, I'm sorry.
We're at a point in the game now where I don't want to be alive for LyLo -- if we lynch a townie other than me Today, I rate our chances at winning very low. This is not a request to be lynched Today: at the very least, I want to reevaluate the game in light of one of my scumspects and another of my not-town reads both flipping town. With only two scum left in six players, I'd much prefer to lynch a player I feel very strongly about (Shockwave?)
But failing obvious scum, yes, I may be the best lynch Today.
I'm in the unfortunate position of having been dreadful since the middle of D1 and now being fairly certain that I'm going to have trouble fighting my lynch. For that, I'm sorry.
We're at a point in the game now where I don't want to be alive for LyLo -- if we lynch a townie other than me Today, I rate our chances at winning very low. This is not a request to be lynched Today: at the very least, I want to reevaluate the game in light of one of my scumspects and another of my not-town reads both flipping town. With only two scum left in six players, I'd much prefer to lynch a player I feel very strongly about (Shockwave?)
But failing obvious scum, yes, I may be the best lynch Today.
I will place my vote on mirrorentity if he is the chosen lynch for the Day, as he is one of my scum reads.
Don't like this attitude at all. You're just acquiescing to the will of the town with little independent thought apart from the reasoning that already gave you a scum read on ME. I'm going to come back to this after ME flips.
Yesterday was quiet from TMCT but when he was posting, he didn't follow through on this.
TMCT, care to follow through? You haven't come back to it but now want Shock run up?
I've decided that I think this is the remaining scum team.
I'd agree but I had such a high town read on TMCT early D1. His departure from Nny to Shock does raise flags. At this point consider my vote on Nny. Holding my vote until everyone checks in.
I think Void knew what he was doing when he started drawing attention to himself with the self vote. While the self hammer is mostly WIFOM based on scum chat I've read it is one of the Seppel's rules to scum games.
And I think he wanted to create some mislynches while also giving us some targets to draw false scum connections from. The self hammer sealed what connections he wanted to leave.
It is just speculation, but it is what I am wondering.
This seems too certain, no comment on BE, no comment on Kraj and I don't think he's been taken aback by either flip.
Nny being one of the remaining scum looks very likely right now. TMCT being his scumbuddy makes the most sense looking over the remaining players.
My commentary on B_E came yesterDay, which led to my current AE vote. I read Kraj as town from Day 1. Why should I be taken aback? On what grounds should I be lamenting the death of our Tracker/a Vanilla? Or the fact that I was wrong about B_E? Please explain the town motivation for doing such.
I'm in the unfortunate position of having been dreadful since the middle of D1 and now being fairly certain that I'm going to have trouble fighting my lynch. For that, I'm sorry.
We're at a point in the game now where I don't want to be alive for LyLo -- if we lynch a townie other than me Today, I rate our chances at winning very low. This is not a request to be lynched Today: at the very least, I want to reevaluate the game in light of one of my scumspects and another of my not-town reads both flipping town. With only two scum left in six players, I'd much prefer to lynch a player I feel very strongly about (Shockwave?)
But failing obvious scum, yes, I may be the best lynch Today.
I didn't. The two aren't mutually exclusive. You could pressure bothwhile still voting AE. You and TMCT have been applying token pressure/suspicion on each other all game but not following through to drive much of that read forward. There are two scum remaining and the simple vote of AE to start the Day right after TMCT's post did nothing to convince me that you intended to hunt or pressure him.
My commentary on B_E came yesterDay, which led to my current AE vote. I read Kraj as town from Day 1. Why should I be taken aback? On what grounds should I be lamenting the death of our Tracker/a Vanilla? Or the fact that I was wrong about B_E? Please explain the town motivation for doing such.
Because BE flipping town and Kraj being NK has changed the gamestate and I expected at least some acknowledgement of that. Slamming down a vote and saying nothing leaves the impression that your sole interest is lynching AE toDay and you think there's nothing else worth discussing.
What are your thoughts on TMCT's last post and how do you feel on lynching TMCT toDay?
And what exactly made you think AE was more likely to be scum than me at the end of yesterday?
As a point of clarification, I have no interest in any lynch other than TMCT Today because, if my reads are correct (Rhand, Antny, and Shockwave are town, Nny and AE aren't scum together) then he HAS to be scum.
If he somehow isn't, then I'll need to re-evaluate everything as one or more of those other reads won't be able to be correct.
TMCT is my most confident read and that's where my vote will stay Today.
I didn't. The two aren't mutually exclusive. You could pressure bothwhile still voting AE. You and TMCT have been applying token pressure/suspicion on each other all game but not following through to drive much of that read forward. There are two scum remaining and the simple vote of AE to start the Day right after TMCT's post did nothing to convince me that you intended to hunt or pressure him.
It should be pretty apparent, then, to anybody reading my posts that I think that Antny and AE are the two most likely players at present to be scum. Why are you ignoring that?
My commentary on B_E came yesterDay, which led to my current AE vote. I read Kraj as town from Day 1. Why should I be taken aback? On what grounds should I be lamenting the death of our Tracker/a Vanilla? Or the fact that I was wrong about B_E? Please explain the town motivation for doing such.
Because BE flipping town and Kraj being NK has changed the gamestate and I expected at least some acknowledgement of that. Slamming down a vote and saying nothing leaves the impression that your sole interest is lynching AE toDay and you think there's nothing else worth discussing.
You must be joking. My acknowledgment of the changed gamestate was to vote for AE as a result of B_E flipping town - I did state on Day 2 that I believed there was a dichotomy between the two of them. Try to keep up with the rest of us, will you?
Quote from Antny223 »
What are your thoughts on TMCT's last post and how do you feel on lynching TMCT toDay?
I think it's a null-to-slightly-town post. While it's unlikely that scum would offer themselves up as a lynch to clear up some reads at this stage in the game when we're clearly ahead with one dead scum, it could easily be WIFOM if TMCT is confident that he's not going to be lynched. However, I would expect him to put something more analogous to effort into getting somebody else lynched by now were he scum in this scenario. Given that's obviously not the case, I currently feel more comfortable lynching you or AE for the Day, though I would prefer AE because of the dichotomy I perceived between him and B_E on Day 2.
Quote from Antny223 »
And what exactly made you think AE was more likely to be scum than me at the end of yesterday?
The fact that I thought B_E and AE could not be of the same alignment paired with AE's Day 1 approach towards the Void/mirrorentity wagons.
If B_E happens to flip town, I'd like to go after AE next. Antny is still probably scum, but I'm putting him on the backburner, as AE is oozing scum right now.
I suddenly realised I should have questioned you on this sooner; why have you only bothered listing one possibility here? You've mentioned the clear dichotomy between BE and AE and above you say your certain their not the same alignment yet you yesterday you only consider what to do in a BE townflip, while making no mention of what happens if BE flips scum (you were reading him as leaning scum at the time).
Back your previous post you describe AE as oozing scum by the end of Day yet he was still a lighter scum read than me in your T/S list a few post earlier l so again I ask, what between then and the end of the day to made you want to move AE to the top of your scumreads?
