A year and a half ago, the Future Gadget Laboratory experimented with time travel, causing a series of events that end with SERN controlling the world by 2036.
Through cunning and great aptitude, the members of the Future Gadget Laboratory averted that fate.
But they could not bring themselves to dismantle Future Gadget #8: Phone Microwave (name subject to change).
This would prove to be a major mistake.
1. Bold your Votes/unvotes please. Failure to do so will result in the Vote/Unvote not occurring.
2. Do not quote PM's or I will have to Modkill you. Any use of PM-style information may result in the same. If unsure, ask first. Also, do not request someone to quote their PM doing so will get you Modkilled.
3. Please Unvote before casting a new Vote. It is not required, but does help.
4. You may Vote No lynch, and a majority of these votes will end the day without a death.
5. Please do not edit or delete your posts no matter how stupid a mistake you made. This will get you modkilled. This may be your only warning.
6. Once you’re eliminated from the game, please stop posting in the thread. A simple “bah” post is okay. Anything beyond a “bah” post will be reported. Please clear your “bah” post with me prior to posting it. The only exception is if you say “bah” and nothing more.
7. Once you are eliminated from the game, please refrain from talking about the game with anyone, especially for those who are still active in the game. If you have any questions regarding this, please PM me.
8. If you ever have vacation or limited access for more then a 72 hour period, you will be required to post within the thread of the amount of time you will gone. Failing to do so will result in prodding and possible replacement. If a replacement cannot be found then I will Modkill that character.
9. If you have a night action, please make sure to send a PM to me prior to the deadline. If you do not send the night action by the deadline, then you will have no night action.
10. Lynches require a simple majority of votes. When a player has reached said majority, that player will be lynched and any Unvote afterwards will not be counted.
11. When requesting a prod or vote count, please make sure to bold the request to make it easier for me to see. I will give vote counts when I see fit.
12. Do not flame, troll, or otherwise disrespect players beyond normal mafia bounds. If it gets out of hand, I may be forced to modkill.
13. Have fun. This is not optional.
The town win condition is:
You win when all threats to the town are dead.
The mafia win condition is:
You win when the mafia is equal to in number or outnumbers the town.
Ready for Ragnarok
1. Iso
4. The Most Curious Thing
5. Kosakosa
8. Pikachugundam
11. Zenjo
12. Cyouni (r. Gideon_Jura)
Riding with the Valkyries
6. AtheistGod (Lynched Day 1 - Kiryu Moeka, Town Vigilante)
9. Guardman (Killed Night 1 - Dr. Nakabachi, Town Vanilla)
3. 7hawk77 (Lynched Day 2 - Itaru Hashida, Mafia Roflcopter)
2. kpaca (Killed Night 2 - Amane Suzuha, Town Time Traveller)
7. Deaths_Vampire (Lynched Day 3 - Ruka Urushibara, Town Vanilla)
10. Cantripmancer (Killed Night 3 - Faris Nyannyan, Town Doctor)
Gideon_Jura failed to respond. Cyouni replaces him effective immediately.
Night 0 will last for approximately 12 more hours.
February 3rd 20:04:34
The Future Gadget Laboratory is empty as a result of a flight by most of its members to America.
*click*
An intruder opens the door. Walking across the room cautiously and with a pistol drawn despite the empty state, a shrouded figure makes its way toward the Phone Microwave (Name Subject to Change).
The figure holsters the gun and types out a message on its phone.
The Microwave starts.
*click* *BZZZZZZZZZZZTRRT*
Photoshop credits to jomafro, image concept by 5pb/Nitroplus
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
With a wrenching feeling, all of you end up in the Future Gadget Laboratory. This time the change was so profound all of you felt it.
The TV turns on to the familiar sight of Alpacaman. Unfamiliar, however, is the voice that comes from the TV:
"I am from the year 2036. I know what some of you are thinking by me saying that, but no. I am not John Titor.
