[M10] Finding Print Runs

Avadose · 07-16-2009, 10:10 AM

As my wife and I are about to open a box together for the first time, and I being a statistician and she being as weird as me (just in other ways), we decided that we would try analyzing the common print runs when we open our box.

The idea for my finding print runs is as follows.

If two cards are next to each other in a run, then they would more often be in the same pack. Hence, across many many packs those cards would be more highly "correlated" then cards that are in different runs (rock, paper, scissors) or cards that are not next to each other in the run. (This is based entirely on what I have read about people finding out print runs)

Hence I am planning to write a program to attempt to find these "correlation" chains which, I believe, should lead to "print runs".

The interesting thing about this method of finding print runs is that order in which I get packs or open them does not matter; they do not need to be from the same box or even the same shipment.

Hence my request, if there is interest, is to have people tell me which commons they have in packs as they open them (not including foils) so that way I have more information to try and find the runs. Then I would post my findings here on the site.

(Aside: I have played a total of 4 games for DCI ranking in my life, didn't much care for the experience, and therefore my reason is not to "win" at drafts; my reason for doing this is just to see if it is possible to do so because the mathematics of it interests me).

pandafarmer · 07-16-2009, 10:15 AM

There are some Youtube videos that may help you in your quest, I know there was one guy who posted a "I cracked the code" type of thing on there. But really, anyone who knows a print run could tell you this so many people just poo-poo'd him.

android · 07-16-2009, 11:31 AM

If you want to know rare print runs, you also need to log the sequence in which you open your packs out of the box. I'm not sure if the order would go down each stack or across each layer but if you keep all the cards logged with references to which pack they belonged to, you could find rare orders based off which pack led to which other pack (based on commons/uncommons). It's never going to be an exact science but you should be able to predict with a relatively high success rate.

The goal would either be to open the first pack and then know exactly which pack (if any) in the box has the rare you want to open or to simply know which card was drafted by the person before you. I know people do this already and it seems pretty shifty.

KPDaly16 · 07-16-2009, 05:17 PM

This would be handy to have as an avid Limited player, not that I think it will make a notable difference in my draft strategy. I'll PM you my common runs after I open my box.

Avadose · 07-16-2009, 05:20 PM

Thank you

Nameskaz · 07-16-2009, 05:21 PM

Certainly an interesting idea. Good luck to your sir. I'll be happy to see the outcome of this.

CX316 · 07-16-2009, 09:05 PM

judging from my booster box, the common runs might be easy enough to work out but don't even TRY to work out the rare runs. I got 2-ofs of 3 different rares (Twincast, Ball Lightning and the U/B Dual) which I've never had happen in a box before.

winglerw28 · 07-16-2009, 11:40 PM

Two guys at my store opened the exact same rares in two jap m10 boxes, minus a foil ball lightning. I also noticed mythics are more common to see, as I got a ton in my box.

KPDaly16 · 07-17-2009, 12:24 AM

I also noticed a VERY high rate of Mythics at the prerelease. I wonder if they changed the print rate without telling anyone.

CX316 · 07-17-2009, 01:45 AM

I got 5 in my box, which is a 1 in 7 ratio just like it's meant to be

jeffbcrandall · 07-17-2009, 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KPDaly16

I also noticed a VERY high rate of Mythics at the prerelease. I wonder if they changed the print rate without telling anyone.

As wizards has said, mythics would be 1 in 8 packs or approx 4.5 per box on a true average basis. Out of 34 boxes I have openned thus far Ive openned the 4.5 average per box plus about 5 extra, so Im a little above the curve at the moment, but thats out of 34 boxes, so no, mythics are still the usual 1 in 8 packs that they always have been.

Ram-Gang · 07-17-2009, 04:20 AM

A man by the name of Ross Edwards was written an excellent book called "The Card Wizards Black Book""The Card Wizards Black Book" about this very subject. He has cracked 10ths & Shards run. Small blocks tend to be uneven & hence unmappable although he is trying to find the rare distribution. He has a Youtube channel at: http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=...rd&view=videos.

The packs are put down in a pattern going from left-right, left-right like I show in the excel sheet. There is one row in each box that is always shifted up or down from where it is supposed to be.

Ram-Gang · 07-17-2009, 04:52 AM

He has the Coldsnap print map up for free at: http://www.completechampion.com/
I've attached it for you to save you the trouble of waiting for the email

Cordio · 07-17-2009, 07:14 AM

^
I'm just waiting for him to release M10 already! xD

Side note though the OP was trying to deduce COMMON print runs if I'm reading this right, so much harder to do!

android · 07-17-2009, 08:00 AM

I will add, with regard to M10, that distribution of rares/mythics seems to be less random than previous sets. At our table for sealed, three of us opened Djinn of Wishes, two of us had the new Time Walk (although one was foil) and two of us had Ajani. I can't really say how many other multiples there were for rares/mythics, but this certainly supports the less random distribution model.