It should be pretty apparent, then, to anybody reading my posts that I think that Antny and AE are the two most likely players at present to be scum. Why are you ignoring that?
So, then you're confident that AE and Antny are the scum team to the point that you don't need to investigate or pressure other players? I haven't seen a post to that effect, i.e. you feel like you've solved the game and it's those two and here's why. In fact, looking at your T/S list:
Disinterested in responding to AE when he's made it clear that his intent in this game is to sling mud at me and not address any of the actual points I've raised.
Disinterested in responding to Antny yet again for similar reasons.
Town
Rhand - Because Void.
DCIII - Posts seem to come from a town place of mind. While I don't buy the townslip, I have seen no reason to disbelieve anything he posts is genuine.
Kraj - Well-reasoned posts with no ulterior motives sensed in intent.
Null
Burning Earth - Subpar Day 1 behavior + hasn't posted anything particularly memorable.
Shockwave07 - Obviously new to Mafia, but hasn't posted anything particularly incriminating or insightful one way or the other that stands out in my memory.
Scummy
The Most Curious Thing - Good posts and bad posts. We'll figure this one out eventually.
Archmage Eternal - Read my post to him and his last two posts directed towards me.
Scum
Antny223 - Insufficient reasoning and responses, scummy attacks, misrepresentation, mudslinging, etc.
That looks like a list that hasn't nearly been solved yet. There are two null players, one of which is still in the game, there are two lean scum players, one of which is TMCT. Other than your most recent response to Antny, I haven't seen anything where you started feeling better about TMCT and why.
You had TMCT on your suspect list very early in the game, even listing him as a player you'd be willing to lynch - but you have offered little to no pressure on him over the entirety of the game. If you had that read on him, I'd think you'd have done more to present a solid case on him or to pressure him to get a better grasp on that read. If your read had changed over the game, I'd expect that to have been reflected in your T/S list - but you still have him as scummy. Your actions around TMCT vs your views on him don't add up.
Additionally, looking over that T/S list again, I see that you still mentioned not believing my town slip. At first, I brushed that off and thought, well, he didn't believe that but he's still reading the rest of what I'm doing as town... but let's think about that. I acknowledged with TMCT that it was, in fact, a town slip because I hadn't read the full OP. If you don't believe that, then that should be ringing HUGE alarm bells with you. What motivation would I have for lying about that other than attempting to appear Town and why, as Town, would I make up a lie to attempt to appear more Town? Shouldn't my play just speak for itself as Town?
It's inconsistent with an inquisitive mindset that you didn't press that harder on both me and TMCT.
It's time for everyone to listen to me on TMCT and Nny.
If B_E happens to flip town, I'd like to go after AE next. Antny is still probably scum, but I'm putting him on the backburner, as AE is oozing scum right now.
I suddenly realised I should have questioned you on this sooner; why have you only bothered listing one possibility here? You've mentioned the clear dichotomy between BE and AE and above you say your certain their not the same alignment yet you yesterday you only consider what to do in a BE townflip, while making no mention of what happens if BE flips scum (you were reading him as leaning scum at the time).
If B_E flipped scum, that would have indicated a town AE to me, which would have led to my pursuit of you on this Day. I'm quite certain you can't be this bad at reading comprehension; why are you being deliberately obtuse?
Quote from Antny223 »
Back your previous post you describe AE as oozing scum by the end of Day yet he was still a lighter scum read than me in your T/S list a few post earlier l so again I ask, what between then and the end of the day to made you want to move AE to the top of your scumreads?
I've had a strong scum read on you since Day 1. B_E's alignment was still up in the air at the time, so naturally I wanted to resolve the dichotomy between the two of them before we reached a critical junction in the game to where we would have lost had we made the wrong decision. That said, I'm absolutely convinced at this point that you and AE are the scumteam, but B_E flipping town makes AE close to 100% confirmed scum in my eyes due to their exchanges from Day 2.
It should be pretty apparent, then, to anybody reading my posts that I think that Antny and AE are the two most likely players at present to be scum. Why are you ignoring that?
So, then you're confident that AE and Antny are the scum team to the point that you don't need to investigate or pressure other players? I haven't seen a post to that effect, i.e. you feel like you've solved the game and it's those two and here's why.
Perhaps you should consider reading my posts, then? You know, as opposed to not reading them, which is clearly what you are doing in lieu of that.
Disinterested in responding to AE when he's made it clear that his intent in this game is to sling mud at me and not address any of the actual points I've raised.
Disinterested in responding to Antny yet again for similar reasons.
Town
Rhand - Because Void.
DCIII - Posts seem to come from a town place of mind. While I don't buy the townslip, I have seen no reason to disbelieve anything he posts is genuine.
Kraj - Well-reasoned posts with no ulterior motives sensed in intent.
Null
Burning Earth - Subpar Day 1 behavior + hasn't posted anything particularly memorable.
Shockwave07 - Obviously new to Mafia, but hasn't posted anything particularly incriminating or insightful one way or the other that stands out in my memory.
Scummy
The Most Curious Thing - Good posts and bad posts. We'll figure this one out eventually.
Archmage Eternal - Read my post to him and his last two posts directed towards me.
Scum
Antny223 - Insufficient reasoning and responses, scummy attacks, misrepresentation, mudslinging, etc.
That looks like a list that hasn't nearly been solved yet. There are two null players, one of which is still in the game, there are two lean scum players, one of which is TMCT.
Are you suggesting that:
I should prefer to lynch a null read over a scum read?
I should prefer to lynch a leaning scum read over a scum read?
Please explain your logic.
Quote from DCIII »
Other than your most recent response to Antny, I haven't seen anything where you started feeling better about TMCT and why.
I wasn't aware I needed to outline every single thought I have on the game in explicit detail for you to be able to follow along with my mental faculties. Why so needy? Additionally, where have I expressed feeling better about TMCT at all? There's a reason AE was below TMCT on my list - that being that I feel AE is more likely to be scum than TMCT. Finally, while I'm confident that I have the last two scum pegged, I don't see why I shouldn't say, "I don't feel completely comfortable about these other players; this is likely where I'd look next if I'm wrong about someone" when the goal of a T/S list is to lay out how you feel about every single other player in the game with reasoning. Do you disagree?
Quote from DCIII »
You had TMCT on your suspect list very early in the game, even listing him as a player you'd be willing to lynch - but you have offered little to no pressure on him over the entirety of the game. If you had that read on him, I'd think you'd have done more to present a solid case on him or to pressure him to get a better grasp on that read. If your read had changed over the game, I'd expect that to have been reflected in your T/S list - but you still have him as scummy. Your actions around TMCT vs your views on him don't add up.
I've been pressuring Antny all game, and I've been pressuring AE recently. If I'm certain that these two are the last scum, then why wouldn't I focus my efforts on getting them lynched over a player I'm less certain about? When my time is limited, why shouldn't I work harder at getting my two primary scum reads lynched over, say, anyone else?
