This isn't your daddy's game of mafia. In fact, this will be different from every other game of mafia you've played before. Inspiration for this game came from here. You and all your fellow players are locked in not just one game, but a possible space of many games. It is up to you to determine the best course of action to not only position yourself to be on the winning team, but to also allow your team to win.
Da' Rules:
No PM Quoting
DO NOT edit your posts. I don't care why, don't do it
Bold your votes and unvotes. Your vote will not move unless you unvote first
If you are going to be gone longer than 72 hours, let me know in advance. If you are going to be gone longer than a week, I reserve the right to replace you to keep the flow of the game going
As long as you have a chance of being the cop or kill-deciding mafia, you need to send the corresponding night choices to me within 72 hours of night starting
There will be 9 Vanilla Town, 1 Cop, 1 Alpha Mafia, and 1 Beta Mafia
All percentages will be rounded to the nearest whole number
"I'm reading some faulty sensor warnings down on the lower level," Bob told his partner across the room while fighting off the urge to fall back asleep.
"What makes you think they're faulty?"
"It says there are two people down by the accelerator. That isn't exactly good for your health while they're running experiments." Bob briefly thought back to the safety training courses he was required to take before becoming one of the safety and security officers of the LHC. Everyone knew that while the warning lights were lit and flashing, you don't want to be anywhere near the device. 'Radiation kills' one of the animated characters on the screen warned. "No ****," Bob mumbled under his breath.
Bob was brought back to attention with the sound of klaxons blaring. He knew this couldn't be good. The stability of the system was dropping like a rock and he felt the ground vibrate just as all the video screens went black.
Adrian shouted, "Holy ****, we've even lost communication with the labs. What the hell is happening?"
It is currently N0. No posting in the thread, if you have a chance of being the cop or alpha mafia please send your night actions to me within the next 3 days. D1 can begin once I've received all night actions.
It seems everyone wanted either me or Arti dead for the same reason I killed Arti - take out the best players who would likely be mafia.
Good news, however, my odds of being mafia started off low and now they're even lower.
Vote KCC for asking a question and not taking the lead.
How do you know they went lower?
I'm trying to figure out the math and odds on each. Where I started and see who said what they did.
By the way I targetted Seppel. Couldn't ever read you in a game and can't trust you either.
Also if I'm reading correctly on somethings with the set up it seems the kill % is based on how likely someone is to be scum.
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I am female, hear me roar!
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
Vote KCC for asking a question and not taking the lead.
You caught me, I'm scum. -Maybe.
@PB: The average chance of someone being cop is about 8%. The average odds of someone being scum is about 17% (8% A, 8% B). And the average chance of being VT is 75%. Anything higher than those is above average, and anything lower is below. -And yes, the death % you inflict should be based on the odds of you being mafia A.
@PB: The average chance of someone being cop is about 8%. The average odds of someone being scum is about 17% (8% A, 8% B). And the average chance of being VT is 75%. Anything higher than those is above average, and anything lower is below. -And yes, the death % you inflict should be based on the odds of you being mafia A.
So why did you shot Seppel? And are you saying the scum that is possible scum thinks they are town???? How do you explain the 3% death on one player then?
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I am female, hear me roar!
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
Hmm. Maybe... The problem is that as we become the actual full quantum locked scum later in the game, we'll be handing "them" the game, if we're all trying to be town at the moment.
Also, I take it that a grip of people with access to Alpha Scum shot me. Because I know for as close to a fact as I can that one of them is Arcadic, I'll:
Vote Arcadic <--not an RVS vote, as I think my death percentage is high because someone with a high scum percentage targetted me. Because I know he will be one of them (Night Zero grudge shot without a doubt), my vote will not move.
Feel free to vote me for it. It looks as I'm likely doomed anyway.
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My Clan Is Dead.... Long Live The Izzet! Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
You hidding something there by not answering the question?
vote: Tanarin
Nope, completely random vote. Had to get it out of my system. Also didn't think the question was serious at this point. Apparently I was wrong on that one.
Unvote
Anyway, I shot at Artifice and inspected Seppel, with a town result.
@Artifice: I am worried about that too. Maybe we need a sacrificial lamb here to take a player off the board and up the odds. I am willing to volunteer unless someone has a better idea.
So why did you shot Seppel? And are you saying the scum that is possible scum thinks they are town???? How do you explain the 3% death on one player then?
Whoever shot WG looks really good. -Very low odds of that player being scum (baring an irrationally high B%). And of course the possible scum are possible town: that's the whole point of this game.
The only players who should be playing like scum are those with an A+B% over 25% or so.
Hmm. Maybe... The problem is that as we become the actual full quantum locked scum later in the game, we'll be handing "them" the game, if we're all trying to be town at the moment.
That's the only issue I've been able to see too. And since my scum odds are low enough that I'd rather bank on me being town, I'll help.
Note: An error in my counting of death percentages was noticed, currently recalculating; the correct numbers will be up shortly. Other percentages received in PM should be correct
Note: An error in my counting of death percentages was noticed, currently recalculating; the correct numbers will be up shortly. Other percentages received in PM should be correct
Lemme guess: I'm at 68% dead?
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My Clan Is Dead.... Long Live The Izzet! Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
Someone with a low cop% (under 4) should step forward as today's sacrificial lynch.
