Edit: It appears that this thread has been claimed by higher powers. I guess you should post on the topic rather than what I originally posted.
I have two hypotheticals and I just want to hear everyone's opinion on them.
1.) Suppose Wizards came up with a new idea for a block and MaRo forced them to print it. The player population however doesn't like it for whatever reason and it somehow fails to be profitable. What would WotC do in response to this? Consider that there are two more sets in the same block that have yet to be released to the public, but have already been finalized. Also, what if the block after it had considerable ties to it as well.
2.) "When" Magic "eventually" dies, what will the diagnosis be? (What will have killed it?)
I would say, as a general response to both of your questions, that the failure of a single set or block (see: Mercadian Masques) won't cripple the game as a whole, because the inherent diversity of the Magic formats means that there's no guarantee that all people will stop playing.
1 - Popular opinion stated that the common thought among players was that Legions stank on ice, yet that didnt stop them doing Scourge....
Incidentally, you're expecting FOREsight from a group that didnt realise Affinity was broken beyond belief until a YEAR AFTER IT HIT THE MARKET!?
2 - this one's easy. Lack of trees/cardboard. Since i highly doubt they use recycled stuff for it unless WOTC goes into the Plantation biz they'll eventually ru out of stuff to print cards on.
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"Between your faith, and my Glock 9mm....I'll take my Glock." -- End Of Days
I would say, as a general response to both of your questions, that the failure of a single set or block (see: Mercadian Masques) won't cripple the game as a whole, because the inherent diversity of the Magic formats means that there's no guarantee that all people will stop playing.
Yes, that's true, but while Masques wasn't liked as much as, say, Invasion, I wouldn't say it was unprofitable.
I suppose one could argue that WotC is incapable of printing a set that could fail on a grand scale. And they probably wouldn't release a set if there weren't enough buyers out there to buy it....
2 - this one's easy. Lack of trees/cardboard. Since i highly doubt they use recycled stuff for it unless WOTC goes into the Plantation biz they'll eventually ru out of stuff to print cards on.
??? Is mutual assured destruction out of the picture?
It would take one horribly broken set, or a series of horribly broken sets, for Wizards to lose a lot of magic players. But since MaRo really seems to know what he's doing at the helm, I don't expect anything like this to happen...ever. His replacement may not be as good as MaRo was, but he will make sure the game doesn't go under by following in MaRo's footsteps.
Ok, I've finally had it. From now on, ANY AND ALL DISCUSSION ABOUT WHY OR WHY NOT MAGIC IS DYING WILL BE IN THIS THREAD ONLY! Behold, the creation of the "Official 'Why Magic Is/Was/Will Be Dying' Thread"!
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"...because without beer, things do not seem to go as well."
As Kamigawa and Ravnica showed, Wizards will make a few mistakes once in a while, but they have the ability to bounce back. People will always say that it's dying after some stunt like the purple cards becoming legal, but the game is very resilient. I can't see that far in the future to see Magic's death, but it might be wild.
The one current thing I am seeing is the fact that Wizards promotes all these big tournaments and trys to get the newer players hyped up for them, when the players either 1. dont care or 2. need to spend weeks of time learning strategies, testing, and working about their deck in order to ever see this side of Magic past Regionals I guess. The one thing that may be a hinder right now is the fact that they are pushing big tournaments to get players to play much tournaments, while newer players are hearing about these, then heading to one and seeing the "real side of competitive magic" and being discouraged from playing.
They won't stop making magic unless they start losing money by printing cards.
The success so far shows this will never happen, until the human race is extinct. If anything, I will always play it... go ahed, stop, less competition for me.. .jk
As Kamigawa and Ravnica showed, Wizards will make a few mistakes once in a while, but they have the ability to bounce back. People will always say that it's dying after some stunt like the purple cards becoming legal, but the game is very resilient. I can't see that far in the future to see Magic's death, but it might be wild.