Quote from DCIII »
Additionally, looking over that T/S list again, I see that you still mentioned not believing my town slip. At first, I brushed that off and thought, well, he didn't believe that but he's still reading the rest of what I'm doing as town... but let's think about that. I acknowledged with TMCT that it was, in fact, a town slip because I hadn't read the full OP. If you don't believe that, then that should be ringing HUGE alarm bells with you. What motivation would I have for lying about that other than attempting to appear Town and why, as Town, would I make up a lie to attempt to appear more Town? Shouldn't my play just speak for itself as Town?
Not necessarily. I've intentionally "townslipped" as town before, and it was to give myself more credence in my pushes when other players were more dubious of my alignment. I don't know how much you've played, but even when I was a newer player, I was always doing sneaky things in an attempt to better my position, whether I was actually town or not. You hadn't done anything at the time to lead me to believe that you were town or scum at the point, and I'm naturally inclined towards misanthropic cynicism, especially since we're playing Mafia, so there was absolutely no reason for me to believe you were townslipping. Your play has been fine so far, for the most part, so I may be able to accept it as a townslip now; but with the state of the game ever-changing, why should play that you had not performed yet be a determining factor in whether or not I believed something you did early in the game? Do you think I am psychic?
Quote from DCIII »
It's inconsistent with an inquisitive mindset that you didn't press that harder on both me and TMCT.
Disagreed. You were a player I felt more inclined to observe than question, as I've been burned many a time on false "townslips" (as I've said before). Given that you didn't attempt to bolster your stances with the alleged townslip afterwards, I felt better about your play and was fine with disregarding you as potential scum. As for TMCT, again, I've felt more inclined to observe him than exert pressure directly, given that my priorities have been elsewhere in this game and IRL. If you don't believe me, that's fine; you're welcome to attempt to run me up. But you won't be getting me lynched.
Plus just RVS. No reason to leave it until everyone has had a go!
This is not a townish mindset. a) Wants to stay in the scum-safe haven of RVS and b) doesn't immediately want non-RVS (read: real) posts to analyze from other players.
I can't say for sure how new Burning Earth is to Mafia, but I am aware of him in one off site game, on-going so can't use any content there. But not game related is his total post count on it. Currently it is rather low, like here. Implied at least one previous game in sign-ups.
Probably total in game posts on site.
Do you have any completed games? Talking games you've been in and have finished up.
Alright, now I do see what you are talking about, and good to note you are keeping track of activity levels. But not sure how that helps determine alignment.
Also that wasn't what I was talking about. I was talking total post count like the one in you info panel next to each of your posts.
And if that came across wrong earlier I apologize. I was just trying to note fact, not belittle you. I can't say for certain your true skill level. And I'll reiterate, we still don't have much to go on.
This is drivel-filled busywork -- it goes through a lot of words to say nothing whatsoever.
Quote from Salvor Hardin »
When Holk, after two days of steady work, succeeded in eliminating meaningless statements, vague gibberish, useless qualifications -- in short, all the goo and dribble -- he found he had nothing left. Everything canceled out. Shockwave07, gentlemen, in five days of discussion didn't say one damned thing, and said it so you never noticed.
@Kraj: Thanks. That clears up a big misunderstanding I had reading your posts. Suspicion has dropped for now.
And I think B_E is trying to deflect, and poorly. (Could be a scum bus attempt, but ME is such a background player at this time l, I am not confident enough to say for sure at this juncture. And yes I have had my vote on him this whole time. Kind of hoped a little pressure would get him going on something, but all we have is a claim of vanilla town. He maybe a case of too kinky to torture. Look it up on tvtropes.)
Unvote: Mirrorentity, Vote: Burning Earth
Didn't think terribly much of the vote shift before B_E's townflip, but it looks worse in that light. I see this as inexperienced scum seeing the mirror wagon dying and hopping to a new mislynch candidate instead of sticking to his guns.
Especially given how...apologetic he was to have been on the mirror wagon. Apologetic in a subtle way, by retroactively explaining his reasoning for being on the wagon without being pressed on the matter.
(And circumstantially, shock's vote was the one to push B_E to L-2.)
The case against Burning Earth is similar to the one on Mirror Entity in one reguard, both have had a lot of low substance posts making it hard to determine allegiance.
Thankfully the pbpa provides something into his thought process. It is apparent that he is focusing on one target quite clearly. But for now, Unvote: Burning Earth.
Will get something going in the morning.
Yeah, Shockwave is reading like inexperienced, weak-willed scum after B_E's flip. He's simply unwilling to stay on town wagons after they've reached their peak. Also, this unvote came immediately after town-Kraj said "Still not feeling the B_E case," and Shockwave makes no comment on the fresh new scum-Void case in this post.
It's not particularly telling that Shockwave wasn't on either of the L-2 wagons since they were at L-2, but it's worth noting that from this point to the end of Day 1 Shockwave said nothing meaningful on either scum-Void or town-mirror. The end result of the Day was unclear and Shockwave stayed out of the fray.
Who says it couldn't have been the other way around with the vig and NK TMCT?
I made this same post as scum in Presidential Mafia -- in both cases, Occam pointed overwhelmingly toward one player being the NK and the other being a vig. Perceived slips like that are a pyrite mine for scum because they're so easy to call out and attack ("you know who the mafia killed? -- you must be scum!")
Just another post that most likely comes from inexperienced scum.
@TMCT & Kraj: okay, I can see why post 21 and my reaction to RVS is bad. But at the same time there is another side to the coin with dKings double post non-existant RVS posts that DCIII saw some false red flags in. It wasn't exactly what I was thinking about at the time, but no RVS=early joke vote read muddying.
This is a handwave and Shockwave admits that it isn't even a relevant response ("it wasn't exactly what I was thinking about at the time").
I need Burning Earth to flip to see if I am actually right about this or just over reading something.
This continued line of thought has me conflicted. On one hand, I can see the inherent towniness in wanting information that affects the outcome of the game, especially information based on his own analysis. On the other hand, Shockwave's language is both egocentric -- he explicitly cares about resolving an issue to see if he's right -- and artificial -- resolving the "issue" doesn't do much to help the future game state, as would resolving a player dichotomy or a player's claim.
I'm leaning toward the latter. I see scum that has trouble staying on town wagons (as he did on Day 1) looking for further "incentive" to stay on one.
All in all Shockwave is my strongest read (you'll get my others soon). I also have another reason to suspect Shockwave is scum -- this one will sort itself out before the game ends.
Wow... With that many post that can be used against me I'm surprised Rhand isn't setting himself against me at this point.
Alright, now I'll see if I can counter some of these points against me:
Post 21 "handwave": Alright, I can see where you might think that, but can you answer me why it would be exactly what I was thinking at the time of the post if A) I had not known dKings flip at the time, a point irrelevant if I am scum, and B) the example I used was an event that happened after the post in question?
Busywork: A bad habit of mine. You should see this one example in (Redacted)... You can call that a handwave if you wish.
Alright I had two mislynch wagons I was on (ME and BE), but I chose to push neither as the Void wagon gained traction. I missed a lot during that time as I got prodded during this time as well.