Tonight we have everyone shoot at a different assigned player.
Anyone whose death% doesn't change tomorrow, we lynch whoever was supposed to shoot them for not following directions.
However, if everyone plays along nicely, then we lynch whoever's target died the most for being most likely scum.
I copped Seppel and got a town result, I also decided to kill Artifice 101.
I also don't understand your supposed "plan" KCC. If the players are assigned other players to shoot, how would one target die the most? Also, who would assign who shoots who? If the assigner is scum, then they could easily flip this game on it's ass and we would all lose.
Unless I am interpreting it incorrectly it doesn't sound like a good plan...
Well we can take out the whole one person assigns all kills and instead just have the person shoot the person below them, a la Texas Justice (See here for how Texas Justice was broken)
Well we can take out the whole one person assigns all kills and instead just have the person shoot the person below them, a la Texas Justice (See here for how Texas Justice was broken)
No. This is just arbitrary and allows those that are more likely to cultivate a scum win to manipulate the results. It is similar to how we as scum manipulated the votes in Ender's Mafia.
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My Clan Is Dead.... Long Live The Izzet! Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
@Sep and Art: You know that logic doesn't work right? -If the other is mafia, you couldn't kill them with your mafia NK, because you can't shoot your teammate. And if you end up town, you can't kill the other with your NK, because townies don't get NKs. All you've done is assure that you can't be scumbuddies together. -Which is good, but not what you were attempting to do.
Also, Art's B% plummeting makes sense. -With so many people shooting him, the number of possible scumbuddies he could have dropped severely. I'm sure seppel's did as well.
@LN: One would die the most, because the person shooting them is the most likely scum. And killing the next in line on the player list is a fine way to assign it. It shouldn't matter how we approach it, the results end up the same.
So I'm pretty sure I've broken the game such that town win by the end of day 3 (day 4 in some very exceptional circumstances). If anybody including our illustrious mod wants be to sub out and not spoil the party, I'm happy to
One more point before I go (at work so can't stay long):
I shot WG (total random I swear, don't hold it against me!). While in my specific case the low kill percentage relates to low alpha mafia percentage, the other possibility when people do low percentage kills is that their target is was their buddy in a disproportionately high number of worlds (which don't exist anymore, but still...)
Those of you who shot Seppel through fear of him playing a pro mafia game - you've increased his odds of being mafia, and given yourself 0% odds of being his buddy, so your logic's a bit backwards...
Whoever shot WG looks really good. -Very low odds of that player being scum (baring an irrationally high B%). And of course the possible scum are possible town: that's the whole point of this game.
And so what about the guy who shot you then? (Namely me. Don't hate me).
Also my beta mafia went up slightly, from 8 to 9%. My alpha remains at 6%.
The only players who should be playing like scum are those with an A+B% over 25% or so.
Does anyone have numbers that high?
That's the only issue I've been able to see too. And since my scum odds are low enough that I'd rather bank on me being town, I'll help.
-If I'm the cop, Art is town.
No, all you know is that he's part town. I copped him and got the same result btw. Somehow bumped my cop to 9%. I'm 76% VT.
Someone with a low cop% (under 4) should step forward as today's sacrificial lynch.
Tonight we have everyone shoot at a different assigned player.
Anyone whose death% doesn't change tomorrow, we lynch whoever was supposed to shoot them for not following directions.
However, if everyone plays along nicely, then we lynch whoever's target died the most for being most likely scum.
-We repeat each night and win. Thoughts?
I liked this. I also think we should all claim percentages and actions.
So I'm pretty sure I've broken the game such that town win by the end of day 3 (day 4 in some very exceptional circumstances). If anybody including our illustrious mod wants be to sub out and not spoil the party, I'm happy to
And how is that?
One more point before I go (at work so can't stay long):
I shot WG (total random I swear, don't hold it against me!). While in my specific case the low kill percentage relates to low alpha mafia percentage, the other possibility when people do low percentage kills is that their target is was their buddy in a disproportionately high number of worlds (which don't exist anymore, but still...)
Those of you who shot Seppel through fear of him playing a pro mafia game - you've increased his odds of being mafia, and given yourself 0% odds of being his buddy, so your logic's a bit backwards...
No, all you know is that he's part town. I copped him and got the same result btw. Somehow bumped my cop to 9%. I'm 76% VT.
As per the rules, the worlds in which one of you is cop are guaranteed to contain a towny Art. Given that your investigation returned town, the worlds where you're cop and he's scum have now been erased.
Vote Tanarin for assuming that assumptions are bad.
Shot Artifice and copped Seppel (Town).
I suspect that people who shot Seppel (and perhaps Artifice) are more likely to have a higher base Alpha percentage. Assuming that Seppel had 4 people shoot him and Artifice 5 (given the remainder), the average for percentage increase for Seppel is 9.75%, while Artifice is 9%.
It is very probable that not being shot increases your Beta percentage. Vanilla Town percentage remains static. Conversely, if you were shot, your Beta percentage would decrease for obvious reasons.
If you copped someone and received town, your cop percentage would most likely increase. Mafia percentages for whoever you targeted would probably decrease, as would cop percentages.
Did anyone have a change in their Vanilla Town percentage?