A D-mail was sent from the Future Gadget Laboratory, altering the past significantly. Through SERN's obfuscations, I am unable to even determine who is or isn't a SERN agent, otherwise I would just tell you.
This worldline, the omega worldline, is different from the worldlines you knew from before. Because of the D-mail, SERN's influence ran far deeper this time. Those who were your friends in other worldlines may well be SERN agents this time around.
Tread carefully, and ferret out the agents. The very fate of the world hangs in the balance."
The voice stops, but the ever-vigilant eyes of Alpacaman remain.
It is now Day 1! With 12 alive, it is 7 to lynch!
All votes that occurred during Night 0 will not be counted.
I'm supposed to claim vanilla today. Which is kind of weird, because by definition since I have to claim vanilla I can technically not be vanilla. Very paradoxical, eh?
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
2011: Best Mafia Performance (Individual) - Best Newcomer
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Rational investigation of Guardman. These are my assumptions and conclusions.
He currently has a 3/4s liklihood at random that he is town.
Possibilities:
Guardman is town and is claiming vanilla because he has to claim something for his power role
motive:He doesn't want a power role this round, but does in the future.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy, he is killed at night by scum to deter him getting a power role later or neither and obtains his power role.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla because he has to claim something for his power role
motive:He doesn't want a power role this round, but will in later rounds.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy or he obtains his power role which gives the scum more power.
Guardman is town and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role so he doesn't get lynched.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy or he gets killed at night or he survives.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role and asserts that he is a townie if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched or survives.
He has no reason to claim this if he was lying about the power role and is town. If he gets the miller role and gets inspected by a cop, he will come up guilty furthering scummyness. So why come forward at all? Wouldn't it bet better to keep quiet and get one at random? Without talking he would draw less hate and be less likely to get lynched, night killed or investigated.
Based on these assumptions, I would like to use Bayes theorem to calculate the likelihood of scum.
So first off P(A)= Probability of being scum = 1/4
P(B) = Probability of claiming roll and acting weird = 100%, you did it
P(B|A) = Probability of role claiming given that he is scum = 2/3 (Assuming there is no reason to fabricate this lie as a town and given each posibility equal weight)
p(A') = Probability of being town = 3/4
So whats the probability of him being scum given that he role claimed p(A|B) = [P(B|A)*P(A)]/[P(B|A)*P(A)+P(B|A')*P(A')]
Probability that this man is scum given his role call (based on my assumptions) is 10 out of 24 which is about 41.6% which is much higher than the base random 25%.
I don't see a probability of me telling the truth... but I sort of got lost half way through the post.
So for the confused masses what exactly are you trying to say other than I am 41% scum?
He is roughly saying that you claiming your role in this manner is more likely a behavior of scum than a behavior of town. The numbers don't mean much because they are only his guesses.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
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Through cunning and great aptitude, the members of the Future Gadget Laboratory averted that fate.
But they could not bring themselves to dismantle Future Gadget #8: Phone Microwave (name subject to change).
This would prove to be a major mistake.
2. Do not quote PM's or I will have to Modkill you. Any use of PM-style information may result in the same. If unsure, ask first. Also, do not request someone to quote their PM doing so will get you Modkilled.
3. Please Unvote before casting a new Vote. It is not required, but does help.
4. You may Vote No lynch, and a majority of these votes will end the day without a death.
5. Please do not edit or delete your posts no matter how stupid a mistake you made. This will get you modkilled. This may be your only warning.
6. Once you’re eliminated from the game, please stop posting in the thread. A simple “bah” post is okay. Anything beyond a “bah” post will be reported. Please clear your “bah” post with me prior to posting it. The only exception is if you say “bah” and nothing more.
7. Once you are eliminated from the game, please refrain from talking about the game with anyone, especially for those who are still active in the game. If you have any questions regarding this, please PM me.