m3h!! Magic isn't dying. Its just some people's interest is. I enjoyed the excellent Block Constructed environment of Kamigawa. People act like they couldn't come up with any good decks with cards from Kami. Magic players are pretty lucky. At least more than one deck can win at higher level tournaments. In Yu-Gi-Oh you can look at the top 8 of any given and everyone has the same deck! Ok...one guy will have a different deck but the other 7 will say he lucksacked. Yu-Gi-Oh is what's dying. Konami only cares about $$ and they keep putting out subpar product. WoTC seems willing to at least consider the desires of the people who are buying their products. Bah...don't let me get started about YGO! *lol*
In Yu-Gi-Oh you can look at the top 8 of any given and everyone has the same deck! Ok...one guy will have a different deck but the other 7 will say he lucksacked. Yu-Gi-Oh is what's dying. Konami only cares about $$ and they keep putting out subpar product.
QFT. Exactly why I quit YGO (that and about ten other reasons as well). It has now become entirely luck-based, everyone plays the exact same deck and there is little to no strategy. They turned it into a little kid's game with crappy artwork and stupid card names (Swift Birdman Joe :sweat:), they made a new anime for it that is worse than pokemon...the list goes on.
Magic, on the other hand, is much different and much, much better. Standard has never been as diverse as it is now. Some newer players and some budget players may be discouraged by the new dual lands, but we do have karoos, the new card Terramorphic Expanse, and the somewhat cheap painlands. As far as the purple reprints go, I'm glad they're standard legal, and I'm glad we get one in each pack. Nothing that was completely broken was reprinted, just some solid cards (Shadowmage Infiltrator), some fun cards (Pirate Ship!!!!), and some crap cards (Squire). It's balanced, and we get a second chance at a good rare in our packs if we happen to pull a moonlace for our TS rare or something. The reprints are hard enough to get with one in each pack, so that most of the old versions will retain their value, and may even go up in value because they will be legal in standard. I also like the new foil distribution. I also think the fact that Wizards server crashed at midnight for each preview card shows that people are excited about Magic and TS in general, and I personally love TS. Magic is currently the most popular TCG in the world (with VS following in second, I think), and I think it will stay that way, unless the World of Warcraft TCG proves to be amazing. Magic has also set a precedent for many other TCGs, and many of them borrow mechanics and rules from Magic.
ouch. i hope not. online magic doesn't do it for me.
Agreed, I can't handle MtGO too much. I make way too many misclicks. In paper Magic it's easier for me to survey the board and read my opponent.
I truly don't see Magic dying though. Even after the huge influx of Fallen Empires, the once third set of the Ice Age block, MM and many other "power down" sets, Magic still lived on. Richard Garfield truly invented an inventive game. I find it amazing that such a design is still around after so long. I don't believe Magic will ever die. I know I'll be playing it late into my years and I hope to show my new Nephew how to play when he starts school. (I taught a couple 6 and 8 year olds how to play portal. All they need is some Math skills and they're good to go :D.)
While I'm glad Garfield invented Robo Ralley, I'm glad WoTC turned him down and asked for a card game to be played between D&D games only to find out it took people away from them ;).
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"Nou aru taka wa tsume wo kakusu" (the hawk with talent hides its talons) - Japanese Kotowaza
Even if the current line of paper/digital magic were to die, there are still millions of cards and millions of players already out there - they can entertain themselves quite readily with the cards already in print.
The way I see Magic dying is if Hasbro drives them into the ground, which I don't see happening because Hasbro is a fairly healthy company.
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I started playing back in Arabians and people were saying that MTG would shrivel up and die ever since the beginning. People complained about Legends and said that large expansions would drive out the collectors since it was too much to keep up with, but clearly that didn't come to pass. People said that Fallen Empires would sink the game, but all that expansion meant was that new people could get into the game and play a focussed deck without spending a mint (kinda like Coldsnap, come to think of it). People complaining about Timeshifted cards... reminds me of everyone who complained about Chronicles (or Renaissance for you European readers). The more things change, the more things stay the same. As a uber-Johnny all I can say is that if you think an expansion stinks (and I mean ANY expansion, including stuff like Homelands) it only shows that you don't know how to build a creative deck that exploits weakness and makes a strength of it. That's the thrill of Magic, and why I don't think it will die out so long as people enjoy strategy games.