So here's a question: a player's "dead" percentage goes down based on if the players that tried to kill him or her are dead?
Because I'm curious when the strategy turns from lynching valid candidates to lowest risk of losing a Cop... and when/if I decide this game is unfun. For the moment I'm intrigued.
We need to determine if there's a best case lynch today, and I think NeedMoreGimmick is possibly on the right track, but going about it wrong. Are all the percentages equal or not? Because someone sho shot me might be much more likely scum, either before or after shooting me.
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So here's a question: a player's "dead" percentage goes down based on if the players that tried to kill him or her are dead?
Depends what they are dead as. If they alpha'd you, and then are lynched and their waveform collapses as town, a whole bunch of worlds in which you were dead don't exist anymore, so your dead percentage goes down. If they're lynched as alpha, you're 100% dead, as are the rest of their NKs.
Because I'm curious when the strategy turns from lynching valid candidates to lowest risk of losing a Cop... and when/if I decide this game is unfun. For the moment I'm intrigued.
At the end of the day, we have to decide if we all want to play as town or not. I feel like an ideal strategy should give you better odds than just the odds that you're currently town.
We need to determine if there's a best case lynch today, and I think NeedMoreGimmick is possibly on the right track, but going about it wrong. Are all the percentages equal or not? Because someone sho shot me might be much more likely scum, either before or after shooting me.
In isolation, shooting somebody makes it less likely you're scum. It doesn't have any effect on the worlds in which you're not scum, and it eliminates the worlds in which your target was your beta. However, because everybody did various shenanigans throughout the night, we've all reduced the total number of worlds, so the interactions is what will cause people's odds to shift either way. It's almost impossible at this stage to deduce much from what we're given, except a rough estimate at who shot who (and we can just claim this anyway).
Anyway, if nobody objects, I can make town win. The problem is it forces us to out 2 people of our choosing as scum, which may seem unfair, so
1) I would like to be assured I'd stay town and win
2) I have an idea of how to determine these people, but it involves telling the idea in the first place.
Still not sure how people feel about it the idea of breaking the game this early though...
In everyone's next post, please state whether you would like to:
A) "break" the game as Chicken is suggesting
B) claim all percentages we have so far
C) claim all percentages moving forward
All the jockying will happen in the later game. Because of this, I'm commiting to winning as town, since my chances otherwise are super slim obviously. I commit to this at a level of Lynch All Liars.
My answers are:
A) Not into making this unfun, but curious what you will suggest. Mark me as a "maybe"
B) I'd love to, although we have to be very careful about role PM quoting, I guess
C) Yes, I'd like to do this.
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Unlikely that it is possible to break the game with certainty.
Compiling list of percentage-affecting game states now...
My certainty = 100% - [the chance that somebody rolled 0% scum (which I assume is infinitesimally small) * 1/12 (the chance that we choose that person as one of our outs for scum)]. Even then, it just means it takes a day longer.
In everyone's next post, please state whether you would like to:
A) "break" the game as Chicken is suggesting
B) claim all percentages we have so far
C) claim all percentages moving forward
All the jockying will happen in the later game. Because of this, I'm commiting to winning as town, since my chances otherwise are super slim obviously. I commit to this at a level of Lynch All Liars.
My answers are:
A) Not into making this unfun, but curious what you will suggest. Mark me as a "maybe"
B) I'd love to, although we have to be very careful about role PM quoting, I guess
C) Yes, I'd like to do this.
A) My problem is I'd rather not because then we haven't really played anything and I go down in history as the new guy who ruins fun
However, if people agree to doing it and agree that I be made town, then I'm 100% to win. Any other strategy I play from that point then becomes less than ideal...
B) Once again, I think everybody just quoting percentages and lynching 'most scummy' or 'least cop' is no more relevant than doing that in any game. You could start a game, say 'nobody look at their role PMs and we'll lynch randomly', and end up having similar odds of winning. If you wanted to roll a D12 and declare yourself the winner on > 2, why come here? (note: ruining the strategising element of the game is why I don't like A, and am happy to sub out/be today's lynch candidate (7% cop with a scum hit))
C) You mean don't say them now, but say them starting as of tomorrow? Will this make anybody play with a different strategy to B?
Wanting people to claim is a scum tell - totally valid in this I swear!
I copped and shot Seppel, just for fun. He turned out town from my 8% coppishness.
A) I don't want the game to be broken, allthough I'm intrigued as to how it can be done. If it is 100% certain, then it feels like winning in a video game with a cheat code :/
B) This seems like a useful tool.
C) Same question as CF, does this mean claim what we have gotten and all future stuff, or just all future stuff? Because I don't see much point in the latter if we lack the present to compare with.
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Damnation studios!
P9 - VT - Win
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
In everyone's next post, please state whether you would like to:
A) "break" the game as Chicken is suggesting
B) claim all percentages we have so far
C) claim all percentages moving forward
A) The way I am seeing this game at this point, it is more like a logic puzzle (Like Dethy or Texas Justice) as opposed to a behavioral analysis game (Like regular mafia.) Given that is the case, that almost screams to me breaking this game is fully on the table and allowable. This is even more so with scum not knowing for sure if they are scum or not. The way this game is written, it seems as if there is always a chance that a low % scum player right now could become scum, while the high % scum player right now could become town depending on how night actions fall.