I can see why you can attach your mindset to my play, but at that point I had not sorted it out in my head, as I later found the flavor difference in the two Night One NKs.
Your point about "anyone else's thoughts" is because I am still learning the ropes of NK analysis. My role can benefit from knowing where the NK will likely be. And I wasn't confident enough that my analysis would lead me in the right direction. I wanted a better player to give me an idea what they might be thinking.
I was only partially right in my actions last night as I had a feeling a more expirienced player that was not seen as likely town was gone after, but I chose the wrong target and now all my actions are for naught.
----------
That said given the time between your gut reads and now I'm surprised you haven't had your other reads sorted out. I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt that OOG is the cause of this, but don't make us wait forever.
Plus just RVS. No reason to leave it until everyone has had a go!
This is not a townish mindset. a) Wants to stay in the scum-safe haven of RVS and b) doesn't immediately want non-RVS (read: real) posts to analyze from other players.
That's a harsh assessment for one post.
There are players in the mafia universe that just enjoy RVS?
I can't say for sure how new Burning Earth is to Mafia, but I am aware of him in one off site game, on-going so can't use any content there. But not game related is his total post count on it. Currently it is rather low, like here. Implied at least one previous game in sign-ups.
Probably total in game posts on site.
Do you have any completed games? Talking games you've been in and have finished up.
Alright, now I do see what you are talking about, and good to note you are keeping track of activity levels. But not sure how that helps determine alignment.
Also that wasn't what I was talking about. I was talking total post count like the one in you info panel next to each of your posts.
And if that came across wrong earlier I apologize. I was just trying to note fact, not belittle you. I can't say for certain your true skill level. And I'll reiterate, we still don't have much to go on.
This is drivel-filled busywork -- it goes through a lot of words to say nothing whatsoever.
This is a fair point, but in my experience Shock always posts fluff like that early game. Do you have examples of this from farther in the game?
Quote from Salvor Hardin »
When Holk, after two days of steady work, succeeded in eliminating meaningless statements, vague gibberish, useless qualifications -- in short, all the goo and dribble -- he found he had nothing left. Everything canceled out. Shockwave07, gentlemen, in five days of discussion didn't say one damned thing, and said it so you never noticed.
@Kraj: Thanks. That clears up a big misunderstanding I had reading your posts. Suspicion has dropped for now.
And I think B_E is trying to deflect, and poorly. (Could be a scum bus attempt, but ME is such a background player at this time l, I am not confident enough to say for sure at this juncture. And yes I have had my vote on him this whole time. Kind of hoped a little pressure would get him going on something, but all we have is a claim of vanilla town. He maybe a case of too kinky to torture. Look it up on tvtropes.)
Unvote: Mirrorentity, Vote: Burning Earth
Didn't think terribly much of the vote shift before B_E's townflip, but it looks worse in that light. I see this as inexperienced scum seeing the mirror wagon dying and hopping to a new mislynch candidate instead of sticking to his guns.
Especially given how...apologetic he was to have been on the mirror wagon. Apologetic in a subtle way, by retroactively explaining his reasoning for being on the wagon without being pressed on the matter.
(And circumstantially, shock's vote was the one to push B_E to L-2.)
I'm not seeing the apologeticness. I think what he says about ME makes sense from a town pov. Only the 'bus' part rubs me wrong.
The case against Burning Earth is similar to the one on Mirror Entity in one reguard, both have had a lot of low substance posts making it hard to determine allegiance.
Thankfully the pbpa provides something into his thought process. It is apparent that he is focusing on one target quite clearly. But for now, Unvote: Burning Earth.
Will get something going in the morning.
Yeah, Shockwave is reading like inexperienced, weak-willed scum after B_E's flip. He's simply unwilling to stay on town wagons after they've reached their peak. Also, this unvote came immediately after town-Kraj said "Still not feeling the B_E case," and Shockwave makes no comment on the fresh new scum-Void case in this post.
This is a valid point. And he doesn't adress the part about not commenting on the Void part in his response.
It's not particularly telling that Shockwave wasn't on either of the L-2 wagons since they were at L-2, but it's worth noting that from this point to the end of Day 1 Shockwave said nothing meaningful on either scum-Void or town-mirror. The end result of the Day was unclear and Shockwave stayed out of the fray.
Who says it couldn't have been the other way around with the vig and NK TMCT?
I made this same post as scum in Presidential Mafia -- in both cases, Occam pointed overwhelmingly toward one player being the NK and the other being a vig. Perceived slips like that are a pyrite mine for scum because they're so easy to call out and attack ("you know who the mafia killed? -- you must be scum!")
Just another post that most likely comes from inexperienced scum.
Shockwave likes analysing nights. I think this is null for him.
@TMCT & Kraj: okay, I can see why post 21 and my reaction to RVS is bad. But at the same time there is another side to the coin with dKings double post non-existant RVS posts that DCIII saw some false red flags in. It wasn't exactly what I was thinking about at the time, but no RVS=early joke vote read muddying.
This is a handwave and Shockwave admits that it isn't even a relevant response ("it wasn't exactly what I was thinking about at the time").
I need Burning Earth to flip to see if I am actually right about this or just over reading something.
This continued line of thought has me conflicted. On one hand, I can see the inherent towniness in wanting information that affects the outcome of the game, especially information based on his own analysis. On the other hand, Shockwave's language is both egocentric -- he explicitly cares about resolving an issue to see if he's right -- and artificial -- resolving the "issue" doesn't do much to help the future game state, as would resolving a player dichotomy or a player's claim.
I'm leaning toward the latter. I see scum that has trouble staying on town wagons (as he did on Day 1) looking for further "incentive" to stay on one.
I need to ponder on this. Is it really not a town mindset to talk in first person about such things? He's talking about his own reads.
Quote from TMCT »
All in all Shockwave is my strongest read (you'll get my others soon). I also have another reason to suspect Shockwave is scum -- this one will sort itself out before the game ends.
Vote Shockwave07
I don't like that last sentence. I feel like pushing you up to claim range now just to get it explained
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Mod: What time tomorrow does the day close? Timezone and whether daylight savings is used would be appreciated.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
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Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
Spider-Man Mafia 3 (Off-Site: NGA)
Metroid Mafia (Off-Site: Mafia Universe)
Burning Earth (3): Antny223, DCIII, Shockwave07
Archmage Eternal (2): Kraj, Nny
The Most Curious Thing (2): Rhand, Burning Earth
Not Voting (2): Archmage Eternal, The Most Curious Thing
With 9 alive, it's 5 votes to lynch.
Day Two will end no later than 11:59PM EST, Monday, December 16th (less than 32 hours from the time of this post).
Nny's stance on BE doesn't seem to make sense, especially since he was voting for him earlier in the day. In fact in addition to everything else he's dodged he never answered my question on his opinions of BE.
AE still hasn't answered my question on TMCT either! Sigh. I'm also a little confused as why he's now changed his views on Kraj in his last post when he has been so adamant that Kraj is taking him out of context til now.
