there has been a constant debate between these two cantrips, as to which one is better. the power level between the two cards are very close, yet each of them see different amount of plays in its format.
i remembered back in ts-lorwyn then shard standard, ponder was not a playable cantrip. it was clearly good, but not good enough to be competitive. Even in shard-m10-zendikar standard, ponder did not see huge amount of plays except in combo decks who need to filter to get their combo pieces together. (polymorph, pyromancer ascension, turboland)
then in M11, preordain replaces ponder. at first, many people thought ponder is a better card because seeing that 3rd card and to shuffle the library is pretty huge. but now, preordain has been justified to be the major cantrip in all blue decks. if you're playing blue but not playing preordain, you're doing something wrong.
i like being able to look at the top three and shuffle if needed. if all are lands (and i'm not in the need of land), i can shuffle and hopefully get something else.
i know preordain does it nearly the same but being able to shuffle the library helps me out.
I like them both, but if I had to pick I'd go with Preordain. I'd rather have the option to put cards I don't need at the bottom of my library, rather than shuffling and possibly still having cards I don't need on top of my library.
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In combo decks, as you said, I like ponder as you usually only care about getting one or 2 specific cards, and ponder digs you 1 card deeper.
In noncombo decks, I'm a fan of Preordain, because it does a better job of smoothing out your draws. It eliminates the problem of getting really awkward tops with ponder. For example, if you keep a land light hand with a ponder and hit 2 spells and 1 land you're in a predicament. Not so much with preordain.
I think it pretty much comes down to what the deck one is playing is trying to accomplish.
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People just never understand how miserable it is to ponder for a land, see a land and two blanks in the top 3. Now if you take the land you effectively miss your next to draw steps.
Preordain is miles ahead as a card selection tool and setting up draws for value. Ponder is mostly a combo enabler.
Totally depends on the context. If you're playing with Brainstorm effects in Legacy, then Ponder is going to be way better because it lets you shuffle. In current Standard, Preordain is probably better.
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Totally depends on the context. If you're playing with Brainstorm effects in Legacy, then Ponder is going to be way better because it lets you shuffle. In current Standard, Preordain is probably better.
the thing is, you can also play preordain kick the top 2 cards to the bottom which you put bak with bstorm. so it almost does pretty much the same thing.
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Shards was the time of Turn-1-tapland. Scars has brought back turn 1-2 plays for multicolor decks. This makes preordain playable, while ponder wasn't during it's time.
Also, Preordain lets you keep two good cards, ship two bad cards, or keep and ship one. With Ponder, if you wanted that one good card, you also had to draw the bad cards unless you have a shuffle effect.
Shards was the time of Turn-1-tapland. Scars has brought back turn 1-2 plays for multicolor decks. This makes preordain playable, while ponder wasn't during it's time.
Also, Preordain lets you keep two good cards, ship two bad cards, or keep and ship one. With Ponder, if you wanted that one good card, you also had to draw the bad cards unless you have a shuffle effect.
You shouldn't be playing Preordain turn one unless you kept a very bad hand and NEED to find a land or leak.
Otherwise, Preordain is better to smooth out draws, while Ponder is better to dig deep and combo out.
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Preordain is just hands down better. Late game most of your draws will be essentially dead. If you ponder and there are two dead cards on top of your library and one card you want, you have to set yourself up for two dead turns. Preordain gives you no dead turns if the top two were dead and the third was good and one dead turn if the good card was in the top two. In many ways preordain actually resembles a draw 2 or draw 3 spell late game.
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I have done a little statistics, and I've come to a solution which absolutely decides, which one is better: both.
If there is less than 20 cards you are okay with to draw, Ponder is better than Preordain, because it looks at four cards max instead of Preordain's three cards max and as such it's more probable to draw what you want.
If there is more than 25 cards you are okay with to draw, Preordain is better than Ponder, because there already is a very high chance that you will draw what you want, and Preordain lets you filter the unwanted cards to the bottom.
If there is between 20 and 25 cards you are okay with to draw, they both are quite close to equally good.
This isn't just a math problem. No one ever talks about what you do with Ponder when it's 1 good and 2 bad cards on top. It's absolutely miserable. Ponder is a combo piece for digging. Preordain is a equal parts card quality with digging.
Preordain lets you set up draws for value. You can't keep the 1 good card and shuffle the 2 bad cards with ponder. Ponder is not great in a control deck because you are not going for a combo or just digging for a 1 outer most of the time. You are trying to setup long term value and gain advantage by having higher card quality than your opponent over the course of the game.
I voted Ponder. I play Ponder over Preordain in every deck that I run blue cantrips in. It digs deeper and provides a shuffle effect. It seems that everyone agrees it's better in combo, I also think it's much better in any deck with Counterbalance and in any deck where you're using cantrips to cheat on land.