B) Just like you, I am all for it, but we have to be real careful about PM quoting, which is not that hard to do.
C) This goes hand in hand with my B answer. I don't mind, but again PM quoting is gonna make this a pain in the ass to pull off.
Hey guys, time to apologise! I haven't broken the game at all. If anyone really cares I can explain what I thought would work (so you don't think I was just trying to blindly take control).
In short, though, I thought NKing people removed their odds of being the role that was NKed, but that's not the case. It just means they're dead in the worlds where it was the case.
I'm liking the graph idea, but it's worth nothing that the left labels should only read alpha. If somebody is lynched and their wave function collapses as alpha, it means none of use except that person has performed any NKs so far.
In terms of dead percentages... they're only a rough indication of increasing likelihood of the person being mafia if they're alive. Unfortunately, if I understand the rules of the game correctly, we can still lynch corpses.
Not much more to say for the moment. All my grand plans, even before I thought I'd broken the game, had the model of the game wrong. As such, grand reassessment is needed before I can post much of use (although when it comes to this sorta stuff I'm pretty good at feeding off of other people's ideas, so hopefully discussion sparks something in me!)
Sorry again... time to go back to my corner...
As per the rules, the worlds in which one of you is cop are guaranteed to contain a towny Art. Given that your investigation returned town, the worlds where you're cop and he's scum have now been erased.
A) The way I am seeing this game at this point, it is more like a logic puzzle (Like Dethy or Texas Justice) as opposed to a behavioral analysis game (Like regular mafia.) Given that is the case, that almost screams to me breaking this game is fully on the table and allowable. This is even more so with scum not knowing for sure if they are scum or not. The way this game is written, it seems as if there is always a chance that a low % scum player right now could become scum, while the high % scum player right now could become town depending on how night actions fall.
B) Just like you, I am all for it, but we have to be real careful about PM quoting, which is not that hard to do.
C) This goes hand in hand with my B answer. I don't mind, but again PM quoting is gonna make this a pain in the ass to pull off.
While I agree it's a logic puzzle, I'm not convinced the ideal solution for the individual comes down to 'playing as towny and hope the odds go my way'. As such, until I've had a bit more time to consider things, I won't be giving my percentages...
I'm liking the graph idea, but it's worth nothing that the left labels should only read alpha. If somebody is lynched and their wave function collapses as alpha, it means none of use except that person has performed any NKs so far.
Totally misinterpreted the labels - please disregard these comments!
Round-robin shooting ensures that we have perfect information of nightkills since we know how dead everyone is. If anyone's dead% doesn't increase, then we know who the alpha and the beta are, because the alpha has just shot the beta and it has failed.
No-lynch ensures that we don't kill the alpha or the beta. Without both alive, we cannot break the game.
Everyone should remain alive until at least day 8 under this setup (except possibly me and Arti), ensuring that the real cop will know who s/he is and who the mafia is, should we be unlucky and not find the alpha/beta after 8 days.
Round-robin shooting ensures that we have perfect information of nightkills since we know how dead everyone is. If anyone's dead% doesn't increase, then we know who the alpha and the beta are, because the alpha has just shot the beta and it has failed.
I don't really consider this 'breaking the game'. This is just giving everybody the same odds of being mafia/town than any other game with these numbers (non-quantum, obviously), but guaranteeing that town win.
Also, it's quite possible that somebody's dead % will change by <1% (and atlseal's info is all rounded, so we wouldn't notice it), due to them being killed in a bunch of worlds but also the number of worlds decreasing in an unpredictably large way (eg. somebody with a high cop percentage getting a scum result on somebody with a low scum percentage - this decreases the worlds more than expected).
Also, with the end goal being that town win, if people notice their percentages sliding towards scum it's in their interest to frame themselves as scum and be lynched early while they still have a decent chance of being town (the winning team). Any strategy that requires total cooperation won't ever work, based on the nature of being killed instead of cooperating being a favourable choice.
Hmm. Maybe... The problem is that as we become the actual full quantum locked scum later in the game, we'll be handing "them" the game, if we're all trying to be town at the moment.
Also, I take it that a grip of people with access to Alpha Scum shot me. Because I know for as close to a fact as I can that one of them is Arcadic, I'll:
Vote Arcadic <--not an RVS vote, as I think my death percentage is high because someone with a high scum percentage targetted me. Because I know he will be one of them (Night Zero grudge shot without a doubt), my vote will not move.
Feel free to vote me for it. It looks as I'm likely doomed anyway.
I shot you because i thought you'd actually use the information it provided instead of just OMGUS me because you believe i hate you or something stupid. You and Seppel now have more information than everyone else, and that's why i targeted you both.
I copped Seppel and got Scum.
Round-robin shooting ensures that we have perfect information of nightkills since we know how dead everyone is. If anyone's dead% doesn't increase, then we know who the alpha and the beta are, because the alpha has just shot the beta and it has failed.
No-lynch ensures that we don't kill the alpha or the beta. Without both alive, we cannot break the game.
Everyone should remain alive until at least day 8 under this setup (except possibly me and Arti), ensuring that the real cop will know who s/he is and who the mafia is, should we be unlucky and not find the alpha/beta after 8 days.