Look at Games Workshop. They've been around for decades. There's little reason to assume Magic won't do the same.
I don't think there's enough cause to justify the statement that Magic will eventually die. It will die when Wizards stops printing it. As it's their prime source of income, they won't. If, however, they treated it poorly enough, or ran out of ideas, that might drive it into the ground.
In fact, I think that's the most probable cause for Magic's death: running out of cards to print. It's nearly impossible in theory, but you have to consider all the limits on design. Sure, they could print a Lava Axe for R, but that wouldn't be conducive to playing environments.
And even then, we'll still have Vintage and Legacy.
Is it just me or does magic seem to fair poorly here in the US then compared to the international scene where magic players actually have cheering fans? LOL
Also, remember when magic was on ESPN? Sure we have PODcast today, but it wasn't the same as surfing channels then seeing someone tap to play a creature with your family. Thats better then watching football for me (if it wasn't the bad/awful commentary: "Nice Play!," "Ohh, Bad Play!")
I'm not saying Magic is dying or dead or going to be dead. What I'm implying is that culture has devalued the competitiveness and importance of magic. Being on ESPN meant that the game was taken seriously, but now after the onsluaght of pokemon and yugioh, magic no longer has that seriousness appeal to other people. People say chess should be an Olympic Sports, I say Magic should be a sport, period.
I think the only thing that could cause the end of magic in the near future would be a global depression, akin to that of the 1920's. And I can remember reading somewhere that there is a possibility of a depression by the end of the decade. Here's hoping that's wrong.
Has anybody here heard of L5R (Legend of the 5 Rings)? My ex plays it and says it is better than Magic (he plays both) and that it will run Magic into the ground. I disagree with him solely on the fact that before I met him, I had never heard of L5R, whereas there are adds and even commercials on TV for Magic. Does anyone else share in his oppinion?
Also, I agree with everyone who has mentioned the kiddie card games out there. If anything is a threat to Magic, it is those games. They are simplified and produced to appeal to the mass market. Yet, when I'm sitting in the lounge playing Magic at 2 am there is always at least one person who staggers over (usually drunk) and is like 'Hey, is this like Pokemon?' I want to scream every time. All these tcg bandwagon hoppers are what is really hurting the game.
Even after the huge influx of Fallen Empires, the once third set of the Ice Age block,
Minor nitpick: Homelands was the adopted "third set" of the Ice Age block, not Fallen Empires. Ice Age, Alliances, and Homelands were the poorly-matched trilogy, with Homelands recently being replaced with Coldsnap.
Regarding the "running out of paper" suggestion: Don't be ridiculous. Trees are a natural, renewable resource. If properly managed, we will never run out. We will run out of the oil to ship the cards long before we run out of the paper to print them.
Now, on to the topic itself. Magic will "die" at some point. It is inevitable. The opposite of "never" is "forever," and people routinely underestimate how long "forever" is. "Friends," Pee Wee Herman, and the Atari 2600 were all immensely popular at one point. But all good things come to an end. They get stale, or are replaced by something better.
There is only so much they can do with Magic. Personally, I would find it a little depressing if it turned out that Magic is the best mankind can come up with for a CCG. I mean, with all the creative, energetic folks working in the gaming industry, did we really peak back in 1994? Are you saying that that was it? That was the pinnacle of gaming? We'll never come up with anything better? I would be utterly shocked if that turned out to be so.
Another point to consider is the players themselves. As players age, they will eventually get tired of the game. Hundreds of thousands of people have quit Magic already. The reason it is still popular is because even more people have started. The Magic players of today are not the same people who were playing the game back in 1994 (well, OK, maybe a few have been around the whole time). They are new players who just picked up the game in the past couple of years. What I'm getting at is, if for whatever reason, Wizards is unable to sustain a new stream of players as attrition continues to claim people who outgrow the game, then the game will decline and eventually fizzle out.
Also, the stores must be considered. They continue to support Magic and host tournaments as long as it remains profitable for them. If for whatever reason it moves from the black column to the red column, then the stores will instead shift their support to whatever latest-and-greatest product generates more revenue for them.