The one thing that bugs me about Kraj's 631 is that in 540 he does say that DCIII's vote was influential in his decision to jump on Void's wagon when he did. The timing may be close but the order is important here as I'm of the impression that if DCIII had stayed on BE's wagon, Kraj stays on MirrorEntity.
There's a few more hours to the deadline than I thought. So if the Day is still going on tomorrow morning I'll respond to anything else that catches my eye.
Can you ask it again?
I'm sold on BE being scum. I'm getting a stronger read on Nny now. I have to take a step back and read Krajs' posts taking my personal thoughts out because he does look to be genuine in his thought process. That's what has me taking a step back. Taking myself out of the equation, do I get a scummy mind set behind his posts? I will do that over the night.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
Certainly the order is important, but enough to come to two completely opposite conclusions given the rest of the facts? And yes, I likely would have stayed on M_E if someone hadn't placed a 3rd vote on Void and showed that a wagon was viable. As I've said before.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
And if you were Cyan, or Seppel, I probably wouldn't blink an eye. But nothing else about your play in this game suggests you are a pure-gut player.
This is nothing more than splitting hairs. You both suggested he shouldn't be resigned to being lynched. You both suggested he might not be lynched. You both said he wouldn't behave this way if he was town. Spinning one was condemnation and the other as just trying to be helpful is nonsense. Besides, why would you feel the need to push ME to straighten out when the last thing you said about him was that you are fine with his lynch?
First of all, all I did with that list of posts was to provide facts. You are the one adding implications to each individual one, not me.
Your claim is that you did not behave exactly as you said you would as scum because, as scum, you would have continued to push M_E to the bitter end, regardless of how obviously scum Void was or how inevitable his lynch looked. And what you actually did was continue to push M_E even after he had made it abundantly clear he was scum, but did not continue to the bitter end.
This is accurate. But I do not buy that, as scum, you would never ever switch over to an obviously doomed buddy in favor of a highly vulnerable townie. Nor do I buy that you still had doubts about Void after he self-voted, but after this post:
Where he does not confirm your meta evidence and declares M_E town that you suddenly realized he's scum.
Nor do I buy that a player of your experience would clear a player based on a caught scum calling him town.
Yes, Antny sitting squarely on the fence and TMCT's stated preference for M_E are the two posts that suggest there was the slightest chance M_E might still be lynched after Void self-voted. I'll give you that.
I'm withdrawing this point. Rereading now, I see I misinterpreted your post to mean you're are undecided between B_E and TMCT when you were saying you don't have a read on them yet.
As I've pointed out before, here you're just trying to discredit my case in the exact same fashion Void did to Rhand.
Um....wouldn't you always have a suspicious mindset about every player on page 1? This point would be a non-issue if DCIII wasn't pretty obviously town and Void confirmed scum, but they are and therefore this is a minor point against you, regardless of your explanation.
Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying you tried to do.
Yup, pretty much the explanation I already said I expected. It's just a matter of which explanation rings more true.
I agree. But you didn't say that. I can't fault you, though, for not forming a more thorough opinion on B_E. I can't bring myself to reread him either when so many of his posts make my eyes bleed.
OK, but admitting a flaw doesn't change the scummy behavior. And you know what? A big flaw of mine is I have a hard time seeing players as scum when they agree with me. So I try to recognize when that's influencing my reads and fix it. I don't just go with it and admit later why I screwed up.
This is an interesting point.
Lordy, do I have a tough time seeing this as anything but backpedaling.
And since I earlier called his town/scum list awful:
Not only is there nothing here he hasn't said before, there's nothing here that everyone else isn't saying other than maybe his opinion on me and NNy. His town reads are everyone else's town reads. His scum reads are the two players he's voted today, plus everyone else's favorite scum read. And not the tiniest scrap of an opinion on the remaining three players. Not one little detail that shows he's bothering to try and form his own opinions on anyone other than me or NNy.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
As it is clear TMCT is not today's lynch, unvote,vote Archmage Eternal
Sure.
The second part was really my point, DCIII's vote is integral to the wagon forming, yours helped but wasn't as important - which is what I think Rhand was trying to say in his T/S list.
Your vote may not be a bus vote but it is more likely to be a bus vote than DCIII's given the information.
I feel obliged to point out that you're gonna be lynched toDay and that's gonna happen today. If you have anything more useful than a counterwagon you should post it now.
This post at least feels genuine.
I've reread the Void wagon forming part of the game.
Explain me please: what happened between you voicing that you would support a Void wagon and you actually voting that convinced you to change your vote?
I'm curious as to your reasoning for this conclusion. Guess how many people voted for Void between my vote and his self-vote. (Hint: it's zero.)
Yup. I expect to check back before tonight's deadline but I can't guarantee.
Unvote, Vote: Burning Earth
It's nice to know he supports lynching AE, though
I'm not sure how to explain this again any differently.
I had a gut-suspicion of Void but very little evidence to support it.
I was more than happy to lynch M_E, but I did not agree with the wagon on B_E. I did not want to move my vote off of M_E to a wagon that might not go anywhere. With 7 to lynch and the deadline being a factor, and with B_E and M_E as the only two players brought to claim range thus far, 2 or 3 votes might be ignored. With 4 votes, only one more person has to agree to be claim range. That's harder to ignore.
And I'll point you to my earlier statement to Antny: nobody else voted Void before he self-voted. After DCIII, I was the rest of the wagon.
I'll also remind you that it wasn't until Void's response to your case, particularly how he tried to paint you as scummy over it, that convinced me he was scum.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
This...But at the time the ME and BE wagons where taking off and I never looked back on TMCT.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
I don't know if I can explain it better (at least not tonight, it's been a long day). DCIII voted when there was just two people on the wagon and you waited to see if there anyone else was going to vote Void before shifting. Since there's no way for you to have known at the time whether anyone else would have joined the wagon I'm not sure how I can factor you second sentence into the equation.
Comparing just those two votes DCIII's will always be more important for reasons we both agree on.
I might not agree with Rhand about your vote being the likeliest bus vote but I can see where he was coming from and I disagreed with your post 631 about your actions and DCIII's being similar enough to merit equal treatment.
DCIII's post before the self vote (287,315, 322) are all trying to get that fifth player on the wagon. I just don't believe a scum player would be trying to build a wagon on a scumbuddy at that time. Your initial posts around that time (301, 307, 311) are a little more on the fence and that you waited til after Void responded to push the wagon (349).
So DCIII's vote is very unlikely to a bus vote in my mind.
Your vote - it could easily be a town vote, but still as scum if you thought Rhand's case was strong I could see the possibility of a bus, particularly if you feared others were about to jump on after DCIII. Post 349 suggests it was probably not a bus. I could be wrong. I don't know. I'm s little rushed right now so if I'm around toMorrow I'll explain it better if this is making no sense.
@AE Thanks for answering. I'd go back and check what it was Rhand's talking about but Only Connect is calling. Gonna have to leave this for toDay.
