Special thanks goes to XiahouMao of www.heroesofivalice.com for being an -awesome- encyclopedia of RTK knowledge, and helping me out with a few things for this game.
Standard mafia rules are in effect, with the following addons, mostly lifted from Azrael.
1. Do -not- talk about this game with -anyone-. anyone. Players, dead players, bystanders, your mom, whatever. The only exception is, of course, if your role specifies it.
2. No editing. Threat of modkill. Blah blah blah.
3. Posting in large text is fine. Using images is also allowed, so long as forum rules would not prohibit them.
4. Be careful about paraphrasing your role PMs. And whatever you do, don’t quote them.
5. Any role that can converse during the night, can converse during the day.
6. None of the above rules apply if correspondence from me directly overrides them.
7. YOU CANNOT VOTE FOR THE MOD. CANNOT CANNOT CANNOT CANNOT. Also can’t.
8. As a service from the mod, once per game, each player gets the chance to request an official vote count. Please type, in bold, the words “Vote Count”, and you will have used your vote count for the game. No votes from the time of the official request until the time of my count are valid. Normal vote counts will still happen at regular intervals, of course.
9. My references are an abridged version of the Moss Roberts translation, www.threekingdoms.com, and, the Romance of the Three Kingdoms video game series. Because of this, all translations will be in Pinyin, as I hate Wade-Giles so much.
Living: 3/23
4. Fadeblue
19. Kenji
Not so living:
18. Machin Shin (Ding Yuan, Shu Ally) (Impaled night 1)link
22. Hvirfilvindr (Shi Guangyan, Shu Mystic/Investigator) (Throat cut Night 1)link
9. creampuffeater (Jiang Wei, Wei Outcast) (Banished Day 1)link
12. HAWKEYE7 (Liu Shan, Shu Successor) (assassinated Night 2)link
16. CropCircles (Sima Yi, Wei Plotter)(wound-through-the-torso, Night 2)link
6. Ged (Huang Hao, Shu Coward) (dissapearr'd, day 2) link
15. Hunted Charlie (Sun Ce, Wu Successor) (Decapitate, Night 3)link
14. Crippled_Fist (Sun Quan, Wu Successor) (Banished, Day 3)
10. matjoeman (Jian Yong, Shu Scholar)
20. Chamber (Sun Jian, Wu Emperor)
8. swinkee (Lu Bu, Neutral Killer)
3. carrion pigeons (Mi Heng, Shu Nuisance)
23. Jobie (Diao Chan, Neutral Seductress)
21. Xyre (Zhuge Liang, Shu Strategist)
2. Cyan (Dong Zhuo, Neutral Warlord)
17. Abandon Hope (Ma Su, Shu Student)
11. loran16 (Liu Bei, Shu Emperor)
1. Azrael (Jia Xu, Wei Mystic)
7. Arimnaes (Hua Tuo, Shu Medic)
13. KeeperEUSC (Sun Qian, Shu Scholar
5. RafaelK (Cao Cao, Wei Emperor)
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Here begins our tale. The empire, long divided, must unite, long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.
Since the ancient times the forces and life and death have been guarded by two eternal spirits: the Southern Mystic of life, and the Northern Mystic of Death. These two were the most playful bunch, and given their great powers over the forces of the heavens, oftentimes decide to use their spiritual powers to amuse themselves. Today, they have brought some of the most famed personages from the Three Kingdoms period and brought them together to play a game for their own amusement.
The land was an immense peach garden as far as the eye can see, with the trees in full blossom. The southern mystic spoke.
“We have gathered you here today to play a game. You all have fought hard in life, in death, you will now find much reprieve in life. Most of you are divided into three kingdoms. The kingdom of Wei, the most intelligent and strong of them all. The forces of Wu, the strong diplomats and resourceful warriors. And the kingdom of Shu, beloved by the people and possessing of true virtue. In addition, some of you display no affinilation to any of these kingdoms…”
Alas, most of you have forgotten a good deal of your memories from your life, but you resolve to play on. You all know death, and all are wise enough not to trifle with forces this powerful.
The Wei kingdom are poised to assassinate people at night, while the Wu and Shu kingdoms form a tenuous alliance to combat them. Who knows where the others stand..
And thusly the greatest warriors are off to play the peculiar game developed by the mystics. The Northern Mystic describes it in only one word, foreign to all of you: “Mafia”.
Night 0:
Night 0 is a fully normal night. The deadline for night choices is noon, pacific standard time, Tuesday, February 21st. If I get all choices in before that, we can start sooner. All confirms are to be by PM: no posts in this thread until day.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
An (ooc) message from Loran, before the game startd:
Quote from Loran »
Fayul, I will be out from Friday till Monday and probably be unable to post. If Selected by you, please auto confirm me and inform the players of my inability to post this weekend. Thanks a lot even if i dont get picked.
Im sure(even if im not in it) itll be a damn good game.
role PM's are going out as we speak, so hang tight.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Less than 24 hours until deadline, and I don't have all nightchoices in yet. god you people think slow.
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Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
After the mystics explain the game to you, the Southern mystic notes that he has prepared quarters for you, as well as equipment for some of the more skilled me to go to work. The warriors all attended to their business at night, and, when dawn broke, the northern mystic gather them all into the central area once more. He speaks.
“The more astute among you will notice that our numbers are a bit lighter today.” He holds up a mirror, which shows the image of a dead person lying on the ground. He has a gaping cut in his stomach, and, well, you can postulate the rest from there. “This is Ding Yuan (Machin Shin), trusted ally to the kingdom of Shu. Not really a pretty sight, hmm. Oh, and there’s one more.” The mirror slowly changes, and you see another image: some sort of altar, with a headless body lying on it. He seems to have been taken out by a very clean cut, not like the sheer force that was used to impale Ding Yuan. “This man’s name is Shi Guangyan (Hvirfilvindr). As you might be able to guess from the surroundings, he was a rather talented mystic, and he of course worked for Shu. He seems to have set up a divination…he may have been able to determine the true allegiance of one here. That may have been useful.
Right then. There are 21 of you present, so please report back to me when 11 of you can reach a consensus on who to banish today. Good luck.”
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
OOC, Who are these people? I dont see their SNs anywhere? Who actually died and who was which character?
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Mafia MVP Harry Potter Mafia!
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Lord, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, the wisdom to know the difference, and a ****ing chainsaw.
Okay, I've been thinking about this, and I think we ought to claim our nation. Normally, I'm not a fan of mass claiming, but since we know that Wei is the mafia, it should narrow down a lot of possibilities for the scum.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
As is always mentioned, two deaths typically indicates Mafia + SK. We can reasonably guess there were no other kill targets last night, as 3 kills a night is excessive. So why Hvir and Machin? My guess is that Hvir is the mafia kill and Machin is the SK kill, based on my estimation of player reputations. That's just a guess, though, and I've never played with (or read any games with) Machin before so I don't know what his player image is.
But 2 kills already by (presuming that was not a Vig misfire) is already a bit of pressure from the beginning. And I'm definitely not happy with one of the kills that occured... *sigh* That definitely sucks for me.
EWP: I would agree with fade's estimation; Mafia and SK kills for last night is very good. Given it appears definitively that there are "non-aligned" characters in the game, the presence of an SK is very likely. The method of kills though is puzzling. Machin's was brute force, which doesn't immediately suggest an SK (could it have been a Vig misfire?); but Hvirfilvindr's method could definitely have been the work of one. Either that, or a Mafia assassination (based on my PM, I would believe that his kill was definitely Mafia).
Eh well, if Puzzle had been in the game, I would have done a not-so-random vote for him (just to keep up the adversarial standing between us). Otherwise, I'll refrain from any kind of vote for the time being. But, it's good to see the game started.
Hmm, I didn't even notice the difference in kill methods. You may be right that I have the two switched; I was merely basing my guess on speculation about the selection of targets.
1) What do you mean by "Mafia and SK kills for last night is very good"?
2) Why are you semi-claiming already?
In mi opinion, we ought to try as hard as possible to narrow down possible claims. There are probably fewer than 100 really likely characters that rolenames are going to be drawn from, and the fact that ANY character from Wei is lynchable means that the mafia's choices become very limited.