I don't see Magic dying off anytime soon. But when it happens, I predict it will happen quite quickly. It could be due to a sudden move by Wizards, such as deciding to reprint cards from the reserved list (at Hasbro's insistence), causing enraged collectors to quit in droves. It could be a hot new game released by a competitor. It could be a new, completely unrelated fad. But most likely, it will be a combination of these factors. Maybe in a few years, as the creative well runs dry, Wizards cranks out a couple stinker sets in a row, sprinkling in some gimmick to try and boost interest, but that backfires and alienates the older players or something. Time will tell. I only hope us collectors see it in time to recoup most of our investment, and that the intervening years are as fun as they've been up until this point.
Minor nitpick: Homelands was the adopted "third set" of the Ice Age block, not Fallen Empires. Ice Age, Alliances, and Homelands were the poorly-matched trilogy, with Homelands recently being replaced with Coldsnap.
Regarding the "running out of paper" suggestion: Don't be ridiculous. Trees are a natural, renewable resource. If properly managed, we will never run out. We will run out of the oil to ship the cards long before we run out of the paper to print them.
Now, on to the topic itself. Magic will "die" at some point. It is inevitable. The opposite of "never" is "forever," and people routinely underestimate how long "forever" is. "Friends," Pee Wee Herman, and the Atari 2600 were all immensely popular at one point. But all good things come to an end. They get stale, or are replaced by something better.
There is only so much they can do with Magic. Personally, I would find it a little depressing if it turned out that Magic is the best mankind can come up with for a CCG. I mean, with all the creative, energetic folks working in the gaming industry, did we really peak back in 1994? Are you saying that that was it? That was the pinnacle of gaming? We'll never come up with anything better? I would be utterly shocked if that turned out to be so.
Another point to consider is the players themselves. As players age, they will eventually get tired of the game. Hundreds of thousands of people have quit Magic already. The reason it is still popular is because even more people have started. The Magic players of today are not the same people who were playing the game back in 1994 (well, OK, maybe a few have been around the whole time). They are new players who just picked up the game in the past couple of years. What I'm getting at is, if for whatever reason, Wizards is unable to sustain a new stream of players as attrition continues to claim people who outgrow the game, then the game will decline and eventually fizzle out.
Also, the stores must be considered. They continue to support Magic and host tournaments as long as it remains profitable for them. If for whatever reason it moves from the black column to the red column, then the stores will instead shift their support to whatever latest-and-greatest product generates more revenue for them.
I don't see Magic dying off anytime soon. But when it happens, I predict it will happen quite quickly. It could be due to a sudden move by Wizards, such as deciding to reprint cards from the reserved list (at Hasbro's insistence), causing enraged collectors to quit in droves. It could be a hot new game released by a competitor. It could be a new, completely unrelated fad. But most likely, it will be a combination of these factors. Maybe in a few years, as the creative well runs dry, Wizards cranks out a couple stinker sets in a row, sprinkling in some gimmick to try and boost interest, but that backfires and alienates the older players or something. Time will tell. I only hope us collectors see it in time to recoup most of our investment, and that the intervening years are as fun as they've been up until this point.
I don't know if this has occurred to anyone, but coupla thoughts along these lines:
1. It's hard to really say if Magic is dying, or will die soon, because it is the pioneer of CCGs and probably the most readily recognized of all of them. What is the 'natural history' of a successful CCG on the market? Nobody really knows, because they're novel enough that there isn't a lot of historic precedent to point to as evidence that Magic is, or is not, dying. In other words, if Magic were to jump the proverbial shark, what would that shark look like? Judging from prerelease attendance numbers, we haven't seen it yet. That's not to say it's not out there, just that we don't know it when we see it.
2. Magic and CCG's in general were born into a culture of transition, a market whose demographics and raison d'etre may have changed, or disappeared. The Internet was not an integral part of any game, at least not in the sense of "a marketable line of gaming products". AD&D had hit a relative slump at the ripe age of 20, and was no longer the recreation of choice for its target market. MMORPGs weren't on the scene yet. The emphasis was still on IRL interactive games, and a small portable customizable card game was perfect to bridge the kitchen table gamers with the take-it-with-you school hall duelers. The principles of lasting card worth, customizability, continuing novelties, and portability have helped keep MTG in the market.