I work for a the print production branch of a large company and although we don't produce playing cards or other randomized card stock items, we do collate. The process used for ccgs/sports cards (randomized) and things such as recipe cards (not randomezed) are totally different. For both, they print full sheets, sometimes having a variety imposed, sometimes having full sheets of a single item. This depends on volume. Despite the large volume Magic cards are printed in, I'm under the impression they still impose a variety. When the sheets come off the press and dry, they are cut down into stacks all containing the same items. They are likely fed through the die cutter prior to being collated. The feeding of the collating machine must follow a pretty strict process to ensure the cards are evenly distributed. These days, there is likely a program that can be adjusted to different random/non-random settings. If they wanted, they could be very precise in how packs were built and you would get boxes that were almost identical. I tend to think that they play with these settings to get a more random distribution which results in duplicate rares/mythics as often as it results in a truly random set of cards.

07-16-2009, 10:10 AM	#1
Avadose Common Mage Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 32	[M10] Finding Print Runs As my wife and I are about to open a box together for the first time, and I being a statistician and she being as weird as me (just in other ways), we decided that we would try analyzing the common print runs when we open our box. The idea for my finding print runs is as follows. If two cards are next to each other in a run, then they would more often be in the same pack. Hence, across many many packs those cards would be more highly "correlated" then cards that are in different runs (rock, paper, scissors) or cards that are not next to each other in the run. (This is based entirely on what I have read about people finding out print runs) Hence I am planning to write a program to attempt to find these "correlation" chains which, I believe, should lead to "print runs". The interesting thing about this method of finding print runs is that order in which I get packs or open them does not matter; they do not need to be from the same box or even the same shipment. Hence my request, if there is interest, is to have people tell me which commons they have in packs as they open them (not including foils) so that way I have more information to try and find the runs. Then I would post my findings here on the site. (Aside: I have played a total of 4 games for DCI ranking in my life, didn't much care for the experience, and therefore my reason is not to "win" at drafts; my reason for doing this is just to see if it is possible to do so because the mathematics of it interests me).
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07-16-2009, 10:15 AM	#2
pandafarmer Just pootin' Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Twin Cities Posts: 12,856	There are some Youtube videos that may help you in your quest, I know there was one guy who posted a "I cracked the code" type of thing on there. But really, anyone who knows a print run could tell you this so many people just poo-poo'd him. __________________ www.mtgotraders.com - Enter Code PANDAPAYPAL for 8% off! www.CapeFearGames.com - Enter Code PANDA for 5% off! Limit of 1 coupon per order
0

07-16-2009, 05:17 PM	#4
KPDaly16 404: Title Not Found Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: CT Posts: 5,360	This would be handy to have as an avid Limited player, not that I think it will make a notable difference in my draft strategy. I'll PM you my common runs after I open my box. __________________ DCI Level 2 Judge
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07-17-2009, 12:24 AM	#9
KPDaly16 404: Title Not Found Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: CT Posts: 5,360	I also noticed a VERY high rate of Mythics at the prerelease. I wonder if they changed the print rate without telling anyone. __________________ DCI Level 2 Judge
0

07-16-2009, 11:31 AM	#3
android Experienced Mage Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 132	If you want to know rare print runs, you also need to log the sequence in which you open your packs out of the box. I'm not sure if the order would go down each stack or across each layer but if you keep all the cards logged with references to which pack they belonged to, you could find rare orders based off which pack led to which other pack (based on commons/uncommons). It's never going to be an exact science but you should be able to predict with a relatively high success rate. The goal would either be to open the first pack and then know exactly which pack (if any) in the box has the rare you want to open or to simply know which card was drafted by the person before you. I know people do this already and it seems pretty shifty.
0

07-16-2009, 05:20 PM	#5
Avadose Common Mage Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 32	Thank you
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07-16-2009, 11:40 PM	#8
winglerw28 Archmage Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Brook Park, OH Posts: 779	Two guys at my store opened the exact same rares in two jap m10 boxes, minus a foil ball lightning. I also noticed mythics are more common to see, as I got a ton in my box.
0

07-17-2009, 07:14 AM	#14
Cordio Ascended Mage Join Date: May 2009 Location: B'ham Alabama..... Ugh Posts: 457	^ I'm just waiting for him to release M10 already! xD Side note though the OP was trying to deduce COMMON print runs if I'm reading this right, so much harder to do!
0

07-17-2009, 08:00 AM	#15
android Experienced Mage Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 132	I will add, with regard to M10, that distribution of rares/mythics seems to be less random than previous sets. At our table for sealed, three of us opened Djinn of Wishes, two of us had the new Time Walk (although one was foil) and two of us had Ajani. I can't really say how many other multiples there were for rares/mythics, but this certainly supports the less random distribution model. I work for a the print production branch of a large company and although we don't produce playing cards or other randomized card stock items, we do collate. The process used for ccgs/sports cards (randomized) and things such as recipe cards (not randomezed) are totally different. For both, they print full sheets, sometimes having a variety imposed, sometimes having full sheets of a single item. This depends on volume. Despite the large volume Magic cards are printed in, I'm under the impression they still impose a variety. When the sheets come off the press and dry, they are cut down into stacks all containing the same items. They are likely fed through the die cutter prior to being collated. The feeding of the collating machine must follow a pretty strict process to ensure the cards are evenly distributed. These days, there is likely a program that can be adjusted to different random/non-random settings. If they wanted, they could be very precise in how packs were built and you would get boxes that were almost identical. I tend to think that they play with these settings to get a more random distribution which results in duplicate rares/mythics as often as it results in a truly random set of cards.
0

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