Admittedly, we know that there are roles who are not necessarily associated with RoTK, but the chances of catching people through counterclaims rises dramatically through compartmentalizing claims, and we have a very easy way to do it.
Say hypothetically that there are 6 members of Wu in the game. There are probably no more than about 20-25 possibilities. Now say, hypothetically, that 2 mafia claim to be part of Wu. When forced to claim, they either have to claim a really obscure character at the bottom of the list, which makes them suspect, or they have to take a major risk of being counterclaimed. There's no really good choice for them, there. They can't just make something up after they claim a nation.
@Epeeguy: what's with the partial claiming? Where does that get us?
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
1) What do you mean by "Mafia and SK kills for last night is very good"?
Damn... That should have said "very good guess". I thought that's what it said when I was previewing my post... Eh well.
@Fade and carrion: I have my reason for doing what I did. And that reason leads me to address both of you...
@carrion: Why suggest narrowing down possible claims ASAP and then suddenly question why I would drop a big clue like that? This seems like a somewhat contradictory position to have, as trying to narrow down possible claims would result potentially in a lot of information getting out quickly and thus not benefitting Town as much as the Mafia. So, this course of action does not seem prudent; and I can understand why you would have a problem with my action. But, not in relation to your suggestion from your first post, nor your subsequent one.
@Fade: How did you base your picks as to who killed each player on Night 0 based on reputation alone? IMO, what about each makes them such that the Mafia would target one, versus the SK targeting the other? It seems a stretch to base the kill choices on reputation alone, especially with death information always being a huge clue...
@Fade: How did you base your picks as to who killed each player on Night 0 based on reputation alone? IMO, what about each makes them such that the Mafia would target one, versus the SK targeting the other? It seems a stretch to base the kill choices on reputation alone, especially with death information always being a huge clue...
Like I said, it's a guess - don't put too much stock in it. I don't really know what kind of reputation Machin has, but I do know Hvir is a fairly well-known player. Either the scum chose to go after Hvir and the SK went after Machin, or the other way around. In my mind, I figured the former was more likely, though I could very easily be wrong.
Anyway, I suppose the nation claiming isn't too harmful, as abilities shouldn't be tied to nation. But I'm not going to fully support it at the moment. I think we're better off talking a bit more.
Actually, Id think Hvir was the target of the SK. Mafia players recently seem to have been going after the lesser-knowns first, seeing as theyd more likely have doc protection.
On the other hand, Azrael is probably the highest profile player here, so anything is possible.
I dont really think we should nation claim yet personally. It serves no actual purpose (scum is going to claim one way or the other) to the town, and considering that we have 2 nations, some roles may be duplicated. As such, i wouldnt want to let the mafia know who isnt shu so they can try to hit a duplicate cop for example.
Having our cop hit night 0, if he's the only one, was rather bad for us. Certain people are obvious early inspection targets, and right now, we have no idea of their alignment (Azrael, once again).
Anyhow, there really is nothing to do right now but...... Vote Epeeguy to see if my votes count in this game
I LOVE beinga able to vote! *Does the Happy Dance*
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Mafia MVP Harry Potter Mafia!
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Now I'm sad. At least now I don't have to dig through that book. I'll just keep playing Dynasty Warriors. Go town!
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"Flesh so fine, so fine to tear, to gash the skin; skin to strip, to plait, so nice to plait the strips, so nice, so red the drops that fall; blood so red, so red, so sweet; sweet screams, pretty screams, singing screams, scream your song, sing your screams…” - The Eye of the World - Robert Jordan
Checking in.
I think the point Fade made regarding reputation is a good one.
There were only two players in this game I am not familiar with and now one of them is dead. Early game kills are done for various reasons and one of them is precieved threat due to player ability. I think that it is a safe bet that Machin's killer either knows him from prior games, had a tie to him or infromation on him from this game'set up or is just a reckless,random killer. The last possibility I think is highly unlikely so I will look at the other two to narrow dow the field of possible candidates.
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RELAPSED MAFIA JUNKIE
W – 33, L – 19, Broke Games - 9
Calvin & Hobbs Mafia, Mafia MVP
X-Men Mafia Town MVP
Simpson's Mafia - best use of character
Mtgnews Mafia Mafia - Town Madman
Mythos Mafia: the Dunwich Massacre Town MVP
English Literature Mafia Town MVP
Best Role-Playing Sin City Mafia
Werewolf Mafia - Mafia MVP
Doctor Mafia - Mafia MVP
Mafia: Escape from the Cylons - Town MVP
Lost Mafia - Co SK Winner with Kops
Random Mafia 3 - Town MVP
@carrion: Why suggest narrowing down possible claims ASAP and then suddenly question why I would drop a big clue like that? This seems like a somewhat contradictory position to have, as trying to narrow down possible claims would result potentially in a lot of information getting out quickly and thus not benefitting Town as much as the Mafia. So, this course of action does not seem prudent; and I can understand why you would have a problem with my action. But, not in relation to your suggestion from your first post, nor your subsequent one.
My problem is that you're giving away role info for no reason. Nation Claiming has the advantage that I can think of no reason to believe that Wei gets some kind of advantage over targeting one nation over another. Can you think of a reason to believe that?
Ability hinting, on the other hand, serves no purpose other then to just hand out clues about your role to anyone who happens to have enough info to speculate about it. It isn't scummy, per se, but in general, the mafia know more about the game than the average townie, so it's supremely unhelpful.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
My problem is that you're giving away role info for no reason. Nation Claiming has the advantage that I can think of no reason to believe that Wei gets some kind of advantage over targeting one nation over another. Can you think of a reason to believe that?
Ability hinting, on the other hand, serves no purpose other then to just hand out clues about your role to anyone who happens to have enough info to speculate about it. It isn't scummy, per se, but in general, the mafia know more about the game than the average townie, so it's supremely unhelpful.
Nation claiming will do little good. Say the mafia split evenly, and there are 15 total pro town players left in the game (not counting mafia / neutrals). Even with 25 possible roles, that means that perhaps 8 out of each will be taken. That means that there is over a 50% chance the mafia name-claim without a problem and we have no way of knowing. So maybe, if EVERYONE agrees to nation claim, we get 1, or on a really good day 2, mafia. However, this is deffinately not worth the 'duplicate role' cost that is explained above. The mafia may even have more information than we do about the nation system (throwback to shaman mafia), in which case we're in even more trouble. I do not like this plan.
On the other hand, it doesn't seem too detrimental, so if everyone's doing it I'll follow y'all off the cliff.
Nation Claiming has the advantage that I can think of no reason to believe that Wei gets some kind of advantage over targeting one nation over another. Can you think of a reason to believe that?
Nope, I don't believe it. In fact, I believe very much the opposite. I think the Mafia get quite a bit of information about knowing which Townies are associated with which Nations. All the while, the Town gains no conceivable benefit from that info. There's nothing it gives us in actually catching the Mafia, and potentially puts certain people at risk.
@loran16: Any particular reason you'd choose me to vote for? Or is that as good as a random vote?
EWP: It's good to see one person at least one person thinks the same as I on this.
Nope, I don't believe it. In fact, I believe very much the opposite. I think the Mafia get quite a bit of information about knowing which Townies are associated with which Nations. All the while, the Town gains no conceivable benefit from that info. There's nothing it gives us in actually catching the Mafia, and potentially puts certain people at risk.
@loran16: Any particular reason you'd choose me to vote for? Or is that as good as a random vote?
EWP: It's good to see one person at least one person thinks the same as I on this.
Correct Epeeguy. Nation claiming seems to have no help to the town, but can help the mafia.
And my vote on you is a random vote, correct. I normally wouldnt do so, but im savoring the fact i can vote in this game (see Seinfeld). So dont worry, im not accusing you of anything yet.
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Mafia MVP Harry Potter Mafia!
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
I also don't know of Shin's experience; since he only has 300 posts, I'd assume he's fairly new.
I would see the SK as more likely to target a well known player, who is more apt to expose him later in the game. That would be the logic I assume is behind taking out Hvir. Unless of course, the SK knows Shin from somewhere else, as HAWKEYE7 stated.
Im checkin in. As of right now, I am opposed to the nation claim. I dont think that the duplicate role risk is huge, nor do I think that it outweighs the possibility of catching mafia in a lie, it just doesnt seem like that great an idea to me.