Potential caveat. I have a 0% chance of being Beta Scum. (This did not change at all over night 0) We, through our round-robin, could kill another players chance at being the Alpha to zero. We then are left with more players than potential alpha mafia, therefore destroying this process of elimination. (12 alive only 11 shots) Lynching them isn't an option, since there is still a chance they have a chance of being beta. We can't determine for sure if the plan is followed at that point. Going half-way into this plan and having that occur would be a lot of wasted days and would likely only serve to help the scum identify themselves as being scum.
Oh and since Art? asked, my VT town % went up vs my cop % which went down after being shot last night.
then we know who the alpha and the beta are, because the alpha has just shot the beta and it has failed.
It's not this easy either. -All that tells us is that no game states exist where the first player is the alpha, but the second player isn't the beta. It doesn't tell us how likely the first player is to be the alpha at all, nor how likely the second is to be the beta independently of the first.
For example, player A could be VT in 99 remaining worlds, and Alpha mafia in 1 world with player B as the beta. If player A shoots player B, the kill fails, but that doesn't mean A is alpha and B is beta -in fact, that only accounts for a 1% chance, but it's a dependent relationship.
For example, player A could be VT in 99 remaining worlds, and Alpha mafia in 1 world with player B as the beta. If player A shoots player B, the kill fails, but that doesn't mean A is alpha and B is beta -in fact, that only accounts for a 1% chance, but it's a dependent relationship.
That is incorrect because if the kill fails, then those 99 worlds are eliminated from our possibilities. If the kill succeeds, then that 1 world is eliminated.
Potential fix: We can't prove that you have a 0% chance of being beta scum. Even if you are, we still need to hunt for your beta.
That is incorrect because if the kill fails, then those 99 worlds are eliminated from our possibilities. If the kill succeeds, then that 1 world is eliminated.
Reply to the more important caveat, the fact we could lose a player with a probability of being Alpha, therefor removing the ability to see who's the alpha/beta by doing this over 8 nights.
That is incorrect because if the kill fails, then those 99 worlds are eliminated from our possibilities. If the kill succeeds, then that 1 world is eliminated.
If the kill fails, it has no effect on the 99, because the kill doesn't even exist in those worlds.
If the kill succeeds... well, it can't. The only world where it exists, it has an invalid target.
The way it works is like this: -If there were 98 worlds where A is VT, 1 where A is alpha and B is beta, and one where A is Alpha and C is beta then, when A targets B with a kill:
If the kill succeeds, the A/B world is eliminated, since B can longer be A's beta. If the kill fails, the A/C world is eliminated, since B must now be A's beta. Neither affects the 98, because there is no NK in those worlds anyway.
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This isn't your daddy's game of mafia. In fact, this will be different from every other game of mafia you've played before. Inspiration for this game came from here. You and all your fellow players are locked in not just one game, but a possible space of many games. It is up to you to determine the best course of action to not only position yourself to be on the winning team, but to also allow your team to win.
Da' Rules:
Player List:
Seppeltordeck (100% Dead) Town CopLuckNorrisVoid (100% Dead) Vanilla TownReplacements:
"What makes you think they're faulty?"
"It says there are two people down by the accelerator. That isn't exactly good for your health while they're running experiments." Bob briefly thought back to the safety training courses he was required to take before becoming one of the safety and security officers of the LHC. Everyone knew that while the warning lights were lit and flashing, you don't want to be anywhere near the device. 'Radiation kills' one of the animated characters on the screen warned. "No ****," Bob mumbled under his breath.
Bob was brought back to attention with the sound of klaxons blaring. He knew this couldn't be good. The stability of the system was dropping like a rock and he felt the ground vibrate just as all the video screens went black.
Adrian shouted, "Holy ****, we've even lost communication with the labs. What the hell is happening?"
It is currently N0. No posting in the thread, if you have a chance of being the cop or alpha mafia please send your night actions to me within the next 3 days. D1 can begin once I've received all night actions.
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Note: All percentages are rounded to the nearest percent.
-Should we claim actions now?
Good news, however, my odds of being mafia started off low and now they're even lower.
Vote KCC for asking a question and not taking the lead.
We all what happens when you assume...
Come join us in the MTGSalvation chat ||| My trade thread. ||| My Personal Modern Blog: The Fetchlands
How do you know they went lower?
I'm trying to figure out the math and odds on each. Where I started and see who said what they did.
By the way I targetted Seppel. Couldn't ever read you in a game and can't trust you either.
Also if I'm reading correctly on somethings with the set up it seems the kill % is based on how likely someone is to be scum.
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
You hidding something there by not answering the question?
vote: Tanarin
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
-That's not why I shot you seppel.
You caught me, I'm scum. -Maybe.
@PB: The average chance of someone being cop is about 8%. The average odds of someone being scum is about 17% (8% A, 8% B). And the average chance of being VT is 75%. Anything higher than those is above average, and anything lower is below. -And yes, the death % you inflict should be based on the odds of you being mafia A.