EDIT: I do play more Preordains in Vintage GAT and Doomsday, but that's because the better ones like Brainstorm and Ponder are restricted.
Ponder digs 3, Preordain digs 2 before you draw. You'll get a better draw off the ponder.
Finding 2 dead cards on top of your library with Ponder isn't a big deal, just pop a fetch or shuffle if you don't really need any of them. No difference between that and Preordain scrying away them both before drawing. There were people who thought [card]serum visions[/cad] was better than ponder. The deeper something can dig, the better it is.
Fact or Fiction is also restricted in Vintage, and Jace2 isn't. There is a reason for Fact or Fiction being restricted (in fact, there could be a reason for both Jace2 and Preordain too, but apparently they have yet to see the restrictionhammer), but it doesn't make Jace2 worse than Fact or Fiction in every situation in every format ever. Learn to accept that.
This would be an excellent analogy if if Jace2 and Fact or Fiction were both 3U instant-speed card draw, or were both 2UU planeswalkers with extremely similar abilites. They're not, so it isn't though.
Vintage is a separate entity from other formats, considered alone, it is not a good rubric for a card's utility. Plenty of things that are restricted in Vintage are legal in their other formats. This is because of interactions with powerful cards in vintage, not because something like Ponder is a format breaking behemoth.
I really think it's a wash between the two, which is why Scry tipped the scale for me. They're different, and both have instances of superiority. Just depends on how you want to play.
they both have times when they are good, as people pointed out. For me, Preordain becomes more useful more often. If you have a bad topdeck with ponder with one card you need, then you're stuck two turns without good draws, or you shuffle everything away. Preordain's flexibility at actually being able to weed out the bad and keep the good makes it just that more versatile and hence desirable for me. This situation doesn't come up a lot, but it comes up enough where I'd want the latter over the former.
Vintage is a separate entity from other formats, considered alone, it is not a good rubric for a card's utility. Plenty of things that are restricted in Vintage are legal in their other formats. This is because of interactions with powerful cards in vintage, not because something like Ponder is a format breaking behemoth.
I really think it's a wash between the two, which is why Scry tipped the scale for me. They're different, and both have instances of superiority. Just depends on how you want to play.
most good decks also play with fetchlands, especially ones with brainstorm and ponder. ponder also lets you shuffle and draw. if you crack a fetchland with preordain, those cards might go back near the top. so ponder is in fact, better again.
most good decks also play with fetchlands, especially ones with brainstorm and ponder. ponder also lets you shuffle and draw. if you crack a fetchland with preordain, those cards might go back near the top. so ponder is in fact, better again.
Most control decks run 2-3 fetches. That is all. At least in standard.
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most good decks also play with fetchlands, especially ones with brainstorm and ponder. ponder also lets you shuffle and draw. if you crack a fetchland with preordain, those cards might go back near the top. so ponder is in fact, better again.
If you shuffle away unneeded cards with ponder, those cards might go back near the top immediately. So once again, ponder and preordain are better or worse than each other in some hypothetical instances.
Don't get me wrong, I see the utility of Ponder and have some decks that run it over Preordain. I think it is an issue of how you want your deck to play, and not a significant power upgrade like running Mana Drain over Counterspell.
While Preordain does dig you 3 deep in theory, that third card is an unknown. Ponder lets you actually see that third card and so it's better for digging.
Conversely, Ponder gives you a lot less control if the top 3 are bad; shuffling is a lot like playing the lotto and rearrangement only controls *when* you draw those cards.
Therefore, Preordain is better for filtering, Ponder is for digging, so Preordain is better for control, and Ponder for decks which want to go off with a certain card as soon as possible (generally combo).
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i remembered back in ts-lorwyn then shard standard, ponder was not a playable cantrip. it was clearly good, but not good enough to be competitive. Even in shard-m10-zendikar standard, ponder did not see huge amount of plays except in combo decks who need to filter to get their combo pieces together. (polymorph, pyromancer ascension, turboland)
then in M11, preordain replaces ponder. at first, many people thought ponder is a better card because seeing that 3rd card and to shuffle the library is pretty huge. but now, preordain has been justified to be the major cantrip in all blue decks. if you're playing blue but not playing preordain, you're doing something wrong.
http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/worlds10/decks/extended
here are some of the extended decklists at world, where both ponder and preordain are legal. yet, preordain shows up more than ponder does.
canadian threshold expert Ben Wienburg also thinks preordain is a better cantrip thus he plays 4 copies of preordains rather than ponders.
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=35426
so which one do you think it's better than another?
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i like being able to look at the top three and shuffle if needed. if all are lands (and i'm not in the need of land), i can shuffle and hopefully get something else.
i know preordain does it nearly the same but being able to shuffle the library helps me out.