On a slightly related note, people with extensive knowledge of RotTK should probably keep that fact to themselves. If I were scum I would want to eliminate those players with the best chance of catching me in some sort of endgame lie, and ppl who know the story will have a better ability to do that. We should only reveal knowledgable players as we need to.
I agree with fade's assessment of the kills (not that it is extremely relevant). Conventional wisdom is that SK wants to target players with low chance of protection to shorten the game. Maifa usually wants to kill off solid analysts so that they can control the game.
Whats up with the lack of random voting?? VOTE Ged for being a player I dont recognize.
Nation claiming will do little good. Say the mafia split evenly, and there are 15 total pro town players left in the game (not counting mafia / neutrals). Even with 25 possible roles, that means that perhaps 8 out of each will be taken. That means that there is over a 50% chance the mafia name-claim without a problem and we have no way of knowing. So maybe, if EVERYONE agrees to nation claim, we get 1, or on a really good day 2, mafia. However, this is deffinately not worth the 'duplicate role' cost that is explained above. The mafia may even have more information than we do about the nation system (throwback to shaman mafia), in which case we're in even more trouble. I do not like this plan.
On the other hand, it doesn't seem too detrimental, so if everyone's doing it I'll follow y'all off the cliff.
Oh, and hi. No, I'm not a texan.
Soooo, you're saying that a strategy that has less than 50% chance per mafia member of success is not worth trying.
I figured this strategy had about a 25% chance of outing any given player, so you're actually being quite a bit more optimistic about it than me. Let's examine that.
Say there are five mafiosi in the game (could be six, given the numbers, but we'll give the odds the maximum leeway). Say that it actually is a 25% chance to out a mafioso. That means that, on average, this strategy is extremely likely to catch at least one, and frequently two, scum. If we assume that there are more scum in the game (maybe 6 mafia, plus neutrals), odds become very high that we can catch 2 scum on a regular basis with this plan.
Now let's examine the risk. At this point, we can safely assume that a cop is dead, judging from the opening post. Whether that was our only cop, or whether he was sane, is something we will likely never know, or at least, not for a while. We certainly don't have any reason to believe that the nations mirror each other. Not only does that setup obviously tend toward imbalance, but it's also far too predictable later in the game. I highly doubt that Fayul would risk the balance of the game for something like that, especially when all the nations had such distinct mentalities.
It is possible that the mafia know something about the setup that we don't, but we know one extremely important thing: If we do a nation claim, every single one of the scum has to lie. As a general rule, we want the scum to be lying. It makes everything about their job harder.
We have absolutely zero reason to believe that nation claiming will be harmful. We don't know if it will produce positive results, but the mechanics of the game give us the general advantage, since we don't have to lie. Anything we can do to make their stories harder to keep straight is something we ought to do.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
And I'm definitely not happy with one of the kills that occured... *sigh* That definitely sucks for me.
Well, there's a line to put away for future reference. Usually, one would think an investigator dying night 1 sucks for everybody (mafia excepted).
The method of kills though is puzzling. Machin's was brute force, which doesn't immediately suggest an SK
It does in this game. Most of the likely SK characters are just powerful solo warlords who were too nuts or too egotistical to join up with one side. Given the description of "sheer force", I would put money on Lu Bu. Not that it really matters at this stage exactly what the character name is,
but Hvirfilvindr's method could definitely have been the work of one. Either that, or a Mafia assassination (based on my PM, I would believe that his kill was definitely Mafia).
I'll take your word for it.
Regarding cp's plan for a nation-claim, I think I might be for it. There's probably some way this game has been protected from a mass-claim, and lots of "lesser" characters is probably one so I don't know we could pick scum by doing a name claim and just looking for who didn't claim a big-name character.
As a Shu person (there, I said it), I'm also a bit suspicious of Wu. I don't think this is going to be as cut and dried as all Shu and Wu = straight town allied vs Wei. ROTK was never that straightforward, and this is a specialty game. Let's not have any deception between Shu and Wu as to numbers.
Plus, there might well be something to gain from forcing the mafia to commit to "Shu" or "Wu" from the start (or "other" if they're feeling adventurous). Besides locking them in early to a falsehood which may later become inconvenient, someone may know how many people are in their country and thus know how many liars have claimed that country.
Im checkin in. As of right now, I am opposed to the nation claim. I dont think that the duplicate role risk is huge, nor do I think that it outweighs the possibility of catching mafia in a lie, it just doesnt seem like that great an idea to me.
On a slightly related note, people with extensive knowledge of RotTK should probably keep that fact to themselves. If I were scum I would want to eliminate those players with the best chance of catching me in some sort of endgame lie, and ppl who know the story will have a better ability to do that. We should only reveal knowledgable players as we need to.
I agree with fade's assessment of the kills (not that it is extremely relevant). Conventional wisdom is that SK wants to target players with low chance of protection to shorten the game. Maifa usually wants to kill off solid analysts so that they can control the game.
Whats up with the lack of random voting?? VOTE Ged for being a player I dont recognize.
I don't like the Idea of a mass nation claim, we know far to little right now to few it as harmless, and it has a small chance of catching scum. Plus we must assume fayul took preventative measures when making the game. I plan on having finished reading the book by the end of the game , I suggest others do the same, without knowledge on the book you will be at a disadvantage and rely on what others think/say.
Well I seem to have developed the largest number of votes. Let me debunk them each in turn.
First, a bit about myself because everyone seems to be making comments that they don't know who I am. I signed up to these forums back at the great migration from MTGNews, played in the exremely ill fated 'Secret Society Mafia', posted once or twice about standard decks, and then lurked for 1-2 years. Specifically, I lurked mafia games. So finally I decide to join one (Newb 6; still in progress so I'll stop talking there). After dying there, I thought I'd join another. And thus I've dived into the mafia community.
Huzzah.
Second, Carrion Pigeon's vote against me. Um, ok? I used some bad logic, but it's roughly the same logic almost every other person has presented thus far. Any reason for singling me out other than my terribly rough statistics and cloudy thinking (I was between classes at school)?
Anyway, I'm still agreeing with the majority that nation claiming is fairly unnecessary, although I could probably (quite easily, in fact) be persuaded the other way.
I'm voting for you, Ged, because of all the arguments that have been presented, yours seemed most like trying to dismiss the idea out of hand. I obviously may be wrong about that - it's very early in the game - but that's the impression I got.
Th idea you had that it was a fundamentally useless ploy is already starting to spread; look at chamber's last post. When people make posts citing percentages and other math without trying to represent the math correctly, it's easy for people to just say, "He seems to know what he's talking about, so I won't bother doing the math myself." As a result, it can often be an easy way to maipulate the town, and I thus tend to be very suspicious of people who make up their own statistics for their own personal use.
What?! Look at the initial post; he is dead. Deceased. Kaputt. Indefinitely horizontal. In mafia games, you see, people are occasionally "killed off," and when that sad event occurs, he or she is no longer allowed to post, on account of rigor mortis and what-have-you.
'Welcome to Mafia Salvation', it said, 'Population: 3,660.' And someone, they never figured out who, had painted on the sign in red letters: '1,831 to lynch.'
I'm voting for you, Ged, because of all the arguments that have been presented, yours seemed most like trying to dismiss the idea out of hand. I obviously may be wrong about that - it's very early in the game - but that's the impression I got.
Th idea you had that it was a fundamentally useless ploy is already starting to spread; look at chamber's last post. When people make posts citing percentages and other math without trying to represent the math correctly, it's easy for people to just say, "He seems to know what he's talking about, so I won't bother doing the math myself." As a result, it can often be an easy way to maipulate the town, and I thus tend to be very suspicious of people who make up their own statistics for their own personal use.
My post had nothing to do with geds, I simply refuse to believe fayul would set up a game where a mass claim would net us multiple mafia.
I'm voting for you, Ged, because of all the arguments that have been presented, yours seemed most like trying to dismiss the idea out of hand. I obviously may be wrong about that - it's very early in the game - but that's the impression I got.