So why did you shot Seppel? And are you saying the scum that is possible scum thinks they are town???? How do you explain the 3% death on one player then?
mafia win/lose record
town (12) 6/6
mafia (2) 2/0
Cult (1) 1/0
3rd party (0) 0/0
mafia record
Also known at mafiascum as farside22
Also, I take it that a grip of people with access to Alpha Scum shot me. Because I know for as close to a fact as I can that one of them is Arcadic, I'll:
Vote Arcadic <--not an RVS vote, as I think my death percentage is high because someone with a high scum percentage targetted me. Because I know he will be one of them (Night Zero grudge shot without a doubt), my vote will not move.
Feel free to vote me for it. It looks as I'm likely doomed anyway.
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
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Nope, completely random vote. Had to get it out of my system. Also didn't think the question was serious at this point. Apparently I was wrong on that one.
Unvote
Anyway, I shot at Artifice and inspected Seppel, with a town result.
@Artifice: I am worried about that too. Maybe we need a sacrificial lamb here to take a player off the board and up the odds. I am willing to volunteer unless someone has a better idea.
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Whoever shot WG looks really good. -Very low odds of that player being scum (baring an irrationally high B%). And of course the possible scum are possible town: that's the whole point of this game.
The only players who should be playing like scum are those with an A+B% over 25% or so.
That's the only issue I've been able to see too. And since my scum odds are low enough that I'd rather bank on me being town, I'll help.
-If I'm the cop, Art is town.
This is entirely possible, but we'll know better how much you may be on to something once everyone claims there kills.
EDIT: The percentages have been corrected
Lemme guess: I'm at 68% dead?
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
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Someone with a low cop% (under 4) should step forward as today's sacrificial lynch.
Tonight we have everyone shoot at a different assigned player.
Anyone whose death% doesn't change tomorrow, we lynch whoever was supposed to shoot them for not following directions.
However, if everyone plays along nicely, then we lynch whoever's target died the most for being most likely scum.
-We repeat each night and win. Thoughts?
I also don't understand your supposed "plan" KCC. If the players are assigned other players to shoot, how would one target die the most? Also, who would assign who shoots who? If the assigner is scum, then they could easily flip this game on it's ass and we would all lose.
Unless I am interpreting it incorrectly it doesn't sound like a good plan...
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I think we both had the right intention as we're both dangerous as scum, but we both got "town leaning" Schroedinger's boxes, Seppel.
My Alpha and Beta are Down from 10's for both to 9 and 3, respectively.
No. This is just arbitrary and allows those that are more likely to cultivate a scum win to manipulate the results. It is similar to how we as scum manipulated the votes in Ender's Mafia.
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
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Also, Art's B% plummeting makes sense. -With so many people shooting him, the number of possible scumbuddies he could have dropped severely. I'm sure seppel's did as well.
@LN: One would die the most, because the person shooting them is the most likely scum. And killing the next in line on the player list is a fine way to assign it. It shouldn't matter how we approach it, the results end up the same.
If anybody including our illustrious mod wants be to sub out and not spoil the party, I'm happy to
One more point before I go (at work so can't stay long):
I shot WG (total random I swear, don't hold it against me!). While in my specific case the low kill percentage relates to low alpha mafia percentage, the other possibility when people do low percentage kills is that their target is was their buddy in a disproportionately high number of worlds (which don't exist anymore, but still...)
Those of you who shot Seppel through fear of him playing a pro mafia game - you've increased his odds of being mafia, and given yourself 0% odds of being his buddy, so your logic's a bit backwards...
And so what about the guy who shot you then? (Namely me. Don't hate me).
Also my beta mafia went up slightly, from 8 to 9%. My alpha remains at 6%.
Does anyone have numbers that high?
That's the only issue I've been able to see too. And since my scum odds are low enough that I'd rather bank on me being town, I'll help.
No, all you know is that he's part town. I copped him and got the same result btw. Somehow bumped my cop to 9%. I'm 76% VT.
I liked this. I also think we should all claim percentages and actions.
And how is that?
If this wasn't quantum I'd lynch you.
Vote: Audinho for Basic 55.
As per the rules, the worlds in which one of you is cop are guaranteed to contain a towny Art. Given that your investigation returned town, the worlds where you're cop and he's scum have now been erased.
Well if I say then I ruin it - want to see if people are ok with that first.
If this wasn't quantum, you'd be dead
Shot Artifice and copped Seppel (Town).
I suspect that people who shot Seppel (and perhaps Artifice) are more likely to have a higher base Alpha percentage. Assuming that Seppel had 4 people shoot him and Artifice 5 (given the remainder), the average for percentage increase for Seppel is 9.75%, while Artifice is 9%.
It is very probable that not being shot increases your Beta percentage. Vanilla Town percentage remains static. Conversely, if you were shot, your Beta percentage would decrease for obvious reasons.
If you copped someone and received town, your cop percentage would most likely increase. Mafia percentages for whoever you targeted would probably decrease, as would cop percentages.
Did anyone have a change in their Vanilla Town percentage?
Because I'm curious when the strategy turns from lynching valid candidates to lowest risk of losing a Cop... and when/if I decide this game is unfun. For the moment I'm intrigued.
We need to determine if there's a best case lynch today, and I think NeedMoreGimmick is possibly on the right track, but going about it wrong. Are all the percentages equal or not? Because someone sho shot me might be much more likely scum, either before or after shooting me.