Town Win % = 75%
Mafia Win % = 75%
Overall Win % = 75%
Completed Game Log
2014: Best Mafia Performance (Group)
2014: Most Improved Player
2014: Best Town Player
2014: Best Overall Player
I'm good for Today.
Town Win % = 75%
Mafia Win % = 75%
Overall Win % = 75%
Completed Game Log
2014: Best Mafia Performance (Group)
2014: Most Improved Player
2014: Best Town Player
2014: Best Overall Player
A little over 7 hours.
Town Win % = 75%
Mafia Win % = 75%
Overall Win % = 75%
Completed Game Log
2014: Best Mafia Performance (Group)
2014: Most Improved Player
2014: Best Town Player
2014: Best Overall Player
unvote, vote BE
Congratulations.
I certainly do.
It was slightly tongue-in-cheek, actually, as well as a jab at AE. I suppose you couldn't tell that from my rather glib monotone all game, though.
I largely disagreed with the points against AE that were presented prior to me making that post. Stating that I "actually" agree with that specific point is, in fact, me making that clear. Why do I necessarily have to agree with your arguments if I believe you might be town?
I work 50+ hours a week; I bit off more than I can chew by joining 2 games at once, so I'm doing my best to keep up with the game when I have down time and not be a burden on everyone else by making useless posts or replacing out. I'd apologize for having a life outside of Mafia, but doing so would be absolutely ridiculous. At any rate, my activity/amount of content/effort I am willing to expend is an indicator of what's going on in my life, not what's going on in the game.
Frankly, that was just me displaying confidence in my read on Void. I had no contention as to whether or not Rhand actually followed through with the case, as I felt what I dredged up against Void was sufficient grounds to lynch him on.
AE and B_E's T/S lists are awful and I will happily see either one of them swing.
Fine with me. I think there's a pretty clear dichotomy between B_E and AE at this point. I also poked my head in a couple pages ago before going back to the point I left off at and noticed one of your posts which reminded me that B_E was actually getting run up around the time mirrorentity was, so bump him down to leaning scum on my list for that reason. I've been so uninvested in this game due to being busy that I forgot a few things from Day 1, such as that. So...thanks, I guess?
This was the post.
Also, this is mudslinging (as well as a blatant lie), as I had not posted after you asked me about B_E.
And it seems that's a lynch.
OK. That's fair. Obviously I don't see things the same way but I can't say you're way off base. Except the part about my post 631. I never said mine and DCIII's actions deserved equal treatment, I said they were similar enough that drawing completely opposite conclusions from them doesn't make sense.
Current New Favorite Person™: Mallory Archer
She knows why.
Day Two Final Vote Count
Burning_Earth (5): Antny223, DCIII, Shockwave07, Kraj, Rhand
Archmage Eternal (2): Nny, Burning Earth
Not Voting (2): Archmage Eternal, The Most Curious Thing
Rick jerked awake with a start. He cursed himself for succumbing to exhaustion and checked each radio channel for the hundredth time. The late afternoon sun shone directly into the department store, illuminating a stray walker among the mannequins. Glenn had used an abandoned convertible's car alarm to draw most of the walkers away from the department store, but it was impossible to tell how many of the dead remained inside. It was also impossible to tell how many of the living remained. Rick tried not to think about that as he waited for Glenn to return. The waiting was the hardest part.
As the sun began to set, Glenn hurried toward the store on foot. He had left the convertible at the edge of town so as to make a more discreet return. Still covered in guts, he had almost managed to sneak his way back when it began to rain. As the smell of death started to wash away from him, walkers seemed to notice. One in particular walked right up to Glenn and growled. Suddenly, an axe buried itself into the walker's head. Rick yelled at Glenn to get into the store, and the younger man was all too happy to oblige. Rick spared a second to admire his handiwork before following suit.
Burning_Earth has been lynched.
He was Walker (Town Vanilla).
Night Two will end no later than 11:59PM EST Thursday, December 19th.
Please send in Night actions as soon as possible and inform me if you have an optional Night action you do not wish to take.
As Night fell, a mad rush piled into the department store from the street and alleyway. Most of the walkers lost the scent of the living and began wandering aimlessly through the first floor. Meanwhile, Rick and Glenn crept around undetected. The sound of the convertible pierced the silent Night and just as quickly faded away. And then another gunshot, this one muffled by the stairwell, echoed through the building. By the time the walkers gravitated toward the sound, Rick was long gone.
Kraj has been killed.
Kraj was Walker (Town Two-Shot Tracker).
It is now Day Three.
With 7 alive, it's 4 votes to lynch.
Day Three will end no later than 11:59PM EST Sunday, January 12th.
Posting to check in. Will have content soon.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
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I hope TMCT catches up soon now. It's between him, AE and Nny now.
We have room for a mislynch, so unless I am wrong about my town reads, i think we have this in the bag.
Rhand - Finding and escalating Void when the ME and BE wagons were viable is enough to place him here for me, also he has been scum hunting all game and driving his reads forward.
Antny - Interactions with Void. Have covered that I don't think Void would act as he did around Antny with me in this game, also as his first game, I don't think it likely that Antny would feel comfortable interacting with Void so openly as he did if he was on the same team. I also liked his effort Day 2 a lot better than his Day 1 play.
Shockwave - This Shock feels very similar to the Shock I just played with in Futurama and also isn't much different than the other town Shocks I've read. His reads seem genuine. Also, I picked up on something in thread that makes me think he's Town.
------------------------------------------------------------------
So that leaves Nny, TMCT, and AE as my suspects at this point.
I don't think it at all likely that AE and Nny are scum together based on their interactions Yesterday. Not that scum couldn't interact like that, but AE started pushing Nny when really only Antny had issues with him and the rest of the group still mostly viewed him as Town based on his Void push. If they were teammates, that would also mean that Nny would have decided to bus the hell out of both of his teammates when it wasn't a necessary play - possible but I find that unlikely.
So, based on PoE via my other reads alone:
Vote: The Most Curious Thing
As for non PoE reasoning - This post below very much stood out after reading over the Night:
Here, he leaves open suspicion on both Town-flipped players while also appearing to be helpful by giving general guidance around pre-flip analysis.
Here he unnecessarily defends Rhand, really the only player pressuring him at this juncture of the game.
Here he brushes off Rhand's meta read on Void and warns Rhand against reading him this way. This in the same post where he keeps open suspicion on both ME and BE, he brushes off the Void push
Yesterday was quiet from TMCT but when he was posting, he didn't follow through on this.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Then there's also:
Also, yesterday his entire T/S list was comprised of the most inexperienced players in the game.
His initial catch up post offered few concrete reads and, at times, was inconsistent with his final conclusions.
My theory on why Rhand is alive, since he's pretty much everyone's top town read, is that he was the player pushing TMCT the hardest.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
@Rhand - why did you think that Kraj might be the NK?