Th idea you had that it was a fundamentally useless ploy is already starting to spread; look at chamber's last post. When people make posts citing percentages and other math without trying to represent the math correctly, it's easy for people to just say, "He seems to know what he's talking about, so I won't bother doing the math myself." As a result, it can often be an easy way to maipulate the town, and I thus tend to be very suspicious of people who make up their own statistics for their own personal use.
Uh, CP? Some of us dont like the idea cuz it doesnt help the town at all. We dont know if its a 50/50 shu/wu split, if there is significance to what side you are on (which would make sense, considering Fayul is making sure to highlight the dead people's clan/tribe/whatever).
There could be roles that have alternate wins of killing off only one fo the two townie groups. There could be an uneven distribution, causing us to suspect stupidly.
There is little benefit the town gets from this. Of course, you seem to be the one shoving it down our throats. So do you have a reason to want the nation claims of each of us? Cuz i dont see a reson why a townie would.
Unvote Vote Carrion Pigeons
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
My post had nothing to do with geds, I simply refuse to believe fayul would set up a game where a mass claim would net us multiple mafia.
Well, based on her statements at the beginning of the thread, I'm not ruling it out as a useful techique. She mentioned that there were some counter-measures in place, but if we decide to gamble on the game being poorly designed, it doesn't seem unreaonable that we could glean a couple of leads from trying it.
But if we're going to do it, we need to do it immediately, before they have time to look up false claims. The only question is whether we'd be facing the possibility of revealing power roles. I'm hopeful that we won't have too much to worry about in that department, so I'm going to tentatively support the idea if it's applied quickly enough.
HI PEOPLES NEW MAFIA GAME WEEEEEEE ok maybe that was uncalled for, but hopefully this game doesnt blow up like clan did. As far as mass claim goes, I really dont see how it would help with people saying there are 100+ people in these books ( i am way to lazy to read them even though they seem good.... so hopefully that wont hurt my opinions that much Vote: AZ after hosting that crazy game u get my vote.
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<hotshizle> WINE IN FRONT OF MEAL
<hotshizle> i think
I dont see what ppl would have to look up to decide which group they want to false claim into.
Meh. My head's about to asplode, for non-game related reasons.
I've never read the books in question, but I imagine a name claim would have a much higher risk of exposing townie power roles. I think the idea was that if we got everyone to claim Shu, we'd be able to infer some things about the setup. And those that didn't we'd have a tad bit of information on too.
But that would be starting to narrow people down.
So the only really effective way to handle this and catch scum at the same time would be to name-claim, which I probably realized on some unconscious level. But that requires a high-degree of certainty that the game can be cracked open like a rotten egg.
Meh. It's worked before, in games like WC3. And by Fayul's own admission, it's vulnerable to those kinds of tactics.
Right now the most useful part of it seems to be that it's generating discussion.
Okay, I've been thinking about this, and I think we ought to claim our nation. Normally, I'm not a fan of mass claiming, but since we know that Wei is the mafia, it should narrow down a lot of possibilities for the scum.
Opinions?
I disagree with this idea. I feel it's too early to be thinking about revealing even that little information. It won't really limit the possible range of scum claims that highly (especially considering that Fayul claims to have taken measures to limit mass claim breaks), but it will reveal information about the town. and there is always the possibilty that scum have some sort of nation-derived knowledge (highly, highly, HIGHLY unlikely, but nonetheless possible) or that a neutral role is dedicated to wiping out one side or the other. Also RafK brings up the possiblity of Shu-Wu hostilites. All in all, I am against it. And made somewhat suspicious of you because of your insistence upon it. FOS: Carrion pigeons.
Quote from chamber »
If we group claim we are name claiming shortly after, I thought that was obvious.
Alright, CP's initial post contained nothing about this, but it is to some extent a logical extension. Certainly, the idea of scum having to rush appeals. However, I am strongly against a mass claim this early. I don't think CP was considering this as a prelude to immediate mass claim, but rather as a way to narrow down scum's potential false claims.
A name claim would perhaps catch us a few scum, but it would not win the game especially considering the existence of anti-breaking measures. It could harm us considerably to claim obvious power roles, too. Definitely against this move at this point.
Alright, CP's initial post contained nothing about this, but it is to some extent a logical extension. Certainly, the idea of scum having to rush appeals. However, I am strongly against a mass claim this early. I don't think CP was considering this as a prelude to immediate mass claim, but rather as a way to narrow down scum's potential false claims.
A name claim would perhaps catch us a few scum, but it would not win the game especially considering the existence of anti-breaking measures. It could harm us considerably to claim obvious power roles, too. Definitely against this move at this point.
Which is pretty much what I've been saying. And is why I'm against it. Claimign only nation does almost nothing for us, but could potentially do bad things, and although claiming name aswell could catch scum it will reveal power roles.
I'm going to say no mass claim, name or other. We have no obvious reason to break the game with a claim of kingdom, and it barely limits scum claims. A name claim will most definitly expose power roles, and with 100s of possible name claims it will be quite easy for the mafia to hide.
The risk/reward on each isn't in our favor for the time being.
Uh, CP? Some of us dont like the idea cuz it doesnt help the town at all. We dont know if its a 50/50 shu/wu split, if there is significance to what side you are on (which would make sense, considering Fayul is making sure to highlight the dead people's clan/tribe/whatever).
I'm sure there's significance. If there's people with something to gain from keep their mouths shut on which townie group they're in
There could be roles that have alternate wins of killing off only one fo the two townie groups. There could be an uneven distribution, causing us to suspect stupidly.
There is little benefit the town gets from this. Of course, you seem to be the one shoving it down our throats. So do you have a reason to want the nation claims of each of us? Cuz i dont see a reson why a townie would.
Unvote Vote Carrion Pigeons
As I said, the obvious benefit is locking the mafia in to claiming Wu or Shu without knowing if someone in Wu or Shu happens to know something to bust that claim. What if Wu's actually just a masonry? What if someone in Shu happens to know exactly how many people are really in Shu?
I don't think it exposes anything, and I think the odds of the scum getting busted by a townie information role is much, much greater than the chance of aiding some sort of weird SK that needs to alternate Shu/Wu kills or whatever. Heck, even that could help us what if there's a Shu with an alternate win condition of wiping out Wu? They might vig a scum who claimed Wu, something like that.
The more I think about it, the more I like it.
As an advantage, it's a definite plan for day 1 and could lead somewhere directed by actual analysis.
I do NOT like the idea of a mass name claim to follow up.
And FOS chamber for trying to link a mass name claim to the mass nation claim.
As I said, the obvious benefit is locking the mafia in to claiming Wu or Shu without knowing if someone in Wu or Shu happens to know something to bust that claim. What if Wu's actually just a masonry? What if someone in Shu happens to know exactly how many people are really in Shu?
I don't think it exposes anything, and I think the odds of the scum getting busted by a townie information role is much, much greater than the chance of aiding some sort of weird SK that needs to alternate Shu/Wu kills or whatever. Heck, even that could help us what if there's a Shu with an alternate win condition of wiping out Wu? They might vig a scum who claimed Wu, something like that.
The more I think about it, the more I like it.
As an advantage, it's a definite plan for day 1 and could lead somewhere directed by actual analysis.
I do NOT like the idea of a mass name claim to follow up.
And FOS chamber for trying to link a mass name claim to the mass nation claim.
This IS NOT clan mafia. Each nation is NOT masons. There may be masons in this game. But not an entire nation, DUH.
Meanwhile, there are a couple of problems. One we could have a PuzzleinWD2-like role, where he has to have killed or even kills himself a certain nation. Remember the opening post, there are loners who are probably neutral. Why not have that as a win condition for one of em?
REMEMBER, Fayul would not have specified the difference in Shu/Wu without a reason. There must be some help it is to someone to know about this info. Of course, i have no idea how it would help a townie, who is unlikely to have a list of the #s of the amoutn of people in each clan.
The only way a nation claim could conceivably catch scum is if it led to a name-claim as has been said by azrael and others. And of course, a mass name claim is BAD, especially with so many possible roles for mafia to choose from.
Nation claiming has no apparent use to us. As such, it is not worth risking, when it is far more likely to help scum or third-parties.
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
Th idea you had that it was a fundamentally useless ploy is already starting to spread; look at chamber's last post. When people make posts citing percentages and other math without trying to represent the math correctly, it's easy for people to just say, "He seems to know what he's talking about, so I won't bother doing the math myself." As a result, it can often be an easy way to maipulate the town, and I thus tend to be very suspicious of people who make up their own statistics for their own personal use.