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In noncombo decks, I'm a fan of Preordain, because it does a better job of smoothing out your draws. It eliminates the problem of getting really awkward tops with ponder. For example, if you keep a land light hand with a ponder and hit 2 spells and 1 land you're in a predicament. Not so much with preordain.
I think it pretty much comes down to what the deck one is playing is trying to accomplish.
Preordain actually gets rid of the cards you don't want.
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Preordain is miles ahead as a card selection tool and setting up draws for value. Ponder is mostly a combo enabler.
the thing is, you can also play preordain kick the top 2 cards to the bottom which you put bak with bstorm. so it almost does pretty much the same thing.
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Also, Preordain lets you keep two good cards, ship two bad cards, or keep and ship one. With Ponder, if you wanted that one good card, you also had to draw the bad cards unless you have a shuffle effect.
You shouldn't be playing Preordain turn one unless you kept a very bad hand and NEED to find a land or leak.
Otherwise, Preordain is better to smooth out draws, while Ponder is better to dig deep and combo out.
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Do you need to dig for cards, like combo decks or aggro control decks? Then play Ponder.
Need card quality for your control deck? Then play Preordain.
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This isn't just a math problem. No one ever talks about what you do with Ponder when it's 1 good and 2 bad cards on top. It's absolutely miserable. Ponder is a combo piece for digging. Preordain is a equal parts card quality with digging.
Preordain lets you set up draws for value. You can't keep the 1 good card and shuffle the 2 bad cards with ponder. Ponder is not great in a control deck because you are not going for a combo or just digging for a 1 outer most of the time. You are trying to setup long term value and gain advantage by having higher card quality than your opponent over the course of the game.
EDIT: I do play more Preordains in Vintage GAT and Doomsday, but that's because the better ones like Brainstorm and Ponder are restricted.
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Modern
RWGBurnGWR
GUInfectUG
GRTronRG
UWGifts TronWU
URBGrixis DelverBRU
RGWZooWGR
Legacy
BUWTinFinsWUB
UROmniTellRU
BURTESRUB
GElves!G
GBPSIBG
RGBelcherGR
UBRGWDredgeWGRBU
UBAffinityBU
RBurnR
Vintage
UBGDoomsdayGBU
0Martello Shops0
GElves!G
UBTPSBU
UBelcherU
0Dredge0
Finding 2 dead cards on top of your library with Ponder isn't a big deal, just pop a fetch or shuffle if you don't really need any of them. No difference between that and Preordain scrying away them both before drawing. There were people who thought [card]serum visions[/cad] was better than ponder. The deeper something can dig, the better it is.
it's better. learn to accept that.
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This would be an excellent analogy if if Jace2 and Fact or Fiction were both 3U instant-speed card draw, or were both 2UU planeswalkers with extremely similar abilites. They're not, so it isn't though.
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Modern
RWGBurnGWR
GUInfectUG
GRTronRG
UWGifts TronWU
URBGrixis DelverBRU
RGWZooWGR
Legacy
BUWTinFinsWUB
UROmniTellRU
BURTESRUB
GElves!G
GBPSIBG
RGBelcherGR
UBRGWDredgeWGRBU
UBAffinityBU
RBurnR
Vintage
UBGDoomsdayGBU
0Martello Shops0
GElves!G
UBTPSBU
UBelcherU
0Dredge0
Vintage is a separate entity from other formats, considered alone, it is not a good rubric for a card's utility. Plenty of things that are restricted in Vintage are legal in their other formats. This is because of interactions with powerful cards in vintage, not because something like Ponder is a format breaking behemoth.
I really think it's a wash between the two, which is why Scry tipped the scale for me. They're different, and both have instances of superiority. Just depends on how you want to play.
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most good decks also play with fetchlands, especially ones with brainstorm and ponder. ponder also lets you shuffle and draw. if you crack a fetchland with preordain, those cards might go back near the top. so ponder is in fact, better again.
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G Titania - 75%
W SRAM - Welcome to the cheeri0s jam 95%
U Teferi - stax 100%
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B Gonti - 50% valuetown
Most control decks run 2-3 fetches. That is all. At least in standard.
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If you shuffle away unneeded cards with ponder, those cards might go back near the top immediately. So once again, ponder and preordain are better or worse than each other in some hypothetical instances.
Don't get me wrong, I see the utility of Ponder and have some decks that run it over Preordain. I think it is an issue of how you want your deck to play, and not a significant power upgrade like running Mana Drain over Counterspell.
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but if forced to pick on I go with ponder, extra dig > them smoother draws.
Conversely, Ponder gives you a lot less control if the top 3 are bad; shuffling is a lot like playing the lotto and rearrangement only controls *when* you draw those cards.
Therefore, Preordain is better for filtering, Ponder is for digging, so Preordain is better for control, and Ponder for decks which want to go off with a certain card as soon as possible (generally combo).
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