Should We Go Over The "Fiscal Cliff"?

[Captain_Morgan]

Originally Posted by Yorutenchi

3) Overrugulation isn't the root of the problem here in America. That is a conservative lie. The problem is the system is broken. The regulation is a response by the government to try and fix the brokenness. Companies have a lot less regulation that people like to believe. The reason they are in china is not due to regulations and jumping through hoops but rather they can get away with treating the workers like sub-human animals that work for a pay rate that if put in America would mean that they would STILL be on the tit of the government. That won't fix the "welfare state" but make the rich a lot richer. Thats the true intention there. The regulation really isn't as bad as people say. The taxes are at a record low. WHAT regulations are "over regulating" the market?

4) And its a global market. The idea you are proposing sound a lot like you think America is an independent market. While in truth the entire world is intertwined with the American market. We get our products from all around the world but that doesn't mean that we can fix the economy by producing more raw materials....

The way I approach the overregulated argument is rather simple. Think of a three layer sandwich, and then eat it every single day. For a large person this is possible, for a smaller person it is not and requires the process to be broken down. However, as with anything too much food in your system causes blocked arteries.

The sandwich is the three layers of government regulations, and the arteries are capital, labor, and time wasted on compliance. I have said before that we only need one of something, whether that is state or federal I don't care so as much it works. Regulatory compliance is a nightmare for manufacturing especially and to pretend otherwise is an outright joke.

I don't mean deregulate like how we did in the 1990's, but rather what Greenspan and Warren both agreed with stuff like paper work consolidation and the like. It should take work to make sure people are compliant, but not onerous for the government or for the capitalist to get into the game. The sooner a compliant and wisely ran plant and other business is up and running, the better on return on investment for everyone.

If you have to send paper work in triplicate form with the same data to three different agencies all rating the same thing, what work does that do for anyone? Even the regulators could be regulating something more profound in other areas if they had to do less paperwork themselves.

This is the way I see deregulation and small government, whenever A@W was starting up they approached FDR about using steam on their root bear mugs. The steam was cracking their mugs from high heat and costing them untold profits, so instead switching over to soap and water they were able to increase their cash reserve while still making sure that the public wasn't sick from unwashed mugs. Which in anarchy, an unwashed mug would be more common.

[Yorutenchi]

ALERT-
House passed the Senate bill. It is now going to Obama. I doubt he will not sign it. Its possible he has already signed it but no official news. But it is offically passed congress and on its way to the president. It was more difficult getting through the house but it had the strongest bi-partisan support EVER of any non-trivial bill in the 112th congressional history in the senate.

EDIT:
However the bill is very much a short term measure. In 3 months at the end of March we face another cliff that should be better at making a more permanent legislation. However it will be handled by the 113th congress not the 112th congress. I spent a few hours watching some goodbye speeches from congressional members that are leaving. It was rather touching. I do hope that this next congress will be less extreme and more prone to bi-partisan efforts. There was a decent bi-partisan work with this final bill that will kick the problem down the road a few months for some real debate. I can only hope they actually start working on this Friday after they get sworn in on Thursday.

I'm still reading the hundred and fifity-something page bill that has been proposed but its very much compromised on both sides it seems. It trends towards democrats but not as bad as the last ones. At least not thus far. I'm on page 22 right now.

[Card Slinger J]

Yep, we averted the Fiscal Cliff but still "kicked the can down the road". But guess what's coming next? Another Credit Rating Downgrade, I'm callin' it!

AA to A here we come...

And people around the world wonder why the United States is now the laughing stock of the advanced world. House Republicans just make me wanna puke especially those douschebags from the Tea Party...

[Random Nerd]

Originally Posted by Card Slinger J

Yep, we averted the Fiscal Cliff but still "kicked the can down the road". But guess what's coming next? Another Credit Rating Downgrade, I'm callin' it!

AA to A here we come...

And people around the world wonder why the United States is now the laughing stock of the advanced world. House Republicans just make me wanna puke especially those douschebags from the Tea Party...

At this point I am happy they even agreed to essentially do nothing. First thing they have agreed on in years.

[jeffbcrandall]

Originally Posted by Card Slinger J

Yep, we averted the Fiscal Cliff but still "kicked the can down the road". But guess what's coming next? Another Credit Rating Downgrade, I'm callin' it!

AA to A here we come...

And people around the world wonder why the United States is now the laughing stock of the advanced world. House Republicans just make me wanna puke especially those douschebags from the Tea Party...

You are of course entitled to your opinion, if you dont like the house republicans, thats up to you, however, they did pass the bipartisan bill that the senate came up with. I for one am glad to see that they put their partisan politics aside and agreed to pass it, to at least prevent us from going off the cliff, or at least averting the main problems that would have occured if we had for even a single business day.