Town Win % = 75%
Mafia Win % = 75%
Overall Win % = 75%
Completed Game Log
2014: Best Mafia Performance (Group)
2014: Most Improved Player
2014: Best Town Player
2014: Best Overall Player
I'm in the unfortunate position of having been dreadful since the middle of D1 and now being fairly certain that I'm going to have trouble fighting my lynch. For that, I'm sorry.
We're at a point in the game now where I don't want to be alive for LyLo -- if we lynch a townie other than me Today, I rate our chances at winning very low. This is not a request to be lynched Today: at the very least, I want to reevaluate the game in light of one of my scumspects and another of my not-town reads both flipping town. With only two scum left in six players, I'd much prefer to lynch a player I feel very strongly about (Shockwave?)
But failing obvious scum, yes, I may be the best lynch Today.
Be back later.
I've decided that I think this is the remaining scum team.
Town Win % = 75%
Mafia Win % = 75%
Overall Win % = 75%
Completed Game Log
2014: Best Mafia Performance (Group)
2014: Most Improved Player
2014: Best Town Player
2014: Best Overall Player
TMCT, care to follow through? You haven't come back to it but now want Shock run up?
Give me a run down on Shock.
I'd agree but I had such a high town read on TMCT early D1. His departure from Nny to Shock does raise flags. At this point consider my vote on Nny. Holding my vote until everyone checks in.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
1) If Dkingsland didn't die because he tied BE and Void together why did he die Night 1.
2) Why did Void self-hammer?
With both ME and BE town I think that Void would have enough room to escape with only 4 votes against.
This seems too certain, no comment on BE, no comment on Kraj and I don't think he's been taken aback by either flip.
Nny being one of the remaining scum looks very likely right now. TMCT being his scumbuddy makes the most sense looking over the remaining players.
And I think he wanted to create some mislynches while also giving us some targets to draw false scum connections from. The self hammer sealed what connections he wanted to leave.
It is just speculation, but it is what I am wondering.
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I'll probably be voting TMCT but I want to see him catch up, explain his Shockwave read and post a T/S with reasoning on every read first.
My commentary on B_E came yesterDay, which led to my current AE vote. I read Kraj as town from Day 1. Why should I be taken aback? On what grounds should I be lamenting the death of our Tracker/a Vanilla? Or the fact that I was wrong about B_E? Please explain the town motivation for doing such.
You missed one:
I didn't. The two aren't mutually exclusive. You could pressure bothwhile still voting AE. You and TMCT have been applying token pressure/suspicion on each other all game but not following through to drive much of that read forward. There are two scum remaining and the simple vote of AE to start the Day right after TMCT's post did nothing to convince me that you intended to hunt or pressure him.
Town Win % = 75%
Mafia Win % = 75%
Overall Win % = 75%
Completed Game Log
2014: Best Mafia Performance (Group)
2014: Most Improved Player
2014: Best Town Player
2014: Best Overall Player
Because BE flipping town and Kraj being NK has changed the gamestate and I expected at least some acknowledgement of that. Slamming down a vote and saying nothing leaves the impression that your sole interest is lynching AE toDay and you think there's nothing else worth discussing.
What are your thoughts on TMCT's last post and how do you feel on lynching TMCT toDay?
And what exactly made you think AE was more likely to be scum than me at the end of yesterday?
If he somehow isn't, then I'll need to re-evaluate everything as one or more of those other reads won't be able to be correct.
TMCT is my most confident read and that's where my vote will stay Today.
Town Win % = 75%
Mafia Win % = 75%
Overall Win % = 75%
Completed Game Log
2014: Best Mafia Performance (Group)
2014: Most Improved Player
2014: Best Town Player
2014: Best Overall Player
It should be pretty apparent, then, to anybody reading my posts that I think that Antny and AE are the two most likely players at present to be scum. Why are you ignoring that?
You must be joking. My acknowledgment of the changed gamestate was to vote for AE as a result of B_E flipping town - I did state on Day 2 that I believed there was a dichotomy between the two of them. Try to keep up with the rest of us, will you?
I think it's a null-to-slightly-town post. While it's unlikely that scum would offer themselves up as a lynch to clear up some reads at this stage in the game when we're clearly ahead with one dead scum, it could easily be WIFOM if TMCT is confident that he's not going to be lynched. However, I would expect him to put something more analogous to effort into getting somebody else lynched by now were he scum in this scenario. Given that's obviously not the case, I currently feel more comfortable lynching you or AE for the Day, though I would prefer AE because of the dichotomy I perceived between him and B_E on Day 2.
The fact that I thought B_E and AE could not be of the same alignment paired with AE's Day 1 approach towards the Void/mirrorentity wagons.
I suddenly realised I should have questioned you on this sooner; why have you only bothered listing one possibility here? You've mentioned the clear dichotomy between BE and AE and above you say your certain their not the same alignment yet you yesterday you only consider what to do in a BE townflip, while making no mention of what happens if BE flips scum (you were reading him as leaning scum at the time).
Back your previous post you describe AE as oozing scum by the end of Day yet he was still a lighter scum read than me in your T/S list a few post earlier l so again I ask, what between then and the end of the day to made you want to move AE to the top of your scumreads?
So, then you're confident that AE and Antny are the scum team to the point that you don't need to investigate or pressure other players? I haven't seen a post to that effect, i.e. you feel like you've solved the game and it's those two and here's why. In fact, looking at your T/S list:
That looks like a list that hasn't nearly been solved yet. There are two null players, one of which is still in the game, there are two lean scum players, one of which is TMCT. Other than your most recent response to Antny, I haven't seen anything where you started feeling better about TMCT and why.
You had TMCT on your suspect list very early in the game, even listing him as a player you'd be willing to lynch - but you have offered little to no pressure on him over the entirety of the game. If you had that read on him, I'd think you'd have done more to present a solid case on him or to pressure him to get a better grasp on that read. If your read had changed over the game, I'd expect that to have been reflected in your T/S list - but you still have him as scummy. Your actions around TMCT vs your views on him don't add up.
Additionally, looking over that T/S list again, I see that you still mentioned not believing my town slip. At first, I brushed that off and thought, well, he didn't believe that but he's still reading the rest of what I'm doing as town... but let's think about that. I acknowledged with TMCT that it was, in fact, a town slip because I hadn't read the full OP. If you don't believe that, then that should be ringing HUGE alarm bells with you. What motivation would I have for lying about that other than attempting to appear Town and why, as Town, would I make up a lie to attempt to appear more Town? Shouldn't my play just speak for itself as Town?
It's inconsistent with an inquisitive mindset that you didn't press that harder on both me and TMCT.
It's time for everyone to listen to me on TMCT and Nny.
Town Win % = 75%
Mafia Win % = 75%
Overall Win % = 75%
Completed Game Log
2014: Best Mafia Performance (Group)
2014: Most Improved Player
2014: Best Town Player
2014: Best Overall Player
If B_E flipped scum, that would have indicated a town AE to me, which would have led to my pursuit of you on this Day. I'm quite certain you can't be this bad at reading comprehension; why are you being deliberately obtuse?