At this point, I'm not willing to buy any statistics at this point. If only because there are too many variables to consider. Specifically:
1.) We have three different Nations, no idea if each Nation has a specific goal of its on, or how it relates to the other two Nations.
2.) We have some number of unaligned players in the game, and no idea how many of those there are. One of which is potentially an SK (again, it's very possible that was a Vig misfire).
3.) We have no idea of the composition of this game. With some number of unaligned players, there's no way to know what the break down of actual Wu, Shu or Wei players are. Besides which, I can't imagine that Fayul would make that such an easy thing so that we could analyze it and thus raise flags on certain claims.
4.) The Mafia being able to potentially use faction to identify targets among power roles is a very, very dangerous risk to the Town. Especially when we can't really use a mass Nation claim without following it up with something else.
5.) Given that Fayul hinted that the game might survive a mass Name claim (which is about the only thing that goes with a mass Nation claim that I can think of), that is a big strike against the plan.
I guess my biggest problem right now is that you've gone on the offensive against those people who raised questions on your plan, as opposed to providing more support/logic for your own plan. Even voting for Ged at this point is somewhat questionable, as you could have just as easily brought more strong points for your plan. And I do have to wonder why you would choose the vote as opposed to raising more points for your plan (especially when you make a few questionable points about its strength).
At this point, I'm not willing to buy any statistics at this point. If only because there are too many variables to consider. Specifically:
1.) We have three different Nations, no idea if each Nation has a specific goal of its on, or how it relates to the other two Nations.
2.) We have some number of unaligned players in the game, and no idea how many of those there are. One of which is potentially an SK (again, it's very possible that was a Vig misfire).
3.) We have no idea of the composition of this game. With some number of unaligned players, there's no way to know what the break down of actual Wu, Shu or Wei players are. Besides which, I can't imagine that Fayul would make that such an easy thing so that we could analyze it and thus raise flags on certain claims.
4.) The Mafia being able to potentially use faction to identify targets among power roles is a very, very dangerous risk to the Town. Especially when we can't really use a mass Nation claim without following it up with something else.
5.) Given that Fayul hinted that the game might survive a mass Name claim (which is about the only thing that goes with a mass Nation claim that I can think of), that is a big strike against the plan.
I guess my biggest problem right now is that you've gone on the offensive against those people who raised questions on your plan, as opposed to providing more support/logic for your own plan. Even voting for Ged at this point is somewhat questionable, as you could have just as easily brought more strong points for your plan. And I do have to wonder why you would choose the vote as opposed to raising more points for your plan (especially when you make a few questionable points about its strength).
FOS carrion pigeons
Excellent analysis; sums up my points quite admirably. In other words, Quantum Field Theory.
I am flirting with the idea of a vote on carrion pigeons. Certainly, the idea of a nation claim - and more so the name claim that is perhaps an extension of it - smack of fishing for info. Also, the agression he'sshown towards his opponents seems scummy - defensive, trying to deflect attention, etc. Although Ged may have deserved it there. However, it seems that the only way this could really be used as info fishing is if the mafia has some sort of information or if there is internicine warfare among the town, which isnt the most likely scenario IMO. On the whole, I am fine
with an FOS. If that makes any sense atall...
First of all, I'm firmly against the nation claim. Although it seems unlikely to help scum, I doubt it will help the town either, and giving away information without reasoning is a bad idea. We don't know what kind of information roles the mafia has, they do. I'm sure Fayul has some precautions in for a mass nameclaim Day 1.
@epeeguy: In your last post, you say that there is a very high chance that it was a misfiring vig. I don't see why you would think this, since I understand it is generally considered stupid to vig Night 0. You've also given off hints of role info early, which generally just makes you suspicious,
So I think you're either vig or SK, which deserves a FOS epeeguy.
So I think you're either vig or SK, which deserves a FOS epeeguy.
*snort*
Read my very first post, very closely and see just how wrong a guess this is. You couldn't be further from the mark on this (in fact RafaelK totally picked the wrong thing to pick up on from that post).
If it makes you feel any better, epeeguy, I at least thought it obvious what kind of claim you were making. But I still don't see that it was necessary at all, if you are indeed what I think you are. Unless you're want to claim the first day.
But I still don't see that it was necessary at all, if you are indeed what I think you are.
Actually, I figured that I could at least use it to see how people would respond to such an obvious hint. Unfortunately, I don't think it worked as well as I'd hoped. Perhaps the sheer obviousness of it discouraged too much comment.
Eh well, perhaps my long absence has made me a bit rustier than I thought and it was not as good a gambit as I'd hoped.
Actually, I figured that I could at least use it to see how people would respond to such an obvious hint. Unfortunately, I don't think it worked as well as I'd hoped. Perhaps the sheer obviousness of it discouraged too much comment.
Eh well, perhaps my long absence has made me a bit rustier than I thought and it was not as good a gambit as I'd hoped.
I don't see the point of it personally. Those who didn't get it it doestn help, and those who did get it....what good does it do them?
Kind of a wasted claim imo.
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
I didn't actually catch what you were claiming, regardless of how obvious it was. I've only seen a couple of the more basic roles so I doubt I'd recognize it even if I understood the claim.
I'll try to start reading the book, but it sounds so huge and daunting that I have no idea when I'll be done.
Unless you've got a really good reason to claim role straight away, why do that?
Mind you, I have no idea what your hidden claim is although I have a guess. I'd rather you not clarify this, thanks.
Name claims are a terrible idea; the dead roles alone should tell you there's links between power and role. FOS anyone and everyone who's suggested the idea
Nation claims: the mafia know which nation they're from and they know the rest of us are non-mafia. Can't help them to know this stuff- it's ludicrous to suggest that nation claim will help pick power roles, there's great and smart (and weak) characters in each nation. But forcing the mafia to invent lies is never bad for the town. It's much harder over the course of weeks and months to maintain a false claim than to be able to play without having committed to anything untrue.
Unless you've got a really good reason to claim role straight away, why do that?
Mind you, I have no idea what your hidden claim is although I have a guess. I'd rather you not clarify this, thanks.
Name claims are a terrible idea; the dead roles alone should tell you there's links between power and role. FOS anyone and everyone who's suggested the idea
Nation claims: the mafia know which nation they're from and they know the rest of us are non-mafia. Can't help them to know this stuff- it's ludicrous to suggest that nation claim will help pick power roles, there's great and smart (and weak) characters in each nation. But forcing the mafia to invent lies is never bad for the town. It's much harder over the course of weeks and months to maintain a false claim than to be able to play without having committed to anything untrue.
Do you not understand what we are saying?
What do we gain by having the mafia claim nations? NOTHING! We do not know anything about #s in each clan, or what each clan compriseses of. As such, WHAT DO WE GAIN BY HAVING THE MAFIA LIE ABOUT WHAT NATION THEY ARE IN! NOTHING!
But what can others gain?
A. There may be neutrals/scum with the goal of eliminating those of another nation.
B. Might tell the scum something due to one of the their roles (See Shaman mafia, where the mafia had a list of role names).
Considering that Fayul listed the dead townies as SHU and not TOWNIE, i assume that nation has some relevance to the game, besides townie and scum. As such, I think it is best we do NOT mass claim.
FOS RAFAELK for persisting in this madness.
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Quote from Seppel »
I love Joboman, Poggy, Niv, and Vezok, because, while they may not be the best players, they still try to win. Having fun is the most important thing to a game, but I've learned that if you don't try to win, then you're ruining everyone else's fun.
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Standard mafia rules are in effect, with the following addons, mostly lifted from Azrael.
1. Do -not- talk about this game with -anyone-. anyone. Players, dead players, bystanders, your mom, whatever. The only exception is, of course, if your role specifies it.
