The following points are based on analyzing what we know about the RTR and GTC guild packs. (Basically, there are eight possible packs per guild each with a specific set of cards).
NOTE: When I say [GUILD] opponent, I mean someone who has received a [GUILD] guild pack, not someone who happens to be playing those colors.
1. You will only see one of any given card from RTR or GTC.
For example, your Gruul opponent cannot have more than one Slaughterhorn in hand. This means that once he uses it, you do not have to play around that trick anymore.
2. Guild affiliated cards will only appear in the corresponding guild booster.
4. Some cards are more likely to appear in a given guild.
Your Boros opponent has a 1/8 chance of opening Act of Treason, but your Gruul opponent has a 5/8 of opening an Act of Treason. Thus, you should probably play around your Gruul opponent having Act of Treason (if you can afford it), but not your Boros opponent.
Your Orzhov opponent will have at least two pieces of removal from GTC, but your Boros opponent will likely only have one.
I've only provided a few examples, but looking at the actual guild packs data helps. I've limited my analysis to GTC mostly because we don't have all the RTR guild packs.
I wonder if this information is still accurate. It would seem that there would be at least one more booster for each guild with the promo card from the previous releases as the rare. At a minimum, it seems valuable to look at the old guild packs before choosing a guild as you get some sense of what is likely.
Personally, I will be bringing a copy of the document to compare with my guild packs to see if it is accurate. If it is I will use the well thought out analysis you have provided.
I have already used it to change what guilds I will be playing. I am playing Orzhov twice because I value the removal and extort highly and the rares are decent and I am playing Boros once because the rares are clearly superior.
This thread is really great. I was just starting to think about this, but only the obvious (If you see Blind Obedience, there's no reason to play around Merciless Eviction because there can only be 1 rare from GTC and 1 from RTR), but your analysis is really helpful. I'll have to go through the guild packs again and look more at commons/uncommons like you did.
foils can produce a rare double card from the first two sets. probably not worth considering though
I'm pretty sure you can't get foils in the guild boosters. Since they're predetermined, it's not like a foil can get randomly inserted. Does anybody have hard info on this?
I'm pretty sure you can't get foils in the guild boosters. Since they're predetermined, it's not like a foil can get randomly inserted. Does anybody have hard info on this?
All the Guildpacks had foils last time (the promo). These ones shouldn't.
Not too sure about the last one. Wizards may have decided to mix and match their packs?
I doubt they would go through that effort. Right now eight boosters of 15 cards each (including the guildgate) gives 120 cards which is one shy of a sheet. This suggests that each guild has a print sheet, and creating new guild packs would require making new print runs for all ten guilds. That's reordering 1200 cards! And then making sure each pack is balanced! Again, very unlikely.
Junk is called Junk because decks with those colors are mostly good cards working together; no REAL synergy between colors. Except for couple of archetypes.
So assuming you have a 3/10 chance of getting a gate in your 3 colors in the dgm packs, you're going to get 3.2 gates on average at the prerelease.
Assuming his 3.2 average is correct, I wanted to get thoughts on how this impacts the Gatekeepers.
In a scenario where you get the average (3) number of gates and go first, there's only a 6.5% chance you hit two gates on turn four, 7.8% on turn 5, and 9.3% on turn 6. If you hit 4 gates, your odds increase to 11.3%, 13.2%, and 15.2%, respectively. You need to have 6 gates just to have a 1/5 chance of putting out two gates by turn four.
a) Someone double-check my math, but...
b) Does any of this even matter?
Assuming his 3.2 average is correct, I wanted to get thoughts on how this impacts the Gatekeepers.
a) Someone double-check my math, but...
b) Does any of this even matter?
I would argue with the premise. While its true you have a 3/10 chance of opening a gate in two of your colors, you have a 9/10 of opening a gate that only has one of your colors. So I think the question is more like "is it worth playing a rakdos guildgate in your esper deck to turn on your gatekeepers?"
I think a better question is "am I going to open a sealed pool in this format that doesn't want to play every gate and splash all five colors?" and the answer is "not very often".
I think a better question is "am I going to open a sealed pool in this format that doesn't want to play every gate and splash all five colors?" and the answer is "not very often".
Agree. It's more likely though that I'll play 3 main and splash the 4th color for that slight off-color bomb. So gates should be played even over basics given gatekeepers, etc
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It seems like fixing is pretty important here. Does anyone know what's the likelihood of gatecreeper vine or axebane guardian showing up in rtr guilds?