What we do have now though, as mentioned, is a situation where we have around 2 months or so, to figure something out both in regards to the cuts side of things that didnt really get dealt with with this agreement, and of course the debt ceiling. I do have a feeling we will likely be right back here again in 2 months, unfortunately, but with any luck, having that extra 2 months and having actually come to the most recent agreement will give them a better working relationship to come up with a deal to avert any other issues.

Both sides have had significant issues this entire time dealing with this stuff, everyone from both parties, both houses of congress, and even the white house. I was glad to see Biden get in there and help them work something out, so that was certainly a promising turn of events. I just hope both parties learned from this situation how important these issues are and that they need to take care of this stuff NOW and not keep putting it off till later. They now have 2 months, I hope they can work hard and work with one another to work something out NOT at the last minute this time.

As for a downgrade, well, if they can manage to come up with a deal in a couple months to avoid the debt ceiling (and no, we wouldnt default even if we did have a government shutdown, any such claims are 100% false, we bring in enough in taxes to easily cover the relatively small amount we pay in interest on the debt, vs the other parts of the government budget.) then hopefully we can avoid another downgrade, especially if they are able to come up with a good large solid deal to make sure we can make some significant dents into the massive deficit that we currently are dealing with.

When/if we get past that, then hopefully we'll finally have some solid certainty for the economy to be able to move on into the future with. If not, then yeah, it has the potential to be a disaster. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[Card Slinger J]

Originally Posted by jeffbcrandall

You are of course entitled to your opinion, if you dont like the house republicans, thats up to you, however, they did pass the bipartisan bill that the senate came up with. I for one am glad to see that they put their partisan politics aside and agreed to pass it, to at least prevent us from going off the cliff, or at least averting the main problems that would have occured if we had for even a single business day.

It's not that I don't like the House Republicans, it's that I'm fed up with their partisan politics and I'd like to see them be more bipartisan in Congress where they work more for the benefit of the American people (including Middle Class and Poor) instead of their own constituence. But I am glad that they passed a bipartisan bill that was made in the Senate. There was a time when Washington had a good name, we need to get back to those times again.

There's no point in taking the country hostage for something that could of devastated not just our economy in general but for consumer confidence in Wall Street as well when we are slowly trying to get ourselves out of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression, when Unemployment has gone down from 7% to maybe even lower If we work hard to keep creating jobs in this country. Sure we got more challenges ahead but only If we are united as a country, otherwise divided we fall.

[jeffbcrandall]

Originally Posted by Card Slinger J

It's not that I don't like the House Republicans, it's that I'm fed up with their partisan politics and I'd like to see them be more bipartisan in Congress where they work more for the benefit of the American people (including Middle Class and Poor) instead of their own constituence. But I am glad that they passed a bipartisan bill that was made in the Senate. There was a time when Washington had a good name, we need to get back to those times again.

There's no point in taking the country hostage for something that could of devastated not just our economy in general but for consumer confidence in Wall Street as well when we are slowly trying to get ourselves out of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression, when Unemployment has gone down from 7% to maybe even lower If we work hard to keep creating jobs in this country. Sure we got more challenges ahead but only If we are united as a country, otherwise divided we fall.

Well, to be fair, their job as representatives is to vote for what the people that voted them into office want. This goes for either side of the isle both democrats and republicans. Part of the problem is that what both sides believe, often are at odds on many key issues. With the country so split right now, we have a situation where the congress is as split as we have seen it before as well and as a result. If the republicans get voted into office by the people that voted them in, to not raise taxes and to cut government expenditures, then thats what they are going to vote for, because that is what the people that voted them into office wanted. The other side is true for the democrats. If the democrats get voted into office by the people that voted them in, to raise taxes (on the wealthy), and to not cut, or to only cut things like defense, then thats what they are going to vote for, because thats what the people they represent want.

What Im hopeful for, is that both sides will see that no one is going to be able to get 100% of what they want, and compromise is going to have to happen (this applies to both democrats and republicans, as they both have issues giving enough to try to be able to find that middle ground). In the end, we have about 2 months, and all we can do, unfortunately, is sit back and hope that they can work something out, and show that what happenned in the last couple days is more indicative of the future than what we saw before that.

[Undisputed-]

Originally Posted by Card Slinger J

Yep, we averted the Fiscal Cliff but still "kicked the can down the road". But guess what's coming next? Another Credit Rating Downgrade, I'm callin' it!

AA to A here we come...

And people around the world wonder why the United States is now the laughing stock of the advanced world. House Republicans just make me wanna puke especially those douschebags from the Tea Party...