I've had a strong scum read on you since Day 1. B_E's alignment was still up in the air at the time, so naturally I wanted to resolve the dichotomy between the two of them before we reached a critical junction in the game to where we would have lost had we made the wrong decision. That said, I'm absolutely convinced at this point that you and AE are the scumteam, but B_E flipping town makes AE close to 100% confirmed scum in my eyes due to their exchanges from Day 2.
Perhaps you should consider reading my posts, then? You know, as opposed to not reading them, which is clearly what you are doing in lieu of that.
Are you suggesting that:
I should prefer to lynch a null read over a scum read?
I should prefer to lynch a leaning scum read over a scum read?
Please explain your logic.
I wasn't aware I needed to outline every single thought I have on the game in explicit detail for you to be able to follow along with my mental faculties. Why so needy? Additionally, where have I expressed feeling better about TMCT at all? There's a reason AE was below TMCT on my list - that being that I feel AE is more likely to be scum than TMCT. Finally, while I'm confident that I have the last two scum pegged, I don't see why I shouldn't say, "I don't feel completely comfortable about these other players; this is likely where I'd look next if I'm wrong about someone" when the goal of a T/S list is to lay out how you feel about every single other player in the game with reasoning. Do you disagree?
I've been pressuring Antny all game, and I've been pressuring AE recently. If I'm certain that these two are the last scum, then why wouldn't I focus my efforts on getting them lynched over a player I'm less certain about? When my time is limited, why shouldn't I work harder at getting my two primary scum reads lynched over, say, anyone else?
Not necessarily. I've intentionally "townslipped" as town before, and it was to give myself more credence in my pushes when other players were more dubious of my alignment. I don't know how much you've played, but even when I was a newer player, I was always doing sneaky things in an attempt to better my position, whether I was actually town or not. You hadn't done anything at the time to lead me to believe that you were town or scum at the point, and I'm naturally inclined towards misanthropic cynicism, especially since we're playing Mafia, so there was absolutely no reason for me to believe you were townslipping. Your play has been fine so far, for the most part, so I may be able to accept it as a townslip now; but with the state of the game ever-changing, why should play that you had not performed yet be a determining factor in whether or not I believed something you did early in the game? Do you think I am psychic?
Disagreed. You were a player I felt more inclined to observe than question, as I've been burned many a time on false "townslips" (as I've said before). Given that you didn't attempt to bolster your stances with the alleged townslip afterwards, I felt better about your play and was fine with disregarding you as potential scum. As for TMCT, again, I've felt more inclined to observe him than exert pressure directly, given that my priorities have been elsewhere in this game and IRL. If you don't believe me, that's fine; you're welcome to attempt to run me up. But you won't be getting me lynched.
This is not a townish mindset. a) Wants to stay in the scum-safe haven of RVS and b) doesn't immediately want non-RVS (read: real) posts to analyze from other players.
This is drivel-filled busywork -- it goes through a lot of words to say nothing whatsoever.
Didn't think terribly much of the vote shift before B_E's townflip, but it looks worse in that light. I see this as inexperienced scum seeing the mirror wagon dying and hopping to a new mislynch candidate instead of sticking to his guns.
Especially given how...apologetic he was to have been on the mirror wagon. Apologetic in a subtle way, by retroactively explaining his reasoning for being on the wagon without being pressed on the matter.
(And circumstantially, shock's vote was the one to push B_E to L-2.)
Yeah, Shockwave is reading like inexperienced, weak-willed scum after B_E's flip. He's simply unwilling to stay on town wagons after they've reached their peak. Also, this unvote came immediately after town-Kraj said "Still not feeling the B_E case," and Shockwave makes no comment on the fresh new scum-Void case in this post.
It's not particularly telling that Shockwave wasn't on either of the L-2 wagons since they were at L-2, but it's worth noting that from this point to the end of Day 1 Shockwave said nothing meaningful on either scum-Void or town-mirror. The end result of the Day was unclear and Shockwave stayed out of the fray.
Could be OOG and therefore null; could be scummy.
I made this same post as scum in Presidential Mafia -- in both cases, Occam pointed overwhelmingly toward one player being the NK and the other being a vig. Perceived slips like that are a pyrite mine for scum because they're so easy to call out and attack ("you know who the mafia killed? -- you must be scum!")
Just another post that most likely comes from inexperienced scum.
"Anyone else want to speculate why they chose him?"
This is a handwave and Shockwave admits that it isn't even a relevant response ("it wasn't exactly what I was thinking about at the time").
OOG: Thank you for the well wishes. I've been grappling with a lot lately.
This continued line of thought has me conflicted. On one hand, I can see the inherent towniness in wanting information that affects the outcome of the game, especially information based on his own analysis. On the other hand, Shockwave's language is both egocentric -- he explicitly cares about resolving an issue to see if he's right -- and artificial -- resolving the "issue" doesn't do much to help the future game state, as would resolving a player dichotomy or a player's claim.
I'm leaning toward the latter. I see scum that has trouble staying on town wagons (as he did on Day 1) looking for further "incentive" to stay on one.
All in all Shockwave is my strongest read (you'll get my others soon). I also have another reason to suspect Shockwave is scum -- this one will sort itself out before the game ends.
Vote Shockwave07
Alright, now I'll see if I can counter some of these points against me:
Post 21 "handwave": Alright, I can see where you might think that, but can you answer me why it would be exactly what I was thinking at the time of the post if A) I had not known dKings flip at the time, a point irrelevant if I am scum, and B) the example I used was an event that happened after the post in question?
Busywork: A bad habit of mine. You should see this one example in (Redacted)... You can call that a handwave if you wish.
Alright I had two mislynch wagons I was on (ME and BE), but I chose to push neither as the Void wagon gained traction. I missed a lot during that time as I got prodded during this time as well.
I can see why you can attach your mindset to my play, but at that point I had not sorted it out in my head, as I later found the flavor difference in the two Night One NKs.
Your point about "anyone else's thoughts" is because I am still learning the ropes of NK analysis. My role can benefit from knowing where the NK will likely be. And I wasn't confident enough that my analysis would lead me in the right direction. I wanted a better player to give me an idea what they might be thinking.
I was only partially right in my actions last night as I had a feeling a more expirienced player that was not seen as likely town was gone after, but I chose the wrong target and now all my actions are for naught.
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That said given the time between your gut reads and now I'm surprised you haven't had your other reads sorted out. I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt that OOG is the cause of this, but don't make us wait forever.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
Spider-Man Mafia 3 (Off-Site: NGA)
Metroid Mafia (Off-Site: Mafia Universe)
That's a harsh assessment for one post.
There are players in the mafia universe that just enjoy RVS?
I'm not seeing the apologeticness. I think what he says about ME makes sense from a town pov. Only the 'bus' part rubs me wrong.
This is a valid point. And he doesn't adress the part about not commenting on the Void part in his response.
Shockwave likes analysing nights. I think this is null for him.
Again, null I think.
I need to ponder on this. Is it really not a town mindset to talk in first person about such things? He's talking about his own reads.
I don't like that last sentence. I feel like pushing you up to claim range now just to get it explained