8. If you ever have vacation or limited access for more then a 72 hour period, you will be required to post within the thread of the amount of time you will gone. Failing to do so will result in prodding and possible replacement. If a replacement cannot be found then I will Modkill that character.
9. If you have a night action, please make sure to send a PM to me prior to the deadline. If you do not send the night action by the deadline, then you will have no night action.
10. Lynches require a simple majority of votes. When a player has reached said majority, that player will be lynched and any Unvote afterwards will not be counted.
11. When requesting a prod or vote count, please make sure to bold the request to make it easier for me to see. I will give vote counts when I see fit.
12. Do not flame, troll, or otherwise disrespect players beyond normal mafia bounds. If it gets out of hand, I may be forced to modkill.
13. Have fun. This is not optional.
1. Iso
4. The Most Curious Thing
5. Kosakosa
8. Pikachugundam
11. Zenjo
12. Cyouni (r. Gideon_Jura)
Riding with the Valkyries
6. AtheistGod (Lynched Day 1 - Kiryu Moeka, Town Vigilante)
9. Guardman (Killed Night 1 - Dr. Nakabachi, Town Vanilla)
3. 7hawk77 (Lynched Day 2 - Itaru Hashida, Mafia Roflcopter)
2. kpaca (Killed Night 2 - Amane Suzuha, Town Time Traveller)
7. Deaths_Vampire (Lynched Day 3 - Ruka Urushibara, Town Vanilla)
10. Cantripmancer (Killed Night 3 - Faris Nyannyan, Town Doctor)
In Valhalla's Dugout (5)
1. Void
2. SharkFinnigan
3. Seppel
4. Rhand
5. infectiousbaloth
Front Row Seats in Asgard (7)
1. EtR
2. Cellion
3. TheEndIsNear
4. Prophylaxis
5. Megiddo
6. Macius
7. Caex Kothar
Day 1 will begin when all players have confirmed.
(10PM CST 2/5/13: Gideon is the only player who has not confirmed. He has been given 24 hours to respond.)
Night 0 will last for approximately 12 more hours.
February 3rd 20:04:34
The Future Gadget Laboratory is empty as a result of a flight by most of its members to America.
*click*
An intruder opens the door. Walking across the room cautiously and with a pistol drawn despite the empty state, a shrouded figure makes its way toward the Phone Microwave (Name Subject to Change).
The figure holsters the gun and types out a message on its phone.
The Microwave starts.
*click* *BZZZZZZZZZZZTRRT*
Photoshop credits to jomafro, image concept by 5pb/Nitroplus
It's super effective!
Cyouni is frozen!
Vote kpaca try and use Mirror Coat on me now!
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Too Fast for me checked and you already posted!
Vote Iso For Try Harding.
It's super effective!
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Vote W_G for try to interrupt our healtly fun.
Reading is tech!
Dear god.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
The TV turns on to the familiar sight of Alpacaman. Unfamiliar, however, is the voice that comes from the TV:
"I am from the year 2036. I know what some of you are thinking by me saying that, but no. I am not John Titor.
A D-mail was sent from the Future Gadget Laboratory, altering the past significantly. Through SERN's obfuscations, I am unable to even determine who is or isn't a SERN agent, otherwise I would just tell you.
This worldline, the omega worldline, is different from the worldlines you knew from before. Because of the D-mail, SERN's influence ran far deeper this time. Those who were your friends in other worldlines may well be SERN agents this time around.
Tread carefully, and ferret out the agents. The very fate of the world hangs in the balance."
The voice stops, but the ever-vigilant eyes of Alpacaman remain.
It is now Day 1! With 12 alive, it is 7 to lynch!
All votes that occurred during Night 0 will not be counted.
Justice shall prevail!
I'm supposed to claim vanilla today. Which is kind of weird, because by definition since I have to claim vanilla I can technically not be vanilla. Very paradoxical, eh?
* Iso used Hyper Beam!