2. No editing. Threat of modkill. Blah blah blah.
3. Posting in large text is fine. Using images is also allowed, so long as forum rules would not prohibit them.
4. Be careful about paraphrasing your role PMs. And whatever you do, don’t quote them.
5. Any role that can converse during the night, can converse during the day.
6. None of the above rules apply if correspondence from me directly overrides them.
7. YOU CANNOT VOTE FOR THE MOD. CANNOT CANNOT CANNOT CANNOT. Also can’t.
8. As a service from the mod, once per game, each player gets the chance to request an official vote count. Please type, in bold, the words “Vote Count”, and you will have used your vote count for the game. No votes from the time of the official request until the time of my count are valid. Normal vote counts will still happen at regular intervals, of course.
9. My references are an abridged version of the Moss Roberts translation, www.threekingdoms.com, and, the Romance of the Three Kingdoms video game series. Because of this, all translations will be in Pinyin, as I hate Wade-Giles so much.
Living: 3/23
4. Fadeblue
19. Kenji
Not so living:
18. Machin Shin (Ding Yuan, Shu Ally) (Impaled night 1)link
22. Hvirfilvindr (Shi Guangyan, Shu Mystic/Investigator) (Throat cut Night 1)link
9. creampuffeater (Jiang Wei, Wei Outcast) (Banished Day 1)link
12. HAWKEYE7 (Liu Shan, Shu Successor) (assassinated Night 2)link
16. CropCircles (Sima Yi, Wei Plotter)(wound-through-the-torso, Night 2)link
6. Ged (Huang Hao, Shu Coward) (dissapearr'd, day 2) link
15. Hunted Charlie (Sun Ce, Wu Successor) (Decapitate, Night 3) link
14. Crippled_Fist (Sun Quan, Wu Successor) (Banished, Day 3)
10. matjoeman (Jian Yong, Shu Scholar)
20. Chamber (Sun Jian, Wu Emperor)
8. swinkee (Lu Bu, Neutral Killer)
3. carrion pigeons (Mi Heng, Shu Nuisance)
23. Jobie (Diao Chan, Neutral Seductress)
21. Xyre (Zhuge Liang, Shu Strategist)
2. Cyan (Dong Zhuo, Neutral Warlord)
17. Abandon Hope (Ma Su, Shu Student)
11. loran16 (Liu Bei, Shu Emperor)
1. Azrael (Jia Xu, Wei Mystic)
7. Arimnaes (Hua Tuo, Shu Medic)
13. KeeperEUSC (Sun Qian, Shu Scholar
5. RafaelK (Cao Cao, Wei Emperor)
Replacements:
Queued up: Disrupt_Your_Hymn
Sos -> Arimnaes
Epeeguy -> Swinkee
Peregine Falcon -> Abandon hope
Rhinocero -> Cyan
A reminder to all targeting roles: If you have no targets on a night, it would be helpful to send in a PM that says "No target".
Since the ancient times the forces and life and death have been guarded by two eternal spirits: the Southern Mystic of life, and the Northern Mystic of Death. These two were the most playful bunch, and given their great powers over the forces of the heavens, oftentimes decide to use their spiritual powers to amuse themselves. Today, they have brought some of the most famed personages from the Three Kingdoms period and brought them together to play a game for their own amusement.
The land was an immense peach garden as far as the eye can see, with the trees in full blossom. The southern mystic spoke.
“We have gathered you here today to play a game. You all have fought hard in life, in death, you will now find much reprieve in life. Most of you are divided into three kingdoms. The kingdom of Wei, the most intelligent and strong of them all. The forces of Wu, the strong diplomats and resourceful warriors. And the kingdom of Shu, beloved by the people and possessing of true virtue. In addition, some of you display no affinilation to any of these kingdoms…”
Alas, most of you have forgotten a good deal of your memories from your life, but you resolve to play on. You all know death, and all are wise enough not to trifle with forces this powerful.
The Wei kingdom are poised to assassinate people at night, while the Wu and Shu kingdoms form a tenuous alliance to combat them. Who knows where the others stand..
And thusly the greatest warriors are off to play the peculiar game developed by the mystics. The Northern Mystic describes it in only one word, foreign to all of you: “Mafia”.
Night 0:
Night 0 is a fully normal night. The deadline for night choices is noon, pacific standard time, Tuesday, February 21st. If I get all choices in before that, we can start sooner. All confirms are to be by PM: no posts in this thread until day.
role PM's are going out as we speak, so hang tight.
“The more astute among you will notice that our numbers are a bit lighter today.” He holds up a mirror, which shows the image of a dead person lying on the ground. He has a gaping cut in his stomach, and, well, you can postulate the rest from there. “This is Ding Yuan (Machin Shin), trusted ally to the kingdom of Shu. Not really a pretty sight, hmm. Oh, and there’s one more.” The mirror slowly changes, and you see another image: some sort of altar, with a headless body lying on it. He seems to have been taken out by a very clean cut, not like the sheer force that was used to impale Ding Yuan. “This man’s name is Shi Guangyan (Hvirfilvindr). As you might be able to guess from the surroundings, he was a rather talented mystic, and he of course worked for Shu. He seems to have set up a divination…he may have been able to determine the true allegiance of one here. That may have been useful.
Right then. There are 21 of you present, so please report back to me when 11 of you can reach a consensus on who to banish today. Good luck.”
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Opinions?
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cp: Wouldn't the Wei just claim either Shu or Wu?
But 2 kills already by (presuming that was not a Vig misfire) is already a bit of pressure from the beginning. And I'm definitely not happy with one of the kills that occured... *sigh* That definitely sucks for me.
EWP: I would agree with fade's estimation; Mafia and SK kills for last night is very good. Given it appears definitively that there are "non-aligned" characters in the game, the presence of an SK is very likely. The method of kills though is puzzling. Machin's was brute force, which doesn't immediately suggest an SK (could it have been a Vig misfire?); but Hvirfilvindr's method could definitely have been the work of one. Either that, or a Mafia assassination (based on my PM, I would believe that his kill was definitely Mafia).
Eh well, if Puzzle had been in the game, I would have done a not-so-random vote for him (just to keep up the adversarial standing between us). Otherwise, I'll refrain from any kind of vote for the time being. But, it's good to see the game started.
1) What do you mean by "Mafia and SK kills for last night is very good"?
2) Why are you semi-claiming already?
Admittedly, we know that there are roles who are not necessarily associated with RoTK, but the chances of catching people through counterclaims rises dramatically through compartmentalizing claims, and we have a very easy way to do it.
Say hypothetically that there are 6 members of Wu in the game. There are probably no more than about 20-25 possibilities. Now say, hypothetically, that 2 mafia claim to be part of Wu. When forced to claim, they either have to claim a really obscure character at the bottom of the list, which makes them suspect, or they have to take a major risk of being counterclaimed. There's no really good choice for them, there. They can't just make something up after they claim a nation.
@Epeeguy: what's with the partial claiming? Where does that get us?
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Damn... That should have said "very good guess". I thought that's what it said when I was previewing my post... Eh well.
@Fade and carrion: I have my reason for doing what I did. And that reason leads me to address both of you...
@carrion: Why suggest narrowing down possible claims ASAP and then suddenly question why I would drop a big clue like that? This seems like a somewhat contradictory position to have, as trying to narrow down possible claims would result potentially in a lot of information getting out quickly and thus not benefitting Town as much as the Mafia. So, this course of action does not seem prudent; and I can understand why you would have a problem with my action. But, not in relation to your suggestion from your first post, nor your subsequent one.
@Fade: How did you base your picks as to who killed each player on Night 0 based on reputation alone? IMO, what about each makes them such that the Mafia would target one, versus the SK targeting the other? It seems a stretch to base the kill choices on reputation alone, especially with death information always being a huge clue...
Like I said, it's a guess - don't put too much stock in it. I don't really know what kind of reputation Machin has, but I do know Hvir is a fairly well-known player. Either the scum chose to go after Hvir and the SK went after Machin, or the other way around. In my mind, I figured the former was more likely, though I could very easily be wrong.
Anyway, I suppose the nation claiming isn't too harmful, as abilities shouldn't be tied to nation. But I'm not going to fully support it at the moment. I think we're better off talking a bit more.
On the other hand, Azrael is probably the highest profile player here, so anything is possible.
I dont really think we should nation claim yet personally. It serves no actual purpose (scum is going to claim one way or the other) to the town, and considering that we have 2 nations, some roles may be duplicated. As such, i wouldnt want to let the mafia know who isnt shu so they can try to hit a duplicate cop for example.