So what's different? Perhaps that original demographic is turning away; IRL gaming has fallen away with the failure of brick-and-mortar stores; MMORPGs compete acutely with MODO, which tries to complement IRL gaming but is much more accessible to some, and much less accessible to others. The Internet is not only our card store of choice, but also has canonized the content, if not the method, of competitive strategy. On the plus side, MTG is expanding into more and more countries, and the number of registered DCI players is steadily growing.
What does that mean for MTG? It's hard to say. One thing's obvious. MTGO may ultimately become MTG, for all intents and purposes. If a game's strength is based on number of matches and boosters sold, then MTGO is clearly stronger by far than paper Magic. Tix and boosters cost relatively the same everywhere in the world; markups due to local distributor policy and trade agreements don't apply. Theoretically, MTGO is available 24/7 to accommodate all timezones, all lifestyles, and all formats. It's portable, but in a different way: instead of bringing a deck, you find a computer and a connection, and install some software, and you're set. Paper Magic can't keep up, and the cost to manufacture, package, and distribute cards this way may become absolutely unprofitable and unsustainable as more and more people find themselves using MTGO and even Apprentice for their gaming needs.
Well, we have some who say paper Magic lends a special social aspect to the game, and I agree. This will be missed. I don't think anyone realizes it, but it's a bigger part of the game than most people are willing to admit, and it is one of the main reasons people still don't have MTGO. Also, there are design constraints to MTGO that make certain types of mechanics impossible to implement, because of programming issues. Sadly, exciting new mechanics have been scrapped altogether because of this issue alone. However, the meticulous timings and rules application capable with MTGO has opened up other design space; namely, more complicated mechanics requiring mental math or keeping track of a busy stack, and what's on it, is easier than ever because you can refer to the MTGO interface to help you keep things sorted out as you proceed. Not necessarily an unmixed blessing, as slow play still applies, so the most complicated mechanics will still be unfeasible for time reasons; but there is potential to be explored.
How soon can we expect phasing out of paper Magic? Maybe in the next 1-2 years, if the idea of doing so is uniformly well-received; I for one would fight it because I stand to lose a LOT unless every card since Alpha is reissued online, AND I can redeem my paper collection for an (insurable and well-documented) identical set online. Even then, what if you're on a train crossing the desolate Siberian steppe, and your laptop battery is dead, or your wireless connection useless, and the only Magic to be had is some guy named Ivan with a box of old Worlds Champs promo decks? Not so far-fetched, and probably a lot closer to home than Siberia.
Has anybody here heard of L5R (Legend of the 5 Rings)?
used to play it, and to be honest it's a dying game. two years ago at GenCon they had a huge area with a large number of players, chanting, hooting, hollering... it was really impressive! but the years since they've kind of been reduced to smaller numbers. thanks in part to AEG chipping off a huge number of staff of course. while the game is fun, it's no where NEAR as intuitive as Magic and certainly is NOT an easy game to learn. most cards have huge amounts of text, and no matter how often you play your deck there is always SOMETHING you end up misunderstanding or mis-reading in your cards. if anything has a shot at de-throning MTG, it's Vs. but even there, it's not nearly as fun of a game.
Noticed that both the tcg's that are downgrading magic are just garbage, pokemon is an awful concept and as for poo gi oh, its a card game within a card game for goodness sake!
What would reall help mtg would be a movie, or even a crapppy anime. Create a kinda kiddie mtg and then move the kids onto the real thing when they're ready for it. I just hope WotC don't screw magic like games workshop screwed warhammer.
Wrong. Even if they did a "magic show" right (by that I mean show the storyline) it would be bad for the game. What wizards is doing now if just fine. Wizards is hyping up the pro-tour showing that magic is a "mental sport". This seems far more appealing to me than some kiddie show.
1.) Suppose Wizards came up with a new idea for a block and MaRo forced them to print it. The player population however doesn't like it for whatever reason and it somehow fails to be profitable. What would WotC do in response to this? Consider that there are two more sets in the same block that have yet to be released to the public, but have already been finalized. Also, what if the block after it had considerable ties to it as well.