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
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At the end of the day, we have to decide if we all want to play as town or not. I feel like an ideal strategy should give you better odds than just the odds that you're currently town.
In isolation, shooting somebody makes it less likely you're scum. It doesn't have any effect on the worlds in which you're not scum, and it eliminates the worlds in which your target was your beta. However, because everybody did various shenanigans throughout the night, we've all reduced the total number of worlds, so the interactions is what will cause people's odds to shift either way. It's almost impossible at this stage to deduce much from what we're given, except a rough estimate at who shot who (and we can just claim this anyway).
Anyway, if nobody objects, I can make town win. The problem is it forces us to out 2 people of our choosing as scum, which may seem unfair, so
1) I would like to be assured I'd stay town and win
2) I have an idea of how to determine these people, but it involves telling the idea in the first place.
Still not sure how people feel about it the idea of breaking the game this early though...
Compiling list of percentage-affecting game states now...
Hmmm. Ok, lets organize.
In everyone's next post, please state whether you would like to:
A) "break" the game as Chicken is suggesting
B) claim all percentages we have so far
C) claim all percentages moving forward
All the jockying will happen in the later game. Because of this, I'm commiting to winning as town, since my chances otherwise are super slim obviously. I commit to this at a level of Lynch All Liars.
My answers are:
A) Not into making this unfun, but curious what you will suggest. Mark me as a "maybe"
B) I'd love to, although we have to be very careful about role PM quoting, I guess
C) Yes, I'd like to do this.
Johnny, born and raised. Always lookin' for the Next Level Combo. Thanks to Bornover of FHLS for the banner!
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My certainty = 100% - [the chance that somebody rolled 0% scum (which I assume is infinitesimally small) * 1/12 (the chance that we choose that person as one of our outs for scum)]. Even then, it just means it takes a day longer.
A) My problem is I'd rather not because then we haven't really played anything and I go down in history as the new guy who ruins fun
However, if people agree to doing it and agree that I be made town, then I'm 100% to win. Any other strategy I play from that point then becomes less than ideal...
B) Once again, I think everybody just quoting percentages and lynching 'most scummy' or 'least cop' is no more relevant than doing that in any game. You could start a game, say 'nobody look at their role PMs and we'll lynch randomly', and end up having similar odds of winning. If you wanted to roll a D12 and declare yourself the winner on > 2, why come here? (note: ruining the strategising element of the game is why I don't like A, and am happy to sub out/be today's lynch candidate (7% cop with a scum hit))
C) You mean don't say them now, but say them starting as of tomorrow? Will this make anybody play with a different strategy to B?
Wanting people to claim is a scum tell - totally valid in this I swear!
A) I don't want the game to be broken, allthough I'm intrigued as to how it can be done. If it is 100% certain, then it feels like winning in a video game with a cheat code :/
B) This seems like a useful tool.
C) Same question as CF, does this mean claim what we have gotten and all future stuff, or just all future stuff? Because I don't see much point in the latter if we lack the present to compare with.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
4 people shot Seppel
1 person shot KCC
1 person shot Wheat
1 person shot Arcadic
Seppel successfully killed Arti.
Tanarin successfully killed Arti.
Luck successfully killed Arti.
NMA successfully killed Arti.
Pinky successfully killed Seppel.
KCC successfully killed Seppel.
Arti successfully killed Seppel.
Chickenfish successfully killed Wheat.
Wheat...?
Arcadic...?
Zach...?
Audinho...?
I'm pretty sure the way we break the game is just by killing people round-robin until someone doesn't die.
A) The way I am seeing this game at this point, it is more like a logic puzzle (Like Dethy or Texas Justice) as opposed to a behavioral analysis game (Like regular mafia.) Given that is the case, that almost screams to me breaking this game is fully on the table and allowable. This is even more so with scum not knowing for sure if they are scum or not. The way this game is written, it seems as if there is always a chance that a low % scum player right now could become scum, while the high % scum player right now could become town depending on how night actions fall.
B) Just like you, I am all for it, but we have to be real careful about PM quoting, which is not that hard to do.
C) This goes hand in hand with my B answer. I don't mind, but again PM quoting is gonna make this a pain in the ass to pull off.
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In short, though, I thought NKing people removed their odds of being the role that was NKed, but that's not the case. It just means they're dead in the worlds where it was the case.
I'm liking the graph idea, but it's worth nothing that the left labels should only read alpha. If somebody is lynched and their wave function collapses as alpha, it means none of use except that person has performed any NKs so far.
In terms of dead percentages... they're only a rough indication of increasing likelihood of the person being mafia if they're alive. Unfortunately, if I understand the rules of the game correctly, we can still lynch corpses.
Not much more to say for the moment. All my grand plans, even before I thought I'd broken the game, had the model of the game wrong. As such, grand reassessment is needed before I can post much of use (although when it comes to this sorta stuff I'm pretty good at feeding off of other people's ideas, so hopefully discussion sparks something in me!)
Sorry again... time to go back to my corner...
Ah, I see. That makes sense.
I started off at 78% and went down to 76%.
A) Meh, on the fence.
B) Absolutely
C) Absolutely
I shot KCC.
While I agree it's a logic puzzle, I'm not convinced the ideal solution for the individual comes down to 'playing as towny and hope the odds go my way'. As such, until I've had a bit more time to consider things, I won't be giving my percentages...