Having our cop hit night 0, if he's the only one, was rather bad for us. Certain people are obvious early inspection targets, and right now, we have no idea of their alignment (Azrael, once again).
Anyhow, there really is nothing to do right now but......
Vote Epeeguy to see if my votes count in this game
I LOVE beinga able to vote! *Does the Happy Dance*
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
I think the point Fade made regarding reputation is a good one.
There were only two players in this game I am not familiar with and now one of them is dead. Early game kills are done for various reasons and one of them is precieved threat due to player ability. I think that it is a safe bet that Machin's killer either knows him from prior games, had a tie to him or infromation on him from this game'set up or is just a reckless,random killer. The last possibility I think is highly unlikely so I will look at the other two to narrow dow the field of possible candidates.
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My problem is that you're giving away role info for no reason. Nation Claiming has the advantage that I can think of no reason to believe that Wei gets some kind of advantage over targeting one nation over another. Can you think of a reason to believe that?
Ability hinting, on the other hand, serves no purpose other then to just hand out clues about your role to anyone who happens to have enough info to speculate about it. It isn't scummy, per se, but in general, the mafia know more about the game than the average townie, so it's supremely unhelpful.
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Nation claiming will do little good. Say the mafia split evenly, and there are 15 total pro town players left in the game (not counting mafia / neutrals). Even with 25 possible roles, that means that perhaps 8 out of each will be taken. That means that there is over a 50% chance the mafia name-claim without a problem and we have no way of knowing. So maybe, if EVERYONE agrees to nation claim, we get 1, or on a really good day 2, mafia. However, this is deffinately not worth the 'duplicate role' cost that is explained above. The mafia may even have more information than we do about the nation system (throwback to shaman mafia), in which case we're in even more trouble. I do not like this plan.
On the other hand, it doesn't seem too detrimental, so if everyone's doing it I'll follow y'all off the cliff.
Oh, and hi. No, I'm not a texan.
Nope, I don't believe it. In fact, I believe very much the opposite. I think the Mafia get quite a bit of information about knowing which Townies are associated with which Nations. All the while, the Town gains no conceivable benefit from that info. There's nothing it gives us in actually catching the Mafia, and potentially puts certain people at risk.
@loran16: Any particular reason you'd choose me to vote for? Or is that as good as a random vote?
EWP: It's good to see one person at least one person thinks the same as I on this.
Correct Epeeguy. Nation claiming seems to have no help to the town, but can help the mafia.
And my vote on you is a random vote, correct. I normally wouldnt do so, but im savoring the fact i can vote in this game (see Seinfeld). So dont worry, im not accusing you of anything yet.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
I also don't know of Shin's experience; since he only has 300 posts, I'd assume he's fairly new.
I would see the SK as more likely to target a well known player, who is more apt to expose him later in the game. That would be the logic I assume is behind taking out Hvir. Unless of course, the SK knows Shin from somewhere else, as HAWKEYE7 stated.
On a slightly related note, people with extensive knowledge of RotTK should probably keep that fact to themselves. If I were scum I would want to eliminate those players with the best chance of catching me in some sort of endgame lie, and ppl who know the story will have a better ability to do that. We should only reveal knowledgable players as we need to.
I agree with fade's assessment of the kills (not that it is extremely relevant). Conventional wisdom is that SK wants to target players with low chance of protection to shorten the game. Maifa usually wants to kill off solid analysts so that they can control the game.
Whats up with the lack of random voting?? VOTE Ged for being a player I dont recognize.
Soooo, you're saying that a strategy that has less than 50% chance per mafia member of success is not worth trying.
I figured this strategy had about a 25% chance of outing any given player, so you're actually being quite a bit more optimistic about it than me. Let's examine that.
Say there are five mafiosi in the game (could be six, given the numbers, but we'll give the odds the maximum leeway). Say that it actually is a 25% chance to out a mafioso. That means that, on average, this strategy is extremely likely to catch at least one, and frequently two, scum. If we assume that there are more scum in the game (maybe 6 mafia, plus neutrals), odds become very high that we can catch 2 scum on a regular basis with this plan.
Now let's examine the risk. At this point, we can safely assume that a cop is dead, judging from the opening post. Whether that was our only cop, or whether he was sane, is something we will likely never know, or at least, not for a while. We certainly don't have any reason to believe that the nations mirror each other. Not only does that setup obviously tend toward imbalance, but it's also far too predictable later in the game. I highly doubt that Fayul would risk the balance of the game for something like that, especially when all the nations had such distinct mentalities.
It is possible that the mafia know something about the setup that we don't, but we know one extremely important thing: If we do a nation claim, every single one of the scum has to lie. As a general rule, we want the scum to be lying. It makes everything about their job harder.
We have absolutely zero reason to believe that nation claiming will be harmful. We don't know if it will produce positive results, but the mechanics of the game give us the general advantage, since we don't have to lie. Anything we can do to make their stories harder to keep straight is something we ought to do.
Oh yeah. Vote Ged.
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Well, there's a line to put away for future reference. Usually, one would think an investigator dying night 1 sucks for everybody (mafia excepted).
It does in this game. Most of the likely SK characters are just powerful solo warlords who were too nuts or too egotistical to join up with one side. Given the description of "sheer force", I would put money on Lu Bu. Not that it really matters at this stage exactly what the character name is,
I'll take your word for it.
Regarding cp's plan for a nation-claim, I think I might be for it. There's probably some way this game has been protected from a mass-claim, and lots of "lesser" characters is probably one so I don't know we could pick scum by doing a name claim and just looking for who didn't claim a big-name character.
As a Shu person (there, I said it), I'm also a bit suspicious of Wu. I don't think this is going to be as cut and dried as all Shu and Wu = straight town allied vs Wei. ROTK was never that straightforward, and this is a specialty game. Let's not have any deception between Shu and Wu as to numbers.
Plus, there might well be something to gain from forcing the mafia to commit to "Shu" or "Wu" from the start (or "other" if they're feeling adventurous). Besides locking them in early to a falsehood which may later become inconvenient, someone may know how many people are in their country and thus know how many liars have claimed that country.
I don't like the Idea of a mass nation claim, we know far to little right now to few it as harmless, and it has a small chance of catching scum. Plus we must assume fayul took preventative measures when making the game. I plan on having finished reading the book by the end of the game , I suggest others do the same, without knowledge on the book you will be at a disadvantage and rely on what others think/say.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
First, a bit about myself because everyone seems to be making comments that they don't know who I am. I signed up to these forums back at the great migration from MTGNews, played in the exremely ill fated 'Secret Society Mafia', posted once or twice about standard decks, and then lurked for 1-2 years. Specifically, I lurked mafia games. So finally I decide to join one (Newb 6; still in progress so I'll stop talking there). After dying there, I thought I'd join another. And thus I've dived into the mafia community.
Huzzah.
Second, Carrion Pigeon's vote against me. Um, ok? I used some bad logic, but it's roughly the same logic almost every other person has presented thus far. Any reason for singling me out other than my terribly rough statistics and cloudy thinking (I was between classes at school)?
Anyway, I'm still agreeing with the majority that nation claiming is fairly unnecessary, although I could probably (quite easily, in fact) be persuaded the other way.
Th idea you had that it was a fundamentally useless ploy is already starting to spread; look at chamber's last post. When people make posts citing percentages and other math without trying to represent the math correctly, it's easy for people to just say, "He seems to know what he's talking about, so I won't bother doing the math myself." As a result, it can often be an easy way to maipulate the town, and I thus tend to be very suspicious of people who make up their own statistics for their own personal use.
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My post had nothing to do with geds, I simply refuse to believe fayul would set up a game where a mass claim would net us multiple mafia.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
Uh, CP? Some of us dont like the idea cuz it doesnt help the town at all. We dont know if its a 50/50 shu/wu split, if there is significance to what side you are on (which would make sense, considering Fayul is making sure to highlight the dead people's clan/tribe/whatever).
There could be roles that have alternate wins of killing off only one fo the two townie groups. There could be an uneven distribution, causing us to suspect stupidly.
There is little benefit the town gets from this. Of course, you seem to be the one shoving it down our throats. So do you have a reason to want the nation claims of each of us? Cuz i dont see a reson why a townie would.