2.) "When" Magic "eventually" dies, what will the diagnosis be? (What will have killed it?)
Try not to bring Timespiral into this if you can.
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Incidentally, you're expecting FOREsight from a group that didnt realise Affinity was broken beyond belief until a YEAR AFTER IT HIT THE MARKET!?
2 - this one's easy. Lack of trees/cardboard. Since i highly doubt they use recycled stuff for it unless WOTC goes into the Plantation biz they'll eventually ru out of stuff to print cards on.
I suppose one could argue that WotC is incapable of printing a set that could fail on a grand scale. And they probably wouldn't release a set if there weren't enough buyers out there to buy it....
??? Is mutual assured destruction out of the picture?
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As Kamigawa and Ravnica showed, Wizards will make a few mistakes once in a while, but they have the ability to bounce back. People will always say that it's dying after some stunt like the purple cards becoming legal, but the game is very resilient. I can't see that far in the future to see Magic's death, but it might be wild.
The success so far shows this will never happen, until the human race is extinct. If anything, I will always play it... go ahed, stop, less competition for me.. .jk
Where do you see "Ravnica Failed" in his quote?
But, yeah, color me confused too: I can only assume Wombat's referring to Jitte for Kamigawa, but what was the Ravnica mistake?
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QFT. Exactly why I quit YGO (that and about ten other reasons as well). It has now become entirely luck-based, everyone plays the exact same deck and there is little to no strategy. They turned it into a little kid's game with crappy artwork and stupid card names (Swift Birdman Joe :sweat:), they made a new anime for it that is worse than pokemon...the list goes on.
Magic, on the other hand, is much different and much, much better. Standard has never been as diverse as it is now. Some newer players and some budget players may be discouraged by the new dual lands, but we do have karoos, the new card Terramorphic Expanse, and the somewhat cheap painlands. As far as the purple reprints go, I'm glad they're standard legal, and I'm glad we get one in each pack. Nothing that was completely broken was reprinted, just some solid cards (Shadowmage Infiltrator), some fun cards (Pirate Ship!!!!), and some crap cards (Squire). It's balanced, and we get a second chance at a good rare in our packs if we happen to pull a moonlace for our TS rare or something. The reprints are hard enough to get with one in each pack, so that most of the old versions will retain their value, and may even go up in value because they will be legal in standard. I also like the new foil distribution. I also think the fact that Wizards server crashed at midnight for each preview card shows that people are excited about Magic and TS in general, and I personally love TS. Magic is currently the most popular TCG in the world (with VS following in second, I think), and I think it will stay that way, unless the World of Warcraft TCG proves to be amazing. Magic has also set a precedent for many other TCGs, and many of them borrow mechanics and rules from Magic.
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ouch. i hope not. online magic doesn't do it for me.
i think magic will go on strong until wizrds goes under. iit will a destruction of world economy to stop wizards.
Agreed, I can't handle MtGO too much. I make way too many misclicks. In paper Magic it's easier for me to survey the board and read my opponent.
I truly don't see Magic dying though. Even after the huge influx of Fallen Empires, the once third set of the Ice Age block, MM and many other "power down" sets, Magic still lived on. Richard Garfield truly invented an inventive game. I find it amazing that such a design is still around after so long. I don't believe Magic will ever die. I know I'll be playing it late into my years and I hope to show my new Nephew how to play when he starts school. (I taught a couple 6 and 8 year olds how to play portal. All they need is some Math skills and they're good to go :D.)
While I'm glad Garfield invented Robo Ralley, I'm glad WoTC turned him down and asked for a card game to be played between D&D games only to find out it took people away from them ;).
The way I see Magic dying is if Hasbro drives them into the ground, which I don't see happening because Hasbro is a fairly healthy company.
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I don't think there's enough cause to justify the statement that Magic will eventually die. It will die when Wizards stops printing it. As it's their prime source of income, they won't. If, however, they treated it poorly enough, or ran out of ideas, that might drive it into the ground.