If this is correct, this is very interesting data. I'm surprised at the frequency some guilds get certain cards. Dimir is pretty much guaranteed that unblockable 2/2....Gruul is pretty much going to have an act of treason somewhere. Part of me can't believe the breakdown is this simple.
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NOTE: When I say [GUILD] opponent, I mean someone who has received a [GUILD] guild pack, not someone who happens to be playing those colors.
1. You will only see one of any given card from RTR or GTC.
Thus, your Boros opponent does not have Scorchwalker. Your Simic opponent will not put Hands of Binding on Cloudfin Raptor. Your Azorius opponent will never Eyes in the Skies at EOT.
Of course, your Boros opponent may pick up bloodrush from DGM, so you have to play around that, but not any bloodrush cards from GTC.
The more of your opponent’s deck you see, the easier it is to determine exactly what guild packs he received.
Some other notable pairs:
Aurelia, The Warleader, Cinder Elemental, Prophetic Prism
Firemane Avenger, Mugging
Wrecking Ogre, Skaarg Guildmage
Merciless Eviction, Orzhov Keyrune
Your Orzhov opponent will have at least two pieces of removal from GTC, but your Boros opponent will likely only have one.
I've only provided a few examples, but looking at the actual guild packs data helps. I've limited my analysis to GTC mostly because we don't have all the RTR guild packs.
Do you guys have any other good tips/advice?
Link to all possible guild packs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apln2HM4aSGbdDJ6MFk5cTBjb09sXzFWdndhTkx2V1E#gid=0
(Thanks brine!)
Link to the analysis I've done on GTC packs:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqU0SlS5q2TYdGFQZ3d3Z1FJVW9sbHo2VExyMFJaTnc&usp=sharing
Personally, I will be bringing a copy of the document to compare with my guild packs to see if it is accurate. If it is I will use the well thought out analysis you have provided.
I have already used it to change what guilds I will be playing. I am playing Orzhov twice because I value the removal and extort highly and the rares are decent and I am playing Boros once because the rares are clearly superior.
I'm pretty sure you can't get foils in the guild boosters. Since they're predetermined, it's not like a foil can get randomly inserted. Does anybody have hard info on this?
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
My Trade Thread!
All the Guildpacks had foils last time (the promo). These ones shouldn't.
Also, is there some place that accurately lists all the possible pack possibilties?
http://mythicspoiler.com/dgm/guildpacks.html
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/silvestri-says-navigating-the-dragons-maze-prerelease/
He even links to one of the spreadsheets!
I doubt they would go through that effort. Right now eight boosters of 15 cards each (including the guildgate) gives 120 cards which is one shy of a sheet. This suggests that each guild has a print sheet, and creating new guild packs would require making new print runs for all ten guilds. That's reordering 1200 cards! And then making sure each pack is balanced! Again, very unlikely.
Anyway, good thread.
Can someone spell this out for me? I gather that Borzhov is just Boros and Orzhov, but what are the others?
Naya = GRW
Borzhov = WBR
Junk = WBG
How did the Bant and Junk names come to be?
For Junk, see:
http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/deck/1088
http://www.channelfireball.com/home/in-development-the-many-flavors-of-junk/
Naya and Bant are official names for their color combinations; they come from the Alara block. Others are:
:symb::symr::symg: : Jund
:symu::symb::symr: : Grixis
:symw::symu::symb: : Esper
Junk is called Junk because decks with those colors are mostly good cards working together; no REAL synergy between colors. Except for couple of archetypes.
Assuming his 3.2 average is correct, I wanted to get thoughts on how this impacts the Gatekeepers.
In a scenario where you get the average (3) number of gates and go first, there's only a 6.5% chance you hit two gates on turn four, 7.8% on turn 5, and 9.3% on turn 6. If you hit 4 gates, your odds increase to 11.3%, 13.2%, and 15.2%, respectively. You need to have 6 gates just to have a 1/5 chance of putting out two gates by turn four.
a) Someone double-check my math, but...
b) Does any of this even matter?
I would argue with the premise. While its true you have a 3/10 chance of opening a gate in two of your colors, you have a 9/10 of opening a gate that only has one of your colors. So I think the question is more like "is it worth playing a rakdos guildgate in your esper deck to turn on your gatekeepers?"
Agree. It's more likely though that I'll play 3 main and splash the 4th color for that slight off-color bomb. So gates should be played even over basics given gatekeepers, etc
—Lazav
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10th at SCG: Syracuse (2014), GP:NJ Last-Chance Grinder Winner (2014):: Former Legacy Mod