We do round-robin shooting and we no-lynch.
Round-robin shooting ensures that we have perfect information of nightkills since we know how dead everyone is. If anyone's dead% doesn't increase, then we know who the alpha and the beta are, because the alpha has just shot the beta and it has failed.
No-lynch ensures that we don't kill the alpha or the beta. Without both alive, we cannot break the game.
Everyone should remain alive until at least day 8 under this setup (except possibly me and Arti), ensuring that the real cop will know who s/he is and who the mafia is, should we be unlucky and not find the alpha/beta after 8 days.
Proposed actions:
Seppel shoots Tanarin
Tanarin shoots Luck
Luck shoots NMA
NMA shoots Pinky
Pinky shoots KCC
KCC shoots Arti
Arti shoots Chicken
Chicken shoots Arcadic
Arcadic shoots Wheat
Wheat shoots Zach
Zach shoots Audinho
Audinho shoots Seppel
Seppel cops Zach
Audinho cops Wheat
Zach cops Arcadic
Wheat cops Chicken
Arcadic cops Arti
Chicken cops KCC
Arti cops Pinky
KCC cops NMA
Pinky cops Luck
NMA cops Tanarin
Luck cops Seppel
Tanarin cops Audinho
Unvote, vote no lynch.
I don't really consider this 'breaking the game'. This is just giving everybody the same odds of being mafia/town than any other game with these numbers (non-quantum, obviously), but guaranteeing that town win.
Also, it's quite possible that somebody's dead % will change by <1% (and atlseal's info is all rounded, so we wouldn't notice it), due to them being killed in a bunch of worlds but also the number of worlds decreasing in an unpredictably large way (eg. somebody with a high cop percentage getting a scum result on somebody with a low scum percentage - this decreases the worlds more than expected).
Also, with the end goal being that town win, if people notice their percentages sliding towards scum it's in their interest to frame themselves as scum and be lynched early while they still have a decent chance of being town (the winning team). Any strategy that requires total cooperation won't ever work, based on the nature of being killed instead of cooperating being a favourable choice.
Damnation studios!
Zodiac - Doublevoter - Loss
Starcraft - VT - Loss
The Office - Mafia Rolecop - Win
1984 - VT - Vigged - Loss
Quantum - Lynched D1 Alpha Mafia - Win
Mean Girls - Town Masonizer Replaced into lynch - Loss
Startrek Voyager - Backup JOAT - Loss
Boardgame - VT- Loss
Ghost Story - VT - (replaced in)
Smalltown Animaniacs - Delay Doc - Loss
Kill Bill - One-shot Vig - Loss
Magical Girls -
Mr Potato Head -
Work hard, play casually
I shot you because i thought you'd actually use the information it provided instead of just OMGUS me because you believe i hate you or something stupid. You and Seppel now have more information than everyone else, and that's why i targeted you both.
I copped Seppel and got Scum.
Potential caveat. I have a 0% chance of being Beta Scum. (This did not change at all over night 0) We, through our round-robin, could kill another players chance at being the Alpha to zero. We then are left with more players than potential alpha mafia, therefore destroying this process of elimination. (12 alive only 11 shots) Lynching them isn't an option, since there is still a chance they have a chance of being beta. We can't determine for sure if the plan is followed at that point. Going half-way into this plan and having that occur would be a lot of wasted days and would likely only serve to help the scum identify themselves as being scum.
Oh and since Art? asked, my VT town % went up vs my cop % which went down after being shot last night.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
It's not this easy either. -All that tells us is that no game states exist where the first player is the alpha, but the second player isn't the beta. It doesn't tell us how likely the first player is to be the alpha at all, nor how likely the second is to be the beta independently of the first.
For example, player A could be VT in 99 remaining worlds, and Alpha mafia in 1 world with player B as the beta. If player A shoots player B, the kill fails, but that doesn't mean A is alpha and B is beta -in fact, that only accounts for a 1% chance, but it's a dependent relationship.
Yeah, unfortunately anyone who gets a guilty result is automatically less likely to be a cop.
The more I'm thinking about it, this setup will be almost impossible to "break" without knowing how many different games we are playing.
Potential fix: We can't prove that you have a 0% chance of being beta scum. Even if you are, we still need to hunt for your beta.
That is incorrect because if the kill fails, then those 99 worlds are eliminated from our possibilities. If the kill succeeds, then that 1 world is eliminated.
Reply to the more important caveat, the fact we could lose a player with a probability of being Alpha, therefor removing the ability to see who's the alpha/beta by doing this over 8 nights.
My wife was on MTV with this video.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUutIZg2EpU
If the kill fails, it has no effect on the 99, because the kill doesn't even exist in those worlds.
If the kill succeeds... well, it can't. The only world where it exists, it has an invalid target.
The way it works is like this: -If there were 98 worlds where A is VT, 1 where A is alpha and B is beta, and one where A is Alpha and C is beta then, when A targets B with a kill:
If the kill succeeds, the A/B world is eliminated, since B can longer be A's beta. If the kill fails, the A/C world is eliminated, since B must now be A's beta. Neither affects the 98, because there is no NK in those worlds anyway.