In fact, I think that's the most probable cause for Magic's death: running out of cards to print. It's nearly impossible in theory, but you have to consider all the limits on design. Sure, they could print a Lava Axe for R, but that wouldn't be conducive to playing environments.
And even then, we'll still have Vintage and Legacy.
Also, remember when magic was on ESPN? Sure we have PODcast today, but it wasn't the same as surfing channels then seeing someone tap to play a creature with your family. Thats better then watching football for me (if it wasn't the bad/awful commentary: "Nice Play!," "Ohh, Bad Play!")
I'm not saying Magic is dying or dead or going to be dead. What I'm implying is that culture has devalued the competitiveness and importance of magic. Being on ESPN meant that the game was taken seriously, but now after the onsluaght of pokemon and yugioh, magic no longer has that seriousness appeal to other people. People say chess should be an Olympic Sports, I say Magic should be a sport, period.
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Also, I agree with everyone who has mentioned the kiddie card games out there. If anything is a threat to Magic, it is those games. They are simplified and produced to appeal to the mass market. Yet, when I'm sitting in the lounge playing Magic at 2 am there is always at least one person who staggers over (usually drunk) and is like 'Hey, is this like Pokemon?' I want to scream every time. All these tcg bandwagon hoppers are what is really hurting the game.
Minor nitpick: Homelands was the adopted "third set" of the Ice Age block, not Fallen Empires. Ice Age, Alliances, and Homelands were the poorly-matched trilogy, with Homelands recently being replaced with Coldsnap.
Regarding the "running out of paper" suggestion: Don't be ridiculous. Trees are a natural, renewable resource. If properly managed, we will never run out. We will run out of the oil to ship the cards long before we run out of the paper to print them.
Now, on to the topic itself. Magic will "die" at some point. It is inevitable. The opposite of "never" is "forever," and people routinely underestimate how long "forever" is. "Friends," Pee Wee Herman, and the Atari 2600 were all immensely popular at one point. But all good things come to an end. They get stale, or are replaced by something better.
There is only so much they can do with Magic. Personally, I would find it a little depressing if it turned out that Magic is the best mankind can come up with for a CCG. I mean, with all the creative, energetic folks working in the gaming industry, did we really peak back in 1994? Are you saying that that was it? That was the pinnacle of gaming? We'll never come up with anything better? I would be utterly shocked if that turned out to be so.
Another point to consider is the players themselves. As players age, they will eventually get tired of the game. Hundreds of thousands of people have quit Magic already. The reason it is still popular is because even more people have started. The Magic players of today are not the same people who were playing the game back in 1994 (well, OK, maybe a few have been around the whole time). They are new players who just picked up the game in the past couple of years. What I'm getting at is, if for whatever reason, Wizards is unable to sustain a new stream of players as attrition continues to claim people who outgrow the game, then the game will decline and eventually fizzle out.
Also, the stores must be considered. They continue to support Magic and host tournaments as long as it remains profitable for them. If for whatever reason it moves from the black column to the red column, then the stores will instead shift their support to whatever latest-and-greatest product generates more revenue for them.
I don't see Magic dying off anytime soon. But when it happens, I predict it will happen quite quickly. It could be due to a sudden move by Wizards, such as deciding to reprint cards from the reserved list (at Hasbro's insistence), causing enraged collectors to quit in droves. It could be a hot new game released by a competitor. It could be a new, completely unrelated fad. But most likely, it will be a combination of these factors. Maybe in a few years, as the creative well runs dry, Wizards cranks out a couple stinker sets in a row, sprinkling in some gimmick to try and boost interest, but that backfires and alienates the older players or something. Time will tell. I only hope us collectors see it in time to recoup most of our investment, and that the intervening years are as fun as they've been up until this point.
I don't know if this has occurred to anyone, but coupla thoughts along these lines:
1. It's hard to really say if Magic is dying, or will die soon, because it is the pioneer of CCGs and probably the most readily recognized of all of them. What is the 'natural history' of a successful CCG on the market? Nobody really knows, because they're novel enough that there isn't a lot of historic precedent to point to as evidence that Magic is, or is not, dying. In other words, if Magic were to jump the proverbial shark, what would that shark look like? Judging from prerelease attendance numbers, we haven't seen it yet. That's not to say it's not out there, just that we don't know it when we see it.
