Don't like it; the window and percentage of times it is better than shock (which isn't good enough) is small enough that I don't want to include it (to me, killing an x/1 and doing one damage to the face isn't good enough value). I'm sure it's a stomping if you get to 2-1 on turn 2/3, but that seems like it would mainly happen vs. green.
Arc Trail is much better, but Forked Bolt's 2-for-1 vs. 1-for-1 scenario is at least 25%, at most 75%, which Shock simply can't do.
If Forked Bolt is disproportionately good against green, that's actually an argument for it I suppose as most of my red decks have the most difficulty against green decks.
I think 25% is a bit ambitious, especially when we have no hard data. Saying that it is worth a good 2-1 (not a turn 10 kill two tokens when the game is out of reach) 1/4 of the time seems high, let alone 75%. I'm not buying that.
I love Forked Bolt. I run it in 270. It kills *so many* creatures that in many cases, it's either as good or better than Chain Lightning because I can 2-for-1 with it.
Is it really that good? I passed it up because it seemed like a shock, which isn't cubable.... hmmm... maybe Dead / Gone finally gets cut...
When you kill a creature, it usually doesn't matter if you kill it with exactsies (1 point of damage via Forked Bolt) or if you reduce it to a charcoal briquette (Chain Lightning). Sure, there are pump effects, but those are minimal in cube. That's where the splitting ability really shines. To determine whether anything like Forked Bolt or Shock are cube-able in your cube, just take a look at how many creatures it kills in either mode. That will tell you if it's worth it or not.
When you kill a creature, it usually doesn't matter if you kill it with exactsies (1 point of damage via Forked Bolt) or if you reduce it to a charcoal briquette (Chain Lightning). Sure, there are pump effects, but those are minimal in cube. That's where the splitting ability really shines. To determine whether anything like Forked Bolt or Shock are cube-able in your cube, just take a look at how many creatures it kills in either mode. That will tell you if it's worth it or not.
To me, it's a question of running Forked Bolt over Dead/Gone, and that bounce a creature ability can really work out later in the game (aggro decks can bounce their opponent's fatty that could block.
I'll be adding it when I go up to 500 here pretty soon. I miss it at 450 a lot, and I was constantly looking for room at 360. I think it's great. But admittedly, I have an unfair attachment to dividable damage. There are just so many good 1-toughness targets. But for 1 mana, I'm either killing 2 1-toughness creatures, getting a Shower of Sparks or a Shock. That's a lot of modes for a 1cc spell.
And... not... bolt? These %'s should be used to evaluate your playgroup Nof, as opposed to using them to assist in card evaluation.
I lol'd. Yeah, some of these percentages are puzzling.
I think I've figured out what happens:
1) Lightning Bolt might get picked as 'the best card in the pack' relatively early in the draft, but then that drafter might switch colors and not use it. Whereas something like Sudden Shock won't get picked early, and it will table around until the mono-red drafter gets it kind of late, and will play it as the 22nd or 23rd card.
2) Or, lots of cards get taken over Lightning Bolt to the point where there is nothing playable in the pack for a certain drafter around the 6th-9th pick, so he takes it and doesn't play it because it was the best card in the pack, but he wasn't going to play any of the other cards. Sudden Shock will still get passed over at this point and eventually end up in the mono-red player's deck.
That's my theory for why some very bad cards are maindecked more often than clearly better cards.
What? You're using figures on cards with different sample sizes? Das crazy. I guess it'd be impossible to do, though (oh, new card? better throw out all the old data!)
Is it possible to get MD data on cards only for when the player has access to the proper mana? That'd be meaningful.
Is it possible to get MD data on cards only for when the player has access to the proper mana? That'd be meaningful.
It would be slightly more meaningful, but still irrelevant to how good the card actually is. I can be playing a white deck that wants Savannah Lions but not Wrath of God, but it doesn't mean their maindeck percentages would have any influence on how good/important they are for the cube.
I cut it from my 450 cube for giest flame. It just never did much aside from kill an x/1 and 1 to the dome. That's why my play group decided on giest flame. It's like forked bolt, but it's an instant and can be split over multiple turns. I guess the only real downside compared to forked bolt is it can't be a shock, but I can live with that considering they are both pretty lack luster.
It's not on the chopping block for me, most of the time it's card parity or a burn spell, and that is fine with me. And the other times where it's a 2 for 1 is insane, especially on a 1 mana card!
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Ive cut this from my 720 about 5 months ago. When I decide to go to 810 Ill probably re-add it unless a couple of more good burn spells get spoiled in the next 2-3 sets.
This guy was pretty good in it's standard days, and I've been seeing it pop up in legacy decks a bit lately.
Does anyone have an opinion on it? It seems like it could very easily get a 2-for-1, but does being a sorcery and only dealing 2 make it too weak?
I know that personally my cube has a lot of X/1 guys, mostly in the 2-drop slots. Might it be good here?
Plus, the art + flavor text is awesome.
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http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=385729
Arc Trail yes, Forked Bolt meh.
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If Forked Bolt is disproportionately good against green, that's actually an argument for it I suppose as most of my red decks have the most difficulty against green decks.
Blimpy's Aggro-Focused Cube (powered 360)
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-AA
I use descriptive language. Assume that I'm being nice and respectful. (I'll tell you when I'm not.)
My Cube: http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/9029
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When you kill a creature, it usually doesn't matter if you kill it with exactsies (1 point of damage via Forked Bolt) or if you reduce it to a charcoal briquette (Chain Lightning). Sure, there are pump effects, but those are minimal in cube. That's where the splitting ability really shines. To determine whether anything like Forked Bolt or Shock are cube-able in your cube, just take a look at how many creatures it kills in either mode. That will tell you if it's worth it or not.
What do I know, though? I run Shock in 270
To me, it's a question of running Forked Bolt over Dead/Gone, and that bounce a creature ability can really work out later in the game (aggro decks can bounce their opponent's fatty that could block.
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I lol'd. Yeah, some of these percentages are puzzling.
I think I've figured out what happens:
1) Lightning Bolt might get picked as 'the best card in the pack' relatively early in the draft, but then that drafter might switch colors and not use it. Whereas something like Sudden Shock won't get picked early, and it will table around until the mono-red drafter gets it kind of late, and will play it as the 22nd or 23rd card.
2) Or, lots of cards get taken over Lightning Bolt to the point where there is nothing playable in the pack for a certain drafter around the 6th-9th pick, so he takes it and doesn't play it because it was the best card in the pack, but he wasn't going to play any of the other cards. Sudden Shock will still get passed over at this point and eventually end up in the mono-red player's deck.
That's my theory for why some very bad cards are maindecked more often than clearly better cards.
Also, Blast From the Past is 54%. That should be 90%+ easily. -.-
Blimpy's Aggro-Focused Cube (powered 360)
I'm always open to suggestions on how to improve my cube. Take a look and ask a question, or give a constructive critique whenever you can.
Is it possible to get MD data on cards only for when the player has access to the proper mana? That'd be meaningful.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
It would be slightly more meaningful, but still irrelevant to how good the card actually is. I can be playing a white deck that wants Savannah Lions but not Wrath of God, but it doesn't mean their maindeck percentages would have any influence on how good/important they are for the cube.
My 630 Card Powered Cube
My Article - "Cube Design Philosophy"
My Article - "Mana Short: A study in limited resource management."
My 50th Set (P)review - Discusses my top 20 Cube cards from OTJ!
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
The Great Cube Map!
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Draft it here!
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/3pq