* Iso has to recharge!
Vote Guardman obv. falseclaim
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Well of course it is because I can't have to do something while still being vanilla. That's why I said it is paradoxical.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Vote AtheistGod
Outdated Mafia Stats
Jokes in RVS?
* TMCT used DoubleSlap!
* Hit 5 times!
Unvote
Vote Iso cus I'm on a mainstream feeling today.
Well I do have French Canadian ancestors, but I would rather not talk about that.
I'm sorry for your loss.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I'm more sorry for what I have.
Vote Guardman
Don't explain the joke.
...herpes?
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Gen. 1 Hyper Beam > Gen. 2+ Hyper Beam
I didn't know there was a joke.
Relatives...
But that's incest.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Yes.
I think we are having two different conversations here.
I think you're having two different conversations, here.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
Well I had the choice of claiming vanilla or miller today and if I didn't claim one it gets randomized.
{мы, тьма}
2012: Best (False?) Role Claim - Worst Town Performance (Group) - Best Mafia Performance (Group) - Best SK Performance - Best Overall Player
2013: Best Non-SK Neutral Performance
2014: Best Town Performance (Individual) - Best Town Performance (Group) - Most Interesting Role - Best Game - Best Overall Player
2015: Worst Mafia Performance (Group) - Best Read
2016: Best Town Performance (Group) - Best Town Player - Best Overall Player
I have to claim it in the first post of the day, or else it gets randomized.
Do you find out which one you get if you don't claim?
I don't know.
I am vanilla for today. I don't know what I'll be tomorrow. But judging from my PM I will have different choices to claim each day.
What gets randomized?
vote: guardman
I do not believe you.
Which role I get. If I don't choose one I get one of the choices at random.
Um... what don't you believe?
He currently has a 3/4s liklihood at random that he is town.
Possibilities:
Guardman is town and is claiming vanilla because he has to claim something for his power role
motive:He doesn't want a power role this round, but does in the future.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy, he is killed at night by scum to deter him getting a power role later or neither and obtains his power role.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla because he has to claim something for his power role
motive:He doesn't want a power role this round, but will in later rounds.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy or he obtains his power role which gives the scum more power.
Guardman is town and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role so he doesn't get lynched.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched for acting scummy or he gets killed at night or he survives.
Guardman is mafia and is claiming vanilla and is lying about having to claim to gain power role
motive:He wants the town to value him as a power role and asserts that he is a townie if he is a miller he can keep to that story if a cop inspects and finds scum.
Possible outcomes:He is lynched or survives.
He has no reason to claim this if he was lying about the power role and is town. If he gets the miller role and gets inspected by a cop, he will come up guilty furthering scummyness. So why come forward at all? Wouldn't it bet better to keep quiet and get one at random? Without talking he would draw less hate and be less likely to get lynched, night killed or investigated.
Based on these assumptions, I would like to use Bayes theorem to calculate the likelihood of scum.
So first off P(A)= Probability of being scum = 1/4
P(B) = Probability of claiming roll and acting weird = 100%, you did it
P(B|A) = Probability of role claiming given that he is scum = 2/3 (Assuming there is no reason to fabricate this lie as a town and given each posibility equal weight)
p(A') = Probability of being town = 3/4
So whats the probability of him being scum given that he role claimed p(A|B) = [P(B|A)*P(A)]/[P(B|A)*P(A)+P(B|A')*P(A')]
Verdict: [(2/3)*(1/4)]/[(2/3)*(1/4)+(1/3)(3/4)]
=10/24
Probability that this man is scum given his role call (based on my assumptions) is 10 out of 24 which is about 41.6% which is much higher than the base random 25%.
Outdated Mafia Stats
So for the confused masses what exactly are you trying to say other than I am 41% scum?
He is roughly saying that you claiming your role in this manner is more likely a behavior of scum than a behavior of town. The numbers don't mean much because they are only his guesses.