2. Magic and CCG's in general were born into a culture of transition, a market whose demographics and raison d'etre may have changed, or disappeared. The Internet was not an integral part of any game, at least not in the sense of "a marketable line of gaming products". AD&D had hit a relative slump at the ripe age of 20, and was no longer the recreation of choice for its target market. MMORPGs weren't on the scene yet. The emphasis was still on IRL interactive games, and a small portable customizable card game was perfect to bridge the kitchen table gamers with the take-it-with-you school hall duelers. The principles of lasting card worth, customizability, continuing novelties, and portability have helped keep MTG in the market.
So what's different? Perhaps that original demographic is turning away; IRL gaming has fallen away with the failure of brick-and-mortar stores; MMORPGs compete acutely with MODO, which tries to complement IRL gaming but is much more accessible to some, and much less accessible to others. The Internet is not only our card store of choice, but also has canonized the content, if not the method, of competitive strategy. On the plus side, MTG is expanding into more and more countries, and the number of registered DCI players is steadily growing.
What does that mean for MTG? It's hard to say. One thing's obvious. MTGO may ultimately become MTG, for all intents and purposes. If a game's strength is based on number of matches and boosters sold, then MTGO is clearly stronger by far than paper Magic. Tix and boosters cost relatively the same everywhere in the world; markups due to local distributor policy and trade agreements don't apply. Theoretically, MTGO is available 24/7 to accommodate all timezones, all lifestyles, and all formats. It's portable, but in a different way: instead of bringing a deck, you find a computer and a connection, and install some software, and you're set. Paper Magic can't keep up, and the cost to manufacture, package, and distribute cards this way may become absolutely unprofitable and unsustainable as more and more people find themselves using MTGO and even Apprentice for their gaming needs.
Well, we have some who say paper Magic lends a special social aspect to the game, and I agree. This will be missed. I don't think anyone realizes it, but it's a bigger part of the game than most people are willing to admit, and it is one of the main reasons people still don't have MTGO. Also, there are design constraints to MTGO that make certain types of mechanics impossible to implement, because of programming issues. Sadly, exciting new mechanics have been scrapped altogether because of this issue alone. However, the meticulous timings and rules application capable with MTGO has opened up other design space; namely, more complicated mechanics requiring mental math or keeping track of a busy stack, and what's on it, is easier than ever because you can refer to the MTGO interface to help you keep things sorted out as you proceed. Not necessarily an unmixed blessing, as slow play still applies, so the most complicated mechanics will still be unfeasible for time reasons; but there is potential to be explored.
How soon can we expect phasing out of paper Magic? Maybe in the next 1-2 years, if the idea of doing so is uniformly well-received; I for one would fight it because I stand to lose a LOT unless every card since Alpha is reissued online, AND I can redeem my paper collection for an (insurable and well-documented) identical set online. Even then, what if you're on a train crossing the desolate Siberian steppe, and your laptop battery is dead, or your wireless connection useless, and the only Magic to be had is some guy named Ivan with a box of old Worlds Champs promo decks? Not so far-fetched, and probably a lot closer to home than Siberia.
used to play it, and to be honest it's a dying game. two years ago at GenCon they had a huge area with a large number of players, chanting, hooting, hollering... it was really impressive! but the years since they've kind of been reduced to smaller numbers. thanks in part to AEG chipping off a huge number of staff of course. while the game is fun, it's no where NEAR as intuitive as Magic and certainly is NOT an easy game to learn. most cards have huge amounts of text, and no matter how often you play your deck there is always SOMETHING you end up misunderstanding or mis-reading in your cards. if anything has a shot at de-throning MTG, it's Vs. but even there, it's not nearly as fun of a game.
Wrong. Even if they did a "magic show" right (by that I mean show the storyline) it would be bad for the game. What wizards is doing now if just fine. Wizards is hyping up the pro-tour showing that magic is a "mental sport". This seems far more appealing to me than some kiddie show.