I hope the US gets down graded its balance sheet is absurd. Nothing is ever going to get cut. Everyone's taxes are going up so they can spend more.

Originally Posted by jeffbcrandall

You are of course entitled to your opinion, if you dont like the house republicans, thats up to you, however, they did pass the bipartisan bill that the senate came up with. I for one am glad to see that they put their partisan politics aside and agreed to pass it, to at least prevent us from going off the cliff, or at least averting the main problems that would have occured if we had for even a single business day.

If it's bipartisan then it's pretty much guaranteed to be evil. Nothing fundamentally has changed to avoid the real cliff.

[Random Nerd]

Originally Posted by Undisputed-

I hope the US gets down graded its balance sheet is absurd. Nothing is ever going to get cut. Everyone's taxes are going up so they can spend more.

This is the kind of attitude that leads us to these problems. Cuts will be made, and we can only hope that these are done responsibly in a balanced approach.(meaning having no sacred cows like military, corporate welfare, or safety nets)

Instead of cutting things maybe we should try to reform them. Change a few numbers here and there while maintaining each and every program.

Originally Posted by jeffbcrandall

You are of course entitled to your opinion, if you dont like the house republicans, thats up to you, however, they did pass the bipartisan bill that the senate came up with. I for one am glad to see that they put their partisan politics aside and agreed to pass it, to at least prevent us from going off the cliff, or at least averting the main problems that would have occured if we had for even a single business day.

If it's bipartisan then it's pretty much guaranteed to be evil. Nothing fundamentally has changed to avoid the real cliff.

How is a bipartisan "thing" evil? Are you so far right that even moderates scare you? This just goes to show you how far right some people in this country are. Relative to how far right far right goes the far left people seem moderate lol.

[Vaclav]

Morgan: While I do agree about redundant regulation like you're talking about - its something that should really be its own subcategory. For every deregulation suggestion that fixes a redundancy there's many others that attempt to truly deregulate something.

[Surging Chaos]

Originally Posted by Random Nerd

This is the kind of attitude that leads us to these problems. Cuts will be made, and we can only hope that these are done responsibly in a balanced approach.(meaning having no sacred cows like military, corporate welfare, or safety nets)

We just had a "deal" that basically threw the Budget Control Act from the last debt ceiling standoff out the window. If both parties can't agree to spending cuts now (especially when we just had an election), then they'll never cut spending. As long as interest rates remain at ultra-low rates and foreigners continue to buy treasuries, there will be no incentive from Congress or Obama to cut spending.

Instead of cutting things maybe we should try to reform them. Change a few numbers here and there while maintaining each and every program.

We're at a point where we basically have to slash government spending from all facets. The warfare and the welfare state have to come to an end, or otherwise the dollar will come to an end.

[Yorutenchi]

thats a bit extreme. I do understand we need to make a turning point sooner rather than later but we are in no immediate danger. All of the things you and all other major conservative posters on the forum are talking about is a default several years away.

Again I agree we cannot continue the way we are right now for the next decade. But soon as the economy picks up and fewer and fewer people are on these welfare progras then we can get on a better track.

Honestly the best way to fix the budget is to get America off the welfare state. Best way to do that is to help the lower income individuals get training and jobs that will allow them to make enough money to not need government assistance. Also the Social security argument doesn't make any sense at all. Its decades away AND its possible it may balance ITSELF out without any help from congress at all.

why the social security "crisis" SEEMS to be so bad is because for the first time ever there are a higher percentage of retired social security recievers. Here are the causes of this perfect storm of phantom crisis.

1) Baby boomers happened. so an extreme and abrupt increase of babies born in a generation with the likes we've never recorded in America.

2) the baby boomers are the first generation to EVER consider not having children and also birth control became a common thing. So they had fewer children than previous generations. This caused a massive surge of a specific generation of people. A bulge if you will in the population age curve.

3) Medical advances makes it much easier for them to live on average 20 years longer than the generations of days past. So even the parents of some baby boomers have stuck around as they would be our 90 year olds. And its expected that several of our baby boomers will last within their ripe years.

4) A drop in the economy causing a shortage as well as tons of other domino effects that lead into deficite spending and debt. So for the first time ever we have a large elderly population with fewer and fewer young working folk and then we hit a major recession.

These 4 things have come together to cause a phantom crisis for Social security. Several of them will work themselves out.

They will start to die off in this decade between 2010 and 2020. Several will have died by the year 2030 and I would estimate that by 2040 there will be none left. so this magical mysterious bulge in the age curve will be gone and no more. thus saving us milions and millions in the program.