Unvote
Vote Carrion Pigeons
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
Well, based on her statements at the beginning of the thread, I'm not ruling it out as a useful techique. She mentioned that there were some counter-measures in place, but if we decide to gamble on the game being poorly designed, it doesn't seem unreaonable that we could glean a couple of leads from trying it.
But if we're going to do it, we need to do it immediately, before they have time to look up false claims. The only question is whether we'd be facing the possibility of revealing power roles. I'm hopeful that we won't have too much to worry about in that department, so I'm going to tentatively support the idea if it's applied quickly enough.
I dont see what ppl would have to look up to decide which group they want to false claim into.
If we group claim we are name claiming shortly after, I thought that was obvious.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
Meh. My head's about to asplode, for non-game related reasons.
I've never read the books in question, but I imagine a name claim would have a much higher risk of exposing townie power roles. I think the idea was that if we got everyone to claim Shu, we'd be able to infer some things about the setup. And those that didn't we'd have a tad bit of information on too.
But that would be starting to narrow people down.
So the only really effective way to handle this and catch scum at the same time would be to name-claim, which I probably realized on some unconscious level. But that requires a high-degree of certainty that the game can be cracked open like a rotten egg.
Meh. It's worked before, in games like WC3. And by Fayul's own admission, it's vulnerable to those kinds of tactics.
Right now the most useful part of it seems to be that it's generating discussion.
Alright, CP's initial post contained nothing about this, but it is to some extent a logical extension. Certainly, the idea of scum having to rush appeals. However, I am strongly against a mass claim this early. I don't think CP was considering this as a prelude to immediate mass claim, but rather as a way to narrow down scum's potential false claims.
A name claim would perhaps catch us a few scum, but it would not win the game especially considering the existence of anti-breaking measures. It could harm us considerably to claim obvious power roles, too. Definitely against this move at this point.
Which is pretty much what I've been saying. And is why I'm against it. Claimign only nation does almost nothing for us, but could potentially do bad things, and although claiming name aswell could catch scum it will reveal power roles.
Town/Mafia/Other - 14/6/3
Win/Lose/Tie - 11/12/0
Nk/lynched/Survived - 16/4/3
The risk/reward on each isn't in our favor for the time being.
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || sk: LookingforReality (Copycat) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || survivor: matjoeman (Anarchist) |||
<XylBot> ||| MAFIABOT || town: kops (Anarchist) |||
Mafia stats
As I said, the obvious benefit is locking the mafia in to claiming Wu or Shu without knowing if someone in Wu or Shu happens to know something to bust that claim. What if Wu's actually just a masonry? What if someone in Shu happens to know exactly how many people are really in Shu?
I don't think it exposes anything, and I think the odds of the scum getting busted by a townie information role is much, much greater than the chance of aiding some sort of weird SK that needs to alternate Shu/Wu kills or whatever. Heck, even that could help us what if there's a Shu with an alternate win condition of wiping out Wu? They might vig a scum who claimed Wu, something like that.
The more I think about it, the more I like it.
As an advantage, it's a definite plan for day 1 and could lead somewhere directed by actual analysis.
I do NOT like the idea of a mass name claim to follow up.
And FOS chamber for trying to link a mass name claim to the mass nation claim.
This IS NOT clan mafia. Each nation is NOT masons. There may be masons in this game. But not an entire nation, DUH.
Meanwhile, there are a couple of problems. One we could have a PuzzleinWD2-like role, where he has to have killed or even kills himself a certain nation. Remember the opening post, there are loners who are probably neutral. Why not have that as a win condition for one of em?
REMEMBER, Fayul would not have specified the difference in Shu/Wu without a reason. There must be some help it is to someone to know about this info. Of course, i have no idea how it would help a townie, who is unlikely to have a list of the #s of the amoutn of people in each clan.
The only way a nation claim could conceivably catch scum is if it led to a name-claim as has been said by azrael and others. And of course, a mass name claim is BAD, especially with so many possible roles for mafia to choose from.
Nation claiming has no apparent use to us. As such, it is not worth risking, when it is far more likely to help scum or third-parties.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
At this point, I'm not willing to buy any statistics at this point. If only because there are too many variables to consider. Specifically:
1.) We have three different Nations, no idea if each Nation has a specific goal of its on, or how it relates to the other two Nations.
2.) We have some number of unaligned players in the game, and no idea how many of those there are. One of which is potentially an SK (again, it's very possible that was a Vig misfire).
3.) We have no idea of the composition of this game. With some number of unaligned players, there's no way to know what the break down of actual Wu, Shu or Wei players are. Besides which, I can't imagine that Fayul would make that such an easy thing so that we could analyze it and thus raise flags on certain claims.
4.) The Mafia being able to potentially use faction to identify targets among power roles is a very, very dangerous risk to the Town. Especially when we can't really use a mass Nation claim without following it up with something else.
5.) Given that Fayul hinted that the game might survive a mass Name claim (which is about the only thing that goes with a mass Nation claim that I can think of), that is a big strike against the plan.
I guess my biggest problem right now is that you've gone on the offensive against those people who raised questions on your plan, as opposed to providing more support/logic for your own plan. Even voting for Ged at this point is somewhat questionable, as you could have just as easily brought more strong points for your plan. And I do have to wonder why you would choose the vote as opposed to raising more points for your plan (especially when you make a few questionable points about its strength).
FOS carrion pigeons
I am flirting with the idea of a vote on carrion pigeons. Certainly, the idea of a nation claim - and more so the name claim that is perhaps an extension of it - smack of fishing for info. Also, the agression he'sshown towards his opponents seems scummy - defensive, trying to deflect attention, etc. Although Ged may have deserved it there. However, it seems that the only way this could really be used as info fishing is if the mafia has some sort of information or if there is internicine warfare among the town, which isnt the most likely scenario IMO. On the whole, I am fine
with an FOS. If that makes any sense atall...
@epeeguy: In your last post, you say that there is a very high chance that it was a misfiring vig. I don't see why you would think this, since I understand it is generally considered stupid to vig Night 0. You've also given off hints of role info early, which generally just makes you suspicious,
So I think you're either vig or SK, which deserves a FOS epeeguy.
*snort*
Read my very first post, very closely and see just how wrong a guess this is. You couldn't be further from the mark on this (in fact RafaelK totally picked the wrong thing to pick up on from that post).
Actually, I figured that I could at least use it to see how people would respond to such an obvious hint. Unfortunately, I don't think it worked as well as I'd hoped. Perhaps the sheer obviousness of it discouraged too much comment.
Eh well, perhaps my long absence has made me a bit rustier than I thought and it was not as good a gambit as I'd hoped.
I don't see the point of it personally. Those who didn't get it it doestn help, and those who did get it....what good does it do them?
Kind of a wasted claim imo.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity
I'll try to start reading the book, but it sounds so huge and daunting that I have no idea when I'll be done.
Mind you, I have no idea what your hidden claim is although I have a guess. I'd rather you not clarify this, thanks.
Name claims are a terrible idea; the dead roles alone should tell you there's links between power and role. FOS anyone and everyone who's suggested the idea
Nation claims: the mafia know which nation they're from and they know the rest of us are non-mafia. Can't help them to know this stuff- it's ludicrous to suggest that nation claim will help pick power roles, there's great and smart (and weak) characters in each nation. But forcing the mafia to invent lies is never bad for the town. It's much harder over the course of weeks and months to maintain a false claim than to be able to play without having committed to anything untrue.
Do you not understand what we are saying?
What do we gain by having the mafia claim nations? NOTHING! We do not know anything about #s in each clan, or what each clan compriseses of. As such, WHAT DO WE GAIN BY HAVING THE MAFIA LIE ABOUT WHAT NATION THEY ARE IN! NOTHING!
But what can others gain?
A. There may be neutrals/scum with the goal of eliminating those of another nation.
B. Might tell the scum something due to one of the their roles (See Shaman mafia, where the mafia had a list of role names).
Considering that Fayul listed the dead townies as SHU and not TOWNIE, i assume that nation has some relevance to the game, besides townie and scum. As such, I think it is best we do NOT mass claim.
FOS RAFAELK for persisting in this madness.
Logical Reasoning is dead; Long Live Stupidity