Secondly the economy will get better. It always does. Its not on the verge of default but is steadily working its way forward. When the ecnomy gets back on track then more money will come in and can easily pay for it.

Lastly other government spending will HOPEFULLY elapse such as the wars winding down. Also they should save a few hundred million dollars against the war on drugs by legalization of marijuana(which by itself is already showing its capabilities of being a multi million dollar industry generating tens of thousands in revenue in just a few states alone already)

When this comes to pass then social security will be fine way before it ever defaults. And if it still isn't then the smallest of changes can fix it.

[Random Nerd]

Originally Posted by Surging Chaos

We just had a "deal" that basically threw the Budget Control Act from the last debt ceiling standoff out the window. If both parties can't agree to spending cuts now (especially when we just had an election), then they'll never cut spending. As long as interest rates remain at ultra-low rates and foreigners continue to buy treasuries, there will be no incentive from Congress or Obama to cut spending.

We're at a point where we basically have to slash government spending from all facets. The warfare and the welfare state have to come to an end, or otherwise the dollar will come to an end.

as per wiki

In 2010, the Federal government of the USA spent an average of $11,041 per citizen (per capita)... Of the 20 largest economies, only six spent less per citizen: South Korea ($4557), Brazil ($2813), Russia ($2458), China ($1010), and India ($226). Of the 13 that spent more, Norway and Sweden top the list with per citizen spending of $40908 and $26760 respectively.

It is not just our spending that is the problem. we actually generate less revenue than most of the top 20 economies in the world. Another thing that you don't see is the fact that through tax breaks and over ways we actually spend around 60% more on corporate welfare than social safety nets.

As a matter of fact "corporate welfare" and tax loopholes has our effective tax rate on average for corporations just a hair above 12%. Compare this to other developed countries which average between 20% and 30%.

Our spending is actually mostly on par now that the wars have ended. We just need to get rid of the excesses still left from that period and move forward.

As per the deficit how fast do we actually have to pay it off? If we cut a few things we could pay it of over a long period of time since we are really not really in the red as far as year to year spending goes. A number I have seen puts the last two wars at around 11-12trillion. Then the bush tax cuts put up around 4-5trillion. That might as well be our whole entire deficit. The rest that left came from the loss of tax dollars, and the extensive need of social safety nets by more people as people were struggling. Whats to say that this won't somewhat reverse as our economy recovers?

[jeffbcrandall]

Originally Posted by Random Nerd

It is not just our spending that is the problem. we actually generate less revenue than most of the top 20 economies in the world. Another thing that you don't see is the fact that through tax breaks and over ways we actually spend around 60% more on corporate welfare than social safety nets.

As a matter of fact "corporate welfare" and tax loopholes has our effective tax rate on average for corporations just a hair above 12%. Compare this to other developed countries which average between 20% and 30%.

As per the deficit how fast do we actually have to pay it off? If we cut a few things we could pay it of over a long period of time since we are really not really in the red as far as year to year spending goes. A number I have seen puts the last two wars at around 11-12trillion. Then the bush tax cuts put up around 4-5trillion. That might as well be our whole entire deficit. The rest that left came from the loss of tax dollars, and the extensive need of social safety nets by more people as people were struggling. Whats to say that this won't somewhat reverse as our economy recovers?

I just had a few questions about your numbers and the terms you were using.

Can you define "Social Safety Nets" in detail so we know more specifically what you are referring to and we can verify the information.

Can you define "Corporate Welfare" and thusly what sorts of ways in which our current system allows them to pay such low rates, such as the rates in the example you gave?


Can you provide a link or reference from an official source that explains the costs of the war, and relatedly the YEARLY costs of the war to which allowed you to get to the number you gave?

The Bush tax cuts (including the ones we just made permanant for anyone making less than $400k/year) number seems correct based upon other information Ive seen, though one has to wonder what our current economy would look like if they were all taken away, if it stifled our economy, then that would reduce the money the government was able to take in, in taxes, which could turn into a net negative depending upon. I know people seemed pretty freaked out at those cuts expiring.

I agree that if the economy gets rolling again, then that will help on the revenue side, and reduce costs on things like welfare and unemployment.

Anyhow, if you could answer the above questions I would appreciate it, as it would give some common basis and understanding for us to be able to discuss the topic further .

[Yorutenchi]

Social saftey nets
-Welfare
-Unemployment
-Food stamps
-medicaide

non-related saftey nets
-Social Security
-Medicare

Corporate Welfare is subsidies from the government to major corporations. The majority of which go to large oil companies. Some smaller corporate welfare programs exist but are a small fraction.


This is the wiki link to the numbers for total cost of over seas wars